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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Oh-eight (D): Edwards leads in IA poll

Posted: Thursday, August 30, 2007 8:54 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

A new Time magazine poll of Iowa has Edwards leading at 29%, followed by Clinton at 24%, Obama at 22%, and Richardson at 11%. “For Edwards, the poll has some less welcome news as well. So far, at least, his attempts to portray himself as the real change agent in the race — the one who wants to slam the door on lobbyists and other ‘Washington insiders’ — isn't paying off. Obama beats him by 35% to 25% on the question of who ‘will take on special interests in Washington.’ (Clinton trailed with 19%.) Iowa Democrats seem to like Edwards more for who he is than for what he says; they call him the ‘most likable’ and the one who best understands their concerns, but his toss-out-the-insiders message hasn't stuck.”

CLINTON: “Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign said yesterday that it would give to charity $23,000 it had received from a prominent Democratic donor, and review thousands of dollars more that he had raised, after learning that the authorities in California had a warrant for his arrest stemming from a 1991 fraud case,” the New York Times says. “The travails of Mr. Hsu have proved an embarrassment for the Clinton campaign, which has strived to project an image of rectitude in its fund-raising and to dispel any lingering shadows of past episodes of tainted contributions.”

The LA Times also reports that Hsu said “that he would ‘refrain from all fundraising activities’ until he resolved an outstanding warrant for his arrest stemming from a 1991 criminal case in San Mateo County… Hsu has donated or raised more than $1 million for Democrats and their causes. He served as a ‘bundler,’ rounding up a group of donors and then packaging their checks together. He is a member of Clinton's ‘HillRaiser’ group, individuals who pledged to raise more than $100,000 for her presidential campaign.”

The Wall Street Journal adds that “Clinton and other prominent Democrats scrambled to unload thousands of dollars of contributions from one of the party's leading fund-raisers, amid questions about his fund-raising techniques and news that a warrant for his arrest has been languishing in California since the early 1990s.” 

EDWARDS: Salon writes: “This summer … Edwards has taken a new turn. For the first time in his career, he is running for office by criticizing segments of the Democratic Party, the institution he has long held up as the only hope for restoring economic justice in America.” And the online magazine writes that Edwards has put a new spin on Howard Dean’s “ ‘I'm here to represent the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party.’ Edwards put it this way: ‘We cannot triangulate our way to real change. We cannot compromise our way to real change. But we can lead to real change.’”

OBAMA: In a New York Daily News op-ed, Obama calls for sanctions against Iran and companies who invest heavily in the country and wants to put an end to Bush’s “tough talk.” “The Bush administration and an anonymous senator are blocking a bill with bipartisan support that would ratchet up the pressure on the Iranian regime. It's time for this obstructionism to stop.” He warns that Iran’s going forward with its nuclear program and mentions that Amadinejad “declared that Israel must be ‘wiped off the map.’” In the piece, he also hints he would meet with Amadinejad: “While conventional Washington thinking says we can only talk to people who agree with us, I believe that strong countries and strong Presidents shouldn't be afraid to talk directly to our adversaries to tell them where America stands. The Bush-Cheney diplomacy of not talking to Iran has not worked.”

Per the New York Times, a Web site -- with ties to a prominent GOP donor who was a major backer of radio ads last year linking Democrats with David Duke -- is going after Obama. “Harsh attacks on candidates from sources with murky motivations and support are nothing new in American politics, particularly in presidential campaigns, where the stakes are high and the interested parties are often well heeled and ideologically driven. In the current presidential contest, the ObamaTruth.org project is one of the more sophisticated assaults on a candidate, with downloadable videos titled ‘The Audacity of Barack Obama’ and periodic press releases announcing updates. The Obama campaign declined to comment.”

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Comments

vanreuter, NY NY blathering aimlessly from his perch atop the trash heap proclaims /  "Posting the title of an anti- Senator Obama site that is as reprehensible as any that are dedicated to my personal choice, even used as another in a seemingly unending stream of cheap shots against HER, is in poor taste, and poor judgment."

it's easy to take cheap shots at cheap people, hillary wants to surround herself with criminals because of her rabid lust for money and power, at the same time demanding she be treated as an honest human being, sorry doesn't work that way, her true self is finally being revealed to the masses, a most disgusting self it is
A couple of points.  The polls are meaningless at this point in the race.  Right now, name recognition still plays an enormous part in gaging voter preferences.  In 2004 race, Dean and Gephart were leading the pack in Iowa, through December, 2003.  Second of all, Edwards has been campaigning in Iowa, exhaustively, virtually since the 2004 election, 'as if he were campaigning for governor' (and by the way even though he's not my first choice, I like him).  If he doesn't win in Iowa he might as well call it a wrap.  Thirdly, Edwards would never accept a number two spot on the ticket again nor would he be offered it (look to Bill Richardson, Chris Dodd or even Jim Webb).  The one thing that the pundits say that does carry weight with me is that the voters will weigh experience vs. change (with Clinton, Richardson, Biden and Dodd representing the experience wing and Obama, Edwards and Kucinich representing the change wing - sorry Senator Gravel, I don't know where to place you).  Obviously, it's not so cut and dry as all can lay some claim to both qualities.  Also perceptions of electability will color the voters' choice (i.e. negatives).  
    This is a very fluid race so the coronation process should be put on hold and should not dampen anyone's activity for their respective choices.  After all, conventional wisdom dictates that a feisty campaign for the nomination will strengthen the Democratic candidate for November 2008, whoever it might be.  And this is important because nothing should be taken for granted.
 Although Iowa is not the be all and end all to projecting the outcome of this race , it is nice to see that Barack Obama is holding his own there. It gives me renewed faith in our country, that we have put some old thoughts and ideas to rest.

Obama/Edwards ?
Obama/Dodd ?
Obama/Biden ?
hmmmmm
MK,MO (Sent Thursday, August 30, 2007 1:28 PM)

Please take this in the spirit intended;

The reason why you won't see me responding to your childish taunts, which you apparently confuse with, "rapier-like wit", is not because I can't again expose you as petty, ridiculous, and borderline insane; As  having succeeded in doing so in the past is the impetus for your resentment and priapism towards me, but the fact that just letting your stuff lay out there for all to see, in all it's ugliness, serves me just as well, if not better, than anything I might use in reply.

Please refer to this as my reply to any and all future missives directed towards me by you. You may continue to waste your time on me, but I won't waste any more  on your foolish personal attacks.


Van
Felix - Was Hillary born with a silver spoon in her mouth?  I honestly don't know.  I was under the impression that she had a middle class upbringing.  
Carrie... It depends on who she is talking with that day (her background).
Van,

It truly is sad that I need to clarify that a remark is not an attack. However, the reason is not my own. I believe that the default response to any post directed at any particular person is to assume that it is an attack. That excludes neither you nor myself.

The reason your opinion interests me is because you seem to have an unusually profound respect and admiration for opinion polls. Yet all I ever hear about from you are the ones in which Clinton has a lead. Since you mentioned in your earlier post that you "like it that a poll that shows someone other than senator Clinton in the lead can be, "analyzed", as opposed to, "minimized", or completely discounted", I was curious as to whether you thought this poll was any better/worse than the ones you vehemently adhere to, simply because Edwards was the one leading.

It is unfortunate that a request as simple as this has to be explained over several posts, requiring most of one day, but I suppose that is just the nature of this uninformative beast that fronts as helpful tool for discourse.
Bruce: now,let's be fair: Edward's house is ONLY 28,000 sq. ft.
Let's not imply he's a fat cat, or anything but a true populist. My god, only REPUBLICANS are filthy rich, and live in 30,000 sq.ft. homes: just ask Ted Kennedy
Carry, it is possible that she had a middle class upbringing. Thats a thing that will no longer be possible under bush's plan. By the way in your debates with Seirra SF, you win by a land slide.
vanreuter, NY NY / van that's like the fifth time you told everyone you were no longer going to respond to my postings, can't you remember? have you had any other stroke like symptoms? may want to get that checked out that may explain some of your less than lucid postings. do you really think I could throw down a good rap chiefy, thanks you made my day
Yes Carrie she had a middle class republican up bring. Her father was so frugal he turned the heat of at night.

She was educated in Massachusetts ,Wellesley college and then Law school, we will have a smart President again.
Wasn't it Truman (and later Bill) who said "If you want to live like a Republican, vote Democrat?"  Well, looks like Hillary took it one further and became a Democrat.
GONG! Not Edwards either. He needs to go on the fired list to. His shoe's untied, see! Now look up, shut up, pack up, cause your going up! Amen, in the name of........? Uh! What's his mane again, now? Duh!  
The Nation needs to become better aware, and more intuned. Everyone should read the book,
I, The Electric, The Spirit,
ISBN #, 1-4241-7929-7.
The author, Destin Tanero, from
Chattanooga, Tennessee, has equated the ultimate perception in this binding. It focuses on the political arena. Read it and visit his website:
www.destintanerobooks.com. Do this before you go to vote the next presidential election, scheduled. And currently being rehearsed, in silence.
Nitol.      
Kristian, very well put.  I have my preference for presidential candidate.  I'll vote for whomever is nominated by the Democrats.  That's because I already know that the Republican nominee will favor unending continuation of the war in Iraq, furtherance of the authoritarian agenda, diverting money from public to religious schools, reduction in reproductive rights, expansion of preferential taxation of the wealthy, enshrining the evangelical fundamentalist Christian doctrine as the law of the land in violation of the Establishment clause, and a host of other things that work against not only my own personal interests and beliefs but I believe against the best interests of the United States.
If this is a duplicate, I apologize;

 Josh-

If I characterized you in the same way and with the same words as you have used above, how would you reply?

I don't remember ever calling any poll good or bad based on who was leading, and indeed I list links to all, or most of the polls, having no control or personal stake in their results and don't try to do anything more than to get others to access the sites and hopefully read something while they're there.

As an avowed supporter of Senator Clinton, I post polls that show her leading, but in all honesty, as she indeed does indeed lead most of them, National and State, I don't have to cherry-pick them to find one. In fact, the one I post as a stand alone most of the time, is the daily presidential tracking poll from Rasmussen.

I don't, as you imply, have an, "unusually profound respect and admiration for opinion polls.", but I, the hated (by many here) MSM, and the candidates themselves, use them as the most quantifiable means of gauging their support. What else is there? What else would you suggest we use in their place?

As to your question,

"I was curious as to whether you thought this poll was any better/worse than the ones you vehemently adhere to, simply because Edwards was the one leading."

To even attempt to answer a question posed that way, would validate your erroneous (and to me, like the tone of much of your reply), vaguely insulting, characterization, of me and my postings.

If you want to engage someone in a real dialog, say for example, me, it would behoove one to, at the very least, use neutral language to characterize the other person. maybe you are unaware that your depictions are  less than flattering, maybe you'll think that I'm being overly sensitive, but I'm not kidding. You are an intelligent, well spoken young man, and I would welcome the chance to rise above, "...this uninformative beast that fronts as helpful tool for discourse.", but when the questions are reminiscent ( to me, again) of the old, "When did you stop beating your wife?",  variety, it doesn't do a lot to encourage it

I think polls are, "snapshots", that show you a particular moment in time. An aggregate of several different polls averaged out, is IMO, a more accurate, "snapshot", than any single poll. A series of polls taken over the course of weeks or months, enables you to spot trends and movement. One poll is no better than the other, without context. Despite the fact that I am offended by your choice of words, I don't think that a poll showing John Edwards, Barack Obama, Denis Kucinich, Mike Paul, or anyone else in the lead, is any less valid than the ones that show Hillary Clinton leading. I would hope on your re-assessing your post to me you can see why what your question implies raises my suspicions of your intent, which I stated initially.
I would enjoy having an actual issues and political philosophy-based dialog here with SOMEONE, and hope that we can.

Van
jerry....I wonder if rudy "cheated" on his 2nd wife before he announced his divorce through the media.  
So we have John Edwards, a woman and a black guy..
Ya, I can see how this isn't in any way a win by default..
A smart president H P?????

" Oh My, I didn't know Norman was a Criminal.......

Yeah and the big Dig in Boston came in under Budget LOL.......

let's see here......

H P likes Hillary because she is a woman....
Merle likes her because she is from Illinois......

If Edwards wins in Iowa, he'd better go after Hillary and the Chinese connection
Can you clowns drop the code talk and just say black. I am so tired of obviously racialy challanged pepole useing the word experence, when they realy want to say black. obama has been in elected office longer than clinton and have obviously made better decisions.You people are ridicules.
First it was MK with the gender obsession, now it is ki with the race-obsession. People, please - it is possible to support or not support a candidate independent of his or her gender and/or race.  The only people who look like sexists and racists are people who constantly focus on that themselves.


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