September 2007 - Posts
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
CONCORD, N.H. -- Sen. Barack Obama may still shy away from directly attacking Sen. Hillary Clinton by name, but in Concord today, he referenced her husband to distinguish his experience from those who have spent too many years in Washington.
"I remember what was said years ago by a candidate running for President." He said, “The same old experience is not relevant. You can have the right kind of experience and the wrong kind of experience."
"Well that candidate was Bill Clinton. And I think he was absolutely right."
Obama toughened his lines on why "playing the game in Washington" was detrimental, tying those who taut their beltway credentials to the deaths of thousands of American troops in iraq.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck ToddFormer Speaker Newt Gingrich has decided not to run for president. Gingrich spokesperson Rick Tyler said the conservative icon was given legal advice yesterday that said a presidential campaign would have jeopardized the 527 status of American Solutions should Gingrich had remained involved. Exploring a run for president and continuing his work with American Solutions were legally incompatible and Gingrich chose his American Solutions project. All work that was supposed to go into the presidential exploration has been permanently halted.
While Tyler didn't say it, Gingrich basically was prevented from running for president by John McCain since the McCain-Feingold campaign finance regulations have made mixing political projects very difficult.
From NBC/NJ's Mike MemoliLONDONDERRY, N.H. -- Mike Huckabee let his bass guitar do the talking as he kicked off a weekend trip to the Granite State by jamming at a local bar here.
Huckabee traded his band, Capitol Offense, for local rockers Mama Kicks Friday night as he played before a crowd mixed with supporters and curious onlookers. "Would you like a president who has pardoned Keith Richards?" asked Fred Bramante, Huckabee's state co-chairman, as he introduced the former Arkansas governor. "Would you like a president who knows how to rock?"
The performance at Whippersnappers was a limited engagement; Huckabee played seven songs, including "Born to Be Wild," "Jailhouse Rock" and "Sweet Home Alabama." He didn't know the set list before he got on stage, but seemed to have no trouble keeping up. "I just had to follow them," he said.
Huckabee was joined on stage for three songs by former Boston guitarist Barry Goudreau. Boston's Tom Scholz was also on hand. "I couldn't believe I met those guys," Huckabee said after. "I was like speechless. I really was like a little kid."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
It's not every day that a hunky actor leaves a message on my cell phone.
TV actor and noted eye candy James Denton, better known as the plumber from hit series Desperate Housewives, recorded an audio message for supporters of John Edwards, who he'll be stumping for this weekend along with Edwards' daughter Cate. Per my voice mailbox, he's in Iowa this weekend, and he'd "love to meet" me (and everyone else on the phone list) "along the way."
"It's so important that we have a president who actually listens to the American people," says Denton in the recording, "and who has the backbone to stand up to special interests and fight to make sure every American has the opportunities he had."
"John's has been doing this all his whole life, and that's exactly what he'll do as our president."
Oh, and he looks forward to meeting me this weekend.
Okay, Jim. But I have to be home by ten-thirty or my dad will KILL me.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
Huckabee has just added a stop on his New Hampshire tour this weekend. He's taking Concord hair salon owner David Holden up on his offer to get a $400 haircut, with the proceeds going to autism research. Holden had invited all campaigns to take part after Edwards' expensive grooming was made public earlier this year. Holden said another candidate had expressed interest in coming, but Huckabee will be the first to actually stop by his Main Street Avenue salon when he comes Saturday morning.
"We're pretty excited to have a national candidate come," said Holden, owner of Hair Biz Salon. "We're not interested in poking fun at John Edwards ... The issue really is about giving exposure to the candidates and about giving exposure to autism research." Debra Vanderbeek, Huckabee's New Hampshire campaign manager, said she doesn't know whether Huckabee actually needs a haircut, but wanted to make a contribution.
From NBC’s Joel Seidman
Prosecutors, in their continuing influence-peddling investigation of convicted super lobbyist Jack Abramoff, have issued subpoenas to California Republican Rep. John Doolittle and five of his staff members, seeking office records dating back more than 10 years.
Doolittle's attorney David G. Barger argued that the U.S. Constitution protects Members of Congress from legal inquiries into legislative acts. "These efforts raise serious Constitutional issues going to the very core of our separation of powers created by the Founding Fathers," Barger said in a statement.
Barger said the prosecutors wanted "virtually every record including legislative records for the congressman for the past 11 years."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli and NBC's Chuck Todd
The New Hampshire filing period has just been announced and it is Oct. 15 to Nov. 2nd. This doesn't mean we know what the primary date will be; it simply means that Nov. 2nd is the last day Al Gore or Newt Gingrich can file.
*** UPDATE *** It will likely be another month until we know the date of the New Hampshire Primary.
Secretary of State Bill Gardner announced this afternoon that the filing period for the primary will begin Monday, October 15, and end Friday, November 2. That means Gore and Gingrich, if they want to participate in the first-in-the-nation primary, must make up their mind in the next month.
NH law calls for the filing period to be the first Monday through the third Friday of the November. That’s when it was in 2003, for the primary held January 27, 2004. Gardner said in a phone interview this afternoon that moving the filing period up three weeks does not necessarily indicate that the primary would move likewise. “Nothing will happen now at least until the filing period begins,” Gardner said of his timeline for an announcement.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller
In a memo obtained by NBC News/National Journal, Edwards campaign manager David Bonior tried to reassure supporters that the campaign made the decision to accept public financing on principle, not because it was struggling financially.
"It became clear if we didn't lead by example, no one would," Bonior wrote.
An aide to the campaign expounded: "He's been thinking about it for a while now and watching Clinton on the Sunday shows talk about how public financing was the answer to all this, [we] figured we'd call her bluff."
In the memo, Bonior explained that Edwards would still operate comfortably within its four-state strategy, which the campaign has previously said would cost $40 million.
"This in no way handicaps us in the early primary states, and it does not put us at a disadvantage going into the general election," he wrote.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The Lombardo Consulting Group, of DC, put together pretty comprehensive look at this election based on publicly available survey data since 2005.
Some bullet points from LCG’s report:
-- Hillary Clinton has taken command of the Democratic nomination for President.
--The Obama campaign is becoming less and less relevant with each passing day.
--Rudy Giuliani is running a general election campaign built on his “electability” and no-one on the Republican side is challenging this premise.
--Romney’s advertising-fueled, early lead in Iowa and NH is eroding.
--Thompson may regret going on Leno instead of debating in NH.
--If McCain is to come back from the dead it will happen in New Hampshire.
--The Giuliani campaign won the award for best tactical maneuver in September
--Polling indicates that Republican primary voters are substantially more satisfied with the GOP candidates they have to chose from then they were in July.
--On the other hand, voters still know very little about the candidates.
--A just released CBS News survey shows that job approval rating for the Democratic-controlled Congress is at 27% which is 6% BELOW the President’s job approval rating.
--Michigan matters and the media will amplify this.
--Every eventual GOP nominee since 1980 has won South Carolina. (Yes, they also won either NH or Iowa but the fact is that South Carolina may be more important than either of those two early states.)
From NBC’s Andy Merten
Obama spoke this afternoon at Howard University here in Washington to lay out his policy proposals to address the disparities in America’s criminal justice and voting systems. He was met by a wildly enthusiastic audience at the historically black university’s fall convocation ceremony, and called for new measures to advance civil rights.
“It’s not enough just to look back in wonder of how far we’ve come -- I want us to look ahead with a fierce urgency of how far we have left to go,” Obama said, citing Thurgood
Marshall, Martin Luther
King, Jr., and the everyday people who participated in the Civil Rights Movement.
But on top of the strong and lofty rhetoric that has become a trademark of Obama’s “hope” and “change” message, the Illinois senator used his forum today to present a list of policy proposals to tackle today’s civil rights shortcomings. His approach is five-pronged: (1) rid the Department of Justice of “political cronies” and instead staff the civil rights division with qualified attorneys; (2) create a voting rights division within the DOJ to track and prosecute voter fraud and intimidation; (3) recruit more qualified public defenders by providing college and law school loan compensation as incentives for new attorneys; (4) close the disparity between punishment for crack-cocaine and powder cocaine; and (5) review mandatory minimums, offering first-time, non-violent drug offenders the chance to serve their sentence in rehab instead of jail, when appropriate.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
When veteran field organizer Moses Mercado joined Obama’s campaign, but his hire is “making waves,” the Washington Post reports, because of his “other line of work -- as a lobbyist with Ogilvy Government Relations who is registered to represent several dozen big-name clients, including the National Rifle Association, the Carlyle Group, the Blackstone Group, Monsanto, Pfizer Inc., United Health Group, Sempra Energy and Constellation Energy.”
More: “His resume seems to contradict one of Obama's central themes on the campaign trail -- that as an outsider he can fend of the powerful business interests that he has argued have contributed to the income gap between rich and poor and has frustrated attempts to address issues such as high prescription drug costs and global warming.”
The campaign’s response: “They have not settled on exactly what role Mercado will play, but he will not take on any job until he has ceased his lobbying work. Obama aides said yesterday no one can work on the campaign and still be registered on behalf of clients as a lobbyist, and Mercado will not be exempted from that requirement.”
From NBC/National Journal’s Aswini Anburajan
HANOVER, N.H. -- In a speech to students at Dartmouth University Wednesday, Obama's New Hampshire's State Director told students that a win in the Granite State could be decided by the youth vote. "If we can get two to three thousand extra votes from you guys that could be four to five, six, seven percent of the vote," Matt Rodriguez said.
Rodriguez pushed students to register and vote in New Hampshire and to encourage their friends and dorm mates to do the same. His speech reflected a campaign strategy to increase turnout among young voters in New Hampshire. Obama's campaign has five dedicated college organizers to get out the vote on campuses across the state. Their efforts appear to be paying off at least at Dartmouth, where Obama signs and t-shirts are ubiquitous across the picturesque New England campus.
But the Obama campaign's emphasis on campaigning among college students and young voters has raised eyebrows, especially in Iowa where the youth vote is not seen as a constituency that can be relied upon to turnout. "If it's a battle between
Hillary and Barack, it doesn't take a lot to win -- 30,000 votes,” Rodriguez said. “Think about what a few thousand young people would mean.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
Check out the "Senator A" vs. "Senator B" sidebar in this column by National Journal’s Jonathan Rauch.
Here are two quotes. One by Clinton, one by Obama. Can you tell which senator said what?
Senator A: “The best way to protect our security and to pressure Iraq's leaders to resolve their civil war is to immediately begin to remove our combat troops. Not in six months or one year -- now."
Senator B: "It is long past time that the president ended American combat involvement in Iraq's multisided, sectarian civil war.... It is time to begin ending this war. Not next year, not next month, but today."
Very interesting. This is just one example. There is a whole column of these. Certainly says a lot about how Clinton has blurred the lines and how Obama has not distinguished himself.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Check out American Spectator’s Jennifer Rubin’s take on last night’s GOP PBS forum:
“The GOP candidates don't just avoid Tavis Smiley. With the exception of the omnipresent John McCain and Mike Huckabee (who never met a talk show host he didn't like), the presidential contenders do not frequent the Sunday talk shows, go on network news or subject themselves to interrogation by CNN or MSNBC reporters outside the few debates they have done.
”This is a mistake. Simply put, GOP candidates are ignoring Willie Sutton's advice. Sutton of course was the prolific bank robber who was said to have replied "that's where the money is" when asked why he robbed banks. Likewise, the GOP contenders would be wise to go where the voters are, especially voters they are losing.”
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
Check out Giuliani's latest spin on the phone call with his wife per an interview with CBN’s Brody:
Brody: Do you care to clear that up?
Giuliani: "Sure. My wife calls me when she gets on a plane. We’d just gotten back from England, hadn’t had much sleep. I knew she was going to take a plane, but I didn’t know which one she was going to take back to New York, and quite honestly since Sept. 11 most of the time when we get on a plane we talk to each other and just reaffirm the fact that we love each other. Sometimes if I’m in the middle of a very, very sensitive meeting, I don’t take the call right then I wait. But I thought it would be kind of nice if I took it at that point, and I’d done that before in engagements, and I didn’t realize it would create any kind of controversy, I would be insulted by it?? I’d done it, usually when I do it I put her on the phone and I have her say hello, but she was rushing to get on the airplane at the time, so I started to put her on the phone, but then I realized she was trying to get on the plane. I think she was at Regan Airport, and she was trying to get to her plane, so I gave her regards. I’d probably don that a half a dozen times before.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Isn’t this statement -- and audio recording -- from Dodd on Dems not ruling troops in Iraq until 2013 two days late:
"I think it is shocking that so-called frontrunners of this race for the Democratic nomination for the Presidency cannot tell the American people without any qualification that they would end this war by 2013. It's indefensible that they would allow this war to go on for another six years and become the longest war in American history, at tremendous cost in terms of human life and to our treasury.
"As President of the United States, I will certainly end the war by 2013, as I said last evening, but we cannot afford to wait until then, or even 2009 for that matter. I think we need to end this war now. That's why I'm fighting to use Congress' power of the purse to stop financing this disastrous policy. It hurts our country, keeps us less safe, more vulnerable, more isolated in the world. By every measure this war has made us far less secure as a nation. I understand that, the American people certainly know that, but I am deeply disappointed that my colleagues, my opponents for the Presidential nomination, apparently do not."
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi called the president this morning and let him know that she was "hoping and praying" that he would change his mind and sign the children's health insurance bill.
Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Harry
Reid appeared at a ceremony to sign the completed legislation and hand it over to the House Clerk, who in turn is charged with sending it down the Avenue to the president's desk. The leaders were flanked by a boisterous group of toddlers and older kids who were goo-goo-ing and ga-ga-ing throughout. The kids were said to be beneficiaries of the SCHIP program.
A certain veto awaits. Nevertheless, Pelosi says she "called to tell him that he is in my prayers." She described the conversation as "friendly" and that "the hand of friendship was extended to each other." The president, according to the speaker, told Pelosi that he "admires people who don't give up." Pelosi aides said that the speaker called the White House without warning and that she was immediately connected to the president.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Athena Jones
Every baby born in America should receive money that can later be used to pay for college, Clinton told the crowd at the Congressional Black Caucus annual legislative conference in Washington on Friday.
"I like the idea of giving every baby born in America a $5,000 account that will grow over time, so when that young person turns 18, if they have finished high school they will be able to access it to go to college," Clinton said, calling it one way to give young people a chance to save money tax free.
Clinton also said the GI bill should be expanded and talked about the importance of making college affordable for everyone. She touched on the need to end discrimination in hiring practices, so that when people graduate college, they can make a decent living. She added that politics should be about giving young people the opportunities to live up to their potential. "Everything we do, I believe, is about young people," she said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
***
Match game: Edwards has struggled to remain in the so-called top tier of Democratic candidates ever since Clinton and Obama both doubled and then tripled Edwards fundraising over the last 9 months. Well, that struggle became even greater yesterday with the campaign's decision to accept matching funds. While the campaign is desperately spinning that this decision means they'll have $20 million to spend at the start of the year, it means the campaign has no long-term strategy. They are going for a quick knockout blow.
***
Knock down, drag out: But Clinton and Obama both will have the resources to drag out this contest if necessary. Edwards has foreclosed that option because accepting matching funds means accepting a fundraising and spending limit that the campaign will likely reach by the end of January. It's exactly what happened to him in ’04. He ended up having to pick and choose where to play after the early states. This decision will make it easer to dismiss Edwards as a first-tier candidate, particularly when both Clinton and Obama triple his fundraising... again Sunday.
***
Clinton vs. Clinton: One of the developing stories from Wednesday night's debate is Clinton v. Clinton. Or more specifically, the growing demand the media and the Clintons’ opponents are putting on the frontrunner to distinguish herself from the FPOTUS. Bill Clinton added some fuel to the fire yesterday by answering a question that his wife didn't answer at the debate. On the issue of donor transparency, Bill Clinton both answered the question and provided a loophole around disclosure saying he anticipates disclosing all donors to his various foundations (including the library) but only beginning in the future. They will not go back in time and release those donors.
***
Expectations, expectations: This week seems to be a day where everyone on the GOP side is trying to re-calibrate expectations, and it should be no surprise since Sunday is the last day of the 3rd quarter fundraising period. It all started earlier this week with Giuliani when he let go of his finance chair (potential sign that he'll report an underwhelming number for a frontrunner?).
***
Re: Slipping? Then there's the Romney campaign memo, which is trying to explain away why they won't budge in the national polls despite still polling well in Iowa and New Hampshire. Also, don't miss the fact that the Romney camp seems to embracing the idea that Giuliani has caught them in New Hampshire. They'd love to make a New Hampshire victory more meaningful again.
***
A tale of two knives: Speaking of expectations, we're curious to see by how much Thompson outraises McCain this quarter. Does he double him or are the two much closer? The two may seem like allies, but are both going in opposite directions on policy. McCain is sharpening his policy knife, drawing real distinctions with the rest of the field. Meanwhile, Thompson is still struggling on issues. He appeared stumped again in Tennessee on a local issue. How long can Thompson get away with not knowing about controversial local issues?
***
On the trail: Clinton and Obama participate in the Congressional Black Caucus' issue forum in DC. Clinton appears at 9:00 am ET, Obama at 1:15 pm ET. Romney speaks to the Council for National Policy in Salt Lake City; Dodd speaks in Iowa on rural economic development; Edwards speaks on economic fairness and attends a bluegrass concert in New Hampshire. He also holds a low-dollar fundraiser with a local plumbers union in Ohio; Giuliani and Gravel campaign in California; Huckabee delivers a foreign policy speech at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and raises money in DC. He’ll also be playing bass guitar with a local rock band, Mama Kicks, in New Hampshire; Obama delivers Howard University’s Opening Convocation address; and Paul campaigns in Massachusetts.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 22 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 39 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 50 days Countdown to Iowa: 108 days Countdown to SC GOP primary: 113 days Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 130 days Countdown to Election Day 2008: 403 days Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 480 days
BIDEN: Biden scored his 10th Iowa state legislative endorsement yesterday.
Biden’s hometown paper, the
Wilmington NewsJournal praises him in an editorial for passing his Iraq legislation, saying it “marked a successful day in his presidential campaign … and has also made Sen. Biden stand out from the rest of the Democratic presidential candidates as the only one to have a specific idea to implement.”
CLINTON: Is Hillary presidential? That’s what
Salon’s Tim Grieve asks in an article about Wednesday night’s debate: “We thought Hillary Clinton finally came off like the front-runner that she is in Wednesday night's Democratic debate in New Hampshire. John Edwards and Barack Obama both looked worn down and thin, and neither scored anything like the knockout blow that must be feeling increasingly necessary.”
CONTINUED >>
The first question at last night's debate forced the candidates to react to the decision by the four frontrunners to not show. Huckabee said he was "embarrassed." Brownback said it was a "disgrace." The other candidates didn't use as harsh of language.
Des Moines Register's Yepsen called the entire GOP a "loser" for its frontrunners deciding to skip the event. "For a party already in minority status in much of the country, it defies political logic to just brush off these constituencies. Republicans don’t need to win the votes of everyone in those groups, but they must carry a big enough slice to deny victories to Democrats in close contests."
The
Washington Times notes, "The first 10 minutes of the debate were dedicated to bashing the four no-shows and, in some cases, Republicans as a whole."
BTW, the GOP candidates are being offered a second bite at the
Univision debate apple, on Dec. 9.
CONTINUED >>
The
Washington Times looks at the difficulty the religious right is having rallying around one candidate. "Many of the top leaders on the religious right privately say it's impossible to name a top-tier, declared Republican hopeful who can pass the "straight face" test as someone social conservatives can honestly say they would trust if elected."
In California, It appears the GOP effort to put a ballot initiative on the state's ballot that could split up California's electoral votes is
coming apart. Two of the campaign's top consultants have quit the effort.
The
Washington Post's Baker looks at Bush's decision to begin taking on the challenge of global warming as a sign he's looking to improve his legacy.
From NBC's Andy Merten
After about 20 minutes of acknowledgements -- which should really be done before the cameras start rolling -- and ending the debate nearly ten minutes early, Smiley was able to get in about only an hour worth of actual time with the candidates. By our count, he got in only eleven questions.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroWe were a little distracted here... The Daily Show's crew, like we said, is on site, and we might wind up in a couple of these shots. They want to know where all the journalists are, which is something we noted earlier.
From NBC's Andy Merten
Tancredo came out pretty strong against yesterday's passing of the Biden-Brownback bill in the Senate, which suggests a three-region partition of Iraq, by Sunnis, Shiites, and Kurds. He said Congress can chose to authorize war, fund a war, or not fund a war, but added, "You cannot micromanage it from the Congress of the United States." It's too bad the format of this forum doesn't really allow for rebuttals between candidates -- it'd be interesting to see Brownback's response to this.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The questions have ranged so far from illegal immigration, now Iraq, health care. The forum is slow, but we knew that coming in. Same old stuff, but it says something at least that these candidates have showed up, but we've noted that already.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Note Hunter has now three time mentioned the "barrio." What is his point with this?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
It's not surprising, since Huckabee has clearly proved his ability on the stage, that he has the most cogent, competent and most unifying answers.
He had a great line on crimes committed either because someone was high or drunk or wanted to get high or drunk.
From NBC's Andy MertenLast week, a bill to grant Washington, DC a voting seat in the House of Representatives failed cloture in the Senate, so it's not a surprise that this topic came up tonight. Tancredo has said that he would not grant a seat to the District because it's not a state -- instead, it should be ceded back to Maryland and Virgina. Hunter seemed to assert that DC residents should be given less stringent gun-owning laws before a vote. Keyes suggested those wanting a vote should just pick up and move out of the city.
Huckabee has broken from the crowd, saying, "I think the people of DC should have the right to vote; I don't care how they vote, they should be allowed to vote." Brownback, on the other hand, supports a constitutional amendment: "There's a way to do it; there's a way not to do it."
Also, all answered that they do support voter photo identification laws.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Alan Keyes talked about blacks being the ones most affected by illegal immigrants taking jobs. It's interesting to hear him talk about this, because in some neighborhoods there is a real tension that exists. In East Harlem, for example, the nonprofit group Tepayac has complained that Mexicans are treated "like ATMs." Many are illegal and they say they are robbed by blacks and scared to tell the police for fear of being deported. Some blacks say they are stealing jobs blacks could have. In other cities -- Los Angeles and Houston, for example -- so-called black-brown tensions have manifested in violence. I can't remember hearing someone, especially not a presidential candidate, seem to discuss this with a tone of division and anger as Keyes has.
From NBC's Andy MertenWe noticed earlier today that during July's NAACP forum in Detroit, where Tancredo was the GOP's only participant, the organizers decided to put up extra podiums for the no-shows. It made for a great picture, seeing Tancredo stand in the middle of a long line of empty spots. While it's not quite as dramatic tonight, this forum is televised -- many more viewers will see those wide shots of a sparsely-populated stage.
From NBC's Andy Merten
Alan Keyes was the first participant to get cut off by the moderator. Smiley seemed to physically ushered the woman who asked the question away from the podium so he could get to the microphone to tell Keyes his time was up.
Maybe we'll start a count of the number of times Keyes is cut off, tonight.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The Political Unit's Andy Merten and I are here liveblogging the forum for your enjoyment. It was a long drive and then walk to get on campus, but we got here before the debate went off. The spin room and press filing center is fairly empty but for a few journalists and Larry Wilmore and John Oliver from The Daily Show. Clearly the laugh lines and news hook is the same: the candidates who didn't show up.
But Tavis Smiley wasn't laughing -- or smiling for that matter -- in his introduction. He -- as well as Tom Joyner who spoke earlier -- railed against the candidates that didn't show: McCain, Romney, Giuliani and Thompson.
Smiley said that the four candidates had suggested publicly that "this audience" would be "hostile" to Republicans.
"Since we're on PBS...I can't tell you what I really think of those comments."
He then thanked Ken Mehlman and Newt Gingrich who are in attendance. Gingrich complained prior to the forum that the candidates who were skipping the forum were making a mistake.
The candidates were no kinder to those who skipped out (except, ugh, Alan Keyes).
HUCKABEE: "I'm embarrassed for our party and embarrassed for those who did not come....We've come a long way, but we have a long way to go....I'm honored to be here." He added, he hopes hey can take up the time of those not in attendance and "make up their ground."
BROWNBACK: "I apologize for those not here." Called it a "disgrace." Railed against those not in attendance.
KEYES: "Unfair to assume" that those have not showed up sends a negative message to the black community.
From NBC’s Abby Livingston
The warrior in John McCain emerged today in New York City, as he took seemingly subtle swings and not-so-subtle swings at friends and foe alike.
Taking aim at the Democrats, when he presented a sort of domino retreat theory among those who advocate a withdrawal from Iraq when he said, "How long will it take before the same advocates of surrender in Iraq begin demanding an end to our mission in Afghanistan and a quote surge in diplomacy aimed at a negotiating stalemate with the Taliban?"
Alluding to Romney he said, "Tough talk or managerial successes in the private sector aren't adequate assurances that their authors have the experience or qualities necessary for such a singular responsibility."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
John Edwards told CNN before the MTV dialogue that he will accept public financing, and Kate Bedingfield, Edwards' New Hampshire press secretary, confirmed the report.
"It's sort of about walking the walk," she said. "You should not be able to buy your way into the White House."
She claims the decision is not a reflection of this quarter's fundraising success or failure and that the campaign is still on track with its $40 million, four-state strategy over four quarters.
"The influence of money is rampant in politics to the point that it dominates the race," Bedingfield said. "The decision is about principle."
In a release, Edwards also called on Clinton to do the same.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
Giuliani reiterated that he would not raise taxes as president today, after the Club For Growth said they were concerned about his tax policy. The organization said in an open letter Wednesday that they were concerned about comments Giuliani made in an Associated Press article, which said Giuliani would not rule out raising Social Security taxes to deal with the program’s insolvency.
Giuliani surrogate and one-time flat-tax presidential candidate Steve Forbes countered today, saying that in the interview Giuliani made clear he opposes all tax hikes when asked specifically about Social Security.
“Based on the mayor’s record as a tax cutter and fiscal conservative -- unparalleled in the Republican presidential field -- we should not find this position unusual,” Forbes said in a letter to Club for Growth President Pat Toomey. “He opposed tax increases and believes they are not the solution. There are many ways to say it, but it’s clear Rudy ruled out tax increases.”
Giuliani also told reporters today that he said in the AP interview at least twice that he would not raise taxes as president.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
As Giuliani raised funds in California today, he was being questioned about his ties to a group pushing a proportional distribution of the state’s 55 electoral votes. Take Initiative America is looking to change California’s electoral college allotment, and its leader, Charles “Chep” Hurth III, has donated $2,000 to the Giuliani campaign, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.
Hurth, a Missouri attorney, has also been tied to efforts to garner Republican support in 2004 for adding Ralph Nader to the presidential ballot in key states. Hurth’s law firm partners have also donated to the Giuliani campaign.
The Democratic National Committee Thursday said Giuliani should explain his ties to “a shadowy front group financing the effort to rig the Electoral College in California.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Domenico Montanaro
This morning, the Quad City Times reported that Michelle Obama said last night that "it's over" if her husband does not win in Iowa.
AUDIO: Michelle Obama tells a crowd about the important of Iowa to her husband's presidential campaign (Note: Audio can be difficult to understand.).
But Michelle Obama did not, in fact, say "it's over." What she did tell supporters (and we have it recorded) is, “Iowa will make the difference. If Barack doesn’t win Iowa, then it's just a dream. If we win Iowa, then we can move to the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen. If we win Iowa, then we can move to the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen."
The gist is the same -- Michelle Obama clearly implied that a poor showing in the state means the end of the road for Obama. And saying, "win" instead of the usual moderate-expectation-setting "do well," is significant. But the ultimatum of "it's over" was not uttered.
The Quad City Times corrected its reporting this afternoon.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Christina Jamison
Bill Clinton was asked at a Global Initiative news conference about
Hillary Clinton's refusal in last night's debate to commit to disclosure of his library and foundation contributors. He responded extensively saying, in part, "She couldn't answer that question last night because we don't believe in one set of rules for us and another set for everybody else."
He then pointed out that Hillary is sponsoring a bill to require disclosures in the future and said, "If she becomes president I will treat it as if we are covered by that and i will disclose all the donors to our library and activities."
Why didn't she answer that last night?
He bristled noticeably: "She just thinks I'm entitled to speak for myself just like I think she is entitled to speak for herself. And she has got no business being asked to speak for me in a presidential debate just like I don't try to speak for her unless i know what her position is."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Mike Memoli
McCain advisers said on a conference call this morning that his New Hampshire ad buy is meant to build on what they feel has been a good month for the campaign, as evidenced by the latest poll showing him closing in on Romney and Giuliani.
"From our perspective we sensed this progress was occurring and wanted to capitalize on that, and continue to wage an aggressive and robust campaign by putting these ads up," said campaign manager Rick Davis.
Both new TV ads include footage of a wounded McCain being interviewed in a Hanoi prison. McCain media strategist Mark McKinnon said that the campaign wanted to draw more attention to McCain's "rich and compelling life story." "We made a lot of assumptions about the fact that voters know the story when in fact they really don't," McKinnon said.
*** UPDATE *** From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
The campaign calls this "a significant statewide ad buy" running on radio and TV on WMUR. CLICK MORE FOR FULL TRANSCRIPTS OF THE THREE ADS.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Joel Seidman
Attorneys in the Office of General Counsel of the House of Representatives filed a motion Wednesday in federal court to quash subpoenas served to 12 senior House members by defense attorneys representing Brent Wilkes, the former defense contractor charged with bribing now imprisoned ex-Rep. Randy "Duke" Cunningham.
House lawyers argue that the information and testimony sought by Wilkes' attorney Mark Geragos from the members is protected by the Speech or Debate Clause of the U.S. Constitution. The Speech or Debate clause protects Member of Congress "not only from the consequence of litigation's results but also from the burden of defending themselves," so long as legislators are ''acting in the sphere of legitimate legislative activity.''
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/National Journal’s Tricia MillerHANOVER, N.H. -- In a morning question-and-answer session with about 400 sixth- through eighth-graders at a Hanover middle school,
Edwards responded to questions on his plans for the presidency.
On a question about potential running mates, he said he had a flexible list, but "no intention of telling you who they are." He said he looks for people who share his vision on global warming, health care, Iraq and poverty.
He told one young questioner, who asked what one thing he would change to reform society, that he would pick the health-care system. He also answered questions on education, ethanol and Iraq. His children, Jack and Emma Claire, joined him on the gym floor in the middle of a circle of seated children during the last answer. Staffers from the campaign also answered questions about their jobs while the gym full of students waited for the senator's arrival.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Republicans focused on issues of security and force in their released statements on last night’s Democratic debate.
Romney was first out with a statement, criticizing Dems on their stances on Iraq naming
Clinton,
Obama and
Edwards. Fred
Thompson followed shortly after criticizing Dems on the Israel-Iran question, saying he was “appalled that none of the leading Democrats would stand up for Israel's right to defend itself against Iran.”
We will update as we hear of more of these.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico MontanaroHANOVER, NH -- So how many folks were confused about which NBC channel was airing the season premiere of the "bionic woman": was it on NBC or MSNBC? More from last night's debate: Clinton was a bit testy, particularly on the Social Security questions. She also allowed her "laughter" tick to kick in for a few other tough questions. Overall, though, no
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one landed a blow on her, and at this point in the game, that's how these debates have to be judged. In a way, she reminded us of one of those Dean Smith teams playing "four corners" or "stall ball" -- by playing it extremely safe. This is what a front-runner does: protects a lead. But if she were being judged on actually answering the questions she was asked, she'd get the lowest marks among those on the stage. To borrow another sports analogy, Clinton punted on the questions regarding Social Security, her war authorization vote (she talked about health care, but not the war vote when Russert brought up both), and the Clinton Library donors. (BTW, how soon before the Clinton library makes the decision that they'll have to do full disclosure on its donors. Won't it be better for Clinton to deal with this in '07 than '08?)
***
A Tale Of Two Candidates: Perhaps the most surprising thing last night was Obama's decision to not aggressively go after Clinton. He didn't seem to change his tone or game even as it appears he's stalled both in the national polls and here in New Hampshire. That said, it's still worth pointing out how far he's come since the first debate back in April. But when given the chance to contrast himself with the front-runner, he punted too, except when he criticized her handling of health care in '93. Of the candidates chasing Clinton, Edwards stood out. He seemed to realize he needed to contrast himself with Clinton on just about every answer he gave. It was one of his better performances; he's getting his William Jennings Bryan schtick down pat. But How will he get past Obama (in money, buzz, and polls)? That's the question for him.
***
The Rest: As for the second half of the field, Biden -- once again -- performed well. If he had resources, he just might get some traction. Then again, maybe it's just us Beltway types who think he's shooting straighter from the hip than any of the other candidates. Of course, when you've got nothing left in the bank, you got nothing left to lose. At a minimum, he's earned a spot on the veep short list, forget Secretary of State. Dodd seemed a bit better tonight, but he just can't seem to stop from speaking like a senator and that hurts him at these debates. Then there's Richardson. What is there to say? It appears he's getting smaller and smaller at these debates. His
campaign said he was joking when he stated that he received the first immigration question because he's Hispanic, but (to us) the joke fell flat. He's trying too hard on some questions and it shows. Finally, Gravel may want to save the tape of this debate, it may have been his last.
***
Pledge, not just for furniture: What are the unintended consequences of all three leading Democratic candidates not pledging to end the Iraq war 10 years after it began? The war began in 2003 and the three leading Dems would not pledge to have all combat troops out by 2013... Ten years.
***
Ouch: While Edwards may have been basking in the glow of solid reviews from his debate performance last night, the campaign must feel like it was punched in the stomach when it clicked over to today's Des Moines Register. The paper -- similar to what the Columbia State did a few weeks back -- reports on its front page the 100+ Iowa foreclosures by sub-prime mortgage lenders owned by the hedge fund Edwards had worked for last year, Fortress. BTW, did Edwards lose his temper on a bit at last night's debate on this question because he knew this Des Moines Register story was coming this morning? Talk about a precision oppo-strike.
***
Skipping Smiley: For a Republican Party that has been trying to make inroads with African-American voters, it probably doesn’t help that its top four candidates (Giuliani, McCain, Romney, and Thompson) plus Tancredo decided to skip tonight’s Tavis Smiley-moderated debate at Morgan State University in Baltimore. It also probably doesn’t help when Smiley goes on the airwaves to criticize those candidates. And it certainly doesn’t help when Jack Kemp said this to the Washington Post about the no-shows: "What are we going to do -- meet in a country club in the suburbs one day?” Or when Newt Gingrich told the paper: “It's just fundamentally wrong. Any of them who give you that scheduling-conflict answer are disingenuous. That's baloney." Those who are attending -- Brownback, Huckabee, Hunter, Paul, and Alan Keyes (yes, Alan Keyes) -- will take questions on issues like health care, housing, and Katrina relief. Also, there will be this dubious honor for those not attending tonight: unmanned podiums.
***
From MySpace To Your Place: Edwards becomes the first presidential candidate to participate in a MySpace/MTV dialogue. Per a release, this hour-long discussion will air on mtvU and will also stream on MTV.com and MySpace. It will be moderated by MTV’s SuChin Pak and Gideon Yago, as well as WashingtonPost.com’s Chris Cillizza.
***
On The Trail: In addition to his MySpace/MTV dialogue, Edwards campaigns in New Hampshire; Giuliani, in California, picks up an endorsement from former GOP Gov. Pete Wilson; McCain is in New York, where he gives a speech to the Hudson Institute and raises money; Obama is also in New York, where he holds a rally in Washington Square Park; Richardson stumps in Boston and Philly; Romney meets with voters in Sacramento, CA; and Thompson raises money all day in Tennessee.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 23 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 40 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 51 days Countdown to Iowa: 109 days Countdown to SC GOP primary: 114 days Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 131 days Countdown to Election Day 2008: 404 days Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 481 days
Also, while Clinton got an "A" for theatrics, she didn't score well on the specifics front. She better hope there isn't a Yankees-Cubs World Series because her answer was too, dare we say, Clintonian by half. Sure, the answer was in jest but it's one of those that will be used as a punch line for not answering specifics on, say, Social Security, Israel or Iran.
Since it was late last night, many folks missed out on how things played out in the spin room. NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli reports... In the spin room, opposing camps seemed to focus on Hillary Clinton's attempts to avoid specifics on certain questions. Obama New Hampshire co-chair Jim Demers said Obama "answered the questions directly. I thought that was a contrast to some of the others... Senator Clinton refused to answer some of the questions, said that she wasn't going to answer hypotheticals. And Senator Obama was very direct... I think people want to have the questions answered so they know where the candidates stand."
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Elizabeth Edwards said her husband was "being really direct with respect to the issues," while "some other candidates might have been a little more cautious." "John is as always really direct and I think in the end that's what's going to be attractive to voters in New Hampshire, [and] frankly across the country," she said.
CONTINUED >>
Human Events' Jennifer Rubin has a good expectations table-setter for the GOP primary. From money to social conservatives to Newt, it's a solid list of questions that need answering.
It looks like the GOP is going to take a press beating today over the fact that the top tier GOP candidates are not appearing at tonight's minority-focused debate. Both the NYT and LAT have stories today.
GINGRICH: The National Review editorializes against Newt Gingrich running. "The Republican party owes Newt Gingrich a big debt. It will benefit should GOP politicians borrow some of the initiatives that result from his latest project. But not if he runs for president."
GIULIANI: In an interview with Radio Iowa, the candidate reiterated his pledge that he is competing in Iowa. "We'll be in Iowa quite a bit. We've been to Iowa nine times this year, including three (days) in August. This month has been devoted, quite frankly, to raising money because we have to report at the end of the week and we want to raise as much money as we possibly can."
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The Washington Times runs this story: "Officials of a defunct pro-Democratic group that was hit with a near-record campaign-finance fine last month hold strong ties to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton's presidential campaign, documents show. At least four persons who worked for the America Coming Together (ACT) fundraising group, which the Federal Election Commission recently fined $775,000, work directly for the Clinton campaign or hold top positions with consulting firms hired by it."
And don’t miss the clipart graphic a Web site run by the Clinton campaign used of Obama likely leading in fund-raising. The graphic was also passed along by the Clinton campaign itself over e-mail. Notably, it’s no longer on the Web site, but the Boston Globe clipped it and asked, Did someone think that maybe it was a little too much?
Rob Reiner can handle the truth! He's for Hillary.
EDWARDS: The candidate's ties to the hedge fund Fortress continue to haunt the candidate in some of the early states. A few weeks ago, a South Carolina paper noted the number of local foreclosures by subprime mortgage companies owned by Fortress and had the candidate on the defensive. Now, this morning, in the Des Moines Register, the paper reports on another 100+ Iowa homeowners being foreclosured upon by Fortress-owned lenders. "Most Iowa Democratic activists interviewed by The Des Moines Register say the foreclosures by themselves do not undermine Edwards' anti-poverty message. However, some say he should have known that his tie to Fortress, which paid him $479,500 for 14 months of work, would be scrutinized in the campaign."
CONTINUED >>
The
Boston Globe’s top story is Gen. Casey telling the House Armed Services Committee, in his first appearance as Army chief of staff, that the Army is "out of balance" and "the current demand for our forces exceeds the sustainable supply. We are consumed with meeting the demands of the current fight and are unable to provide ready forces as rapidly as necessary for other potential contingencies."
Casey “personally requested the public hearing -- a highly unusual move that military analysts said underscores his growing concern about the health of the Army, America's primary fighting force.”
And “Secretary of Defense Robert Gates asked Congress for a record-setting $190 billion to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan for the next year -- nearly $50 billion more than anticipated. Most of the money would go to Iraq. If the request is approved, the cost of the 2003 invasion will top $600 billion.”
This has to have Republicans vexed. The
Boston Globe reports that after “a judge took Senator Larry Craig's request to withdraw his guilty plea under advisement,” Craig said in statement: "Today was a major step in the legal effort to clear my name. The court has not issued a ruling on my motion to withdraw my guilty plea. For now, I will continue my work in the US Senate for Idaho." He didn’t mention his “earlier commitment to resign Sept. 30.”
Roll Call reports that “in the wake of Rep. Terry Everett’s (R-Ala.) announcement Wednesday that he will not seek re-election in 2008, national Democratic leaders and state party officials were quick to say that Republicans are wrong to assume the race to replace him won’t be competitive.” Party leaders apparently already have a candidate picked out, who they call “an A Team candidate” and a “recruiting coup.”
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Some quick thoughts before the morning (it's going to be a LOOONNNGGG night).
Clinton seemed a bit testy tonight, particularly on Social Security... She allowed her "laughter" tick to kick in for a few questions, particularly on the various criticisms other candidates made in press releases that those same candidates didn't have the, well, you know, to verbalize those attacks.
Overall, though, no one landed a blow on her and at this point in the game, that's how these debates have to be judged. As my colleague Mark Murray put it in the control room tonight, she reminds him of Dean Smith in that she's always playing "four corners" or "stall ball." This is what a frontrunner gets to do, protect a lead and Clinton appears to be protecting her lead. BTW, she continues to show command on the stage; it's subtle things but there's no doubting who's in charge of this campaign right now, it's Hillary Clinton.
Perhaps the surprising thing to me was Obama's decision to not overtly go after Clinton. He didn't seem to change his tone or game even as it appears he's stalled both in the national polls and in this state of New Hampshire. Of the candidates chasing Clinton, Edwards stood out to me. He seemed to realize he needed to prove contrast with Clinton on just about every answer he gave. It was one of his better performances. The guy is getting his William Jennings Bryan schtick down pat. How will he get past Obama, that's the problem for him.
As for the second half of the field, Biden, once again, did well. The guy just needs resources and he just might get some traction. Then again, maybe it's just us Beltway types who think he's shooting straighter from the hip than any of the other candidates. Of course, when you've got nothing left in the bank, you got nothing left to lose. At a minimum, I think he's earned a spot on the VP short list, forget Sec./State.
Dodd seemed a bit better tonight but just can't seem to stop from speaking like a senator and that hurts him at these debates.
Then there's Richardson. What is there to say; I think he's getting smaller and smaller at these debates. He's trying too hard on some questions and it shows. I'll have more thoughts tomorrow.
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumAs we predicted,
many of the candidates attacked Hillary Clinton tonight. Edwards was
first, attacking her on her Iraq policy and then on voting today to
"authorize the first step of war with Iran." On this bill, Gravel told
Clinton, "I am ashamed at you for voting for it."
Richardson also
went after Clinton on her Iraq policy. He later attacked Obama,
Edwards, and Clinton for not saying they will remove all troops from
Iraq by the end of their first term.
Obama knocked Clinton on
her failed health care policy during her husband's administration,
telling her the reason it was lonely is because she "closed the door to
Republicans," who did want to reform health care. When he was later
asked if "turning the page" is directed at Bush or Clinton or both,
Obama resisted the chance to attack Clinton and simply said he wants to
end "divisive politics in the country."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumMany
of the Democratic candidates have been using the words "experience" and
"change" to show their strengths. Tonight, the words were not used as
much as we may have thought. For the most part, the candidates only
used the words when Tim Russert asked Clinton, Obama, Richardson, and
Dodd about their experience.
Clinton addressed the issue but
used the word experience just once. At other times during the debate,
she did use the word "change" twice. Obama talked about bringing the
country together, using the word experience three times and never using
the word change. Richardson used the line "with Bill Richardson, you
get both, change and experience," saying the word change once and
experience twice. Dodd talked about his number of years in the Senate
as testament to his experience but never used either word.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroClinton sounded her best tonight, a night when she hasn't sounded her best, when talking about the torture question and about the presidency. Is this why people give her credit for her time as First Lady as experience? Most people have never been "on the inside of the White House," and her talking about a president's role sounded presidential.
From NBC's Athena Jones at the Clinton party...
Huge applause and screams of "I love you" re: Clinton's "her decision" comment.
Also, after some initial thinning out, the crowd is now strong again -- as Clinton is expected to show here later.
Overheard: "She better show up here."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
Check out how Clinton got in a Yucca Mountain pander for the Nevada Democrats.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroObama said he had a responsibility to be in Washington for votes on Iraq rather than be in Jena. "This is not an issue of black or white," Obama said of the Jena situation. He said it's an American issue of justice. It highlights the fine line Obama walks on race as he tries to be a viable, broader candidate, as the Columbia State front-paged this week.
And Obama was the first to release a statement on Jena.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroHillary handled the Bush-Cheney-Bush-Cheney question pretty well with her, "I think Bill was a pretty good president line." Sounded like it got pretty good applause. Bill Clinton is very popular with the base. It's an asset for her in trying to get the nomination.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroObama did not answer the question on what does turning the page mean. Is it about Bush or Clinton or both? He had a chance to really draw a line in the sand and he chose not to.
NBC's Aswini Anburajan, with the Obama supporters...
Strong responses here: Woahs to Tim's question to obama and some clapping.
Big "no's" to Tim's question re: is dynasty good for democracy.
(But Obama didn't answer it that explicitly.)
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroKucinich wants the drinking age to be 18 and the voting age to be 16. Hmm. This has been a revealing debate for Kucinich and Gravel.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerDodd went over so much better at the AARP forum. How is he going after
the youth vote? He had a pretty sizable group of mostly middle aged
supporters following a man playing bagpipes before the debate.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
So here's what we learned on Social Security: Clinton would not put anything on the table, totally ducked the answer; Biden and Edwards want to raise the payroll tax on everyone; Dodd and Obama want to raise it some (maybe not on everybody); while Richardson believes the country will simply grow her way out of it. Meanwile, the final Clinton insert on this question seemed to be a rare debate moment when she realized her answer wasn't very good the first time.
Update: The Edwards campaign reminds me that I missed the fact that Edwards is with Dodd and Obama on having some rise in the payroll tax but with an exception.
From NBC's Aswini AnburajanSome of the older voters here (there are a few) grumbling about candidates responses to the same-sex question.
Also
one sense I am getting here is don't hate the other guys (gal) too much
b/c as a few people have mentioned "four months from now we are all going
to be on the same team."
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton doesn't like to get into specifics on many issues. The "fiscal" answer regarding Social Security sounds like a "specific" answer but it's anything but... It's good campaign politics but it could open herself up to some criticisms down the road.
From NBC's Chuck ToddJoe Biden is starting to embrace this idea that he's this year's "straight talker," so he had no problem pledging to raise the payroll tax.
NBC/NJ's Athena JonesScattered applause here for Clinton's comment about differences being
used for divisive purposes and the need to pass the Hate Crimes
legislation.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini AnburajanApplause here for Obama's response but nothing too strong.
From NBC's Andy MertenThe first laugh-line and major applause of the debate went to Biden, for his slam on Giuliani's foreign policy credentials. "Rudy Giuliani doesn't know what the heck he's talking about; he's the most uniformed person in American foreign policy, and now running for president," he said while answering the question on sanctuary cities. It seems like he formulated this quip during the Iran question regarding Giuliani's past comments on Tehran's nuclear capabilities, and couldn't wait to get a chance to use it when called on.
NBC’s Athena Jones points out that at the Clinton party, People here are not paying much attention to the responses of other candidates, but they laughed at the crack Biden made about Giuliani's foreign policy experience.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroKucinich and Gravel were hit on their bankruptcies and did not answer well. Richardson on his gaffes: he at first, he looked a bit off kilter. Sayinig he's not the "blow-dried" candidate and his prepared answers on his experience were stronger. But is saying I'm going to continue to making mistakes going to resonate with people?
From NBC's Chuck ToddObama just got the "Roger Mudd" question; The why. "The why" is he running now when he said it would be an absurd notion three years ago. How did he do? He seemed to me to get stuck a bit in his windup. One wonders why he doesn't have the "experience" answer down in a crisper manner.
From NBC’s Athena JonesA whoop here for Edwards' promise to cut off health insurance coverage for members of Congress if they don't pass health care by July 2009.
From NBC's Chuck ToddBiden did a better job going after Clinton on the electability issue than Dodd and Biden wasn't even directly asked the question. He addressed the polarizing argument on Clinton in an apologetic way. Pretty clever of the Delaware senator.
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia MillerDodd went over like a lead balloon in Leads. Gravel got a better response - laughter at fantasy land line, lots of applause at southern border line.
From NBC's Chuck ToddFascinating decision by Clinton that she simply ignored the Iraq part of the question regarding judgment on her Iraq vote. She made it all about health care. That's called message discipline folks.
From NBC's Chuck ToddWow, it's interesting that Dodd didn't take the opportunity to take an electability shot at Clinton. Sounds like a candidate who's got cold feet going after the frontrunner. He had some clever lines, but this is New Hampshire, the voters expect a little fight.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroClinton laughed again... twice when Dodd's criticism was brought up about saying he understands why Bush would pick Hillary Clinton.
Dodd did have a funny line... people are asking him, "Anderson Cooper, what's happened to you."
When pressed, Dodd backtracked on his line about Clinton, saying he was being "facetious."
From NBC's Chuck ToddWell that was a jam-packed first 35 minutes. The statements every candidate made regarding pledges on Iraq troops and taking out Iran's nuclear capabilities will live for quite some time.
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton gave a pretty good general election answer on "sanctuary cities" -- she went at it as a crime issue. Sounded awfully like Rudy Giuliani on this answer.
From NBC's Chuck ToddThat was a cheap shot by Richardson. We asked him because he's a border-state governor. I guess we should not have looked at the governor's resume and determined he might be the most thoughtful on this topic.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroEdwards is pressing the distinctions with Clinton. He said they had learned different things on their war vote and said this Iran vote was indicative of that. Will it matter? Edwards clearly wants to put her on the defensive. So far, he's the only one.
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini AnburajanEverything but anchovies is filled with Obama supporters, but the line outside is even longer with supporters who can’t get into the event.
I am sitting with some bubbly Hanover high school students who are lamenting the fact that they can't vote for Obama in this election.
People are jam packed into booths and have drawn up chairs to sit in the middle of the aisles. Feel bad for the wait staff, they are going through an obstacle course to get through the restaurant.
Most interesting comment so far, the 18-and-under crowd saw Chris Dodd and said, "Who's he?"
From NBC's Chuck ToddFirst goof of the night, Edwards mis-pronounced Ahmadinejad.
From NBC's Chuck ToddSo far, there's a lot of me-too-ing between Clinton and Obama.
From NBC's Chuck ToddClinton seemed to agree that she would support a military strike on Iranian nuclear strike. She didn't rule it out and was careful not to rule it out. But it took three attempts to get her to answer the question (for those keeping score).
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroI think that's a first. Getting Clinton to say "I don't want to answer that" when Russert tried to push her in answering a question on whether or not Israel would be justified against a nuclear presence in Iran.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
There's the laugh. And a Bush-Cheney deflection from Clinton. Gravel told Clinton, standing right next to her, that he was disappointed that she voted for the Lieberman-sponsored bill he called a fig leaf for a war with Iran. She laughed it off... again. Then she talked about the Bush administration. That's 1.
From NBC/NJ’s Athena JonesAbout half the crowd at the debate watch party organized by the Clinton campaign were left watching CSpan and then a blank screen when the debate began.
Two TVs were showing the debate in a room where most people were standing. But the people in the other room, where about 60 people were sitting were left waiting for a new television to arrive that would pick up the correct channel. By 9:05, they had gotten the third TV working. The feat was met with applause.
From NBC's Chuck Todd"It's FantasyLand." -- Mike Gravel could not have spoken truer words. You fill in the blank as to what he was actually describing.
From NBC's Chuck ToddFor those keeping score, of the six major candidates, only Dodd and Richardson pledged to get all troops out by 2013.
From NBC's Chuck ToddDodd's answer was a classic senator response; he didn't answer the question until he was reminded of the question one more time. This is Dodd's fundamental problem as a candidate, he thinks too much like a senator (or speaks too much like a senator). It was a VERY thoughtful opening remark, but it wasn't a debate response.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
So Dodd said he would "get that done" in bringing the troops home by 2013.
Biden said if there is no political solution, then I would bring them home.
From NBC's Chuck ToddIt's VERY early but Edwards seems on his game tonight.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroEdwards going at Clinton immediately. "I would have our combat troops out of Iraq." Clinton would not, he said. Clinton said she may keep combat troops there to find al Qaeda.
Edwards looked poised in following up on his answer. Not angry or frustrated as we've seen him before, more presidential.
From NBC's Chuck ToddWow... Edwards also couldn't take the pledge to get all troops out of Iraq by 2013. Doesn't this allow Clinton to continue to blur the distinctions on the war?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Clinton said she voted for Biden's plan, though would word it slightly differently.
From NBC's Chuck Todd
It took Obama about 10 seconds to bring up his initial opposition to the war. Interesting that Obama, when given the chance to pledge that there would be no more troops in Iraq in 2013, that he ducked the pledge. Clinton did that the other night. Look for the other candidates to jump on him for that.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroOn the Iraq question to Obama, he immediately cited his own judgment saying if it had prevailed, the United States would not be in Iraq. He echoed Clinton from when she was on Meet the Press about whether or not they'd guarantee troops out by the end of their first terms. The question was thrown to Clinton and she said she "agreed with Barack."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Both the Clinton and Obama campaigns are utilizing text messages to alert supporters about the debate tonight. Obama's text provided more information on how to watch the debate while the Clinton campaign appears to be trying to find out how many people on their list are actually watching the debate.
The Obama campaign sent this text at 3:09 this afternoon:
"Watch Barack at the DNC debate tonight from 9-11pm ET, live on MSNBC and streamed at http://www.msnbc.com REPLY to this message with your thoughts throughout."
At 8:29 this evening, the Clinton campaign sent this text:
"Hi, tonight's NH debate starts at 9ET on MSNBC. Let me know if you're going to be watching, Reply YES or NO. Thank you, Hillary."
From NBC/National Journal's Athena Jones
HANOVER, N.H. -- In the hours leading up to the Democratic debate at Dartmouth, the campaigns held informal question and answer sessions with students. Students filtered in and out of classrooms listening to some of the contenders' top advisors talk about why students should consider their candidates.
Clinton's Senior Advisor Ann Lewis spoke to a group of 50 to 60 students, who asked questions about what Clinton would do to combat HIV/AIDS, her stand on gay marriage and gay adoption, why she accepts money from Wall Street and what the campaign is doing to appeal to young voters.
Lewis also talked about how Clinton would change NAFTA, what it means to her to be running to be the first woman president and how she would stand up to Republican attacks.
"2008 is going to be like 2004 on steroids," Lewis said, making reference to the kind of treatment the Democratic nominee will likely face from her Republican rival. She noted that Republicans had managed to neutralize the potential positive effects of the military experience of decorated war veteran John Kerry last time around and suggested the road to the White House would be even rougher this time around.
From NBC's Chuck ToddHANOVER, N.H. -- Hello from the control room. It's hard to believe this is already the 7th Democratic debate (if you count the AFL-CIO showdown in Chicago in August). But there's something different about this one: not only because it's the first debate of the fall but because it's also the first debate for the Democrats where there is a single, lone, frontrunner. Not only will the candidates begin to treat Hillary Clinton a bit differently tonight (don't expect the same deferential tone we've become accustomed to), but the media will also be looking at Clinton differently. And, of course, the voters will be examining her like they never have before. I know I'm anxious to see this campaign kick into another gear and my guess is we'll see that shift tonight. Enjoy and be sure to refresh "First Read" constantly as the entire NBC News political team is covering this debate from every angle, from the control room, from the living room, from the spin room, from the Dartmouth dorm rooms and from the various debate parties.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
HANOVER, NH -- Tonight, all of the campaigns were invited to have members of their staff meet with Dartmouth students. The Richardson camp sent the candidate himself, and he was met with an overflow crowd in Rockefeller Hall.
Afterwards, Richardson said he hopes tonight to continue pressing his fellow Democrats on the Iraq war. "I have the strongest position to end the war, which is bring all American troops out, not leave any behind," Richardson said. "The other candidates aren't saying that." Richardson just launched his a new TV ad on New Hampshire airwaves driving that point home. Richardson says he's confident he'll do well in this state's first-in-the-nation primary. "I've got momentum. I've still got a ways to go, and we have four months to go," he said. "I feel good. I'm outworking everybody."
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
HANOVER, NH -- Once again, Gravel will find himself on the far end of the stage during tonight’s debate. But to his immediate right will be none other than Hillary Clinton, and Gravel plans to use his position to his advantage. “I’m going to turn to Hillary [and say], ‘Hillary why did you vote for this fig leaf for George Bush to invade Iran.” Gravel was referring to the Kyl-Lieberman amendment that passed the Senate today, which brand's the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization. “It’s a Gulf of Tonkin kind of resolution that would give George Bush the fig leaf, the fig leaf, to invade [Iran],” Gravel said. “This could be the beginning of the end.”
Asked about his standing in New Hampshire, Gravel said: “I don’t know... I have been working hard in New Hampshire. I don’t have the celebrity nature. And then you get the national media who doesn’t even want to cover you.”
From NBC/NJ's Tricia MillerHANOVER, NH -- A group of 10 African-American Dartmouth students protested outside Spaulding Auditorium, where tonight's debate will be held. Holding signs that read "I'll vote for you if you vote for freedom," "Forget about Hanover, what about Jena?" and "What about the Jena 6?" the students said they had been asked to stand on the sidewalk instead of the green. It rained briefly while they stood outside; across the street hundreds of people watched Chris Matthews interviewing guests on Hardball, including Sen.
Joe Biden and
Elizabeth Edwards.
Lou-Lou Igkowbe, a sophomore from New Jersey, said that she doesn't think civil rights is an issue limited to Jena. "If it's happening in Louisiana, it's happening to me," she said. Igkowbe said she wanted the media to focus on what happened specifically in Jena.
Daria Waite, a sophomore from Philadelphia, agreed. She said she hoped candidates would speak honestly at the debate about poverty, health care and the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, as well as the Jena 6.
From NBC's Domenico MontanaroRomney slipped,
Giuliani is now within the margin of error for the top spot and
McCain has gained ground in the new Granite State poll out tonight, which was conducted by the University of New Hampshire and sponsored by CNN/WMUR.
Romney and Giuliani are in a statistical dead heat in the Granite State. Romney got 25% to Giuliani's 24%. McCain got a 5-point bump to 18% and Fred
Thompson is at 13%. The margin of error for the poll is plus or minus 5%. Notably only 13% of voters say they have definitely made up their minds.
Romney's support dropped 10 percentage points since last month when he held a 14-point lead. Fred Thompson apparently was not helped by missing this month's New Hampsire GOP debate, as 29% of likely voters said they are less likely to vote for him because of that decision.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew BergerA Republican official told First Read the change is probably a sign of a personality conflict or a difference in expectations between Dunsmore and the campaign.
"These things happen all the time," said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. "All the guys around Rudy are smart, but they've never done this before."
But given the announcement came days before the end of the quarter, the official also said it could be a preemptive strike against third quarter numbers that are not as strong as people would think.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Nine finalists were announced for the Romney “Create Your Own Ad” contest. The winner will have their ad selected as a Romney commercial tomorrow morning. The voting closes at midnight. There are some pretty good ones, including the first, which is patriotic but not too sappy and highlights Romney's leadership. The pictures and music match the words pretty well. There's also an interesting testament from a man who says he was a volunteer at the Salt Lake Games, though it seems more suitable as a Web video because of the picture quality.
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
Anne Dunsmore is out as finance director for the Giuliani presidential campaign.
The campaign confirmed the change first reported by the Politico, and said Jim Lee will take over as “Finance Co-chair and CEO.” Campaign spokeswoman Katie Levinson said it was an amicable departure. But a Giuliani aide said that with Dunsmore "it wasn't the right fit."
Campaign officials said the shakeup was not an indication of disappointment over the third quarter fundraising dollars. Giuliani has been criss-crossing the country in the final weeks of the quarter, and is planning several West Coast events this weekend. He has even gone to London to raise funds among ex-patriots.
The campaign official said that Dunsmore’s departure was more of an indication of differing strategic visions moving forward.
From NBC’s Ken Strickland
In a strong rebuff to the Bush Administration on Iraq, the Senate overwhelming approved a plan by Biden that essentially calls for breaking Iraq into three sections: Kurd, Sunni, and Shia. While the amendment is nonbinding, it's the first measure to pass, (vote was 75-23,) that goes against the administration's war strategy.
Biden's chief co-sponsor was Brownback. Fellow candidates Clinton and Dodd also supported the plan. Obama and McCain did not vote.
In a news conference after the vote, Biden said his plan is consistent with the Iraqi constitution which calls Iraq to be made up of "a decentralized capital, regions, and governorates, and local administrations." Biden says this plan illustrates how to "end this war in a way that we are able to ultimately to bring our troops home and leave a stable Iraq behind... [that] is consistent with the Iraqi constitution." He described it as "pushing on an open door."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
James Denton, who plays “Mike Delfino” on “Desperate Housewives,” will be campaigning for Edwards in Iowa this weekend with Edwards’ daughter Cate. They will stop in at least seven Iowa towns, including “Hawkeye fans in Iowa City for a Homecoming tailgate,” according to an Edwards campaign press release with the headline, “Edwards’ Eldest Daughter and America’s Favorite Primetime Plumber Will Both Make First Iowa Campaign Appearances This Election Cycle.”
Cate is a student at Harvard Law School and is involved in politics with the group Generation Engage, which is focused on increasing civic involvement of youth.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
HANOVER, NH -- Earlier today, we mentioned that Obama campaign workers were planting signs here on the Dartmouth campus as early as 6:15 am ET. Here's an update from later this morning... Richardson's campaign was owning the road to the campus. His signs lined Route 10 from I-89, right up to the Dartmouth campus. Stationed a long the way were a few larger "NH Welcomes Governor Bill Richardson" banners.
Hillary Clinton's camp had a team of sign wavers at the ramp exiting I-89. And Obama's camp had some volunteers stationed at various intersections, including a large "Honk If You believe" Sign on Route 10.
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira
The House is at this moment voting to condemn MoveOn.org for the Petraeus ad. House Republicans have managed to get the measure considered in a procedural motion attached to a bill to fund the government for the next 8 weeks.
The motion "condemns in the strongest possible terms the personal attacks made by the advocacy group MoveOn.org impugning the integrity and professionalism of General David H. Petraeus.”
The measure appears to be passing by a very wide margin, with the vast majority of Democrats voting in favor. Recall that the Senate passed a similar measure last week with the help of 22 of 51 Democrats and quasi Democrats.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Have you seen this Google ad?
"Obama for President? Why Not Learn More About John McCain for President."
NBC/National Journal’s Aswini Anburajan, who is embedded with the Obama campaign, takes a look at this political advertising trend over at National Journal:
“Obama isn't the only presidential moniker that the McCain team latched on to searches for Hillary Rodham Clinton, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney -- as well as the word ‘president’ -- also bring up AdWords for McCain, with similar language to those appearing next to the Obama results."
The McCain campaign says, "We buy hundreds or thousands of different AdWords -- that's monitored all the time. It's based on what's going in the news cycle [that is] relevant to the 2008 cycle." And “McCain's camp may not be alone in using another candidate's name to push its own Web site.”
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
HANOVER, NH -- Tonight, the eight Democratic presidential candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, Obama, and Richardson -- participate in a debate here at Dartmouth College at 9:00 pm ET. The Duel at Dartmouth, which airs on MSNBC and is moderated by NBC's Tim Russert, marks the sixth full-fledged Democratic debate of this campaign season (or seventh, if you count the boisterous AFL-CIO forum at Soldier Field), and the third one sanctioned by the Democratic National Committee. It also happens to be the first Democratic debate of the fall, and it comes as Clinton has widened her lead nationally and also in this state. A brand-new CNN/WMUR poll finds her with a 23-point lead over Obama in New Hampshire (43%-20%). Back in July, her lead was nine points (36%-27%). With that kind of advantage, and with about three months until the early nominating contests begin, doesn’t each debate become more and more important for the candidates chasing her?
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on what Barack Obama can do, going into tonight's Democratic debate, to stop Hillary Clinton from walking away with the Democratic nomination.
*** A Lot Has Happened In The Past Month: The last Democratic debate took place in mid-August, and much has happened since then. The Petraeus report. The MoveOn ad that overshadowed it. The 9/11 anniversary. The strange Norman Hsu story. Clinton’s health-care rollout. And the candidates’ pledge not to campaign in Florida and Michigan. Will those be the big storylines tonight? Or will they be other issues? Speaking of, don’t miss today’s front-page Wall Street Journal report of a Bill Clinton-connected business dealing gone bad, or Adam Nagourney’s piece on how the front-runner doesn’t always become the nominee.
*** Three Things To Watch For: 1) How many times will Clinton laugh? We've noticed an interesting pattern: Whenever Clinton gets a tough question or is attacked by an opponent directly, she deflects the criticism with laughter. So, if Clinton's doubled-over in laughter most of the night, we'll know she's the target. 2) How many times have we believed THIS would be the debate that Obama goes after Clinton? With just a handful of debates left for him (since he's skipping any of them not sanctioned by the DNC), he doesn't have too many more opportunities to go after her. 3) There's an expectation that Edwards will take direct aim at Clinton, but what if he decides to attempt to show distinction more with Obama? One can argue that he needs to send a message to the MSM that he -- and not Obama -- is the chief Clinton alternative.
*** Other Questions: As for the others in the field, will Richardson make it through one debate without having a head-scratching moment? Will Biden continue stick up for Clinton (as he’s done in the past) or will he take aim at her (as he did at the AARP forum)? And then there's Dodd. He seems comfortable going after everyone ahead of him. Will he go more after Clinton or, say, an Edwards, who arguably is running the type of populist campaign that Dodd would like to run?
*** Trouble For The Dems? For the final installment of First Read’s look at the Democratic Party and its potential problems heading into 2008 -- despite everything going right for it at the moment -- we examine national security. Thanks largely to the Iraq war, Democrats today are in a stronger position on this issue than they’ve ever been. In the July NBC/WSJ poll, Democrats held a 15-point advantage over Republicans on the Iraq, and were even with the GOP on terrorism. (For a bit of perspective, Republicans had a whopping 36-point lead on terrorism back in October 2002.) But there is no doubt that the Republican Party pouncing on MoveOn’s anti-Petraeus ad -- and then the Democrats backing away from it -- exposed a hole in the Dems’ armor: They are still wary of any GOP effort to portray them as not supporting the troops.
*** MoveOn-ed? Indeed, with the Democratic candidates vowing not to vote for any war-funding bill unless it comes with a timetable for withdrawal, are they setting themselves up to be MoveOn-ed? Also, don’t forget this comment from Hillary Clinton back in late August: “If certain things happen between now and the election, particularly with respect to terrorism, that will automatically give the Republicans an advantage again, no matter how badly they have mishandled it, no matter how much more dangerous they have made the world.” Is she right?
*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, there are (or were) a couple of interesting events. Edwards was supposed to be in Buffalo rallying with striking United Auto Workers members, but now has cancelled the event due to a settlement between the UAW and GM. And Giuliani, in another high-profile meeting with world leaders, meets with Iraqi President Talabani at the Waldorf Astoria in New York.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 24 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 41 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 52 days
Countdown to Iowa: 110 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 115 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 132 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 405 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 482 days
The Dartmouth campus newspaper has the details on the format. “The debate will be broken into four segments, with three commercial breaks of approximately three minutes each dividing the segments… Candidates will have 90 seconds to respond to questions, and the moderators may award them 30 seconds of rebuttal time.” More: “Campus life will likely be disrupted for the first day of classes, as the Green is taken over by the Campaign Visibility Area, also known as the ‘free speech zone’ -- the only area where ralliers are allowed to demonstrate or display signs.”
The Union Leader looks at a new CNN/WMUR poll showing Clinton expanding her lead over Obama and Edwards.
Meanwhile, the RNC says it purchased online ads on 39 New Hampshire-related Web sites (including news sites and blogs). They feature an interactive game that allows users to guess which Democrat said what on important topics. The RNC also issued a press release early this morning noting how much money the Dem front-runners’ health-care and tax plans will costs US taxpayers.
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The $9.11 fundraiser idea by some supporters participating in a Giuliani House Party seemed to cause the campaign a minor headache yesterday. We're guessing this won't be the last time the campaign has to distance itself from an over-eager supporter trying to invoke 9/11. Giuliani has a fine line to walk on this. As for this story, was the Giuliani campaign's "unfortunate" statement strong enough?
Giuliani hasn't been to Iraq but Iraq's coming to him. Giuliani added a meeting with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani to his Wednesday schedule. The noon meeting at the Waldorf-Astoria allows Giuliani to continue showcasing his foreign policy understanding and provide an aura of presidentiality, one week after meeting with British officials in London.
Giuliani will head west Thursday for the rest of the week. The trip will focus on fundraising, but the mayor will also pick up an important endorsement in California. Former Gov. Pete Wilson is expected to announce his support Thursday in Santa Monica, according to the AP.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: The candidate takes his criticism of Giuliani's $9.11 fundraiser a step further, and is capitalizing on the event. The Chicago Tribune reports that Biden's campaign is asking people to register their objection with a contribution of $20.08, $200.80 or even $2,008.00. Biden campaign manger Luis Navarro writes that they have "had enough of Republican candidates exploiting 9/11 for political purposes."
At last week’s AARP forum, Biden was critical of Richardson being governor of small state New Mexico, but the
Los Angeles Times' Don Frederick points out Biden's own state, in which he is a senator not governor, has a population of 853,476 versus New Mexico’s 1,954,599.
CLINTON: Has Clinton oddly benefited from low expectations throughout this campaign? One could argue that. In fact, check out this Bloomberg News report suggesting that Clinton might overtake Obama on the money front this quarter. Frankly, it's been shocking that Obama has outraised Clinton in the first half of this year. But if Clinton tops Obama this quarter (even if just by a little bit), it will be an exclamation point on what's been a great three-month run for Clinton.
CONTINUED >>
USA Today writes that presidential candidates and the political parties “will spend at least twice as much as they did in 2003-04 on TV ads before nominees are chosen, campaign advertising experts say. A record $100 million or more will likely be paid to put campaign ads on the air by the time the Republican and Democratic races are effectively over, likely some time in February.”
“‘We had $45 million spent on campaign ads in what was the primary race in 2003 and 2004,’ says Evan Tracey, chief operating officer at the Campaign Media Analysis Group of TNS Media Intelligence, which measures political advertising. ‘It's easy to say there will be two times that. It certainly goes to $100 million.’”
New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner may announce the dates for the filing period soon. It's supposed to be in the first week of November, so an earlier filing will be the first clue to when the actual primary will be. "At this point, the most I can say is it doesn't appear it will be any later than the 8th of January," said Gardner.
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post carries this quote from a military person on background on the Blackwater situation. “‘This is a nightmare,’ said a senior U.S. military official. ‘We had guys who saw the aftermath, and it was very bad. This is going to hurt us badly. It may be worse than Abu Ghraib, and it comes at a time when we're trying to have an impact for the long term.’ The official was referring to the prison scandal that emerged in 2004 in which U.S. soldiers tortured and abused Iraqis.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times writes, “MoveOn.org said yesterday that it paid The New York Times $77,508 after the newspaper revealed that its advertising department had undercharged the organization for an advertisement that ran two weeks ago and proved controversial.”
“A major expansion of government health insurance to nearly 4 million children passed the House of Representatives Tuesday, but without enough Republican support to overcome President Bush's promised veto. The vote was 265-159, with 45 Republicans supporting the bill. It would take 289 votes to override the president's veto.”
The New York Times: “Explaining his objections [to the legislation], Mr. Bush said, ‘The bill goes too far toward federalizing health care and turns a program meant to help low-income children into one that covers children in some households with incomes of up to $83,000 a year.’ Senator Charles E. Grassley, an Iowa Republican and a co-author of the bill, said the president’s charge was ‘factually incorrect.’ The goal, Mr. Grassley said, is to sign up low-income youngsters who are already eligible but not enrolled in the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
We reported earlier that Daily Kos held a Democratic presidential straw poll Sept. 24. Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas said he voted for someone and had the site's viewers vote on who they thought he voted for. Turns out he voted for Dodd.
Kos: "I voted for Chris Dodd. Only 22% of you got that right? I thought it'd be more obvious than that. Not that this means he's likely to get my vote in February. I don't throw away my votes, so unless he's become surprisingly competitive in January, I'll be looking elsewhere. It just means he really outshone the other candidates these past few weeks and made me think, for the first time in a while, 'THIS is how I want my nominee to sound.'
"Oh, and I won't do an 'endorsement' in this race. I assume you have your own brains to guide you in that process."
From NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum, NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones, Aswini Anburajan and NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
At Little Rock Central High School's 50th Anniversary Commemoration Ceremony, Bill Clinton took center stage. He was the commemorative speaker at today's ceremony and the chairman of the Little Rock Nine Gala last night. He asked all in attendance to reflect on, 50 years later, what Americans do for their children. Clinton emphasized showing gratitude, replicating excellence in schools, and being personally responsible in creating change. Clinton, who was 11 in 1957, said the event impacted his life to work for true equality.
"They made me decide, not just have an opinion, but to have a conviction," Clinton said. "We all should be grateful to people in life who make us move from opinion to conviction."
Like Clinton, Huckabee, another former governor of Arkansas, was in attendance, but he was certainly stuck in Clinton's shadow today. Bill and Hillary Clinton had seats on the stage while Huckabee and his simply attended the ceremony with seats in the audience.
CONTINUED >>
...BUT DO THEY WANT HIM?
From NBC’s Andy Merten
In preparation for tomorrow night’s debate, Richardson is continuing to tout himself as the only candidate supporting a complete withdrawal from Iraq, as well as the seemingly favorite of the lefty NetRoots. The campaign released a four-and-a-half-minute web video yesterday, in which liberal bloggers laud the New Mexico governor for his plan, while questioning the motivations of the top-tier candidates. An abbreviated version of the video will begin playing on New Hampshire television today.
“Clinton, Obama, and Edwards all say they want to end the war in Iraq, but they support leaving thousands, even tens of thousands of troops behind – that doesn’t make any sense,” says Matt Stoller from OpenLeft.com in the 30-second the TV version. He is echoed by Christina Siun O’Connell of Firedoglake.com, who adds, “If you leave troops behind, you’re not ending the war.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
In a fund-raising and promotional stunt, the Clinton campaign offers up a spot on the couch next to the former president to watch a debate. Three people will be picked through an online contest. The deadline is Sunday night.
“There are two things in this world that I love more than anything else -- my family and politics,” Clinton writes in an e-mail peppered with "Contribute" links. “So you can imagine just how fired up I get when Hillary is on the stage debating the issues that matter to our country. So here's an idea: why don't you and I share that excitement together during an upcoming debate. ...
"We'll sit down in front of a big TV with a big bowl of chips, watch the debate, and talk about the race."
From NBC/National Journal’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Yesterday Thompson appeared on Bill Bennett's conservative radio show Morning in America to discuss his hard-line views on Iran. Amongst the clamor of Republican voices criticizing Columbia University for its decision to host Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad this past week, Thompson released a statement saying not only should Ahmadinejad not be invited to speak at an American university, he should not even be allowed on American soil.
Yesterday Bennett raised the argument that preventing a foreign head of state from landing in the United States when the purpose of his visit is to speak at the United Nations could be viewed as illegal under the United Nations charter, to which Thompson implied that the charter should include more "exceptions."
"There are exceptions to every rule, and there ought to be exceptions," Thompson said. "This is our home soil, and there ought to be an exception in our own minds whether it's written into the charter or not with regard to people who've declared war on us…I wouldn't mind a little controversy at the United Nations."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
This goes in the TMI category, which has has too many additions this campaign:
From an Esquire profile of Edwards:
"I hope this isn't too personal," I said to Edwards, "but I was reading about how Elizabeth discovered her cancer this second go-around. It was a broken rib, correct?"
"Yes," Edwards said.
"The papers said you were hugging her -- which is always nice to hear, a married guy hugging his wife. It must have been bizarre. What happened, you just hugged her and heard a snap?"
"Maybe it is a little personal," Edwards said, laughing self-consciously.
"Maybe I don't want to know?"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Earlier today, we discussed how the public's dissatisfaction with Congress is perhaps rubbing off on the Democratic Party, given the party's first net-negative rating in about a year in the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.
Still, we noted that the Democrats are viewed in a more positive light than their GOP counterparts. And a new USA Today/Gallup poll backs that up -- in fact, they even have a net-positive rating in the survey.
According to the poll, 51% view the Democratic Party favorably, compared with 38% who view it unfavorably. The numbers for the GOP are essentially reversed: 38% positive, 59% negative.
From NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum
An organization trying to combat childhood obesity has created a television spoof of Sen. Larry Craig's men's room incident called “Dirty Little Secret.” The ad targets U.S. senators drafting the Farm Bill, who support subsidies for high-fat foods such as bacon and burgers that make their way to school-lunch programs.
The ad, created by the non-profit Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine (PCRM), features a man in a bathroom stall tapping his foot, signaling that he is ready to receive political contributions from the pork industry. "In turn, Congress buys up millions of dollars of these products and dumps them on our schools," the ad’s announcer says. "Companies get rich. Kids get fat. Is your Senator on the gravy train? Find out at StopChildhoodObesityNow.org"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Pete Williams
Just in time for the coming election year, the US Supreme Court today agreed to consider whether states can require voters to show a photo ID at the polling place to case a vote.
Eleven states now require voters to show IDs. Georgia's law requires the ID to have a photo, and so does Indiana -- which is the state law the court today agreed to review. It's considered the nation's strictest.
Opponents of the law argue that it will reduce voter participation, because it makes it harder for older residents, the poor, racial minorities, and people with disabilities to muster the necessary documents that are required to get a driver's license or state-issued photo ID card. Advocates of the law say showing a photo ID is a small price to pay to reduce voter fraud. In upholding the law, a federal appeals court said photo IDs have become such a part of American life that using one for voting is only a minimal burden.
There's a partisan aspect to this argument that goes beyond constitutional rights. Advocates of voter ID requirements tend to be Republicans, and opponents are generally Democrats. The court will probably hear the case in December 2007 or January 2008.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
HANOVER, NH --
*** Hillary’s final hurdle? So far this campaign season, Clinton has cleared -- at least right now -- three important hurdles: 1) the past Clinton baggage; 2) questions about her gender; and 3) her Iraq war vote. But her Democratic rivals now are focusing on what may be her final hurdle: electability. Yesterday, when he endorsed Obama, former Iowa Democratic Party chairman Gordon Fischer touched on this when he said that Obama had the best chance of winning the White House and helping downballot candidates. Also, in reference to President Bush’s comment that Clinton will win the Democratic nomination, a Dodd spokeswoman said: "I can understand why the President would want Senator Clinton to be the nominee." Ouch. Of course, Democrats -- right now -- believe that Clinton is the most electable candidate. In this month’s NBC/WSJ poll, 54% of Democratic voters said Clinton has the best chance of defeating the Republicans in 2008. But dig a bit deeper in the poll and you'll notice a ceiling for Clinton. For instance, when matched up against the least known major GOP candidate (Huckabee), Clinton nabs just 50%.
*** Bill’s power: Just how powerful is Bill Clinton? It appears, according to the Politico, that he helped kill a GQ article by Atlantic Monthly writer Joshua Green that wasn’t all that friendly to the Clinton campaign. Whether it’s helping rack up congressional endorsements for his wife, preventing labor groups from endorsing other candidates, or even helping to kill negative stories, this is Bill’s real power in this race: leverage.
*** Land to the rescue: A week after James Dobson criticized Thompson, Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention comes to Thompson’s defense. Land tells CBN’s Brody: “I’ve received phone calls and emails from Southern Baptists about Senator Thompson. They are all furious at Doctor Dobson. They just feel that first of all there was a mischaracterizing of his positions. Do I wish that he supported the marriage protection amendment? Of course I do. To say that he is for 50 different views of marriage in 50 different states is a gross mischaracterization of his position. Secondly, do I wish that he attended church every Sunday? As a Baptist pastor, of course I do. But does that make him a person of unbelief? That’s harsh and unwarranted.” Land's likely support for Thompson has been on display for months. Dobson may have a large audience, but Land (a Southerner) may be a more important ally in a GOP primary.
**
Let the Borat jokes begin: The Giuliani campaign is raising money in
Kazakhstan from Americans living there.
***
Trouble for the Dems? Before tomorrow’s Democratic debate on MSNBC, moderated by NBC’s Tim Russert, we’re taking a look at some potential problems for Democrats in 2008, even though they’re in better position than they’ve been in years. Yesterday, we looked at some cautionary data regarding independents (a must-win group for Democrats and a group that's BIG here in New Hampshire). Today, we examine some of the disenchantment with the Democratic-controlled Congress. Per this month’s NBC/WSJ poll, only 23% approve of Congress’ job. More importantly, the Democratic Party -- for the first time in nearly a year -- has a net-negative rating on the feeling thermometer (34% positive/38% negative). “Dissatisfaction with Congress has dragged down the image of the Democratic Party,” pollster Neil Newhouse (R) told First Read. Of course, the GOP’s rating is even worse (31% positive/47% negative). And, by a 47%-35% margin, voters say they prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress to a GOP-controlled one.
*** Meet the new boss, same as the old boss? Still, did voters expect more change from a Democratic Congress? Yes, it did pass a minimum-wage hike and has been a check on the White House. And, yes, Bush has thwarted much of what the Democrats have wanted to do. But the facts are this: Gridlock, party infighting, and the Iraq war all continue. The Democratic front-runners are promising change. But with Congress unable to deliver on change -- so far -- could such a message end up falling on deaf ears?
*** Another labor cattle call: It wasn’t too long ago that a handful of labor unions -- including SEIU, the Carpenters, the Farm Workers, and the Teamsters -- broke away from the AFL-CIO and formed their own federation, Change To Win. The reason for the split: Those unions though the AFL was too focused on politics and not enough on organizing. Well, today Change to Win gets a dose of politics when Obama, Edwards, and Clinton (in that order) address the group in Chicago. This front-runner cattle call comes just a day after the United Auto Workers -- an AFL member -- went on strike against GM.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Biden is in Boston; Huckabee is in Arkansas, where he attends the commemoration ceremony of Central High’s 50th anniversary of integration; McCain is in Texas, where (among other things) he participates in a roundtable discussion on Israel in Houston; Obama, after addressing Change to Win, campaigns in Portland, ME; and Romney raises money in California.
*** Another "Super Tuesday": For more on these things -- and much, much more -- tune into another round of MSNBC’s all-day Super Tuesday political coverage.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 25 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 42 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 53 days
Countdown to Iowa: 111 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 116 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 133 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 406 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 483 days
The New York Times’ David Brooks looks at the power of the netroots within the Democratic Party and concludes it may not be as powerful as they think.
After an eight-hour meeting in Chicago yesterday, the executive board of the Service Employees International Union decided not to endorse a candidate in the Democratic primary for now. The executive board will revisit the issue of an endorsement on October 8, after the third quarter fund-raising totals are in. The delay in choosing a candidate to endorse gives Obama the opportunity to meet with and persuade SEIU leaders that he is the best contender, and the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reports that "there are elements within the leadership who want to stop Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is the front-runner…."
BIDEN: The candidate has an op-ed in the Columbia State today that outlines his partition plan for Iraq.
Yesterday, the campaign announced that Biden had picked up his ninth endorsement from an Iowa legislator: House Speaker Pro Tempore Polly Bukta (D-Clinton).
CONTINUED >>
Florida Republicans are using the feud between the Florida Democratic Party and the DNC
as a recruiting tool. The GOP is set to send out a mailer this week warning targeted Florida Dems that because of political infighting their vote may not be counted. Included in the mailer: a form to change voter registration.
This is interesting. The NRA, which hasn't tried to play an influential role in presidential primaries in the past, is contemplating getting actively involved in this campaign. The Washington Times: “‘Historically, we have not gotten involved in primaries. We traditionally wait until after the conventions,’ said Chris Cox, head lobbyist for the NRA. ‘That being said, given the candidates and the process and the front-loading of the primaries, it is a possibility that we could get involved in one of these presidential primaries.’”
The article adds that "Fred Thompson, who earned an ‘A’ rating from the NRA during his time in the Senate, was the group's favorite. Meanwhile, the GOP front-runner, Rudolph W. Giuliani, left members underwhelmed."
GIULIANI: Every GOP candidate tried to get in on the Ahmadinejad-Columbia University bashing yesterday, but it appears Giuliani got the most attention for his tough words, thanks to Hannity.
That said, Romney did put money behind his criticism with a radio ad criticizing the UN for inviting the Iranian leader to speak. The ad is running in Iowa, South Carolina and Florida.
CONTINUED >>
USA Today previews Bush’s speech before the UN today. “The president who challenged the United Nations to take a hard line with Iraq will take a softer approach when he addresses Tuesday's annual meeting of the U.N. General Assembly. Important but relatively non-controversial issues such as illiteracy, poverty and African economic development will occupy much of President Bush's U.N. agenda, in contrast with previous years when terrorism or Iraq were the main topics.”
More: “Bush will follow his address today by meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki. It will be their first face-to-face encounter since a gunbattle this month that killed about a dozen Iraqis and prompted al-Maliki to criticize the role of U.S. private security contractors operating in Iraq outside his government's jurisdiction.”
In an hourlong interview with the Boston Globe's editorial board, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi wanted to make one thing clear: "We have to make it very clear to the American people that it was George Bush's war [but] it is now the Republicans in Congress's war." She expressed frustration that many view Democrats as having failed to end the war in Iraq after they were elected to majorities in the House and Senate in 2006, largely as a mandate to end the war. "The Republicans in the Senate have guarded the gate," Pelosi said, calling the Republicans' blocking of the Webb amendment a turning point.
CONTINUED >>
“Sen. Larry Craig (R-Idaho) should not be allowed to withdraw his guilty plea to charges of disorderly conduct because he fully understood the legal process leading up to the deal, the Minnesota prosecutor who handled the case contended in legal documents filed today,” the Washington Post writes. “In a 41-page motion that seeks to preserve Craig's guilty plea to misdemeanor disorderly conduct charges, prosecutor Christopher P. Renz charged that Craig was upset with the political results of his plea but has no legal grounds to overturn it.”
More: “‘The real basis for the defendant's motion -- displeasure with the outcome -- is not an appropriate basis for relief sought,’ wrote Renz, who noted that he spoke with Craig three times over a six-week period before the plea. ‘The court should also deny the defendant's motion as untimely because it was sought only as a political reaction.’”
NBC's Joel Seidman reports that another element of the mystery Craig is promised to be revealed today. According to Judy Smith -- the public relations guru to Craig's super-lawyer, Billy Martin -- we will know Tuesday whether Craig will fly back through the same Minneapolis airport where he was arrested and appear before a judge who he has asked to reverse his guilty plea.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Elissa Davis
Citing Hillary Clinton's devotion to the middle class, Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) endorsed Hillary Clinton for president. "Hillary Clinton is a seasoned, experienced leader who will be ready to lead this country on Day One," Bayh said during a news conference with Clinton.
Bayh, who previously was in the running for the Democratic nomination, is from a Republican-leaning state. Clinton said his endorsement "underscores my commitment for running a national campaign." She compared her presidential run to her previous Senate races, where she campaigned all over the state, including "red New York."
"I believed that I was running to be the Senator for the entire state,” Clinton said, “not a segment of the state, not a set of constituencies in the sate, but the entire state. I feel the very same way about my campaign for the presidency."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Abby LivingstonEdwards spent an hour today discussing his health-care plan at a forum hosted by Families USA and the Kaiser Family Foundation in downtown Washington, DC. After the forum, he was asked about Iranian President
Ahmadinejad's appearance at Columbia University. "I think denying him the ability to go to Ground Zero is clearly the right decision," Edwards said. "I personally find the things that he speaks about extraordinarily objectionable. And he is, he denies the Holocaust, he talks about wiping Israel off the face of the planet, he diatribes against America and what America represents. I find all those things abhorrent. I think this is for Columbia to decide whether they want a man like this to be able to speak at their university."
He described the differences between his plan and Hillary
Clinton's as, "They're in the weeds," but emphasized yet again that he came out with his plan seven months ago. Edwards also focused on reducing costs, wanting to enable the government to negotiate for prescription drugs with the pharmaceutical companies, allowing the purchase of drugs from Canada and ending drug company television advertising within constitutional legal limits. Another cost-saving measure he proposed affects those within his own previous profession: trial lawyers. Edwards suggested that those lawyers who bring to court frivolous lawsuits should be forced to bear the legal costs of such a case, rather than the patient.
From NBC's Tom Lea
The prosecutor in the Larry Craig case filed a "memorandum" to the court which states:
"The essence of the defendant's motion is that the Court should allow him to withdraw his plea because he was under the strain of a newspaper investigation and purportedly relied on the arresting officer's statements relating to a potential outcome. There is nothing about the circumstances of the Defendant's plea that comes close to surpassing the high bar of 'manifest justice' that must be reached for the Defendant to be granted the rare relief of plea withdrawal. The Defendant's plea to the elements of the crime of disorderly conduct is sufficient. In addition, denial of the Defendant's motion prevents further politicking and game playing om the part of the Defendant in relation to his plea.
"The Defendant unequivocally pled guilty to the crime of disorderly conduct. The Court should deny the Defendant's motion and uphold the plea that the Defendant made to this Court."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Candidates reacted today to the United Auto Workers strike at General Motors plants:
BIDEN: “I fully support the UAW's right to strike. American automakers have made promises to their hard-working employees and must do their best to uphold those commitments. Both sides in these talks are stuck between a rock and a hard place, and I urge them to return to the table and find a resolution as quickly as possible. Today's events remind us that American automakers need help with health care costs. To keep health care affordable I believe we have to help employers or union-run health plans with catastrophic costs to keep health care affordable for workers, retirees, and their families."
CLINTON: “There is a role for presidential leadership,” she said, adding that union leaders had sought a meeting with Bush but “they were rebuffed repeatedly. Finally there was a meeting that occurred with no follow-up."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Erin McPike and Domenico Montanaro
On the heels of headlines blaring Romney's revamped stump speech as a means to distance himself from the unpopular President Bush, Romney issued a statement this afternoon praising Bush for talking tough on the budget.
"I applaud the president for his message of budget restraint," the statement begins. But then it goes on: “Change in Washington begins with Republicans standing up for fiscal discipline.”
Republican candidates are clearly walking a fine line on the issue of President Bush. With his approval ratings low and widespread disapproval of the war in Iraq, is President Bush a help or a hindrance to Republican candidates?
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The 100,000-member Union of Bricklayers and Allied Craftworkers (BAC) endorsed Clinton today, the campaign announced.
“Hillary Clinton has the strength and experience to deliver the change America needs,” said BAC President John J. Flynn in a statement released by the campaign. “After years of an administration that has turned its back on working families, we need a President whose priorities are our priorities. …she’s worked hard for BAC members and we intend to work hard for her election.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
Giuliani spoke to a receptive audience in Portland, Maine, today at the National Troopers Coalition meeting. After his speech, he told Portland NBC affiliate WCSH that it was an "outrage" for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to speak at Columbia University. "His government is helping the people to kill American troops right now, today," Giuliani said.
He also got a few laughs when he said he would not answer an audience member's ringing cell phone. "I got in trouble for that a couple of days ago," he said. Afterward, Giuliani attended a fundraiser in Portland before heading back to New York for several others.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike
MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. -- While national GOP primary polls show what could become a protracted fight between Giuliani and Thompson, this weekend’s Republican Leadership Conference in Michigan revealed that right now the battle there might boil down to Romney and McCain.
Unlike his top three rivals who spoke before him, cameras didn’t swarm McCain when he made his way to the podium in the sprawling dining room of Mackinac’s Grand Hotel to speak before the dinner crowd. He may have been last in the order of the presidential contenders on the docket with his Saturday night pitch, but attendees gave him the warmest reception and buzzed about it afterward.
Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis said to reporters on Sunday morning, “I think John McCain gave the best speech I’ve ever seen him give. I told him that. It was from the heart, it was well-delivered.” Anuzis implied that McCain needed this kind of boost by indicating that there was some “anguish” among McCain supporters in the state leading up to the weekend’s event due to last week’s resignation by McCain’s former state chairman, Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli
KEENE, N.H. -- Tancredo, who skipped the NRA Convention in Washington on Friday, put his Second Amendment credentials on display here Sunday, serving as the Celebrity Guest Shooter at a fundraiser for local Republicans. “As opposed to other people who have made the statement, I have actually hunted all my life,” Tancredo said.
The Colorado congressman played the mark, meaning anyone who hit more targets than him in the three-phase competition was entered into a raffle for prizes, which included frozen turkeys. Tancredo, who did not use any of his own guns, joked after that he shot just poorly enough to ensure that everyone finished better than him. “It’s just what you have to do, right?” he asked.
“I think he did pretty well,” said Juliana Bergeron, chair of the Cheshire County GOP. “Everybody says it’s different if you’re not shooting with your own guns.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Romney is up with a new 60-second radio ad touting his refusal, as governor, of a state police escort for former Iranian President Mohammed Khatami when he was invited to Harvard to speak in 2006.
The ad begins airing today as part of the campaign's rotation in Iowa and South Carolina, and then Florida later in the week.
CLICK MORE FOR THE SCRIPT OF THE AD
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The former head of the Iowa Democratic Party, Gordon Fischer, endorsed Obama today on a conference call with reporters. Fischer said his reasons for supporting Obama is because of his electability, ability to be a change agent and policies.
“I am desperate to win the White House,” Fischer said. “I think Senator Obama has the best chance of all the Democrats. It’s not enough to just get Democrats out. You have to bring along Indendents and Republicans, and he’s in the best position to bring along independents and some Republicans.”
On electability, he said Obama would be help “down ballot candidates.” When asked if that was a shot at Clinton, he said he likes Clinton and thinks she’s electable, just not as electable as Obama. As a change agent, he said Obama brings “freshness” and a “new perspective” to the race. On his policies, Fischer, who said he and his wife Monica made the decision over the weekend, said he’s been “impressed” with Obama’s “bold ideas,” particularly his recent middle-class tax cut proposal.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The Clear Front-Runner: An important threshold has finally been crossed for Clinton: Even her opponents have joined the media in acknowledging that there is just one front-runner in the Democratic race. Considering where she started six months ago, it's a remarkable feat. She's done it without winning a single caucus or primary. Only Gore in '99 and Mondale in '83 were in this strong of a position in the last five contested Democratic contests. The question now is if and when Clinton has her next scare. The first one was during the first three months of the campaign, when Obama topped her in fundraising. If there is a downside to Clinton solidifying her front-runner status, it raises her expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire. Of course, Clinton supporters would argue she ALWAYS had high expectations she had to meet in those states.
VIDEO:
NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his firstread on Hillary Clinton's front-runner status plus some thoughts on the Michigan GOP straw poll.***
Romney’s Challenge: You get the impression that both Obama (in the Dem field) and Romney (in the GOP one) have sort of stalled. They’ve both met expectations but haven’t exceeded them -- and politics is often about exceeding expectations. For Romney in particular, he has to find a way to make the contests in Iowa and New Hampshire (which he’s leading) count. Will his strategy of portraying himself as the conservative change candidate pay off?
*** Trouble For The Dems? Before the first GOP presidential debate last spring, which was moderated by MSNBC’s Chris Matthews, First Read took a look at some of the problems afflicting today’s GOP (like Iraq, diversity, and competence in government). Pegged to Wednesday’s Democratic debate, moderated by NBC’s Tim Russert, we turn our attention this week to some of the Democrats’ potential problems heading into 2008. Today’s installment: independent voters. Polls typically show that about 30%-35% of Americans identify themselves as conservatives, versus about 20%-25% of Americans who identify themselves as liberals. That means that Democrats, to win a national election, have to do well with independent voters. It didn’t happen in 2004, when John Kerry -- per the exit polls -- narrowly won the independent vote, 49%-48%.
*** Independents Day: Last year, by comparison, House Democratic candidates creamed Republicans with independent voters, 57%-39%, which helped them regain control of Congress. Will Democrats keep that up in 2008? Maybe, maybe not. In the April NBC/WSJ poll, Democrats held a 21-point advantage with independents in a generic presidential ballot question. But in this month’s poll, that lead shrunk to eight points. What’s more, the Democratic front-runner -- Hillary Clinton -- had a 39%-42% fav/unfav rating with independents in the most recent NBC/WSJ survey. Compare that with Giuliani’s 39%-34% fav/unfav. And we have yet to delve into the latest fall phenomenon: Democratic voter disenchantment with the new Democratic Congress (which we’ll discuss more later this week).
*** The Born-Again Fiscal Conservative: In what’s appearing to be a budget showdown between the White House and Congress, President Bush makes a statement on the budget this morning, in which he’s expected to accuse the Democrats of fiscal irresponsibility. Is the pot calling the kettle black here? Over the weekend, the Heritage Foundation’s Brian Reidl told the New York Times that the federal government has grown at a rate of 7% a year under Bush; under Clinton, it was 3.5% a year. While the Iraq war has been a big chunk of that increase, Reidl added that nonmilitary discretionary spending has grown faster under Bush than Clinton. So why is Bush going after Democrats here? Is it because he’s itching for a fight?
*** On The Trail: Clinton is in DC and she picks up an endorsement from Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh; Edwards is also in DC, where he unveils his strategy to combat HIV/AIDS; Giuliani travels to Maine, where he speaks to the National Troopers Coalition; Kucinich appears on Leno; McCain is in Chicago and Milwaukee; Obama is in New York and Chicago; and Romney heads to Santa Clara, CA, where he holds an “Ask Mitt Anything” town hall.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 26 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 43 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 54 days
Countdown to Iowa: 112 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 117 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 134 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 407 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 484 days
NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy reports… Attendees of the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference at the Grand Hotel on Mackinac Island, MI over the weekend were billing Fred Thompson's much anticipated speech on Saturday as an important first impression. But from the outset, Thompson was suffering from an organizational disadvantage caused mostly by the absence of a fulltime Michigan staff, which caused the campaign to have virtually no physical presence on the island, including relatively few Thompson '08 signs and only a handful of volunteers.
This stacked up poorly with Romney’s better-organized operation. The Romney camp provided buses, hotel accommodations and ferry tickets for well over 60 members of College Republican groups from nearby schools to travel to the remote conference on Mackinac Island. In many cases, the campaign also paid to credential its volunteers, ensuring that a significant number of supporters were a eligible to stand outside the conference's events, passing out stickers and encouraging people to vote for Mitt in the weekend's straw poll.
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: The New York senator hit all the Sunday morning shows yesterday, including NBC’s Meet the Press. The Washington Post says that she “demonstrated a particularly senatorial skill: the art of the filibuster… Above all, though, in a morning of appearances that yielded virtually no news, Clinton illustrated her ability to talk. And talk. And talk.”
The New York Daily News called it “TV’s Tour de Hillary.” On Meet the Press, Clinton touted her ability to withstand Republicans’ “withering attacks.” “I think I've proven that I not only can survive them but surpass them," she said.
The
Sunday New York Times had a CW-setting piece about Clinton's place in the campaign. "She has been challenged for fund-raising supremacy and news media attention by Senator Barack Obama of Illinois. Former Senator John Edwards of North Carolina beat her to the punch in introducing big policy proposals. But nothing that her main rivals have done has so far has derailed Mrs. Clinton, leading them to begin rolling out aggressive new strategies aimed primarily at her, including courting black voters in South Carolina and stepping up attacks."
CONTINUED >>
The Des Moines Register recruited 10 likely GOP caucus-goers and finds the race to be very fluid. "The perfect president would be someone with the intellectual capacity of Newt Gingrich, the leadership of Rudy Giuliani, the communication skills of Fred Thompson, and the toughness of John McCain, said John Schaffner, 63, of Altoona… Of the 10 members of the GOP group, seven said they feel they have made progress personally and financially in the last four years. Three said they stayed the same. None felt worse off. ... Whom do they favor? One member of the interview group was firmly behind McCain; one was for Tom Tancredo; and one was for Ron Paul. Two were leaning toward Giuliani but also found Mitt Romney intriguing."
Speaking of fluid, the New York Times on Sunday noted the same thing in its own CW-setting piece. Still, read between the lines and one gets the sense that the BIG showdown for the top three (Rudy, Thompson and Romney) will be in South Carolina. All have something to prove in that early state.
CONTINUED >>
It's official -- sort of: Florida Democrats will not be represented at the DNC convention next year, unless the eventual Democratic nominee intervenes. The Florida Democratic Party plans to insist on holding its primary on Jan. 29, forcing the DNC to punish the state officially.
Looking ahead to the general election, Newsweek takes a look at the truce that Democrats are trying to seek with evangelical Christians.
The AP’s Nancy Benac on which party’s leading on ideas: “The Democrats who are running for president are flush with policy proposals, position papers and fact sheets. The leading Republican contenders, not so much.”
And so the conservative media is right? The New York Times admits to giving MoveOn a discount for the group’s ad attacking General Petraeus. They claim it's a mistake... That'll be believed at Newsbusters and Rush.
Yesterday, MoveOn executive director Eli Pariser released this statement regarding the ad rate: “Now that the Times has revealed this mistake for the first time, and while we believe that the $142,083 figure is above the market rate paid by most organization, out of an abundance of caution we have decided to pay that rate for this ad. We will therefore wire the $77,083 difference to the Times tomorrow (Monday, September 24, 2007). We call on Mayor Giuliani, who received exactly the same ad deal for the same price, to pay the corrected fee also.” What say you, Giuliani campaign?
House GOP leader John Boehner is
not happy with NRCC Chair Tom Cole and his staff. Apparently, Boehner wants Cole to fire his top two NRCC aides, and Cole is threatening to quit if forced to do that. Isn't this just simply a coach blaming the coordinator for having to play a tough road while also under-manned? Seems like frustrations are boiling over.
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller
At a middle school in Des Moines this afternoon, Edwards called for full funding of No Child Left Behind, universal preschool, better teacher training and mentoring, and more funding for struggling school districts. Edwards gave the speech on the same day he unveiled Iowa Education Professionals for Edwards, a group of 214 Iowa teachers who are supporting him.
"Education is an issue that's enormously personal for me," Edwards said. He recalled that his daughter Emma Claire went through third grade with a good teacher, who was forced to teach to the end-of-the-year test. He called for teachers to have more control of their classrooms and for increased pay, especially for those serving in low-income districts.
He proposed a national teaching university, more scholarships for high-achieving students who want to teach, and mentoring for young teachers.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger
Giuliani told the National Rifle Association much of what they wanted to hear Friday about his support for Second Amendment rights, but he left the conference with few converts.
“I think he is sincere. I just don’t know if he truly believes it down deep inside,” said Thomas Crum, a retired trucking executive from Scottsdale, AZ. “I have a little difference with him just beginning to realize what his position really is.”
Most members of the gun lobby who attended Friday’s “A Celebration of American Values” conference said they were encouraged by Giuliani’s appearance and what he said about support for gun rights. But most also said they were concerned about his track record supporting gun control as mayor of New York City, and favored other candidates in the Republican presidential primary.
Bob Bell, a salesman from Clarkesville, MD, said he respected Giuliani’s leadership during the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, but preferred Thompson, a longtime supporter of Second Amendment rights. Bell said Giuliani’s mayoral record -- including his advocacy for the assault weapons ban and lawsuits against gun manufacturers -- weighed heavy on him. “He was a mayor of New York City, and try and get a gun permit up there,” he said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
Yesterday, Biden's campaign blasted Richardson for changing his position on troop withdrawal from Iraq. Then, just hours later at the AARP forum, Biden -- with a smile on his face, as always -- jabbed the New Mexico governor after Richardson talked about his experience dealing with health care.
"My good friend from New Mexico, God love him. His state's a couple million people," Biden said. "Give me a break. He can pull that together. Pull together 300 million people. That's like saying, you know, 'I played halfback when I was in high school; I can play in the pros' -- a different deal."
Well today, the Biden camp is once again going after Richardson -- this time charging that the New Mexico governor imposed an $8-a-day tax (which he later repealed) on nursing home beds to make up for a shortfall in Medicaid.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Lauren Appelbaum
Will this line work with Democratic primary voters? For the general election, sure. But primary voters?
Here is Richardson today addressing the NRA confab, via videotape (emphasis is ours): "As a governor, a westerner, a supporter of our individual freedoms, and a Democrat, I urge all NRA members to stay involved in the election of candidates of both political parties. In America, we have a long and honorable tradition of solving our problems in a bi-partisan manner. Your voice needs to be heard. When I'm president, it will be. Today, I am proud to join you in celebrating freedom. And I thank you for your support."
Richardson's support for gun rights isn't a surprise, however. As NBC's Chuck Todd has constantly said, Richardson is perhaps the NRA's favorite presidential candidate of this cycle -- from either party.
Richardson spokesman Tom Reynolds tells First Read that the governor's position on guns is a winner in the primaries. "In a state like Iowa, gun ownership and hunting is something that's an important value to caucus-goers," he says.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Fred Thompson, who hopes to have support from conservative groups like the NRA, enjoyed a warm reception. He called for the protection of all basic rights. "We are here today not just because we support the Second Amendment," Thompson said, "we are here today for our support of the rest of the Constitution."
Asked about regulation at gun shows, Thompson responded, "Well, having just come from one --" referring to the gun show he visited in Florida last week. After some laughter, Thompson said the government should not restrict the rights of private citizens, in the home or at gun shows.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum
While addressing the NRA, McCain delivered several applause lines by attacking supporters of gun control, specifically Democrats. He defended gun owners' rights and outlined three gun control “myths” opponents use to support gun control. On “the hunting myth," McCain also implicitly took a shot at his Republican opponent, Romney.
“If you show your bona fides by hunting ducks or varmints or quail,” McCain said, “it makes up for support for gun control. This myth overlooks a fundamental truth: the Second Amendment is not about hunting; it is about freedom.”
And later he took his planned shot at Giuliani: “Some even call you ‘extremists,’” McCain said. “My friends, gun owners are not extremists; you are the core of modern America.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray
As mentioned earlier today, during his NRA speech, Giuliani's cellphone rang and he answered it. It was wife Judy on the phone.
We mentioned we've seen this before. In fact, a rival campaign sends us a YouTube clip of today's phone call and one from June.
From NBC's Andy Merten
Giuliani, who in the past has advocated gun control, was cordially received by the NRA today, centering his remarks on his now-familiar mantra -- borrowed from Ronald Reagan -- that "If you're my 80 percent friend, you're not my 20 percent enemy." He continued to channel from the former president, asserting that Reagan's "Peace through Strength" applies to law enforcement at home. "We need to step up enforcement against gun crimes and leave law-abiding citizens alone," he said, adding to heavy applause, "Time spent focusing on law-abiding, legal gun owners is time taken away from arresting and prosecuting the criminals who use guns."
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The GOP presidential front-runner made a pointed effort to present himself as a honest leader who will be upfront about any disagreements he may have with a constituency. "I think there's a certain value in knowing what you agree with and what you disagree with someone about." He concluded his speech, "I would love to have your support in the future, but mostly, I would like us to respect each other."
Giuliani got his best reception when he digressed from the topic of gun control and revisited his recent feud with MoveOn. "We passed a line that we should not allow any American political organization to pass," he said, decrying the decision of 24 Democratic senators -- including Hillary Clinton -- to vote against yesterday's resolution to shame the anti-war group for its ad attacking General Petraeus.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck ToddGOP pollster Bill McInturff is leaving the
McCain campaign. The separation is amicable, and the campaign will go without pollster for the time being. McInturff will return as the Republican half of the NBC/Wall Street Journal polling team, beginning with the next survey.
From NBC's Andy Merten and NBC/NJ's Matt Berger
RESTON, Va. -- While Giuliani will be addressing a potentially skeptical crowd later today at the National Rifle Association convention in DC, he started the morning off with a breakfast speech here to a business technology group, an audience with whom he is certainly more in his element. He lauded the use of information technology in the military and intelligence community, saying, "Government has to figure out how to respond to that" to decrease its size and become more effective, but warned, "Democrats will put a lid on that growth."
Regarding today's expected veto of S-CHIP, the States' Children Health Insurance Program, by President
Bush, the former mayor said that he supports the president because some states would expand coverage to families making 400 percent above the poverty level. "We're going to take people off private insurance and put them on government insurance -- that's a disaster," he said.
Rudy received his loudest applause after saying that he hopes Congress will approve extending the moratorium on state and local taxation of Internet usage. He also was met with enthusiasm for his call for greater use of a "technology fence" to supplement cracking down on illegal immigration.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
At the NRA conference, while GOP Sen.
John Thune was speaking, a woman rushed into the ballroom holding a sign that said "honk for peace" on one side and showed a picture of dead children on the other side. She yelled "Don't Iraq Iran" and addressed the senator directly. "Please senator, don't Iraq Iran. Stop killing the children. You are all accomplices to war crimes. I will not stand any more bloodshed." A NRA member yelled at security, repeatedly saying "How the hell did she get in here? Get her out of here."
Thune, after the woman was forcefully removed, talked about rights and said basic rights included her right to speak her mind. Then he went on with his speech.
Later, another protest occurred when
McCain was speaking. Two women walked right in, making peace signs with hands and yelling for the troops to come home. After they were removed, McCain said, "Well, my friends, we beat you yesterday, we beat you the day before, and we'll best you today." He received a standing ovation. Then he implored the Democrats to reject the MoveOn ad.
From NBC/National Journal's Athena Jones
Former President
Bill Clinton was on Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” last night to talk about his latest book on philanthropy. He touched on many of the same themes he often visits when discussing his wife’s presidential run, saying that he thinks she’s the best qualified candidate; that he’d campaign for her even if they weren’t married; and that if she wins, he’ll support her and do whatever she asks of him.
Stewart tried to make real news by asking the president about money in politics. In response, Clinton talked about the difficulty of raising money to run a campaign, especially for members of Congress, who he said are sleep-deprived partly as a result of all the fundraising they have to do to stay in office. Clinton said that there should be a way for them and their competitors to run for election without having to go out five nights a week to raise the money they need to advertise on television and answer the attacks of their challengers. He said if this could be done “America would work better.”
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
***
Rudy, get your gun: We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: Giuliani’s speech today to the NRA -- and more importantly, how that speech is received -- is a big moment for the campaign. His record on guns is potentially more problematic with conservatives than his past statements on abortion or gay rights. Will the audience buy his argument that gun control should be left up to the states (which, by the way, is similar to what Howard Dean said on the issue in ’04)? Rudy isn’t the sole Republican presidential candidate who will be there. McCain, Thompson, Giuliani, Huckabee, and Gingrich (in that order) are addressing the NRA conference in DC today. Plus, Romney (“varmits"!), Richardson (a Democrat!), and Hunter will speak to the confab by videotape. In particular, Thompson has an opportunity to shine at the event, especially after getting dissed by James Dobson. Can he seize it?
*** Quick thoughts on last night’s forum: Did Clinton really refer to the "first Clinton Administration"? We rewound the TiVo and sure enough, she did. Talk about growing confidence... Meanwhile, the budding Biden vs. Richardson rivalry (is it some weird Secretary of State primary?) could be fun. Biden's clearly now aiming for the most gettable candidate for him in Iowa. Edwards once again showed his hesitancy in being overly aggressive to an Iowa audience. When given the chance to hit Clinton over lobbyist influence for her health care plan, he didn't take the bait (and instead praised her plan). But he tried more subtle digs. Chris Dodd was downright fiery. He was not quite as tough on Clinton at the forum as he was in an AP interview earlier in the afternoon, but he did attempt to create contrast with her and all of his rivals. The best part of this forum: With only five people on stage, one could tell the candidates LOVED it. Don't be surprised if Kucinich and Gravel stop getting invited to more forums debates once the calendar turns to October.
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Questions for Obama: The Democratic front-runner who didn’t show at yesterday’s AARP, Barack Obama, holds a “senior” town hall meeting in Ames, IA -- that, per the campaign, brings together senior citizens and high school seniors. But if Obama is talking to seniors in Iowa today, the question becomes: Why he didn’t talk to them at last night’s forum? It might have saved him from being dubbed the forum’s “big loser” by chief Iowa pundit David Yepsen. The other question hovering over Obama’s campaign is why he chose not to vote on yesterday’s Senate GOP resolution denouncing MoveOn. Clinton voted no on it, but Obama didn’t vote at all. Obama issued a statement saying that by not casting a vote, “I registered my protest against this empty politics.” But that statement came two and a half hours after First Read asked for a response. It was a strong statement, but why not say it in a more public way (i.e. verbalize it)?
*** Playing the outsider card: Speaking of Obama, he’s up with a new TV ad in Iowa on health care, which seems pegged to his senior town hall in the state. “Washington’s talked about health-care reform and reformed nothing. I’ve got a plan to cut costs and cover everyone. But unless we stop the bickering and the lobbyists, we’ll be in the same place 20 years from now,” he says in it. “I’m Barack Obama, and I approve this message because to fix health care, we have to fix Washington.” Doesn’t that last line sound very familiar to the new ad Romney is running? "If we're going to change Washington, Republicans have to put our own house in order,” the former Massachusetts governor says. “It's time for a change. And change begins with us.” Change is all the rage, and candidates in both parties realize the most authentic change agent is eventually going to get rewarded.
*** Iowa is just around the corner: For what seems like an eternity, we’ve been talking about how early this presidential race has started. Well, if you haven’t noticed -- whether you’re a candidate, voter, or journalist covering the contest -- it’s not so early anymore. The Iowa caucuses are just slightly more than three months away. Those caucuses, of course, signal only the beginning to a campaign season that will end about 14 months from today.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Biden and Dodd campaign in Iowa; Edwards also is in the state, where he delivers a policy address on education; Giuliani has already spoken to the Northern Virginia Technology Council; Kucinich talks to a union in Dayton, OH; and Romney is in Illinois. Also, the Biennial Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference begins today, and it will hear from the GOP candidates today and over the weekend.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 29 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 46 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 57 days
Countdown to Iowa: 115 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 120 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 137 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 410 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 487 days
The
New York Times covers the passage of yesterday’s Senate nonbinding resolution denouncing MoveOn. “Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut, both Democratic candidates for president, voted against the resolution, which passed 72 to 25. But curiously absent from the vote was Senator Barack Obama of Illinois, also a Democratic candidate for president, who had canceled a campaign appearance in South Carolina so he could be in Washington for votes.”
VIDEO:
NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the politics of the "Petraeus-Betray us" adThe
Washington Post tries to put the controversy surrounding MoveOn into perspective. "Yesterday, an organization so small its 17 employees don't even have a central office, found itself under attack by not only President Bush, who said the ad was ‘disgusting,’ but also by the Democratic-controlled Senate, which passed a resolution 72 to 25 expressing its own outrage. Many Democrats blamed the group for giving moderate Republicans a ready excuse for staying with Bush and for giving Bush and his supporters a way to divert attention away from the war.”
More: “In an e-mail to its members last night, the group acknowledged that the content of the ad might have angered its allies but argued that a larger issue is at stake. ‘Maybe you liked our General Petraeus ad. Maybe you thought the language went too far,’ they wrote. ‘But make no mistake: this is much bigger than one ad.’”
And interestingly, "in a conference call with MoveOn members last night, Pariser acknowledged that some of the group's members did not like the ad. But, he said, ‘MoveOn is going to be as strong as ever.’ He added, ‘We definitely will be putting pressure on Democrats, and especially those who voted against us, in the near future, and we are currently working on the best way to do that.’”
The AP: “Senate Democrats defiantly charged ahead yesterday with legislation ordering troops home from Iraq, still lacking the votes to win but armed with the mantra that Republicans, along with President Bush, now own the war.”
The Los Angeles Times notes how Senate Democrats have been stymied on Iraq.
The Democratic candidates -- minus Obama, in particular -- debated in Iowa at an AARP-sponsored forum. Much of the discussion focused on health care. Biden said, "It's not the plan, it's the man or woman pushing it." Richardson said there doesn’t need to be a new tax to pay for universal health care. Edwards took issue. "It is time to tell people the truth,” he said. “And we cannot have universal health care for free.” Biden took the sharpest attack of the night, criticizing Richardson’s experience as governor of New Mexico. "That's like saying, 'I played halfback when I was in high school; I can play in the pros,' " Biden said. Dodd was critical of the Bush administration on social security: “It took the accumulation of 42 presidents to acquire the debt that one president has in just six years; it's a stunning statistic.”
The Daily Iowan: "Though the other candidates at the forum all had negative things to say about the Bush administration, they were more willing than Rodham Clinton to criticize their fellow Democrats."
As he has in recent debates,
Biden may have been the most compelling candidate to watch at the forum. His rant against Richardson and then, even, Clinton was perhaps one of the livelier moments. “‘I love Hillary Clinton. I'm getting beat up for saying some nice things about her,’ he said. But ‘let's be frank about this. What's changed to make you think Hillary is going to be able to put together the 15 percent of Republicans’ who will be needed to enact any overhaul of the health care system?”
The Des Moines Register's Yepsen calls Obama the big loser of the forum for not showing up. "Obama also faces real questions about his experience and whether he’s got enough to be a good president. He missed a chance to ease those fears by showing competency on two complicated issues important to most Americans, not just seniors. With him not on the field, the rest of the candidates had a better chance to shine and all did well."
When Steve and Jane Wagoner arrived at the Divided We Fail forum in Davenport last night, they were undecided, but by the time it was over they declared themselves Hillary Clinton fans, NBC/National Journal’s Tricia Miller reports. Jane named Edwards as her second choice. "He's got some really interesting things to say, but she's more presidential," she said. Steve, meanwhile, said his second choice would be Joe Biden, but insisted that he could be happy with any of the candidates onstage.
Bloomberg News looks at how gun owners aren't ready to believe that either Giuliani or Romney has become pro-gun. But the two most pro-gun top tier candidates -- McCain and Thompson -- supported McCain-Feingold, something the NRA in particular has railed against.
GINGRICH: In a roundtable with reporters yesterday, Gingrich outlined his beefs with a number of things, including the political system, Washington Republicans, the elite left, and other traditional Gingrich targets. He also singled out praise (as he's done before) for the new French leader Nicolas Sarkozy. As for a timeline on running for president, he's allowing a political aide take the month of October to see if he can secure financial commitments of $30 million. If he does, then expect Gingrich to get in. He even has a couple of announcement dates circled on the calendar: Nov 6 or Nov 13. The 6th is one year out from the general, and the 13th would be the 28th anniversary of Reagan's announcement in '79.
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN: Before Biden’s back-and-forths last night with Richardson at last night’s AARP forum, the Delaware senator’s campaign took issue with Richardson’s recent statement that he’s the only Democratic candidate with a concrete plan to end the war -- and pointed out that Richardson had not always been in favor of pulling out all US forces from Iraq. “Governor Richardson is right that he represents both experience and change -- he has a lot of experience changing his mind on matters both large and small,” Biden campaign manager Luis Navarro said in a statement.
CLINTON: “Norman Hsu, the Democratic fund-raiser with a habit of fleeing the law, confessed to F.B.I. agents last week that he had swindled investors in what the government describes as a multimillion-dollar Ponzi scheme, and acknowledged pressuring at least some of them to contribute to political campaigns, prosecutors said in a criminal complaint unsealed yesterday,” the New York Times writes. “The complaint does not contend that Mr. Hsu confessed either to so vast a swindle or to reimbursing the donors. Nor does it specify which candidates received the illegal or coerced contributions, or who made them. But the authorities confirmed that one of the candidates was Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, whose presidential campaign has already said that it intends to return $850,000 to more than 200 people whose donations were bundled by Mr. Hsu.”
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times: “President Bush … threatened on Thursday to veto a bill expanding a popular children’s health insurance program, calling it ‘a step toward federalization of health care.’ The program expires Sept. 30, and Congress is on the verge of renewing it by providing coverage to an additional 4 million children over the 6.6 million already enrolled — at an additional cost of $35 billion over five years. Mr. Bush says the bill would expand a program aimed at helping the poor beyond its original intent.”
More: “The veto threat is just one of nearly a dozen the White House has issued recently aimed at a variety of bills including measures on education spending and financing for medical research. With the fiscal year ending Sept. 30, Mr. Bush and Congressional Democrats are headed for a showdown over spending similar to the one that preceded the government shutdown of 1995.”
The second GOP House retirement this week: Illinois Rep. Jerry Weller is calling it quits. He was within a few weeks of becoming “embattled," thanks to some controversies involving Latin American land holdings. The district itself is Republican leaning but just competitive enough that Democrats will likely target it.
And the FBI has been recording Alaska GOP Sen. Ted Stevens' phone calls. Stevens is up for re-election in 2008. Has he accumulated so much baggage that he can't win, even in Alaska? It's starting to look that way.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- Back in the spin room, Sen. Chris Dodd continued his harsh words for Hillary Clinton's "scars" line about the lessons she learned from the health care policy collapse of 1993. "[If] we're talking about leadership that can get a job done, and what you point to is a point in time when policy failed, and leadership failed, it's a little difficult for me to accept that's the kind of experience you want to highlight." He went on to say that Clinton isn't the only one who suffered scars from the nineties implosion. "It's also the scars that millions of Americans have paid because fifteen years ago we didn't get the job done because of mismanagement."
And, speaking for Joe Biden, state senator Joe Seng (D-Davenport) said there's a method to the senator's jokes about the rumors that he's running for Secretary of State. "I think he had a reason for that, and I think he's exploited it," he said of Biden's laughing mention of the media speculation about the job he's "really" angling for. "He's the only candidate who's been suggested as Secretary of State, and for good reason."
That's it from Davenport. Goodnight!
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- That's it for the forum. I'm off to the Spin Room. Stay tuned for what the campaigns have to say about their guy (or woman's) performance tonight!
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- Here's the first mention of the absent Obama. Woodruff asked Richardson and Edwards about Obama's plan to slash taxes on the poor and middle class. Both used the question to detail their own plans to strengthen the middle class, but neither took the bait to talk about the no-show rival.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
DAVENPORT, IA -- It might not be the number-one issue for all of the voters here in the audience -- most of whom have a strong health care focus -- but Iraq's still the elephant in the room at any debate. Woodruff saved it for the final question, and it was a toughie: A year after you leave office, how many residual US troops would still be in Iraq?
Biden said it depends on what "this guy [Bush] leaves me" as far as progress on a political solution in Iraq. Clinton echoed the same: "It would be irresponsible to stand here and tell you what's going to happen" without knowing what the situation on the ground looks like in two and a half years. But she repeated her line that "We will have a reasonable, prudent, careful plan" for withdrawal. Edwards, for his part, wants to pull out all combat troops but said he acknowledges that residual forces will have to stay to protect diplomatic and humanitarian workers in the region.
Richardson says "Zero troops!" (Note that without Gravel and Kucinich in the game, this is his chance to really differeniate his stance on this issue.) But Dodd's close on his heels, and he's still holding out hope that his fellow senators will be able to act for change before Bush leaves office. On Woodruff's 2010 deadline, he says "We shouldn't have to wait that long."
From NBC/National Journal's Tricia Miller
DAVENPORT, IA -- Edwards knows his audience. The audience was pleased with his loud support for labor unions. (Labor powerhouse SEIU is part of the Divided We Fail coalition that organized tonight's forum. There are likely a lot of members in tonight's audience. And they haven't endorsed yet.)
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
Responding to a question on home care givers, Biden received loud applause for saying "we should be able to compensate them in the same way we compensate people for taking care of a child," comparing taking care of an aging parent to taking care of a foster child.
Richardson, mid-answer, had to stop to wave his hand in front of his face. A fly was bothering him. (This from the guy who's started playing Carlos Santana's "Smooth" as his entry music.)
Chris Dodd's got to be thankful that another candidate had a bug incident. The bug in his hair during the last ABC Democratic debate found its way onto Youtube.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- One of the biggest applause lines so far tonight goes to Clinton, who invoked her (popular) husband's presidential policies and the (unpopular) Iraq war in the same sentence. "Let's get back to doing what was working in the nineties," she said. "Stop taking money from the Social Security fund for tax cuts and funding the war in Iraq."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT , IA -- Here's a pair we haven't seen duking it out before. First, Richardson invoked his executive experience as governor: "I'm the only one here who's dealt with health care directly" as governor of New Mexico.
Biden disagreed, saying that Richardson translating his gubernatorial experience into White House cred would be like a highschool halfback taking his game to the pros. But he added that he means no disrespect. "He's a great governor. He'd make a great Secretary of State!" (He's poking fun at himself here, too -- he pointed out that the press widely speculates that he's angling to be Clinton's Condi.)
Did Richardson seem a tad bit hurt when he responded? "You seem to be denigrating experience, here, Joe. It's one of your biggest assets."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- Dodd's not happy with Clinton's focus on what she learned from the failure of her health care plan twelve years ago. He says "it's not enough to talk about what's been tried and failed." (He said the same in an interview with the Associated Press earlier today, when he fired hard at the way Clinton is framing that past experience. He told the AP, "it should be far more than a parable of personal growth and maturation ... It was mismanaged terribly at the time.")
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- She earned a chuckle by launching into her response to Edwards with "Well, been there, done that," harkening back to her failed mid-nineties fight as First Lady for universal health care. "It was kind of lonely back then." Ouch.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- Edwards pointed out that he was the first Democratic candidate to put forward his health care plan. (Clinton, who rolled out the last phase of her proposal here in Iowa on Monday, was the last.) "I'm glad to see others speaking out on this issue now."
Minutes later, Woodruff asked him to critique Clinton's policy. He said it's "a good plan," and noted its similarities with his own. Grinning, he added, "It's actually a lot like my plan, so it's hard to criticize it."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- Edwards just took his first implicit shot at Clinton, whose health care plan he's slammed for giving too much wiggle room to insurance companies. He says that lobbyists and insurers "stand between Americans and the health care they need ... We desperately need a president who's actually willing to stand up to them."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA --The first question to Richardson -- on Medicare. He managed to work his Iraq policy into his answer right out of the gate. He compared the cost of treating cancer to the cost of the war, and he says he'll use the money currently spent on the war to cover health care costs at home after he ends the conflict.
From NBC/National Journal's Carrie Dann
DAVENPORT, IA -- I'm here in Davenport's Adler Theater ready to liveblog tonight's Democratic forum, sponsored by AARP and Iowa Public Television. The forum is organized via the Divided We Fail voter education effort -- a coalition of AARP, labor giant SEIU, and business organizations. Tonight's moderator will be PBS's Judy Woodruff, and questions will focus on the issues that most affect AARP's members -- such as health care, financial security, home ownership, and pensions.
When we arrived in Davenport this afternoon, the always-present sign wars were well underway. Across the street from the theater entrance, a forest of satellite truck masts and tall candidate signs had sprung up, and the Clinton, Edwards, and Biden campaigns were out in force. Representation from those three campaigns - in the form of sign-lofting chant-singing supporters - was pretty equal (slight advantage: Clinton) but the Dodd and Richardson camps were represented only by a handful of signs posted in the grass.
Clinton, Edwards, Biden, Dodd, and Richardson will all be present here tonight, but one big story going into the forum is the absence of one of the race's frontrunners. Sen. Barack Obama declined the invitation, citing the campaign's new policy - announced in August - to restrict most forum and debate participation to events sanctioned by the DNC.
Stay tuned... We're almost underway.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Obama's presidential campaign gives First Read this statement from Obama about not voting today on the Senate measure condemning the MoveOn.org print ad criticizing Gen. David Petraeus.
"The focus of the United States Senate should be on ending this war, not on criticizing newspaper advertisements," Obama says. "This amendment was a stunt designed only to score cheap political points while what we should be doing is focusing on the deadly serious challenge we face in Iraq. It's precisely this kind of political game-playing that makes most Americans cynical about Washington's ability to solve America's problems. By not casting a vote, I registered my protest against this empty politics. I registered my views on the ad itself the day it appeared.
Obama goes on to say, "All of us respect the service of General Petraeus and all of our brave men and women in uniform. The way to honor that service is to give them a mission that is responsible, not to vote on amendments like the Cornyn amendment while we continue to pursue the wrong policy in Iraq."
From NBC's Ken Strickland
Senate Democrats fell well short of the 60 votes needed to pass the Democrats' strongest measure for troops withdrawal. The amendment offered by Russ Feingold (D) failed by a vote of 28-70.
The Feingold amendment would have forced the president to redeploy most troops out of Iraq by July 2008. And it also would have cut funding for the war -- except fpr the the remaining troops used for going after al Qaeda, protecting US infrastructure/personnel, and training Iraqi forces.
No Republicans supported the measure. More than half the Democratic caucus did, including presidential candidates Clinton, Dodd, and Obama. (Biden is in Iowa)
The other Democrats supporting it were... Akaka (HI), Boxer (CA), Brown (OH), Byrd (WV), Cardin (MD), Durbin (IL), Feingold (WI), Feinstein (CA), Harkin (IA), Inouye (HI), Kennedy (MA), Kerry (MA), Klobuchar (MN), Kohl (WI), Lautenberg (NJ), Leahy (VT), Menendez (NJ), Murray (WA), Reid (NV), Rockefeller (WV), Sanders (VT), Schumer (NY), Stabenow (MI), Whitehouse (RI), and Wyden (OR).
From NBC’s Abby Livingston
Asked about the Jena Six case today on his way into a San Antonio fundraiser, Thompson said, "I don't know anything about it."
Also, Thompson revealed that he is a descendant of Davy Crockett’s, the most famous defender of the Alamo, the city’s most famous landmark. "I'm just kind of following the path of my ancestor, Davy Crockett from Lawrence County, Tennessee,” Thompson said. “I hope I don't have to stay forever like he did, but I'm sure enjoying the time I got here. "
Apparently in June, Thompson confused Daniel Boone for Davy Crockett on his Web site.
From NBC's Ken Strickland
A nonbinding resolution repudiating a MoveOn print ad passed the Senate with 22 Democrats joining all Republican senators. Most of the those Democrats represent so-called "red" or "purple" states. The final vote was 72-25.
Democrats voting yes for the GOP-backed measure were Baucus (MT), Bayh (IN), Cardin (MD), Carper (DE), Casey (PA), Conrad (ND), Dorgan (ND), Feinstein (CA), Johnson (SD), Klobuchar (MN), Kohl (WI), Landrieu (LA), Leahy (VT), Lincoln (AR), McCaskill (MO), Mikulski (MD), Nelson (NE), Nelson (FL), Pryor (AR), Salazar (CO), Tester (MT), and Webb (VA).
A softer resolution that Democrats offered failed to muster the 60 votes required for passage. That bill condemned all personal attacks against military personnel, but didn't identify MoveOn by name. That vote was 51-46.
Presidential votes:
-- Clinton voted for Dem bill, against the GOP bill
-- Obama voted for Dem bill, was a no-show on the GOP bill
-- Biden was in Iowa and did not vote on either bill
-- Dodd voted for Dem bill, against the GOP bill
-- McCain and Brownback voted for the GOP bill, against the Dem bill
From NBC/National Journal's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Here is
Thompson campaign spokeswoman Karen Hanretty's response to evangelical leader
James Dobson's critical remarks about Thompson: "Fred has a 100% pro-life voting record and believes strongly in returning authority to the levels of government closest to families and communities and protecting states from further intrusion by the federal government and activist judges. We're confident that as voters get to know Fred, they'll appreciate his conservative principles and that he is the one conservative in this race who can win the nomination and go on to defeat the Democratic nominee."
ON THE TRAIL: A look at what’s happening out on the campaign trail from our NBC/National Journal campaign embeds.
Here’s some news from the Clinton, Obama and Romney camps:
OBAMA: NBC/National Journal’s Aswini Anburajan reports that late last night the Obama campaign canceled a town hall in Rock Hill, S.C., where 1,600 people had tickets because of a Senate Iraq vote today. He had planned to hold a private meeting with local Democratic party officials in a state where half of the Democratic voting populace is black. Obama spokesman Kevin Griffis said, "This is not something a campaign ever wants to do ... These [Iraq] votes sometimes are even more important than the campaign."
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The Rock Hill event could have allowed Obama to clear the air on the issue of the Jena Six. He was criticized by Jesse Jackson, an Obama supporter, for not speaking out strongly enough about the case. Jackson later said he was misquoted. "Barack Obama has said more in support of the Jena Six than any of the other candidates in the race," said Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL), an Obama supporter, who added that he was giving Jackson the benefit of the doubt on his Obama comments.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Mark Murray
The Senate will take a vote on a nonbinding measure today to repudiate the MoveOn ad that ran in The New York Times calling General Petraeus "General Betray Us." By Republicans calling for this vote, it forces Democrats to disavow it.
This "sense of the senate" measure "strongly condemns any effort to attack the honor and integrity of General Petraeus and all the member of the United States Armed Forces; and to specifically repudiate the unwarranted personal attack on General Petraeus by the liberal activist group Moveon.org." Republicans have been attacking Democrats about this ad since it appeared in the paper, trying to tie them to the liberal group. Some Democrats (including
John Kerry and
Jack Reed) have publicly distanced themselves from the ad, saying it was over the top.
GOP Sen. John Cornyn introduced this measure last week, but the vote on it comes on the same day that President Bush called MoveOn's Petraeus ad "disgusting."
“What’s disgusting is that the President has more interest in political attacks than developing an exit strategy to get our troops out of Iraq and end this awful war," MoveOn executive director Eli Pariser responded in a statement.
From NBC's Mark Murray
Here is the take from
CBN's David Brody: "So for those scoring at home, let's keep track shall we? Dr. Dobson says no to
Thompson, no to
Giuliani, no to
McCain. Who does that leave? Oh, wait… who's raising their hand and jumping up and down in the back of the room? Hey, that's
Mitt Romney! He says 'what about me?' It may be very hard for Dr. Dobson to come out and support Romney because many of his devoted listeners have a problem with Mormonism... Now, as for
Huckabee, that's a possibility but can he win and is he only thought of as VP material?"
More from Brody: "While Dobson is getting the headlines this morning, the more interesting issue is just who will religious conservatives vote for in 2008? There is no clear cut choice. The top four all have issues. I wouldn't be surprised for voting in this block to splinter so much to where you won't have any one candidate getting the bulk of the vote. If that becomes the case, Rudy Giuliani is sitting pretty."
From WNBC's Jonathan Dienst and NBC's Mark Murray
Federal prosecutors in New York are expected to announce criminal charges against Democratic fundraiser
Norman Hsu later today, sources tell
WNBC.com. Hsu is expected to be charged with orchestrating a $60 million "Ponzi Scheme" and engaging in widespread campaign finance violations. Hsu has been a key Democratic Party fundraiser in recent years donating large amounts including to the campaign of
Hillary Clinton.
There is other Hsu news today... The Los Angeles Times reports that Hsu "waived extradition in a Colorado courthouse and was expected to be returned to California as early as" today.
And the Washington Post writes, "Last night, a group of New York investors who entrusted Hsu with more than $40 million, believing they were financing a clothing venture, filed a lawsuit alleging that he cheated them out of their money."
From NBC's Kelly O'Donnell
President Bush and outgoing Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns may have opened themselves up to criticism for using the Rose Garden today to -- in effect -- launch a Senate campaign.
The president explained that Johanns came to see him a few days ago to seek his advice on running for office from his home state of Nebraska, where Johanns had previously served as governor. The president warmly endorsed Johanns for the Senate seat being vacated by frequent Bush critic,
Chuck Hagel (R). The president added the caveat, "if its Nebraska's choice." Did the president jump ahead of a Republican primary process to promote a Senate race party nominee?
Also, Johanns was able to use the president's podium to give his farewell remarks, which notably included effusive praise for his home state -- that one might see as a Senate race message more than an outgoing cabinet member's typical remarks.
From MSNBC.com's Tom Curry
For a Republican up for re-election in 2008, Wednesday’s vote on the Leahy-Specter amendment -- habeas corpus for Guantanamo detainees -- wasn’t an easy one. Six GOP senators (including two up for re-election, Sununu of N.H. and Smith of Oregon), ended up voting to end debate and move the amendment forward.
We saw Sen. Lindsey Graham, R- S.C., on the floor during the roll call vote in animated discussion with three GOP senators who sometimes part company with the Bush administration: Sens. Susan Collins & Olympia Snowe of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska. All three voted “no” on the procedural vote.
CONTINUED >>
