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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Memorex-Blogging Tonight's Debate

Posted: Thursday, September 06, 2007 12:09 AM by Chuck Todd

From NBC’s Chuck Todd
Since I didn’t get to live-blog like my colleagues Mark and Domenico, I did keep notes as if I were live-blogging, so here are my running debate thoughts:

The potshots at Fred were something else. McCain’s ”bedtime” remark was bitter. Romney seemed to soften his attack on him a bit by being a little more good-natured about welcoming him.  Meanwhile, Giuliani’s smart remark about “Law and Order” was tough too. Overall, interesting tactic because all the potshots do serve Thompson well in this one respect: it entrenches him as one of the frontrunners. Just acknowledging his presence as the opening question helped Thompson become an immediate debate winner.

-- The first REAL question was about immigration and the moderators attempted to get Giuliani and Romney into a tiff. Romney cooperated and took a direct shot at Giuliani. Giuliani, however, decided NOT to engage Romney by name. He defended himself but didn’t necessarily acknowledge Romney. That had to be a bit frustrating to the Romney folks.

-- Huckabee’s FEDEX analogy on tracking immigrants was effective. The guy is good at simplifying a problem and talking, well, like a normal person.

-- During the wide shot, the dark suits of the entire field and the ultra white faces are an interesting contrast with the Democratic field. It’s not a new thought but it is striking to those of us who watch these debates so closely.

-- Tancredo’s Buchanan impersonation is getting better but it’s still just that, an imitation.

-- Romney is trying just a bit too hard to draw out Giuliani...

-- Is anyone else surprised that Brownback decided to stay in this race after the Ames Straw Poll? His role in this primary seems more diminished.

-- Romney’s abortion answer was closer to being pro-choice than he answered before. His campaign will flip out at that thought, but the fact that he singled out showing compassion for the mother in this potential abortion situation is telling.

-- Rudy deftly handled the gun question by turning it into a crime answer.

-- Ron Paul is the most fascinating candidate to watch at these debates for this one reason: you don’t have an idea of where he’ll come down on an issue. The airline answer and arming folks at airports was, um, unique.

-- McCain was methodical tonight; at points REALLY on his game and very funny; at other times he was almost OVERLY serious.

-- Giuliani is continuing to play for that McCain endorsement...

-- Why is Romney saying “if the surge is working”; it’s interesting that he’s leaving himself A LOT OF wiggle room on whether the surge is working. It left him wide open for that McCain attack.

-- Whoa, did Huckabee just invoke the Colin Powell “Pottery Barn” if you break it, you fix it, line? Also, while defending the need for the surge, it does sound like Huckabee did acknowledge that he thinks going into Iraq was a “mistake.”  BTW, what Ron Paul did for Giuliani in one of the first debates, he’s doing for Huckabee this debate.  

-- Did anyone else wonder when Ron Paul was going to simply say, “HEY KIDS, GET OFF MY LAWN!”

-- Hunter seems to enjoy of playing the role of his party’s Irving Berlin... He’s Mr. Patriot, always ready with a compliment that can get the audience to applaud. But his role in the primary seems less certain now than before. Just what wing of the party isn’t being represented that needs Hunter in the race?

-- For all the sucking up that the Romney campaign does for Fox, you’d think the network’s debate organizers would be a little nicer with their questions. Not so tonight. He seemed to get the brunt of the most negative-worded questions, be it from the moderators or the diner folks. It put Romney on the defensive for most of the night and guaranteed he was going to be one of tonight’s losers.

-- Just one comment on the production; Overall, the moderators did a solid job; no editorial gripes from here (though the diner break seemed over-produced); That said, my only production comment has to do with the various Dallas Cowboy “stars” that were behind the candidates via the backdrops. I know Fox is fired up about their NFC contract (game 1 on Sunday) but as someone who can’t stand the Cowboys, I wish I wasn’t seeing that star staring at me behind every candidate.

-- Giuliani was strong on why he didn’t sign the no-tax pledge. McCain struggled with the question (he was the other candidate on stage who didn’t sign the pledge; the other six did). As for Giuliani, he answered in a very presidential way.

-- Giuliani’s answer on the personal life issues wasn’t great. He’s answered it better. Overall, his attempt to waive off the issue is smart politics but I’ve heard him answer the question better. That said, it wasn’t horrible.

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Comments

If you do not know where Ron Paul is going to come down on an issue it means 2 things.  You have not followed or looked at the congressmans 20 year voting record (it has remained consistant the entire time!) nor are you familiar with the constitution (Dr Pauls guidebook on what the federal government should do)

Ron Paul is the only who is telling the truth, and I, a college student, a voter, a real voter I am voting for Dr Paul
"Ron Paul is the most fascinating candidate to watch at these debates for this one reason: you don’t have an idea of where he’ll come down on an issue."

You've got to be kidding.  Ron Paul is the only one that's been consistent his entire career.  Anyone who knows that Ron Paul's views are bound by the Constitution can easily extrapolate his views and responses before he even speaks.

"The airline answer and arming folks at airports was, um, unique."

It was unique, perhaps, because he's the only one on the stage saying it.  And it's certainly a valid point.  Airlines should have the right to protect their own property (their planes) and their passengers.  If airline personnel had been armed, do you really think people would be able to hijack airplanes with box cutters?

"BTW, what Ron Paul did for Giuliani in one of the first debates, he’s doing for Huckabee this debate."

I think you've got that backwards.  Giuliani's exchange with Paul gave him a huge boost in recognition in the second debate, and his exchange with Huckabee will likely as equally beneficial for him.
Are you really political analysts? If so, you did a poor job stating Ron Paul's positions.

You think it is "unique" that airlines should have the authority to equip pilots with handguns to protect themselves, the passengers, and the aircraft? You really think that 9/11 would have been as successful if they were able to defend themselves?

And you have it backwards, Guiliani and Huckabee has boosted Ron Paul's vote. Pre-Rudy he wasn't as known, afterwards he had so much publicity and so much more support.

Please do a better job doing your job.
Hey Knucklehead, Ron Paul didn't say arm the passengers, get your facts strait.  He said if the federal bureacracy wasn't involved and the airlines let say the pilots carry arms or tazers or whatever is what he was getting at, don't spin facts because you only lose credibility as a journalist.
Ron Paul would also say to not go away from our constitution and stay true to our founding fathers. Is that too much to ask? maybe for you. peace
I just read your column.  Can you please be careful what you say. Ron Paul did NOT say to arm airline passengers.  As a matter of fact, if you go back and look at the debate you will see the first thing he tell the moderator is that is NOT what he said. He said that the airlines should have allowed the pilots to be armed.  Get it right or don't say it at all.

What a joke?  Yes, we are in America and you and everyone else is allowed your opinion but your so-called analysis of Ron Paul and the others is so biased you have no credibility.  I can't believe anyone pays you to be a so-called analyst.  How can you be considered an analyst when you can't think about any issue or political rhetoric from outside your little box.
How about giving equal time to Ron Paul?  You's think there was only 4 canidates running.  So unfair!!!
Ron Paul stood up for the Constitution in this debate, he is the real conservative.
Are they afraid to give Ron Paul questions in fear that he might gain more support?  I think so!!!
Your Bias against Ron Paul is just as obvious as Fox News. The comments about arming people on airlines is incorrect. They were misquoting him. He believes that pilots should be able to carry and that airlines should not have to be forced to do everything the federal government says. They are private companies after all. Plus the comment by Huckabee about keeping our honor was awful. Ron Paul was right when he said that you have to fix the problem by getting out of Iraq. Not continue to screw up and kill more troops. So if we leave then everything the troops have done is dishonorable? I served in the United States Air Force from 2000-2004 and was deployed to the Middle East on Valentines Day in 2003. The war is a mistake. Have you served over there sir? The attacks by Fox on Ron Paul are sickening and so are yours.
Chuck, lets see, if I can have an armed high school drop out working for a security firm driving around in a golf cart with a gun at our local mall, I think our airline pilots (most of which are ex-military) can handle a gun in the cockpit.  Please read and get your facts straight before you write something that is not true.
You can very reliably predict where Ron Paul will come down on an issue - understand the rule of law, what the Constitution has to say about our civil liberties and limits of the federal government, and then actually think about how those apply to the issues.  The fact that Ron Paul makes decisions based on definable principles and not on popular opinion makes him the most sound and solid candidate the GOP has to offer.
Did we see the same debate?
McCain is clearly back.
Giuliani thinks he is going to win, but with that smirk he is going to get a rude surprise. We in the rest of the country are tired of hearing about New York.
Huckabee is looking better every day.
Ron Paul said that the pilots/airline should be armed on the planes NOT the passengers. Geez!  If you are going to slam someone as Fox was CLEARLY doing, 3 questions in total for Paul in the entire debate, marching orders from Al Qaida, trashing Ben Franklins rhetorical question about trading safety/security for freedom.  I do think you are having trouble with a consistent politician. If you want to know where Ron Paul will come down on any issue, then do two things:
1. Read his web site and see 20 years of videos on youtube, all consistent.
2. Finally, read the constitution as you were taught to read in first grade, and taught to interpret in 7th grade, it really is NOT rocket science.

The Ron Paul get off my lawn comment is pretty good since that is what the Iraqi's are saying to us!

I would think it would be clear by now, every time the 60% of the shrinking/shrunken GOP attacks Ron Paul on Iraq, then the other 40% think even more highly of him and coalesce around him. Please keep on attacking, but the lies are getting a little bizarre and blatant.  And I predict we will have a REAL convention with multiple ballots for the first time in 50 years.

By the way Fox had people phone in text messages to vote in a poll for the winner of the debate tonight. I am sure that they only allowed one vote per cell phone. Guess who one.
Yep for the umpteenth time: Ron Paul at 30+%, twice that of the next person, with the rest all closely grouped nearby and only a couple at less than 5%.

It is shaping up to be one of the better races for President in my life time, and I am over 50.  Real issues are being discussed, with real deep seated and important philosophies being actually debated. I never thought I would get a chance to see it!

Stay tuned for 40,000+ ACTIVE meet up members about to kick into gear nation wide, ALL independent of the Paul campaign. All fired up.  It will just keep getting better.
Wow, the writer of this blog needs to seriously avail himself of the facts aboout Ron Paul. Look at him trying to be cool, writing like he "knows" something about anything. Be a journalist!. Stop being a shill for your corporate bag men. If you think that was a debate you need to go back to school. Ron wiped the floor again with Iraq and th eaudience "loved" him.

What debate were you watching? And are you on meds?
Another victory for Ron Paul. When I saw the text message poll Ron Paul was clearly winning by a large margin with 35% of the vote. I am looking forward to the debates next year when he will be debating a Democratic candidate and receive more airtime.
The potshots on Fred were cheap.

Discuss Fred Thompson on the BEST Fred Thompson Forum on the Net.

http://fredthompsonforum.com/
Faux News = CFR

Romney, McCain,Giuliani, Fred Thompson = CFR

Ron Paul = no CFR   Ron Paul rEVOLution!
I thought Ron Paul carried himself well, and really drove home the point. How longer are we gong to let our soldiers die until we can leave with honor? My sister is in the national guard, and I do not want her going over there so McCain, Huckabee, and the rest (though as well-intentioned as it might be) can get their honor. The terrorists are in Saudi Arabia, not Iraq. Sure its important for Iraq to have stability, but this will not happen until the Iraq government can stand on its own feet without leaning on the US (And perhaps not fail 11/18 goals).
"Whoa, did Huckabee just invoke the Colin Powell “Pottery Barn” if you break it, you fix it, line?"...
That's right if you break it you fix it, you don't keep breaking it. If the first method you use does not succeed you need to have another strategy.
Ron Paul doesn't flip-flop and he is not inconsistent. I don't see how you could not understand where he will stand on an issue. It's pretty simple, he stands for the Constitution.
Wes, learn to spell straight.  Are ALL the Ron Paul techo/blogging geeks?
I was at this debate, in the second row. the three clear front runners are clearly Huckabee, McCain, and Giuliani. the rest of those clowns are just that; clowns.
I supported the pilot's association fight (yes fight) to allow them to be armed again after September 11th, and before then pilots had been gradually disarmed.  Pilots used to be armed before 2001, and then for some reason there was a disarm the pilot movement.
If you can trust the pilot to fly a plane, you can trust him you a firearm.
"Ron Paul is the most fascinating candidate to watch at these debates for this one reason: you don’t have an idea of where he’ll come down on an issue."  

Maybe you don't, but some of us have read the Constitution.
Ron Paul DID win this.  The way he is written about is unbelievable.  He is very consistent with his views and has never wavered.  The media, you included, doesn't give him a fair shake. It is terrible how you wrote about him.  He is a wonderful man and really cares about the "people" of this country (even you).  He is passionate about helping the American people and restoring our nation to one we can be proud of.   Please review his voting record.
Wow, the Ron Paul internet geeks are out in force tonight
Wow, do you get paid to post this blather? "Did anyone else wonder when Ron Paul was going to simply say, “HEY KIDS, GET OFF MY LAWN!" That is all you got to try and take down Ron Paul? How very weak you are.
Mr. Todd,

My American friends told me to stay clear of corporate American Media if wanted a modicum of objective reporting.

Mr. Todd, I being a neophyte at American politics have a better understanding of Congressman Paul's position; that does not bode well for you, as it indicates that either you are dishonest or incompetent in your capacity as a Poltical Director.  
I'm reading this article and I'm really scratching my head as I read your "anaysis". As the commenters before me noted, you don't know where Ron Paul is going to come down on an issue? That's like saying you didn't know that Giuliani was going to mention that he improved things in NY! Ron Paul's support is growing each and every day because he is not a typical Pol, exactly because you know how he will answer a question! And that answer is with the truth - even if its painful to hear. Maybe that's what you can't understand, as you refuse to see how mad people are with politics as usual, and why once people hear Ron Paul, they get involved - and become passionate with their support. No other candidate comes even close to inspiring that level of passion. No other candidate would ever inspire words like I head today from my wife (who just turned 50 recently) "We need to get some Ron Paul signs"

The mainstream media does nothing but endlessly mention the names and show the faces of Rudy, Mitt, and now Fred, and yet they don't inspire that passion. Maybe you need to ask why. And then you can ask yourself, what if we gave just a fair amount of coverage to Ron Paul, wouldn't it be interesting to see if the polls would show him with better numbers then?
Your comments are quite entertaining.

You're an analyst? Did Comedy Central hire you, or what?

I, like the majority of voting Americans, will be voting for Ron Paul... whether you or your colleagues can accept that.
Huckabee seems to be a likable guy, but there are a couple things that bother me.  He said that to win the war we need to fix Iraq, yet to a group in Iowa he said it was really a war against Islam.  That doesn't match.  Also, his idea of using FEDEX tracking on people can be applied to all people, an idea I don't like.  But, he seems like such a nice guy...
Ron Paul is actually VERY predictable...just read this: http://www.usconstitution.net/ and you can find out just exactly what he stands for
You are right when you say that Dr. Paul is the most fascinating.  It is refreshing to see someone intelligent who understands the issues and backs his talking points with facts not pandering.  There are two choices in this election: Dr. Paul or the CFR.  I vote for America and Dr. Paul.
Do you know why we have the Constitution? Do you understand free market economics? Do you like freedom? Answer those questions and you'll know where Ron Paul stands.  
Does this guy actually get paid for this kind of "analysis"?

Hey, MSNBC, how 'bout getting rid of this guy and hiring someone who pays attention to what's going on before running his mouth?
huckabee let me down!! I would do ANYTHING to save my fellow americans... honor is not in the equation!

Ron Paul 08
I am appauled at this analysis because it is so simple to see what Ron Paul stands for if you listen to him.   Political analists are repetedly making fools out of themselves all because they aren't used to the solidity of Ron Paul's message.

Stating "you don’t have an idea of where he’ll come down on an issue" ammounts to feining political ignorance.  To such a degree it is appauling.

If your going to make such statements please understand that you are eating away at that precious trust which we the people have given to you.
Ron Paul has pointed out that this war should have been declared by congress, which is the only lawful way to go to war, authorized by the constitution. Now, there were other candidates who finally began using Paul's language about their oath to uphold the constitution, witch Paul has reminded us all of repeatedly. Why didn't Chris Wallace bring that up or question the other candidates    about that fact rather than erroneously trying to accuse Paul of taking our marching orders from Al-Qaida? Paul responded perfectly, "NO" he said " We should take our marching orders from the costituion"! Did we declare it constitutionally? Please, other candidates, answer this. Ron Paul is steering the debates. Huck,  we should stand together as one nation, remember 70% of the American people want a change. More troops gave to Ron Paul's campaign     than any other candidate. Next time lets declare the war the way we are supposed to and get a mandate from the people. Lets all stand together as Americans, no matter what your party, or which candidate you are, lets all stand for the
constitution.  
Ron Paul has pointed out that this war should have been declared by congress, which is the only lawful way to go to war, authorized by the constitution. Now, there were other candidates who finally began using Paul's language about their oath to uphold the constitution, witch Paul has reminded us all of repeatedly. Why didn't Chris Wallace bring that up or question the other candidates    about that fact rather than erroneously trying to accuse Paul of taking our marching orders from Al-Qaida? Paul responded perfectly, "NO" he said " We should take our marching orders from the costituion"! Did we declare it constitutionally? Please, other candidates, answer this. Ron Paul is steering the debates. Huck,  we should stand together as one nation, remember 70% of the American people want a change. More troops gave to Ron Paul's campaign     than any other candidate. Next time lets declare the war the way we are supposed to and get a mandate from the people. Lets all stand together as Americans, no matter what your party, or which candidate you are, lets all stand for the
constitution.  
Huckabee did more for Ron Paul than did the moderators.     Ron Paul makes the debates interesting BECAUSE HE ACTUALLY ANSWERS THE QUESTIONS!!
Since when does it make you a loser to have tough questions directed to you?  I think it made Romney look Presidential when he shot down each negative question.  He turned each question into a informative and constructive answer.  
"Did anyone else wonder when Ron Paul was going to simply say, “HEY KIDS, GET OFF MY LAWN!""

Is this Chuck's idea of journalism? Obviously he has no idea why Ron Paul is the political rock star. As the famous Bob Dylan said in his song For the times they are a-changin'.
In regards to your comment on Ron Paul:

"Ron Paul is the most fascinating candidate to watch at these debates for this one reason: you don’t have an idea of where he’ll come down on an issue."

With respect, if you don't know where he stands, it's because you haven't done any research at all. To me, that makes anything you say as a reporter/political analyst suspect.

He is the most consistent government figure I have EVER seen.  He has a 20 year record of voting which is impeccable.  He's been saying the same things for decades, as well-- He doesn't change his positions to suit the political climate. His track record shows that if he says he will vote in a specific way on a specific issue, he will.

Also, Huckabee helps Paul more than Paul helps Huckabee. Paul is the only anti-war republican.  Clashing with Paul only helps more people notice him. If the republican party cares about winning, then they should consider that a large majority of the country hates the war. Paul is the only one up there that can satisfy the general public's desire for the war to be over.
why didn't you include the vote results on the debate...and tell your listening public who WON?

Is it so hard to admit that RON PAUL WON by twice as much 35%  as the 2nd, 3rd and 4th place candidates who all came in at about 15%
... always the same.
They say the equivalent of:
"I disagree with Ron Paul on the [insert issue] because he is a great, big poopy-head."
--Or...--
"I disagree with Ron Paul on the [insert issue] because his supporters are great, big poopy-heads."

Would somebody please legitimately refute Ron Paul or his supporters on the issues or just be quiet?
Ron Paul by far stands apart from the pack.

Whereas the rest of the GOP candidate are entirely out of touch with the rest of America, Ron Paul stays true to the Principles founded in the Constitution which make this country great!

Go Ron GO!

www.RonPaul2008.com
Ron Paul didn't advocate arming people at airports.  He advocated government not violating the Constitution and denying Airlines their 2nd amendment to arm their pilots.
Get a clue.  Ron Paul wants airlines armed just like the rest of the world, including the middle east, does it.

I think this article was poorly written with a lazy voice.


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