Not hard to dismiss if you look at the internals of the polls...but that is something you guys rarely emphasis.  You just want to crown Hillary the choice.

BTW...when ever she is behind by 1-3 its reported as a virtual tie.  If she is ahead by 1-3 it a lead.  Now that is a TREND worth noting

Time magazine has a story this week on John Edwards, I haven't had a chance to read it yet but judging from the pictures, he seems to put on a better public face then Hillary does.

We are still way too early for the finalist to be picked for the race, that is why we have so many people to choose from.  I'd like to see the candidates records as Mayor and Senator and congressman be a little more looked at.  Hillary has nothing in her record, Obama is a little too green, and Edwards never really did anything as a United States Senator.  Seems the democrats are going more by name connection rather then their work.  My guys seem to have a little more meat in their portfolio's then the democrats.  Maybe people would understand the democrats more if they showed what they did to deserve being a candidate for president.  You see more with Mitt and Rudy then you do with Obama, Hillary and Edwards.

The funny thing is, The Democratic options are much smaller, as there really is only one choice. However, Republicans have many more suitable options and thus makes them more capable and a viable choice. Very simple math.

Domenico,

The problem with any Iowa poll is that the poll sample is not restricted to prior caucus attendees therefore it starts out flawed to begin with. No polling company has paid the Democratic party for the caucus list, they poll either registered Democrats, or registered Democrats who voted during a particular election (off year or Presidential year general election or primary election) Because very few registered Democrats attend a caucus (the largest turn out ever was 20%) statistically a random sample of registered Democrats will include at least 80% of non-caucus attending Democrats. The media apparently is going to continue to report on these polls as if they weren't fatally flawed at the outset, and presumably in January when once again the polls and the results don't match (as always happens with Iowa caucuses) the pundits will try to find an explanation for the shift, instead of accepting reality that there wasn't a shift, but rather flawed polling data.

I called 04 caucus attendee's last night and only 2 people (out of about 40 that were home) were either leaning or supporting Hillary. Three times that many volunteered they were looking at anyone but her, the bulk of 04 caucus attendee's I reached were completely undecided at this point. This is not a statistically significant sample for the state (it is for one specific precinct), but it is probably closer to reality than any outside polling companies poll of people who don't even attend caucuses.

I seem to remember two elections where the pollsters really got thrown under the bus........

1948, where Harry Truman was all but left for dead
Besides Mike Gravel, Harry was probably the most honest democrat that ever ran for office.  Comparing Truman and Hillary Clinton is like comparing Niemann-Markus to the 49 cent store.

2004, John Kerry and President Bush.  All the pollsters had Kerry has the winner.....
The American people knew otherwise......

I have attended a couple of Sen. Obama's campaign rallies and the crowds are huge.
I see a big surprise for the media and Hillary when the votes are tallied !!!!

Gossip Girl Jerry!

Don't you mean the Ohio Secretary of State knew otherwise!!!!

Oh, yes, some gossip!

You gossip girl!  Love that Jerry gossip!!

20 point leads are what they are, and no amount of carping and wailing will change them. By Thanksgiving, it'll be all Hillary and Fred.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/charts/2008_election_primaries/democratic_primaries_chart.html

They are what they are...

I am an African American Christian, and tend to vote conservatively, and I'll have to tell you, Guliani is in real trouble.   His stance on abortion and gay marriage make him shaky at best with folks like me.  But his biggest issue is that he is repeating John Kerry's mistake. Kerry ran against W instead of FOR anything....  Rudy is running against Hillary rather than FOR anything...

No one seems to talk about cell phones and how they are effecting these polls. Pollsters do not contact people today who use their cell phones as their primary phone. I think this applies to young voters who I believe will make a difference in the next election.

Sorry people..... Iowa has gone RED and will prob NEVER go BLUE again. U have Des Moines which is 4 times as populated as Cedar Rapids and D.M. is mostly democratic and C.R. is almost all republican. But when U add in the uninformed rural folk that all they know is their tractors and crops...... It gets VERY Red......... And too many elderly folks will NEVER change their voting habits and train their offspring to do the same...... Sad but very true.
           Signed,
            Discusted in Cedar Rapids !!!!

you forgot about Ohio------fixed machines and thrown out votes---sure Bush won ---just like 2000

Dear Mike in Lee, NH - the way most of America sees it is that the Dems have the BEST field, the GOP candidates are more of the same.......I doubt that many people are interested in continuing the past 7 years for a minute longer than January 20, 2009.....and that ISN'T fuzzy math........

Hillary has grown on me! I like most of the field and love how they trounce any Republican they are up against!! I am voting for Hillary because Bill will once again lead us to GLORY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

the only way the repubs will win if they have a massive cheating campaign, which is quite possible.For the repubs, its always all about winning....At any cost.

a. Has the right experience to be president?
Sep. Aug.
7-9 6-8
2007 2007
Clinton 60% 59%
Edwards 15% 11%
Obama 9% 9%
Richardson 5% 6%
Biden 3% 5%
Gravel 1% *
Kucinich 1% *
Dodd * 1%
No opinion 6% 9%
b. Is most likely to bring needed change to the U.S.?
Sep. Aug.
7-9 6-8
2007 2007
Clinton 42% 40%
Obama 30% 27%
Edwards 10% 15%
Kucinich 3% 2%
Richardson 3% 4%
Biden 2% 2%
Dodd 1% *
Gravel 1% 1%
No opinion 7% 9%

The, "internals", on the CNN poll, consistent with others that have been taken, show why Clinton is the only realistic choice to beat the Republicans. 9% of the respondents say that Barack and 11% say that Edwards, have the right experience to be President.
What could the two of them do at this point to change that view?

p.s. Jerry, the Kerry polls were right.  If it wasn't for the widespread vote caging tactics of your beloved grand 'ol sham...er...party, then the vote would have matched.

I wonder about these polls also.   I don't think they are accurate.  But the Mainstream Media is trying to call the election for the electorate,  which has a tendency to make those voters that are weak in their assessement of a candidate vote for a person in these flawed polls because the Media wants to crown a particular person king/queen.   I say ignore them.

Hillary is the best person for the job, and peole just need to start accepting it.

@sara

Actually Pollster.com does an analysis of the polls they note that polls that only focus on previous Iowa caucus goers show a 2-5 point Edwards lead but polls that focus on likely voters (like ARM) show a 2-5 point Hillary lead.

So basically Iowa is a tossup between Hillary and Edwards at this point (although one cannot argue the fact that Hillary is trendig up).

No, Al Gore is the right person for the job.  He just isn't running for some insane reason.

Everyone I talk to, republican and democrat, agrees: if Al Gore were running, they would vote for him.

Of course I don't know too many radical rightie Neo-Cons, but they'd never vote for anyone but another radical rightie Neo-Con anyway.

jerry from corpus - to say the american people "knew" and this is why we ended up with another 4 years of bad leadership is to say that the american electorate has a keene sense of the issues and the characteristics of the people it elects - Bush was the biggest mistake ever made - the supposedly liberial media told us all that he was shrewd and surrounded by great people - how much of you money and your fellow countymen's lives does he have to waste before you see the truth - if he can't speak english and sounds like an idiot than trust your inner voice don't let the media tell you something that you know can't be true

Hillary is not the leader America wants and has all of the wrong type of experience.  Obama has the right kind of experience and his huge turnouts will turn into votes.  I love to watch the pundits predictions go up in flames.

Hey Jeremy Mr Christian, did you hear that Thompson isn't a church goer and hes beginning to take the lead on Guliani(who likes to wear dresses). How about voting democratic, the top three nominees all attend church and are christians.

Anybody who thinks Todd is biased towards Clinton is an idiot, as to the GOP field, Rudy hasn't been attacked yet for the many strong negatives in his record, as 3 of the 4 NY papers have pointed out- he sure won't be running a family values campaign. The GOP is actually very weak- Thompson is all fluff and won't last, it will be between Romney and Rudy. Rudy already ran from one campaign against Hillary, Romney is a joke on almost every key issue.  

I see the polls on various sites and see the news. The reality is that the American people are seeing that John McCain is ahead of his time and they are finally catching up. Right on the surge, right on immigration reform, right on cutting out pork barrel spending and right on campaign finance reform.

Vote McCain... a proactive politician, veteran and honorable President

My high school history teacher had a very wise comment about politics in 1968.  He said the Republican party is only concerned about what goes on in the rest of the world while the Democratic party is concerned about the welfare and progress of the people of our country. Many years of observation have shown me that this wonderful teacher was right on.  I think Hillary Clinton is a real Democrat.  Go Hillary!!!

Is this the best America has to offer?  I know it's early but come on now - For me Biden is the best choice if you're going for substance.  But obviously America is stuck in a Second Grade Mentality - Whose the prettiest, better hair, looks like Reagan, White enough- I think this is the most important Election in American History and according to the Polls it's the same old field of Stuffed Shirts. Remember in 100 years it will be American History - Not Democrat or Republican History

I have been saying for months now that Hillary would be our next Prez. The media hype about Obama had to at least stop playing the same tune about him at some point, and once the everyday folks got a chance to look him over a bit, find him lacking.

I see bb, our resident feminist, is up to her attacks again. It's interesting that the "pro gay" and oh so liberal crowd, composed of the bb's, uses homosexuality in a degrogatory manner in attacking her opponents. And, "oh yes", bb is a blind fanatical Clinton supporter. SO much for morality!

Hillary CLinton is nothing more than a greedy money grubbing opportunist and the prototypical crooked politician. "Bubba" was no great shake as a President and it took a couple of genuine jerks like the Bush-Cheney team to make him look good. I've had enough with the Clinton-Bush team and their insane globalization schemes, their too cozy relations wioth corporations, and the silly fools that support them. We need someone who actually cares about this country and working class people like John Edwards, Dennis Kucinich, John McCain, or Fred Thompson. I want a chance to vote for at least one of these people and not have the morons from the major parties sytikc us with some swine like Romney, Guliani, Clinton, Dodd or Richardson. The choice between these two groups isn't "the lesser of two evils", it is of national and personal suicide vs. suviving (McCain) or thriving (Edwards, Obama, Thompson, Kucinich).

This will be another one of those elections where you hold your nose and vote, preferrably for the one that can do the least harm.  We will never have a really capable person run because of the microscope the candidate and his family has to go through. If JFK was alive and running today he would never make it due to his womanizing and political tricks. Until we quit worrying about whos sleeping around and who smoked pot 40 yrs ago we will never get a qualified individual.  

Who in the candidate field talks straight about the war, has executive experience, negotiates skillfully, respects minorities & civil rights, understands energy & climate issues,and still wants this crazy job?  There's only one.  Take another look at Richardson.

Mike you must be delusional! McCain looks so befuddled all the time. AND, he made the fateful, horribly wrong decision to crawl up Bushs butt...and we know what happens to folks that do THAT!!S----!!

I read as much as I can about and from the main stream
we have been living in a two party dictatorship for a long time.A vote for Hillary/Obama or Guliani/Thompson is a vote for a management stile not a change. For a Change Vote RON PAUL,Check him on the issues

To Scotty Felton  & Kristoph

Scotty you don't know what you are talking about. Des Moines is larger than Cedar Rapids, but it is not even close to being twice the size, let alone 4 times (go check out the US census figures). And CR is not a Republican city. Only Johnson County (home to Iowa City, and University of Iowa) has a higher ratio of Democratic registration per capita than Linn County, where CR is located. There is not one GOP on the county board of supervisors. All of the State Senators from Cedar Rapids are currently Democrats, and most of the state representatives are Democrats, there is one GOP state representative whose district includes a portion of CR. Democrats picked up a house seat and a senate seat in CR in 06, not exactly trending GOP.  

Your "facts" about Iowa having gone red, are equally wrong and at best uninformed.  I wonder if you really are from Iowa let alone CR, given your bizarre statements. It is true that Iowa went for Bush, by a very narrow margin in 04, and unfortunately if Clinton is the nominee it will do so again in 08. (Women haven't done well in federal races in Iowa, or for Governor, a women for President would have a hard time, even without Hillary's baggage) But prior to 04 Iowa went with the Democratic Presidential  candidate in 2000, 1996, & 1992.( I don't recall 88 results) Also in 1998 Gov. Vilsack was elected Governor, he was the first Democratic Governor in Iowa since 1968. In 2006 Chet Culver (Dem.) beat Jim Nussle (congressman from 1990-2006, and now Bush's budget director)by over 120,000 votes. Most pundits felt Nussle would win, because of his 16 years in congress versus Chet's 2 terms as Secretary of State, and because Nussle is a much better public speaker. Prior to the 2006 election Iowa had one semi-Democratic congressman, and 4 GOP. It had been more than a decade since there had been two Democratic congressman, however we now have 2 strong democratic congressman, one elected to an open seat (the seat Nussle vacated to run for Governor) and the congressman who represents CR, IC and southern Iowa who defeated Jim Leach (a moderate GOP-voted against the war, pro-choice etc.)who had been in Congress since 1976, as well as the semi-Democratic congressman (ie far too conservative) from Des Moines retained his seat. Iowa not only has a Democratic Governor, a democratic majority in the house and senate (for the first time in 40+ years)almost all state wide office holders are Democratic (Sec. of Agriculture is GOP) and 3 out of 5 congressman are Democrat. This seems to me the opposite of a GOP trend.

Kristoph:  Polls will often say they are of caucus goers, or likely caucus goers, the problem is they are relying on the person saying they are regular caucus goers. They do not have the caucus lists, you can check with the State Democratic party, only candidates have paid the party the 100,000 charged for the lists) If I were to use the VAN list (the list of 04 caucus goers) as verification of caucus attendance, and called 100 registered Democrats who did not attend in 04 and said I was with gallop, ABC etc., and asked if they were regular caucus attendee's, or specifically asked if they attended in 04, the overwhelming number would say yes, even though that would be false. People do not want to appear to shirk their civic duty, which is why relying on the person who is being polled to verify caucus attendance would be statistically unreliable, if you were to submit such a poll in an undergraduate statistics class you'd fail the class.

I do not dispute that the top three are Edwards and Obama and Clinton. I am confidant Edwards is ahead in people who are committed and won't change their mind, and his lead is larger than a couple points (but less than his 31.9% in the 04 caucus), I have no clue as to whether it is Hillary or Obama who is second in committed voters who won't change candidates prior to the caucus. What is clear is that the over whelming number of past caucus attendee's (the best indicator of future caucus attendance)are undecided. While Obama still can pick up more undecided, as people are still getting to know him, it is unlikely that Hillary will add a significant of additional supporters. Unlike Obama, and other candidates she is not an unknown. If people were inclined to support her they would be supporting her by now. There is a very large segment of caucus goers who are looking for anyone but Hillary. Even among people who personally like her (which is a large number of people)there are a lot of people concerned she will cost the Democrats the WH. You  can argue whether that view is right or wrong, but it is deeply held by many. And it is that sentiment that will make it very difficult for Hillary to do well in Iowa, no matter how many times she brings Bill, who most Iowa Democrats love.      

McCain was my first choice until he went and started kissing Jerry Falwell' behind and then became Geroge Bush's personal hand puppet. I believe in fiscal conservatism but the Republicans keep dragging in all this religious garbage which is a total turnoff. What America needs is a candidate from the center that represents all Americans. So far it looks like Hillary is the only one even close.

As big of a Ron Paul fan as I am, I think it's becoming clear that he has an extremely slim chance of winning this primary.  This won't deter me from voting for him regardless, but he needs to make up major ground in these final months....hopefully i'm wrong..

LOL at people who cant let it got that Kerry lost fair and square. How come if a Republican wins its because he cheated? Why cant you Liberals just accept the fact that a majority of Americans don't want your amnesty giving, baby killing, family destroying, isolationist dogma?

Hillary is Rupert Murdoch's girl!
Clinton aides working with Murdoch to kill net neutrality!
http://www.democraticmedia.org/jcblog/?p=101

Obama can't win a primary - much less the nomination.

Al Gore would probably be president if Clinton had kept his zipper zipped. It would be immoral to vote for a repeat.
Oh - and Kathleen Wiley's new book out soon.

Also if the top 3 democrats were true Christians then their faith would be more important than their politics to them and they wouldnt ignore what their faith says about top issues that they support. Kudos to Edwards though for saying he did not support gay marriage.

CNN's polls are now being conducted by the Clinton's friend - Vinod Gupta.
Hillary supporters are like Bushies - they want to win - even if they have to cheat.

remember to keep working!!!! the lazy, those here illegaly, and those that "they be entitled" are depending you the hard working american for their source of income,free housing, free medical care.

   

As an Independent, I am having difficulty making up my mind as to who I will vote for in the 2008 election.  The candidates who would take this nation, and our environment, in the right direction...who are forthright in their responses...are not being promoted.

Regarding the Republican candidates...voting for any one of them would be a repetition of the lack of intellect, honesty, and leadership that Bush has presented to this nation...and to the world at large.

As for the Democratic candidates...and the Republican candidates...we are hearing only the same old, same old, rhetoric...without any solid solutions.

The only candidates that present any authenticity are Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul...opposite ends of the spectrum...but authentic,nevertheless.

This nation needs a leader who will challenge the status quo, get our economy out of bankruptcy, who does not bow to lobbyists, and understands that our representatives are here to serve and protect the people of this nation.  Furthermore, we need a statesperson who understands and supports the Constitution of the United States, is open, in approach, to the ideas and initiatives of others...realizing that he or she is only human...and not infallible.  We need a statesperson who understands the needs of the minority groups and works toward integration of the the haves and have nots...who is analytical enough to examine the "formalized institutions" that need modification in perspective and in action, and has the diplomatic skills to unite us with other nations in the world.  We need a President who thinks things through, understands the implications of a particular policy or act, before implementing an initiative that could do irreparable harm to this nation, its people, and the environment.

We need a President who is courageous enough to expose the dishonesty, hypocrisy, and covert actions of our government and be honest with the Amercian people.  We need a President who places the needs of this nation before his or her own.

We need honesty...integrity...and vision.  Most of all, we need a nation where one can, once again, dare to dream and work toward one's accomplishments.  We need a Presdient who instills courage, by example, and not fear...and without ego and self agrandizement...

As an Independent, I am having difficulty making up my mind as to who I will vote for in the 2008 election.  The candidates who would take this nation, and our environment, in the right direction...who are forthright in their responses...are not being promoted.

Regarding the Republican candidates...voting for any one of them would be a repetition of the lack of intellect, honesty, and leadership that Bush has presented to this nation...and to the world at large.

As for the Democratic candidates...and the Republican candidates...we are hearing only the same old, same old, rhetoric...without any solid solutions.

The only candidates that present any authenticity are Dennis Kucinich and Ron Paul...opposite ends of the spectrum...but authentic,nevertheless.

This nation needs a leader who will challenge the status quo, get our economy out of bankruptcy, who does not bow to lobbyists, and understands that our representatives are here to serve and protect the people of this nation.  Furthermore, we need a statesperson who understands and supports the Constitution of the United States, is open, in approach, to the ideas and initiatives of others...realizing that he or she is only human...and not infallible.  We need a statesperson who understands the needs of the minority groups and works toward integration of the the haves and have nots...who is analytical enough to examine the "formalized institutions" that need modification in perspective and in action, and has the diplomatic skills to unite us with other nations in the world.  We need a President who thinks things through, understands the implications of a particular policy or act, before implementing an initiative that could do irreparable harm to this nation, its people, and the environment.

We need a President who is courageous enough to expose the dishonesty, hypocrisy, and covert actions of our government and be honest with the Amercian people.  We need a President who places the needs of this nation before his or her own.

We need honesty...integrity...and vision.  Most of all, we need a nation where one can, once again, dare to dream and work toward one's accomplishments.  We need a Presdient who instills courage, by example, and not fear...and without ego and self agrandizement...

I think Romney is the most qualified.  He turns everything he does into a success.  It's all about leadership and that's all he's done in the past.  

It's such a shame that America elects a president by way of states like Iowa / New Hampshire, which are not representative of American diversity.  New York, Florida & California anyone??

I have attended a couple of Sen. Obama's campaign rallies and the crowds are huge.
I see a big surprise for the media and Hillary when the votes are tallied !!!!


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And Biden wins.

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