First thoughts

Posted: Wednesday, September 12, 2007 9:19 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Obama On Iraq: A day after getting a handful of minutes to speak, er, question Petraeus -- and after talking with NBC’s David Gregory on TODAY earlier this morning -- Obama gives a speech today on Iraq from Iowa. In it, per the campaign, he will outline his plan for ending the war in Iraq, which includes pulling out combat troops at a pace of one or two brigades every month, to be completed by the end of next year. Yesterday, while talking at, er, grilling Petraeus and Crocker, Obama said: "I have to say, and this hasn't been commented on, I think that we should not have had this discussion on 9/11 or 9/10 or 9/12. Because I think it perpetuates this notion that somehow the original decision to go into Iraq was directly related to the attacks on 9/11." Yet as a rival campaign points out to First Read, if that’s true, why is he giving an Iraq speech today on September 12? Still, this is Obama's next best chance to emphasize what the campaign believes is a real difference between him and Clinton on the top issue in the primary.

*** The Hsu Keeps Dropping: When the Clinton campaign announced on Monday night that it was returning the $850,000 Norman Hsu had raised, it appeared that the story was over, right? Well, not quite… The New York Times reports today that the Clinton campaign, per an adviser, will try to get most of the money back -- if it came from the donors’ own bank accounts, and not from Hsu or another source. So is it really returning the money when the campaign seeks to get it back? Also, the Politico notes that bulldog Rep. Henry Waxman “has promised to ask the National Archives for documents relating to President Bill Clinton’s Office of Political Affairs… [That] could mean fresh scrutiny and publicity for long-forgotten meetings and presentations during the Clinton administration” -- which could be another headache for the Clinton campaign.

*** A Lot Of Finger-Pointing Going On: One can only imagine the finger-pointing going on inside the Clinton fundraising machine. It's never been a happy team of folks as there was some infighting over control and strategy early on. Nothing has been easy on the Clinton fundraising front. While they've raised impressive money, they've only found themselves "keeping up" with Obama, which of course is not how it was supposed to be. And now with the Hsu fiasco, don't be surprised if some who felt as if they weren't being listened to will push to get their way. With just 18 days to go before the end of the third fundraising quarter, this controversy couldn't be coming at a worse time.

*** One New Yorker Up, The Other One Flat-lining: Despite the Hsu story, Clinton keeps soaring in the polls. A brand-new Washington Post/ABC poll has her maintaining her double-digit national lead over Obama, while Bloomberg/LA Times shows her leading in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. On the GOP side, meanwhile, the Post/ABC poll finds Giuliani out in front -- but losing ground to Thompson. Moreover, the Bloomberg/LA Times survey shows him trailing Romney in Iowa and New Hampshire, and Thompson in South Carolina (although he’s just a few points behind, within the margin of error in NH and SC). But Giuliani flat-lining in the national polls probably says more about Thompson. Despite Beltway insiders nitpicking every little detail about Thompson’s announcement tour (the staff departures, his different statements on Osama bin Laden, saying that he often doesn’t attend church), Thompson has gotten a nice bounce since officially jumping into the race. Of course, Thompson got a similar bounce in June, dragging Giuliani down a bit and then Giuliani floated back up. Will this bounce stick? And what does it mean for Romney, who may have more at risk with the rise of Thompson? Maybe that explains the phonyfred.com Web site?

*** Get Ready For Another Poll: Is Clinton the overwhelming national front-runner? Is Thompson truly catching up to Giuliani? How do Americans view the surge? And do voters view this VERY early presidential contest as a positive or a negative? For answers, watch NBC Nightly News beginning at 6:30 pm ET -- or click on to MSNBC.com at the same time -- for the results of the latest NBC/Wall Street Journal poll.

*** The Monster Mash: The eight Democratic presidential candidates participate today in the Yahoo!/Huffington Post/Slate Mashup, an online forum moderated by PBS’s Charlie Rose. There will be additional questions from online readers and viewers. But candidates will not interact

*** On The Trail: Elsewhere today, Dodd appears on Countdown with Keith Olbermann; Giuliani campaigns in Akron, OH; Huckabee raises money in Beverly Hills; McCain, in Iowa, continues on his “No Surrender” tour; Paul campaigns in Southern California; Richardson fundraises in Texas; and Romney is also in Texas, where he speaks to the Midland County Republican Women's Club and then raises money in Dallas and Houston. Also, Elizabeth Edwards appears on Rachel Ray.

Countdown to LA GOV election: 38 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 55 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 66 days
Countdown to Iowa: 124 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 129 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 146 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 419 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 496 days

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Comments

James, Los Angeles / I believe obama already returned hsu's money chief

MK,MO (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 2:00 PM)

Oh no the other woman hater Sierra is back. Jerry is her counterpart.OBAMA got contributions from Hsu as well!

bb (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 2:04 PM)

go Hillary, we love you and you will win!

girls at UNF (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 2:04 PM)

edwards did not take hsu's money

MK,MO (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 2:05 PM)

All of these attacks on here of Hillary Clinton is a direct result of the fear the repubs and "fake dems" have of her. Get use to it gang. She will be your next president.

Blue state baby (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 2:40 PM)

demagirl-

There is no reason to assume that the "rival" campaign is Biden's campaign, any more than Dodd (also on the committee) Clinton, or Edwards, or that a rival campaign even refers to a candidate, as a matter of fact if it was actually a candidate who personally spoke to Domenico, as opposed to someone working for a candidate, I'm sure "candidate" and not campaign would have been used.

I have to wonder how many Senate hearings you have watched before, if you think a Senator reading the newspaper, at the tail end of a hearing, where many Senators are re-asking prior questions is something out of the ordinary, or a slight on one particular Senator. Was Senator Biden devoting 100% of his attention to every word the Senator's prior to Obama said, and then picked up the newspaper only when it was Obama's turn? No. Biden was not being rude to Sen. Obama. Sen. Obama had 7 minutes to ask questions, or to speak, or speak and ask questions. This is the same amount of time all the Senators, other than the committee chairs, had. Watch Obama again, and you will see that he had already used his full time before he even remarked that he didn't have much time to ask anything. To which Biden responded "That's true Senator" Is that really rude? As Chairmen Sen. Biden was within his right to cut Obama off, and tell him his time is up. But he didn't. Obama then used 50 seconds to ask the same question that Sununu had just asked. Apparently he wasn't listening to what his colleagues had been asking. Despite his time having long expired and despite the one question he asked after expiration of his time having already been asked, Sen. Biden didn't tell Crocker that he didn't need to responded to Obama's untimely and repetitious question, instead he asked Crocker to briefly summarize his earlier response.

What exactly was so enligthtening about Obama's 7 plus minute speech anyway? Let's see he talked about how great the troops are, he talked about how he wished the hearing hadn't been on 9/11, 9/10 or 9/12, he talked about the fact the WH paints a picture inconsistent with the facts on the ground, and then he said that the President recently said we were kicking long pause A-S-S. Despite earlier Senators being able to quote the President and use the word "ass".

Look I like Obama, I've enjoyed meeting him (3 times to date, and I'll see him at Sen. Harkins steak fry this Sunday), but the idea that Obama had some fabulous performance yesterday, or that Sen. Biden was rude to him is a joke.

Molly, Iowa City (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 2:43 PM)

It's truly astounding to look at the difference in grey matter (brain tissue) between the Republican and Democratic candidates. The Democrats are all intelligent, articulate, thoughtful people, and the Republicans are all wingnut-bots, spouting the Bush Party Line, fighting about who's the roughest and toughest, and their voters are flocking around this lamebrain actor. Now you know how we got into this mess.

JJ in NJ (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 2:49 PM)

Sierra......the money isn't tainted if it came from the donors bank accounts and not from Hsu's. Hillary's people are trying to determine that, and they are willing to give back whatever came from Hsu himself.
The fact of the matter is, that no matter what First Read reported yesterday, or ANYDAY, there is absolutely NO evidence whatsoever that any candidate who received money from Hsu, including Hillary, knew of his past.
By contrast, The Romney Campaign has flat out stated they will NOT give back money from donors who's contributions were arranged by Alan Fabian.
.....and RH;
YOU are the one who saying that "if one does it, they all can do it." Not me.
My message is very clear; I strongly object to the media picking on Hillary for the Hsu thing, while allowing Romney and Giulliani to get a pass on the Fabian thing.
YOU seem to think that's fine.
YOU seem to think that it's okay to make inuendo without evidence, and accusations without facts against Hillary.
But, you dont want THE TRUTH told about Romney's and Giulliani's campaign financing sources.
Hsu was arrested because he didn't report to jail for something he did 15 years ago.
Fabian was arrested for (among other things) MONEY LAUNDERING and BANKRUPTCY FRAUD!
Get a clue RH!

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 2:52 PM)

Lordy, lordy,the great unwashed are still out there opining about politics and the character of the characters--although few of them have reached their conclusions with the help of any discoverable brain cells. I fear we can anticipate another loser in the White House courtesy of My Fellow Americans.

john mcclurg, marysville WA (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 2:53 PM)

Right on Gary

Jim, Santa Cruz (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 3:04 PM)

sierra has no credibility.
She lost it when she chose to post flippant, disrespectful, and smarmy commentary about 911 yesterday.
sierra is a very naive and immature person, and she should grow up.

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 3:10 PM)

".....I will not vote for (Hillary). If she wins the Democratic nomination, I hope that Fred Thompson or Mitt Romney wins the Republican nomination. At least then I'll have someone with a little bit of integrity to vote for.
Mike K, Denver (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 10:03 AM)

MIKE,
PLEASE BE ADVISED THAT MITT ROMNEY'S NATIONAL FUNDRAISING CO-CHAIRMAN, ALAN FABIAN, WAS INDICTED ON AUGUST 9TH FOR 23 COUNTS OF MAIL FRAUD, BANKRUPTCY FRAUD, MONEY LAUNDERING, PERJURY, AND OBSTRUCTION OF JUSTICE.
HILLARY CLINTON'S CAMPAIGN HAS ANNOUNCED THEY WILL GIVE BACK ALL THE MONEY THAT WAS RAISED BY AND WENT THROUGH HSU's BANK ACCOUNT.
BY CONTRAST, THE ROMNEY CAMPAIGN HAS STATED FLAT OUT THAT IT WHILE IT WILL RETURN ALAN FABIAN's PERSONAL CONTRIBUTION, IT WILL NOT RETURN ANY MONEY THAT CAME FROM DONORS FABIAN COURTED.
You're going to have to explain to me how that equates to..."someone with a little bit of integrity to vote for"...
Yer full of it Mike! You're just a republiCANT party hack, and a Clinton hater.

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 3:19 PM)

So, there was an email circulating within the Clinton campaign warning about Hsu, and they couldn't figure it out and "were surprised" about it.

I remember this story about a memo circulating around the Bush White House about how bin Ladin wanted to strike us on our own soil and they couldn't figure it out and "were surprised" by it.

This is too eerie and disturbing for me to give her my vote.

CitizenJ (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 3:36 PM)

Hillary plans to return the $850,000, but expects the same donors to take it with one hand and return them back to her using the other hand. This is because, she has already promised them favors once she is in the white house. I want somebody who is following this to release the names of the 260 chinese to whom she is giving the money.

Pooper Scooper (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 3:38 PM)

This just shows how scared the right wing is of Senator Clinton. She will whip any of the old farts the right wing has running for president. They will try to swiftboat her just like they did to Kerry. But the Senator is a lot smarter and she will fight back,unlike Kerry. Kerry did not stand up to the right wing and the rest is history.
The right wing keeps trying to bring back things that President Clinton did,but all of that is not related to the present. They will dig up as much dirt as they can,but it won't work. We,the voters,know what the hate mongers in the republican party are up too,and it will not work.
She will be nominated and she will win by a landslide. JulieAnnie,Thompson and McCain old farts that don't stand a chance. They have to many skeletons in their closets.

Enrique Hinojosa,Irving,Texas (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 3:45 PM)

James, Los Angeles You're so desperate to attack Clinton grasping at anything-no mention that Hsu donated to many democrats. Obama is keeping his contributions from Hsu.

Maybe now's the time to take a step back and ask ourselves just where did the Democrats get all the record setting contributions?

Just went over to the hillaryclinton.com site - Hsu is still listed as a "HillRaiser". There is always hope I guess that this Hsu fiasco is just a big misunderstanding. Just blame it on Rove and moveon.

Eric Hunter, LA-CA (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 3:59 PM)

I understand that when McCain made his last trip to Iraq,he paid $2500 to each shop owner so they could open their shops and make it look like things were going well in the area he was at. Is this the kind of president we want in America,I guess not? He is a manipulator just like Bush. Anyway,McCain has no chance of winning the nomination,one of the other old farts will beat him out,probably JulieAnnie or maybe Mormon,or the movie star,the one that is married to a woman 40 years younger then he is. I bet he can't keep up with her,in bed.

Enrique Hinojosa,Irving,Texas (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 4:01 PM)

WHAT A CROCK!
More lies and fuzzy stats to follow tomorrow night. The idiot in thief will have us so dizzy with spin, that is the reason we puke when he tries to read and speak at the same time.

H P Boston (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 4:09 PM)

".....Teacher !! Teacher !! They did it too !!
Is that the level the Clinton cult is reduced to ??
The Republicans are crooked, why can't we be crooked too ??
They're REPUBLICANS, Merle !!
They're supposed to be crooked !!
Hillary wants the nomination of the Democratic Party!....."

First off sierra, there is absolutely NO evidence to suggest that any candidate who took money from Hsu or from donors that Hsu recruited, including Hillary, knew anything about his past.
Secondly, you have missed the point here entirely.
The Fabian indictment was barely reported, in spite of the fact that he was involved with two (2) different candidates, Romney and Giulliani, as either a fundraiser or a donor.
On the other hand, the media....and I might add some very disengenuous people like yourself.....have POUNCED on the Hsu story even without any credible evidence of wrongdoing on Hillary's part.

"Sorry, Merle the media is really in Hillary's court ! ".....

Oh it is, sierra?...That's absolutely LAUGHABLE in light of what we've seen reported on this board alone, and the fact that First Read DID NOT cover the Fabian indictment with the same verve they have approached the Hsu situation.

"...You protest too much, Merle Stanley ..."

Excuse me, sierra?!
Want to see what protesting too much is? Take a good long, look at your own dietribal postings, and vitriolic rants about the Clintons!

In the end you are an Obama HACK, who employs the absolute worst grammer and spelling I have ever seen on a message board or "blog."
Furthermore you were childishly insensitive yesterday with the things you posted about 911. That tells me a lot about your intelligence level, and your maturity.
Aliken to the qualifications of the candidate you support for President, Barrack Obama, you have neither the mental capacity, nor the experience to fill the role to which you aspire on this board.
You need to stop being so "biased" against Hillary, since it's obvious that you don't know what you're talking about.
...and ya' know what else sierra?
You need to grow up.

J. Merle Stanley, Westchester, NY (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 4:29 PM)

james ,yea obamas keeping like all $4,000 . what a crook . oh maby he is keeping it because you cant possibly bundle $4,000 bucks that the clintons more than likly had hsu plant since she already new it was bad money and could give her an out if she was cought. just a thought .

ki houston (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 5:14 PM)

The Realist nyc -- Yeah, I feel exactly the same about Edwards and Obama.

Senator Clinton was under discussion at this particular moment.

And thanks for repeating my characterization -- every little bit of reinforcement helps!

Rick Lapin, Albuquerque, NM (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 6:11 PM)

[[ Yet as a rival campaign points out to First Read, if that’s true, why is he giving an Iraq speech today on September 12?]]

You guys in the media are doing everything you can to help the GOP win. Otherwise, you'd be asking: why did Giulliani use the Sept. 11 memorial ceremony in New York as a campaign photo op?

Houston (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 6:17 PM)

By the by, Realist -- being one of a crowd of offenders is not a very compelling defense.

Just sorta solidifies your position as one of the common run of riff-raff we are currently accepting as our leaders.

Simply put: I will not vote for X if I don't like what X does just because X says: "Well, Y does it too!"

And I cannot take anyone seriously who would ...

Rick Lapin, Albuquerque, NM (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 6:27 PM)

All the right wing nuts keep blaming the democrats for not doing enough to end the war. I want to ask all of you right winger,how in hell can they stop the war and Bush's veto pen,if they don't have a true majority in either chamber? The democrats need a total of 67 votes in the Senate to over-ride a veto,they don't have that. So how can they get anything done with a one vote majority. If they had the 67 votes required,this war would have been stopped months ago. In the House they have the same problem.
So for any body to blame the democrats for the mess in Iraq,is stupid just like Bush. Bush does not want to be known for the president that lost the war,so he is going to leave this mess for the next president. I pray to God that we elect a Democrat with big enough cojones so we can end this mess,once and for all. This war is Bush's war and now he wants to leave the mess for somebody else to fix.
I lot of people feel like Bush needs to be impeached for all the wrong he has done to our country. I feel the same way.

Enrique Hinojosa,Irving,Texas (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 6:55 PM)

Hillary is politics version of "Hsu"-less Joe Jackson...Looks like she's wearing the wrong Hsu-size!
...and BTW you Hillo-philes there's a huge difference between the $7K donated to Obama in '04 and the $850K donated to Hillary.

Real Democrat, CA (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 6:56 PM)

This Obama fella,is not what you people think he is. He does not have the experience needed to be Commander In Chief.WE have already been fooled onece by Bush,let's not go through that mess again.

Enrique Hinojosa,Irving,Texas (Sent Wednesday, September 12, 2007 6:58 PM)

For once Clinton may be right, the money fro hsu is hers donated from him and only him not from believers that donated when hsu plead to donate. Veterans unite, Clinton do not have experience in fighting for America, she rather give away. President Bush may never have that experience, but Osama Bin Ladin is afraid of President Bush. Golly, so many wanabees, even actors, keep on plugging Rudy for America, Senator from NY is not representing you she is for big money and her own interest. Remember "Stand by your man". Freedom cost more than money, but precious and may be dwindling today as President Bush leads on for all of us and with a lot of sacrafices. Thank God for him, courageous as he is and his family. God Bless America and President Bush & Family.

Jacob Kagak, Barrow Alaska (Sent Thursday, September 13, 2007 6:28 AM)

Thank you, but Glory be and God Bless. Or is that too moderate? Dare & double dare.

Jacob an Inupiaq from Barrow.

Jacob Kagak, Barrow Alaska (Sent Thursday, September 13, 2007 6:32 AM)

Enrique says: I want to ask all of you right winger,how in hell can they stop the war and Bush's veto pen,if they don't have a true majority in either chamber?

Simple. By not passing any bills that fund the war effort. Pelosi and Reid only have to not bring the bill to their floors for a vote.

Brad Childress, Houston TX (Sent Thursday, September 13, 2007 8:57 AM)

Brad Childress EXACTLY!!!!! Do not bring any bills to the floor for a vote! The House and Congress are not under Bushes thumb. Congress is a separate, coequal part of our government. Do your job Congress and save our country from the WORST president ever!

H P Boston (Sent Thursday, September 13, 2007 10:14 AM)

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