First thoughts: Rudy, get your gun
Posted: Friday, September 21, 2007 9:17 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
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Rudy, get your gun: We’ve said it before, and we’ll say it again: Giuliani’s speech today to the NRA -- and more importantly, how that speech is received -- is a big moment for the campaign. His record on guns is potentially more problematic with conservatives than his past statements on abortion or gay rights. Will the audience buy his argument that gun control should be left up to the states (which, by the way, is similar to what Howard Dean said on the issue in ’04)? Rudy isn’t the sole Republican presidential candidate who will be there. McCain, Thompson, Giuliani, Huckabee, and Gingrich (in that order) are addressing the NRA conference in DC today. Plus, Romney (“varmits"!), Richardson (a Democrat!), and Hunter will speak to the confab by videotape. In particular, Thompson has an opportunity to shine at the event, especially after getting dissed by James Dobson. Can he seize it?
*** Quick thoughts on last night’s forum: Did Clinton really refer to the "first Clinton Administration"? We rewound the TiVo and sure enough, she did. Talk about growing confidence... Meanwhile, the budding Biden vs. Richardson rivalry (is it some weird Secretary of State primary?) could be fun. Biden's clearly now aiming for the most gettable candidate for him in Iowa. Edwards once again showed his hesitancy in being overly aggressive to an Iowa audience. When given the chance to hit Clinton over lobbyist influence for her health care plan, he didn't take the bait (and instead praised her plan). But he tried more subtle digs. Chris Dodd was downright fiery. He was not quite as tough on Clinton at the forum as he was in an AP interview earlier in the afternoon, but he did attempt to create contrast with her and all of his rivals. The best part of this forum: With only five people on stage, one could tell the candidates LOVED it. Don't be surprised if Kucinich and Gravel stop getting invited to more forums debates once the calendar turns to October.
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Questions for Obama: The Democratic front-runner who didn’t show at yesterday’s AARP, Barack Obama, holds a “senior” town hall meeting in Ames, IA -- that, per the campaign, brings together senior citizens and high school seniors. But if Obama is talking to seniors in Iowa today, the question becomes: Why he didn’t talk to them at last night’s forum? It might have saved him from being dubbed the forum’s “big loser” by chief Iowa pundit David Yepsen. The other question hovering over Obama’s campaign is why he chose not to vote on yesterday’s Senate GOP resolution denouncing MoveOn. Clinton voted no on it, but Obama didn’t vote at all. Obama issued a statement saying that by not casting a vote, “I registered my protest against this empty politics.” But that statement came two and a half hours after First Read asked for a response. It was a strong statement, but why not say it in a more public way (i.e. verbalize it)?
*** Playing the outsider card: Speaking of Obama, he’s up with a new TV ad in Iowa on health care, which seems pegged to his senior town hall in the state. “Washington’s talked about health-care reform and reformed nothing. I’ve got a plan to cut costs and cover everyone. But unless we stop the bickering and the lobbyists, we’ll be in the same place 20 years from now,” he says in it. “I’m Barack Obama, and I approve this message because to fix health care, we have to fix Washington.” Doesn’t that last line sound very familiar to the new ad Romney is running? "If we're going to change Washington, Republicans have to put our own house in order,” the former Massachusetts governor says. “It's time for a change. And change begins with us.” Change is all the rage, and candidates in both parties realize the most authentic change agent is eventually going to get rewarded.
*** Iowa is just around the corner: For what seems like an eternity, we’ve been talking about how early this presidential race has started. Well, if you haven’t noticed -- whether you’re a candidate, voter, or journalist covering the contest -- it’s not so early anymore. The Iowa caucuses are just slightly more than three months away. Those caucuses, of course, signal only the beginning to a campaign season that will end about 14 months from today.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Biden and Dodd campaign in Iowa; Edwards also is in the state, where he delivers a policy address on education; Giuliani has already spoken to the Northern Virginia Technology Council; Kucinich talks to a union in Dayton, OH; and Romney is in Illinois. Also, the Biennial Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference begins today, and it will hear from the GOP candidates today and over the weekend.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 29 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 46 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 57 days
Countdown to Iowa: 115 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 120 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 137 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 410 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 487 days