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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Romney, McCain impress in MI

Posted: Monday, September 24, 2007 1:04 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike
MACKINAC ISLAND, Mich. -- While national GOP primary polls show what could become a protracted fight between Giuliani and Thompson, this weekend’s Republican Leadership Conference in Michigan revealed that right now the battle there might boil down to Romney and McCain.

Unlike his top three rivals who spoke before him, cameras didn’t swarm McCain when he made his way to the podium in the sprawling dining room of Mackinac’s Grand Hotel to speak before the dinner crowd. He may have been last in the order of the presidential contenders on the docket with his Saturday night pitch, but attendees gave him the warmest reception and buzzed about it afterward.

Michigan GOP Chairman Saul Anuzis said to reporters on Sunday morning, “I think John McCain gave the best speech I’ve ever seen him give. I told him that. It was from the heart, it was well-delivered.” Anuzis implied that McCain needed this kind of boost by indicating that there was some “anguish” among McCain supporters in the state leading up to the weekend’s event due to last week’s resignation by McCain’s former state chairman, Michigan Attorney General Mike Cox.

Despite Romney’s fierce opposition last week to invitations extended to Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to come before the U.N. General Assembly and also speak to students at Columbia University, it was McCain who got the most mileage out of the flap when he broached the issue. Romney’s speech only brushed on terrorism and didn’t get into specifics like McCain did on the Ahmadinejad visit. McCain’s comment that “I certainly think that a man who is threatening… and killing American troops should not be given an invitation to speak at an American university” earned him one of the few standing ovations awarded at the gathering.

Romney, meanwhile, paraded into the venue on Saturday morning, entering as “Michigan’s favorite son.” Anuzis offered: “I think he gave a good speech. It wasn’t the best speech I’ve ever heard, but he didn’t screw anything up either. But the enthusiasm was there from his supporters.”

And Anuzis pointed out that Romney was the only candidate to really work the dining room before taking the stage.” You could see people noticing that, and I think that was a really good strategy,” he said. “He was the only one who did it, which I was, to be honest with, surprised.”

Differences in techniques over the weekend aside, both Romney and McCain curry favor with the state Republican Party because both campaigns have had staff there for more than a year and have energized voters there. That has helped to build the party and raise into the millions for it.

For McCain it wasn’t just a strong performance or the recent presence of staffers there that helped propel him to second place in the Hotline’s straw poll there this weekend. His primary victory over George W. Bush in February 2000 has left him with a solid footing there nearly eight years later. Romney’s strength in the state, meanwhile, stems from his roots. He and wife Ann grew up there together, and his father, George, was governor in the Sixties.

Both campaigns bussed in a healthy dose of college students and came up with a 1-2 finish in the poll. Romney won a 39-percent plurality from the nearly 1,000 votes, and McCain garnered close to 27 percent. Ron Paul and Giuliani came in third and fourth, respectively, with about 11 percent each; Thompson managed just seven percent for a fifth-place finish. Anuzis explained that the composition probably reflects where the activists in the state fall with respect to the candidates, but not necessarily where the voters are.

Charges flew at certain times about the infusion of volunteers registered on behalf of certain campaigns, but Anuzis waved that off. “Everybody was bringing people up,” he said, whether they were volunteers or College Republicans, and California Rep. Duncan Hunter was no exception. 

“This is not an easy place to bring people in and leave,” Anuzis advised. “It’s a very expensive process in that a lot of people have to stay here the whole time.”

Due to the new ethics package, the cost to fly in privately would near $20,000 per candidate, likely causing second-tier candidates like Sam Brownback and Mike Huckabee to skip the confab in favor of other events, which may have been mildly injurious to them in the straw poll.

McCain was believed to have flown in on a commercial airline, and he arrived on Friday evening. He didn’t hop aboard a horse-drawn carriage to return to the mainland until Sunday morning, giving him the entire weekend to rub elbows with highly tuned-in Michigan Republicans. Rivals Giuliani, Thompson and Romney just swooped in for a partial day to give their speeches and attend events centered around them.

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Comments

Isn't the real story here that the candidate who Anuzis tried to get barred from the debate, Ron Paul, came in 3rd, beating out "top tier" candidate Giuliani?  How meaningful is it when you admit that Mitt and McCain bussed in their votes, of course they would win!  The author is ignoring the real winner of this straw poll, clearly Ron Paul.  Business as usual in the 'fair and balanced' media.
"Anuzis explained that the composition probably reflects where the activists in the state fall with respect to the candidates, but not necessarily where the voters are."

There is another way to paraphrase that:

"Anuzis explained that the composition probably reflects where the memberhsip in the state fall with respect to the candidates, but not necessarily where the party leaders are."

This was a backhanded implicit slap at the Paul-unteers By Anuzis, who doesn't like the good doctor anyway because the good doctor, unlike Anuzis and others of his neocon ilk, knows the mental health risks of overdosing on red kool-aid.  
Wow! They are sooooo impressive that nobody cares to talk about them. HMMMMM.
Here...let me help the MSM and MSNBC with their candidate dyselexia: His name is Ron Paul. That's spelled R-O-N P-A-U-L. Maybe this will aid in your inability to actually write the story and not some wacky interpetation of it. One more thing: This is the FIRST straw poll where ALL ofthe "first tier" candidates presented. P-A-U-L beat two of them. "That's" the story.
So what if McCann came in with a strong message? what will he gain? Nada!!! he is out of step in a America. A George Bush parrot, he sprouts the same mantra War, Death, Terrorist, ever since he was a POW he lived the moments day after day after day. Fight, Kill, War, it's all he knows. "RETIREMENT" should be his goal.
Go Ron Paul! Tying Giuliani, why only a passing mention? I don't get it!
Who gives a crap about Ron?
Ron Paul is on a roll......the stiff necked media can't stop it.  Come on everybody....Freedom has a good ring to it!  Let the dummy downed media eat duck soup with Rudy, McCain, Fred and the rest.  Only one guy stands tall here..........Ron Paul!
Ron Paul only got a passing mention because he's not a Republican and he doesn't have a snowball's chance in Michigan of winning the Republican nomination.
This article slanted, it seemed to me, towards the comeback of McCain.  
Mr. Ivory why don'y you show a little respect. Last I heard McCain out of all of these Yahoos running for president is the only one to have severed in the military. You or I wouldn't have hasted five minutes in the pit he spent years in while a POW!
It should day Romney and McCain DEPRESSED Michigan for their flipflopping ability. Ron Paul is the ONLY sane choice for President.
The dark horse moves into the number 3 slot, but he's INVISIBLE!  When he wins, the announcers get FIRED.  Looks like they were working for someone other than the race track.

Everyone knows Romney is FROM Michigan, right?  His dad was Guv, and he's annointed by the MI GOP elite. Hello, McPike!
Big surprise. Romney & McCain buses in AND PAID FOR college students to vote in the straw poll. In contrast, Ron Paul's supporters paid their own way. Who would have come in first really? Do you really want someone who buys your vote? Seems a little slimy to me.
Huckabee is pro-union, I hoped to see him here.
How could MSNBC not mention that SEA OF RON PAUL SUPPORTERS that drowned out every other candidate? He placed 3rd in the poll beating out Giuliani. How is this not significant? This article is unfair, unfree and anti-American. MSNBC should take their operation to Iran where concealing truth is expected.
I needn't repeat what the other posters have pointed out. I agree this story is a sham; it's incredible what passes for journalism. As I've written here before, NBC Political Director Chuck Todd and his staff are either unwilling or unable to recognize the sincere and broadening interest people have in Dr. Paul. It will be interesting to see, provided Dr. Paul's fundraising this quarter improves even further, the reaction of mainstream media outlets like this one. MSNBC affiliate National Journal is now on the offensive against Dr. Paul and marginalizing him to the fullest with their rather absurd bi-weekly rating system of candidate standing. Buzz, fundraising, polling are supposed factors and yet they rank Dr. Paul in seventh place. His fundraising has been superior to McCain, the buzz about him is far beyond Huckabee or Brownback, and his polling results online and in straw polls have conistently averaged better than all his rivals. It is nice to see his solid performance in spite of the media blackout.
Get out of my state you rich farks. From another source speaking about the GOP's time at Mackinac Island:

Those pedestrians who have not paid $400 or so for a room cannot even walk near the hotel. "This is as far as you can go," bark guards in red jackets. A nearby sign explains that ladies "may not be attired in slacks" and gentlemen must wear coats and ties after 6 p.m.

On its face, this is not the sort of place that Republicans would want to hold a two-day, four-meal banquet celebration of democracy, especially if they want to win any elections in Michigan. The blue-collar state, which is locked in a recession, has the highest unemployment rate in the nation, 7.2 percent. Homes are foreclosing in Detroit at five times the national average, and the state government is broke. As of a week ago, 73,000 employees of General Motors began working without a contract. "The hopelessness that exists is just something I have never seen," said Denise DeCook, a Republican pollster who has worked in the state for decades. In one of her recent polls, 81 percent of its residents said Michigan was on the wrong track.
-----

I cant wait for them to start the ad's talking about how they are "down to earth" with the working class.

Get the fark out of my state, liars.
Romney and McCain bus in their supporters.  Ron Paul supporters show up all by themselves.
Dave,

Ron Paul also served in the Military.
OH  Dave the poor little old man is a hero!  He should be home polishing his medals.  I feel sorry for him, out making a fool of himself after being treated like shit by  shrub and the GOP! Has he no pride left.
I think the important point in this article is that Romney and McCain "bussed in a healthy dose of college students" and probably paid for their support while Ron Paul generated true grass roots supporters. The enthusiasm of the Paulites is unsurpassed!  I think 3rd quarter campaign contributions will raise a few eyebrows from the MSM.  Go Ron Paul!
Dave, you are incorrect in saying McCain is the only "yahoo" running for president to have served in the military (I assume you meant "served" rather than "severed", as you spelled it).  Ron Paul served 5 years in the Air Force (from 1962-1968, I think).
Dave,  Ron Paul served in the military as a flight surgeon.  Craig, Ron Paul is the ONLY Republican -- if you consider what the R party is supposed to stand for!
"Isn't the real story here that the candidate who Anuzis tried to get barred from the debate, Ron Paul, came in 3rd, beating out "top tier" candidate Giuliani?  How meaningful is it when you admit that Mitt and McCain bussed in their votes, of course they would win!  The author is ignoring the real winner of this straw poll, clearly Ron Paul.  Business as usual in the 'fair and balanced' media."

PRECISELY.
I can understand the CFR and military industrial complex run media to try and discredit Ron Paul. I understand that when criminality and political protectionism has become your sole responsibility, you can't have a man of Truth sparking a revolution of ideas on your watch....

...but for God's sake, people, you don't have to join them!

Wake the heck up! Ron Paul is the MAN. And this is from someone who can't STAND politicians.
"THE PEOPLE" PICK PAUL!!
What a wonderful thing the Ron Paul Revolution is doing to unite "WE THE PEOPLE"!!
We have a VOICE! And we have a VOTE!
Google Ron Paul and let YOUR VOICE and VOTE count!
GO RON PAUL!!
"THE PEOPLE" PICK PAUL!
What a wonderful thing the Ron Paul Revolution is doing to unite "WE THE PEOPLE"!
We have a VOICE!! And we have a VOTE!!
Google Ron Paul and let YOUR VOICE and VOTE count!!
GO!RON PAUL!!
There right about not giving Ron enough time, he did beat Rudy and Fred, what does that mean? I dont think its a fluke that he keeps getting all of this support...maybe he's not the Mike Gravel of the GOP?

McCain has to fight to get the nomination but I think in the end Republicans will see he is their best bet.
The Republican hardcore wanted Ron Paul more than Thompson and Giuliani. Interesting. Ron Paul supporters are usually very intense and are continually recruiting. I bet that 10% is going to aggressively campaign in the next four months too.
Everytime I get a slight interest in Ron paul. The conspiracy people from the their camp get so agitated that I dismiss them. This is not meet to be a slam it sounds like he had a good turn out; but perhaps his supporters could be more persausive about the man and less advorsarial about everyone else.
Zeek,

No offense friend, but unless you were THERE on the island, like I and several other posters were, you cannot discredit what WE saw. The OVERWHELMING support there on the Island was for Ron Paul. Even Romney's bussed in (and yes they were paid $50 to vote) came up to us and converted to Ron Paul. The few loyalists to their sugar-daddy for the weekend were extremely dispassionate and sounded like a cult led in a chant. Most of the Romney people put Ron Paul bumper stickers on their shirts even at the "ice cream social" Romney held for them. We have video of ALL of this.

We personally spoke to hundreds and hundreds of people, and they were most interested in Dr. Paul. Our booth was constantly visited.

There is simply no way that Romney won the straw poll, fairly. That isn't because we WANT to believe it, but because we were THERE and saw it with our own eyes and recorded it on video.

So, Zeek, you can be flaky all you want, but if you don't want to hear the truth, you won't be voting for Ron Paul anyway.  
Craig is it just my imagination but I'm thinking that snowballs do quite well there in Michigan, at least they did last I was there. GO RON GO!


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