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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Oh-eight (D): Elizabeth v. Hillary, again

Posted: Tuesday, September 25, 2007 9:22 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

The New York Times’ David Brooks looks at the power of the netroots within the Democratic Party and concludes it may not be as powerful as they think. 

After an eight-hour meeting in Chicago yesterday, the executive board of the Service Employees International Union decided not to endorse a candidate in the Democratic primary for now. The executive board will revisit the issue of an endorsement on October 8, after the third quarter fund-raising totals are in. The delay in choosing a candidate to endorse gives Obama the opportunity to meet with and persuade SEIU leaders that he is the best contender, and the Chicago Sun-Times' Lynn Sweet reports that "there are elements within the leadership who want to stop Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, who is the front-runner…."

BIDEN: The candidate has an op-ed in the Columbia State today that outlines his partition plan for Iraq.

Yesterday, the campaign announced that Biden had picked up his ninth endorsement from an Iowa legislator: House Speaker Pro Tempore Polly Bukta (D-Clinton).

CLINTON: The Politico has this scoop: “Early this summer, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign for president learned that the men’s magazine GQ was working on a story [by Atlantic Monthly writer Joshua Green] the campaign was sure to hate: an account of infighting in Hillaryland. So Clinton’s aides pulled a page from the book of Hollywood publicists and offered GQ a stark choice: Kill the piece, or lose access to planned celebrity coverboy Bill Clinton.” 
 

“Despite internal protests, GQ editor Jim Nelson met the Clinton campaign’s demands, which had been delivered by Bill Clinton’s spokesman, Jay Carson, several sources familiar with the conversations said. GQ writer George Saunders traveled with Clinton to Africa in July, and Clinton is slated to appear on the cover of GQ’s December issue, in which it traditionally names a ‘Man of the Year,’ according magazine industry sources… The spiked GQ story also shows how the Clinton campaign has been able to use its access to the most important commodity in media - celebrity, and in fact two bona fide celebrities - to shape not just what gets written about the candidate, but also what doesn’t.”

The Atlantic has the script of the radio ad Clinton launched in South Carolina Monday, which targets black women -- many of whom recent polls show are undecided about who to support in the Jan. 20 primary. The ad says, in part: “Time and again, Hillary Clinton has stood up to President Bush…stood up FOR us. Hillary: And if you’re stuck on a rooftop or stranded in the Superdome during a hurricane you’re invisible to this president even when you’re on CNN. Well, you are not invisible to me, and you should never be invisible to the president of the United States.” 

Evan Bayh's "endorsement helps the Clinton campaign make the case that she is electable despite distaste for her among some moderate and conservative-leaning voters."

EDWARDS
: The AP on Edwards’ policy rollout yesterday on combating HIV/AIDS: “He called for spending $50 billion over five years on H.I.V./AIDS treatment and using World Health Organization, rather than Food and Drug Administration, standards to speed the availability of new AIDS drugs.”

Elizabeth Edwards is proving -- once again -- that she'll be her husband's attack dog on Clinton. Per an interview with the N.Y. Daily News, "Hillary Clinton didn't just fail to get universal health care as First Lady, she and her husband, Bill, ditched it to stockpile political clout for other fights, Elizabeth Edwards told the Daily News. ‘It failed when the Clinton administration pulled this, when they said, “We're not going to use any more political capital on this, on the fight for universal health care.” And that's an important part that Sen. Clinton leaves out.’” More from Elizabeth Edwards: “‘They lost the fight in 1993, pulled it out because they wanted to use their political capital to get NAFTA passed as opposed to universal health care in '94.’”

OBAMA: The Los Angeles Times looks at an interesting campaign tactic being employed by the Obama camp in Nevada: It is recruiting supporters from surrounding states to canvass Nevada. “So far, California groups have traveled from the Bay Area to Reno, and from Los Angeles, Orange County and San Diego to Las Vegas. Arizona volunteers -- 21 last weekend -- also target the Las Vegas area; volunteers from Utah and Idaho focus on Elko and other rural areas in the vast northeast part of the state.”

(The Obama campaign will hate this comparison, but this sounds awfully similar to what Dean’s campaign did in Iowa -- and it was something that eventually turned off Iowans. Then again, Nevada is made up of outsiders, so maybe residents will be more open to outsiders coming into the state to talk up Obama.)

It looks like the entire Dem field is shifting its criticism of Clinton by downplaying her electability. Per NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann, former Iowa Democratic Party Chairman Gordon Fischer yesterday used the E-word when he endorsed Obama, saying that Obama has "best chance" of winning the White House and helping "down-ballot" candidates in the process. Fischer's focus on electability emphasizes a point that's echoed over and over again by experts here in Iowa: caucus voters are pragmatists. If they're going to invest the time in sifting through all the candidates, they're darn well going to caucus for a winner.

Fischer wouldn't say as much, but journalists questioned whether his "down-ballot" remark might be aimed at Hillary Clinton, who some Democrats fear will be a drag on the rest of the party if she's the eventual nominee. Obama and Edwards certainly aren't arguing with that assessment.  And yesterday, Dodd spokeswoman Colleen Flanagan said in a press release, "I can understand why the President would want Senator Clinton to be the nominee." 

The Boston Globe's Canellos calls the "political marriage" between Obama and Jesse Jackson "among the most freighted. The two men need each other's support, yet also need to keep their distance. Each serves as a standing critique of the other, yet they profess to share similar goals."

RICHARDSON: Keep an eye on the New Mexico governor at tomorrow night's debate. Based on this release, it looks like the governor is determined to prove that he's the only major candidate calling for an immediate withdrawal in Iraq. By lumping Edwards and Obama in with Clinton on Iraq, of course, probably ends up helping Clinton.

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Comments

The Dean comparison is faulty, as he brought in people from all over the place into Iowa, mostly consisting of young non-Midwesterners in bright orange hats.  What Obama is doing is getting people from the same region; a few miles one way or another over a state border means very little in terms of culture.  In fact, Obama's organization-based approach is the exact opposite of Dean's, which was based in anything but traditional community organization principles on the ground.  The best comparison to the Dean campaign in this cycle is Clinton, whose huge national lead is setting up big expectations in Iowa that threatens to kill her campaign; if you look at Iowa campaign itself, the candidate who is best using the winning 2004 approach of optimism is Obama (the success of Kerry and Edwards, as opposed to the negative ads of the trailing Dean and Gephardt).  
Obama is done.  Now's he's just spending the money people contributed to him.
Biden is a glad handing liberal gas bag. He's only in this to fund his retirement with tax payer dollars.
Richardson can make all the stories he wants, he's not going to win.

Maybe John should give it up and let Elizabeth run, can you imagine Elizabeth and Hillary in a debate?  Talk about a cat fight!
Clinton's "electability" comes in large part by having Rupert Murdoch in her corner.  The dog and pony confrontations on Fox will still be there but by golly she'll fight.  Forget substance.  This whole experience notion is absurd. It has been twisted and boxed.  Reality is Obama's experience proves him to be a leader and to be what this country needs.  Readers research then vote.
 Obama concedes Biden has what may be the best diplomatic solution.  They both believe in a phased withdrawal. As candidates they share the best understanding of Iraq. Obama knows how to listen.
His health care plan was nearly copied by Clinton.   Hers is more big brother because of mandatory stipulations. This whole nonsensical "experience" shows us that she plays Washington and the press in a way we are tired of.  Obama's experience is superior and what this country needs.  He knows how to lead.
   
I'm glad to see the Edwards' camp continuing to go after Hillary.  Not because I think it'll help them, but because I think she'll make toast of them, and hasten their departure from the field.
You can always tell when the end of a fundraising quarter nears - Elizabeth Edwards goes on the warpath.
I LOVE ELIZABETH EDWARDS....KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!!
John Edwards is a wimp. He needs his wife to fight his battles for him.
I think that in this time and place in American and world history, Clinton is exactly what we need.  Obama has called her "Bush-Cheney Lite", I think a small case can be made for calling Obama "Bush-Cheney Left".  Bush came in as a 'compassionate conservative' with not much experience but with goals and idea's to bring the country together in a bi-partisan way, he said he knew how to reach across the isle.  He didn't.  He was an idealogue who wanted everything to work out in a nice conservative way just because he wished it to be so.  I think Obama is an idealogue also, he has very good ideas I think, but if there's something we should've learned in the last six years, is that wishing doesn't make it so.  Just because something makes sense doesn't mean it's going to become law in this country.  So you want to scrap the way politics in Washington works and build it back up as a compassionate, common sense institution?  More power to you.  But I just don't see that happening from scratch right now.
    We have a war in Iraq in a permanent holding pattern, we're trillions of dollars in debt to China, the middle class is disapearing into a bottomlees hole of credit card debt, gas is pushing $3 a gallon, jobs are pouring overseas, health care is to the point where it's fast becoming an intsitution of economic genocide, and you want to send in Mr. Rainbows and butterflies to snap his fingers and smile and make it all better?  The next Democratic President is in for a knock down drag out fight with an entrenched corporate establishment, and eight years of bitterly dirty politics, international and internal distrust.  I  want someone who can hit hard and play the game that's being played, not someone just off the bench and who doesn't like the rules.  No one likes the way this government is working right now, but I think we're going to needs someone who knows how it works to fix it, and someone who's not above getting her hands a little dirty in the process.  Maybe I'm being too pragmatic, but I want a Democratic George S. Patton walking into the White House in 2009 rather than Mr. Rodgers.
Mike:

I think you forgot who caused all the problems with China in the first place:

Clinton signs China trade bill
October 10, 2000
Web posted at: 6:28 p.m. EDT (2228 GMT)

By Matt Smith/CNN

WASHINGTON (CNN) -- President Clinton closed years of political and economic debate Tuesday, and sealed a major achievement of his administration by signing a bill extending permanent, normal trade status to China.


"Today we take a major step toward China's entry into the World Trade Organization and a major step toward answering some of the central challenges of this new century," Clinton said in a bipartisan White House ceremony Tuesday afternoon.

"Trade with China will not only extend our nation's unprecedented economic growth, it offers us a chance to help shape the future of the world's most prosperous nation and to reaffirm our own global leadership for peace and prosperity."

Bill Clinton was the president when he signed to trade with China.  he is the idiot responsible for all the bad products coming over here.
Mike - You should read more by and about Obama.  One of the key defining themes in his life that has formed and driven him is that he's a pragmatist and not an idealogue.
I wish Elizabeth Edwards well in her struggle against cancer.  However, her attacks on Hillary Clinton are nothing but utter desperation and remind everyone just how far ahead Hillary is. Instead of attacks, Edwards and Obama need some substance to overcome Hillary.  But because there is no substance, strength or experience amongst the two of them, they are forced to go on the attack against a fellow democrat – pathetic!
If you think "partitioning" Iraq is gonna be a cakewalk that will quickly bring our troops home, you need your head examined.

They will fight it tooth and nail, with real bullets, IEDs, and dead GIS, if for no other reason than that we are doing the partitioning.

And after we spend eight bloody years trying to impose that partition, the 2016 Presidential Campaign will feature a stunning New Plan that insists that the only way to "bring 'em home" will be to UNIFY Iraq.

Well, gosh  --  I guess the toughest thing about administering an unwilling colony is convincing the folks back home how easy it'll be to sell them furriners a plan that the home folks themselves'd never buy in a million years, huh?  

Mike is right!  He said it well.  None of the present candidates in either party fit Mike's requirements.  One man of neither party does and he hasn't declared yet.  I am waiting patiently for him.
Jerry
Don't get me wrong, I like Obama as well, I think he's got some really great ideas and real drive to make them happen.  And I have no doubt the country will be better off by far as his ideas are worked into the fabric of our country.  I just really believe that right now is not his time.  If he is nominated though I will work my butt off to get him elected and wish him the best.

Yes, I'm aware Clinton signed the trade bill with China, he opened the doors to allow capitalism to work it's change over there the way it helped work some change into the Soviet Union.  I thought it would be a good idea in the long run too, Clinton opened the door, but GWB turned on the blue light special and turned the country into China's private Sam's Club. Why is there such an 'all or nothing' attitude on the right sometimes? Why do they assume that just because Bush can't do it, it can't be done?  Or because someone else did it, or at least tried to do the right way, then they can go in and screw it up and just point a finger back 10 years ago and say "He started it"  If you think it's a bad idea, then that makes you an idiot if you keep doing it.  Stop blaming people and go fix it.  Or shut up, get out of the way, and let someone in there who can.
DELEWARE REPUBLICAN:

We get it.  You don't like Biden.  

But, you like calling him variations on "wind bag."

Guess it takes one to know one.
Rick -

The key component of the plan is to bring neighboring countries into the process.  It is called diplomacy.  

When you  simplify for your own political purposes you are behaving exactly like the Bush Administration.
Elizabeth  --

To pretend that such "diplomacy" will not be based on military force is foolish at best, dishonest at worst.

I notice you do not claim that the Iraqis will not violently resist partitioning, because, quite simply, you can't.

Pointing out the exceptionally probable outcome of any given action is hardly pursuing my "own political purposes"  --  and is, in fact, exactly the opposite of how the Bush Administration has always behaved. Putting on rose-colored glasses, spewing best-case-only scenarios, and ignoring stark realities ... those are the hallmarks of the Bushistas  --  and, it appears, the Bidenites as well.

Rick - What do you propose as the solution to the problems in Iraq?  I hear a lot of people complaining about this plan or that plan, but not many offering up what they think would be a good plan.

I don't know if partitioning would work.  As Biden pointed out, it seems to be working in the former Yugoslovia.  Iraq as it exists today is not a nation of people who are tied together through some shared experience or characteristics.  It never was.  It was an area that was given artificial boundaries when the region was "given" to Britain after WWI.  Why not let it return to some sort of natural boundaries?

I wonder what the people of Iraq think about Biden's plan.  I like it, but I'm not sure that it is something that it would be fair to just impose on them, given that our big emphasis now is on making Iraq a democratic state.  
DELAWARE REPUBLICAN:

President Biden will work to protect your retirement too.  You can thank him later.
Carrie  --

"Letting it return" to some sort of "natural boundaries" is not at all the same as telling them what those boundaries are going to be, and when, and how. Not even remotely. Not to mention the population relocation which will be necessarily involved, with all the "Trail of Tears" potentialities that holds.

Biden's "plan" requires the Iraqis to accept three partitions, none of which would be powerful enough to defend itself, under a "weak" (read: US-controlled) central government  --  which by definition lacks the strength to keep the three parts in line without active US military assistance well into the foreseeable future.

Iraq is not Yugoslavia, or anything even remotely resembling it; the intellectual, religious, and social traditions that accepted that kind of settlement in the Europe will resist it in the Middle East  --  and resist it hard.

And the more we try to cloak our colonization in a welter of "we-know-what's-best-for-you-little-brothers" rhetoric and self-serving political "solutions", the more they can be expected to resist hard; does anyone here think their leaders have not studied the way the West has run this same game on them since WWI? We have no credibility, not a shred; and after all that has gone down in Iraq since our invasion, simply changing Presidents (unlike here, where we just love to be gulled time and again) is not going to affect that credibility one little jot.

My solution? Well, if you want to turn Iraq into a permanent, unwilling, dependent protectorate  --  with a permanent active US military presence and all the cost and casualties that involves  --  go ahead and cut 'er up. Otherwise, get the hell out  --  with all the oil-market disruptions and inter-civilian violence attendant on the sort of "natural" correction of Iraqi boundaries you mention.

Finally, Carrie  --  I'm just an analyst. I report on the probable costs and risks of given course of action as honestly as I possibly can, based on a certain amount of actual training in the fields where I venture to comment at all. I am commenting here because the proponents of partitioning are making it sound like a strictly bloodless diplomatic venture  --  and it will not be.

It will not bring the troops home quickly; it will, in fact, prolong our shooting presence in Iraq.

Now, those who told y'all the invasion/occupation wouldn't be a cakewalk should have been listened to; and those who are telling you now that partitioning won't be one, either, should also be listened to; the job of an analyst is not to propose an alternate plan every time he or she spots a glaring flaw  --  it is simply to let you know what the hell you're about to step in so you don't end up crying three years hence:

"Gosh, if only I'd known then what I know now ... !"

Y'all were told back then what would happen if you blundered into Iraq, and you're being told now what will happen if you partition Iraq.

Hope y'all make better use of the information this time around.

 
Elizabeth:  Delaware Republican and most of the other repubs in Delaware hate joe because they have not been able to unseat him for 30+ years after he beat their legend Boggs for his senate seat. Joe was 29 years old.
The intellecctuals in the Senate, Dems and Reps are not considering Bidens Federation plan as partitioning
I detest David Brooks. Thanks, MSNBC for giving me a place to state this. Brooks, like Bush,  doesn't understand how democracy works. (Probably he has never been to a genuine Town Meeting.)A democracy is not a tug of war between left and right. Its not about which side has the ball. A democracy is government by open debate which produces a better result than if one side or the other had its own way. I have sat in a Town Meeting and actually felt my mind change on issues I thought I had resolved. In a Town Meeting things get pretty heated, but often the debate produces consensus, or a more informed point of view, and sometimes a radical new solution. This is what is so powerful about democracy and why the netroots are as important as David Brook's much vaunted "center." Not to mention that the fact that the left wing loonies Brooks puts down have been more correct in their judgments on the Bush administration than Brooks has been.
Few people had heard of John Edwards until he wowed the Bilderburg Conference in 2003 and was "anointed" to be John Kerry's running mate.  Edwards is very well connected--CFR, Bilderburg and has lots of money.  He probably won't win since he comes across as smarmy and insincere.  And there are other CFR candidates running (virtually everyone except Gravel, Kucinich and Ron Paul).  Whoever wrote about Murdoch was partially right; he is CFR also and may explain why his FOX network tries to thrash Ron Paul in each Fox debate. Unfair and unbalanced.
Nobody is saying partitioning will be bloodless but unless we take diplomatic action vacuums will be filled by forces like Iran, the Sunnis will have to count on Syria and Saudi Arabia then where do we go.  Something has to be done and Biden has the best option.
Brooks' comment about the net roots loosing steam is probably right.

What Brooks got wrong was the reason why.

The NetRoots are not losing their grip on the imagination because of a culture clash with blue collar dems.

They are losing their clout because the NetRoots are becoming more and more an echo chamber, intolerant of dissent and enforcing the orthodoxies of immediate withdrawal, single payor health coverage and Bush's impeachment.

Should the NetRoots go back to the previous form of airing divergent ideas and debating their merits, they will quickly regain their role as the leading edge of political discourse in this country.
Rick:

I have concerns about partitioning; I believe I stated as much.  I have concerns about anything involving Iraq, but that's only natural given the incredible mess our lack of foresight got us into there.  

As I said, I don't like the idea of the U.S. - or the so-called Coalition of the Willing - forcing this on the Iraqi people.  At the same time, I am not sure they are willing to do what is necessary to have a flourishing democracy, independent of U.S. occupation.  I'm not sure they are willing to do what is necessary to take responsibility for their country, to be honest.  

But thank you for your reasonable and thoughtful response.  :)
John Edwards is an enormous phony. His wife is a disingenuous attack dog. They are subtly putting forth a detestable argument: neither a black nor a woman can be elected, so you better play it safe and go with Edwards.

Both Hillary and Obama would out-perform this huckster in the states where he alleges they can't win, because, well, red-staters are just too racist and mysoginistic to vote for them.

He really needs to stop that argument - it's reprehensible, and it's not the way to win a primary in a party that is PROUD of the fact that its front-runners are such pioneering individuals.

Jeez that guy's a phony.  
Randy
Can't believe you're from Greenville, SC!!
Amy I agree Brooks makes my skin crawl.  He is such a snoot! He kisses any ass stuck in his face, as long as it is the middle of his face.
His point of view is limited to his point of view.
I love van and j. Merle too! Well I think I love nuanced the most.


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