Wow.  That sets the expectations bar really high.  With the polls in IA so very tight, a close 2nd or even a strong third wouldn't be the end of the road for him, not with the enormous resources he has, and especially if the difference between 1st and 3rd is just a few percentage points.  Obama still has a decent chance in NH, due to the fact that independents and even republicans can vote in the dem primary, (the same group that gave McCain his landslide in 2000) and a real chance to pull in a large number of African-American votes in SC {almost half of all registered dems in the state})  I wonder if this was a totally off the cuff remark by Mrs. Obama that she will regret, or a way to get Obama supporters revved up and into high gear...

Its sad to think about all the money and time being spent by these democratic candidates because Hillary IS going win. What is even worse is the time and money the republican candidates are spending just to see which one of them WILL lose to her in the general election next year.

Maybe she should have said “If  Barack doesn’t manage a decent debate performance, then it’s over”.

And his performance last night was his worst debate performance ever.

Once again, he was completely overshadowed by Hillary’s strong and commanding performance.  She looks and sounds presidential while Obama and the rest shrink in stature when they share a platform with her.

I don’t know who the GOP nominee will be but whoever it is will also suffer the stature gap when they debate Hillary.  After 6 ½  disastrous years of the Bush administration – Americans want competence.  And that’s exactly what Hillary offers!

MO in Iowa: "Just where the hell are all the black people???"

There's a big difference between saying this to voters in Iowa to build a sense of urgency and importance, and saying this to the national press.  It's just simply more dramatic and inspiring to say to the troops that "we need to win this game", as opposed to "we need to do well", so I wouldn't read too much into it.  If anything, Obama is the one who could best weather not coming in first in Iowa; for instance, if Obama came in second to Edwards in Iowa, Clinton would collapse, and Obama would have a good shot of beating Edwards in NH due to a mix of influential independent voters and a historically  regional disadvantage for Southern Candidates in that state.  Therefore, first place in Iowa is not do or die for Obama the same way it is for Edwards (due to his focus on the state) or Hillary (due to the rash of negative stories that would come out from a non-first place finish, given the high Dean-like expectations her national numbers are creating in the media).

The media continually misquote Michelle or take her statement out of context and make it about someone else.  Just like the comment about "running your own house, you can't run the white house".  I'm sure that reporter who changed her words to "over" from dream is trying to sabotage Obama.  And you wonder sometimes why the news aren't always good about him, when reporters make stuff up.  Shame on them.

Looks like it was a verbal slip up.

http://www.forbes.com/feeds/ap/2007/09/27/ap4164423.html

Obama Camp Plays Down Wife's Comment

"DES MOINES, Iowa - The campaign of Democrat Barack Obama moved quickly Thursday to dampen any expectations raised by Michelle Obama who said this week that her husband has to win Iowa.

Most polls in Iowa show the Illinois senator in a tight race with Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and John Edwards. During a visit Wednesday to Davenport, Iowa, Michelle Obama commented on the importance of a strong showing in the caucuses.

"Iowa will make the difference," she said. "If Barack doesn't win Iowa, it is just a dream. If we win Iowa then we can move to the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen."

Typically, meeting expectations in Iowa is nearly as important as who actually wins, so candidates are careful about their public comments on the importance they place on a victory."

Whoops, happens though.  If Obama comes in second or third in IA, even a very strong second or third, look for the media to pull out this quote and wave it around.

That is why experience at being the wife of a candidate does not count as experience at actually being the candidate.

Just posted; very bad timing, coming just before the end of the 3rd quarter:

Edwards says he'll accept public financing

http://www.cnn.com/2007/POLITICS/09/27/edwards.public.financing/index.html

The gist is the same -- Michelle Obama clearly implied that a poor showing in the state means the end of the road for Obama. And saying, "win" instead of the usual moderate-expectation-setting "do well," is significant. But the ultimatum of "it's over" was not uttered.


Do you guys have anything to do other than try to micromanage every word that comes out of her mouth.

here's another analysis:

So says Michelle Obama. (Tip to Ben Smith).
In this, she's echoing something Obama tells his donors at private fundraisers. He needs to win Iowa or else he won't win anywhere else.
And yet -- this isn't an accurate portrayal of Obama's strategy.
If he loses Iowa, he'll have $15 million dollars in the bank. New Hampshire voters are temperamentally opposed to ratifying Iowa's results, and many more independents will vote there. If Obama's New Hampshire team does its job right, they'll be fairly sticky. And then, a week later, comes South Carolina. And if Iowa was really the linchpin of the strategy, the campaign would not be spending millions to organize supporters in California.
True, Iowa is crucial, critical, even. But if Obama places a close second to Hillary Clinton, or a close second to John Edwards, he's not going to drop out.
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It may just be a way of trying to "rally the troops" in Iowa, by making them think it's very important. Or, their hard-count may tell them that they have an advantage in Iowa that the polls are somehow missing (his outreach to moderate Repubs? Young voters?) and as such thinks he's laying the groundwork for a big bounce when he does win. Or who knows


http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2007/09/obama_will_lose_if_he_doesnt_w.php#comments

One thing that got me was Hillary seemed to come off very confident so much that it appeared arrogant.  Several times I heard her reference “she, the president”.  I can’t say that attacking her is the right thing to do but I definitely think that Barack needs to set himself apart in a good way.  Obama seems to understand that the Presidency is an office held in representation of the people for it and by it.  Barack illustrates his knowledge when he says that America needs to and wants to hear the truth.  Hillary doesn't even know it but he's setting her up to exploit her weaknesses by showing his strengths.  

Barack shows why he’s better and that he will not be arrogant and make assumptions about holding the office.  He reminds everyone that we’ve lived in arrogance for 7 years and that is the reason the President and the Senate made the mistake about Iraq.  He reminds everyone that this overly confident cocky attitude will lead this country into another 4-8 years of deadlock government and that our country can’t afford to make that mistake again.  

It's a matter of time before everyone looks at how Hillary presents herself.  This is actually Hillary that loss because she can't truly seperate herself from the other candidates nor answer the questions in full.  Obama is right to not lower himself to those tactics and to continue on the path that he is on.

Obama does not have a chance.  He never did have a chance.  It's Hillary all the way.  And she's going to get CRUSHED come election day 2008!

A majority of Americans can't be idiots, meaning Hillary couldn't possibly get elected.  Her ties to crooks and dirty money, her outright lies and flip flops...

Is Hillary going to pull troops out of Iraq?  Earlier she said she would.  Now she says she can't guarantee it.  What a fraud!

csh Illinois - We must have been watching totally different debates as I thought this was Hillary's worst performance ever - Tim Russert really got to her.  As far as Barack's performance, I think it was ok, better than Hillary's but not as good as Edwards.
And no matter who the dem nominee is, that person will get my vote as any of the top 4 (Biden, Clinton, Edwards or Obama) would do a better job than any of the repub candidates.

Personally, I would attack H.R. Clinton if I was B. Obama.  There is a big difference between mudslinging and openly debating.  If he would debate openly, such as calling her partisan or crooked, then I don’t think it goes against the politics he stands for.  However, it would seem that B. Obama truly wants to clean up politics.  I disagree with the tactic, but it makes me respect the man so much more.  I predict that three months from now he will be elect-able with integrity and he will WIN Iowa.

The only problem with not participating in dirty politics, is what’s going to happen when he faces the repubs?  We know H.R. Clinton’s strategy is going to be to go to war and play partisan, and that is not good either.

obama's performance was one of his worse ever,, and again he leaves it to his wife and staff to be on the offense (bush , anyone)

Edwards gave one of his best performance
Clinton was okay, definately not one of her best.

Just like her husband, the media is always twisting whatever Michelle says and tries to spin things to undermine Obama's campaign.
I don't know what the media has against this man but, it is getting so tiring.  Especially because they go to the same lengths to promote Hillary.

 Biden pointed out how Clinton's "experience" will eventually turn against her.  Obama pointed out why her efforts for universal health care was lonely.  She is an entrenched panderer after her coronation.
 The problem his that her constituencies are in high places so the spin will favor in her direction.  When the rhetoric of policy and plans is similar there is little to debate.
 The actual implementation of ideas can only come from a committed leader.  The last twenty five years favors Obama's experience clearly.  Sound bites and dirt clod fights shouldn't decide an election.  Hopefully Americans will vote intelligently.  Obama/Webb 08

The media continually misquote Michelle or take her statement out of context and make it about someone else. ;;;;;


For sure.  Saying "we're going to win" can be interpreted in so many ways.

What is it with all these wacky spouses for all the Dem candidates.

Obama had the flu last night...his wife said so on a local NH station earlier in the day. She said he and their youngest daughter were sick and they had not slept much due to being sick  The guy had no energy left at the debate...you could see it.

Let's go easy on him...most of us would have taken the day off from work if we had the flu.

You guys for Obama are whistling in the dark.  The lights are about to go out, the party is almost over.

See Rasmussen Reports, the most respected poll around:

Clinton has an 17 point lead in the Real Clear Politics averages of the most recently released national polls.

Democratic Presidential Nomination
Poll Date Sample Clinton Obama Edwards Richardson Spread
RCP Average 09/12 to 09/26 - 40.5 23.3 13.8 3.6 Clinton +17.2
Rasmussen 09/23 - 09/26 750 LV 40 24 14 4 Clinton +16
CBS News* 09/14 - 09/16 Adults 43 22 16 -- Clinton +21
Gallup 09/14 - 09/16 531 A 47 25 11 5 Clinton +22
Reuters/Zogby 09/13 - 09/16 LV 35 21 10 3 Clinton +14
Pew Research 09/12 - 09/16 568 RV 42 25 14 3 Clinton +17
Cook/RT Strategies 09/13 - 09/15 405 RV 36 23 18 3 Clinton +13

And this:

Moreover, examination of the most recently released polls in Iowa show her position improving over the last month or so, moving to a 5% lead in the last two polls to have been released.

New Hampshire tells a similar story. A Rasmussen poll this week shows her with a 23% lead overall--an 8% improvement over their August numbers and 3% better than the RCP average of 20%. Rasmussen polling also shows Clinton’s lead growing in Florida.

Finally, in South Carolina an LA Times poll released just over a week ago shows her widening her margin to 18%.

And the events of this past week are likely to do nothing that will change this pattern.

The truth is probably that his wife simply made a Freudian slip since the situation is that dire.  Obama can't just continue to "hold his own". he has to start making inroads into Clinton's lead.  Instead, Clinton continues to solidify her position.

See these comments on why Iowa is in fact a "must win" situation (from Rasmussen Reports):

The Obama campaign team released a memo dismissing Clinton’s lead in the national polls and suggesting that the Obama team “has several structural advantages.”

Ultimately, the Obama campaign memo focuses on Iowa and confirms the analysis offered two weeks ago by Rasmussen Reports-- dislodging Clinton will require something to happen that makes Iowa a four-letter word in the Clinton household.

The memo makes three assertions about Iowa, one of which is indisputably true and two of which are speculative.

First, “caucuses are very difficult to poll.” This is true (and it’s the reason Rasmussen Reports has not yet polled for the Iowa caucus). While polling can give a reasonable sense of statewide sentiment or even sentiment among Democrats, caucuses don’t always reflect those sentiments. Very low turnouts, the importance of organization, and the unique nature of the caucus process make early projections difficult. In other words, nobody knows at this point what will happen in Iowa.

The memos other assertions attempt to portray Iowa as a must-win situation caucus for the frontrunner. It states that “Clinton will pay a severe price for not winning Iowa - national front runners always do.” Another comment is that the “importance of Iowa has only grown” as a tool for building momentum. Those points are certainly worth considering, but far from certain. Given the enormous coverage of the campaign, the reality of the Internet, and the frontloading of the primary schedule, you could make a convincing case for either side of the debate on the importance of Iowa in Election 2008.

As for Clinton, if she wins the Iowa caucus, there is nothing to stop her from getting the nomination. If she loses in Iowa, the caucus winner will have a brief moment to capitalize on the event and make his case. But, the Clinton campaign does possess something that none of her challengers can claim—a chance to win the nomination even if Iowa doesn’t work out as planned. She remains the most popular candidate among Democrats and is perceived to be the most electable. Clinton has a huge head start in New Hampshire and a solid demographic firewall due to her overwhelming support from women.

It is interesting that Obama has now adopted essentially the same tactical strategy as Mitt Romney is following in the GOP nominating contest-- win in the first real competition and hope that momentum will do the rest. And, that strategy confirms a reality that the Obama campaign memo forgot to mention… Iowa is a must-win state for the Senator from Illinois.

I am suprised that you guys dont know how to read between the lines ,Michelle is a very smart person .Think . you all are so misinformed by these public polls . What do you think she means when she said "if we win in iowa we can move to the world as it should be ." Because if they win in iowa then these people that are bought off by hillary will have to stop putting out these ridiculas polls . Remeber these guys have internal polling that are much more acurate with what is going on ,and i bet Obamas internal polling does not show a lead like the public polls for clinton . Stop being sheep ,look at what can not be minipulated , donors and funds . I hate it for you arrogant clinton supporters win she loses .

btw which debate did then msm pundits ever say that Obama won . although he was sick ( not an excuse ) no one wached this debate anyway. Check the ratings

oh yea i forgot ,OBAMA /WEBB 08

can someone post the obama web site so i can donate , my company has block my email and the other way i get to the site . maby i can get there from a link. thanks

I agree with Jamie, Elmwood Park, IL, now that I finally got to see the debate by going to YouTube. (Video wouldn't work on  MSNBC site, what's up with that?)I was not impressed with Hillary's performance.
I actually liked Obama better this time. He's growing on me. I think he is more honest than Hillary and less "Hamlet-like" than I was afraid he was. Hillary dropped several notches down, in my estimation. She's too Republican for my taste.

hey carrie , i see van still talkin , did he ever take me up on that bet though . I bet if we get him off there will be a lot less hostile debate.

I just got to share this . I know i am at work and should not be doing other things , But i work for a foutune 500 company ,needless to say it is about 98% white ,not that i may not be ,but i am sitting here trying to donate to obama but every way i try ,it gets blocked., so i tried to get to other candidates web site and i had no problem getting to all the other candidates web sites . Can anyone give me a rational explanation that is not racist before i explode. Better yet ,if anyone is in a similar situation can u try this and tell me the results . Thank you

ki houston  writes: but i am sitting here trying to donate to obama but every way i try ,it gets blocked.,


A suggestion.  Rather then give the money to a politican, give it to someone that needs help making their mortgage payment for the month.

l think Obama was great during the debate and he is a very genuine guy who wants to move us away from lies from politicians, who says one thing and when they are in power, they do the opposite.

Clintons thinks she is the president already, she would not even answer simply questions. she was trying to be wishy-washy and blind us all of her inner motives. she will bring nothing new to America and we will be where we are today or poosible worse off. l could give her onething for sure, she is a true politician (promises....lies...promises...lies) nothing will change.

I know Obama will win in iowa. He will not take cheap shots at Hilary because that is not the kind of person that he is, he is a unifier, a builder and most importantly he has sense of wisdom and good judgement. l really see this guy for who he is, you all should take the time to find out for yourself and you will see what l see in him.

Hilary "remember pride goes down before a fall". if you think you are already the president with your portray of your arrongance during the debate, then a shocker will await you in the tunnel!

And one more thing, why is the media trying to dent the imagine of Barack Obama And portray Hilary good? l thought this is a democratic government. Let people decide who they want instead of putting the (the media - CNN) person you want there in our face all the time. true and fair publicity for all candidates please!

Anyone who is a Hillary supporter, supports shallowness and a need for someone to take back the White House witha  vengeance after their sad saga ofa  life.  The clintons just need to GO AWAY...They've lied enough, and I don't care how much experience Obama has or does not have...They already lie enough, do you another liar, whether competent or ill-competent(bush), she's still a liar and will fool you better with her pretty words.  GET A CLUE OUT THERE.

If Hillary wins and Americans are that dumb to put her in office I think that I will have to leave and move to Europe.... She is a disaster and the thought of having BILL BACK IN the white house with nothing to do but wander the halls is downright scary!  Obama has NO EXPERIENCE and his wife is a total liability - she is unpolished, doesnt know anything about the issues and with his muslim ties there is NO WAY this country should put him in office.  So who the heck is left?  UGHHHHHHHHHHHHH  depressing!!!!

Well folks, dont take blue state baby's advise because, "Hillary IS going win." Sounds like a scholar with nobel advise to me.

We need new Flavor, no reheated soup pertaining to the Clinton's or Bush's.The media is hyping quotes to sound important. Obama is the Flavor,Muscle, Energy, and Change this Country needs in 08,regardless of who wins in  Iowa. I do hope that Michelle remembers that her husband is a candidate for all who choose him to support,with their vote, not just a shake up by a POLL which is only part of the dream. Comments regarding end results should be put on hold until the end...when the fat lady has danced, or sung the song. Let's think positive...Obama appears to have the makings of a president... Our next President in 08

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