First thoughts: 95 days and counting...
Posted: Monday, October 01, 2007 9:49 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
*** The first day of the rest…: Today is the first day of the 4th quarter of this campaign (did we EVER think we'd get to this point?). There's no more "it's early" excuses. In as few as 95 days, Iowans will get together and caucus. That's right, 95 days!?!?!? As for what to expect TODAY, we should get a clearer sense of where the campaigns stand regarding money. The Democratic race is status quo -- though the cash-on-hand totals will be of interest; Has Obama outspent Clinton to date and is that a good thing considering how Clinton has become more of an entrenched frontrunner since we last got money reports?
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on problems conservatives have finding a candidate plus the Iowa Democratic primary.
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Thompson’s first quarter: It's the GOP side of things where we're going to learn a lot. This is the first Fred Thompson quarter, and it appears his money isn't great; Compared to his current rivals, his $8-10 million seems competitive. But this is Thompson's FIRST quarter and comparing this $8-10 million to the first-quarter pulls of Giuliani, Romney and McCain, it's a relatively weak showing. But Thompson's not alone in raising a somewhat disappointing amount this quarter. Giuliani's total apparently isn't going to be great (see the finance firing last week) and Romney's having to contribute more of his own money and then there's McCain, whose money total is obviously lower than expected. Poor John Edwards, he'd be in the top tier in fundraising if he were in the GOP field, but instead he's had no choice but to take matching funds. Romney's obviously not taking matching funds, but what about Giuliani, Thompson and McCain?
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Frontrunners under fire: There appears to be a shift in the tone of coverage for both Clinton and Giuliani. For Clinton, one could sense this last week, particularly at the debate, when she was the one under the most fire. But that tough love continued over the weekend with lots of electability questions (check out the LAT's Rocky Mountain story and the anonymous Democrats quoted in it). As for Giuliani, the big news today, of course, is the third-party threat from Christian conservatives, most notably James Dobson. No potential candidate is floated but how Giuliani deals with this threat this week will tell us a lot about his ability to win this nomination.
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Poll position: The buzz of the weekend is the Newsweek poll showing all three Dems neck-n-neck-n-neck. The Obama folks are gloating over the fact they are leading among likely caucus goers, but Clinton isn't far behind (and leads among all Iowa Dems). The candidate hurt the most in this poll is Edwards. He's third among both likely caucus goers and all Dems. Two spins we're getting from EdwardsWorld: 1) The more polls show it close in Iowa, the more a victory will give them a boost; 2) Whenever national pollsters parachute into the state, they over-poll casual caucus goers, inflating the Clinton and Obama numbers. No matter, the buzz of dropping to third place isn't coming at a good time for Edwards, just days after he conceded he couldn't keep up with Clinton and Obama financially.
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All eyes on the Hawkeye State: By the way, Iowa party leaders are going to be under enormous pressure regarding whether to pick Jan. 3 or Jan. 5 for the caucuses. Candidates who are worried about losing Iowa (read: Clinton and Giuliani) prefer Jan. 5 (and a 3-day gap between Iowa and N.H.). Candidates who would like to take full advantage of the Iowa bump want Jan. 3 (read: Romney, Edwards and Obama).
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Who is Mitt Romney: the early state GOP frontrunner is the Newsweek cover boy. The article is not flattering, touching on his flip-flops, questioning some of his Massachusetts successes and spends a lot of time on whether his religion will be a primary problem. The "Romney-is-stuck" storyline seems to have some legs with various observers. The shift a few weeks ago to a campaign message that's focused on change has yet to take hold but it's only been a few weeks.
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Watching Freedom's Watch: Don't overlook the news that Freedom's Watch, the group of Republicans who have put millions together to support Bush's Iraq policy this fall, plans to raise some $200 million for the 2008 election. Will this make them the Republicans' ACT? Or Progress for America on steroids? A $200 million goal is jaw-dropping, but if it's done via soft money, then it's doable. Could Freedom's Watch be the group that ends up filling the gap in the spring when the GOP nominee (if it's NOT Romney) is out of money? By the way, Freedom's Watch has ducked real scrutiny (or fact-checking) on their ads to date but the higher profile they build, the more likely the scrutiny will come. They got fairly little grief for linking Iraq and 9/11 in their first TV ads.
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He won't leave: Larry Craig is still in the Senate. Just how aggressive will Senate GOPers get in trying to drive Craig out? Now that he's NOT followed through on his Sept. 30 resignation promise, it could become open season on him. Republicans are petrified of having Craig get a high profile during this battle. This is turning into a nightmare scenario for the party, which is struggling to keep its family values mantra.
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On the Trail: Biden speaks to county Democrats in South Carolina and holds a press conference in Columbia; Clinton lays out her “urban agenda” at a community college in Oakland; Giuliani campaigns in Cape May, NJ and Philadelphia; Obama campaigns in Columbus, SC and Tampa; Richardson raises money in New Mexico; Romney campaigns in Missouri; Thompson makes four stops in Iowa, including a coffee, a lunch, a walking tour of Iowa Falls and a meet and greet; and Bloomberg is in London, where the New York Mayor meets with the mayor of The Big Smoke.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 19 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 36 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 47 days
Countdown to Iowa: 105 days (or is it 95 days or 97 days or...)
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 110 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 127 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 400 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 477 days
