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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Oh-eight (D): Ha!

Posted: Wednesday, October 03, 2007 9:31 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

BIDEN: He has a new op-ed he co-writes with Leslie Gelb defending his proposed political solution that he takes pains NOT to call "partition."
 

CLINTON: Looking to prove inevitability this morning? Well, the new Washington Post/ABC poll is going to make a lot of folks in Ballston smile this morning. "For the first time, Clinton (N.Y.) is drawing support from a majority of Democrats -- and has opened up a lead of 33 percentage points over Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.). Her popularity, the poll suggests, is being driven by her strength on key issues and a growing perception among voters that she would best represent change. ... The new numbers come on the heels of an aggressive push by Clinton to dominate the political landscape. She unveiled her health-care proposal and then appeared on all five Sunday news shows on the same day -- all while her husband, former president Bill Clinton, went on tour to promote a new book. Within the past month, at least one Clinton has appeared on television virtually every day, increasing the campaign's exposure among millions of Americans."
 
"Support for Obama, now at 20 percent, has softened since early September and stands at its lowest point since he entered the race in February."
 
Speaking of polls, a new Quinnipiac poll in New York has Clinton topping Giuliani by double-digits, more proof that even Giuliani won't REALLY put NY in play. Now, NJ and PA (and maybe even CT?), that's another story. By the way, Giuliani is competitive in NY with Obama; the two are tied. 
 
The Hillary laugh is now getting "Gore-like Earth tones" coverage. Howie Kurtz adds to the mix today with an analysis. "The subtext here is that the media have collectively decided that the wife of the 42nd president is the inevitable nominee and a good bet to become the 44th Oval Office occupant. Lacking much of a horse race, since Clinton has maintained a 20-point national lead over Barack Obama all year, journalists are resorting to a classic general-election question: Are Americans ready to have this woman in their living rooms every night for four years? Are they comfortable with her personality? Do they like her voice? "
 
Poet Maya Angelou talks to the Des Moines Register to discuss her support for Clinton. 
 
Clinton does an online interview with Newsweek readers on its web site. A couple of highlights: Q: “Whether it’s fair or not, you and your husband are polarizing figures to many Americans. America needs some healing after all of the divisiveness of the last eight years. During the campaign and after, how will you convince the Clinton-haters that you can be a good president for all the people?” -- Cynthia, Denver
 
A: “Those were the things some people said about me when I first ran for the Senate. From my very first days in office, I worked hard to show people who I am, what I stand for, and what I can do. And I was extremely gratified to be re-elected with almost 67 percent of the vote -- and to win 90 percent of the counties that George Bush had carried just two years earlier.”
 
Q: “As the first woman president, what would you do differently from the men that have preceded you?” -- Dan, Ladera Ranch, Calif.
 
A: “Throughout this campaign thus far, I have been thrilled by the movement we are building. Fathers are driving long distances to bring their daughters to my events. Women in their 90s are telling me that they were born before women had the right to vote and that they want to live long enough to see a woman in the White House. When I am elected, we will have made history by working together.” 
 
What would a Clinton II White House be like?: In its Oct. 8 issue, New York Magazine’s Jennifer Senior takes a look at how a potential Hillary Clinton presidency might look differently from that of her husband. “So what’s it going to be? Will he stay out of her hair, traveling the world and working on his Nobel Peace Prize résumé? Or will he, having so much to contribute, also insist on an office in the West Wing and attend staff meetings, as she once did? And what will he do in the more delicate and complex scenarios, like legislative junctures that may affect her legacy: Will he use his muscle with members of Congress, meeting with them, charming them, taking them out for golf? ‘He’s always been a guy who could bloom where he’s planted,’ says Paul Begala, one of Clinton’s top advisers in his first presidential campaign. ‘Which is true, as we’ve all seen. But it’s up to Hillary to decide whether she wants him in the sun.’”
 
More: “From 1993 forward, she’s kept a separate and distinct staff --fanatically loyal, tight-lipped, mostly female -- making it hard to imagine how he’d fit comfortably into the West Wing. Their leadership styles and characterological differences couldn’t be more distinct: Hillary runs a tight ship and has little tolerance for wiftiness; where he’s inclined to meander, she’s inclined to drill down. She listens better than he does. Yet she’s warier of people than he is. She doesn’t believe that everyone’s susceptible to reason and gentle persuasion.” 
 
By the way, the cover of the issue shows what looks like an amalgamation of Bill and Hillary as a brunette with a pageboy flip and a red dress. The issue includes an irreverent – to say the least -- article by Ariel Levy on how Hillary changed the game forever for political wives. 
 
EDWARDS: Kos all but writes off Edwards because of his taking matching funds.
 
The Boston Globe’s Scott Lehigh doesn’t buy what he calls Edwards’ “hick schtick” for New Hampshire: “Hmmmm. From Fred Harris to Dick Gephardt to Tom Harkin to Bob Kerrey, populists, of conviction or convenience, have actually fared poorly here. Add to that the state's well-tuned authenticity meter, and you see why I suspect Edwards's hick shtick just won't click.

In Portsmouth, NH, Edwards will announce a new plan for managing security contractors in Iraq. As President, Edwards will fundamentally reform our system for security contractors by: (1) Establishing Strong Quality Control and Accountability Measures; (2) Implementing a Formal; (3) Evaluation of the Role of Contractors; (4) Removing Cronyism out of Security Contracts; (5) Expanding Legal Oversight and Prosecutions; (6) Reestablishing a Democratic Military.
 
Some speech excerpts: “A week ago Sunday, Hillary Clinton said that she would continue to conduct combat missions in Iraq. If you’re not ending combat operations, you’re not ending the war. My plan is very clear. I would get 40-50,000 troops out immediately and would withdraw all troops from Iraq within 9-10 months, with the exception of those left to guard the Embassy (no more than a brigade) and to possibly protect humanitarian workers. And I’d launch a diplomatic offensive to get all local, national, and regional parties behind the comprehensive political solution that will end the violence in Iraq. The debate I expect to have next fall with Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani or whoever’s the Republican nominee is whether or not to end this war. But the debate Senator Clinton would be in is how big a war you’re going to have. We should leave it to the Republicans to offer America four more years of George W. Bush’s mess of a war in Iraq. …
 
“Our party, the Democratic Party, has to offer the American people real change, and that starts with ending this war for good, not just trimming it. Because being just a little bit better than the Republicans is not reason enough to be the President of the United States.”
 
OBAMA: Obama delivered his fifth anniversary anti-war speech three times yesterday, in Iowa City, at DePaul University in Chicago and in Des Moines. "At each stop, Obama did not mention Clinton by name but took implicit aim at her claim that her vote in support of the war resolution was intended only to give President Bush more authority to seek weapons inspections in Iraq, and that she did not foresee how Bush would use it. ... So far, though, his campaign has struggled to capitalize on his war stance. Clinton has resisted apologizing for her vote and blurred her differences with Obama, who has generally voted similarly on Iraq-related measures since he joined the Senate in 2005. Polls show that Democratic voters who want the war to end prefer her to get that job done.
 
“The Clinton campaign dismissed Obama's criticisms as a rehash. ‘We believe voters are focused on the future and on ending the war in Iraq,’ said Clinton spokesman Phil Singer."
 
“Another candidate, Chris Dodd (Conn.), argued that Obama's charges contradicted his statement before the 2004 Democratic presidential convention that he did not fault John F. Kerry and John Edwards for their votes in favor of the war resolution because he did not know what intelligence they had access to."
 
The New York Times’ Zeleny writes, "It remains an open question whether Mr. Obama’s approach -- reprising the past to foreshadow the future -- will gain traction in the final three months of the year as voters pay more attention to the race, and help him turn what many Democrats had once viewed as Mrs. Clinton’s biggest vulnerability against her." 
 
NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli notes across New Hampshire Tuesday, Obama's campaign held events to draw attention to the anniversary of his '02 speech against the war in Iraq. Among them were viewing parties in 14 towns to watch a DVD documenting that speech and others since then, as well as stories of New Hampshire servicemen and women and their families.
 
In an interview, with the Concord Monitor, Obama said that all Dems' Iraq plans are "variations on the same theme." Obama: "Now that they've determined we need to bring an end to the war, there are only so many ways we can do it." So instead, he wants voters to focus on the judgment he showed before the war started. Obama: "It was the most important foreign policy decision in a generation, and who got it right and wrong is relevant in determining who's got the experience and judgment to move forward." 
 
And the Obama campaign is touting that the speech got front-page coverage with the Des Moines Register
 
Here’s an interesting observation from NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan. Sen obama was working out at the Iowa City gym this morning with Secret Service agents and his body man in tow. When I asked the two U of I students on the ellipticals on either side of me if they knew who that tall man was, they had no clue. But when she filled them in, they said, "Oh wow!"

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Comments

Juan:

After listening to Tom "top gun" Harkin and Harry "slug" Reid yesterday, I can tell pretty much who the liars are....

All we using information supplied to them by media matters, founded by Hillary Clinton.
Van - You interpret my analysis above of the Democratic race as a signal of an anti-Clinton bias, but it is just a recitation of polls and history with no shots taken at any candidates.  It is simply a fact that nine times out of ten, non-incumbent national frontrunners lose the Democratic nomination, and yet every time the news media tells the story as if they have amnesia.  I have to admit, I fell for it myself with Howard Dean in 2004, but I don't intend to fall for it twice whether I agree with the particular candidate's views or not; Dean led in the national polls for months and put his sizeable warchest into consolidating that national lead, as opposed to his main financial rival John Kerry, who despite trailing in the polls by double digits, focused his money on early states like Iowa.  Sound familiar?
Are there no republicans running for president?If there are why is there noconversation of support for at least one?I do read about Ron Paul---like him but would not vote for him---but golly gee are there no republicans on this site?They should be touting their white guy that is running as fast as they can.
Did they really just use the last name Clinton in the poll?  Well this is as about as bogus a poll as you can get.  talk about losing credibility if they did.

I can believe most democrats might say Bill Clinton but I can't believe it if it is Hillary.  Now this is reall trying to rig the game if they did that
jerry, Media Matters was founded by David Brock in 2004.  While Brock and many others involved in the creation of Media Matters have close ties to Hillary Clinton, and Hillary Clinton was an advisor to Media Matters, it is not true that Media Matters was "founded by Hillary Clinton", as you have stated eight or nine times on today's posts (four times in one post above).

You might think this to be a slight distinction, but it makes the difference between a true statement and a false statement.  Of course, the difference between true and false matters nothing to your heroes Limbaugh, Hannity, ad nauseum, and you have adopted their tactic of repeating it over and over in hopes it will be believed.

Today, like in the past, all of your comments are scripted by what is currently being spewed by these right wing talk show people.  The talking point du jour is worked into every comment on every subject, regardless of relevance to the topic at hand.
Bee (Sent Wednesday, October 03, 2007 11:06 AM)

The polls are meaningless and I'm full of crap. Thanks for the analysis and forgive me if I again comment on your atrocious grammar.

Where did you do your graduate work in statistical analysis? Would you like to post your dissertation? Like several others here, you seem to know so much about polling that you must have some background in the field. You can argue with a single poll, but there are dozens that mirror the results of this one.

I don't think you are full of crap, just upset that things aren't going your way and lashing out in your frustration. That's not going to change, and it's not my fault.

Van
No, it doesn't sound familiar. Shadow, you are rooting too hard against Hillary in all of your posts to pretend that you aren't actively against her here.

Dean was a chimera and his support was soft, Clinton is among the best known people in the country and her support, as evidenced by every measure available, is STRONG. Hillary could lose a few primaries and still easily take the nomination, as her supporters won't flock to Edwards if he takes Iowa.

Do you see Edwards winning in Florida based on a win in Iowa? You would be alone in that vision. The Dean argument is much more applicable to senator Obama, who is a relative unknown with soft support, by those same measures. A third place finish in Iowa could end his candidacy (even his own camp alludes to this.), whereas a (highly unlikely) third place finish for Clinton would be nothing more than a bump in the road.

Despite you protestations, the anti-Clinton slant to your posts does indicate that, even if you do not claim a preference, you are not exactly impartial in your assessments.

Van
You are awesome Van, keep it up! Lots and lots of very angry frustrated republicans, huh?
Jerry stop pretending your straight, we know you are not at this point.
Scott in South texas:

Obviously you have not watching the news lately:

At the DailyKOS convention, Hillary Clinton told the crowd that she is the founder of Media Matters.  It is available on youtube, people having been playing video and audio of her saying this all week.

Are you saying that Hillary Clinton is a Liar?
Just like Tom Harkin?
Then her and Harkin need to run as a team.....
They can be known as LIAR LIAR.
"As the primaries approach, Democrats will start to realize that Bill Clinton NEVER RECEIVED A MAJORITY OF VOTES IN HIS PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS!!"

For the record, neither did Bush in 2000, and that didn't prevent him from being appointed anyway.

"Clintons again set America up. The have such a track record to be involved with scandal at every turn... A DUMB puppet behind his coat tail.... Perverted?  made a mockey of the Oval Office..."

Substitute the above "Clintons" w/ "Bush" and "his" w/ "Cheney" and you have the last six years - only many times multiplied - and w/o the benefit of a great economy w/ no kids dying for imagined causes in the meantime.

"Newt Gingrich could not run for President and be the head of his organization at the same time."

Newt Gingrinch could not run for president because no one thinks he's worth raising $30 million in one year, let alone the one month he expected and the little fact that he has more skeletons in his closet than all the present dem and repub contenders put together!
HMT-MI (Sent Wednesday, October 03, 2007 11:24 AM)

I have also wondered why there are so few Republicans touting the virtues of their candidates. I think it is in the nature of the right wingers to criticize and tear down rather than praise and build-up. It is easier for sure.  Any fool can make war, destroy countries and break the government so it doesn't work.  It takes effort and intelligence to secure peace, prosperity and make the government work for the people.
Hey DAVE- That's funny calling me an Uncle Tom considering I am a white Hispanic and German. You must be confusing me with your buddy Clarence Thomas. You Idiot Right Wing Fascist Jerk  
Hillary is running a great campaign.  She is using Bill very well.  How many times have you seen him holding a black child?  

She published her contribution numbers on the day that Obama was rolling out a new campaign in Iowa and stole his thunder.  She has Obama where she wants him - holding back all the candidates while they self-destruct or are ignored.  

It doesn't matter whether she is liked, is honest, is open - she knows what she is doing and she knows how to win.
Van - I don't claim to be an impartial journalist; I'm a citizen and a voter who bases my views on what I've observed.  However, there's a big difference between that and someone who is actively shilling for or against a particular candidate, which is what you're accusing me of doing.  I again refer you to the politico comment I posted on Ben Smith's blog where I argued with him in defense of Hillary Clinton's comments about Hispanics.  It is true I don't think she is the best candidate for the nomination for a number of valid reasons, but I don't think she should be treated unfairly either, because I don't think ANYONE should be treated unfairly; it's bad for the process.  I will continue to demand fair coverage of all the candidates, and if you read the posts I have written, you will not find a single lie or distortion that I use to denigrate any candidate.
Shadow, Hamden, CT


You're right to take notice that Hillary is the only candidate in the Newsweek poll whose support drops when the poll sample is narrowed from registered democrat to "likely caucus goer". It drops 22.5%  (from 31% to 24%)

The subset of "likely caucus goers" is statistically flawed and invalid, because it relies 100% on participant self reporting, which prevents it from being a statistically valid sample/poll. Princeton Survey research recognized the poll sample problem by increasing its + or - margin of error from 5 among all Dem's to 7 among "likely caucus goers"

In any event, while the poll is meaningless regarding the candidates actual level of support, the fact that Clinton's support drops 22.5% among self identified "likely caucus goers", and all other candidates support increases or remains the same when the poll is narrowed to this group indicates Clinton has a problem  in Iowa. This is not news to her campaign.
Dave said "why do I want every kid no matter what color they are to have government money attached to them so they can pick the school they want?"

I've no idea why you want it since I can't read minds but I do know many people who want it so they can put their kids in private/parochial schools to keep their kids from mixing with "undesireables" of other races and religious beliefs.
The polls are what people that read them, want them to be. Oh my, it looks like Mrs Clinton is waaayy ahead. Guess that means she kicking ass on election day. Go Hillary!
Shadow-

I will read your posts in hopes that your contention is true. Perhaps as an open Clinton supporter, I have mis-read your attempts to provide the balance you claim and lumped them together with the majority of Clinton bashing that makes up this board.


Van
Gary, Des Moines, - That is funny. And we know they had to be U of I college student's, because they were young and in Iowa City, and of course all young people in Iowa City attend U of I (even though there is also a community college with a Iowa City campus, and people who merely live and work there). And no one other than students or alum wear Hawkeye clothes. So the Iowa/Hawkeye t-shirt gave them away.
jerry - highly doubt that you won any debate over any individual.  You are so obvious in the way that you are fearful of even answering questions.  Your 'attack the messenger' style is very pathetic.

I was not entirely sure, but were you trying to get us to remember that Hillary founded media matters?  Such a simpleton.

jerry the plant.
By the way, dishonest jerry, Hillary is not the founder of Media Matters - David Brock is.

Amazing how dishonest you are.  And, in most posts today, you tied media matters to Hillary by claiming her to be the founder.  Just like other R tactics - repeat it enough, and others will begin to believe it (along the lines of the much repeated BS on Iraq being associated with 9/11).

jerry is a plant.
Cuban/German/Socialist and you're calling me a fascist? Now that's funny :-)
Thank you, Van, I appreciate it.

I honestly do believe in standing up to all cheap shots (even against neocon candidates I despise - despite the taste it leaves in my mouth) because otherwise, I will have absolutely no right to complain in the future when I pick a candidate to endorse and they get cheap shotted.
What worries republicans is that many of those elderly women who want to see a woman in the white house may be republicans. Maybe they should have run Condi.
BionicWoman, Tucson, Arizona declares /

'It doesn't matter whether she is liked, is honest, is open - she knows what she is doing and she knows how to win.'

if she is not liked, is dishonest, and is secretive,
why on earth do you think she should be president?

could it be that the only reason you have is her possession of a vagina?

me thinks so, how pathetic
So glad you devoted so much space to Sen. Biden's  editorial in the Washington Post.

"BIDEN: He has a new op-ed he co-writes with Leslie Gelb defending his proposed political solution that he takes pains NOT to call "partition."

I'm thrilled you were able to devote 24 words, one complete sentence to an issue far more important than the paragraph upon paragraph devoted to your analysis of the horse race.

Why does Biden take pains NOT to call his and Gelb's Iraq plan a partition? Could it be because despite the fact that the plan he and Leslie Gelb first publicly released almost a year and a half ago, clear states it is a federal form of government (which the Iraq constitution calls for)with strong local control, and it's not a plan to split up, or partition Iraq into three separate countries, most of the media refers to the Biden-Gelb plan as a partition plan. At each debate, and every interview I've seen Sen. Biden corrects the partition reference, but unfortunately old habits die hard, and most in the media still misrepresent the plan. Maybe instead of devoting 24 words to the Washington Post editorial, and doing so in a snarky manner, and putting your sentence in with 14 paragraphs devoted to Hillary, and a few more to Obama, and Edwards and Dodd. You could read the full plan, read the editorial, and then report on it factual. Who knows, just maybe there might be a meaningful discussion on something that really is important. At least something a bit more important than what Hillary is wearing on the cover of New York magazine, or the Clinton laugh.....
Dave- you think fascism is related to Italy and/or Germany WW2. Go look it up in the dictionary or take a course in civic class.
BionicWoman "It doesn't matter whether she is liked, is honest, is open - she knows what she is doing and she knows how to win."

Actually it does in the general, almost always the candidate who most general election voters would prefer to have a beer with (sorry Mitt- you're out) wins the general election. It is a sad commentary on the electorate, but the winner of the general election almost always is the one who polled highest on this issue. So yes BionicWoman the fact that before the general election has started close to 50 % of the country don't like her, and a candidate's unfavorable number has never shrunk in the general (both nominees unfavorables go up during the general)Hillary's unfavorable is almost certain to exceed 50% by November 08, which is why the GOP wants her to be our nominee. Close your eyes to reality, but reality won't change merely because you refuse to face it.

Van – Thanks for all your valid points and arguments.  Nice to see someone with common sense and logic posting on this site.  

And what a day it’s been – the Clinton haters are out in full force all agitated that Hillary drew a crowd of 14,000 in Oakland, CA,  raised more money than Obama for the third quarter and now leads the Dem field by an amazing 33%.

Sierra must be on suicide watch!
So I am to believe that 53 out of every 100 Democrats want any candidate, in particular Hillary Clinton, to be our Democratic Presidential nominee with a field as deep and as qualified as this? Thank God I went and got me an education because if I relied on the media for guidance, I'd be dead. Later Ya'll.
H.R. Clinton is so inevitable to become the 44th president of the United States, her supporters don't even need to vote!
Van, newsflash, the election is not being held today.

Didn't the "polls" say Kerry would win?  Including exit polls the DAY of the election?  Now, I'd love to say Bushie cheated, and maybe he did, but all that noise certainly made me question the validity of the polls.  Not to mention, their usefulness.

Do you really think a 1,000 person sample is that much better than 500?  And I must say, in that you post on EVERY thread ALL DAY LONG, it sure does seem like you're being paid by someone to do so.  I'd love to know what you actually do for a living that gives you so much free time!

Why the animosity, anyway, when your gal is in the lead?  You should take some time off, you deserve it!



squintz, philly, pa (Sent Wednesday, October 03, 2007 2:02 PM)

Thanks for the advice. You must be very busy too.


Van
Jerry's comments are clearly being made for one reason and one reason only - he's lonely. He needs attention. So he spends all day with one hand on his computer and the other on his ...oh no, there goes lunch!
Howard Dean lead John Kerry in New Hampshire in an October 24, 2003 Zogby Poll 40%-17%. On Primary Day Kerry "waxxed dat arse" 39%-26% and we all know what happened from that point on. Now I know that Hillary ain't Howie, but my point is a 36 point swing occured over 1 90 day period. I just laugh at how folks buy into all these polls when the voting country aren't really paying attention to the election like they will come the beginning of the year. Oh well. We'll See.
Van knows that these polls are meaningless at this point in time but will continue to tout them as they are the only thing that he can refer when spouting Hillary's virtues (which are few at this time).  Howard Fineman's article yesterday said that only 17% of NH voters are sure about their choice.  Obama leads in Iowa among likely caucus attendees (although truly assessing a poll in a caucus state like Iowa is difficult because of the how they allot their 3000 delegates - it's really an incredible process that tries to assess trends in voter patterns and the state-wide appeal of candidates-those famers are pretty intellegent).

The Hillary of the 1970's, who Van loves, has long departed, having sold out to special interests and to the triangulation politics of Dick Morris.  What idealism she once held was brutally damaged by her life's trials (in no small part due to her association with the former president). Her supposed great experience (at least to me) hasn't yielded a product worth bragging about since the vote on the war and subsequent actions are acts of which to be ashamed.

And Van he is a charicature of what I resent about the Clinton sense of entitlement.  If you don't agree with them, they try to take away your credentials for having any right to speak.  It's no different than the present Bush/Rove (ah the latter's spirit still lurks) aura that basically practices that if you can't beat them honestly, try to destroy them by every means at your disposal.

Which is why (I have to end these rants with a plug for my candidate) I support Obama.  He does want to turn the page and raise the level of discourse to something more than pigs rolling in the mud.  On top of that he is honest and exhibits great judgment.  I would be proud to have him as my president because he manifests a compelling story and has kept true to his principles.  Finally, I'll end with what Chris Matthews said on WNYC this AM, "I'd love it if Obama would win." (although he thinks it'll be a long shot).  Me?, I don't think it's such a long shot.  I think as the people get beyond the name recognition level (as they have been in Iowa) they will speak against the status quo and Obama will lead the new American political movement.
Obama '08
Van,

I'll sugest you go back to school and take a statistics class. Obviously, you have no clue about the polls you keep touting. If you so much believe in the polls, what is the degreee of it's reliability.

If you can answer this question, then i'll pay attention to your post.

I can point to 1000 reasons why these poll numbers are not reliable. What is the number of people that were polled? Do they poll the same person over and over again? Why can't the media release the full report of the survey? I need detail not just percentage. I know i cannot be fool by the washington media that on the pay roll of the Clintons.

These polls are too shady.
Van,

I'll sugest you go back to school and take a statistics class. Obviously, you have no clue about the polls you keep touting. If you so much believe in the polls, what is the degreee of it's reliability.

If you can answer this question, then i'll pay attention to your post.

I can point to 1000 reasons why these poll numbers are not reliable. What is the number of people that were polled? Do they poll the same person over and over again? Why can't the media release the full report of the survey? I need detail not just percentage. I know i cannot be fool by the washington media that on the pay roll of the Clintons.

These polls are too shady.
Socialist trying to build a Utopian Society through the force of government, and taking control of all Industry. Sounds like American Liberals to me. Hell you even got the "Jews are to blame" thing going for you. Let's not forget who used a military tank to kill Americans :-)
STUPID DEMOCRPS!!  The Repubs are going to smear her beyond sanity and she's going to LOSE!!!  Doesn't anyone get that?!?
Biden should partition Delaware and see how his liberal constituents like it. Idiot!
Kristian O

The poll numbers in Iowa were even more off. On 11/9/03 Kerry was in 4th, the only poll that had him ahead prior to the caucus was the Registers 1/17/04 poll, two days before the caucus. That poll had Kerry at 26% Edwards at 23% Dean at 20% and Gephardt at 18%. During the Sunday talk shows the Washington experts considered the Register poll a  fluke, and still believed Iowa was between Dean and Gephardt. The Register poll was correct regarding the order of caucus winners, but because it was of random registered Democrats, and not of verified caucus goers ( a very small subset of registered Democrats), the candidate percents were still way off. Kerry won Iowa with 37.6%, Edwards was at 31.9%, Dean was close to his pre-caucus poll amount at 18%, and Gephardt received 10.6%.

On Dec. 18th Professor Squire, of Univ. of Iowa is quoted as saying that he has seen no evidence of Kerry increasing his support, and that there is no reason to think undecided would break towards one candidate. Those of us that were on the ground were seeing the surge.

As late as the USA Today poll released on 1/16/04 Kerry was in 3rd place (behind Dean and Edwards, and just 1% above Gephardt). Zogby's January 10th 2004 poll. 9 days before the caucus had Kerry at 15% and Dean at 25% (and Gephardt at 23%).


All these polling companies conduct fine general and primary election polls, because these polls lend them to a scientifically valid poll. But because caucus polling relies on the participants response regarding the likelihood of caucus attendance, because the polling companies don't have access to the caucus attendance lists, caucus polling is notoriously poor.

What is amazing is that the media hasn't leaned from their embarrassment in 04.
Van - Ha ha, how right you are, my friend.  Please, continue to enlighten us with your brilliant posts.  We're not worthy.

Now, if you'll excuse me, I need to go home and watch the Phils lose.  Do you post this much after 5 or do you have something else to do with your time?  

Dave, Tn proclaims / 'Socialist trying to build a Utopian Society through the force of government, and taking control of all Industry. Sounds like American Liberals to me.'

the system of government you are trying to portray as somehow negative is indeed utopian when compared to the uncontrolled capitalism being endured by american citizens currently

and you my friend are not intelligent enough to recognize that

isn't it time for your daily polishing of the regan bust prominently displayed above your fireplace?
IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE, MSNBC, HOW MUCH YOU LEFF-WINGED-NIT-WITTED-NEW-AGE-LIBERAL-LOONIES SAY ABOUT SENATOR FRED DALTON THOMPSON...HE IS THE BEST CHOICE OUT THERE FOR POTUS, NO DOUBT ABOUT IT!!! YOU HAVE A BLUE GUM MUSLIM AND A PSYCHOTIC ARKANSAS RAZORBACK WHO HAS A NYMPHOHUBBY - YOUR CHOICES ARE THE ABSOLUTE WORST EVER!!! YOU SNUB YOUR LOW-CLASS NOSES AT DECENCY AND HAVE NOT PLANS - ALL YOU WANT IS IN!!! YOU ARE ALL LOSERS AND DIM-WITTED DUMMY-DEMONCRITICS!!!
Dave in TN, Uncle Tom is a derogatory term direted towards African Americans based on a character from Harriet Beecher Stowe's book Uncle Tom's Cabin. If you knew anything about popular culture and American literature, you would have known that. This shows how truly ignorant you are.

By the way, it is spelled lackey. Try a spelling course also.
People, I give you JV Byars, our republican of the month.  This is the kind of people that gave us george w bush, twice.
Van,

I'll sugest you go back to school and take a statistics class.

If you can answer this question, then i'll pay attention to your post.
(note to Bee: your response to my post is a clear indicator that you paid attention to it.)


It is so gratifying to be offered advice and help from so many kind souls. I hope I can offer something, in the way of comfort and sympathy, in return in January and February.

You can curse the polls. You can curse at me FOR the polls.  You can demand to see the construction, meet those who were polled and those who did the polling. You can say that the polls don't matter.You can even say that they only count when YOU say they do.

The only thing you can't do is change them because you don't like what they say. And let's be honest, that's what you really want to do, explain them away.

I will keep posting them and you will continue to try to minimize them and explain them away.
Before you know it, it will be time for the primaries.
There will be a lot less of this kind of talk then.

There's this early Elvis Presley greatest hits compilation called, "50,000,000 Elvis fans can't be wrong".
One poll can be wrong. Two or three polls can be wrong. Hundreds of polls, on the state and national level, taken over the course of months and updated periodically, can't all be wrong.
It's been over 30 years since I studied statistics, so I may be a little rusty on the fine points, but I don't think that ALL the polls can be wrong, and I don't think the people who are desperately trying to deny them do either.
Why do we even bother to have these elections?  The media can just take their polls and tell us who they think is the winner.

In fact, why not just have a national call-in television show where each candidate (candidate being anyone who can pay the media company hosting the show enough money in advertising fees) can give a 2 minute speech (plenty of time to determine who should lead the most powerful nation on the planet) and we can all call in and cast our vote.  Be sure to factor in who is the best dressed!  Oh, and call as often as you like!

We voted like morons in the last two elections and we got what we deserved.

So, feel free to continue calling each other names and concluding that whoever has the most money MUST be the best candidate.  Whoever the media tells you is going to win surely deserves your vote.  Keep telling yourself that.  And enjoy what you get.



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