First thoughts: Clinton catching on
Posted: Wednesday, October 03, 2007 9:37 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro***
Clinton catching on: Perhaps the more remarkable number out of the Clinton camp yesterday wasn't the $22 million they raised, but the 100K new donors. When this campaign began, the Clinton camp was focused on high-dollar givers and that created a ceiling for them the first two quarters. But they ripped a page from the Obama fundraising playbook in Q3 and targeted smaller donors. The most successful campaigns adopt their opponents’ best attributes.
***
Hey, I said it first! Speaking of stealing good ideas, no one is more frustrated by this phenomenon than John Edwards. Yesterday, the campaign took pains to point out that they signed on to the nuclear plan Obama touted yesterday last month. Of course, after Clinton unveiled her health care plan, the Edwards camp enjoyed pointing out that "imitation was the sincerest form of flattery." But Edwards is learning the hard way that voters don't reward the candidate who comes out with plans first, but rewards the candidate who puts it all together best.
***
Edwards’ tipping point? By the way, say what you want about the importance of the blogosphere, but no campaign cares more than Edwards. Well, the campaign was dealt a tremendous rhetorical blow by the king of the liberal blogosphere, Markos Moulitsas, who panned Edwards' decision to apply for matching funds. Kos didn't pen a campaign obit, but he certainly gave his readers an impression that he's all but written off Edwards' chances (beyond incredibly lucky breaks). This was always the danger of the Edwards decision to decide to apply for matching funds, it would serve as a tipping point for some to begin re-examining Edwards' chances and whether he still belongs in the so-called First Tier.
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers first read on Obama's attempts to prove experience.
***
The world may be, but the speech isn't supposed to be: As for Obama's speech, anyone else believe it fell a little flat? It didn't get near the attention, perhaps, than the campaign hoped for. The speech read well and struck us as a great spring speech to the Council of Foreign Relations. But was it a political speech that forced his chief opponent to go on the defensive? Obama never mentioned Clinton by name. In June, that would be expected, but in October?
***
10,000 to 0… Does it matter? Yesterday, a stat jumped out at us that was just flooring. According to TNS Media Intelligence/CMAG, Mitt Romney has run more than 10,000 TV ads (counting each spot individually) while Rudy Giuliani has run, wait for it, zero. How uplifting to Giuliani and demoralizing to Romney is it that Giuliani's numbers have moved north and Romney's south in New Hampshire despite the TV imbalance in Romney's favor. Still, what this also tells us is that Giuliani is running a very effective mail and phone campaign (particularly in N.H.) that many of us are probably not noticing. Still, 10,000 ads to 0... Phew.
***
’94 nostalgia: Be on the lookout for a new theme in the GOP primary: where were you in 1994? There are a few campaign oppo talking points making the rounds, one set questions whether Thompson was truly a Gingrich-like revolutionary and the other set compares Thompson's conservatism in '94 to Rudy and Romney in '94. Of course, neither Romney nor Rudy could call themselves Gingrich revolutionaries either, in fact, one could argue Fred's circa '94 conservatism looks good compared to Rudy (who endorsed Mario Cuomo in '94) and Romney (who was running to the left of Kennedy on gay rights). Then again, if none of the three are seen as true-blue '94 revolutionaries, doesn't that end up helping the current frontrunner more than, say, Thompson? We'll see, it'll be up to GOP primary voters to decide how much the past matters.
***
On the trail: Biden and Clinton participate in the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Institute Presidential Candidate forum in DC; Biden then campaigns in Iowa; Edwards attends the Seacoast Media Group Forum on Iraq; Giuliani makes five stops in New Hampshire, including the Red Arrow Diner and a town hall; McCain makes three stops in South Carolina, including speaking at the College of Charleston's Bully Pulpit Series on Presidential Communication, to the Camden Military Academy and the South Carolina State University ROTC; Obama holds two town halls in Iowa focused on foreign policy; Richardson raises money in DC; Romney is in Massachusetts; and Thompson makes two stops in Iowa.
Countdown to LA GOV election: 17 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 34 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 45 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 97 days
Countdown to Iowa: 93 days or 95 days or...
Countdown to Michigan: 104 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 108 days
Countdown to Florida: 118 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 125 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 398 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 475 days
