First thoughts: Fred's debut

Posted: Monday, October 08, 2007 9:33 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro

*** Fred's debut: All eyes are on Fred Thompson this week as he makes his debate debut at the CNBC/MSNBC/The Wall Street Journal debate on Tuesday from Dearborn, Michigan. It is the first Republican Presidential debate of the 2008 campaign focusing on economic issues, and will be broadcast live on CNBC at 4 PM ET, live streamed on msnbc.com, and re-broadcast on MSNBC at 9 PM ET. CNBC's Maria Bartiromo and MSNBC's Chris Matthews will host the debate. So how much detail will he have at his fingertips? Will he show real enthusiasm for winning? Perhaps the best thing to happen to Thompson was the "SNL" parody, which helps lower expectations even more. And the "SNL" parody served as a guide as to what NOT to do, and what not to say; what stereotype traps NOT to fall into. Here's a good question for the Thompson campaign, did they have the candidate watch the parody?

*** Edwards’ last stand: What is it about politicians on the brink that bring out their potential best? Edwards is getting very comfortable becoming the chief Clinton attacker on the stump. Does this help him or Obama, though, in Iowa? Remember, in '04, when one-time Iowa frontrunner Dick Gephardt started getting more strident on the stump (and attacking the then-frontrunner Howard Dean)? Both went down. This is certainly the scenario Obama is counting on. But for Edwards, he doesn't have much choice. Since, as he notes, he's yet to run a sustained TV campaign in Iowa, he needs to garner as much free media as he can. By the Way, check out his electability argument against Clinton. It was one of his strongest moments on "Meet" Sunday. Watch Obama borrow that language.

*** New Year's in Iowa! State Republican leaders met via conference call last Friday night and agreed to "recommend" Jan. 3rd as their caucus date. Democrats have not picked a date yet, but Democratic sources say that -- contrary to rumors flying around last week -- the two parties are unlikely to split their caucuses over two different nights. So there ya have it folks, Iowa will be Jan. 3 (probably announced the week of Oct. 15 in a bipartisan way if it gets negotiated in time). It may have been necessary for Iowa to hurry up and grab a date before New Hampshire's Bill Gardner decided to snatch either the 3rd or the 5th. Now, N.H. either goes the 8th or leapfrogs to December.

*** Speaking of Iowa, there's no poll that gets (and deserves) more attention than the Des Moines Register poll by ace Iowa pollster Ann Selzer. The bottom line: Clinton's surging; Edwards is slipping; and Obama's stalling. Clinton appears to be benefiting from her gender and from her concerted effort to woo older Iowans. On the GOP side, the big buzz is for Fred Thompson's second-place showing (does he have the organization to sustain that?) and Huckabee's third-place finish, just ahead of Giuliani. For Romney, his campaign is probably hoping Thompson's showing is enough to lure the new candidate into seriously contesting the state. By the way, don't miss the collective media C.W. all starting to treat Iowa as make-or-break for the Democratic side while holding off on making that claim for the GOP side. Over the weekend, Clinton was challenged by an Iowan on Iran. Look for more campaign trail confrontations for the candidates now that things are getting even tighter and more (desperate?) for some of Clinton's foes.

*** Rudy's ambition: Today is a big deal for Italian-Americans and the New York Daily News uses Columbus Day as a backdrop to look at how Giuliani is tapping into Italian-Americans for his campaign. Perhaps the best scoop in the Daily News piece: Giuliani first began thinking about running for president in 1963. Okay, "thinking" is a bit of a stretch but it's one of those "moments" we in the media love to find out about in our presidents. Remember, we LIKE our presidents to have ambition. By the way, Columbus Day (parade and all) coupled with the Yankees comeback win last night sure makes for an interesting day in NYC.

*** Quick hitters: Future of the GOP stories are starting to hit critical mass; Goldwater HBO doc will add fuel ... Is Al Gore campaigning for a Nobel Prize? And if he adds a Nobel to his Oscar- and Emmy-heavy resume this Friday, will Obama-weary anti-Clinton Democrats renew their draft calls? ... The upcoming joint Biden-Brownback Iowa event has us wondering why other second-tier candidates haven’t paired up in a bipartisan way. Imagine how excited the Davids (Broder and Yepsen) would be if Huckabee and Biden did a Lincoln-Douglas schtick across Iowa? ... The Los Angeles Times has a great "how's-she's-done-it" piece on Clinton ... Has Richardson's new anti-war track hurt him in South Carolina? At least with one supporter. ... By the way, will Obama ever travel to South Carolina and not talk about faith?

***On the trail: Biden continues to campaign in Iowa with five stops, including four meet and greets and a house party; Brownback campaigns in his home state of Kansas; Clinton makes four stops in Iowa, including a speech on economic prosperity and three organizational rallies; Dodd makes five stops in Iowa, including two community forums; Edwards makes three stops in Iowa; Hunter is in Michigan at the North Oakland Republican Club Presidential Forum; Obama speaks on energy in New Hampshire; Elizabeth Edwards has four stops in New Hampshire where she discusses health care.

Countdown to MA-05 special election: 19 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 12 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 29 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 40 days
Countdown to Iowa: 87days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 92 days
Countdown to Michigan: 99 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 103 days
Countdown to Florida: 113 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 120 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 393 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 470 days

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Comments

Sierra - Obama couldn't guarantee he would have us out of Iraq in 2013 either. But I guess it looks better to just leave that out, right?

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:21 PM)

I think it's still a 3way tie.

sonya, atlanta, ga (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:02 PM)

I think the Mets can still make the series...

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:21 PM)

hillary wants to give every child $ for college or to help buy a house all the repubs want to send every child to die in a religious war, which one to choose?

??? (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:24 PM)

hillary wants to give every child $ for college or to help buy a house all the repubs want to send every child to die in a religious war, which one to choose?

??? (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:24 PM)

Sierra, you are sooo borrriiinnggg. Your wife must be bored to tears.

G (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:24 PM)

Hey keep writing facts Van, you are the greatest. Don't take these anti Clinton nutcases seriously. Keep up with the truth and the facts. They cannot handle the truth. When Hillary wins we will be celebrating.

Susan, Miami (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:27 PM)

Doug in San Diego:

If America was so smart, why did they elect Nixon for McGovern......

McGovern would have gotten us out of Vietman......
Has Hillary made the pledge lately about Iraq?

Think you better read up on that liberal moron, he and Walter Mondale just better stay on the sidelines for this one.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:30 PM)

Hillary will win in 08 and Sierra will have a nervous breakdown. BOOOHoooo.

bb (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:30 PM)

I like what Mr.Van has to say and I encourage him to continue. The more they shriek against the Clintons, the more I want her to win. The little woman has got more common sense and intelligence than all the republican candidates put together.

F StLouis (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:34 PM)

we's all think hillary is strong and tough and smart just like us all here , cuse hilary has a vagina jus like us here. hillary scares men too. Go Hillary, Go!

Bionic Beavers (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:34 PM)

Just read that Britain is removing half of its troops soon. So much for the coalition of the willing. Our president is a horrid joke.

bb (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:36 PM)

Susan/Miami:

Better come over to our team and get the victory....
at least your vote will count!

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:41 PM)

I'm wondering, ""VAN" You like Hillary are misleading in the subject matter,,,more like twisting subject matter to be self serving. Just maybe you have a big tree in your back yard Hillary and you can use!!!

P.S. """STFU"""

Hard Truth //AZ (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 11:47 AM)

You censored my highlighting this and saying that if MSNBC ever gets a moderator who can read and write English, that the above is the type of post that should be flagged.
I posted it and you took it DOWN after you printed it!
For shame! How sad, MSNBC!

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:43 PM)

From the above photos, it looks like they are listening to the same song. My guess would be, "Like a Virgin" by Madonna.

Steve Turner Cedar Falls Iowa (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:44 PM)

See that pic of Fred at the top of this article....caption should read..."I wish someone had briefed me on this Soviet Union thing..."

PJ (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:44 PM)

I can't believe that MSNBC would censor a post about their inability to moderate their own page, but they did.

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:45 PM)

Carrie, Eastern Iowa: '...Sierra - Obama couldn't guarantee he would have us out of Iraq in 2013 either. But I guess it looks better to just leave that out, right?...'

No, Carrie I'm NOT PLEASED with Obama's or Edwards statements on that subject, either.

I am amsued with your response....
It's OK for Hillary to say it, if Obama sayid it, too !!
Aren't you a little concerned with these statements ?
Don't you expect more from our party ?
2013 ?
We should be out in a YEAR !!
Does this matter at all to you ?
Or do you just want to elect your candidate ?

What about the Iran vote ?
Does THAT bother you ?

Sierra, SF (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:45 PM)

Susan, Miami is already on the winning side!

Blue state baby (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:46 PM)

While the Bozos are dissing the current candidates, has it occured to anyone else that maybe Bush is not a former alcoholic, but a current alcholic?

That would explain the stupdity of some of his "decider" decisions and his inability to accept both reality and responsibility for his mistakes.

And maybe explain some of his speeches.

Jim Allen, Atlanta GA (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:48 PM)

I think I finally understand the rationale for the color-scheme of this blog;

"Yellow journalism is a pejorative reference to journalism that features scandal-mongering, sensationalism, jingoism or other unethical or unprofessional practices by news media organizations or journalists. It has been loosely defined as "not quite libel".

Not quite.

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:48 PM)

Oh Please already with the Clintons!!! Hillary is a joke, just like her husband they are as smooth as butter and say what you want to hear!!! Bush had a lot of mess left on his platter when the Clinton's left the White House believe it or not! Some very hard times have come upon the US and forget Bush right now lets look to the future to see who will be the best leader for all of us and our country we need someone who knows how to handle foriegn affairs also in country issues like health care and not raising the working peoples taxes for free bees to all of those who LOVE HAND OUTS!!!

Sheri, Helena, MT (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:53 PM)

Fred Thompson for President. He's got my vote !

Jimmy Swagard, the nut house (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:56 PM)

Sheri, Helena, MT (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:57 PM)

Go Van go! I like what you have to say and I'm now leaning towards Clinton. Thanks for all the info.

Chris, AZ (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 12:58 PM)

EVERYONE: Make sure to have a HUGE cup of coffee for the debate. Otherwise you'll fall asleep when Fred Thompson starts talking.

Andrew, NJ (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:02 PM)

Wow, look at all the republicans afraid of little ole Hillary. If anyone thought Hillary could not get elected, should check you guys out and see how scared you really are.

MN (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:04 PM)

John Edwards voted against funding Blackwater in Oct. 2003 - Obama and Hillary kept funding them even AFTER news reports of Blackwater's violations!
Follow the money...

Margaret, NYC (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:07 PM)

America is not a banana republic - where a few families rule to coverup the crimes of the previous rulers!
Bush-Clinton dynasty - NO!!

Richard, Palatka, FL (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:12 PM)

MK,MO (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:15 PM)

It is obvious we do not need another moron in office when Thompson stated recently that are main foreign policy concerns are China and the Soviet Union. Hello!!!!Can someone please inform the man that it nolonger exists. Apparently, he been the last few days, not doing any campaigning so he can catch up on his homework. GEEZ IS THIS THE GREAT WHITE HOPE THE CHRISTIAN RIGHT WAS HOPING FOR?

juan,ft lauderdale,fl

Juan, Guess what! if you were with the program, you would know that those 2 countries are a BIG concern just now. You need to pay attention.

G S (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:21 PM)

Perhaps Van's vitriol needs closer monitoring.

In a word, he has ruined the board.

Mark Thieme (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:23 PM)

Straight up is Hard truth..He is a black man with a big problem. We knew it was you as soon as you started with the paper hanger?? stuff. Why are you so
choosing the same treatment of other you do not wish for yourself?
Cut the crap STRAIGHT UP?//? HARD TRUTH!

H P Boston (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:25 PM)

American politics is literally in the toilet … and those who won’t admit it are the extremely wealthy who are benefiting, the marginally wealthy who think they are benefiting and those who are simply focused on individual issues and are then being manipulated. There should be no doubt that we have a sociopathic president who is habitually dishonest and arrogantly pursuing a private agenda to benefit Special Interests and a select few, who in return support and back his administration, while he dumps an abundance of subterfuge on the American people – that is obvious and well documented. But the fact is that he didn’t elect himself!
It is also true that several of the current presidential candidates leave a whole lot to be desired: Fred Thompson appears to not even know what is going on and Rudy Giuliani seems to be trying to just capitalize on his ‘9/11’ performance, with both of them just really competing to be the next ‘puppet’ for the rich and powerful who now back and support Bush; then there is Hillary Clinton , another obvious sociopath, who may not be as controlled by others as George is yet she is still just as self-focused, egotistic and dishonest; and these are the current leaders in the popularity contest. Their personalities and history should be enough to really keep them from being considered but that simply isn’t the case. Why? It is apparently the combination of our blind preoccupation with our self-interest and their ability, with the substantial covert and overt support of those who back them (and who then benefit), to exploit that weakness. We really need to understand that it isn’t like emotionally supporting our favorite sports team, as far more is at stake, and that when we make ourselves vulnerable we literally have no one to blame but ourselves. The American people currently are simply a large part of the problem. If you doubt it, then just read a few days of these comments and see the irrational emotions, the focus on the trivial, the self-satisfying moronic expressions and the rationalizations to justify individual biases. As long as that thinking is prevalent, then the manipulators are ecstatic as their job is simply made easier.
In America today we have factions whose sole intent is to coerce, deceive, intimidate, mislead, distract, discredit, camouflage and/or whatever to manipulate public opinion. That includes those who, with apparent good intentions, totally focus on their limited issues and simply neglect the total picture, then egotistically make decisions and strongly advocate that others follow them. Unless each voter takes the responsibility to put aside their own biases, to avoid being manipulated and/or just led, and objectively evaluates the total picture and then conscientiously makes their own decisions, we will always be susceptible to ‘more of the same’. That literally scares me. If they steal the voter’s mind, they don’t need to steal the votes, as was supposed in 2000 (Florida) and 2004 (Ohio). It is important to objectively see the truth and if we can’t have the needed discipline, how can we ever expect them to. It really would be best this time around if the American people can simply make it their responsible and honest selection. Ca’mon people, let’s really care!

REG; East Valley Phx. AZ (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:27 PM)

Hard truth/AZ is Jerry too. what a phoney!

G (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:38 PM)

after reading the 500 + posts on the 'hillary gets snippy' deal, anyone who thinks Hillary is not the most divisive and polarizing candidate in this election cycle is just plain nuts,
she can’t win the general election, and that is what the dems need to focus on

MK,MO (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:39 PM)

Strange the little blurb on Thompson mentions SNL, but the one on Edwards, where Amy Poehler called John-boy an ambulance-chasing, charlatan, rat b*stard [and got a lot of applause from the NYC audience!] goes unmentioned.

Someone's bias is showing.

daveinboca Boca Raton FL (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:42 PM)

"maybe everyone should ban [sic] together and condemn your spelling instead. Get spell-check! Now! you pompous illiterate oaf, it must suck to be you"

Actually, this is the funniest comment by a delusionary idiot that I've seen for a good long while! Ron Paul??

daveinboca Boca Raton FL (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:48 PM)

**** GO TO HILLARY'S WEB SITE AND CHECK IT OUT !! *** hillaryclinton.com

Amanda Adams, Cedar Rapida, Iowa (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:49 PM)

F StLouis //The more they shriek against the Clintons, the more I want her to win//

Certainly a weird way to pick a candidate. Sounds kind of vengeful. But, at least there's a process, right?

Gary (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:54 PM)

Hard truth/AZ IS Jerry!!

bb (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:56 PM)

hillary clinton continues to display what a corrupt, dishonest, and corporate owned entity she is, and the media continues to praise her, they can't give a coherent reason for praising her, but praise her they must, seems to be the general consensus of all her backers, we don't know why we back her but we sure as hell do, a single file line of sheep obediently marching to the slaughter-house
MK,MO (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 11:30 AM)

MK. I am so much ashamed of you and your cutter language. I am VERY sure you are republican. If you don't know why we are support Hillary, ASK Alan Greenspan who described Bill Clinton as the BEST republican President of our time. Mind you, Alan Greenspan is a republican. He also claimed that Bill clinton handled the economy far better that Bush.

Kayode Alli, Seattle, Wash (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:57 PM)

As a radical supporter of the First Amendment, I have opposed censoring even the most provocative and distasteful materials.
I do not support anything Rush Limbaugh has ever said, and my own opinion of the man as a human being is quite low. No, he should neither be censored by the government nor the media. But anyone who listens to him for "facts" does has not earned and do not deserve the rights and privileges of American citizenship.

This vanreuter character comes blasting on this board with his biased facts as if he were the Word come down. Like Limbaugh, he cries when his judgment or intelligence is questioned, bleats and blares his acid in whatever direction he pleases. Like Limbaugh, he is wind tunnel.

If that is what people want to read on a political blog on Monday morning...well, I think you know my opinion.

Maybe someday vanreuter will have his own radio show where he gets to make fun of others and scream foul at every challenge.

Until then, I'll be waiting, listening, but no longer reading First Read, what was once one of the best political blogs online.

Best wishes to all who linger here.

Listen to the silence of all those who have left.

Click.

Mark Thieme (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 2:01 PM)

Van please keep up "ruining the board" it has been much better with you here.
Really Mark Thieme is someone now pretending to be you??

H P Boston (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 2:07 PM)

No I'm Jerry.

z (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 2:07 PM)

Unclick: ...has not earned and does not deserve...

Just a little more fodder for the little man who never makes a mistake.

Re-click.

Mark Thieme (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 2:12 PM)

Actually I think Juan in Ft. Lauderdale is Jerry.

Sierra SF (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 2:12 PM)

BYE-BYE Mark..have a great time in your F O D'S.

H P Boston (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 2:13 PM)

vanreuter, NY NY / if msnbc stops allowing rubbish to be posted where do you plan on posting? I just want to make sure your followers who can't form a complete sentence on they're own know where you are. If I can be of further assistance in your move don’t hesitate

MK,MO (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 1:15 PM)

All I can say is, for the umpteenth time, it's, "THEIR".

Van

PS: Bye Bye, mark.

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 2:14 PM)

We LOVE you Van! Keep writing the facts.Go Hill!!

Students at UNF (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 2:15 PM)

Actually I think Sierra is RUSH! the limburger! Stinks! Sounds cheesy too!

H P Boston (Sent Monday, October 08, 2007 2:16 PM)

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