First thoughts: the Goreacle
Posted: Thursday, October 11, 2007 9:13 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
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The Goreacle: Obama and Edwards may have to prep for another round of "What about Gore?" stories -- particularly if Gore wins the Nobel Peace Prize. We've had a theory for some time that if both Edwards and Obama failed to catch on this fall, the calls for Gore by those still looking for an anti-Hillary would amp up. The more Gore is talked up, the worse for Obama and Edwards. That said, if Gore doesn't run, his endorsement WILL be a big deal. If he does endorse (and he's basically promised he would), it's unlikely he'll be for Clinton. And right now, both Obama and Edwards partisans believe they have an inside track on his support. Of course, Gore’s endorsement of Dean was, in the words of Joe Trippi, the beginning of the end of that campaign.
*** What’s up, doc? In Des Moines today, McCain becomes the first GOP presidential candidate to unveil a comprehensive health-care plan. Per excerpts of his speech his campaign provided to First Read, McCain will call for giving individuals a $2,500 tax credit (and $5,000 for families) for having health insurance; providing various insurance choices responsive to individual needs; reducing drug costs by allowing the safe re-importation of drugs; and promoting personal responsibility to prevent expensive chronic diseases. In addition, McCain will argue that mandating insurance isn’t the answer (a dig at what Romney did in Massachusetts?) and will say he wants to judge the performance of doctors. But how important is health care to GOP voters? In the September NBC/WSJ poll, just 18% of Republicans cited health care as one of the country’s top one or two issues -- compared with 47% who picked Iraq, 40% who selected immigration, and 23% who said the economy. Health care will be an important issue for the eventual GOP nominee, but does it matter in the primaries?
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VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on Giuliani's and Romney's attempts to make it a two man race for the GOP nomination, plus takes a look at the latest on an Al Gore campaign.
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And then there were two? Interesting that a couple of reports on the Romney vs. Rudy spat yesterday was an indication both campaigns were interested in narrowing things down to a two-person race. We're not sure that's quite true yet for the Giuliani side, but it's definitely true for Romney. Giuliani partisans believe a more crowded top tier is good for their guy, and they certainly would rather see Romney and Thompson going at it rather than having to get involved themselves. As for Romney, while he seems to be losing the rhetorical fight from the post-debate fallout, simply by having "two-person race" stories written is a small victory.
*** Talk about setting your sights low: In a WashingtonPost.com discussion yesterday, Brownback said he would drop out of the GOP race if he finished worse than fourth in the Iowa caucuses. Come again? Can Brownback -- who finished a disappointing third in the Ames straw poll (in which Giuliani, McCain, and Thompson didn’t compete) -- or anyone from his campaign map out a scenario in which he finishes third or fourth in Iowa and goes on to win the GOP nomination? Does he really have enough money to limp to January? What if he were no longer invited to debates, would he stay in? Speaking of fourth place, Richardson grabs a bit of the spotlight today with pretty favorable New York Times profile and his education policy rollout in Manchester, NH.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Clinton remains in New Hampshire, where she discusses college affordability and later attends a “barn party”; Edwards, in South Carolina, addresses the Jasper County Democratic Party banquet; Giuliani also is in South Carolina, where he meets and greets with supporters in Greenville and then attends a York County GOP dinner; and Paul talks to supporters in Northern Virginia.
Countdown to MA-05 special election: 6 days
Countdown to LA GOV election: 9 days
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 26 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 37 days
Countdown to Iowa: 84 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 89 days
Countdown to Michigan: 96 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 100 days
Countdown to Florida: 110 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 117 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 390 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 467 days
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