First thoughts: Edwards' boost

Posted: Monday, October 15, 2007 9:18 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: First Thoughts

From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers

*** Edwards gets a boost: The Edwards campaign nabbed some solid Democratic credential-filled endorsements over the weekend, including a much-needed nod from the Iowa chapter of the SEIU (which Edwards officially receives today) and an enviro endorsement from Friends of the Earth Action. Is Edwards getting these endorsements because these groups know they'll be more important to him than they will be to resource-rich Clinton and Obama? Regardless, they are important boosts in the arm to the Edwards campaign. But also worth noting, the SEIU Iowa endorsement is good for Edwards (because of how it prevents other SEIU state chapters from coming in), but the two labor groups that matter more in the state are AFSCME and UAW. And Clinton may have inside edge for Gerry McEntee’s love.

*** Us versus them: Has there been a tougher politician for official Washington to get to know than Hillary Clinton? Bloomberg's Al Hunt has a great column today about this: "Her campaign has been brilliant. It is great at small stuff like bracket scheduling -- making sure she or a surrogate appears right before and after a major appearance by an opponent. It is equally good on big stuff… It also seems to be joyless, humorless and lacking in heart and soul. A take-no-prisoners, us vs. them mindset has served her well.” More: "She really believes the Washington ‘establishment' is hostile… Moreover, the griping about the media isn't without merit. She is a target of some of America's bloviating television pundits. Yet the Clinton campaign often sees a monolithic media -- whether mainstream print, broadcast or even Internet bloggers -- and it's the enemy. That produces a pervasive cynicism. Ultimately, that may cause problems for her campaign; it certainly will make it harder to govern if she wins the presidency." The irony of ironies is that Clinton may be more anti-establishment than she gets credit for since the Washington establishment is not as open to Clinton as the CW perceives.

*** Tough weekend for Romney? Over on the GOP side, Romney’s line -- channeling Howard Dean from 2004 -- that he represents the Republican wing of the Republican Party drew ire from, well, everyone, including Rudy and McCain. It gave them another opportunity to gang up on him. What do we make of the continued GOP piling on of Romney (and ignoring Rudy for that matter)? There's Dem consensus among the candidates not named Clinton to target the front-runner, but that’s not the case on the GOP side. There seems to be more intra-party venom for Romney than Rudy, which is perplexing to non-GOP insiders. Also, Romney’s straw poll loss in Nevada was pretty embarrassing since he attended and the winner (Ron Paul) did not.

*** Ohio blues: Meanwhile, House Republicans have ANOTHER retirement to deal with: nine-term Rep. David Hobson of Ohio. He's the 12th member of his party -- and third from the Ohio delegation! -- to announce his retirement this year. It’s not a great reflection on the House GOP leader, John Boehner, who is from Ohio. If he can't get his home state House veterans to stay, how can he get those teetering on retirement's edge in other states to stick with him for one more cycle?

*** The week ahead: While labor nods appear to be the order of the week for the Democrats, look for the Republicans to make their Christian conservative case as they prepare for what could be a very important forum in front of social conservative activists at the end of the week. Also today, filing to run for presidential officially opens today in New Hampshire. The first candidate who walked in to file? Per NBC/National Journal’s Mike Memoli, it was a man named Robert Haines.

*** On the trail: Edwards is in Iowa, where he talks about health care and later holds a press avail; Obama campaigns in Wisconsin; Richardson is in New Hampshire; Romney has a golf fundraiser in New York; Tancredo holds a town hall in New Hampshire; and Thompson, in New York City, speaks at the New York Conservative Party’s fall bash before sitting down for a live interview with FOX’s Neil Cavuto.

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Comments

Of course Hillary Clinton is Stone Cold. She wants the White House and she will kill to get it and not give a dog about anybody's feelings, be it Liberal or Conservative. She will use people up like she used her husband, no wonder people say she is a cold person.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 9:32 AM)

The only thing that matters is: Experiance. If you don't have it, you can't use it. 'Talking' about change is not experiance. Actual success is the key to making change. Guiliani is the right ticket.

Mark, Concord, NH (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 9:32 AM)

." The irony of ironies is that Clinton may be more anti-establishment than she gets credit for since the Washington establishment is not as open to Clinton as the CW perceives.'

I certainly would like to see some kind of evidence to qualify that statement, since it is factual that the 'establishment' is in fact hillary Clinton, give me a break

MK,MO (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 9:32 AM)

GEORGE BUSH YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH, YOU SUCK ! QUACK ..QUACK LAME DUCK IDIOT.

Z (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 9:37 AM)

'And Clinton may have inside edge for Gerry McEntee’s love.'

she may buy off the union leaders but the rank and file union members will be voting for edwards

MK,MO (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 9:40 AM)

Hillary gets stronger...

Monday, October 15, 2007

Surveys conducted last week identified three notable swings in the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination.

First, in both the daily Presidential Tracking Poll and the weekly Rasmussen Reports numbers, Hillary Clinton reached her highest level of support thus far. In the daily numbers, Clinton reached 49% on Sunday morning and she is at 46% for the full week ending October 14. That’s up four points from the week before and two points higher than her previous peak reached in the first week of August.

Second, core opposition for all Presidential candidates has grown since summer. For much of the year, Clinton was the only candidate with core opposition approaching the 50% mark but now the rest of the field has caught up. Five of the seven leading candidates (four Republican, three Democrat) now have more than 40% of all voters committed to voting against them. The other two (McCain and Thompson) face core opposition of 39%. In addition to its impact on Election 2008, a commentary by Douglas Schoen says that the “cynicism of the American people is only hardening and deepening.”

Third, and finally, as voters tune it they are detecting more differences between the candidates. For most of the year, Democratic voters saw little ideological difference between the leading Presidential hopefuls in their own party. Now, however, 40% of Democrats see Barack Obama as politically liberal while just 29% see Hillary Clinton in that way.

In addition to these trends and their potential impact on the Democratic nomination process, data released last week showed that Clinton has opened a growing lead over Republican frontrunners Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson. Her lead has grown for several consecutive surveys. Interestingly, the data shows Clinton’s toughest general election candidate at the moment is Arizona Senator John McCain, a man who is barely hanging on to top-tier status in the race for the Republican nomination.

A week ago, Rasmussen Reports noted that Barack Obama’s weekly numbers had improved and that it might be the beginning of a turnaround. This week, however, his support is back to 23%, matching his average for September.

John Edward’s support this week has fallen to 11%, the lowest level recorded since mid-June.

Despite the buzz about Al Gore and the Nobel Peace Prize, just 13% of Americans think the former Vice President is Very Likely to enter the Presidential race in 2008.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary

FEC filings due today.

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 9:41 AM)

The GOP is piling on Romney and easing off of Giuli because they believe Rudy can beat Hillary in '08 by attracting moderates and independents, who Romney doesn't appeal to. They smartly realize that Romney may not even get the majority of votes from social conservatives because he has flip-flopped on red meat issues, and because of his Mormon faith, which some don't count as being a "true Christian". Rudy, OTOH, is doing well with Catholic voters of all political persuasions, and is attracting a lot of support from the party's base because of his stands on national security. Also, Romney has propped up his standings in the race by putting a lot of his own money into his campaign. That is another indication of a lack of support from Republican donors.

kim, crofton, md (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 9:41 AM)

Hillary has to protect herself, so its no wonder she is in the guarded mode. I saw her at a rally at my brothers college and several(10) of us were able to speak to her briefly(including myself), and she is no way cold and uncaring. She is passionate and gracious, along with being incredibly knowledgable. She is VERY likable in person. My boyfriend didn't like her until he was able to meet her and listen to her first hand. He is now considering voting for her, although his first choice is Edwards.

Ashley& Students at UNF (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 9:49 AM)

You really have to look for Gerry McEntee.....

I googled the name and thought why a Irish football player would be so special to Hillary Clinton? Then I got it right.

Either way, it does surprise me about the Clinton's going after union support when they have a anti-union guru on board their campaign.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 9:50 AM)

did anyone notice how ron pauls landslide victory in the nevada straw poll was buried by the media?

MK,MO (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 9:55 AM)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mEEjX6j_f4

olbermann calls it right on gulianni

mike, san antonio, texas (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:00 AM)

Hillary is going to kick ass on election day and a large percentage of right wingers will leave the country or end their lives. just quessing.

Peals NM (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:09 AM)

I agree with the earlier commenter that Ron Paul's Nevada Straw Poll win over Romney, having followed his uppercut to Romney during the debate, should be getting a LOT more press.

That said, the reason so many people are piling on Romney is his total lack of authenticity. I certainly don't want Giuliani or McCain anywhere near the Presidency, but Romney in particular comes off so phony that its just offensive for me to have to watch him at all.

Shadow, Hamden, CT (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:14 AM)

The only news that matters in the campaign today is the FEC filing numbers. Cash on hand and burn rate will be the topics of conversation tomorrow.
Edwards is broke. Obama's big ticket supporters are waiting to see what kind of bang they are getting from the bucks that have already gone into Barack's coffers.
Clinton our raised Obama by 1/3 last quarter, and is planning to DOUBLE whatever he raises this quarter.
This is a critical day in the most critical week of the race so far for the Obama campaign, who already know how much they've spent. Today their big contributors find out too...

TheInsider (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:15 AM)

Hunt, Matthews, Russert, Todd, et al. seem to think that Clinton is obligated to make her case to them, and requires their approval in order to win the election.

She isn't, and she doesn't.

The American voters are the people who decide elections, not the media.

And as the polls overwhelmingly indicate, the American voters believe that Clinton has made her case, and approve!

JoeCHI (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:21 AM)

LOL:

Hillary has to protect herself, so its no wonder she is in the guarded mode. I saw her at a rally at my brothers college and several(10) of us were able to speak to her briefly(including myself), and she is no way cold and uncaring. She is passionate and gracious, along with being incredibly knowledgable.

LOL......Maybe if we have to give SCHIP to children between the ages of 18-25, they should not be allowed to vote. Their minds are still full of mush.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:21 AM)

Peals NM / 'Hillary is going to kick ass on election day and a large percentage of right wingers will leave the country or end their lives. just quessing.'

why would the neo-cons do that? hillary is for the same things they are

MK,MO (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:24 AM)

Of course Romney didn't win Nevada (even though he was present and Paul wasn't) NEVADA'S VOTERS are evidently much smarter than those in Iowa and New Hampshire!

HOW DARE ROMNEY claim he is the "Republican Wing of the Republican Party! Again..."this EMPEROR has no clothes! Only Romney and those blindsided along with him could believe that! Maybe he can forget his liberal record--buy votes like he did in Iowa (Romney even had little enough sense than to Boast about buying Iowa's votes!--The morning-after,CNN)But more and more Americans are seeing through this emperor!!

How rediculous!--The media claiming other G.O.P. candidates are ganging up on Romney! More accusations, as Romney supposedly, according to Media take on it, should get by with false and empty claims!

Of course other G.O.P. candidates find Romney's pretentious candidacy compelling to express their disagreements! Always, with LDS, Those who openly disagrees are attacking, or persecuting, or intollerant, or bigots. NOT SO. Let the TRUTH be told! Romney isn't even honest as he proclaims before media that he believes in God, Jesus and the Bible.

LDS God is "MAN"(Moses 6:57,7:32)

LDS Christ is "SPIRIT-BROTHER OF LUCIFER(as taught in [LDS]Gospel Principles, revised 1979,ch.3).

Media, wake up! The story isn't candidates disagreeing with Romney, it's Romney disagreeing with Romney! Have you done any homework on this candidate?

He paid his way nicely into the Heritage Foundation, MA Family Institute, MA Citizens for life, Federalist Society...which public record shows he never contributed to these, or any organizations like these, until months before his prez. campaign...These Conservative/Christian Orgaizations criticized Romney before his "contributions" and have shown support Since contribs. Some are questioning conflict of interest, as some in these groups are asked to evaluate Romney(according to NYT 03/11/07).

Other candidates Better be pointing out Romney's false statements, or lose the election as Americans vote for the candidate who shines his groom on falasies.

Jaye (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:26 AM)

Those who don't learn the lessons from History are doomed to repeat it.

History Lesson:
The power and importance of Polls.
Sept – Dec 2003
IOWA:
Dean polls 38%
Kerry 17%.
Edwards 12%
KERRY WINS IOWA 38%
Dean loses Iowa 18%

NEW HAMPHRIRE:
Dean polls 45%
Kerry 20%.
Edwards 2%
KERRY WINS NH 39%
Howard Dean 12%
Edwards 32%

NO Campaign should be celebrating yet.

Grace, NY (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:29 AM)

First Read, can you provide a translation of "CW" for me, thanks. "the Washington establishment is not as open to Clinton as the CW perceives"
BTW (by the way), I don't there is a charge for extra letters so there is no need to be obscure.

nuanced (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:31 AM)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mEEjX6j_f4

olbermann calls it right on gulianni
mike, san antonio, texas (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:00 AM)

Olberman is an hack and a second rate sportscaster. Using this guy as a source or argument for a point just shows how little common sense you have, and a lack of independent thinking.

Looking for the Truth (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:36 AM)

Ashley& Students at UNF,

Just son you know of course she is going to be pleasant to you in person,,,she wants you to vote for her. You shouldnt be fooled by this woman. she will bring down this country

EDWARDS in '08 (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:39 AM)

Z-

Exactly what does that have to do with anything, I am pretty sure 90% of the country would agree Bush is a screw up, but that has nothing to do with the subject at hand, if you want to bash him set up your own website

Get with the issue at hand (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:41 AM)

John Edwards is our hope for the future, If Hillary gets the nomination I am going for the independent candidate...either that or for the first time since I was 18 I wont be voting....

jrzygrl hoping for Edwards in '08 (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:42 AM)

CW = Conventional Wisdom

(what supposedly everybody but the voters think)

Carrie, Elkridge, MD (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:43 AM)

PRO WAR VOTES:
(This is a list of votes FOR WAR)

Obama 0/2 good judgement
Paul 0/2 a Republican with sense
Edwards 1/2 he apologized for his vote
Biden 1/2 ho hum
Dodd 1/2 see above
McCain 2/2 bomb, bomb Iran
Clinton 2/2 peas in a pod

QUESTION: What is the difference between pro-war McCain and Pro-war Clinton ?

QUESTION: What is the difference between pro-war Guiliani or pro-war Romney or pro-war Thompson
and pro-war Clinton ?

Question: What is the difference between pro-war Bush and pro-war Clinton ?

The both wanted to attack Iraq, the both want 'victory in Iraq', the both want to attack Iran.
What is the difference ?

QUESTION: Who are the anti-war candidates ?

QUESTION: Why vote for a pro-war candidate ?

Sierra, SF (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:45 AM)

Saw Giuliani on C-Span during one of his stops in New Hampshire and was quite impressed. Unlike some press and many of the immature posts by those who like to try to degrade others (a true Liberal trait), I didn’t hear 9/11 fear mongering but rather some excellent arguments against Hillary Care and some of her other proposals along with some sound economic and foreign policy arguments and ideas.

Molly, Scranton, PA (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:49 AM)

"Ohio blues" may be because they want out before the new administration investigates the massive election frauds in Ohio that the Republicans have been sweeping under the rug.

nuanced (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:50 AM)

Oh excuse me Jerry, and all the rest of the candidates for president are Rebecca of Sunny Brook Farm...sweet little nothings saying, "please let me be your president???". Give me a break. And as for, "she used he husband"...how do you mean? If she had not been an effective senator, she wouldn't be where she is today. You're blinded by your hatred for Mrs. Clinton therefore you're not credible in your critizism.

Laurie, Manasquan, NJ (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:50 AM)

'...She really believes the Washington
‘establishment' is hostile… Moreover, the griping about the media isn't without merit. She is a target of some of America's bloviating television pundits...'

Well, she'll always have First Read, anyway.

On the PBS TV show, Inside Washington, the resident neo-con Bush apologist, Charles Krauthammer called Hillary Clinton 'acceptable' and called her policies 'sensible'.
Mr Krauthammer wants war with Iran and Syria.
Why would he call Hillary Clinton 'sensible' ?
(hint: see Hillary Clinton's vote on Lieberman-Kyl)

Hillary is gaining support among the neo-cons

Sierra, SF (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:52 AM)

NO MK, shes just pretending to be a conservative hawk-can't you figure that out yet? Shes ten million miles away from Bush and the right wing. You are blind, man.

Peals NM (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:52 AM)

Unlike some press and many of the immature posts by those who like to try to degrade others (a true Liberal trait)

Molly, Scranton, PA (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:49 AM)

I am sure you fail to see the irony in your statement...

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:56 AM)

IT'S COME TO MY ATTENTION, THAT 90% OF THE COUNTRY AGREES THAT BUSH SUCKS. WELL I TEND TO DISAGREE WITH THAT STATEMENT I FEEL THAT IT IS MORE LIKE 99.999999999% AGREE THAT HE SUCKS! GET WITH THE DISCUSSION BUSH SUCKS BIG TIME. IMPEACH BUSH !

Z (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:56 AM)

nuanced -- Carrie got it right: CW is conventional wisdom. Thanks for the question.

Mark Murray (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 10:57 AM)

Jerry when you can't sleep at night try saying this over and over to yourself "madame president, madam president,
madam president".

Rufus Gibbons, DC (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:01 AM)

Jerry you can laugh all you want but you are starting to sound alot like Ann Coulter when you start espousing that certain groups of people should not be allowed to vote ie, women, jews, and citizens between the ages of 18 and 25. Your ideas don't belong is a free society.

Laurie, Manasquan, NJ (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:02 AM)

Laurie:

Of course they are.....
Hillary wouldn't have said it if it wasn't true!

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:08 AM)

The problem with conservatives is they never have the greater good in mind when they try to shove their ideas down people's throats. They are so intent on preserving what they have to the detriment of society at large. The problem with their way of thinking is that at the very extreme end of their policies lies social upheavel, bloodshed, anarchy and chaos. You just can't deny the majority of society the advantages and privileges that only a few are allowed. It's a shame that the lessons of history always repeat themselves. When you deny quality healthcare to all but those that can truly afford to pay for it you set up a class system in our country which is going to backfire. The I've got mine mentality is what is going to cause the Republican Party to lose big time in the '08 elections.

Laurie, Manasquan, NJ (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:12 AM)

Sorry Van, I was just being factual. Hope the truth doesn't hurt. Have a nice day.

Molly, Scranton, PA (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:19 AM)

--Clinton--My point has been for a long time. Which politician who is Us vs. Them? Hmmm, you are for the Iraq War or your not patriotic (against the US). Everything Bush does (well, almost everything). Given that information, I believe it is fair to call Clinton Bush-Cheney Lite. Here campaign learned from a group that has won before. But it is that attitude and those politics that turns me off of Clinton.

Nicholas, Minneaps, MN (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:23 AM)

Molly,Scranton PA... let's see a true liberal trait is that of trying to degrade others....let's see, do you mean like Ann Coulter?????? There's a liberal if I ever saw one!!

Laurie, Manasquan, NJ (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:24 AM)

Peals NM / 'NO MK, shes just pretending to be a conservative hawk-can't you figure that out yet? Shes ten million miles away from Bush and the right wing. You are blind, man.'

hillary pretends to be too many things, how do you know what she really is?

if you want to look at facts, fact is she never met a lobbyist she didn't like, she voted to blow iran up, she does not intend on getting out of iraq, her healthcare plan was written by the insurance and pharmaceutical companies, the staff she has surrounded herself with reads like an episode of 'america's most wanted', and you tell me I don't who the real hillary is? I dare say you are the one that knows little about the hillary. I know, she is the only female candidate so that's all that matters, right?

MK,MO (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:27 AM)

"A take no prisoners, us versus them minset has served them well."

Oh, really? Isn't that attitude "polarizing" and isn't that the problem perceived by many to be the biggest obstacle to Senator Clinton's election?

Dot, Illinois (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:46 AM)

Hey keep writing Laurie. You are intelligent and have loads of common sense as well.

Susan,Miami (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:48 AM)

Laurie,Jerry is our deranged little brother. He doesn't make sense much of the time so you have to humor him so he goes away.We think Jerry is also Sierra by the way.

bb (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:52 AM)

Sounds to me that the real problem with Hillary is that some people don't like the idea of a woman president and all these other reasons for this shrill negative rhetoric are just covering up that fact. I think a lot of people don't want it known that they are sexists deep down and are scared of a woman as president. Too bad for them. Even if it doesn't happen in '08, sooner rather than later a woman president will be a reality. So, you better get used to it.

Laurie, Nanasquan, NJ (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:54 AM)

MK, all your so called facts are half truths and outright lies.Did you get them from fox news?Figures.Maybe you are voting against her because she is a woman and you have "problems"with woman.

JeanneGA (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:56 AM)

jrzygirl, by all means.. dont vote. Hillary won't need you.

G (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:57 AM)

Over-generalizations are never good.

Bobbie LaPonte, New Orleans LA (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:58 AM)

Oh I don't want Jerry to go away. Jerry's way of thinking has to be challenged because there are more of him out there. Their hatred and bigotry has to be exposed and their myths put to rest. I like Jerry he's the gift that keeps on giving!!!

Laurie, Manasquan, NJ (Sent Monday, October 15, 2007 11:58 AM)

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