Previewing Tuesday's MA special election
Posted: Monday, October 15, 2007 11:43 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
Congress, States
From NBC's Mark Murray
As things stand right now, Republicans couldn't face a worse political environment in which to take back control of Congress next year. The Iraq war and President Bush's standing have blemished the GOP brand. Allegations of wrongdoing remain a problem (look no farther than what's happening in Alaska). And to top it off, 12 House Republicans have now announced they're retiring, giving Democrats some additional pick-up opportunities in 2008.
But a special congressional election in Massachusetts on Tuesday -- between Democrat Niki Tsongas (the widow of former Sen. Paul Tsongas) and GOPer Jim Ogonowski, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel -- might offer Republicans some clues on how to effectively compete in this environment, even in blue states.
Tsongas is expected to win this seat vacated by Rep. Marty Meehan (D), who left to become chancellor of the University of Massachusetts-Lowell, but recent polling has shown that Ogonowski is keeping it close. One reason why: He's running as the outsider while painting Tsongas as the insider, given her last name and the fact that Bill Clinton and Nancy Pelosi have campaigned for her.
"The problem: Congress is broken. The answer: Jim Ogonowski," an Ogonowski TV ad says. "Another politician won't change things. Jim Ogonowski will."
David Wasserman, who monitors House races for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, says it's a smart strategy, especially considering Congress' low approval ratings and the Democrats' inability to change the course in Iraq. "I think it's the smartest bit of strategy that a Republican has embarked on in 2007."
Tsongas has countered by tying Ogonowski to Bush and the Iraq war. "Ogonowski says … our troops should remain indefinitely. Sound familiar?" one of her ads says as Bush's picture appears on the screen. "Niki Tsongas says no more blank checks, a timetable for withdrawal, bring our troops home."
But Ogonowski has tried to parry this by calling the Iraq war "a mistake" and criticizing Bush's handling of it, although he says the US must keep its troops there until victory. What he has done is tack hard to the right on immigration.
This is Massachusetts, of course, and Tsongas is the clear favorite (Democrats, however, point out that this is a district that has been kind to Republicans in the past). But Wasserman adds, "I think it's going to be closer than Democrats want it to be."
And if that proves to be case, Ogonowski's campaign could serve as a model for Republicans -- the same way that anti-war Paul Hackett's (D) narrow defeat in a 2005 special election in Ohio later served as a model for Democrats that next year.
