Oh-eight (R): Rudy’s prospects in IA
Posted: Thursday, October 18, 2007 9:06 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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Republicans
If there is one domestic issue that Democrats regularly exploit against Republicans in general elections, it's Social Security. Did Giuliani and Thompson say too much about what they'd do with entitlements to cause them problems in, say, a swing state like Florida?
Bloomberg News curtain-raises the Values Voters summit that begins today and lasts through the weekend, and notes the divide in the Christian conservative community over what to do about Giuliani. "They are also divided on whether to field a third-party candidate if Giuliani wins the Republican nomination, which may deliver the White House to Senator Hillary Clinton of New York, who is leading the Democratic pack.”
An AP-Ipsos poll out shows, “Among conservatives overall, 21 percent support Fred Thompson, about even with Rudy Giuliani's 20 percent. Nineteen percent were undecided, 12 percent supported John McCain and 10 percent supported Mitt Romney.”
GIULIANI: The candidate did something he hasn't done a lot of so far this fall: visit Iowa. Giuliani's visit to the University of Iowa campus "was his first this election season and the first by a Republican candidate in the 2008 race. Giuliani has held 34 events in the state of Iowa since January, second only to New Hampshire, where he's held 38, according to the Washington Post." He's also the only GOP contender with an office in Iowa City.
The Politico’s Martin asks: Is Rudy competitive in Iowa? “For skeptics, there’s plenty of evidence that the answer is no. Giuliani’s entire strategy, as made plain by candidate and campaign alike, is based on performing well in the large states that will hold their primaries after the traditional early contests.” But: “Opponents sense a classic case of low-balling expectations. ‘They’re trying to sell you guys the story that they’re not playing here -- and that’s not true,’ said a top state aide to one of Giuliani’s Republican rivals.”
The Washington Times covers Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s (R) endorsement of Giuliani yesterday. “The governor is the second pro-life Republican to endorse Mr. Giuliani. Tommy G. Thompson, former Wisconsin governor and former Bush health and human services secretary, endorsed the mayor last week.”
HUCKABEE: NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli covers Huckabee in New Hampshire. The former governor paid tribute to New Hampshire's tradition of retail politics and said he hopes the state retains its first-in-the-nation status -- even if it means a December primary. "Thanksgiving Day may be a very brief run through Arkansas and grab a turkey sandwich so I can get back to New Hampshire," he told reporters.
Huckabee was also asked about Wayne Dumond, a convicted rapist who killed a Missouri woman after being paroled during his term as governor. Huckabee attempted to shift some of the responsibility on his processor. "His parole was based on the commutation given by Jim Guy Tucker, the Democrat governor in front of me, when Bill Clinton was actually the governor," Huckabee said. "Jim Guy was the acting governor during Clinton's presidential campaign. The truth and the facts will be helpful to me."
MCCAIN: The New York Times notes how McCain seems to be getting more comfortable taking shots at Giuliani -- something he hadn't been doing much on the campaign trail.
And he took this shot at Romney -- on his line that he’d consult White House lawyers about Iran, McCain said, “That’s a product of inexperience,” per the Columbia State.
Time's Joe Klein is declaring McCain back but not necessarily back enough to win the nomination. "He is not a likely nominee because many Republicans, of all stripes, tend to believe he "ran against the party" in 2000, as a prominent Republican told me. Indeed, McCain won the New Hampshire and Michigan contests with the help of Democrats and Independents who crossed over to support him. Those votes won't be so available this time. But it is wonderful to have McCain, the old suicidal, masochistic McCain, back roiling the waters."
ROMNEY: NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann notes that on Wednesday in Davenport, Iowa, Romney took a healthy share of slams at Clinton's health care plan, her proposal for "baby bonds" to newborns (which she’s not proposing anymore), and her appeal for economic shared responsibility. But on the issue of the war, Romney singled out Clinton's biggest rival as the candidate with the wrong plan for Iraq. "It's key for us not to precipitously withdraw in the sort of Barack Obama style," he said, "and leave behind an Al Qaeda stronghold, or any other group that could come back to threaten our future and launch attacks against America."
The Boston Globe says that Romney will likely take aim at single motherhood at this weekend’s Values Voters Summit. This from yesterday’s speech at the Club for Growth, where he also praised Bill Cosby’s tough talk for the black community: "Number one on my list is we have to teach our kids that before they have babies, they should get married. Marriage comes first."
Weekly Standard's Barnett, a self-professed Romney supporter, openly wonders what's wrong with the campaign. "Frankly, this hasn't been the best of times for Romney fans. It seems like the Romney campaign chooses a different theme for each 7-10 day cycle. Over the past several weeks some decided lemons have blemished the batch. Romney's vow to move ‘In God We Trust’ from the rear of our coins to the front was a dreadful piece of cornpone pandering. His boast over the weekend that he represented the ‘Republican wing of the Republican party’ was even worse. Who at Romney headquarters thought it was a good idea to echo Howard Dean's rhetoric? Someone please tell me that person's not still pulling a paycheck from Romney '08… The problem for Romney with the 2008 election's emerging paradigm is that he's most impressive when displaying his command of the issues. If Romney's going to spend most of his time insulting the other guys and saying they can't be trusted, then his campaign won't capitalize on his greatest strengths--his affability and his intelligence. His campaign will neutralize its candidate's greatest strengths."
The AmSpec's Jennifer Rubin picks up on the Romney problems and notes that “part of the issue is that the commander in chief cloak fits him poorly. Running against two tough guys, one of whom makes ads out of his POW films, makes the job harder. That said, I do suggest some steps that would help, including narrowing to a few (one?) basic themes, engaging people at an emotional level (for example, sound like you care when the military dad in the NH debate asks for an apology) and connecting his business experience to the argument that he has been a leader under pressure. Even his second favorite blogger Dean Barnett is worried. I think the next couple of weeks including the debate on Sunday will be very telling."
