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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The GOP's general election problem

Posted: Monday, October 22, 2007 10:39 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Mark Murray and Andy Merten
So far this election season, we've watched and attended what has to be dozens of presidential candidate debates and public forums. But at last night's GOP debate, something happened for the very first time: A candidate -- Ron Paul -- drew boos.

What Paul said that produced those boos is nothing new for the anti-war, libertarian Texas congressman. "I think the American people, if we as a party realize this and understand it ... the people in America want the [Iraq] war over with. They're sick and tired of it, and they want our troops to come home."

While many in the audience weren't happy with Paul's comments, those Republicans represent a minority of Americans -- which highlights a looming general election problem for the GOP. According to last month's NBC/WSJ poll, 56% said removing Saddam Hussein from power wasn't worth the US casualties or financial cost of the war; 56% said victory isn't possible in Iraq; and a whopping 63% said that Bush's troop surge either isn't making a difference or is making the situation worse.

And Iraq isn't the only issue on which Republicans -- and their presidential candidates -- disagree with a majority of Americans. Last night, Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, and McCain all talked about their support for private Social Security accounts.

Giuliani said, "I think the reality is that we have to deal with Social Security. The first thing we have to do is get a consensus behind private accounts if we're going to change it." Romney noted, "... [T]he president said let's have private accounts and take that surplus money that's being gathered now in Social Security and put that into private accounts. That works." Huckabee added, "The president had the right idea, but he used the wrong word. When he used the word 'privatization,' it scared the daylights out of a lot of people because it was right in the middle... The right word is 'personalization.'" And McCain remarked, "We need personal savings accounts, but we got to fix this system."

The problem for those Republicans is that privatizing Social Security, personalizing it -- or whatever you want to call it -- is a general election loser, pure and simple. In May 2005, when Bush's approval rating was at 47% and Democrats were demoralized after losing the presidential election, 56% still said that it was a bad idea to allow workers to invest their Social Security contributions in the stock market. Just 36% said it was a good idea.

The Republican presidential candidates are already facing a tough political environment heading into next year. But they might not be doing themselves a favor by backing a war and private accounts -- which a strong majority of Americans oppose.
 

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Comments

Ron paul didn't exactly liven up the crowd last night.  Rudy, Mitt and Fred pretty much held the GOP line.  
Imagine how much booing and worse there will be when those Social Security checks don't buy lunch at Denny's anymore.
Those who hurled the boos at Paul are the same ignorant masses who still believe the garbage about WMD'S, 911/Sadam link, terrorists will swim in mass across the Atlantic, have no problems with our constitution being shredded, and ignore the reality of record murders in our big cities (i.e., 320 and counting in Philadelphia).  
Huckabee!!! We have the best ideas we just need someone who can freaking talk, and bat down Liberals lies before they pile up.  LMAO
it is the only issue on which Mr. Paul is any where near reasonable.  All other issues he is a radical libertarian and would do away with All government.
The fact that the audience booed "75% of the American people" who oppose the war shows how grossly out of touch the Republican base is with the electorate.
jerry-Mitt, Rudy and Fred or the The Stooges.
A dedicated group of individuals have made a pledge to save democracy by cutting through confusing rhetoric and 30 second sound bits.  Project Vote Smart simply asks for unfettered information from the presidential candidates through the Political Courage Test, which is then posted on their website, votesmart.org.  All the candidates are required to do is give their positions on the issues that affect the lives of the American public.  We should write not only on this blog, but on all of the presidential candidates blogs encouraging them to share their vision of America in a simple, coherent way.  
They are phoney liers, just like their moron leader.
What a despicable bunch of human beings, spouting one lie after another.
The majority of Americans see thru the bush/chneyn bs and KNOW THAT IRAQ IS NOT WORTH AMERICAN LIVES AND $$$.  In 08 the election will prove resoundingly that bush/cheney/gop are NOT IN AMERICAS BEST INTEREST.
The modern day GOP doesn't care what the majority of Americans want, silly!  They know best.  We must follow.  They'll make us "free" if they have to force us, damn it!

Idiots, the whole lot.
This is decidedly not the first time a candidate got booed at a debate.   See it happen to Giuliani 30 seconds into the following video.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sJkfVdMEx5k

'Privatizing' Social Security is a scam pushed by the Wall Street investment firms to steal your retirement.
Think about all those lucrative fees Wall Street can charge American workers. A gold mine.
We just need Republicans, DLC Democrats and the info-tainment industry to convince Americans that they 'need' private accounts.

Shouldn't be hard.....
First, let's have a war with Iran.....
We've already passed Lieberman-Kyl...
steve everingham: '...it is the only issue on which Mr. Paul is any where near reasonable.  All other issues he is a radical libertarian and would do away with All government...'  

You said it, steve !!
The rest of Paul's 'program' leaves a lot to be desired !1
No public education, no public health, replace the income tax with something that will cost the rich and large corporations even less !!
NO THANKS
Yes, the lefty loony Marxists are in good form this morning.  How about something intelligent and new for a change as your child-like comments are getting old.
They booed Ron Paul??  Well then I know who I will vote for now! RP you are the ONE! Vote for Ron Paul if Fox people hate him he MUST be good.
Why are all of you Liberals worried about how Republicans treat their nominees at THEIR debate? We dont give a rats azz how you treat yours. Ive already explained before how those poll questions are asked. You can get them to say whatever, depends on agenda. Frank Rich was on Mike Gallager this morning and pretty much said the same thing. Frank Rich isnt exactly a republican.
The viewers voted and Ron Paul won! Get used to it!
"Bring the troops home."

BOOOOOOOOOH!!!!!!
You guys keep reciting polls. Maybe 75% of LIBERALS want the U.S. to lose in Iraq. Those polls may be national but they are not reflected of a cross between political lines. I live and work among people from both sides of the issue and I have yet to hear the majrity say lets get the hell out. A lot say we need to be more forceful and brutal.
"it is the only issue on which Mr. Paul is any where near reasonable.  All other issues he is a radical libertarian and would do away with All government."

nonsense!  he would return the FEDERAL government to it's constitutional limits, and allow state and local government to govern.  if you think that returning to the founding principles of this country, laid out in the constitution, are radical, then yes it is radical.  
they didn't boo Ron Paul.  Ron just gave them the facts.  The fact that the majority of Americans are sick of the occupation of Iraq and want to put an end to it.  So actually, the GOP was really booing the American public not Ron Paul!!  Ron Paul still won the post-debate poll to spite the GOP's antics.  
IMPEACH: Go right ahead. I guess you will be voting in the Republican primary. Your wasted vote is greatly appreciated. ROFLMAO...
They're still trying to push that privatization garbage?  It didn't sell even when Bush still has SOME backers.  That will only benefit hedge fund operators and wall st.  Most people don't know the first thing about investing and are too busy trying to feed their families to learn.  Raising the cap on Social Security to only the first $250,000 in salary will fix it in perpetuity, but try that and all repubs scream "HIGHER TAXES".  It IS NOT higher taxes on 95% of the population that won't see more than $250,000 in two lifetimes, and so pays SS on every dime they will ever earn.  It's going to affect people who earn more than $95,000 a year up and then only for the next $155,000.  Is that REALLY too high a price to pay when the alternatives are to either cut benefits to people who have no other source of retirement income or raise the retirement age.  DO you really want to tell people like coal miners, or Wal-Mart employees standing on their feet all day, that they have to keep standing  (at minimum wage no less) till they're 70?
After the debate, Ron Paul addressed the reaction of the audience quite well telling Sean Hannity that he wasn't allotted "a thousand tickets" like the other candidates and therefore he didn't have his people representing him in the crowd. But he did go on to win, handily, the Fox News Post-debate Poll with 34% of the vote. Huckabee 2nd with 26% and Roody 3rd @ 11%. Paul also challenged Hannity's downplaying of the results asking him "you don't believe your own poll results?"
Sierra, SF - Why don't you research Ron Paul's actual positions? Check out his interview on PBS with Judy Woodruff.

Also, can you tell me why San Francisco has so many street people if its compassionate policies are supposed to be helping them?
These are the same people who think Saddam did 9/11, that lying about BJs is against the law, but not about events surrounding outing of CIA Personnel, the same people whose governor spent his interview talking about how much federal money he can suck out of the system.  They are not conservative, so who cares what they think, they aren't in touch with reality either.  It is not a coincidence that the Neocons in Commentary Magazine call people like Paul realists, because they know that they are spouting garbage to meet their ends.  Of course the MSM should be tried for treason as well.  If this powder keg of a country blows, the MSM will most likely find themselves in the crosshairs too.  Some of us see the consequences of recent events around the world and don't appreciate their actions one bit.  
He got Booed for THAT? I guess the chicken hawks aren't tired of it, at all. Will they be upset if some troops leave Iraq for Iran, or is that an acceptaber trade?

I got into an argument last week with this dolt saying we needed to be in Iraq, and I asked him "What for?!" and he said...."To straighten out those Iraqis."

Such ignorance.

(To whomever asked last week "Why is everyone named Lee so stupid?" I apologize.)
" The rest of Paul's 'program' leaves a lot to be desired !1 No public education, no public health, replace the income tax with something that will cost the rich and large corporations even less !! "

Wow, as if that's not completely misinterpreting Ron Paul's platform...
The GOP's General Election Problem is they're gonna lose. And pushing the same old baloney means, they're gonna lose Big-Time. Look at Dubya's approval percentages. That will be what they'll get in November.
Its really pretty simple why Ron Paul got booed. Giulliani and Romney campaign got something like 1000 tickets each for supporters to attend.

And according to the people who were at the actual debates...the "BOOING" came from 1 particular area of the audience, all of whom were sitting together...so these people were most likely just plants and apparently Rudy Giulliani supporters.

But this isn't the first time Ron Paul got booed by these nuts. Remember in May he got booed for saying that terrorists attacked us not because of our freedom, but because of our foreign policy of bombing them for 20 years, and having military bases in their holy lands.

But I agree completely with the article, the Republicans are in denial. Remember 2006? They were saying they'll actually pick up seats, and we all know how that turned out. And since then the situation in Iraq got worse, they are alienating the social and fiscal conservatives who don't agree with them on Iraq(30% of the GOP base). They are alienating the anti-war moderates(75% of them). And ofcourse democrats(90%).

But all this booing just shows to the modlerates in the party just how crazy these war mongerers are, and Ron Paul will get more $$$/support because of this. And of course this will motivate his huge grass roots effort to prove these war mongerers wrong.
he doesnt want to get rid of public education1
if yoU're confused on paul's ideas go here:

http://www.ronpaulintro.com/thespins.phtml
"We dont give a rats azz how you treat yours. "


You should - one of them (HINT: SHE WEARS A SKIRT) is going to be your president, and you are scheduled for a long treatment of macho/leadership re-alignments.
Quote:
>>"No public education, no public health, replace the income tax with something that will cost the rich and large corporations even less !!"

More accurately, no *federal* control of education. Paul believes that overseeing public education is not a power granted to the federal government, but instead should be handled at the state and local level.

BTW, he wants to get rid of the income tax and replace it with *nothing.* Granted, that will cost corporations less, but it will also cost individuals less, especially if we actually get rid of deficit spending.
Sierra SF,
You obviously haven't done ANY research of Paul's positions OR the Constitution. He would NOT do away with public education or health... but he would get the FEDERAL government out of it because it's UNCONSTITUTIONAL for the FEDERAL government to be involved. BUT.. he would ABOLISH the income tax because it too is UNCONSTITUTIONAL !!
If you remember the FOX POLL, just like the MSNBC POLL results are not being broadcasted.  It's funny how the media is keeping Ron Paul down.

RON PAUL WON THE FOX NEWS DEBATE POLL LAST NIGHT
Ron Paul is a joke much like the Democrats.  Twenty-three uncommitted voters were asked if he won the debate and not a single hand went up.  The leftwing dingbats and Paul groupies are the only ones who like him.  It’s kind of sad actually to think how many people lack common sense and an ability to think for themselves.
Rudy' and Mitt's campaign bought most of the tickets last night. And people wonder why they got the most cheers?! And people wonder too why Dr. Paul got boo'd! Go figure!

If you cannot figure out why Dr. Paul got boo'd, you need your head examined. He's a threat to them and he's a threat to the Neocon agenda.
Whoa Sierra - I don't care who you vote for, but you are dead wrong about Ron Paul and need to read up a bit before talking such lies in public. Taking education and health care from the totally useless giant of Federal Gov't and putting it back to the states will guarantee BETTER schools, health care, roads, bridges, etc. than we've ever known!  As it is now our money goes to Washington and they decide how to disperse it - and they do a horrible job. The money needs to come to US in our states for health and education and cut out the middle man in Washington who doesn't have to live in our neighborhood.
The GOPs general election problem is that to win the nomination a candidate needs to exactly mimic the positions of the worst president in history.
Ron Paul can't possibly win, EVER... and Hillary will win by a landslide. Its call REALITY.
It is amazing how so many Americans want to bury their heads in the sand and pretend that there is not a threat from Islamic Extremist.
Hey repubs - just keep on backing that war of yours and pushing for social security privatization.
There is nothing that makes me happier than reading about the troubles the republicans are having.  I just have to giggle when I read about the sorrowful state of the right.  Keep beating the war drum Cheney!  Republicans keep protecting the insurance companies while children suffer! Keep bailing out the rich who profited during the house boon!  Keep declaring mission accomplished in Iraq!  Nobody is buying it anymore.  The American people are mad as hell and ready to do something about it.  If you all stopped talking for a moment and started listenting to what the American people want you might have a fighting chance but since I know that won't happen I'm happy to delcare Hillary the winner of the next election (-:!!!  He He He!!!
"You guys keep reciting polls. Maybe 75% of LIBERALS want the U.S. to lose in Iraq. Those polls may be national but they are not reflected of a cross between political lines. I live and work among people from both sides of the issue and I have yet to hear the majrity say lets get the hell out. A lot say we need to be more forceful and brutal."

It didn't say liberals, it said Americans. Don't try to put names onto people that don't agree with you.

Anyways you probably don't even know what the term liberal means? Did your parents told you it meant demons or just people that want change? Now before you bs me, being liberal about anything means you want change. And liberals tend to be better people when it comes to human rights and following the law.

Conservatives like arab conservatives such al-Queda and the Baathist party want to annihilate the Jewish state of Israel. They want to conserve the arab/muslim identity. By them wanting to conserve, they are conservative. You would identify them as liberal without even knowwing what context liberalism meant. The liberal muslims are those that live mostly in the united states and don't promote acts of violence. In order for them to be conservative, they have to have a bloodthurst or a desire to kill people. All conservatives or should I say true overall conservatives for the most part are savages. Plan and simple.
BOOS for Ron Paul???
OH NO, OH NO!!!
Give me a break!
To begin with, the fact that a few people are actually stupid enough to reveal their own true characters by BOOING someone when he stands opposed to WAR - and, specifically, to a war that has never been DECLARED BY CONGRESS (as required by the Constitution) - ultimately amounts to a COMPLIMENT!
    There are also many reports that FOX NEWS reaffirmed that it does deserve to be called "FAUX News"... that is to say ...there are reports that Fox News SCREENED those who wished to be part of the studio audience (and one can only presume the Frank Luntz "focus group" as well...). Is it any secret that Fox News has all but declared themselves an opponent of the RON PAUL campaign?  
    Here's a NEWS ALERT for Fox or anyone else that might be interested: when the authors of the Constitution identified providing for the COMMON DEFENSE as a central purpose of the Constitution, that was EXACTLY what they meant: to provide for the Common DEFENSE of (then) the 13 states they hoped would ratify the Constitution (and, of course, all that would follow).
    On Monday, June 25 1787, during the debates in the Federal Convention of 1787 (the Convention which produced what would become our Constitution), South Carolina's Mr. Pinkney made some very interesting observations about the nature of REPUBLICAN GOVERNMENT and its inconsistency with even the most informal notion of empire...
"Our true situation appears to me to be this. -a new extensive Country containing within itself the materials for forming a Government capable of extending to its citizens all the blessings of civil & religious liberty- capable of making them happy at home. This is the great end of Republican Establishments. We mistake the object of our Government, if we hope or wish that it is to make us respectable abroad. Conquest or superiority among other powers is not or ought not ever to be the object of republican systems. If they are sufficiently active & energetic to rescue us from contempt & preserve our domestic happiness & security, it is all we can expect from them,-it is more than almost any other Government ensures to its citizens."
   If you advocate the kind of NATIONALISM which now presumes to speak of its love for "America" and justifies our extensive military presence throughout the world ...the kind of person who attempts to portray Ron Paul as an "enemy of the state" ...please do me a favor: please do NOT drag out your busts of the founding fathers or recite quotations of them on July 4th in an effort to pretend you have even the slightest respect for them. All you want is cheap oil and a big stick. The founding fathers would never support the fascists that FOX news has sought to pick for us as the "frontrunners."
     As for social security, the founding fathers fought to secure their independence from Britain - a country they had long and proudly regarded as their "mother country" because her insistence on TAXING them without allowing THEM to elect (or remove) members of the body by which they were taxed amounted to what THEY considered slavery. In a letter sent to Parliament on July 6, 1775 - in which they were PLEADING for reunification on dignified terms even while fighting the British - the members of the Continental Congress wrote...
"We cannot endure the infamy and guilt of resigning succeeding generations to that wretchedness which inevitably awaits them, if we basely entail hereditary bondage upon them."
The current opinion of the majority of the American populace to the contrary be damned, I submit to you that SOCIAL SECURITY IS NOTHING MORE OR LESS THAN "HEREDITARY BONDAGE." If our seniors lack the decency to put an end to this program by which their own children and grandchildren are to subsidize THEIR retirement before being allowed to make any provision for their own knowing that the system will be completely bankrupt before they ever receive a penny of what they have "invested"... then our seniors deserve the place in hell that I can only hope has been reserved for them.

In Liberty ...and support for RON PAUL!

James Hines
Gene, CA

Honey, you don't hear people say let's get the Hell out of Iraq because like all of your cronies you are too busy talking!!!  The rest of us don't even bother to reason with your stupid asses anymore.  We're just waiting patiently for the next election and PRAY TO GOD you haven't F-ed up this country so bad by that time that it can still be fixed..........by a Clinton.  That really gets your goat doesn't it!!!  
This same group of idiots would boo whomever had the audacity to tell them that they believed in evolution, also !
Hey, all of you good little German republicans! The American public has finally awakened, thankfully, before our country joined the trashheap of history.  Anyone who still buys this garbage does not want American to continue her greatness and uniqueness. The Republican message cannot continue to win because it is everything that this country is not.  We don't buy it anymore!


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