Oh-eight (R): Careful what you wish for
Posted: Tuesday, October 23, 2007 9:14 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
Republicans
Newark Star-Ledger's Farmer writes that Republicans may be relying too heavily on hatred of Hillary Clinton, and warns they should be careful what they wish for: “We've seen this scenario before. In 1980, Democrats, burdened by a politically crippled Jimmy Carter seeking a second term, thought they saw salvation in the person of Reagan, the GOP nominee." More: “Reagan won in the end not so much because he was the people's choice but because they'd had their fill of Carter incompetence. They wanted change -- any change. It's what Democrats believe is the antidote to the lack of affection for Clinton.”
As if on cue, however, National Review's Jonah Goldberg makes the case that Clinton as the Dem nominee is the GOP's best chance at holding the White House. "The most interesting thing to come out of the umpteenth Republican debate Sunday is confirmation that the GOP is dying to run against Hillary Clinton… Is it really so obvious that, say, Rudy Giuliani or Mitt Romney represent ‘change’ less than the ultimate Clinton retread, complete with Bill as ‘first gentleman?’ That's how Democrats are betting right now, and they may be bitterly disappointed -- again -- when it comes time to collect."
The New York Times Caucus blog reports on a meeting of Christian conservative leaders following last weekend's Values Voter confab. “While some in the room are likely to begin coming out for particular candidates in the coming days, the overall goal of others in the group, most of them members of the Arlington Group, a coalition of prominent Christian conservative organizations, continues to be to hang together. The hope is to perhaps come to an agreement about who they will throw their collective might behind after the day of prayer" set for Thanksgiving time.”
So it could be another few weeks before these folks begin rallying around a single candidate. Is this a sign that Mike Huckabee as a month to prove viability? Or is this a chance for Romney to give his Mormon-JFK speech in order to rally these folks behind him? Either way, both Huckabee and Romney still have time apparently.
GIULIANI: The candidate is nabbing ANOTHER Massachusetts Republican behind his cause (in a nice little shot at Romney): ex-state treasurer Joe Malone. Among the Malone veterans in key posts supporting Romney are campaign manager Beth Myers, traveling press secretary Eric Fehrnstrom, and fund-raiser Steve Roche.
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Time's Michael Duffy does a reality check on Giuliani's claims he'll be competitive with Clinton or any other Dem nominee in the so-called blue states. "For starters, it's hardly accurate to say the GOP kissed off all those states last time around. Several were more competitive than some may recall. Facing Sen. John Kerry, Bush led from time to time in some statewide polls in Wisconsin and Minnesota as well as in Michigan and Pennsylvania well into the last month of the 2004 campaign. I recall sitting with one of Kerry's top strategists on the final weekend of the campaign and hearing him worry out loud over a drink about what a difficult state Wisconsin has become for Democrats.”
“Of course, that was four years -- a lifetime -- ago. But even if they have recently been more up for grabs than he would like to admit, it's hardly safe to assume that every one of the states Rudy mentions as gettable is at the moment available to him — or ever likely to be… But Rudy's electoral college argument has its share of weak spots. If he would put some blue states into play, his name on the GOP ticket also would invite some red ones onto the dance floor, too. He would have to work harder to hold border states like Tennessee (11) and Missouri (11) than Bush did against Kerry and could hardly take Arkansas (11) for granted, assuming Clinton parks her husband there for a few days in October (That prospect alone is reason for keeping an eye on Mike Huckabee in the GOP veepstakes). Meanwhile, Iowa (7) and New Mexico (5), which turned narrowly red in 2004, could for all kinds of reasons just as easily turn back in 2008."
HUCKABEE: The campaign continues to get treated as a top-tier candidate by members of the press. Newsday's Jim Pinkerton calls Huckabee the hottest "buzz" candidate on the GOP side.
Newsweek's Alter, meanwhile, wonders if Huckabee would be the GOP's best bet. "Huckabee comes across more hopeful than Giuliani, more believable than Romney, more intelligent than Thompson and fresher than McCain."
And
National Review's Rich Lowry also raves about Huckabee, but isn't ready to concede the candidate has a shot at the nomination. "Pundits now say that Huckabee has made the GOP contest a ‘five man’ race. This is overkill. Without organization, money or an agenda, Huckabee is very unlikely to win the nomination. A presidential candidate has to be more than a performer. As one top social conservative says, ‘He's not running for Toastmasters.’”
“But he could be running for vice president. He's a natural fit for Rudy Giuliani. If Huckabee wins an upset in Iowa, he will deal a potentially mortal blow to Giuliani competitor Mitt Romney."
MCCAIN: The
New York Times profiles McCain manager Rick Davis and his efforts to get the campaign's financial house in order. "Now that the tempestuous summer has faded, Mr. McCain is, by most accounts, doing better as a candidate: drawing good responses from big crowds, showing more of his puckish humor and maverick streak, giving well-received debate performances and rising a bit in the polls. But the campaign’s challenge is still acute: it is now living on borrowed money.”
McCain says the latest bin Laden tape proves the strategy in Iraq is working.
ROMNEY: To bolster its claims that its new South Carolina strategy is working, the campaign released a new state poll showing the candidate making steady progress. "An October poll taken for the campaign shows Romney in second place in South Carolina with 20 percent support of likely Republican primary voters. Former U.S. Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee is first with 24 percent.
The State was given a confidential copy of the poll Monday by the Romney campaign.”
The Washington Post's E.J. Dionne offers some advice on the Mormon issue. "Romney should give not ‘the Kennedy speech’ but his own account of the religious question. He needs to explain how he can fairly ask that we not hold his faith against him, even as he insists that religious people should vote for him because of the values his faith has taught him. Mormonism should not be an issue. Consistency is another matter."
THOMPSON: In a press conference yesterday, the Washington Times writes, Thompson “was asked yesterday whether he lacks the passion needed to run for president, whether he could keep the Republican nomination battle from becoming a two-man race, and just exactly why he gave only a five-minute speech to hundreds of supporters over the weekend. He didn't like the questions.”
In his public life, Fred Thompson "has long
refrained from speaking about the death of his daughter from an accidental drug overdose in 2002, an episode that friends and colleagues say played into his decision not to seek re-election to the Senate in 2002. But on Monday, when questioned at a news conference about his reaction to the Terri Schiavo case, Mr. Thompson opened up about the death, suggesting the Schiavo matter had particular resonance for him because of how his daughter, Elizabeth Panici, known as Betsy, had died."
Thompson's statement played well in Florida.
