First thoughts: Direct mail wars
Posted: Tuesday, October 23, 2007 9:21 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
*** Direct Mail Wars: Just days after the Clinton campaign sent a mailing to Iowa voters defending the candidate’s vote for the Lieberman-Kyl measure, the Obama camp sends out its own mailing today. (By the way, isn't it odd that Obama is following Clinton's lead on making this a paid campaign issue. The conspiracy theorist in us wonders if there's a rope-a-dope-ness to this issue, but we digress.) “While other Democrats voted for for [sic] the Kyl-Lieberman Amendment, Barack Obama opposed another Bush foreign policy fiasco,” it states. Obama is then quoted as saying: “Why is this amendment so dangerous? Because George Bush and Dick Cheney could use this language to justify keeping our troops in Iraq as long as they can point to a threat from Iran.” And the mailing also says this: “Barack Obama is the ONLY major candidate for president to oppose both the Iraq War from the very start and the Senate amendment that raises the risk of war with Iran.” (Of course, Obama’s rivals will gladly point out that he didn’t vote against the Iraq war -- he wasn’t in the Senate then -- and didn’t vote against Lieberman Kyl because he was campaigning when that vote took place.)
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Teflon Hillary? As we suggested yesterday, the Clinton campaign -- given its earlier mailing -- may very well see Hillary’s Lieberman-Kyl vote as a vulnerability, and her opponents are now pouncing on the issue. But will it stick? So far this year, Obama and Edwards have assailed her 2002 Iraq vote, to no avail according to the polls. Then this summer, they turned their attention to her refusal to disavow raising money from lobbyists, which is a subject that has all but disappeared. Now it’s Iran and Lieberman-Kyl.
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Is Obama Losing The Netroots? But does Obama have some trouble of his own? Per the Hotline's chief blog watcher, Conn Carroll, the netroots are "eating Obama alive" on the story that one of the performers on the candidate’s upcoming Gospel Tour, Donnie McClurkin, has said that homosexuality is a choice and can be cured through prayer. Obama has issued a statement disagreeing with McClurkin’s views on gays, but the campaign indicates that the performer will remain a part of the concert. Does Obama have a problem with the netroots? As it turns out, he’s now in third place in the
Daily Kos straw poll, behind Edwards and the new darling of the netroots: Dodd.
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A Five-Man GOP Race? The
Washington Post's Dan Balz sets some new CW, claiming the GOP race is now a five-way contest -- not just a two-man race between Rudy and Romney. Thompson, McCain and Huckabee all are viable as well, he says. "Romney ought not to assume Thompson will continue to sputter and Huckabee won't be able to enlarge his support, particularly in Iowa. The Republican race may yet become a contest between Giuliani and Romney, but it may have some significant twists ahead before it reaches that point."
*** Fred’s Improvement? Thompson, meanwhile, is showing some refined skill on the campaign trail. He appeared to shut down questions about his earlier response on Schiavo (when he supposedly didn't know enough to talk about the issue) by personalizing the situation, bringing up how he dealt with the death of his daughter.
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The (Potential) First Ladies’ Club: The Women's Conference’s Presidential Candidate Spouse Forum takes place in California. The panel, moderated by Maria Shriver (whose husband is dealing with the fires in California), includes Elizabeth Edwards, Michelle Obama, Cindy McCain, Ann Romney, and Jeri Thompson.
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On The Trail: Biden stumps in Iowa; Clinton holds a rally in Denver; Edwards, in Merrimack, NH, has a roundtable on education and then a media avail; Giuliani is also in New Hampshire, where he holds a morning news conference; Gravel has a fundraising reception in New York City; McCain files his paperwork to be on the New Hampshire ballot; Obama attends a house party in Merrimack, NH and then rallies with Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick (D) in Boston; Richardson raises money in California; Romney campaigns in South Carolina; and Thompson is in Florida. Also, Bill Clinton -- who isn’t attending Shriver’s presidential spouse forum -- headlines a fundraiser for his wife in Minneapolis.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 14 days
Countdown to LA GOV run-off (if necessary): 25 days
Countdown to Iowa: 72 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 77 days
Countdown to Michigan: 84 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 88 days
Countdown to Florida: 98 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 105 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 378 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 455 days
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