Oh-eight (D): The big 'if'
Posted: Friday, October 26, 2007 9:08 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
Democrats
CLINTON: The AP’s Nedra Pickler writes in her analysis that the Dem race is pretty much Hillary’s to lose. “Democratic insiders, including some working on various 2008 campaigns who spoke on condition of anonymity, agree that barring a major stumble, Clinton is all but sure to win the nomination if she wins the opening contest in Iowa. She is polling well in the states that follow, and no one else would be able to challenge her unless an Iowa loss made her look vulnerable. ‘If Hillary wins Iowa, she can practically start shopping for a running mate,’ said California-based Democratic strategist Dan Newman. But that's a big if.”
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Looking at the national polls, NBC political analyst Charlie Cook observes in his latest National Journal column that Clinton has a high floor -- but also a low ceiling. “Unless Clinton becomes dramatically less polarizing, which seems improbable, she is likely to maintain her slim but consistent advantage. But will it ever widen to the point where a misstep or a bit of misfortune wouldn’t give her Republican opponent the lead? That’s the key question. She seems to be putting the Democratic nomination away, but can she ever put the general election away? Or will she always have no better than a narrow lead in the polls, never quite beyond striking distance from her GOP rival?”
The New York Times profiles Clinton’s management style. “It is indeed likely that a Hillary Clinton White House would be more punctual, precise and process-oriented than her husband’s. Still, managing something as big as the federal government and unforeseeable as a presidency presents an inevitably steep learning curve.”
NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones writes up Clinton’s birthday party last night: Clinton celebrated her 60th birthday at New York's Beacon Theater Thursday night, with family, friends and an "extended family" of supporters. The press was kept out early on as Terry McAuliffe, the former DNC chairman and current Clinton campaign chair, made his pitch to the audience for why they should vote for her. In a conversation with reporters outside the event before it began, McAuliffe said that there was a lot of work to be done before Clinton became the nominee but that things were going well and she was continually rising in the polls.
Later, at least 70 reporters, photographers, and camera crews scrambled around for position after being allowed in for the last portion of the bash to watch part of the performances of Elvis Costello and The Wallflowers and to hear Bill Clinton and Hillary speak. When the candidate took the stage, she said she considered the audience an extended family and thanked them for their confidence in her candidacy.
It has been rare in recent months to see Hillary, Bill and Chelsea together at a public event, but they were all on hand last night, along with the senator’s mother and brother. She spoke for about 15 minutes about her goals for the country, talked about the importance of her family, and highlighted her husband’s political experience.
Elvis Costello ended the show by leading the audience in a rendition of “Happy Birthday,” incorporating the same twist used by Hollywood director Rob Reiner when he hosted a fundraiser for the senator on Sunday at his home on the west side of Los Angeles. “Happy Birthday, Mrs. President,” Costello sang.
Also writing about the party, the New York Times notes that Clinton “took a rare shot at” Giuliani, “for saying he would root for the Red Sox in the World Series… ‘I have been a fan, and I remain a fan of the New York Yankees -- no changes, no looking to curry favor with anyone else,’ she said to much laughter and applause from the audience of mostly New York Democrats.” The paper adds, of course, that Clinton “grew up a Chicago Cubs fan and recently said she would split her loyalty between those teams if they met in the World Series.”
The AP says that Clinton’s star-studded birthday bash raked in more than $1.5 million. “Bill Clinton noted that his wife was ‘still looking, I think, very beautiful.’”
The New York Daily News goes nuts on Clinton’s birthday bash -- with photo galleries, a timeline, and a transcript of her speech.
Also, Rep. Stephen Lynch (D), a congressman from Boston, endorsed Clinton.
DODD: The New York Times writes up Dodd’s recent TV ad, which has him going to a barbershop, that’s running in Iowa. “This advertisement … has already brought some rare attention to the senator, who has been perceived as a trailing member of the Democratic pack. Some supporters of former Senator John Edwards have criticized the advertisement for its clear reference to his two $400 haircuts, which made news this year. But there is a lesson here: If a candidate just wants to be noticed, a little focus on the follicles is not such a bad thing.”
EDWARDS: The Environmental group Friends of the Earth Action began airing a radio ad for Edwards “on stations in Concord, Manchester and the seacoast region” of New Hampshire, the AP reports. The ad “intersperses audio of Edwards describing his goal of reducing carbon emissions by at least 80 percent by 2050 with the voice of an announcer who hails his 'courage to lead on global warming.' "
NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller says this is the first independent expenditure of the Democratic primary, per FOE spokesman Mark Sokolove.
In his policy speech today, Edwards will say: “In America today, we need action measured by conviction, not just words. In this election, you face a choice between honest leadership and say anything politics, between conviction and calculation, between strength and compromise. Let me tell you something: it takes strength to say no to the lobbyists and special interests – it’s much easier to just go along to get along. But I will never compromise my principles for the sake of politics – and I’ve been saying ‘no deal’ to the big corporations, the special interests, and the lobbyists who work for them my entire life.”
OBAMA: “Obama’s campaign held a hurriedly put together conference call Thursday night with gay and lesbian leaders in South Carolina to discuss the candidate’s gospel tour,” the Columbia State reports. “Afterward, the South Carolina Gay and Lesbian Pride Movement decided to hold a vigil outside the Sunday concert in Columbia to protest gospel singer Donnie McClurkin.” The group’s president said Obama’s addition of an openly gay pastor “doesn’t right the program.”
The AP: “Obama has spoken out against homophobia, including in the black community.”
Columbus, Ohio Mayor Michael Coleman -- the first black mayor of Columbus -- will endorse Obama today at an Obama rally, the Columbus Dispatch reports, despite calls from Bill and Hillary Clinton.
