First thoughts: Obama steps it up, again
Posted: Monday, October 29, 2007 9:14 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
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Obama steps it up -- again? How much was the Obama
New York Times interview -- in which he told the paper he would begin to step up his criticism of Clinton -- was simply about keeping donors on the reservation? Strategists will tell you that there's no faster way to speak to your donor base than thru the Times. By the way, it wasn’t the first time Obama said he would begin contrasting himself with the Democratic front-runner. From the August 15 Washington Post: "Consistently trailing Clinton (N.Y.) in national polls, Obama (Ill.) has sought recently to draw more explicit contrasts between his views and what he has portrayed as the conventional thinking and behavior that have caused problems for the country, especially in the rest of the world. He did that again in the interview Monday afternoon, defending himself against criticism from Clinton and other Democratic rivals for a series of statements on foreign policy and arguing that Clinton's foreign policy views risk continued international perceptions of U.S. arrogance." Is that Post interview from August evidence that, deep down, Obama doesn’t want to go after Clinton the way his supporters and the media want him to? We’ll find out for sure tomorrow night.
*** Great expectations: Obama has clearly raised the stakes for his performance at Tuesday's MSNBC debate at Drexel. The downside to those raised expectations: What if he fails to land a solid blow at Clinton? That could be how the media covers the debate, from the perspective of whether Obama puts her on the defensive or whether she swats him back. Just in time for tomorrow’s debate, a new University of Iowa poll shows that Iowa is a dead heat for the top Democrats. Clinton is at 28.9%; Obama is at 26.6%; and Edwards is at 20%.
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Two or three presidents? Here’s an interesting preview of what could end up being the longest general election in this nation's history. Giuliani yesterday took Clinton to task over a promise she made about sending envoys around the world to fix the country's international reputation -- the day after she wins the election. Said Giuliani, "The danger is that you have two presidents conducting foreign policy, one with all the power and no moral authority, and one with no power." What Giuliani is touching on is a problem we've identified numerous times about the frontloaded calendar: the possibility of not two presidents -- but really three (the current one and the two nominees). It's a governing nightmare for the current president, but it also could become a political nightmare for the eventual GOP nominee, unless he is able to paint the Dem nominee as undermining the government (as Giuliani attempted with his critique yesterday). Because if this doesn't work, it'll mean the GOP nominee will be constantly stuck between defending President Bush or criticizing him. That’s not a great choice.
*** Mistakes were made…: However, Giuliani’s critique of Clinton was yet another clever way for him to passively admit "mistakes" -- without owning up to any specific ones. Giuliani said he wasn't "criticizing Senator Clinton" for promising to send envoys as president-elect or "charging her with anything." Instead, he wanted to offer her a chance to correct her statement. "I know I make my own set of mistakes, and I wish I could correct things I've said... Let's give her a chance to explain what she meant and withdraw it," Giuliani added in a conciliatory tone, per NBC/National Journal’s Aswini Anburajan. Giuliani has dealt with his supposed personal problems very deftly to date by constantly owning up to making "mistakes," making any future revelations all part of the "mistake" umbrella.
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McCain’s disadvantage in Iowa: It’s too bad for McCain that the Iowa GOP's caucus rules are so different from the Iowa Democrats’. McCain probably scores well in the second-choice category with Iowa Republicans. The problem is that there's no "threshold" system for the Republicans, meaning every caucus is a simple straw vote. Without the opportunity to coalesce second-choice supporters -- a la John Kerry and John Edwards in 2004, when Dean and Gephardt didn't make the 15% threshold in some caucuses -- it makes Iowa that much tougher. Still, second place in Iowa appears to be completely up for grabs, and McCain may have little choice.
*** Sports metaphor time: After last night, we have to ask: What if the Democratic primary fight turns out to be as interesting as the World Series? So many of us are convinced that the Clinton- vs.-somebody-else dynamic will happen because it always does. Then again, sometimes a veteran team waltzes into the World Series and simply sweeps the hot newcomer. (Of course, the Sox found themselves down 3-1 to Cleveland in the ACLS; Clinton has yet to face that kind of adversity.) Also, can Mitt Romney take heart in the juggernaut that is the Boston sports scene? Sure, he likes to disavow his Massachusetts credentials, but let's face it: Boston apparently is for winners right now -- with the Red Sox, and even the Boston College Eagles. Will Massachusetts add Romney to their list of winners come February 2008? Finally, with the Red Sox season at a close, look for renewed speculation of Curt Schilling entering Republican politics. There are still some Republicans holding out hope he'll retire and run against John Kerry.
*** On the trail: It’s a busy day in New Hampshire, where three presidential candidates -- Edwards (at 8:30 am ET), Romney (at 12:30 pm), and Thompson (at 2:45 pm) -- officially file to be on the ballot in the state. Edwards, who’s in the second day of a four-day swing through the Granite State, also gives a speech today in Manchester, in which he will rail against corruption in Washington and a political system that doesn’t work for the people. And in what appears to be the longest concerted effort he has made in ANY state to date, Giuliani spends virtually his entire week in New Hampshire (sans one short stint in Connecticut to pick up an endorsement). Elsewhere today, Obama begins his day campaigning in Cedar Rapids, IA before holding an event in Charlottesville, VA.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 8 days
Countdown to Iowa: 66 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 71 days
Countdown to Michigan: 78 days
Countdown to SC GOP primary: 82 days
Countdown to Florida: 92 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 99 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 372 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 449 days
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