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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Romney expands lead in Iowa

Posted: Monday, October 29, 2007 1:50 PM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
We mentioned the Democratic side’s University of Iowa poll results this morning. Here’s the Republican side with Romney having maintained and expanded his lead to a commanding 36.2% to 13.1% over Giuliani. Huckabee is on Giuliani’s heels at 12.8% and Thompson is fourth with 11.4.%. Romney was at 27.8% in August; Huckabee was at just 1.8%. McCain stands at just 6%. Nearly 15% of Republican voters say they are undecided.

The Des Moines Register notes, “Male voters preferred Giuliani and Thompson, the poll authors said, while Romney is the only Republican candidate who did better among women than men. Romney also does very well among the oldest caucusgoers, while Huckabee is succeeding with baby boomers….”

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Of Mitt does well with the women...he's married to a number of them, an he's got that Ken doll good looks going for him...
Oops, meant to say Of COURSE Mitt....
Does anyone know what percentage of Iowa is Mormon?

He is in a cult. Hes a MORMON. No way this guy will be the nominee.
No God fearin, bible bangin, rightwingnut repugnant will ever vote for a Mormon. Theyre fake Christians. And theyd be right.
But this would be normal given the fact that Giuliani really never campagined in the Straw Vote the GOP did this past summer.  I still think it will be close, but for the Republican side, Giuliani will still be the candidate, which I find amusing because with some of his views...that comes under "win at any cost".
If Huckabee is smart, He will try to get any people who had supported Brownback as well as Hunter and Tancredo.  Hunter and Tancredo don't have enough visible support and money to make it long term in the race.  I would hope that they have enough vision to know that at this point.  I don't think that they will though since one (or both) have said they are not running for reelection to the House.  Ron Paul has enough support to do something, but anyone's guess as to what it could be.  
Warren Gamaliel Harding was nominated, by the republicans because he was a 'good looking dude.'  See, he was nominated right after women's suffrage and the republicans thought women now having the right to vote would desire a more attractive nominee.  Coincidentally, Romney is the only republican candidate who did better among women than men ...

What can I say, I vote based on appearances too.  I've always like Keven Spacey, errr Mike Huckabee ...
A very small percentage of Iowa is Mormon, less than 1 percent
A very small percentage of Iowa is Mormon, less than 1 percent.
What about Count Chocula -- errr, Thompson
Go Mitt Go!
No matter what you want to call or make of Mitt Romney, there's no denying that he has a well defined strategy and he's being very successful in executing it.

We'll have to see how things actually pan out in these early states and see if likely victories there give Romney the momentum he's counting on to propel him to the nomination.  
Romney has my vote. Romney, I feel Is not only going to win the Iowa Primary, but Michigan as well! He is the only one who can beat Clinton next November.
Bobby in Hudson, what faith are you? if any, do you know any mormons? cause if you did you would change  your mind that is of course if you have an open mind. And as for a cult if where a cult it would be the longest running cult in the world.
At his current burn rate per non binding vote to date he's gonna need a few more trillion to buy this election...and stop flip floppin at every whistle stop, we know the bushies hate that
Uh, remember Romney's dad ran and lost....
Hillary's the best choice! Who else would you want fighing Osama and the rest of the rags but a post menapausal woman with hot flashes!
I find it funny that the first posts are from two staunch Clinton supporters and thus partisan democrats.  I'm not directing this at those posters; although, it is ironic that Realityville, Kansas exists nowhere else besides Tuck's imagination.  Rather, I am curious as to why partisan democrats and everybody else for that matters insists on attacking a candidate based on religion as opposed to viewpoints.  I have a general viewpoint of liberals as being more accepting of peoples’ differences, something that has always seemed more moral to me.  The Church of Mormon does no longer condone polygyny like any faith/group of people has its skeletons.  I guess it’s okay, if the statement attacks a Christian religion.  Or is it okay for people to tell lies about candidates they dislike, obviously its legal?

Romney has one wife Ann or Anne, who in appearance have a marriage worth emulating.  And Giuliani’s cross-dressing.  Granted, I don’t like him, but I would never ‘attack’ him over the matter, because there is plenty else.  And he did it for humor, SNL or parties, and it’s not like he was walking around the mayor’s office in panties.  Cross-dressing has been funny since long before Shakespeare.  I would think that liberals would hold up these diversity as a good think, rather than attack it.  I guess partisan democrats really don’t believe what they preach, and that really is a shame.
Of course the bias of MSNBC will not give press to Ron Paul, but if you would like to see what he could offer, please tune into Jay Leno's Tonight Show tomorrow the 30th.  No matter what you've heard or currently think of him, you owe it to yourself to select the best candidate for the Republican nomination.
The University of Iowa poll is a joke. As an alum I was embarrassed the methodology used to conduct the poll. Thank God my undergraduate degree was in Business, and not in poli-sci, if this poll is reflective of the Poli-Sci dept.

1. UI purchased a list of 35,000 random Iowa households.

2. This wasn't even a list of registered voters!

3. To "compensate for the prevalence of female respondents in past surveys the interviewers screened potential respondents by gender..., They first asked to speak to the youngest male at home who was 18 years of age or older and a registered voter. If no male was present, the interviewer asked to speak with the oldest female at home who was 18 years of age or older and a registered voter. "  There past polls wouldn't have too many women if they didn't purchase data that would normally used by an ad company to test consumer product response!

4. 70% of the household contacted refused to participate in the poll. According to the "methodological details" the students conducting the polls " reached 6,179 individuals."  and 4,302 those reached refused to participate.

5. Of the 1877 who didn' refuse to participate, only 36% qualified for the poll.

6. "Caucus-goers" were "self-identified." Anyone who didn't say "they were certain they wouldn't attend" the caucus was included as a likely caucus goers.

7. likely "Caucus-goers" included people who said it was some what likely, and not very likely they'd attend.

8. They had to eliminate 8% of the people they identified (based upon their self-identification)as "likely caucus goers" because these people couldn't even say whether they'd go to the GOP or Democratic caucus!

9. 33.1% of their likely caucus goers are independents. While they can register at the caucus as a Democrat or GOP at the caucus, given caucus attendance has never reached 21% of registered Democrats, the likelihood that 33.1% of independents will attend a GOP or Dem caucus is a joke.


I don't doubt that Romney has increased his lead he's the only GOP running ads, but First Read and Washington pundits should actually look at the poll data before they report on it as if it has merit! Even someone unfamiliar with Iowa's caucus system could immediately see the poll is garbage in garbage out.



LDS is not a cult my friends.  I'm an atheist myself but the main thing I like about the Mormon religion is that it is American centric.  You people worship your lunatics from the Middle East.  The mormons have the right idea.  Jesus was over here in America smoking the peace pipe with the Indians.
Romney has my vote 110%. There is something, dignified, honest and powerful about him. Non-Washington. I don't care what his religion is, except that he is non-wavering in it. The day he casts it aside for political gain is the day he loses my vote.
If he were truly the flip flopper some would like to label him as, way has he not flopped on his religion which seems to be his only fault.
I more I have read about his life, the more truly impressed I am.  His life speaks volumes of his character and abilities to do what he says he will do, and his commitment to serve his fellowman. I guarantee that he has given more of his time and talents (not to mention money) without compensation or even expectations of compensations than any other candidate from either party.  

Go Romney!!!! We love you!
People are finally starting to relize that it would be a mistake to pass up nominating Mr. Romney. A candidate as exceptional as Romney only comes around ever half-century or so and it would be a mistake not to elect him....America is in trouble and he is best suited to lead this country in these troubled times.
Domenico,
The same poll you reffered to also showed Senator Obama is is statistical dead heat with Senator Clinton.
Don't find it worth mentioning??!!!!!
Arshad, if you click on the link over "this morning," you find the Democratic side of the poll results. Included is the following: The poll "shows that Iowa is a dead heat for the top Democrats. Clinton is at 28.9%; Obama is at 26.6%; and Edwards is at 20%."

Again, thank you for the comment. As always, we appreciate the feedback.
Those that meet Mitt in person are always impressed.
One even said it felt like meeting George Washington.
This is a guy that can ACCOMPLISH things, and not get bogged down and simply maintain the status quo.

Mitt is exactly what we need right now.
It is absolutely disgusting to see how many religious bigots comment here.  The comments they make are not funny, totally ignorant, and abysmally stupid.  I cannot believe that people do not take the time to educate themselves and think that by saying something ignorant about Mormons that it is 'smart', 'witty' and 'cool'.  

I am not a Mormon but spent last summer near Salt Lake City as a camp ground host.  Of course most of the campers we had were probably Mormons (they do not wear little patches like the Star of David ones the Jews wore in Germany in the 1930's and 40's as the bigots here would like them to) and everyone, and I mean everyone, was just great.  The kids were extremely well-behaved and polite. Same way in all the stores and attractions around Salt Lake City.  If Mormonism causes people to be considerate, generous, and polite we all should join up especially the rude bigots here.  It is not a cult, just a form of religion that we are not accustomed to.  All religions have practices and beliefs that seem weird to non-believers.  That doesn't give anyone the right to make fun of or denigrate the religion or its followers.  
Give Ron Paul a fair shake!!! Look at the straw polls!

Ron Paul's Head-to-Head Records (Win-Lose-Tie):
Ron Paul v. Rudy Giuliani 32-5-0
Ron Paul v. Mitt Romney 24-13-0
Ron Paul v. Fred Thompson 22-14-0
Ron Paul v. John McCain 33-3-0
Ron Paul v. Mike Huckabee 30-5-1
Ron Paul v. Sam Brownback 33-2-1
Ron Paul v. Tom Tancredo 34-1-0
Ron Paul v. Duncan Hunter 33-2-0
What a bunch of ignorant bigots you all are!  "The Church of Mormon?"  "Cult?"  Give me a break--go educate yourselves before you start slamming a religion you know nothing about.  Evaluate Mitt on the merits of what he can bring to the office, not on what the preacher down the street said about the Mormons last Sunday.
Romeny is the best qualified candidate by far.  

Post ten, er, make that five so it is easier, accomplishments of any of the candidates other than Rudy and maybe Huckabee, who had real jobs, that do not include the wishy-washy terms like "fought for" (my personal favorite), "led", "voted for", etc. that candidates love to puff up their resumes with.

Most of these people haven't done one solid thing in their lives where they have actually run anything.  Bill Clinton had to work five or six years before he became a functioning president because the only thing he ran was Arkansas and Ross Perot said running Arkansas was about the same as running a Wal-Mart.  Hillary's experience in the WH is about the same as a low-level staffer or maybe, after the healthcare fiasco, a maid.  Gore was Clinton's go-to-guy.

Looking at resumes alone you can see that Romney is experienced. And he is running a first rate campaign.
It is amazing that people will continue to vote for the richest candidate running without thinking twice about the nominee's intentions or why he flip-flops on his positions constantly. Have people forgotten about principled men? Why do we reward power hungry politicians who lust for power and greed? WAKE UP ROMNEY SUPPORTERS, THIS GUY IS A FAKE.
Just to follow up one of the first bloggers....I am a right wing conservative Christian who feels that Mitt Romney would make a fantastic president.  Go MITT!  
This message is for pat huntington of ny

You just want to demean Mit Romney by saying he is married to a number of women. I know that out of the presidential candidates, he is one of the few that have been married only once.  
The story of Mormon, with the disappearing gold manuscript is about the sorriest story I've ever heard.

Why would God need gold pages? Because the money-grubbers wouldn't pay any attention to a divine spiral bound notebook? What does God care about gold? Stone was good enough for Moses - he didn't need some shiny attention-getter.

Take that ridiculous story and sell it to the People's Temple.
Mitt happens!! Get over it, he is the best canidate. He is the most experienced and is not a DC insider like the rest.
Mark from Des moines
Thanks for the good information on the poll.
To everyone else, remember all information is manipulated in some manner, the question you should always ask is Who Benefits?
As a moderate, a Democrat and a future Hillary voter, I will say--and have been saying for months--that Romney will win the nomination.  It's all about his campaign machine.  Hillary's, too.  So, let's see, Romney-Huckabee vs. Clinton-Obama.  Huckabee to neutralize the Mormon issue, Obama to add life to the ticket.

I might add, a Romney administration DOES NOT scare me at all.
Mitt is a phony, Mitt is a Lie.
Mitt is a spoiled rich kid who was sent off to France to Mission for LDS.  No war or military service for the Mitt. God before country and fake it for God and fake it for country.
He was a fake Governor and would be a fake president.
HE IS
Mitt is a phony, Mitt is a Lie. Shit happens!
Mitt is a spoiled rich kid who was sent off to France to Mission for LDS.  No war or military service for the Mitt. God before country and fake it for God and fake it for country.
He was a fake Governor and would be a fake president.
HE IS
Bridge for sale!, what does Mormon, Catholic, Buddhist, Muslim, or Christian theology have to do with politics, Nothing.  What matters are the values that Mitt Romney or any other candidate brings to the table and Mitt has them in spades.

P.S. if you are going to make an argument against Mormon doctrine based on “The Lost Manuscript Story” at least try to get it right.  The Gold plates were not lost.  The translation of the first book contained in the plates, consisting of 115 pages of manuscript, were lost.  

Please take the necessary time to construct a well thought out and factual argument if you insist on making theological arguments, not that it is relevant in political discourse anyway.  You are not helping anyone, least of all yourself, by doing otherwise.
Just to point out, of all the leading republican candidates, Mitt Romeny is the ONLY one to have been married to one woman.
I find it sickly amusing that this country was founded in an effort to escape religious intolerance, but alas here we stand again in the same spot, ignorantly casting lies about others because of what they believe in, even if it is wholesome and good.  

Somehow we continue to fear what we don't understand.  

Out of the major candidates for the republican nomination, Romney the mormon is the only one that hasn't had multiple wives.  Guliani, McCain, Thompson, and even Gingrich have all had multiple wives.  As far as everybody always calling him a flip flopper.  During his years in public service he has always been against abortion.  If you want to talk flip flopping, when Hillary decided to get into politics she first was looking at the republican side then switched.  At least when Romney changes his views he changes them to the correct views.  And then about the Gold Plates story with Mormon history.  There have been many many different findings around the world where people have used metal to engrave what they are writing.  
Well, if you really study mormonism, it's roots to present day, you will find it disgusting. If your a Christian, you have more in common with a moslem than a mormon. Really dig people, you will become sick.
Wow! I can't belive that there are so many bigots that continue to claim that Mormons are a "cult." What's worse are people using their small to non-existenet knowledge of Mormonism to judge a potential presidential candidate.

I've known a few Mormons in my time, and they are good people. But that's neither here nor there. The point is what you think of Mitt Romney's political stances and ideology.
I am a conservative, Southern Baptist, from the south and Mitt has my support along with all the leaders in my small town of 20,000 people.  

Mitt is the candidate of small town America and he will be the republican nominee and the next President!
Romney is the man.  Mormons are a great people with a great religion.
The Book of Mormon was written by ancient prophets on the Americas between 600 B.C. and 400 A.D.  It was written on golden plates to preserve it for our day.  It has nothing to do with its value.  
It is really funny how these thickheaded Hillary bashers will applaude at anything. It does not matter who leads in Iowa. It could be Romney, Obama,
Guiliani, Edwards, Paul, McCain or otherwise, nobody
will even come close to Hillary in November 2008. How
long these crusaders continue to waste money and time
running as wannabees for president is churning my stomach. Hillary could spank any candidate in America
including Gore. I am glad she is a Democrat and not a
Republican. She would still win by a large margin in any party. Dont you get it?
Lately, First Lady Bush is sharpening her foreign policy speech. Expect her to make a surprise entry into the race due the the win in Argentina by that First Lady, or even Jeb Bush. Does not matter. Hillary will kick any or all candidates. It does not
matter who is in the race! Get it! Haters, brace for
nine years of Hillary. Just remember how the haters gobbled up her book and it became a bestseller. Same
thing with the presidential election. Haters will put her over the top.
The fact is that the only true Church of Jesus Christ has been restored on the earth. It is not called the "Church of Mormon."  It is called the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints. It has 13,000,000 members and 60,000 full-time missionaries taking the true gospel to people all around the world. Mitt Romney would be one of the finest Presidents that this country has ever had. If righteousness prevails, he will be elected.


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