First thoughts: The one-year mark
Posted: Monday, November 05, 2007 9:31 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
*** One year out: With this week being the one-year mark before the 2008 election, there’s a lot of national campaign coverage, as this weekend's Newsweek, New York Times, AP profiles, and Washington Post all proved. Given that the candidates and the media have been sprinting since January 2007, a year away seems like an eternity, doesn’t it? Then again, we're now less than 60 days from Iowa. Today really is the equivalent of Labor Day in an election year, when the focus gets going big time, just two months before the actual election.
*** Pakistan returns: The upheaval in Pakistan is a good reminder that we shouldn’t predict how foreign policy will impact the 2008 election. Three months ago, many were convinced Iraq would be the top foreign policy issue. Three weeks ago, those same folks were pondering the power of Iran. Now it’s Pakistan. It should be noted that at the last Democratic debate, the candidate who pro-actively brought up Pakistan -- over Iran -- as a major foreign policy challenge was Biden. And he made sure Iowans knew over the weekend that he'd be personally speaking with Pervez Musharraf later today.
*** Is the Penn mightier than the sword? Mark Penn pens one of these over-served campaign memos (we're sure Obama or Edwards will respond in kind), using the new Newsweek and Washington Post/ABC polls as evidence that Clinton wasn't hurt at all by last week’s debate. "The bottom line is that the data in the wake of the last debate reveals that Hillary remains strong in the face of these attacks while the other candidates are being viewed in an increasingly negative light. We may be seeing the beginnings of a boomerang effect on Obama and Edwards." Indeed, Obama did suffer a small downtick in the Post/ABC polls. But, overall, Obama still sports a better FAV/UNFAV ratio than Clinton and Edwards (50-46% for Clinton, 49-35% for Edwards, and 51-36% for Obama). Most importantly, though, is the damage last week's debate and Edwards/Obama have done to Clinton if she does become the nominee. There are too many Democrats on record asking for the release of her library records. The RNC has a ton of material to tap into, and it will likely mean -- if she's the nominee -- that some giant document dump is going to happen.
*** Cha-cha-changes: Who is the change candidate in the GOP field? Watching Thompson on Meet the Press yesterday, one got the sense he isn't going to be running as a change candidate should he become the nominee. Giuliani, as far as foreign policy is concerned, isn't going to be the change candidate from Bush either, although one can argue that his liberal/moderate reputation on social issues will make him seem more like change than what he's actually advocating. That seems to leave McCain (who spent much of the first half of his campaign trying to emulate Bush, but is now tacking back to McCain '00) and Romney (who may have the best "change" resume of the major GOP candidates and is the one advertising on "change" more than any other GOP candidate right now). Given that in the most recent NBC/WSJ poll, nearly a majority of Republicans were seeking a "different approach" from Bush, a change message appears to be the one all of the candidates will have to emphasize at some point.
*** We’re going to party like it’s … 1984: McGovern and Mondale are in Clinton's corner. Is that a good thing? One of the historical references some like to apply to Clinton is that of Mondale in 1984, who was as inevitable as Clinton is now -- but barely hung on to get the nomination after a very long delegate fight with Gary Hart, a candidate who was arguing that it was time for a new generation of leaders. Speaking of 1984… Geraldine Ferraro and another leading women's rights advocate, Eleanor Smeal, appear to leading the charge on continuing to play up the gender issue from last week's debate. Ferraro said the attacks were an example of sexism and Smeal compared the debate to the Anita Hill hearings. Clinton herself has backed away from the gender stuff, but with supporters continuing to feed that storyline, it's not likely to go away anytime soon. And that is exactly what the Clinton camp wants, right? Would their surrogates be making such MAJOR statements if the campaign really wanted this tamped down?
*** Election Day: Tuesday is Election Day in quite a few states, with Kentucky and Mississippi holding the highest profile contests, as those two states' GOP incumbent governors are seeking re-election. Haley Barbour appears to be in good shape to secure a second term in Mississippi. But thanks to scandal, Democrats are heavily favored to win back the Kentucky governor's mansion. The only "trend" spotting elections may be taking place in Virginia, where Democrats are looking to see if they can continue their growth trend by picking up seats in the state legislature and possibly taking control of the state Senate. Should they pull this off, it will be more proof that Virginia is likely going to be hotly contested in the presidential. By the way, keep an eye on the immigration issue in Virginia. If Republicans hold the state Senate, immigration will be credited with the comeback.
*** Big day in Iowa: With two months until the caucuses there, it’s a big day in Iowa. Edwards is giving what his campaign bills as a major address on Iraq and Iran. He will say, according to excerpts: “Senator Clinton is voting like a hawk in Washington, while talking like a dove in Iowa and New Hampshire. One of her advisers told the New York Times that was because she was shifting from primary mode to general election mode. Well, we only need one mode from our president -- tell the truth mode all the time.” Clinton is also in the Hawkeye State, where she will deliver a speech on clean energy, NBC/National Journal’s Athena Jones reports. It is the first of four speeches she will give on the topic in the coming days.
*** Bio talk: In addition, five presidential candidates -- Biden, Dodd, Edwards, Kucinich, and McCain -- will appear at Iowa State University tonight for a forum on bio-based industries. Per NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann, they will each speak for 15 minutes, and then will individually address questions from the forum's organizers. So look for the candidates to address agriculture and education along with bio-economic issues like corn and cellulosic ethanol production.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere, Biden -- like almost everyone else today -- is in Iowa, where he discusses rural access to the internet and lunches with veterans; Giuliani is in New Hampshire; Huckabee gives a speech at Williamson Christian College in Nashville, TN; McCain stumps all day in Iowa; Obama attends a fundraising event in Sarasota, FL; Richardson is in Iowa; Romney addresses a Federalist Society forum in Fort Lauderdale, FL; and Thompson campaigns in New Hampshire. Also, Bill Clinton attends a rally for his wife at the Andre Agassi College Preparatory Academy in Las Vegas.
Countdown to Election Day 2007: 1 day
Countdown to Iowa: 59 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 64 days
Countdown to Michigan: 71 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 75 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 82 days
Countdown to Florida: 85 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 92 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 365 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 442 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
