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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Down the ballot: Dem victory in VA

Posted: Wednesday, November 07, 2007 9:02 AM by Domenico Montanaro

Virginia Democrats won control last night of the state Senate. And while the Republicans held onto the state House, Democrats picked up seats there too. The Washington Post: “The Democratic gains offered further evidence of a closely divided electorate as both parties gear up for next year's presidential and U.S. Senate races. Although Democrats made advances in rapidly changing, diversifying Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads, the GOP held on to several Senate seats in more rural parts of the state.”

Another Washington Post piece notes that the Virginia GOP campaign against illegal immigration didn’t quite work. “Voters across Virginia chose candidates in state and local elections yesterday not out of anger over illegal immigration but based on party affiliation, a preference for moderation and strong views on such key issues as residential growth and traffic congestion. With a few notable exceptions, the trend benefited Democrats and not those who campaigned the loudest for tough sanctions against illegal immigrants.”

In Kentucky, challenger Steve Beshear (D) defeated incumbent Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R) in a rout, 59%-41%. The Lexington Herald-Leader writes, “The first Republican governor since 1971, Fletcher struggled to rebound from the political fallout of the state hiring investigation that led to indictments and pardons before being settled in a 2006 agreement with prosecutors. As a result, he saw a reversal of his 10-point election victory in 2003.”

In Mississippi, meanwhile, incumbent Gov. Haley Barbour (R) cruised to re-election over challenger John Arthur Eaves Jr. (D). With 98% of precincts reporting, the Jackson Clarion Ledger says, Barbour bested Eaves, 58%-42%. “Some political observers had predicted a wider margin of victory for Barbour, who won praise for his response to Katrina and touted economic development successes such as a Toyota manufacturing plant… Some wonder whether Barbour will serve another full, four-year term. A former lobbyist and chairman of the Republican National Committee, he has been mentioned as a possible vice presidential running mate -- if Republican presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani ends up on the ballot next November.”

In New York, state Democrats are declaring "victory" of sorts by proclaiming that Gov. Spitzer’s controversial plan for drivers' licenses for illegal immigrants didn't do damage to Democratic state legislative incumbents last night. "In most of those areas where Mr. Spitzer’s licensing proposal moved to the forefront of the campaign, Democrats were able to cauterize the issue by publicly breaking with the governor, harshly criticizing the plan and in some cases threatening to join lawsuits challenging it."

New Jersey voters rejected a Gov. Corzine-backed ballot measure that would have permitted the state to borrow $450 million for stem cell research. "Supporters had argued that the borrowing would help pay for research that could help deliver New Jersey from financial distress by bringing additional tax revenue and tens of thousands of jobs to the state. Critics, by contrast, said that New Jersey could not afford to add to the state’s surging debt load of $30 billion."

One of the upsets of the night was in Indianapolis, IN, where a two-term Democratic mayor, Bart Peterson, was ousted by a Republican who was outspent by a 10-1 margin! The Republican who won, Greg Ballard, apparently capitalized on public anger over local tax increases as well as a rise in the city's crime rate.

And ever wonder what it would take to get younger folks to the polls? Threaten to take their bar privileges away. Seriously. In Iowa City, IA, there was an ordinance on the ballot that if it passed would have prevented bars from allowing any adults under 21. The ordinance didn't pass and bars can continue to allow adults 19 and older into their watering holes.

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In another important elections, Utah voters rejected school vouchers, and the MS Governor was comfortably reelected: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/11/election-results-democrats-pick-up.html
New Jersey has $30 billion worth of debt?????
No wonder everyone is moving out....
Probably liberal taxes that don't do anything for the people....
It costs $3 billion a year to finance the debt.....
typical liberal state.....
and then some morons decide to increase the debt....
figures....

People in New York are so liberalized anyway, it is hard to believe they would vote out their own democrats.

This guy is Kentucky favors gambling.....
let's see him sneak that past the church and god fearing people....
Local issues will resonate further in the election next year. The big issues tied to the small issues speak of CHANGE. Change works for the party that has not been in control.
I had to laugh when I heard that Ernie had the ten commandments put up before the election, symbol over substance, worked once, will not work this time. OH OH, better get some issues on the table, or else!!
Illegal immigration is still a local issue for many parts of the country. Repubs could make it a national issue if they have more than a wall to propose how to deal with the issue.
Of couse that would mean changing political srategy, SUBSTANCE beats SYMBOL this time around.
The racist haters of illegals couldn't scare people in VA enough with visions of The Brown Horde, Virginians just voted whtat was in their interests, so they voted Dem.  The guy in KY coudn't pull votes in even with The Big Ten No-Nos, people weren't fooled.  Go Dems!!
Go Dems!  No one in Va was fooled by the scare-talk about illegals, and no one in KY was fooled by the !) Big No-Nos.  They rightly saw the Dem party as having their interests at heart.
Jerry you are beginning to sound desparate again .... the red states (VA) are becoming blue ...what will Jerry do???
The most powerless and ignorant governor in the USA is Rick Perry of Texas ...
The most powerless and ignorant governor in the USA is Rick Perry of Texas ...
What a concept! Voters are actually voting about issues that matters instead of demagoguery that Republicans up to 06 were using like gay marriages and using 911 (Guiliani hint) to instill fear mongering ala illegal immigrations and yeah Democrates raise taxes and the Republicans are fiscal conservatives; only the die hard  apologists believes that CON.
Karen Schultz has herself to blame for the loss. More than a few Democratic voters refused to support Schultz in her race against Republican Jill Holtzman Vogel.

You see, Schultz ran attack ads against Holtman Vogel because her opponent's hubby represented a firm that advocates on behalf of immigrants.

Out of 50,535 votes, Schultz lost by 762 votes.  Which serves to prove the old dictum that given a choice, voters will choose the real Republican over Republican-lite, is true.
They rightly saw the Dem party as having their interests at heart.
Class Warrior, D.C (Sent Wednesday, November 07, 2007 10:29 AM)

People in Louisiana thought that too.....
Then Katrina showed up.....
couldn't take care of themselves.......
went back to the GOP......

I'm sure other states will realize their mistake at some point and come back to the GOP.
considering we have a lot of people leaving Virgina and coming to Texas and realizing they are saving more money by doing so, is more then enough reason why Virgina is no longer for lovers.
VA is turning blue up north. The rest of VA is red. I'm tired of people not from VA trying to dictate to our state how we should vote. With as much money the DCCC spends in our state to distort, Im surprised the whole damn legislature wasnt bought and paid for. What a bad move. This state is influenced by outsiders. That is why I'm moving to Texas next year. Cost of living is cheaper, no state taxes, red-state, etc.
Oh you repubs are such losers!!!  You lost big last year, you lost big this year.  You tried every stupid "fool-the-voter" trick in your worn-out play book--i.e. immigrant bashing, gay bashing, religious extremism, dirty campaign tricks, etc. and none of it worked.  Virginia is waking up to republican incompetence, greed, and outright thievery.  So, Gene, is going to move to Texas, where hate still rules.  Maybe he should get their bumpersticker: "Texas is for Haters".  Note: It also comes in T-Shirts.

Some of the other standard and sleeeezy repub campaign tactics also failed.  In Kentucky they ran thousands of illegal faked phone calls supposedly from a gay rights organizaion promoting the democrat.  Result: the democrat beat the repub incumbent by 20%--a stunning repudiation.  Now the newly ex-governor can face charges of election fraud.

In Virginia repub Congressman Tom Davis's wife, the incumbent repub state senator, published the address, names and schools of her democratic opponent's children, saying "they were fair game".  She also sent out a sleezy homophobic mailer.  Davis poured in hundreds of thousands of dollars from his congressional campaign fund to help her.  On the night of the election the honorable congressman ran into the mother of his wife's opponent outside a polling place, got into her face and started screaming.  What was said was overheard.  He started by saying "I see you dumped another ten grand into your son's race".  She responded with, "That's nothing compared to the thousands you put into your wife's campaign.".  Then he screamed, "That wasn't my money--That was other people's money!".  He then stormed off.  Oh, and his wife, the incumbent repub lost by ten percent, throwing the senate to the democrats.  Now, Davis is looking at his own seat, and his own disgraceful behavior.  He sits on Henry Waxman's committee as the vice chair, head of the repub MINORITY.  Every week Waxman has some brilliant putdown for idiotic Davis.   Now, I doubt if he runs for reelection; and if he does, he will have to wage the campaign of his life, and then lose to the democrats in his democratic leaning district.  Good riddance.
J.D. :How in the hell do you know what is going on in Virginia? All that hear-say BS. You need to stick to liberal CA politics. With all of the issues associated with that cess pool you should shut up. BTW when Cali breaks off into the water, dont forget to hold your breath.
Anybody who calls Henry Waxman brilliant really needs to get outside more often......
All of the usual pundits are wrong on this issue. [as they were when they realized that Dems such as Webb of Virginia and Tester of Montana were not about to toe the party line when they were elected,turning back one liberal proposal after another,infuriating the leftwing].
            So now. The press plays up the former Kentucky goverors fondness for the Decologue less than it does his corruption,thus observing that ''change''candidates led the way in these states. More importantly,the perception that these are somehow ''proillegal''candidates utilizing that platform is absurd. More Americans than ever are angry with politicians over illegal immigration including Democrats. Indeed,illegal immigration is seen as a greater Democrat liability[see:Hillarys waffling-after-a-week on the subject],than it is for the GOP. Hence the efforts of ''Blue Dog''Democrats who are more dependable to the fortunes of the GOP on such issues than their own moderates[Snowe,Chafee,Shays],ever were. The Democrats second vital weakness is their allegiance to pork,which the GOP is using as a cudgel with which to pound House Democrats especially. [over at GOOGLE EARTH,PORKBUSTERS has added a nifty device that superimposes wasteful porkbarrel projects over a map of North America. The eye instantly captures huge pods of spending clustered  in Pelosis Frisco Bay Area,Feinstein/Boxers LA ,Murthas Pennsylvania,Byrds West Virginia,Schumer and Clintons New York,Inouyes Hawaii,and New England which is obscured beneath the cloudcover of the pork clusters].
                Thus these states,like traffic signals,will change colour according to the voters whim and the effectiveness of leadership eminating from their parties elected representatives on key issues divorced from even Iraq.[Energy,the economy and illegal immigration are or have already supplanted Iraq in several key polls conducted by GALLUP,RASMUSSEN and others]. Obviously,there has been lackluster leadership in all of these key areas by both parties save illegal immigreation on the part of the GOP].

Also see:POLITICO www.politico.com
Contrary to what some still seem to not get. Iraq is not going to be the issue in 2008. You can keep thinking that if you like. Immigration is going to play a huge role in the next election. Why do you think candidates dance around it. It was ok as long as it was Texas, California, Nevada, Arizona, Florida but low and behold when it became Minnesota, Michigan, Delaware, Mass, etc. problem. Now that it has become point blank...a Democrat problem....it has to be dealt with.
I finnally saw jerry's doppleganger, the guy who moved from VA, I didn't believe it till I saw it. Jerry go walk the dog for an hour before you post in your different voice. It would make us work harder to find out what your up to, A good repub covers their tracks and blames Scooter or someone not so important.
many states are changing, people move to where the jobs are going, down south out west, that means politics move, remember what RONNIE said, vote with your feet. I don't believe a person would move that far from home for the tax base, and the politics, seems too contrived to me. VA has good schools, good neiborhoods, good laws, does this unreal person not think of his family when he pulls up stacks? This person is not real or he was forced to move by the company.
John: 1. My name is not Jerry or whomever your talking about. I'm moving just for the reasons I mentioned. My kids are grown and my wife goes where I go.
2. I am a retired military man that works for the goverment. I transfer when feasible.
3. What do you know about the schools here? These schools are not that great and the taxes are through the roof.
4. As I stated before. If your not from VA, stay out of our politics.
Doh! Most of the Dem winners were against illegal immigration themselves.  In some cases they have a proven record of voting and acting that way.

Loudon county, I am not sure about the rest of Virginia opens voting to all residents in these elections.  That doesn't happen in 2008 - then its supposedly only citizens.


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