First thoughts: Progress vs. protection
Posted: Thursday, November 08, 2007 9:14 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** Progress vs. protection: One of the most striking findings in the latest NBC/WSJ poll is just how angry Americans -- Democrats, Republicans, and independents -- are, and how much they want change. Just 21% believe the country is on the right track, only 31% approve of Bush’s job, and a whopping 74% say they want the next president to take a different approach than Bush. All this sounds like the 2008 election is shaping up as a slam-dunk for the Democrats, right? Not so fast. While Americans want change, they appear to have differing opinions of what that means. In the poll, 51% said they want the next president to focus on progress and help move the country forward, compared with 44% who said they want a president to focus on protecting what has made America great. Interestingly, says NBC/WSJ pollster Peter Hart (D), the split here falls under normal partisan lines: The “progress” folks tend to be Democratic-leaning subgroups (African Americans, liberals, people under 35, independents), while the “protection” people tend to lean Republican (conservatives, evangelicals, people over 65). The result here is still an advantage for the Dems, but not as big as their lead in the generic presidential ballot suggests (50%-35%). It's a good preview of just how each party's nominee may attempt to run, and it may explain -- at least on the GOP side -- why a guy like Giuliani (i.e., Mr. Protector) is doing so well.
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Hillary, Rudy maintain leads; Fred drops: Looking at the Democratic presidential field, Hart and NBC/WSJ co-pollster Bill McInturff (R) say that it would be incorrect to note from this survey that Clinton is in trouble after her recent debate performance. But it would be equally wrong, they add, to suggest she’s headed to a coronation. Clinton leads Obama, 47%-25%, which is virtually unchanged from September. Edwards comes in third at 11%, which is a five-point drop for him and his lowest number all year. All three Democrats lead Giuliani in a hypothetical general election match-up, but it’s within the poll’s margin of error (46%-45% for Clinton; 44%-42% for Obama; and 45%-44% for Edwards). Meanwhile, Giuliani leads the GOP field with 33% --
followed by McCain at 16%, Thompson at 15%, and Romney at 11%. Thompson, in fact, dropped eight points since September, while Huckabee gained four points (from 4% in September to 8% now).
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Circa 1968? Looking more closely at Clinton’s numbers in the new NBC/WSJ, Hart says: “Hillary Clinton is really Richard Nixon, circa 1968” -- which is something we’ve also alluded to in the past. Of course, this ISN'T saying that her Administration will orchestrate the break-in of a popular building. Rather, it’s saying that she’s respected for her knowledge and experience (76% of Democrats and 51% of all adults give her high marks on this attribute), while also viewed as a polarizing figure due to her past (only 49% of Democrats and 34% of all adults see her as likeable). Moreover, she has a net-negative on the feeling thermometer (43% fav/44% unfav) versus Obama’s (43%-24%) and Edwards’ (37%-31%) net-positives. “At this stage, she has a magnificent tailwind” given the Democrats’ structural advantages, Hart adds. “But against that, she has an exceptionally polarizing image.” However, do remember that Richard Nixon won two terms…
*** Do Republicans really want a three-way race? Hillary also seems to benefit if there’s a third-party candidacy. A three-way Clinton-Giuliani-Pat Buchanan contest is 44%-35%-12%. What that tells McInturff is that an anti-abortion third-party candidate has the capacity to shift a large portion of voters away from the GOP. (Note: Pat's not running; he just had the best known profile of someone running to Rudy's right, so we tested him.) Meanwhile, a Clinton-Giuliani-Bloomberg match-up breaks 42%-39%-10%, which is closer for the GOP but still not as close as a Rudy-Hillary head-to-head. As Hart puts it, Clinton benefits if there’s a third-party candidate, because that person splits the anti-Hillary vote.
*** When voters attack: Congress’ approval rating is at 19%, and that’s largely fueled by independents’ increasing disapproval. Per Hart, “This says to Democratic leaders, ‘You are not communicating. And you are not communicating with independents.’” That said, Democrats still enjoy a nine-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot (46%-37%). But just 39% of respondents believe their OWN member of Congress deserves re-election; 51% say it’s time to give someone new a chance. That's a staggering number, folks. “I believe that we are facing as angry and unstable an electorate as I’ve seen in my career, McInturff says. And when that happens: “A lot of straight-line projections we thought will happen will not happen.”
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The Bernie Kerik hurdle: So far, Giuliani has cleared some important hurdles -- speaking to the NRA, addressing the Values Voter Summit -- that analysts thought he’d trip over, although he cleared them largely by just showing up. Now comes Bernie Kerik’s upcoming indictment, which could be announced on Friday. If Rudy emerges unscathed from this, what else is there to stop him on his way to the GOP nomination? One person who wants to stand in his way is Romney, whose poll numbers are on the way up in South Carolina (something that's largely been under the radar lately). Is a situation emerging where Giuliani is getting stronger and stronger nationally, while Romney is making a move in the one early nominating contest that has been his weakest state?
*** On the trail: Biden, in New Hampshire, delivers a major policy address on Pakistan; Clinton is also in New Hampshire, where she attends an energy and environment roundtable; Giuliani campaigns in Iowa and then head to Las Vegas; Huckabee is in Iowa and Michigan; McCain stumps in McCain and then raises money in Chicago; Obama campaigns in Iowa; Richardson is in New Hampshire; Romney fundraises in New Canaan, CT; and Thompson hits a fundraiser and concert with country music star John Rich of Big and Rich.
Countdown to Iowa: 56 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 61 days
Countdown to Michigan: 68 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 72 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 79 days
Countdown to Florida: 82 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 89 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 362 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 439 days
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