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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



McAuliffe downplays Iowa

Posted: Saturday, November 10, 2007 7:45 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann
DES MOINES, IA -- Clinton fundraiser and adviser Terry McAuliffe downplayed the importance of Iowa during a press conference before the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner here.

"There's not one state that anyone particularly has to win," he said. "Nobody has to win or lose this state. You gotta run a national campaign."

When a reporter brought up the specter of "Swift Boat," he replied that some rival campaigns have gotten "aggressive" and "a bit frisky the last month or two." He insisted that the campaign would stay positive, and reminded reporters of the consequences of going negative in Iowa as evidenced by the campaign in 2003.

On whether Bill Clinton's recent comments on his wife's failed health-care plan helped or hurt the campaign, he said, "I'll let the president speak for himself.” He also added, "Bill Clinton has been a huge asset for this campaign. We're using him extensively this quarter."

He also shrugged off a recent drop in poll numbers. "I've always said this is going to be a long campaign,” McAuliffe said. “It's going to tighten up. I never believed it when the polls had us 35 points up." He added, later, "The closer we get, the tighter it's going to get. We're going to win this thing, but we have a lot of work to do."

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Comments

They must have some polling that does not look good!!!!!
Too late, Terry.  Expectations for Clinton are already too high, and they're not turning back until they land with a thud after Iowa.
yeah right!
Sounds like "lowering expectations" have begun.  From "inevitable" to "Nobody has to win or lose this state." in the span of 30 days.  Amazing!
Hillary just raised the white flag in Iowa.

EDWARDS 08!
Off topic alittle.  the whole jj dinner was going well until this woman got up and is just putting everyone to sleep and keeps staying up there.  zzzzzzzzzz.
Wasn't that wonderful of Bill to take responsibility for the Heathcare proposal debacle?  What a guy!!!  Only took him 14 years to own up to it. It is only a small coincidence that he did it when his wife is running for president. I guess we'll have to call it BillDon'tCareNow instead of HillaryCare. McAuliffe probably has to disinfect himself after talking to Hillary or BIll.

Can these people be any more sleazy?
I think the Clinton's are realizing they have a real fight on their hands and it's coming from Obama. The dinner tonight was a major organizational feat for Team Obama and they won it just like the last one. The speeches tonight showed that by far, Barack Obama gives the best speeches in the field. He's not the best debater, Edward clearly shines in that format, but he can give a speech.

The way the Obama campaign has started to really jell and take off while the Edwards campaign has started to stagnat and slide and the Clinton campaign is starting to trip a bit in the polls. Marist shows Hillary is down in New Hampshire and Obama seems to have sucked up her support.

The race is on and Team Obama seems to be doing really well. They've paced themseleves and played their game really well: the campaign seems to be running on it's own clock and you can feel it watching from the outside.
If Clinton can't win in Iowa, such a small state, how can she win the general election?  She was ahead as long as all that was being considered was name recognition.  The closer people look the more they realize they have a much better option - John Edwards.
Why does this remind me of the Bush administration's constant redefinition of 'success'.  Hillary Clinton is not the first to declare Mission Accomplished too soon, and apparently not the first to have no qualms about constantly spinning losing as winning.
If you read memos from the Clinton campaign from three weeks ago, they spoke about the sizable margin Hillary Clinton had and how she was looking forward to the competition with the GOP - because it was assumed she was going to win.  Conveniently, it seems her campaign is pretending that never happened.
Apparently I wasn't alone in thinking Obama nailed the Jefferson-Jackson speech.  David Yepsen, the top Iowa political journalist seems to agree, and thinks this is the event that will transform the race:

http://blogs.dmregister.com/?p=9887
Barack was wonderful at jj diner.  Hillary can only run against Bush.  Giuliani terrifies her.  Obama pointed out that neither Bush nor his black-sheep cousin(8th) Cheney will be on the ballot.  Barack looked like New Leadership who would Unite All of America.  That's why he is by far the strongest candidate to defeat the Republican in 08.  And if Joe Biden were his VP, he would wipe out the competition on experience also.
The Climton spin machine is churning.
Guess New Hampshire's the next state that isn't important.  Marist poll out this morning shows "Madame President" with a ten point drop.  America's waking up; slowly perhaps, but waking up.  We need change not the same old "beltway b.s.".  Democrats Obama, Edwards, Biden, Dodd and Kuchinch present clear options and whether you agree or not, you've got to give them credit.  

With Hillary, we get 'funny" fundraising, planted questions, flip flops (want a driver's license?) and way too much "lawyerspeak".  Couple that with the Iran vote, refusal to say "I goofed" on Iraq and presto, we have Bush in a pantsuit.
All candidates are saying this.  None of them can really afford to lose Iowa.  
Bill Clinton never said he wife was being swiftboated.   Actually this who brew ha ha over his comments illustrated points that I have been trying to make for the last week or so.  Bill Clinton was trying to make a similar point.  

The Republicans are starting to run their standard playbook against the Democrats and the media is falling back to where it was in 2000, when it swallowed these Republican gimmicks whole, and ran with Republican talking points as if they were facts instead of talking points.

Sadly, Democrats are letting this happen because either we as a group are not paying attention, or because many of us don't care as long as the focus of the attack isn't pointed at the candidate of our choice.



This is a mistake if you think your candidate is going to end up being nominee or if you care that a Democrat is elected to the White House in '08.  We should all be fighting back against the Republicans and the media that all too often does their bidding.  

What Bill Clinton actually said follows:

"The point I'm here to make to you is whoever you're for, this is a really big election. We saw what happened the last seven years when we made decisions in elections based on trivial matters. When we listened to people make snide comments about whether Vice President Gore was too stiff.

"And when they made dishonest claims about the things that he said that he'd done in his life. When that scandalous Swift Boat ad was run against Senator Kerry. When there was an ad that defeated Max Cleland in Georgia, a man that left half his body in Vietnam...

"Why am I saying this?

"Because, I had the feeling that at the end of that last debate we were about to get into cutesy land again. Ya'll raise your hand if you're for illegal immigrants getting a driver's license. So, we then let the Republicans go ahead saying all the Democrats are against the rule of law."

What is Bill trying to get through our skulls with his comments? The fact that Republicans are already running some of their standard plays on us and we are back on our heels letting them do it.  The media isn't going to help us.  

The plays are simple:

1) Make complex issues simple.  Boil them down to yes and no answers or better yet slogans.   When Democrats try to inject complexities call them weak or say they are trying to waffle or be evasive.  When Kerry tried to talk about his war funding vote the Republicans turned it into "he was for it before he was against it."  Out came the flip flops.  Kerry's point was lost.

2) Dehumanize your opponent in order to avoid the substance of their message and make it easier for folks to pile on in an attack.  One way to do this is to focus on mannerisms.  Gore was stiff they said.  Or Hillary Clinton claps too much.  Vicious to silly names taglines can also be attacked to candidates.  The media often buys in, "Is Al Gore too stiff," they will ask in all seriousness.

3) Twist opponent's words to fit a simple 10 second attack that can be repeated over and over in talking points.  "Al Gore invented the internet" is the classic example.  Gore was of course detailing how he has lead in securing funding for the development of the internet.  

This play is also exactly what has been used here on Bill and Hillary Clinton.  "Bill says Hillary was smearboated."  No he didn't.  Some Democrats have been happy to pile on.  The media has dutifully bought in and has run with it.

I urge all of us to fight the Republicans and raise our voices (and fire off a lot of emails) when the media doesn't do its job.  Your candidate or my candidate doesn't matter.  At the end of the day it is going to be the Democratic Presidential nominee and he, or she, is going to have to live through gimmicks employed by the Republicans.
Obama DESTROYED Clinton at the JJ Dinner.  More people.  Louder people.  Better speech.  Naturally, the Clinton camp, which used to love saying how much they're ahead in memos and all the people who love to think Hillary Clinton is just this unstoppable, un-errable machine, will be WRONG.  Hillary Clinton WILL LOSE Iowa.  Her lead in NH just dipped from 20% to 10% in the latest poll just released.  Iowa is no longer a question of first place for Hillary.  It's a question of second or third.  New Hampshire is shaping into the same battle.

“I am running for president because I am sick and tired of Democrats thinking the only way to look tough on national security it talking and acting and voting like George Bush Republicans…
“When I am the nominee of this party, the Republican nominee will not be able to say I voted for the war in Iraq, or that I gave George Bush the benefit of the doubt on Iran, or that I support Bush-Cheney policies of not talking to leaders that we don’t like…
“I don’t want to spend the next year or the next four years refighting the same fights that we had in the 1990s … I don’t want to pit red America against blue America.”- Barack Obama at the JJ Dinner last night.
The Clinton's!
What a team!
We get Bill AND Hillary!
Better than rest, they are the BEST!!
But Diane, you are a woman, I think all ladies should support HRC and label anyone who questions are as either a plant or a male chauvinist. :>)
Nonsense, boring nonsense
John Edwards it the best choice for 2008!

I will vote for Edwards!
Clearly the Clinton campaign is in free fall after the debate performance and misteps since then.

They are trying to lower expectations.  After all the money and inevitability, the truth is that Clinton is not a very good candidate.  The planting of questions and evasives answers in debates exposes her inability to be successful in a real race.  They have to keep her in a bubble of imagery and PR, like Bush.

I am glad we found out now before she was nominated and we were saying, like last time, where did we go wrong.  

How many stiff, non-charismatic candidates do the Democrats want to nominate for president in our new century?  Let's stop at 2.

I think John Edwards is the one who can unite Democrats and independents and won the White House.
Wowza, now there's a statement of denial! Even after sending out the master politician (Bll Clinton)hillary's campaign is still in a freefall resulting from her last debate performance.Actually, he has made thing's worse (imagine thatDiane, you are correct, her speech was NOT inspiring to anyone there, other than her supporter's. MAJOR DISAPOINTMENT!!!!!!!1
The reason Democrats are criticizing Hillary, is that we feel she needs to be taken down, after being built up by the Main Stream Media.  She will be devastated by Giuliani or Romney, so we have to stop her now.  I am a woman, and I don't consider her behavior to be very feminist.  Barack Obama tells the truth and doesn't have a background that will ignite the Right Wing or force Independents to vote Republican.  Most Iowans already agree that Hillary is not the right candidate to represent the Democrats in 08.  Hopefully most Democrats in Iowa will get together by Jan. 3 and Unite behind the person who can bring America together.  Barack Obama.  I welcome Edwards supports who feel stopping Hillary is what is most important.  Edwards would make a great Attorney General.
As a regular contributor who didn't watch the speech, the opinion on this board underscore my point since i have been bloging about the best candidate in the race.

Obama has this race nailed down. All along, i have said the democratic party nomination is more like a marathon and less like a sprint. I also said the person with a better strategy and good message for the future would win the nominee.

Lo and behold, Obama embody the kind of things the democratic party need right now. Enough of text book politics. Barack Obama is going to rock the vote.
Two reasons I've heard to vote for Clinton
1) she's a woman and it would be a great example for our daughters and sons if we had a woman president.

2) Bill will effectively have a third and possibly 4th term as president and we want him to be president again.

I think reason 1) and 2) are in conflict.

I will not vote for HRC
I am a woman, and I would love a female president, BUT I am also an informed voter.  Hillary cannot be trusted for countless of reasons.

Obama's speech last night was incredible.  It was also inspiring to see that his supporters embody his message.  This man can unite men and women from all ages, cultures, races, political parties, and backgrounds.

OBAMA '08
Even the pig farmers hate Hillary.
Dickie Flatts is right, in the end it will be the dems against Bush company inc. and we must come together and defeat them.
I saw 2 seconds of the speeches from last night, the big story this morning on TV is the emotive story of the missing white woman and her suspect husband. Emotions over real news, she is still missing, HMMMMM, I quess when they find her body we will get a full hour of nothing. These stories are getting so repetitive that all you have to do is use the same images and just switch names.
As a regular contributor who didn't watch the speech, the opinion on this board underscore my point since i have been bloging about the best candidate in the race.

Obama has this race nailed down. All along, i have said the democratic party nomination is more like a marathon and less like a sprint. I also said the person with a better strategy and good message for the future would win the nominee.

Lo and behold, Obama embody the kind of things the democratic party need right now. Enough of text book politics. Barack Obama is going to rock the vote.
Bee (Sent Sunday, November 11, 2007 12:24 PM
*****************************************************
All you ever do is spew hate about Hillary and you clog this board with garbage.
H P Boston

All you do is spew adoration for Hillary.. Even if presented with a fact that she is not as perfect as you want her to be, you call those individuals ignorant or stupid..

Bee is entitled to her opinion, and I'd rather hear hers than yours anyday.


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