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Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Saturday's J-J dinner

Posted: Monday, November 12, 2007 9:21 AM by Mark Murray
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There may be no more important judge of Obama's J-J appearance than the Des Moines Register's David Yepsen, and he gave the candidate the clear win. Yepsen predicts that the "the passion he showed should help him close the gap on Hillary Clinton by tipping some undecided" Iowa Dems his way.

And the Obama campaign got the exact type of lead it wanted out of the Washington Post, which pits the Dem contest as a two-person race between Clinton and Obama. "In the space of an hour this weekend, Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York and Barack Obama of Illinois, using some of their most pointed and forceful rhetoric of the campaign, framed the choice for Democrats deciding their party's presidential nomination. Clinton gave a strong speech at the Jefferson-Jackson dinner late Saturday. But Obama, criticized for occasional lackluster performances, delivered one of his most focused and powerful addresses. In the view of many watching, he emerged as the oratorical winner at the biggest Democratic political event in Iowa before the state's January caucuses."

The New York Times: “Neither Mrs. Clinton nor Mr. Obama mentioned the other by name at the dinner. But the subtext of their remarks was apparent to thousands of Iowans who either sat in rapt attention or responded in extravagantly orchestrated displays of cheers, signs and chants. ‘Not answering questions because we’re afraid our answers won’t be popular just won’t do it,’ Mr. Obama said. ‘Triangulating and poll-driven positions because we’re worried about what Mitt or Rudy might say about us just won’t do it.’”

Clinton’s “references to Mr. Obama were some of her most direct attacks on him and reflected the strength that Mr. Obama was showing in polls in this state, though he lags behind her in national polls. ‘We are ready for change,’ Mrs. Clinton said, seizing on a central promise of Mr. Obama’s campaign. ‘Change is just a word if you don’t have the strength and experience to make it happen. We must nominate a nominee who has been tested and elect a president who is ready to lead on Day 1. I know what it’s going to take to win.’”

Yet count Salon's Walter Schapiro among those in the national media who believe Obama finally found his voice on Saturday night -- only to hide that voice on Sunday morning with Tim Russert. "But what a difference eight hours can make. The next morning, Obama appeared for a full-hour interview in another arena of political combat, facing off against Tim Russert on ‘Meet the Press.’ The fiery Obama of Saturday night had been replaced on Sunday morning by a replicant, a tepid candidate mostly concerned with avoiding mistakes rather than winning converts. Early in the interview, Russert ran a clip from Saturday night's speech and challenged Obama to identify precisely who was ‘talking and acting and voting like George Bush Republicans.’ This was Obama's moment of decision -- either up the ante by calling out Hillary, or fold… Obama's lackluster performance with Russert (no hits, though no obvious errors) illustrates a much larger, though still fixable, problem with his campaign. He has displayed an inconsistent, zigzag style that makes it difficult for him to sustain any mood, any argument, any message in his campaign. Every time Obama takes off the gloves, he immediately feels compelled to lace them up again."

And CQ's Craig Crawford was equally impressed with Obama's J-J speech, but wonders if it was too little, too late. "The shortness of time before Iowans vote could be Clinton’s best friend because until recently her rivals have kept fairly quiet about their complaints, allowing her to build a loyal following in the state. The worst thing for Obama about his powerful speech on Saturday is that he might have waited too long to give it."

The Washington Post's Ruth Marcus doesn't quite give Obama the Gore-Kerry J-J  treatment, "But Obama's impressive turnout and impassioned oratory offered the closing highlight of a long night.”

NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann asks: Will going negative -- even it was subtle -- hurt Obama in Iowa? Since 2004, it's been a commandment of caucus politics that Iowans are NICE people who don't like brawling candidates. Clinton advisor Terry McAuliffe invoked the 2004 fallout on Friday when he told reporters that camps that go negative “do it at your peril here in Iowa."

Dann adds that although the speeches on Saturday had their fair share of sound-bitable moments, the real story of the Jefferson Jackson dinner is who brought in the most organizational muscle. Team Obama won the night, hands down, as far as the energy and coordination of their attendees, with the thunder-stick armed Clinton fans a distant second.  The massive organizational effort that went into JJ also underscored the ever-growing divide between moneyed first-tierers and the Bidens and Dodds of the campaign. Their cheering sections were peppy but almost unnoticeable in the sea of red-shirted Obama fans and yellow-clad Clinton supporters. 

On Friday night, in fact, when a sign-decorating competition between all the campaigns turned into an impromptu Obama rally, Dann saw a staffer from a second-tier campaign watching helplessly as the hollering red-shirted throng grew louder. She had tears in her eyes.

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Edwards and his supporters are always talking about where other candidates get there money. The trial laywers money scare me more than any other. Lets see they are to give their client their all, this includes confusion, misstatement of facts etc. The truth means nothing to a good atty. It is a tit for tat business. Anyone that has dealt with attys knows it is true. Now you really want a great trial lawyer as President. That believes perception is reality, substance or truth do not matter. Wake-up
Obama ruled the JJ Dinner! The entire day!

Friday, he had the largest group of Sign Wars staff and volunteers.

Saturday, Barack, Michelle and John Legend had a pre-JJ dinner rally attended by over 4000 (many were Iowan precinct captains)from all age groups (look at the pictures, there were many gray and balding heads in the crowd!).  Most of these then followed Obama and Michelle marching to the JJ Dinner auditorium. Where is the media coverage of this????  It was awesome! We'd like to see video of it.

Clinton had NO rally... it would have been embarrassing with so few people like her dismay show of support at the Steak Fry.  All the other candidates did, with Edwards having a good showing...but where is his media coverage?

JJ Dinner: Obama supporters far far outnumbered the others (and they were not bussed in from other states like Clinton recruited from other states and they were a mixture of ages many gray and balding NOT 'to young to vote' as Mark Penn tried to spin...another example of Clinton camp's negative campaigning)

Edwards spoke first and did a strong speech, although I don't like hearing over and over about a swimming pool accident.  His cheering crowd was strong, second to Obama but stronger than Clintons.

Richardson: best speech I've heard him give, not good enough though to break out of 2nd tier.

Biden:  he should stop trying to tell jokes, 'Hello Chicago' was insulting to the over 4000 Iowan supporters that came in from all 99 counties, many traveling for hours, many committed as precinct captains to Obama... or was he referring to Clinton?

Dodd: I started to fall asleep, he said he would be short then went on and on.

Clinton:  the worst speech I've heard her give (much better at the Steak Fry)... looked and sounded like a bad actress playing the role of a presidental candidate in some forgettable made for TV mini-series.  Proved to me that she is not presidential caliber, just has name recognition and the Clinton machine behind her.  But of course the MSM spins it.  Not much crowd reaction... and they had already started chanting for Obama.

OBAMA: the c-span camera showed us a profile view as he waited during Pelosi's introduction.  Priceless photo. The moment before the speech that will go down in history. The crowd was a thunderous roar.  I thought "oh may God, what pressure on him."  

My husband shouted: "Hit is out the park, Barack! The future of this country depends on it!

AND he did, he rose the roof on that cavernous auditorium!

Watch the speech here: (keep in mind the crowd is cheering throughout but c-span turns off the crowd mic)  

http://youtube.com/watch?v=tydfsfSQiYc

Looks and sounds like a Democratic National Convention!!







Good news:  All the candidates at the dinner spoke to the issues in a way that reflects concern for American's right's, our responsibilities, our needs to care for the unfortunate among us, and the need for better stewardship as members of the world's body politic.  I heard nothing of the political arrogance and hubris we so need to avoid in repairing our damaged image.   In leadership, the Democratic party currently seems to have a wealth of riches.
Bad news: Sorting the single best electable person to lead us is a process fraught with difficulty and real danger to our country and the world.  
Personally, I find I do not rely on who said exactly what and when, or what promise has been made.  I do look for examples of what I consider wisdom, intellect and a thoughtful nature that will constitute real leadership.  Right now that seems to be most evident to me in Mr. Obama and Mr. Edwards.  Mix them up however you like, they both look good to me.  Iowans should look carefully at them both.  
It seems that most of the responses here are just thinly veiled campaign plants - typical! Barack gave the best speech, the Obama supporters were from Iowa, and the reason no one mentions Edwards is because this is his second time around and it's not that much more exciting than the first.
Thank you MR Seattle for the YouTube link to Obama's speech.  Everyone should see this inspirational speech from America's next President.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=tydfsfSQiYc
Obama/Webb '08!
I agree w/ Jan.  Go w/ your gut. Do your research.  Don't vote based on who the media says is a front runner.  Who most closely approximates your values?  Period.  I like John Edwards- I voted for him for senator the same yr. I voted for Bush for prez, and if he'd been the prez candidate over the translucent Kerry, I'd have voted Dem. instead of for Nader. (i'm a reg. independent.) I think Edwards is the most Democratic democrat amongst the people w/ a real chance, and a more articulate Clinton critic than Obama.  However, I think no candidate represents the Democrats I know as much as Kucinich does, and I think it's sad that his UFO thing gets all this press when his views don't.  This is why you gotta ignore these media folk.  I mean, I don't agree w/ the guy on much, but I love his ideas and perspective, as I do R. Paul on the repub. side.

PS- I'm glad someone noticed Craig Crawford seems to be so pro-Clinton.  He completely downplayed the fact that she was exposed in the debate.  I like Hill but Dems deserve the candidate that reflect their views, not a Manchurian candidate.  I like Obama, but he too has his media fans, like the lovely Mika B. on Scarbrough's morning show (of course, her dad is a foreign policy advisor to Obama, so that must be considered.)
After following many of the debates and articles about the candidates, I am convinced Barack Obama is our hope for the future.

He comes across as an honest, articulate, intelligent, caring individual who can bring people together. I believe he would be an exciting candidate for president -- one without all the political baggage of the other candidates.

He will be a wonderful ambassador of the U.S., and we may gain some respectability throughout the world through his leadership.

It is my fervent hope that our next president won't be Guliani. For me, it is a nightmare to imagine him heading our nation in these perilous times.
BTW, that Obama/Webb ticket looks ridiculously strong... so does Obama/Edwards, either way its situated, though I can hardly see Edwards playing second fiddle again... shame, as they aren't that far apart ideologically and their ideas are so representative of the majority of the party.  Clinton is a calculated bet on winning, but she's not where the enthusiasts in the party are...
Once again the corporate media, of which msnbc is a part, fails in their role as providers of information to the public, which is vital to a democracy. The corporate media's obvious and blatant attempts to marginalize the campaign of John Edwards shows their irrelavance to a democratic state and reinforces the sentiment that they are instruments of the state rather than providers of information for the people of this country.

Thanks Cedric.  Obama/Jim Webb would be a slam dunk.  Webb is exactly on the same page as Obama re: Iraq and Iran.  Can you imagine a former Reagan (!) Navy Secretary with a son in Iraq as Obama's running mate?
Far stronger than Edwards who couldn't even carry NC during 2004 and probably would have lost his reelection bid for the US Senate.
Obama/Webb '08 -- pass it on!
First of all, I am not a "campaign plant".  I'm a real, honest to goodness, grassroots supporter of John Edwards.  I've walked miles through my precinct and knocked on hundreds of doors.  That said, I'm not here to bad mouth any of the other candidates.  
What I do want to say is that I am appalled at the lack of information in this article about John Edwards.  This has been a continued pattern since he announced his candidacy in December. There are an overwhelming majority of people in my precinct who are still undecided.  An article like this (and many others like it) gives them extremely biased information.  
I was there at the JJ Dinner, and saw the genuine support for Edwards, including some enthusiastic applause from the other candidate's supporters.  Edwards speech was incredible and deserved to be reported to your readers.
I see MSNBC has done their typical stellar,high quality research on this subject. I'm so tired of all things Hillary and Barack. Anyone that watched the entire JJ dinner came away with one great memory and it was made early in the evening. When John Edwards voice broke and he said, "I am the voice for the voiceless." I was filled with so much emotion I could hardly contain myself. There was only one speech that had real, true emotion that connected to everyone in that building. There was only one man that talked about James Lowe and how he could live in this country for 50 years and not be able to speak because he had a cleft palette. Unbelievable! We all know who gave that speech. We don't need the pundits telling us who gave the best speech. I know which speech made me dream again and made me think about how corrupt our current government is and how I'm going to do everything in my power to get John elected.  He'll fight for me, so I'm going to fight for him. John told us about Blackwater giving money to Bush in the election and then getting no bid contracts in Iraq. John said he will give us hope and he will give them hell. Edwards cares about the working class. He wants my child and your child to have the same advantages he had growing up.  John might not fit in with the DLC type of Democrats which are so close to republicans that I can't tell them a part, but if you want a real democrat that will stand for us and fight the hypocrites and lobbyists on capital hill, there is only one choice, and trust me it's not Hillary or Barack!
This calls for one of those TV taste-test ads, where one of the same kinds of products are chosen, blind, for the best taste.  If all the stances of all the issues were in written form with no names attached and the one most representing the needs of the electorate were chosen, that would be an unbiased and fair race.  It isn't in the gender, in the race card, or even in the hair cut:  it's in the fine print, stupid, that is not always included in the allure of the seducing speeches given before each candidate's "choir".  All the hype in the world will not give us the President we need to survive as a diminishing democracy:  only the voters can do that and heaven help us if they chose the most important leader in the world on the basis of some kind of popularity test.  And, believe me, I don't give one hoot what the commentators or know-it-alls in the press say and stopped listening to CNN & MSNBC and reading the political rot on paper months ago.  I'm not, after all, voting for them.  Uh-uh.  I'm voting for the one who's committed to print all I need to know.  Why waste your time listening to divas stumping what's called a debate?  Just pull up their web sites and go from there--I dare you.      
My marks on speakers were as follows: Edwards, 1st place, for passion and sincerity--signaling clearly that HE would not let universal health care die on the vine; Obama, 2nd place, for outrage, finally; Biden, 3rd place, for his streetwise attitude and poetry. Hillary's talk about turning up the heat made my jaw drop because she had voted for Kyl-Lieberman! (which would warm the cockles of a neocon's heart) and Congress is acting like they had shut off the burners.
Glancing through all of these comments I am amazed at the harsh stance people take.  For the moment I will admit Obama has my vote.  He seems to embody the simple idea we are all in it together.  It seems few people or politicians realize this anymore...from the whiny liberal to the warmongering conservative.  We are all in it together.  The excerpts of Obama's speech were incredible.  I haven't seen Edwards' speech to comment on (although it isn't PC and she seems like a nice person, his wife whining about everything has turned me off greatly)...and I turned from Hillary for I truly detest her (no I am not chauvinistic, there are plenty of women who I think would make great presidents.  Hillary Clinton has the persona of someone who would sell their own daughter if it would get them elected...the typical politician.)  Reality is the most experienced and rational candidate has to be Biden.  Although one could argue Kennedy didn't have much experience and his greatness is rarely questioned.  Honestly I wouldn't turn my back on a Ron Paul like candidate as well.  But the one issue all democrats seem to underestimate is illegal immigration.  So far none of them seem to be on the side of the majority of the American people...and unlike gay marriage this is a reasonably serious issue that truly affects our country.  Lobbyist is an important issue as well, but honestly that is a concern of Congress.  How often is the president lobbied...other than by think tanks?  And how much power could the executive branch place on the legislative branch about their corrupt ways?  So at the end of the day I go for the uniter, nothing will be achieved until we stop bickering like hyperactive children.  And at least Obama and Biden seem willing to make that point.  
I was fortunate to be at the dinner Saturday night - and yes, Obama's oratory was wonderful.  It was the best performance I had heard from him this year.  But it was a performance.  Like other times I have heard him this year, both on TV and in person (such as the Tom Harkin steak-fry), he says some nice things, but gives me no clue about how he would actually accomplish them, nor confidence that he could.

It's a shame this year that the novelty candidates, Obama and Clinton, get all the attention, when we have a candidate of principle and action in John Edwards.  Unfortunately, my fear and belief is that the Mainstream media consciously avoids featuring John Edwards.  Why?  Because he would upset the status quo.  

At the J-J Dinner, John undoubtedly gave the strongest, most passionate speech of the evening, and one in which he clearly presented both his plans, but even more importantly, his underlying moral beliefs which in the long run, are the MOST IMPORTANT CREDENTIALS FOR A PRESIDENT.

I am still confident that a John Edwards presidency would clear the decks of lobbyists and corporate agencies looking to rob americans for all they're worth.  
We watched the speeches.  Thank you C-Span for covering them live.  As I always feel when all the candidates get together, we have a great group of people running for president.  'But John Edwards is clearly the best on the issues and has an appeal that will work around the nation.  He is the most electable and I think the Iowa caucus goers will know this.   I am looking forward to voting for him here in Alabama on the fifth of February.
"I have a tip for the national media. David Yepsen sometimes gets it wrong. I don't know if he has it wrong this time, but you would do well to make your own judgements.

Jane Doe, Ames, Iowa "

Jane,

You are very right, and it is often funny to watch the national media assume that everything Yepsen's says is based on fact.

The national media, and here in this post, have bought into the belief that Dean and Gephardt lost the 04 caucus because Iowans were turned off by their political attacks. This is accepted reality in DC and it has been repeated so often no one questions its accuracy. However, there is no study, no polling data, no research of any kind that supports this claim.

On 1/19/04 David Yepsen was on NBC and trying to explain why Gephardt and Dean who until the 1/17/04 Register poll had been trading first place in every poll since August 03 not only lost to Kerry and Edwards, but by far greater margins than the 1/17/04 poll, the only poll to show Kerry winning and Edwards second.

The caucus results weren't close to the Register's last poll (2 days before the caucus). The order was right, but only Dean was with the margin of error of his poll numbers two days earlier.(he polled at 20 received 18%) The Register's poll was completely wrong on level of support.

While Yepsen was being asked about this he basically guessed at why Gephardt and Dean "lost support", his guess was that us "nice Iowans" don't like negative campaigning and as a result we punished those two and went with the nicer John Kerry, and the super nice John Edwards.

Yepsen's analysis (or attempt to justify the papers horrible caucus polling record) never had any factual support and frankly was an insult to caucus goers, who as a rule aren't a bunch of dolts. The idea that we collectively punish someone for running a negative ad that we otherwise would have voted for is ridiculous!

Here are some basic problems with Yepsen's analysis.

1. Dean's 18% caucus support was within the margin of error of his support in every  "Iowa Poll" (the Register's trade mark poll name) Nov. 9 Dean was at 20%, and his highest level of support was 23% in the 8/3/03 Iowa Poll.  According to the paper's polling Dean didn't drop in support, because he was within the margin of error.

2. Gephardt did poll at 27% in the 11/9/03 poll, he was at 21% in August. Gephardt who won the caucus in 1988 never polled any where near the level of actual caucus support he received in 1988.

3. Polling likely caucus goers is statistically impossible because so few Iowans attend the caucus. Most polls usually merely show name recognition not actual support, or support among people contacted 80% of which won't attend a caucus. Which is why Lieberman polled at 10% in August 3, 03, and 5 weeks later withdrew from Iowa due to "lack of support" (He had double Edwards poll numbers in August- but he knew the polls were a joke- he had no support) Even by November over 2 months after he officially withdrew from Iowa he was polling tied with Edwards.

Dean was seen early on (by September at the latest) among a majority of rank and file Democrats as someone people agreed with on the issues, but who would get crushed in the general. The overwhelming number of caucus goers had ruled him out by early fall. Dean did not lose much support, because he didn't have much support to lose. The overwhelming number of those committed to Dean by September of 03 stayed with him.

Gephardt was hurt by a lot of factors. He was the labor candidate in 88, in 04 labor endorsements were split. This hurt him. Also while Edwards and Kerry had both voted for the Iraq resolution Gephardt was still Bush's biggest cheerleader on this issue. When other candidates were talking about changing directions, mistakes that had been made, Gephardt was saying he'd do it again. Gephardt's pro Iraq war stand, not a single commercial (except to the extent it exposed Gephardts actual views on the war) caused him to receive 10.5%. A vote for Gephardt was a vote for Bush's Iraq war, that not a single TV ad hurt Gephardt, because not a single ad falsely stated his Iraq war position.

Just like the media was wrong to accept Yepsen's guess regarding why Gephardt and Dean did so poorly, they are also wrong to buy into his every guess now.

As far as whether Yepsen is a GOP, I have no reason to suspect that he is, I think he means well, but is often just flat out guessing. The national media has no clue that Yepsen is either buying into spin from campaign surrogates (because he believes they are telling him the truth), or giving his own opinion based upon a gut feeling that is only right 50% of the time.

Maybe if the winner in Iowa isn't in the current top three the national media will figure out that Yepsen is a nice guy, who doesn't have an actual feel for what is happening on the ground.


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