First thoughts: The race is on
Posted: Monday, November 12, 2007 9:23 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** The race is on: So who's ahead in Iowa? And who’s behind? Judging by the tough anti-Hillary language in Obama's J-J speech Saturday night, one could easily conclude it's Obama who's pressing. Then again, it's the Clinton campaign that’s having to fend off charges of town hall question planting, and it's Clinton -- not Obama -- who attempted to change slogans that night. Campaigns that are comfortably ahead don't alter their slogans, particularly ones that need an explanation before they make sense. One thing seems for sure: The national media went to Iowa in droves this past weekend searching for a race and think they've found one. By the way, Obama's well-received J-J speech, combined with his passable Meet the Press appearance, was bad news for Edwards, who needs Obama to falter to break the national media's Clinton vs. Obama storyline.
VIDEO:
Dems' Iowa weekend
***
Obama 'Meets The Press': For the most part, Obama seemed to handle as well as he could the various contradictions that NBC's Russert presented. The question, of course, is which answers did he give that the Clinton campaign -- or another one -- believes it can use against him. His answers on the war? What about lobbyists? He didn't really have a straight answer as to why he accepts money from state lobbyists and not federal lobbyists. Then there was the acknowledgement during the back-and-forth over the war when Obama admitted that politics of the moment (the 2004 Dem convention) prevented him from totally speaking his mind on Iraq. Isnt' that EXACTLY what he accuses Clinton of? Obama tried to make light of that moment in July 2004, but something tells us we'll see that soundbite again.
*** Dems remain in the spotlight… : Expect the Democrats to once again dominate the week's campaign storylines. With a debate on tap for Thursday -- which couldn't be coming at a better time for Clinton (and to a lesser extent Edwards) -- the Democratic race will continue to dominate the national stage. Who will be on the attack in this debate? Obama? Probably. He seems to be borrowing from Kerry's playbook of being tough at live events but soft in paid spots. What about Edwards? Is it time for him to direct some of his ire at Obama, or will he continue to ignore the guy sitting ahead of him and instead potentially help Obama by attacking Clinton? And what should the front-runner do? Will she be more prepared to fend off attacks? Will she have a zinger or two stored away for Obama? Can't you picture the post-debate headlines if she successfully puts Obama in his place?
*** … but don’t forget about the Republicans: So what's going on with John McCain? Is he feeling the heat of watching his presidential political career potentially coming to an end? An indie political group is running seemingly positive ads about him (he's denouncing, of course). Also, his tough attack on Giuliani for his Kerik ties surprised many. Then there's McCain's mother, who may be the perfect attack dog since no one can tell a 95-year-old woman what to do -- even her son. Her Romney rant obviously wasn't planted, but... Speaking of Romney and the Mormon issue, should the candidate have admitted that he's allowing his political aides have the final say about giving "the speech?" Or is Romney simply setting up a moment for after Thanksgiving when he looks brave by defying his own staff in order to give "the speech," which, actually, presents very little downside since it seems the whispers have inflicted a share of damage (see Mrs. McCain).
*** All they want for Christmas… : Despite polls showing that the public is no happier with a Democratic-controlled Congress than it was when the GOP was charge, Republican retirements continue to occur. Can the GOP get through the rest of this year without any more of them? The party is edging much closer to 20 (or more) open House seats, and there is still one GOP incumbent senator who some are nervous hasn't shut the retirement door. We think we know what the NRCC's Tom Cole and the NRSC's John Ensign want for Christmas. No more surprise retirements!
*** On the trail: Biden, Clinton, Kucinich, and Richardson address a United Auto Workers conference in Dubuque, IA. Elsewhere, Edwards, in Plymouth, NH, gives a major policy address on overhauling the way the Department of Veterans Affairs treats post-traumatic stress disorder, and then holds a town hall at Dartmouth College; Giuliani campaigns in Missouri; Hunter is in Nevada; McCain stumps in South Carolina, where he attends a couple Veterans Day events; Obama and Romney visit New Hampshire; and Tancredo and Thompson are both in Iowa.
Countdown to Iowa: 52 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 57 days
Countdown to Michigan: 64 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 68 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 75 days
Countdown to Florida: 78 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 85 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 358 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 435 days
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