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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Oh-eight (R): Rudy’s delegate strategy

Posted: Tuesday, November 13, 2007 9:10 AM by Domenico Montanaro

GIULIANI: Here is the Washington Post on the Giuliani campaign’s delegate strategy: It “sought to remain on offense yesterday, holding a conference call with reporters in which campaign manager Michael DuHaime and strategy director Brent Seaborn outlined how their candidate could win even if he did not emerge victorious in early-voting states such as Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. DuHaime told reporters ‘there are multiple paths to victory,’ in large part because 1,038 of the nearly 1,200 delegates needed for the nomination will be up for grabs on Feb. 5. Giuliani, DuHaime said, holds strong leads in several of

And the New York Sun: “The Giuliani campaign had recently put more focus on the early states, but with new polls showing Mr. Romney has regained a comfortable edge in New Hampshire, it appears to be returning to a strategy based on success in the larger states that follow.”

The Wall Street Journal’s Jerry Seib writes the Giuliani's-national-poll-lead-isn't-insurmountable story. “Though the Giuliani and Clinton leads in national polls appear similar, Mr. Giuliani's grip on his party's nominating process is, in fact, less solid, and the tests he is likely to face are more severe.”

Yet here’s Kathleen Parker on why Rudy is still leading in the national polls -- and has a chance at not just the nomination, but the White House: “The real issue isn't fetuses or embryos or same-sex unions or bearded bad guys. It's Clintons. When it comes to that ol' time religion, nothing quite sparks the evangelical spirit like the thought of Bill and Hillary back in the White House and all the attendant imagery forever tattooed on buttoned-up brains.”

HUCKABEE: The New York Times’ Romney beat reporter spent a few days with Huckabee to see what all the fuss was about.  "Their campaigns are a study in contrasts. Mr. Romney may be akin to the mega-church pastor -- the Rev. Joel Osteen, who is similarly dentally blessed and perfectly-coiffed for television. He travels with something of an entourage; his events are well organized; his campaign is rigid about media availability. Mr. Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, is the scruffy itinerant evangelist, stirring up crowds in small but enthusiastic revivals in one small town after another. Television crews have to depend on ‘natural sound,’ as it is called in the business, to record his speeches, because there are no ‘mult-boxes,’ the devices that allow them usually to tape directly off the audio from the microphone."

MCCAIN: The Arizona senator "asked his donors on Monday not to send money to independent groups that circumvent campaign finance regulations as they seek to assist his presidential campaign. The request came after a group calling itself the Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America began running television advertisements in South Carolina late last week that featured a glowing reference’ to McCain.”

The New York Times’ David Brooks is still a McCain fan.

ROMNEY: The Los Angeles Times looks how Romney is continuing to back away from his health care "triumph" while he was Massachusetts governor. "For now -- even as he pursues the Republican presidential nomination and a weekend poll shows him pushing into a modest lead in the crucial primary state of New Hampshire -- Romney finds his most renowned legislative accomplishment to be, at best, a mixed blessing. Nonpartisan analysts continue to celebrate the state's healthcare reform, but liberals and even some business allies from Massachusetts criticize Romney for not embracing it more wholeheartedly. Conservatives, meanwhile, attack him for too readily adopting what they call the sort of big-government solution typical in this famously Democratic state."

Romney appeared on Morning Joe today, and MSNBC’s Joe Scarborough asked the candidate if he was shying away from his health-care record. Romney replied that he does speak about his record and that the media has overplayed the shy-away narrative.

The Boston Globe: “Now, just seven weeks before the first votes are cast, Romney's disciplined approach stands as one of the biggest contrasts with his main rivals for the Republican nomination, all of whom are campaigning more as charismatic figures than as methodical politicians seeking to lock up various constituencies.”

Romney met with the Concord Monitor editorial board yesterday. "Over the course of the hour-long session, the 60-year-old businessman spoke of his passion for data in decision-making and quoted a psalm to explain why he wishes he'd had more than five children. He described  ‘jihadists’ bent on causing the ‘collapse of civilization’ and said the Bush administration has struck the right balance between privacy and security." More: "Asked how he'd address voters wary of his Mormon faith, Romney said he wasn't sure but emphasized that his faith's Judeo-Christian roots are crucial to his political views on marriage, family, liberty and more. In the course of a three-minute answer, Romney never used the words Mormon or Latter-Day Saint."

TANCREDO: The Rocky Mountain News on the Tancredo ad: "Interspersed with images of a bloody body and the destruction of recent terrorist attacks in London, Spain and Russia, it argues that this could be ‘the price we pay for spineless politicians who refuse to defend our border against those who come to kill.’ But one Iowa political analyst called it such a ‘brute’ appeal for fear that it's not likely to help Tancredo's long-shot campaign here in the nation's first presidential caucus state. Neither will the ad prompt any other candidates to respond, as Tancredo told reporters Monday was his real goal, the analyst said."

The Des Moines Register has more on the ad: “The ad depicts a hooded figure who plants a backpack loaded with explosives in a crowded shopping center. Images from recent terror attacks in London, Spain and Russia flash across the screen as a timer clicks rhythmically before an explosion.”

THOMPSON: The Washington Post's Shear recounts the effort longtime Thompson confidant, Ken Rietz, led to put together a campaign. Most of the folks he recruited are now gone. Rietz ‘has no official title and is not getting paid by the campaign. But aides say his close relationship to Thompson still gives him unique access to the candidate.’ Current campaign manager Bill Lacy calls Rietz the ‘godfather’ of the campaign. But what began as a lean, bold, insurgent-style political effort -- conceived by Rietz and the handful of people in what the campaign calls ‘The House’ -- has morphed into a traditional, big-budget campaign that has so far failed to live up to the hype Rietz helped create last spring.”

“‘There was an irrational exuberance for Internet campaigning,’ one former staffer said. ‘When this exaggerated faith in the Net collided with reality, the impact was pretty severe. Once the real campaign began, an organization that placed no premium on having a real campaign was ill prepared to deal with it.’”

Thompson's Iowa stop yesterday has brought a new round of “maybe Thompson can do well in Iowa" stories.  

NBC’s David Gregory was on the trail with Thompson yesterday, and his dispatch aired on TODAY: “Billing himself as the one consistent conservative in the race, Thompson is selling his anti-abortion views in TV ads now airing in Iowa… Today, he'll pick up a key endorsement from the National Right to Life Committee.”

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Three new polls in states that were not close at all in 2004 bring fascinating results, as Hillary and Rudy are locked in a toss-up in Connecticut, Tennessee and Georgia! Check it out: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/11/three-states-that-were-not-close-at-all.html
It is clear that the more people get to know Mitt Romney, the better he is doing.  The reverse is the case for Rudy.  As people get to know him, the more they realize there is just not much there.  Mr. Romney is  more organized and able to relay his vision for our country more clearly.  
Dear Tommy Tancredo:

The only man(not politician) with a "spine" in the Republican field who won't scare the folks about imaginary terror attacks is ...(you guessed it!!)

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2007/11/ron_paul_probably_a_risk_he_co.html
<i>It is clear that the more people get to know Mitt Romney, the better he is doing.  The reverse is the case for Rudy. </i>

That's not true at all. The national polls still have Rudy with a double digit lead.  And in places like NH, where Romney has increased his lead -- it is because he is spending record amounts of money on media advertising, while Rudy hasn't spent any yet.
 Sorry Bowa, John is right, your wrong. The more people get to know Romney the higher his poll numbers go. The more they get to really know Giulliani the lower his numbers go. The only reason Giulliani's national numbers are still high relative to the others is because of his name id, not because people know him. You have to look at the states in which the candidates have comparative name recognition, ie. Iawa, New Hampshire, South Caralina. Where people know both the candidates it is Mitt Romney and not Giulliani with the double digit leads (Romney is tied for first in South Carolina). And to say that the reason Romney is leading in New Hampshire is only because of the money is really ignorant. Rather, it is the time he spends with the voters, his message, his far superior organization as well as just old fashioned hard work in conjunction with the advertising that will win him the Presidency. And as far as those National poll numbers go, don't worry. After Mitt Romney sweeps Iawa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and South Caralina those numbers will change.
The Romney factor of increasing momentum is true. Guiliani's national numbers are up because he is so well known nationally. Romney has to advertise to get known and he has the money to do so.  When he does his numbers go up-- "push the pedal and it goes" is how Romney's aids describes how well his advertising works. Guiliani doesn't have the money to compete and has reached his exposure saturation -- he is stuck where he is at, only to watch it slowly slip away.   Momentum is Romney's friend.  Guiliani has nowhere to go but down.


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