First thoughts: Rudy's big-state gamble
Posted: Tuesday, November 13, 2007 9:24 AM by Domenico MontanaroFirst Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers Rudy’s big-state gamble: The Giuliani campaign yesterday appeared to have some success in getting many members of the national press corps to write -- if not completely buy into -- the idea that it doesn’t need to win in the early states because of the big delegate payoffs later in January (Florida) and February (Tsunami Tuesday). Does this mean the campaign is now backing off New Hampshire, where Giuliani has spent A LOT of time recently? And is the campaign panicking here in the wake of two new polls showing that Romney’s lead in the Granite State is growing? Giuliani is not the first candidate to attempt to get the national press to downplay the early states in hopes for wins later, and it rarely works. That said, Giuliani's the first national front-runner to try this. Of course, what happens to the Giuliani national poll lead if he loses Iowa, Wyoming, New Hampshire, and Michigan between January 3 and January 15? Something will give. That said, if Giuliani breaks through early, it is true he'll be nearly impossible to stop come February 5. The question is getting to that date with his national lead intact. Here's First Read's report .
*** Fred’s shot in the arm: In DC today, the National Right to Life Committee holds a press conference in which the group will announce it’s endorsing Fred Thompson. It appears Thompson won’t attend the presser in person; instead, he’s in South Carolina, where he speaks at the Citadel in Charleston and then does a meet-and-greet at the NASCAR Cafe in Myrtle Beach. The Right to Life nod is a BIG deal. The group spends real money when it backs someone; it's akin to a major labor nod for a Dem candidate. This could be particularly helpful to Thompson in Iowa and South Carolina, where he needs an organizational boost. In fact, it may be why Right to Life picked Thompson -- a major candidate to whom it could make a real difference, therefore potentially having more influence should he get the nod. Could this be for Thompson what the Firefighters were for Kerry in 2004?
*** Desperation time? No one is working Iowa harder than Edwards is, as the New York Times writes today. But is there also a hint of desperation here? “Mr. Edwards often says there is much at stake in this campaign, and his pace and rhetoric reflect his perceived urgency. He has sharpened his criticisms of Mrs. Clinton so much that [Obama supporter] Gordon Fischer, chairman of the Iowa Democratic Party when Mr. Edwards campaigned in 2004, said his demeanor was ‘much more of an attack dog’ than before.” Also, don’t miss that Edwards is refusing to say that he would endorse Hillary Clinton if she becomes the nominee. And, by the way, Edwards goes up with a new TV ad today in Iowa focused on health care.
*** Vote for Tancredo or Die: So the Tancredo campaign unveiled its first TV ad -- the image of a terrorist blowing up a shopping mall. It's the type of ad that one might have expected from Tancredo when his campaign started -- that is, a "shock jock" type of ad. But, frankly, he's been such a non-factor lately that this smells of a candidate desperate for attention. The message of the ad, essentially: Vote for Tancredo or die.
*** On the trail: Edwards continues to campaign in New Hampshire; McCain attends a luncheon in Chicago before hitting fundraising events in Dallas; Obama speaks to the United Auto Workers in Dubuque, IA, a day after some of his Dem rivals addressed the group; Paul meets with voters in Dixville Notch, NH; Richardson raises money in California; and -Romney campaigns in Iowa. Also, Elizabeth Kucinich, in California, speaks to Democrats at Cal Poly.
Countdown to Iowa: 51 days
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