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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



More oh-eight: Heading West

Posted: Wednesday, November 14, 2007 9:09 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

In advance of Thursday’s Democratic debate in Las Vegas, Nevada’s own Harry Reid (D) and fellow Sen. Ken Salazar (D) held a conference call with reporters stressing the West’s importance for the Democrats. “If you want to win the presidency next year, you have to win the West,” Reid said. “And the way to the West is through Nevada and Colorado.” During the Q&A, Reid also argued that the Nevada nominating contest -- set for January 19 -- adds fairness to the Democratic nominating process. “Our country is a country of diversity, and it is unfair to have a candidate chosen based on” what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire. In the future, Reid said, rotating regional primaries might be the best way to modify the nominating calendar.

Also in advance of tomorrow’s debate… SEIU and other groups pressing for universal health care hold a rally and press conference today in Las Vegas. And the ONE campaign tonight is hosting a free concert to raise awareness to global poverty and disease.

A couple of first-hand blog reports about potential push-polling in Iowa sparked a round of reporting about who may have been behind it. NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan reports that spokesmen for all three major Democratic campaigns adamantly denied being connected to the calls. Bill Burton from the Obama campaign called them “abhorrent” while Eric Schultz from the Edwards campaign said, “No in big capital letters.”

So who made the calls? Doing their own research, bloggers on the Edwards site found that Central Research is actually a firm known as Central Marketing Services in New York City, which has been connected to negative message testing before. The liberal blogger Taylor Marsh has found that Central Research is connected to Wilson Research Strategies, a firm that has been tied to push polling before in a local race for mayor’s in Indiana.  

Ben Smith’s blog on the Politico reports that he contacted the owner of the firm, Carol McMahon, to ask about the campaigning and received no reply. Smith’s reporting also found that Central Research is also tied to Global Strategies Group, a firm owned by Edwards pollster Harrison Hickman. Central Research was also reported to have done polling against Freddy Ferrer in the New York Mayor’s race in 2005.

"Michigan election officials asked the Court of Appeals on Tuesday for emergency consideration of a request to salvage the state's Jan. 15 presidential primary, indicating they need an answer by the end of the week to meet election schedules. The appeal, along with a possibility the Legislature will fix next week the primary law that was found unconstitutional by an Ingham County judge last week, nurtured faint hopes among backers of the primary that the seemingly star-crossed election might yet happen."

The bigger news today in Michigan, though, is that it’s the last day the state parties have to decide when they'll hold their primary. After today, New Hampshire election officials can take comfort that whatever date the two parties pick (probably Jan. 15), it can't move. This means we could have an official New Hampshire primary date very soon.

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First Read

Here I go again, sorry, but what exactly is push polling?
The way the Clinton campaign is going, no one needs to be "planting" stories on them.  They are doing a bang up job doing that themselves.  

Guess Hillary's team learned a few things from Homeland Security......
Interestingly, a comment on Ben Smith's blog at 11:38 PM last eve, in reference to the Elizabeth Edwards push poll, to which you are refering, makes a serious racial slur at Obama. Significantly, it is signed by Howard Wolfson, Hillary's senior advisor. If it is really THE Mr Wolfson, it deserves to be very serious trouble for Clinton and deserves MSM coverage. I will quote the blog: "I did it with a black face" signed Howard Wolfson.
Interestingly, a comment on Ben Smith's blog at 11:38 PM last eve, in reference to the Elizabeth Edwards push poll, to which you are refering, makes a serious racial slur at Obama. Significantly, it is signed by Howard Wolfson, Hillary's senior advisor. If it is really THE Mr Wolfson, it deserves to be very serious trouble for Clinton and deserves MSM coverage. I will quote the blog: "I did it with a black face" signed Howard Wolfson.
Dot, Illinois: '..Here I go again, sorry, but what exactly is push polling?...'

Dot, you conduct a poll, but among the questions are some designed to 'trash' the other candidate.
Would knowing that Mitt Romeny cheats on his taxes affect your vote ?
Does Rudy's indicted aide, Bernard Kerik reflect on Rudy's judgement ?

Sounds pretty 'Clintonesque' doesn't it ?
Slam Obama or Edwards and make it look like the other is doing it.
Mark Penn, Hillary's campaign manager is a Karl Rove 'wannabe'.
sounds like something Penn would do.
Penn was famous for inventing 'astro turf', or fake grass roots.

Dot--Here you go.  I just googled it.  I didn't know either.  I've been push polled before for a local election--the only time I've ever been polled.

A push poll is a political campaign technique in which an individual or organization attempts to influence or alter the view of respondents under the guise of conducting a poll. In a push poll, large numbers of respondents are contacted, and little or no effort is made to collect and analyze response data. Instead, the push poll is a form of telemarketing masquerading as a poll. Push polls are generally viewed as a form of negative campaigning [1]. The term is also sometimes used inaccurately to refer to legitimate polls which test political messages, some of which may be negative. Push polling has been condemned by the American Association of Political Consultants.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Push_poll
NSMSNBC

Thanks for the info.
Every American(no matter which party), should ignore these negative polls/emails/letters/ that sound like it might be negative towards another candidate. If, after you hang up the phone, you feel better or worse about any candidate based on loaded questions, then you have been push polled. Recycle the garbage in your mental junk file, and research that candidates positions. Go to their website/watch their videos, read their books etc. We, the ppl can put an end to that type of trash politics.
"In the future Reid said, rotating regional primaries might be the best way to modify the nominating calendar."

I find that to be an intriguing idea.  Our primary in IL isn't until March and by then it may all have been decided.
Sierra

Thanks for the info.
“If you want to win the presidency next year, you have to win the West,” Reid said.

If that's true than the Dems had better not run Hillary.  In Colorado, Independents (a big block) and some moderate Republican voters routinely split their vote. In 2004 they elected the Dem Salazar brothers to the House and Senate while going for Bush.  Bill Clinton only won his first election here because Perot did so well. He lost his second election (without Perot running) and he was much more popular here than Hillary.  The rest of the west is equally problematic for her.  Independents who say there is  no way they'll vote for her mean it.  
"Here I go again, sorry, but what exactly is push polling?

Dot, Illinois"

Push polling is calling people up and asking who they support, and if they say Edwards, you say "would you still support Edwards if you knew he helped Michael Vick kill dogs?"

The pollster (or campaign that employees them) isn't saying Edwards kills dogs, just asking the person if that would change their mind. Right! Bush's campaign did this in South Carolina to McCain, and it killed McCain in SC.


Clinton's Iowa staffers have been push polling in their calls to 2004 caucus goers. Normally though the type of campaign that resorts to this type of campaigning has the push poll call done by an "independent group". It is very bold for Clinton's paid Iowa staff to trash other candidates in calls to caucus goers.

Prior to this year I had never experienced a Democratic candidate push polling. The GOP candidate for Secretary of Agriculture (a post I could not care less about) trashed the Democratic candidate with horrible push polling with robo calls. The GOP candidate probably would have won anyway, but sadly this sleazy tactic helped. Hopefully caucus goers will punish the culprit, which most people are sure is Hillary.
Thanks, Molly. I suppose my idealism (naivete?) is showing but I continue to be troubled by the level of the campaign tactics of our politicians. Honesty and integrity are apparently just words to use for sound bites.  The difficulty in choosing from these candidates seems to increase every day---the more I hear from their campaigns, the less I like any of them.
Ben Smith did NOT "get no reply" from Carol McMahon.  He said he got a denial from her.  I called her myself, and got the same denial.  As for the supposed connection between "Central Research  Services"  and "Global Strategies Group".... nothing comes up when you google search those two companies, and this blog entry is the ONLY thing that comes up when you substitute "Marketing" for "Research" of ...so perhaps you could disclose what the actual "connection" is here.

You might also want to mention that Wilson Research Strategies is a REPUBLICAN polling outfit....
Gravel kucinich paul nader perot carter [conyers?rangel?] united for truth elicit fear smear blacklist.

Honesty compassion intelligence guts.

No more extortion blackmail bribery division.

Divided we fall.
For the record, I was push polled this morning. I stated my preference for Obama and Edwards, and subsequent questions presented negative ideas about both. I angrily ended the call, feeling at first that it originated with the Clinton campaign. On reflection I'm less sure of that, but I'd be very suprised if it came from either the Obama or Edwards folks.
So, who was push polling Edwards' hair cuts in Iowa earlier in the year when he was leading there?

CLINTON OR OBAMA?

And why didn't anyone in the CASHSTREAM MEDIA pick up on that story?
For the record, I was push polled this morning. I stated my preference for Obama and Edwards, and subsequent questions presented negative ideas about both. I angrily ended the call, feeling at first that it originated with the Clinton campaign. On reflection I'm less sure of that, but I'd be very suprised if it came from either the Obama or Edwards folks.

John, Cedar Rapids, IA

John,

There is no reason to be less sure about this, Clinton's staffers have actually push polled when making caucus supporter calls. Pretty stupid with the advent of caller ID!


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