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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Oh-eight (R): All about Hillary…

Posted: Wednesday, November 14, 2007 9:20 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:

The toplines of the New York Times/CBS poll: In Iowa, Romney leads with 27%, followed by Huckabee at 21% and Giuliani at 15%. In New Hampshire, Romney is at 34%, with Giuliani and McCain tied at 16%.

The Times: “Republican voters in those two states say that Mitt Romney, a former governor of Massachusetts, shares their values and views on immigration, a red-hot issue for Republicans in Iowa especially. But they are divided over whether Mr. Romney or Rudolph W. Giuliani, who Republican voters say does not share their values, would be the party’s strongest general-election candidate -- and electability looms as a crucial factor for Republican voters in those states."

The Washington Post's Shear looks at the role bashing Hillary is playing in the GOP primary. "Antipathy toward Clinton is hardly new for Republicans. During a McCain appearance in South Carolina on Monday, a woman in attendance used an unflattering term” -- rhymes with witch -- to describe Clinton in asking how Republicans could beat her next year. McCain offered to ‘give the translation’ but still made clear he understood whom the questioner was referring to, referencing a poll showing him beating Clinton in a head-to-head matchup. ‘I respect Senator Clinton,’ he added.”

“But the increasingly routine bashing is also about the future as the candidates seek to prove to a depressed and frustrated Republican base that someone -- anyone -- can beat the disciplined, well-financed Hillary Clinton machine if she becomes the Democratic nominee."

GIULIANI: Today's latest Kerik installment, per the New York Times: "Judith Regan, the former book publisher, says in a lawsuit filed yesterday protesting her dismissal by the News Corporation, the media conglomerate, that a senior executive there encouraged her to lie to federal investigators about her past affair with Bernard B. Kerik after he had been nominated to become homeland security secretary in late 2004. The lawsuit asserts that the News Corporation executive wanted to protect the presidential aspirations of Rudolph W. Giuliani, Mr. Kerik’s mentor, who had appointed him New York City police commissioner and had recommended him for the federal post."

More: "In the civil complaint filed in State Supreme Court in Manhattan, Ms. Regan says the company has long sought to promote Mr. Giuliani’s ambitions. But the lawsuit does not elaborate on that charge, identify the executive who she says pressured her to mislead investigators, or offer details to support her claim.”

And: "The Fox News Channel’s coverage of the presidential race has been a topic of some discussion within rival campaigns because the channel is directed by Mr. Giuliani’s friend of 20 years, Roger Ailes. But the network has strongly defended the balance of its coverage under Mr. Ailes, who served as media consultant to Mr. Giuliani’s first mayoral campaign in 1989. Mr. Giuliani, as mayor, later officiated at Mr. Ailes’s wedding."

The Boston Globe’s editorial page says Giuliani “will have to give better answers than he has so far about why he failed to look more closely into Kerik's background.” More: “If Kerik's ascent casts doubt on Giuliani's management style, so does the mayor's treatment of William Bratton, one of Kerik's predecessors as commissioner.”

Giuliani is coming out against a proposal that could allow convicted crack cocaine dealers out of prison sooner than their sentences demand, the New York Sun writes.

MCCAIN: The New York Times reports on the video clip making the rounds yesterday, in which a McCain supporter referred to Clinton as an expletive that rhymes with witch. "A spokesman for Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton declined to comment on Mr. McCain’s response. But some of her advisers said they were surprised that he had not defused the moment more artfully, given the possibility that it might stir sympathy or outrage on Mrs. Clinton’s behalf in some quarters."

PAUL: The Boston Globe’s Scott Lehigh profiles Ron Paul and says he “has just reached the peak of geek chic…. So what explains Paul's appeal? For starters, the rumpled septuagenarian is light-years distant from your typical pol, and young people are drawn to someone who is different…” Lehigh also calls him “authentic” and says he sounds “generational themes.” But: “Paul now appears to be entering a classic arc in presidential politics: that of the quirky candidate who suddenly catches fire, but often fades when his unorthodox ideology comes into sharper focus.”

ROMNEY: So how much of a threat has Huckabee become to Romney in Iowa? He's now starting to attack Huckabee as well as Giuliani, at least on the issue of immigration. "Mitt Romney, seeking to protect his narrowing lead and fend off challenges from rivals in this early-voting state, assailed Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani over supporting tuition breaks and broader sanctuary for illegal immigrants or their children."

“In turn, Huckabee said in a phone interview with The Associated Press: ‘The attacks from a guy who has sanctuary cities in his state is interesting.’ Huckabee said he backed a bill in Arkansas -- and would do so again -- that gave children of illegal immigrants ‘the opportunity to be awarded for academic achievements’ based on merit provided they were in the process of applying for citizenship.”

The head of the Southern Baptist Convention, Richard Land, told Reuters that he believes Romney HAS to give a Kennedy-style speech on his faith if he has any hope of garnering significant evangelical support.

Politico's Martin is reporting that Romney's campaign has paid media attacking Giuliani ready to go "but so far has not used them because of an internal dispute about the risks of a backlash in going negative on the Republican front-runner, according to numerous sources in and close to the Romney campaign."

THOMPSON: Romney supporter Paul Weyrich speculated that the National Right to Life Committee endorsed Thompson out of some sort of financial arrangement. “‘I think in all probability the Thompson people were engaged with the National Right to Life people in financial dealing,’ said Mr. Weyrich.”

For those wondering why Fred Thompson didn't make an appearance at the National Right to Life Committee's endorsement press conference yesterday, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy has an answer. Per Thompson spokesman Darrell Ng, the NRLC has been criticized in the past for appearing to coordinate their political efforts with campaigns by inviting candidates to their endorsement press conferences. Under FEC laws, independent political action groups are forbidden from coordinating their organizational efforts with a particular political campaign, and although personal appearances by a candidate at a press conference are not illegal, both the NRLC and the Thompson campaign wanted to avoid any possible appearance of coordination.

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Comments

I would bet the farm Hillary did not plant that woman at McCain's rally......


The GOP doesn't need to go after Hillary right now....
she is imploding her campaign just fine without us....
The Republicians might do well to restrain their exuberance in bashing Senator Clinton.  I have a feeling that if they go too far, it will backfire and they will see people begin to feel sorry for Senator Clinton, and will  believe that she is indeed being "picked on."
I disagree with the Globe's notion that Paul's campaign will proceed on a downward arc due to some of his positions, and this is why.  Paul has been very deft in saying for instance, despite the fact that he's a libertarian who doesn't believe in all the social programs, he wouldn't shut them down or cancel benefits as President; it appears he respects Congress' power and knows they would allow no such thing, and he believes that just ending our neocon foreign policy will enough to start balancing out our hemorrhaging debts, whereas it's enough to give young people the choice to opt out of social programs without actually canceling anyone's benefits, and let the system phase itself out on its own over decades.  

This is a particularly effective and non-threatening message to even a general electorate, compared at least to what the other Republicans are offering.  The only real hitch in terms of issues for Paul in a general election would be his tilting of the Supreme Court to the right, probably enough to potentially overturn Roe vs. Wade; however, that is a problem ALL GOP candidates will run into in the general, including Rudy, who has the same promise to appoint "strict constructionalist judges".
What if Hillary ISN'T the nominee? What are these bellowing gas bags going to do then? Make their platform to pass laws banning th efurther use of the name Hillary?

Would you catch a clue? Ron Paul is the only who doesn't use his every breath to slam Hilldawg. You know why? None of the rest of them has a single idea. Their campaign slogan should be "Elect Hate."
Iowans have a familiarity with Mormons since the Massacre at Nauvoo. Mormons crossed Iowa on the "Mormon Trail" migrating West. There still is a 'Mormon Bridge' crossing into Nebraska. I see the sticking point with Romney being his similarity to the Bush/Cheney War Rhetoric and avoidance of Military Service during Viet Nam, not to mention, the non-participation of his children in the current Military. This at a time when Iowans are once again, paying a heavy price in the Mid-East, just as they have done in every war since the Civil War. The last soldier to die in Viet Nam, was from Iowa. He has yet to address this.
It is interesting to see the difference in the repub numbers in Iowa and NH, it shows that people want issue driven campaign but that different sections of the country have different issues they want dealt with.
This will be a harder election for the candidates in the GOP because their usual tactics are not wanted by people in their own party. George Bush has left so much unfinished business for the next president that the candidates in the GOP will have to not only distance themselves from the President, they will have to come down hard on his policies to resonate with the people they want to vote for them.
I think that the next president will also have many more americans looking over their shoulder, no more trust in the leader of our country, that is also sommething we can thank Bush for, an electorate that may become more active. I'm sure that is not what the bushies thought would happen, but good things do come out of bad decisions.
John McCain is still to me the most electable and therefore to a democrat, the most dangerous republican candidate...


Van
Sure, the Republicans attack Hillary... Hillary attacks the Republicans.  That's how it works.  They attack each other.  It's just politics as usual... is anyone surprised?
Hillary does not have to plant questions, she talks about true issues with suggestons on how to change our current situation that this president has extremely screwed up! the other guys are just bashing her when they should have been concentrating on their voters instead of going after hers!

***CLINTON IS THE ONLY CLEAR CHOICE FOR 2008, we are tired of the ole whinning boys club.

VOTE FOR HILLARY 2008
Van - 90% of what made McCain such a powerful general election candidate in 2000 is gone.  The strongest choice for Republicans is some theoretical hybrid of Giuliani and Paul; if Rudy were to turn against the war, he'd be the toughest GOP candidate fathomable in 2008, but he's waited too long for that to credibly happen.  So I think the question now is whether Rudy is nonetheless strongest on the Republican side due to his general election polling, or whether the GOP should just take a chance and go for a radical change,  and an anti-war tack, two things the broader electorate badly wants.

I know what you think of my prognosticating powers, Van, so I will refer you to a post I wrote to a Republican all the way back in JANUARY, when McCain was still to be inevitable for another six months, and back when I had no clue who Ron Paul was:

"If you guys want to beat the Democrats in 2008 and preserve the long term future of your party, suck it up, nominate Giuliani, and have him denounce the recent direction of the Republican party when it comes to these authoritarian laws; have him talk about a return to national defense over military adventurism, fiscal conservatism over the most overspending in history, small government over the biggest government in history, and a return to old school Goldwater conservatism and Rockefeller Republicanism. Then you guys actually have a pretty good shot in the general, and more importantly, at beginning to restore credibility back to your party among the electorate. Otherwise, the long road ahead for you guys ahead politically is going to be a very rough one..."

http://ctlocalpolitics.net/2007/01/commentary.html

Not only did I see Giuliani's frontrunner status coming, and McCain's decline coming, but in a way I even saw Ron Paul coming, even though I had never heard of him at the time.
 We all matter,The problem is the GOP thinks only they matter.God has bitch slapped us for the last seven years.All we can do is pray that the "Hate Train"will never leave the station and we can be a country of the people,for the people and by the people again....let us pray.Maybe God "will shed his grace on thee(us)", once more.    With respect to the Dems and the GOP.Rayne
The last soldier to die in Viet Nam, was from Iowa. He has yet to address this.

And your point is Steve??????

For ladraine to make a statement about Hillary Clinton not having to have questions planted; you are a little late.  I watched the interview with the girl who asked the question.  It was a planted question, pure and true.  I'm sure she did not want to have the same press coming after her the way everybody went after the Frost family, but I'll believe her story over Hillary any day, just because of the reputation that the Clinton's have for telling the truth.
Van,  John McCain is to OLD to be president. He will take us to war with Iran. He also has cancer and I doubt he will last another year on the campaign trail. There is a vast movement against the Iraq war, and more so for additional ones.
Not only did I see Giuliani's front runner status coming, and McCain's decline coming, but in a way I even saw Ron Paul coming, even though I had never heard of him at the time.
Shadow, Hamden, CT (Sent Wednesday, November 14, 2007 11:04
---------------------------------------------
You must be Psychic Mary, or maybe her brother.
Wow you should go to work for Wall Street! Dude!
You must have long arms and a sore back!
Wow....beating Hillary in the General Election?  I would have never known the GOP was abandoning all kinds of principles just to win next November.  So, the party that hates abortion -- is abandoning ALL their candidates that have ALWAYS been against abortion just to beat Hillary and remain in power....Sounds Roman Empire to me.
jerry. crawl back under your rotten log.
Van: I agree with you wholeheartedly (for once),
re: McCain in the general election.  McCain would do the best among independents and moderates because he has the single most compelling story among the Republican candidates.  Guiliani and Romney are skewerable and Huckabee (although likeable), won't get the nomination.  Thompson is a non-starter.

Hell, before he cloned himself to Bush (before he became such a crazy supporter of this war - his support for this war makes no military sense to me, it was all political, in order to position himself for the nomination), I was even willing to look at him in 2000; obviously that would never happen now.  The thing is, he has aligned himself too closely with Bush on immigration and that really has killed his chances for nomination by the Republicans.
Obama '08
okay people all the canadates plant questions I don't agree with it, we all KNOW W BUSH ALWAYS CONTROLLED his town hall meetings and still does, HILLARY 08 YAY!!!!!!!!!
well Steve I'll make the point for you.......

If I want to relive history.....
I'll get ESPN Classic......

I still don't get all this talk about Vietnam....
was a long time ago.....
A little young for me......
Jerry, you are always fun to read but your critics are morally wrong.  One should probably not criticize or make fun of the mentally handicapped.  Sorry!
Jerry, Vietnam, think unpopular, immoral, illegal war, costing a lot of American lives and wasted treasure.  Iraq, with jungles.
In order to beat Hillary outright on Feb. 5, the opposition will have to hurt her significantly in the states proir to Super Tuesday. She's real tough in the big states right about now. That can and will change though. If it doesn't, I"ll be very surprised.

Jerry your obsession with Hillary is border lining on nuts. Please attempt some degree of objectivity with your hate. Perhaps directing some of that outrage toward stupid in the White House or possibly Rudy "the Mobster" Giuliani and his ties to Bernard Kerik, News Corp. and Rudy’s new BFFL Sean Hannity?
Montanaro claims an outsider's candidacy "often fades when his unorthodox ideology comes into sharper focus."

Latest poll results unequivocally show that his support is INCREASING as his ideology comes into sharper focus.  That's the reward of honesty and consistency.
Nathan, so you're saying Bush is just as controlling as Hillary Clinton?
A vote for Romney is a vote for torture!
http://www.reason.com/news/show/121088.html
All candidates plant questions? Ron Paul doesn't. He also follows the Constitution every time even if he'd rather not. He's introduced bills just to show the rest of Congress what Constitutional legislation actually looks like. Integrity to one's oath of office and to the people of this country should mean something. If it does, there is but one candidate who fits the bill. Like other posters have said, his support grows as his message becomes clearer to more and more people. The more people listen to him explain in detail what he wants to do with historical perspective to back it up, they realize he's not just a sound bite politician. He has actual reasons based in fact, common sense, and history for why he would do something. This is historic, people! Take a chance at righting the ship before it sinks.


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