First thoughts: Huck of a showing
Posted: Wednesday, November 14, 2007 9:26 AM by Domenico Montanaro
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Julia Steers
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A Huck of a showing: In our opinion, the biggest news in the New York Times/CBS polls of Iowa and New Hampshire isn’t the Democratic dead heat in the Hawkeye State. Nor is it Hillary’s seemingly comfortable lead in New Hampshire. Nor is it even Thompson in fourth place in Iowa (at 9%) and sixth place in New Hampshire (at 5%). Rather, what jumps out at us is Huckabee narrowly trailing Romney in Iowa, 27%-21%. Per the
Times , “[N]early every one of Mr. Huckabee’s poll measures in Iowa … was encouraging: 50 percent of respondents had a favorable view of him, compared with 7 percent who said they viewed him unfavorably.” Is Huckabee’s surge more real than some have thought? Of course, as we’ve mentioned before, he has significant shortcomings when it comes to money and organizing. But for the first time, it seems, we can ask this question: What happens if Huck wins Iowa?
*** Weekend at Bernie’s: Former book publisher Judith Regan is claiming in a lawsuit that the News Corporation forced her to lie about her relationship with Bernie Kerik to protect Giuliani. How much will GOP voters care about this new Kerik-related gossip? The Giuliani campaign would like to know the answer to the question. They do seem confident that voters outside of New York City won't care. However, this story could get legs -- but it depends on the other GOP candidates picking up on a storyline that would call for them to bash FOX’s parent company. It’s a fascinating dilemma. One thing is for sure: this story keeps Kerik in the news for yet another day.
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the report of a News Corporation executive trying to protect the presidential aspirations of Rudy Giuliani. *** Up, up and away: Speaking of Giuliani, his campaign has announced that it will begin to air its TV ad this week. The spot, which will run in New Hampshire, touts his record as New York mayor. “They used to call it unmanageable, ungovernable. A large majority of New Yorkers wanted to leave and live somewhere else. It was a city that was in financial crisis, a city that was the crime capital of America,” Giuliani says in it. But: “We turned it into the safest large city in America, the welfare-to-work capital of America, and most importantly, the spirit of the people of the city had changed. Instead of being hopeless, the large majority of people had hope.”
*** South Carolina showdown? There’s some interesting South Carolina news today: Clinton is upping her spending in the state, while Edwards becomes the first Dem to go up with a major TV buy there. Keep this in mind: There could be 18 days between the Dem contests in New Hampshire (January 8) and South Carolina (January 26). That's a lifetime in politics, and if Clinton loses the first two states, don't be surprised if South Carolina becomes a MAJOR showdown state -- much like it was in the 2000 GOP presidential race. It could be a last stand for Clinton, Edwards, or Obama…
*** On the trail: Giuliani campaigns in Iowa, then North Dakota, and then South Dakota; McCain raises money in California; Obama is also in California, where he unveils his innovation agenda at Google headquarters and later holds a campaign rally in San Francisco; Paul stumps in New Hampshire; Richardson holds a conference call tonight to mark Mi Familia con Bill Richardson Day; and Romney makes it three in Golden State, raising money in Newport Beach, Upland, and Riverside.
Countdown to Iowa: 50 days Countdown to New Hampshire: 55 days Countdown to Michigan: 62 days Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 66 days Countdown to SC Dem primary: 73 days Countdown to Florida: 76 days Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 83 days Countdown to Election Day 2008: 356 days Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 433 days
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