First thoughts: Viva Las Vegas
Posted: Friday, November 16, 2007 9:37 AM by Mark Murray
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First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
LAS VEGAS -- If last month’s debate in Philly was the moment when Democrats and reporters realized that the Clinton coronation -- with a crown of diamonds and pearls? -- was postponed, last night’s will be remembered for Clinton effectively fighting back, Obama sticking to his guns, and the gap between those two and everyone else widening. The Clinton vs. Obama spat exposed the true fissure in the Democratic Party: generational and ideological. Edwards found himself on the outside of this fight; he was hurt especially by the fact that Clinton and Obama were standing next to each other, while the former North Carolina senator was off to the side.
*** Dr. No: Clinton ducked the drivers’ license controversy that has dogged her since Philly, because all she had to utter was one simple word: "no" (that she didn’t support giving illegal immigrant drivers’ licenses). Indeed, she didn't have to answer why she waited more than two weeks to give a definitive answer or why her “no” seemed inconsistent with her past statements. Meanwhile, the theatrics between the moderator and Obama over whether he was answering "yes or no" on the issue gave Clinton the moment on immigration her campaign was looking for. Will this be the Clinton YouTube moment they push around? We'll see. On the flip side, Clinton’s about-face on NAFTA from what she said about the trade deal just one year ago was striking (and perhaps something reporters look into). Nobody on stage jumped on it -- but it's perhaps a bigger flip she'll have to answer for than the war.
***
A swing and a miss: As for Obama, he did fine. But early on, he missed a major opportunity, which displayed his inexperience at debating. When Clinton hit him early on health care, Obama simply defended himself from the attack, rather than deflect the attack and counterpunch with the 1993 health-care reform failure. It was an easy hit for him, and he missed. Clinton is winning on "experience," not because of the practical experience she has as a former chief executive (she's never been one), but the experience she has as a politician, as a debater. Clinton would not have missed a similar opening. But Obama got his YouTube moment when he got to challenge the moderator on the issue of being a pessimist. Look for THAT in an email box near you VERY soon.
*** Those boo-birds: A final Clinton vs. Obama point… Hillary really benefited from the audience responses. An organizer for the debate told First Read that each campaign received 22 tickets, while the state party and UNLV invited the rest. But just how many of the rest were Clinton supporters? Because their booing when Edwards or Obama confronted Clinton was distracting to the candidates and threw them off. The audience was supposed to play a role via the questions they asked; instead, they played a MAJOR role in helping Clinton have home-field advantage.
*** First impressions count: As for Edwards, he just wasn't at his best tonight. His attempts at hitting Clinton early on fell flat. That little "planted question" line was out of place.
What's interesting is that Edwards seemed to get it, and went back to his comfort zone and ended the debate a lot stronger than he started. Of course, first impressions are everything and Edwards didn't make a strong first impression at this debate. David Yepsen's declaration this morning is not helpful to Edwards, but he also warns Clinton to not bury Edwards too quickly or else face the possibility of a stronger Obama who unites the anti-Clinton vote.
***
The rest: As for the rest of the field, Biden -- again -- had a good night. He keeps doing well at these debates; we'll see if he can use this to propel himself in Iowa. Richardson, by the way, had one of his better performances, possibly his best. But his response that he has always Yucca Mountain will likely give him headaches from Nevada reporters. Dodd didn't get a lot of time, but when he did speak, he seemed to be on message.
*** Enter Lou Dobbs? There is some speculation today that Lou Dobbs might run for president. Seriously. Writes the Wall Street Journal’s John Fund: "After months of telling reporters that he ‘absolutely’ would not consider leaving his highly-rated CNN show in which he crusades against free trade and illegal immigration, Mr. Dobbs posted a commentary on his Web site last week predicting a surprise new presidential candidate in 2008. The mystery candidate is an ‘independent populist . . . who understands the genius of this country lies in the hearts and minds of its people and not in the prerogatives and power of its elites. Friends of Mr. Dobbs say he is seriously contemplating a race for the first time, although it's still unlikely. They spin a scenario under which the acerbic commentator would parachute into the race if Michael Bloomberg, the New York billionaire and favorite of East Coast elites, enters the field as an independent."
*** On the trail: A day after last night’s debate, Nevada continues to be the center of attention: Clinton hosts a discussion on renewable energy before holding a campaign rally in Reno; Edwards tours a Henderson, NV hospital with SEIU nurses and then holds a press avail with them; Romney is also in the state, where he attends a Las Vegas Chamber of Commerce roundtable; and Hunter stumps in the Silver State. Elsewhere, Biden campaigns in Iowa; Edwards heads to California to picket with striking Writers Guild members; Giuliani addresses the Federalist Society in DC; McCain campaigns in New Hampshire; Romney later hits a fundraiser in Provo, UT; Tancredo is in New Hampshire and Vermont; and Thompson stumps in Florida. Also, Bill Clinton campaigns for his wife in New Hampshire before addressing the Young Democrats of America National Fall Conference in the Granite State.
Countdown to Iowa: 48 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 53 days
Countdown to Michigan: 60 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 64 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 71 days
Countdown to Florida: 74 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 81 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 354 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 431 days
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