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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



More oh-eight: The debates are set

Posted: Tuesday, November 20, 2007 9:13 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

The three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate were announced yesterday. The first one (on domestic policy) will take place Sept. 26 at the University of Mississippi. The veep debate will be on October 2 at Washington University in St. Louis. The next one (a townhall with Internet questions -- snowman questions anyone?) will occur on Oct. 7 at Belmont University in Nashville, TN. And the last one (on foreign policy) will take place on Oct. 15 at Hofstra University. For the non-town-hall debates, candidates will sit at a table with a single moderator, and will answer questions on eight, 10-minute “issues” segments. The debates will be 90 minutes long and will begin at 9:00 pm ET. Moderators are not picked yet; they’ll likely be picked during the summer of 2008.

The New York Times notes that New Orleans “took offense” to not being selected, “with a leader of one Louisiana advocacy group saying she had been told that the city had not recovered sufficiently from Hurricane Katrina to act as host of such an event. New Orleans was one of 16 finalists and has attracted major conventions since the hurricane devastated much of the city more than two years ago.”

NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli put together some good bullet points on the latest CNN/WMUR poll showing Romney leading in New Hampshire with McCain and Giuliani in a virtual tie for second.
-- People in New Hampshire really do hold a grudge against Thompson for spurning the state. Only 38% of Republicans say they’ll consider voting for him, while 50% say they won’t consider it under any circumstances.
-- Giuliani and McCain seem to have the largest reservoir of goodwill out there, with more than 50% of voters saying they’d consider voting for him.
-- For all the hype about Ron Paul, 61% of Republicans say they wouldn’t consider voting for him at all. Only 19% felt that way about Romney.
-- Iraq is fading as a major issue, with only 22% of Republicans saying it was their top concern (down from 30%). Illegal immigration is moving up, from 11% in September to 16% today. It’s followed by terrorism/national security, at 15%.
-- By a slim margin, GOP voters say Rudy is the best candidate to handle terrorism. He got 33%, to Romney’s 31%. Romney holds big leads among those who say the economy, taxes or illegal immigration are the top concern. McCain’s big lead was on handling Iraq. But if that issue is fading, does that mean he will be, too?

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Comments

"For all the hype about Ron Paul, 61% of Republicans say they wouldn’t consider voting for him at all."

Don't forget about NH independents!  As well, in the topsy turvy GOP contest... we MAY actually get to the convention next summer with no candidate having 50% of the delegates.  And IF that's the case... and IF iraq is the issue next August... it's entirely possible that a few hundred (undecided) GOP delegates could look at Ron Paul and say "he can win because of Iraq and we agree with him on everything else."

Unlikely?  Yes.  But possible... and wouldn't it be fun?!?!  Probably Todd, Russert and definitely Matthews LIVE for that stuff!
I love it...the GOP, which ignored New Orleans into ruins is now passing N.O. by because..hey, you know, it's in ruins!
What's my bet they'll hold their convention in Julie's NYC?
How many republicans would not consider voting for Ron Paul if he was running against Hillary? Ron Paul could pull her civil liberties/ anti-war base right out from under her and expose her as the hawkish big-government supporter that she is. And isn't that what this election comes down to for republicans--Keeping Hillary out of office. Let her run against our Constitution and Bill of Rights!!
OK, so let's ask the question: How many NEW republicans would vote for Ron Paul? meaning how many people switched to Republican just to vote for Ron Paul? Would you do me a favor MSNBC Paleeeease. Call GOP and find out how many new Republicans have changed their party affiliations this year? This is the story, this is why he is not polling high. Get it? Got it? Good.

I wish the media would get to the bottom of this instead of regurgitating old hash. This is BIG news guys and you are my last hope in the MSM. I used to watch all the news, then realized FOX was tainted, more and more I only watch MSNBC, but if you guys don't wake up, there is no where else to go.
Let's not confuse conservatives with Republicans because conservatives will vote for Ron Paul RINOs want nothing to do with him because he won't further their agenda.
Regarding Ron Paul, there is a very recent blind poll by Zogby that indicates Ron Paul leads all his opponents. This type of poll has revealed something that many of us already know. When people hear Ron Paul's message regarding the issues they like it.

As an advocate of responsible reporting I'm sure you will look into this poll and be reporting that news soon?  I would hate to think your network will continue the censorship of say Fox News not believing their own polls after two recent debates wherein Ron Paul won.  Also as you are aware CNBC pulled their poll results, when Ron Paul won their debate.
 
How are we to believe any polls you provide when the actions described above are swept under the carpet?

What is wrong with letting people have honest media...jeez you'd think the media was owned by Corporations that profit from war or something!
Who cares about these polls?  I don't want to vote for who the media will think is going to win.  And I don't want to vote for who is leading the polls.  I want to vote for who -I- want to win.  Period.

What ever happened to the media reporting the news and what occurred, instead of bringing in all these "political analysts" to interpret the news for us?
The biggest complaint that foreign interventionalists in the GOP seem to have about the concept of non-intervention is that we need to learn from history, which they say shows us that Neville Chamberlain's adoption of a non-interventionist policy toward Germany in the 30's led to the rise of Hitler.
Okay, point taken. But it's now seventy years later, and we are much more paranoid about developing threats around the world and are able to scrutinize what everyone else is up to in the most minute detail via satellite surveillance, etc. Stationing a police force around the world may appear to put a damper on terrorist activity but will not do anything to absolutely guarantee prevention another attack in the future. What WILL eventually happen, as the Soviet Union discovered from its expensive reign over eastern Europe and foray into Afghanistan, is the burden of maintaining such a presence eventually bankrupts the nation that's attempting such omnipotence.
It is possible for us to craft policies going forward that do not violate the Constitution but also use the lessons of history to increase our vigilance against letting ourselves become less vulnerable to blindsided attack.
Ron Paul will be luck to cresst 10 percent anywhere.
Ron Paul is not a republican
Ron Paul is a 911 "troofer" and friend of Alex "black helicopters" Jones.  A great deal of ron Paul's support comes from stormfront.com and other neo-nazis
"For all the hype about Ron Paul, 61% of Republicans say they wouldn’t consider voting for him at all." - Mark Murray

Classic slam by the NBC News political team. Should we take it to mean 49% would consider voting for him (among Republicans alone) despite establishment efforts to pretend he doesn't exist. Realistically, the Republican contendors are currently matching up like this...

http://www.truthalert.net/Republican%20Presidential%20Candidate%20Rankings.htm

As well, a more in depth argument on behalf of the good doctor...

www.thecaseforronpaul.com
Ah, good. Now that Ron Paul's polling well in NH, contradicting the pundits once again, the talking points have to be re-invented. "Yeah, but 61% of the warhawks polled won't ever consider voting for him." Yeah, I kind of figured they wouldn't.
Dear Friends:

As you can’t help but notice, it’s an election year. I usually spend them in a state of disappointment and disgust. If you would have told me 6 months ago that I would find an honest politician who says what I believe and genuinely cares more about people and principles than polls and special interests, I would have laughed. My sides would be killing me by the time you told me he is a republican from Texas. But he can, with our help, be the best president of our lifetimes. His name is Ron Paul, and he can be the reason that people don’t cringe when they hear ‘Texas Republican’ and he can be the reason for America to be admired and respected by the world again.
I’m sure I’m not the only one who has said, “If there was just someone who ran who was honest and cared about the people of this country,” or, “I wish I was motivated to vote for someone instead of against someone,” I urge you to please look into Ron Paul for yourself and see that, for over 20 years, he’s proven himself to be one of, if not the most honest politician in Washington. He’s like “Mr. Smith goes to Washington—‘Season 20’.” This may be the best candidate for president we will ever get a chance to support, but the window is closing.
Unfortunately, the people who own the media are same ones that buy off elected officials of both parties. In all fairness, though, they own a lot more than just politicians and media outlets. Lobbyists don’t waste their time with Ron Paul because he votes in accordance with the Constitution and Bill of Rights. His vote is not for sale, and he doesn’t give money to special interests from the peoples’ pockets. He has never voted to raise taxes and wants to cut corporate welfare, government beaurocracies, and a trillion dollars being spent around the world. If he gets elected, the American people don’t have to pick up the tab while billion dollar corporations pay less and have more rights than the average American. Obviously, that makes him the last person you want for the job when you have given millions to other candidates that will support your causes.
When you hear that Ron Paul is unelectable or crazy, stop and think about what makes the others so electable and sane. The fact that more and more people are becoming sick with our government becoming more and more intrusive and incompetent means that we need a change. When someone tells you that someone is electable, look at what they’re giving you. In 2004, John Kerry was supposed to be electable, odd that he was a member of Skull and Bones, just like George W. Bush. It’s the illusion of choice, but in the end we’re all just ordering off the menu they had printed before we came to the polls. Every major candidate, in both parties, is a member think-tank groups that hold their meetings secretly and discuss their plans and agendas for bettering the world. How can they meet in secret, all sit down together (right and left) and then come out and onto the floors of the House and Senate, and screw it up so bad? We get the choreographed actions and tough talk, just like professional wrestling. Something is rotten and we need a change. Ron Paul is the only candidate we should elect, because he is the only candidate who has our best interests in mind. And that makes him extremely electable.
There has not been a single caucus or primary held yet, the entire race is speculative at this point. Especially for republican candidates, the race is wide-open. I ask that you please not look at the issues through the lens of democrat or republican, and see that the issues that affect us as Americans are so neglected, distorted, and confused that we need, for at least one election cycle, to stop the madness and agendas, by putting “The Champion of the Constitution” in the office of President to restore our nation; before we get more lost and adrift in a sea of terror, inflation, and corruption.
Ron Paul is respected as an expert in economics, and he sees what is on the horizon. He wants to end the private, non-government institution of the Federal Reserve (‘you’re not rich when you have a million dollars; you’re rich when you own the bank that prints the money everyone has to use’). Ron Paul wants us to have our currency to be backed with something of value; he wants this to protect us. When we spend in excess and just print the money because we have to cover the bill, our money loses value. This is what he means by Inflation Tax, and it is already starting to happen, which is why our dollar is losing its value against every other nations’ currency. He wants to take care of our people here with the money that we spend overseas because he believes that charity and defense should begin at home. He wants to let young people opt out of Social Security. Although he is one of the only members of congress who Never voted to spend a penny of social security, he would still take care of those who need it by saving it with programs we don’t need as much.
Ron Paul genuinely cares about people. He was a flight surgeon in the Air Force for 5 years. As an obstetrician, he has delivered over 4,000 babies. He treated all in need whether they could pay for it or not, and he has more insights into what is wrong with the health care system than most anyone in Washington. He knows what it means to save a life from death, and he knows what it means to bring new life into the world. He’s mad about the conditions that these lives must endure because of corrupt politicians, and he’s running to make a stand: to give the American people their nation back and stop the agendas of those who would have us give up our liberty, money, sovereignty, or anything else they want to manipulate us out of.

Here are some things you should know about Ron Paul:
►He voted against the war in Iraq and the PATRIOT Act, and he wants to put and end to both.
►He voted against NAFTA, CAFTA, GATT, and every other bill that would give away American sovereignty or    
   jobs.
►He defends the Constitution and Bill of Rights at every turn, so you know what to expect from him.

The Iowa caucuses are coming soon. I envy those of you who have the opportunity to take part in them. You know we would be there too, if we could. If you’re a democrat, he cares more about stopping the war and restoring your civil liberties than any of your candidates. If you’re a republican, he cares more about stopping illegal immigration than any other hopeful. He has never voted to restrict the 2nd Amendment, or any of them for that matter, and he is pro-life (although he believes this is not the job of the federal government, but rather the states, to decide for themselves). This is the one candidate who could unite us all under individual liberty, and stop the partisanship that is ripping us apart. Stop and think about what ‘Liberty’ means and see how our founders, in their brilliance, would rebel against an overly oppressive king and establish a nation of checks and balances. Since he has never voted to increase the power of the executive branch, he would, like the reluctant general, be the best person for it. We were given a system where the people would be empowered and the government obeyed the will of the people. What do we have now? Eighty year old women being taken out of their wheelchairs in the airport and humiliated by security because stopping a middle-eastern traveler might be ‘profiling;’ it is beyond insane, and we are being desensitized to where this is really leading. Thomas Jefferson once said, “When the people fear the government, there is tyranny. When the government fears the people, there is liberty.” I believe we can have liberty, and I think we can have it with security; and I think we can have them both and be prosperous, but I don’t think we’ll get any one of them if anyone but Ron Paul is elected. This election cycle, please take refuge in the Constitution, from the agendas of ambitious politicians. We could use 4 years of someone with the honesty and altruism of Ron Paul to get us back on balance. In the time it has taken me to write this, you could have caucused. On January 3rd, please take an hour and go to caucus as a republican. If Ron Paul doesn’t get the nomination, vote for whoever you like; but please show up for him and show the political establishment that people still want an honest person over a professional politician. Think of what the original patriots of this country endured to give us the Constitution and Bill of Rights; we need to keep it before another pre-selected, electable politician gets a chance to cut a little more away from us. It was much harder for our founders to give us this framework than it will be to sit in a heated building for an hour. If not, next November we’ll all be saying the same thing over: “It’s too bad there’s no honest politician who cares about this country or the little guy.” January 3rd will be the only chance to support Ron Paul and what he stands for; and We the People need all the help you can give us.
"It is possible for us to craft policies going forward that do not violate the Constitution but also use the lessons of history to increase our vigilance against letting ourselves become less vulnerable to blindsided attack. "


If we don't shoot or torture everyone who looks at us funny (or might look at us funny in the future) it's just like appeasing Hitler all over again.

Don't be bringing your common sense around here - this is Bush Country!
Correction, 39%
Lets see, Ron Paul, Constitution, Soveriengnty, individual liberty, public servants not overlords, protected borders, real value economy, military: to protect America first, let enemies kill each other, not Americas children, our troops. Ron Paul, gold and silver, not fiat paper, no income tax to pay interst on fiat federal debt (debt due to fiat paper) (fiat debt) lock up SS funds for SS only, American military to protect Americans homes, not a world elite empire. Is there a choice, other than a fools choice?  


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