ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



The battle for Iowa

Posted: Tuesday, November 20, 2007 9:26 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

The new Washington Post/ABC poll isn’t the first survey in Iowa to show Obama ahead, but it's the latest. "The results are only marginally different from a Post-ABC poll in late July, but in a state likely to set the tone for the rest of the nominating process, there are significant signs of progress for Obama -- and harbingers of concern for Clinton. The factors that have made Clinton the clear national front-runner -- including her overwhelming leads on the issues of the Iraq war and health care, a widespread sense that she is the Democrats' most electable candidate, and her strong support among women -- do not appear to be translating on the ground in Iowa, where campaigning is already fierce and television ads have been running for months."

More: “Clinton retains a comfortable lead among Iowa voters who consider strength and experience more important. She is supported by 38 percent of Democrats, compared with 19 percent for Edwards, 18 percent for Richardson and 12 percent for Obama, according to the new survey.” But: “She appears more vulnerable on questions of character. Thirty-one percent found Obama to be the most honest and trustworthy, about double the percentage who said the same of Clinton. While about three-quarters credited both Obama and Edwards with speaking their mind on issues, only 50 percent said Clinton is willing enough to say what she really thinks.  Forty-five percent said she is not sufficiently candid.

The Des Moines Register talks to local Democrats who are concerned about the increased nastiness of the Dem contest. Will Iowa Nice prevail and punish a candidate or two, or do Dems want to see how these candidates take a punch? 
 
Iowa Nice certainly didn’t stop Clinton and Obama from jabbing each other yesterday. Clinton "suggested that her colleague from Illinois was not fit to oversee a U.S. economy where more families are struggling to keep their homes and pay medical bills. She avoided mentioning Obama by name, but her campaign staff later confirmed that she was talking about him when she said: ‘Every day spent learning the ropes is another day of rising costs, mounting deficits, and growing anxiety for our families.’”

“Speaking in Knoxville, Iowa, Clinton added: ‘We need a president who understands the magnitude and complexity of the challenges we face and has the strength and experience to address them from Day One.’”

Obama, who is halfway through his first Senate term, sounded a feisty note when asked to reply at a news conference here later in the morning… ‘I am happy to compare my experience to hers when it comes to the economy," Obama said. ‘My understanding was she wasn't Treasury secretary in the Clinton administration. I don't know exactly what experience she's claiming.’”

The New York Times adds, "After weeks of sparring about foreign policy, health care and leadership vision, Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Obama turned to the economy as a new proxy for their fight over experience."

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this post appeared yesterday on the obama/clinton experience thread:

And 8 plus years of giving sloppy second blow jobs is sexperience for POTUS? Other than fellating her philandering husband during the 90's what other experience has she gleaned from being married to a president? It is unbelievable that so many Democrats have yet to see just how much this lady is hated... hated even by those in her own party.
Jimmy Chicago Il. (Sent Monday, November 19, 2007 2:48 PM)


Does it meet your standards? Is obama now open to attacks on his race, can we question the size of his size of his private parts?

Please elaborate

It isn't the first but it is one of the very few:

Polls:  http://www.pollster.com/08-IA-Dem-Pres-Primary.php


7 polls in Iowa in Nov. and only one has Obama up
Tofun@disney.com

I realize you are not an Obama supporter but why do you connect this ad to him?  The post you copied was wrong and distasteful--so is yours.  Please let's have a day free from this kind of stuff.
Looks like the Iowa winner will be Obama. NH? Obama. South Carolina? Obama.

Good thing Hillary is winning the national polls.
The media are the ones that keep pushing the idea that Hillary has more experience. That is the big lie that keeps on being propagated. What elected office has she held other than U.S. Senator of New York for a short time? Has she negotiated treaties or trade agreements? Has she held summits with world leaders? Did she bring relief to New Orleans during the Katrina disaster? Has she changed the economy? Has she worked in the business world? What legislation has she sponsored since being in the U.S Senate? These are the types of questions people should ask when looking at Hillary's "experience."

She abandoned her Arkansas roots to seek a safe Democratic state to run for office in because she probably couldn't get elected in Arkansas. She may have had an office in the White House during her husband's administration, but doesn't every First Lady have that same privilege? What did she do in that office other than direct the behind-the-scenes defense of her husband's defenseless acts?

Let's take a real look at Senator Clinton's experience instead of just annoiting her with the crown of experience without having really earned it.
Orin,

That's not how democracy works:-). NH is a different ball game than Iowa. They are more independent minded. And South Carolina is all about passion and connection. Iowa is all about organization.
'...“She appears more vulnerable on questions of character. Thirty-one percent found Obama to be the most honest and trustworthy, about double the percentage who said the same of Clinton...'

WHO ARE THE 15% DEAD HEADS who think Hillary is honest ?
If you are one of these people:
PLEASE SEEK IMMEDIATE PSYCHIARTIC HELP !

Do not delay !!
15% Think Hillary is 'honest' and 'trustworthy' ?

'...about three-quarters credited both Obama and Edwards with speaking their mind on issues, only 50 percent said Clinton is willing enough to say what she really thinks...'

Those of you who think Hillary to sy what she thinks......
CALL 911

Talk about an 'empty suit'
She tells you NOTHINTNG about her stands

Her campaign admits it has a 'primary election mode'... anti-war
...and a 'general election mode'...she voted to go to war with Iran with the Lieberman-Kyl bill to looj 'strong'

Let's see how Hillary's attempted smear tactics with Robert Novack affect her credibility


Hillary Clinton, 15 years of dishonesty, scandals and divisiveness

Dot, the poster of that nasty ad is an obama supporter
First Read (Chuck Todd, Mark Murray):

A friend of mine who is out their in India on a business trip asked a great question: Are we electing President of America or President of Iowa?

His point is that Indian democracy is dependant on all states and the voting happens all at the same time for all states so that we choose a leader for the country.

Why cant that happen in America as part of true democracy like India?
the voters will decide who the nominee will be, not the media and their bogus poll numbers, iowa will be between obama and edwards, much to the medias disgust, if I were in iowa the fact that the media has done everything in it’s power to shove hillary down their throats would be reason enough to vote for any other candidate, people grow weary of being told hillary is something she isn’t a bazillion times a day, it becomes painfully annoying cubed
Tofun@disney.com

Okay, if you know that for a fact, I stand corrected and I apologize. I just hope we can all keep that sort of comment off this blog.  I think we can all be adult enough to disagree but still maintain some standards of civility and good taste.

the south will not vote for Obama------many men will not vote for Hillary----that leaves Edwards,Biden or Richardson---not a bad selection
Run Barack run. We need real change not cosmetic change.

Obama 08
Congratz to Barack!!!!! Was the poll taken after the CNN( Clinton News network)hillary lovefest?If so, then it shows that the voters of Iowa agreed with 99.999999999% of the country that Wolf & company threw hillary a Big party in Vegas.Barack appeals to voter's who want Real Change, not just words to the effect. I was starting to wonder why van had stopped his daily Poll results, Now I know why, his girl is in a Freefall & the parachute aint opening.That is a good thing for AMERICA!!!"DELUSIONAL THINKING BY COMMON SENSE AMERICANS IS OVER"
Tofun, Dot is making a fine point.  There are plenty of hateful, moronic posters saying all sorts of offensive things about the candidates.  In no way should their comments be attributed to the candidates nor to the candidate's other supporters.  Why bait them by addressing their comments?  Especially on a new thread on a new day?  And why stoop to their level by posting something equally hateful about another candidate?  Frankly, all the  sex comments, whether it be cigar jokes or whatever the heck it is you are talking about, are seriously creepy.  This is a political blog, if you're interested in talking about people's private parts, I'm sure there are blogs out there for you.  Try a Google search.

On another note, hooray hooray hooray for the Obama campaign, I know what I'm giving thanks for this week!
Tofun, I find it helpful to keep in mind that every board regardless of subject is prone to people who enjoy flaming others just to stir up trouble.  Others just don't seem to get that stating your opinion in the most inflammatory way possible isn't productive.  I try to respond to attacks just once and in a firm but reasoned fashion, and not get pulled into a name calling contest.  Sometimes it's hard to separate the poster from the candidate, too.  If an anonymous poster on a blog said they wish someone could get a clean shot on Dick Cheney I don't see that as being representative of mainstream Liberals any more than I think it's representative of mainstream Conservatives to say 'nuke them all and let God sort it out'.  The relative anonymity of the Internet leads some people to say things they'd never consider in person.
And Clinton's decline is confirmed today by a new general election poll from Florida that has her crushed against all Republicans... Also today, Udall looks VERY strong in New Mexico. Shall we call that a pick-up? Both polls: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/11/morning-roundup-udall-looks-strong-in.html
For any of ya who want to know, Tofun AKA Tuck from realityville!!!!!
And Clinton's decline is confirmed today by a new general election poll from Florida that has her crushed against all Republicans... Also today, Udall looks VERY strong in New Mexico. Shall we call that a pick-up? Both polls: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/11/morning-roundup-udall-looks-strong-in.html
Daniel, NY (Sent Tuesday, November 20, 2007 10:56 AM)

------------
I just read that post, and it does not say that.  It merely says that Clinton loses in head to head matches with GOP candidates in Florida according to one recent Rasmussen Poll. And it states it has to do with the DNC primary controversy in that state.  I said it before, that whole mess was typical republican orchestration....right out of the rove play book.   If we lose Florida it has nothing to do with our candidate....but rather, because of the DNC stupidity of punishing Florida.
Hillary supporters, with all honesty, I cannot understand why you would attribute experience to Hillary Clinton.  As first lady, her only policy foray was a failure, in large part because of her own incapability and inflexibility.  As a Senator from my state, her votes for war in Iraq (and for potential war with Iran) have been an embarrassment.  And, she has demonstrated that she has a flat learning curve, voting for the Lieberman/Kyl amendment, five years after admitting that she never thought that President Bush would use the Iraq 'use of force' resolution to actually take us to war.

In all seriousness, her judgment belies any claim that she makes for the value of her so-called 'experience' and I don't think that she has any right to this mantra of 'experience'.  It's a smoke screen to mask a lack of commitment to policy.

Iowa is interesting because it's a place where the voters are actually plugged into this primary election.  Voters are stripping Hillary of the name recognition window-dressing.  When these engaged voters actually compare the substance of the candidates, Obama is the choice (as of today).  

This ABC/Washington Post Poll, is only a poll and things can still swing either way but right now I like our chances.  The inevitability thing is gone and that in itself is gratifying for me.  I want a real race and I think that the people of Iowa are providing for one.  Thank-you people of Iowa, thank-you for your careful consideration of these choices; this a true landmark election.
Obama '08
Dot, and others... I agree its childish what the poster wrote, but I am deeply offendded that Mark and CO. seems to think that sexual (verbal) assults on Clinton are okay to post...
Imagine if Obama was attacked on his race.

Why wont Mark and Co. respond to this? they've responded ton a different thread to why they don't post ealier.

It seems THEY BELIEVE that sexual assualts on female canidates are acceptable to post.

I'd like to know if that is true, or if the item slipped thru... or if they would delete racist attacks.

Come on guys, respond.

(there was also a post about Clinton taking "sloppy seconds"... nice)
The trend is clear.  And it is not Hillary.
The sad thing is that the dems by trashing hillary or other dem candidates simply give more free ammo to the republicans to use in the general election.   Stop the infighting!
ThoughtfulCitizen, NH: '...His point is that Indian democracy is dependant on all states and the voting happens all at the same time for all states so that we choose a leader for the country.

Why cant that happen in America as part of true democracy like India?...'

A national primary would give all the advantages to the candidate with the MOST MONEY
That would throw the elections to corporate interests even more than they are now

Starting the primaries in small states allows candidates to actually meet people
It's called 'retail politics'

The alternative is slick overly produced and focus group tested commercials
Wanna have advertising people determine the elections, even more than they do now ?

This allows a less funded candidate to compete
It dosen't always happen

But, I think Huckabee is making a move on the Republican side.
This would not be possible if we had a national primary

I also suspect that he Iowa caucus goers and NH voters take the elections a little more seriously than the rest of the nation.

How many people in your state are paying attention to the race, right now ?

Not many in the 'right on' SF Bay Area


Tofun -- we have a pretty liberal posting policy here. After approving plenty of posts ridiculing Bush and Cheney, making fun of Romney's religion, and noting that Obama is a Muslim, we're not sure it would be fair to exempt Clinton from oral-sex references. We do our best to screen posts that are personal attacks towards other posters, as well as those that contain inappropriate language (and for that, we take it to mean f-bombs and other four-letter words). We're not perfect, and things sometimes get posted that shouldn't -- but we've decided to have a liberal standard here. If we delete any mentions of oral sex in the White House regarding the Clintons (something that happened in the 1990s), then about a quarter of the posts here wouldn't be posted. Thanks for reading and posting.
Dear Mark,  Thank you for posting ALL messages.  I really don't want to live in a free country that doesn't allow free speech.  I agree those messages were in poor taste, but I'm an adult and I hear worse things said in the malls!  Anyway, I just usually zip right by them and ignore them, which is what a lot of others should have done instead of giving them all this attention.  I wanted to say thanks to First Read though for treating us like adults and not children.
Mark Murray. My Hero.
Obama at 30 to Hillary's 26?  Add to that all the voters these poll traditional miss, including 18 year old first time voters, mobile phone users, Republicans who are re-registering as Democrats in order to vote for Obama, and the overwhelming number of supporters of other candidates who will make Obama their second choice in a caucus, and you begin to see why Mrs. Clinton is running scared.  Obama has more publicly elected experience than she has, the hubby card is getting old, and there is nothing else in her bag of tricks.....
Thought you liberals were all about free speech....

guess that doesn't concern the Clinton's......

you know how the Clinton's love free speech......

"We can't be so fixated on our desire to preserve the rights of ordinary Americans"

- President Clinton (USA TODAY, 11 March 1993, page 2A)

In other words, the clinton's are against free speech.


The sad thing is that the dems by trashing hillary or other dem candidates simply give more free ammo to the republicans to use in the general election.   Stop the infighting!
pat huntington ny
----------------That argument is bogus. Let the candidates duke it out. We want to nominate someone that can best represent our party.

Enough of Mr. Nice guy, Hillary Clinton cannot be trusted. I am tired of lies upon lies. I want someone with conviction and principle. No more belt way.

Obama all the way.
-------------------------------------

Yeah, Tofun, i agree with the others,

How do yo know that gross post was from an Obama supporter? Most Obama supporters like him BECAUSE he's so positive.

The problem alot of Hillary supporters don't get is that ALOT of people dislike Hillary. Not just republicans, not supporters of other candidates, but average Joe Shmoes DON'T LIKE HER.

I would bet alot more of that garbage will come up (from republicans) in the general if Hillary is nominated.

I don't condone posts like that ( i almost think they should be deleted, but i guess people really should be able to speak freely...) and i thought that particular post was just really gross and offensive.

All that said, the fact is Clinton DID have oral sex IN the whitehouse, and i am SURE that the repubs will bring up that along with all the other Clinton baggage from the 90s.

I wish Hillary's supporters would stop complaining about unfair attacks (and i AGREE they are unfair) and realize that is what Hillary would face in a general.

Those disgusting negative attacks IN ADDITION to the fact that she really is inexperienced and not a strong candidate, will mean the Dems lose the whitehouse again.
Jerry, If you thought liberals were all about free speech, does that mean that conservatives aren't?
If what the polls say are true Hillary is in a Heap of trouble. The polls suggest Hillary supporters focus more on strength and experience than honesty and character. Firstly, the only experience Hillary has is covering up the truth as she exhibited in the hiding of Vince Foster and Whitewater subpoenaed      documents.                                       Secondly, we have had fifteen consecutive years of cover-ups lies, secrecy, indictments,corruption and scandals, and it is time we choose a president with courage, honesty and character, it is time to abandon the business as usual status quo. Sorry Hillary, you do not qualify.
Oh, please, please, please,please,please nominate Obama.
Jerry, If you thought liberals were all about free speech, does that mean that conservatives aren't?

New Independent (Sent Tuesday, November 20, 2007 1:28 PM)


Anybody who makes a statement like Bill Clinton does not believe in free speech.
Forget the polls... except this one...

Mark Penn (privately) projected a 75+% closure (decided voters) by Thanksgiving.

That number is as of yesterday, 48%: a clear repudiation of the "frontrunner."

The Clinton's are having leftovers for Thanksgiving...

"We can't be so fixated on our desire to preserve the rights of ordinary Americans" jerry, as usual you speak to mislead.  This is a partial quote out of context.  The full quote was made in the context of support for the highly popular Brady Bill and its intent to see that our neighborhoods don't become Wild West free for alls in which gun play is common.  The full quote is "we can't be so fixated on our desire to preserve the rights of ordinary Americans to legitimately own handguns and rifles -- it's something I strongly support -- we can't be so fixated on that that we are unable to think about the reality of life that millions of Americans face on streets that are unsafe"
jerry, I know your IQ is pretty darn low, but you really ought to read a civics book and find out what "Free Speech" means.

It has nothing to dowith posting trash a message board/


sorry, mark , but posting your "sloppy Seconds" about Clinton is pretty digusting..


And to you Barakits.... go back and look at what's his names other posts.. he's a obama supporter.
Didn't Penn just last week predict 'If the election was held today, it's Hillary in a landslide!'? That man is smoking something.
Mark Murray:

While I appreciate the need to be balanced, I think the comment stating that a Senator and former First Lady performs sloppy second blow jobs has no place in political discourse.  It is insulting, it is crude and it has absolutely nothing to do with politics.  I would hope that you would want the blog with which your name is associated to be better than some junior high bathroom where kids scribble nasty insults about each other on the walls.  But alas, it seems that is the direction First Read is heading, with few exceptions.

Such a pity.

OK, you're right.

It should be: The Clintons (not the Clinton's) are having leftovers for Thanksgiving.

Anyway, they are.


Having leftovers...


Clintonian should ask Bill why he had oral sex in the white house in the first place, if they are so worried about being attacked for it?
LOL.  A woman wants to perform oral sex on you in your office.  It's the stuff pornographic movies are made of, and Bobo wants to ask Bill why he did it?  I would think that is fairly obvious.
demos are gonna  self  destruct no need for the  repubs to  do anyting keep up the good work hillary


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