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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

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Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



Fred: I need at least third in Iowa

Posted: Tuesday, November 20, 2007 2:26 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy and Domenico Montanaro
ORANGE CITY, Iowa -- For the first time, Thompson acknowledged he has to finish in the top three in Iowa in order to remain a viable candidate.

In an interview with the NBC Sioux City affiliate, Thompson was asked, "You still have some ground to cover here in Iowa; polls show you fourth. Come Jan. 3, will you be happy to be in the top three or do you have to win Iowa?"

“Neither,” Thompson said. “I probably don't have to win, but I have to do better than [fourth], and I'm planning on doing better than that. …We're about where we need to be right now. We haven't spent as much time out here. We didn't get in the race as early as some others, but we're going to make up for lost time.”

The latest polling in Iowa shows Thompson at 10% and in fourth place. This is down from 16% in his one-time second-place showing in late September, a couple of weeks after his official entry into the race.

Something has to give in the Hawkeye State. Romney has consistently polled atop the state, but second place has been a different story. Giuliani has been there; Thompson made it just that once; and, more recently, Huckabee sits in second. Giuliani and Thompson both say they need a top-three finish. If neither does, what will that mean for their bids? Will Giuliani be able to recover in Florida or Thompson in South Carolina? Either way, both would like the positive coverage third would give them as opposed to fourth.
 
Also, this morning, the week before Israeli and Palestinian leaders are scheduled to meet in Annapolis, Md., to discuss the future of their on-going conflict, Thompson talked about the summit before 100 people in a coffee shop here. He said there is not much reason for optimism.

"They're coming together in Annapolis shortly for a conference, between the Israelis and the Palestinians to see whether or not they can work out their differences," Thompson said in response to a question about what America's stance should be towards Israel. "But there's not reason for great optimism there to tell you the truth. This has been a longstanding thing. …These are tough, tough problems, and a part anyway, of the Palestinian Authorities are committed, apparently still, to the destruction of Israel.

"I think we need to stay involved. Obviously peace is to be greatly desired but we need to be realistic and understand that we can't impose a peace on any other sets of nations or would-be nations in that part of the world. Especially with regard to something that's been going on so long with such deep divisions."

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While Fred Thompson and some others are on the ropes, Ron Paul is on the up and up...

http://www.truthalert.net/Republican%20Presidential%20Candidate%20Rankings.htm
Who is this guy again?
It seems Fred does not have a very good chance in this election
What a coincidence.  Hillary said the same thing.
Who is this old fart ?
He may need a third, but I'll bet he settles for a "fifth."
He will be lucky to finish at all, the old fart.
So if Paul pulls off an upset and comes in third in Iowa with the help of people switching to Republican the night of the caucus, does that mean Thompson and Giuliani would both be toast with a fourth place or lower finish?  And McCain too?

Furthermore, say Huckabee comes in first in Iowa in that scenario, and Paul has momentum and independent voter support going into NH; could we then end up with a Paul/Romney/Huckabee finish in the Granite State that effectively buries every campaign but the two dark horses?  I find this scenario fascinating, even moreso because no one has really considered it.
Giuliani is reported in talks with Hulk Hogan and Thompson has been trying to lock up either The Great Kahli' or some of the cast members of "Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon'. This, after Huckabee not only recieved an endorsement from marital artist Chuck Norris, but also from the 'Frans Kakfa of Pro Wrestling', Ric Flair.
If Thompson does finish fourth, and especially if it is a distant fourth, does he drop out of the race?  Do Thompson supporters then move to Huckabee?  In such a scenario, while it wouldn't help Huckabee much in New Hampshire, Huckabee could be ready to make a move in South Carolina.  Afterall, he has Nature Boy Ric Flair appearing with him at the Clemson-South Carolina game this Saturday.
Alert.....Ron Paul has just been listed as one of and the sole presidential candidate in GQ's 2007 Men of the Year.  Now that is news. I have to say at the rate Ron Paul is moving up in the polls, I don't think there is going to be much room for Thompson.
News Flash....At the rate Ron Paul is going up in the polls, there will be no room for Thompson.  By the way, Ron Paul has just been listed as one of and the sole Presidential Candidate in GQ's 2007 Men of the Year Honorees.  That is awesome, lets see how many, if any of the main stream media will print that story, he surely deserve some press on that.  He is the only candidate with Integrity and his truth and honesty is spreading to the American public everyday. Ron Paul has my vote and support.

Look him up at http://RonPaul2008.com
and see for yourselves.
I was wondering why Fred Thompson thought that he could make it.  There was too much hype that he was the last great hope for the GOP.  I don't think that he could make it.  Ron Paul has a much better chance, and I don't think he'll make it either.  
Do not underestimate the powers of Fred Thompson.
I would vote for him in a split second over all the other candidates.  
Fred says, "These are tough, tough problems, and a part anyway, of the Palestinian Authorities are committed, apparently still, to the destruction of Israel."

But why is the blame placed just on Palestinian Authorities?  Why doesn't anyone have a problem with the fact that Israel came to Palestine and attacked Palestinians who were living there in peace? Doesn't anyone remember this?  Why do all politicians (except Ron Paul) make it sound like the Palestinians are just being difficult?  How would you feel if you had been kicked out of your home for no reason?  I just think there needs to be less bias from America's politicians.  
Typical left-wing responses. I supposed the first lady of deceit would help our country in foreign affairs, healthcare, and military. If you had to guard her like some of my friends in the SS then you would know the truth.
Fred Thompson, the Comet Kohoutek of the 2008 race
I don't see why Fred Thompson's candidacy is considered a hoax. He's about as real a person as can be found. So, he's been a politician in the past and has a young wife, that doesn't mean he wouldn't be a good leader for this country. Keep him in mind.
I don't see why Fred Thompson's candidacy is considered a hoax. He's about as real a person as can be found. So, he's been a politician in the past and has a young wife, that doesn't mean he wouldn't be a good leader for this country. Keep him in mind.
Fred is my first choice, but I would also vote for Rudy or Mitt.  Huckabee/McCain are pro-illegals and there is no chance that I would vote for either.
"If you had to guard her like some of my friends in the SS then you would know the truth. "


No need. You sound like a typical right-winger so I believe every scurrilous rumor you deign to breath about a Clinton.
I've not considered voting for any one other than Fred Thompson. All you have to do is look into his eyes and listen to him speak to know he is a man that will not lie to the American public. For me truth, honesty and a level head will get my vote. I just simply trust him.
Why bother discussing Fred Thompson's candidacy, or any of the other "clowns" ! They're all headed for a major "buttkicking" in "08. Give America back to the Americans!!....The Republican/neo-cons have left this country in shambles! .... Smarten up before it's too late!!!
Fred Thompson has said what again? He sounds like a hick version of Giuliani or Romney.
The one to watch right now is McCain.  If Thompson falters, McCain is the one who will benefit the most from it.  Huckabee is interesting, but he doesn't have the organization or money to move him past New Hamphire.  If Huckabee beats romney in Iowa, I see McCain beating Romney in NH.  Heading into south Carolina, McCain will have an advantage.  

Interesting to see if Guiliani can even finish in the top 3 in any of the first three states (iowa, NH or South Carolina).  If you have a Huckabee, Romney, other (any canadite but Guliani) finish in Iowa, I do not see Guliani finishing in the top three in NH (My guess would be a McCain, Romney, Huckabee finish).  His big play right now is electability and not being able to win these two states would show me he may not be electable.
I like Fred Thompson. I like him in Law & Order, and I really liked him as the boat captain in that Red October movie.
out of all the candidates running, fred has the least amount of ideas, he will be the abortion-fence candidate and  put his feet up on the desk and wait for things to happen. We can't afford another man in the white house who is not pro-active, laziness is not a virtue for the leader of the free world.
Mike Huckabee is Fred Thompson except with a possible shot at winning.  Plus, experience in an executive position (such as, governor, or mayor of a really large city) is a much better qualifier for a potential president than any amount of time spent in a legislature.  However, I do not consider "spouse of an executive" as being equivalent to "executive experience."  Sorry, Hillarity.
Fred is the only candidate that can clean up the Bush, Clintonm, Bush mess of the last 20 years and return us to the values and strengths of the GOP that Reagan and Lincoln taughts us
Play Nice needs to get his/her facts straight.10 minutes after Israel became a state in1948,THEY were attatcked.Any Israeli attack has been in response to terror.How would you feel,play nice,if our neighbors shot rockets at us everyday?oh,but its still the fault of The Israeli's,right?
Fredhorn Leghorn is the man. I say,I say
  Play Nice,you must either be joking,or woefully uninformed.There has been NO race of people attacked more through the ages than has Israel.And I would like to know the dates that Palestine EVER lived in peace,even amongst themselves.The Wahabbi faith believes we are all infidels,and therefore deserve to die.I'm not sure about you,but I believe all religions deserve a modicum of respect,ONLY if they are tolerant of other beliefs.I respect no religion that teaches hate and death to their own children.Face it,their greatest leader was a moron named Arafat,who robbed his people blind.I say that any country that uses W.M.D.s against ANY sovereign nation,should be retaliated against by EVERY country in the world.
First let me say I am a Democrat, but here is my take on these candidates.  It will not matter, if Guiliani finishes low in the first three states.  He is going to be in this race no matter what.  All the grey area going on between all of these other candidates is going to keep him in the race.  Even though he is the most socially liberal Republican, I dislike him the most.

I have thought Huckabee would be the one to make a charge months ago, before the Iowa straw poll, and so he is.  I think if he can do well in the early states, then the anti-Rudy vote will push him forward.  Fred Thompson will be out of this quickly, when he gets trounced by everyone in the early states.  He's not a bad guy, but he doesn't want to be president badly enough.  McCain is a great candidate, but he lacks party support.  Mitt's needs to win more than Iowa to really stand a shot.  As I see it, come Feb 5th, it will be Guiliani, Huckabee, and Mitt duking it out.  I hope the Republicans change their mind and reject Guliani.  He is a chip off the GW Block.  If I have to choose between him and Clinton next November, I'll be looking for a third party candidate.
Anyone who votes for Ron Paul is dooming America to death by international standard.

As for Fred...if he drops out, I am urging all FredHeads to withhold their vote and let the rest of the American people deal with their decision to support Hillary Clinton. Including the Pauline Republicans.


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