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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Fred: Huck surge may be short-lived

Posted: Wednesday, November 21, 2007 1:38 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Thompson called it “very interesting” that Huckabee is second -- within the margin of error of first -- in recent Iowa polling. “I wonder who will lead it next week and the week after that and the week after that,” Thompson said. “It’s a fluctuating situation in Iowa as always, you know, everybody’s just going to have to do the best they can do and see how it turns out in the end.”

Thompson was just warming up, as he went on to imply that Huckabee’s surge may be short-lived. “Well he is, he’s kind of new to the first tier I guess you might say, and so they probably don’t know him as well as they know some of the rest of us,” Thompson said. “But that’s a situation that will be cured shortly. That’s the reward you get for doing well in a poll. You start getting attention, and I’m sure that’ll happen with regard to him as it’s happened to all of us.”

As far as him saying yesterday that he needs to finish in the top three in Iowa in order to remain viable: “Well I’m not sure exactly how that came out,” he said. “I try to make it a point not to pick any particular numbers. I said I needed to do well here, and I think everybody -- but it’s difficult to tell what well is at this stage of the game. I think we’re doing just fine. I think we’re where we need to be right now, and if you look back at the history of Iowa and Iowa caucuses you know that it’s never over until its over, and that the thing to do is to be steady and strong and I think what we’re doing now is showing good results as evidenced the reception I got here today.”

Thompson also used the line putting down Romney and Rudy that he used on This Week on Sunday. "Managers are the type of people leaders hire....," he said.

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"actors are the type of people leaders laugh at while watching TV"
The Huckabee campaign will respond accordingly to any attacks their way from Fred 'zzz' Thompson.

Thompson would without a doubt lose the general election. He doesn't inspire independents nor democrats. Gov. Huckabee has proven time and again his ability to garner independents and also the African American vote. (He received 48% of the African American vote in his gubernatorial election)

Fred is falling in all of the polls, because he hasn't lived up to the hyped up candidate he himself promoted. Remember that cigar response to Michael Moore? Fred has zero experience in leading people. Bill Frist of Tennessee and him entered the Senate around the same time and Bill Frist became the Majority leader of the Senate, and Fred became the attorney on Law and Order.
Fred, step aside and let better experienced candidates like Gov. Huckabee who has a total of 14 years of leading a state (3 years as Liet. Gov., then 11 years as Gov.) run this country. Thank you.
"“I wonder who will lead it next week and the week after that and the week after that,” Thompson said. "


The man has a mind like a laser beam.

Is this useful wisdom from the enlightened Fred?....hmmm....
nope!

Go Huck!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'd vote for Huckabee before any of the other GOPee's
If Fred is such a great leader, why is his campaign doing so poorly?

Typically great leaders are also competent.  

I'm voting for Romney
Eric,
If Fred is so incompetent, how come the editors at National Review Online have called him Policy Fred:

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=MGQxMjc5ZWEyMTg1Zjc3MjY0MjY5OGYzYzZjYTkwMzI=

Also, if he is so incompetent, how come Larry Kudlow speaks so highly of Fred's stance on the economy:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2007/11/19/opinion/main3523629.shtml

Seems to me he is the only adult running for President who has a firm, sober grasp on the issues facing our country.
[quote]Seems to me he is the only adult running for President who has a firm, sober grasp on the issues facing our country. [/quote]

Rob, I beg to differ. You clearly haven't listened to any of Gov. Huckabee's policy speeches.



I'm going to have to respectfully disagree with you JT.

First on immigration and his willingness to have a Mexican consulate in the state capital of Arkansas and his support for Bush's immigration proposal and his own support of giving illegal immigrants drivers liscenses:
http://arkjournal.com/2007/11/newsflash-mike-huckabee-supported-bill.html
I also disagree with his support of the nanny state:
http://www.breitbart.tv/html/4958.html
There are also some ethical issues that are beginning to arise while he was governor of Arkansas as well:
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1107/7000.html
Huckabee is a charimatic personality, unfortunately for fiscal conservatives and federalists like myself, he has the wrong answers:
http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NmI2ZWZmYTEyMTZhMGI3NTM2ZDRhZTNiMzk2YzU5ZDQ=


Who will be leading in the polls next week and the weeks after? Well Fred, I'm pretty sure it won't be you!
Huckabee does not believe in states rights.He thinks the supremes should decide instead.He is a preacher ---like George Bush----blah,blah,blah----all who do not agree are immoral,unpatriotic,and more blah blah blah.Haven't you people had enough of the Bush Doctrine?
Huckabee does not believe in states rights.He thinks the supremes should decide instead.He is a preacher ---like George Bush----blah,blah,blah----all who do not agree are immoral,unpatriotic,and more blah blah blah.Haven't you people had enough of the Bush Doctrine?
You're right, Fred! The polls will be changing from week to week. And when people finally find out about old Huck and his ethical issues as governor....he'll drop off the radar screen!!
As for me...I'll stick with the candidate that has no baggage!
Ron Paul....PERIOD!!!!!!!!!
Rob -
You have to understand that Eric is from Seattle. There's nothing but a bunch of latte drinking fems up there - men do not exist in the state of Washington.
We don't sweat the pre-primary sissyfied arguing that comes from nowhere supporters of wishy-washy flip-flopping nanny-stater supporters. The records will bear each candidate out. When Thompson wins the nomination the wannabe pundits will be silenced.
Thompson is a pompous ass. His campaign has imploded and he will fail to win a single delegate.
As a conservative, I avoid candidates with lots of "sizzle" but no "steak"; I prefer substance over style.

My top 3 issues are: (1) National Security (2) Illegal Immigration (3) Economic Future. No RINOs or flip-floppers need apply when these issues are at the fore! For me, this rules out Romney, Huckabee and Guliani. Fred is tough as h3ll and can take whatever crap would be dished out by whoever the Dems decide to run as a candidate.

This country has to get back on a track in which constitutional/federalist principles are strictly adhered to. Thus, I favor Fred Thompson (http://Fred08.Com) - check out the links posted by Rob - Knoxville, TN to see lots of other good stuff.

At this point I'd favor a Fred Thomspon (Pres)/Duncan Hunter (VP) ticket.
During the Spring and Summer months, my husband and I eagerly awaited the announcement from Fred Thompson that he was indeed going to run for POTUS.  We have always liked him and were firmly "in his corner".

However, once he did announce, we were forced to re-evaluate our support of him almost immediately.  I mean no disrespect, but he truly lacks the SOUL for running; the animation, if you will. By all appearances, there's just no fire in his belly for the job.

That in itself is worrisome because clearly, if he shows no motivation for the race, how would he endure the most draining and taxing of positions?

But I have other questions now that I've been able to listen to him speak and follow his replys to journalists:  is his mind completely clear?  His answers seem to ramble with no precision or directness of thought. After reading many of his statements I find myself rereading them and wondering what he just said. It seems that if he has no script, he has no answer.

Possibly this is simply his lack of true, personal desire for this office.  Or perhaps and because of that, he just hasn't kept up with current events. If not that - then I'm left only with the IMPRESSION... he's just not the sharpest pencil in the box.

I also find his ego a bit on the heavy side.  Many of us awaited his candidacy with great enthusiasm.  His high polling position in August/September was a direct result of our anticipation.  He's "top tier" today for the same reason.  However, his rapidly falling poll numbers are also corresponding to us as we continue to abandon ship before it goes under completely.  Rather than assume responsibility for this as his poor performance, he appears to want to blame others, or just hope it turns around for him. I just don't think he gets it.

I cannot vote for Fred Thompson just because he's "a good guy" or because "I like him".  The President of the United States is a demanding office and requires uncompromising alertness and mental agility.  He does not exhibit either in this race.

Sen. Thompson needs to head home to Tennessee and enjoy his family.  I wish him well.  But if you and I are going to have any chance at putting a man of principle and integrity on the GOP ballot, we need to MOVE NOW while there's still a little time left.

I DO NOT want Giuliani or Romney to sink the nomination because we were too nostalgic to get off our dead horse. I like Fred Thompson, but he is not the right man at this time.  

After many hours of research and careful consideration of what's at stake, my husband and I are proud to now be supporting Gov. Mike Huckabee for President, the only candidate who unmistakenly shares our values and our vision for this great country.

Are you still supporting Fred Thompson but silently wondering why?  For the sake of our children's future and our nation, please give Mike Huckabee a serious look.  He absolutely will not disappoint you.
The Huckster is merely another "reinvention" candidate, just as Willard and Rudolph are.

You know what these three clowns are saying today. Now check their records with a fine-tooth comb to fully understand they're full of it....hit a few keys on your keyboard and find out what they'ld rather you didn't.
Fred is right, but wrong! Voters are pickin' der people!
Huckabee will suck his votes out of Iowa, and do a little better in South Carolina, NH will throw things off for the party, Rudy is the repubs Hillary, to much noise, not enough grown ups, Nixon was right in China and right about Fred, he is the dumbest man and does not need to be in the White House, no more weakness for nostalgia politics, WE GOT WORK TO DO!
Gotta stuff that bird, and whip those potatoes(Quail anyone?), Brussel Sprouts need wasin' and the yams won't cook themselves.
I think we are doin' well too Fred, we will send you home soon, don't you get weepy, it's just politics!
In the world of 24/7 news Fred is just too smart for most people.  His answers take a bit too long for the food fight crowd.  Most of the anti-Freds are too stupid or ignorant to debate issues so they just say he's lazy.  It's easy for them.

However if you take the time to compare what the candidates have written.  You will discover something.  Only Fred has written much of anything.  Fred understands the constitution and the issues of today.  Fred has actual plans to do something besides throw food at other candidates.  Most folks don't want to think about anything though.  They just want a fight and a sound bite.  
Mike Huckabee has risen too fast in the Iowa polls to make me comfortable. This is indicative of a popular vote more than issue based. I can't believe it is Huckabee's record that is moving him in the polls...I submit he is just the Christian Right's "second pick of the litter". Thompson was the chosen heir, but he didn't live up to his birth right and so now Huckabee gets the popular vote. Why wasn't Huckabee being supported like this from the beginning? He has been in all the debates.  He has stated his views for the last eleven months.  Why the sudden surge in the Iowa polls? I hoped to get away from popular voting when I left High School.

The challenges facing America will not be solved by a charismatic....can sell snake oil to anyone....type. I have to agree with Huckabee being a "good ole boy" and he would be a great neighbor, little league coach, Walmart greeter, football booster, cornhole partner, Pastor, Talent Show MC. I doubt that he is qualified to be a medical surgeon, chemical engineer, farmer, pharmacist,  etc. I don't believe Huckabee has the strongest resume' for facing the job description and challgenges place before the President of the United States.  We are in essence hiring someone to handle the job of President of United States.  We wouldn't hire some one on only his character, and personality.  The job requires so much more.  Huckabee might do well delivering the State of the Union Address, but what would the text of his message say about the decisions he made?


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