Dead heat in Iowa... still

Posted: Tuesday, November 27, 2007 10:59 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under: 2008, Polls, Iowa

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Obama and Clinton on the Democratic side and Romney and Huckabee on the Republican side are in dead heats in Iowa, according to a new poll out conducted by Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster.

First Read got a look at some of the numbers, and they show Romney at 26%; Huckabee at 24%; Giuliani at 14%; Thompson at 10%; McCain at 7%. On the Democratic side, Clinton and Obama are tied at 29%; and Edwards is slightly behind at 23%.

The poll was conducted from Nov. 23 to 25 with a sample size of 600 likely caucus goers from each party and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.

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Comments

Let the games and mud begin. It is a shame that We the People have to be subjected to this for 1 more year unlike other countries like Australia (good riddance to the Bush clone after 11 years) which their campaign lasted all of 6 weeks.

juan,ft lauderdale,fl (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:14 AM)

OH NO, Clinton has moved foward!

The Barakists will have a fit!

Tuck,Realityville,KS (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:18 AM)

More bad news for Hillary. She just can't pull ahead with the massive force of Truth and Passion behind Obama. Where voters listen closest, where voters meet the candidates and listen to their policies, and where voters scrutinize the candidates' ever moves, Hillary cannot pull ahead of Obama. Name recognition that's fueling her elsewhere, where campaigning infrequently goes, may give her an appearance of "being ahead" nationally, but where it counts, where people TRULY PAY ATTENTION, it's Obama-Country.

37 Days until Barack Obama destroys the establishment. America wants REAL CHANGE. Hillary just can't bring it.

Ron, TX (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:19 AM)

Hello..Mr. Obama, we are still awaiting your reply. Is it a yes or no ? The phone lines are open, and we are awaiting your reply.

The voters of America (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:19 AM)

I predict that this evening on CNN's Republican YouTube debate there will be massive applause by the Republicans in the audience and not one single word will be spoken about how unruly they are.Unlike the Democrats debate recently.

Vance Flint MI (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:22 AM)

Wow, I can't believe Huckabee's rise is actually being confirmed! Giuliani will probably help Huckabee out at this point.

And check the other poll of the day, the general election numbers from Gallup that have some great news for Democrats who lead 7 out of 8 match-ups: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/11/morning-diary.html

Daniel, NY (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:23 AM)

You can see why Hillary is running scared
She's getting desperate and that can't help her with voters

If she panics like this over a primary....
What would she do as President ?
Do you trust her judgement ?
Would she have to run to Bill for help ?
Would she have to have Bill tell the boys to stop 'Swiftboating' ner ?

Some President she'd make
A 'Strong woman' ?

Hillary Bo Peep has lost her sheep...

Sierra, SF (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:23 AM)

Hillary Clinton is in it to win it and win it she will

Fate (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:24 AM)

but hillary beats all repugs in head to head match ups. go hillary!!!

pat huntington ny (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:24 AM)

Good thing I don't live in Iowa.....
I'd be without phone service for a whole year or my answering machine would be dead by now from all the phone calls from people and machines......

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:38 AM)

The "heat" is on Obama, is it a "yes" or "no" ? Were waiting your "prompt" reply. Not "3 weeks" from now.

The American Voters (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:46 AM)

"600 likely caucus goers from each party and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%."

Whether the poll is accurate by chance is anyone's guess, but unless the target population "likely caucus goers" is derived largely from independently verified prior caucus goers, which no public poll ever is, the poll is statistically invalid!

Molly, Iowa City (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:48 AM)

Did I hear a yes or did I hear a no, Mr. Obama ?

Johnny V. (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:58 AM)

She drops one time and the entire state of Texas cheers. 2 full weeks later, when the numbers show an increase... they mean nothing. Which way do you want it?

Travis, Louisville, Ky (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 11:59 AM)

but hillary beats all repugs in head to head match ups. go hillary!!!
pat huntington ny
------------------------------------------
Your statement is not true because a new zogby poll indicates Hillary loosing to the entire republican. Here is the link.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2645320920071126

Bee (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:05 PM)

Hillary loses in head to head match ups. Edwards and Obama both win. You can't win the general election without independent voters. Clinton doesn't have as much support form indepdendents as Obama even though she's trying to be the centrist candidate. What does that say?

Dan, TX (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:07 PM)

"but hillary beats all repugs in head to head match ups. go hillary!!!"

Pat, what polls are you looking at? The recent GALLUP poll shows her in ties with "no statistical significance", in case you are not sure what that means, it means that she is not beating any of the leading republican candidates. So what polls are you refering to? Just curious?

I think you should just say what you like about your candidate, b/c when you start talking about polls then it will make your argument weaker as she begins to lose in the polls!

Crystal (Time for change) (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:08 PM)

The 'American Voters' just want a 'yes' or 'no' answer? I guess that cuts down on the whole 'thinking for yourself' thing.. So, which bridge are you guys selling?

Sid Merid (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:15 PM)

Johnny V. what planet are you from?

What is it with this "yes" or "no" thing? Did someone ask Obama a "yes or no" question and he failed to answer it? If so please show me the quote or tell me who asked him a yes or no question directly? I am confused.

Allegations emerged, his people came out forcefully and respectfully denied all the accusations. What is even funnier to me is they are basing it on papers that HE FILED with the FEC, and that the FEC has in their possession and who the FEC does not find anything wrong with, so it is just making those who support Clinton and speak about remind people about the illegal and corrupt things that she has been accused of doing.

Crystal (Time for Change) (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:16 PM)

pat huntington ny (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:18 PM)

Here is another news Clinton machine should be worried about.

http://suzieviews.blogspot.com/2007/11/hillary-clinton-and-top-aid-huma-abedin.html

Lek (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:18 PM)

Actually, the last Stategic Vision poll, conducted on November 9th-12th had Clinton at 29, Obama 27, and Edwards at 20. So Clinton isn't moving up. This just confirms what the ABC poll showed - that Obama is moving up! Clinton flat, Obama up 2, and Edwards up 3.

http://strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_111407.htm

Jessica, Wisconsin (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:19 PM)

The unfortuate part is that Hillary is in it to win, period - she made many remarks towards this way of thinking. But Barack Obama is in it to change Washington.

Robin, Montpelier, VT (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:19 PM)

with repubs and dems and press all over her she still is standing and still tied she will still win. it just ticks matthews and russett off.

Robert (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:23 PM)

It's really quite simple, Mr. Obama you answer yes or no to the question. $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

Johnny V. (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:23 PM)

anyone who doesn't like hillary is a doody head

TheQueenBee (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:25 PM)

Bee
Both polls came out the same day.

fun watcher (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:26 PM)

Jennifer, Savannah, GA (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:28 PM)

Don't count out John Edwards. He is still the best
candidate.

Philadelphia, PA (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:28 PM)

Do we really want a president that stands by as her husband sodomizes interns?

Monica, D.C. (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:31 PM)

Go look at the gallop poll my dear....and then piss off!
pat huntington ny
-----------------------------------------------

I am not going to let you mislead us just like Hillary mislead us into war in Iraq.

By their fruit we shall know them. No more Clinton and Mark Penn dishonesty.

Bee (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:41 PM)

Psst Ron? Obama was AHEAD of her last week. Now they are tied. So it is OBAMA that is losing ground, not Hillary.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:41 PM)

Hmmmm.....since when is a blowjob sodomy?? Did the repubs change the definition?

Steve A. Jonesboro IN (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:43 PM)

"Monica" --
Do you think other Americans are as obsessed as you are with the Clintons' sex life?
Maybe you should join a jr hi after-school circle jerk, and get some of this out of your system.

Jan, Nashua, NH (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:48 PM)

Bee, you have to understand that her supporters give false information just as "you know who". That's their way of informing America. And unfortunately, some are falling for it instead of researching for themselves. They are relying on America to just take their word.
Jennifer, Savannah, GA (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:28 PM)

Jennifer, you have to understand that your insulting generalizations are not appreciated. I would not mind at all if Hillary were nominated, and I would happily vote for her. I have never (and I do mean never) spread false information about her, here or elsewhere.

If you think about it, Jennifer, Hillary supporters are no different from those who support other candidates - except for one important thing. Hillary haters think it is perfectly acceptable to insult the character of those who back Hillary based on nothing but the fact that they prefer Hillary.

I'm wondering when these people will grow up and pay attention to the candidates and the issues, rather than whine and sling mud at everyone who doesn't think just like them. Probably not anytime soon.

No wonder so many people are fleeing First Read. It's a freakin' war zone for anyone who dares to say something positive about Hillary, or negative about the might Obama. The only opinion you are permitted to have here is pro-Obama or pro-Edwards or, more recenty, pro-Biden. Even the pro-Kucinich crowd is given greater respect than those who support or defend Hillary.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:49 PM)

Iowa is a three-way dead heat on the Democratic side with Edwards, Clinton and Obama. The media, which has tried to discount Edwards all year, will be surprised.

It will only get closer when Democrats begin to wake up (as was demonstrated in the Zogby poll yesterday) to the fact that Clinton can't win in November 2008. The Zogby poll showed Edwards BEATING every single potential Republican nominee while Clinton LOSES to every single one (including Huckabee!) by 3-5%.

Watching Out (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:51 PM)

Did you see the Livestream with Obama and panelists [several former Clinton appointees who agree with Obama] talking on Foreign Relations?

It was suberbly Presidential...something we haven't had in such a long time. Sound insights and the ability to comprehend /deal with complex issues.

It will probably be on YOUtube. I highly recommend it.

Just Jean (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:56 PM)

you guys realize that it is not cool to quote a candidate's catch phrase in a comment section? Honestly, how many people are reading this thinking, "you know I was undecided but since floppybutt42 said that hillary was in it to win it I think I will vote for her now". TURN UP THE HEAT!!! WHOOOHOOOOO!!! You guys crack me up.

your mom, plankston, puerto rico (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:58 PM)

To all of you that support Obama and Edwards,
Don't waste your time answering back at these incomprehensible people. They have no common sense. The best Candidates are Obama and Edwards. I can see Obama as President and Edwards as a Vice President. Stop wasting your time, do something worthwhile and be sure to go vote for Obama or Edwards, if you don't know who, Obama, he's the one thats gone throug poverty, not born rich like HRC Machine.

Kevin, Winter Haven, Fl (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:58 PM)

Go Hillary!!

Aidyn, NY (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:02 PM)

We just checked our answering machine and it's working. Yet we have not recieved a reply to the important question, Mr. O$ama. Did any presidential campaign staff,consultants ,advisors or yourself participate in any discussion about hopefund contributions ? a simple yes or no ?

The American Voters (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:03 PM)

Jessica, Wisconsin: What this Strategic Vision poll shows is that the Obama Iowa surge and the Clinton collapse are pure and unadulterated myths. Clinton's numbers are exactly the same in the last two ABC/WashPost polls and in the last two Strategic Vision polls. So, the Clinton collapse obviously has not occurred. Obama moves up by 2 points in one poll and 3 points in another. Statistically insignificant. The race is essentially unchanged over the past six weeks: Clinton is well ahead everywhere except Iowa, where its a dead heat. The only real news here is how all you polls-don't-mean-nothing Obamaphiles go crazy when a poll favors your view of the world, and how the media misrepresents the poll results and creates a false impression of an Obama surge.

Dazed and Confused in DC (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:06 PM)

The Iowans will vote for the Christian over the Mormon and Barack Obama, and his refreshing change, over Hillary C. That is my guess. It may be Obama vs Huckabee in the general.

David (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:14 PM)

I was having a laugh with a friend last night.....

I said "can you imagine if Iowa went to the Orange Bowl and everybody is sitting in the room listening to whomever is speaking, but watching the game".....

The head honcho says "everybody for Obama, stand up!"

Just then Iowa scores a touchdown and everybody stands up and cheer.....

The head honcho says "everybody for Obama, OK, meeting ajourned".....

A riot ensues as the Hillary people scream "we didn't vote for Obama!!!!!!!!!!!"

The next day, Hillary is beaten and she asks for a bi-partisan commission to investigate the voting.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:15 PM)

Why would any person in their right mind vote for Hillary Clinton? She might as well call herself a socialist since she is so far left. She will make this country less safe by withdrawing our troops from combat in Iraq. Funny, the democrats always talk how our troops are dying daily and why are we still there. Simple, we must eliminate the people who are trying to kill our troops. The people trying to kill our troops are terrorists. Remember them democrats, the ones who have attacked us before and would love to again. that is why we must stay on the offensive and take them out.

Jim Ward, Selden, NY (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:16 PM)

Hey, Hillary supporters! Wasn't it you people that were telling all of us a few weeks ago that Hillary winning was "Inevitable"? Wasn't it just a month ago that Hillary's campaign director Penn told us "Hillary will win the general election in a landslde! (if held that day, which to my knowledge, it wasn't)"

What's going on here? A little waffling about drivers license for illegals, and Hillary has crashed on the rocks? Now Team Hillary says "Iowa is not important. New Hampshire is not important. South Carolina is not important". Which state is important? And when will Hillary concede to the Democratic party's real nominee?

Mark Thomas, Carbondale IL (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:16 PM)

It is a dead heat in Iowa and it's telling us a lot about the candidates.

Hillary is furiously looking for any mud to sling around at anyone.

Edwards is busy taking public money ( a little hard to understand why he's taking the tax money of those far less fortunate when he's sitting on a personal fortune - the figure I saw yesterday was $30 million). Have we seen his personal financial disclosures yet? We don't donate to his campaign so he goes and gets our money another way.

And Obama is holding a foreign policy roundtable to listen to expertise from many fronts and continue to refine policy that is actually important for the American people.

Who seems more Presidential in the midst of this dead heat?

Laurie, Pittsfield, MA (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:20 PM)

BREAKER...BREAKER..COME IN BIG BUBBA. HAVE WE HEARD FROM OBAMA YET, ABOUT THE REVELATIONS IN CAMPAIGN FINANCE PRACTICES ?

Mr. T. (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:32 PM)

Again I keep perceiving blog plants who are rumored being paid by the text book campaign. They M.O. personal characerizations and mud throwing and not discussion. What is amazing here is the substantiation that Clinton has peaked in Iowa and has remained in that position since October while Obama has gained and Edwards remains locked just below them.

No matter where you sit it shows that the second choicers and the turnout will be the difference.

RWN, CO Springs, CO (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:33 PM)

Johnny V... The answer is Yes... Yes your head is up your @@@.

Ben, Chicago, IL (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:39 PM)

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