Dead heat in Iowa... still

Posted: Tuesday, November 27, 2007 10:59 AM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Obama and Clinton on the Democratic side and Romney and Huckabee on the Republican side are in dead heats in Iowa, according to a new poll out conducted by Strategic Vision, a Republican pollster.

First Read got a look at some of the numbers, and they show Romney at 26%; Huckabee at 24%; Giuliani at 14%; Thompson at 10%; McCain at 7%. On the Democratic side, Clinton and Obama are tied at 29%; and Edwards is slightly behind at 23%.

The poll was conducted from Nov. 23 to 25 with a sample size of 600 likely caucus goers from each party and has a margin of error of +/- 4.5%.

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Comments

Yt is actually Obama that has moved forward by 2 points, the same pollster had him at 27 two weeks ago. Clinton has remained at 29, she is the 3rd most liked, 60% of her supporters have never attended a caucus.

Her campaign goes negative two weeks after proclaiming that she won't attack democrats and 6 months after a painfully careful chat by the fireplace. Her going negative reminds how polarizing she is to the primary voters and everybody who is paying attention.

Yiannis, Baltimore (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:40 PM)

I see Hillary had almost DOUBLED her support in this poll since January 07 (from 15% to 29%). Sounds like a surge to me.

Sorry Hillary haters -

csh, IL (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:42 PM)

Laura Bush 2012! 8 years experience!

John Doe, Portland, OR (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:57 PM)

Pat, huntington
"-------
Go look at the gallop poll my dear....and then piss off!"

I think you should not want people to look at the Gallup poll b/c it shows Hillary losing or should I say "Not winning" against any of the top Republican candidates. It tells you off hand the difference in numbers is "Not statistically significant", which means there is no difference in the support among the candidates, she is NOT leading any of them!!

Crystal (Time for change) (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:01 PM)

Pat Hungtington, before you post another comment about Hillary beating repubs I think you need to read the comment I left for you above!!

Crystal (Time for change) (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:06 PM)

I have always liked & respected Hillary Clinton. The way she handled her husband's impropriety was with class. I find it ridiculous that people condemn her for her decision to stay in her marriage. She obviously has always known that her husband had a wandering eye; some women can allow this & do not feel that it is personal, but a weakness in a person that they love anyway. Even though I see Obama as a spokesman for change, I am a realist. He has chosen a sensitive issue that many Democrats and undecided voters are attracted to. Whoever is our next President has to work within the system, which is complicated at best & corrupt at worst. All of the prospective candidates address what their targeted constituency wants most to hear. I would vote for Hillary Clinton because I would like to see some BRAINS in the Whitehouse; she has a staggering intelligence, I believe Joe Klein, (TIME magazine) called it pellucid. Not that Obama does not have brains, but his smarts are different from Hillary's, and his upward rise is based more on charm and his ability to deliver a marvelous speech than his intelligence and grasp of important issues. Also, as attractive as Obama is as a new direction, young gifted and black, he may not be effective as President. It could be like Jimmy Carter again! I believe that Hillary would be able to handle the position admirably, & I firmly believe she would not have to depend on Bill. However, I would be happy if they did confer as Bill Clinton also has BRAINS. Lets get intelligence at the helm, PLEASE. The biggest obstacle is that Hillary has so many enemies and people within the party that seem to hate her, that she might not be able to swing the election. If the Democrats want to win the Whitehouse, they need to put the most electable candidate in the race. And this could be Obama. BUT IS THIS BEST FOR THE COUNTRY? Voters need to grow up.

Laura S. Fargey (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:10 PM)

Carrie, only a Hillary spokesperson would claim that Obama's rise from 27 to 29% within two weeks by the same pollster is Hillary's gain.

So you are wrong, Obama has gained on that poll, Hillary has remained at 29%.

Getting desperate as you are, will you now start quoting plls from August and average those too?

Yiannis, Baltimore (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:15 PM)

Hey Kevin, get your facts straight, bud. Hillary grew up firmly middle class.. not rich at all. So did Bill, in fact, he was less than rich. It's fine to disagree with her my friend, or decide to vote against her.. but it's not necessary to bend the facts. Isn't it great that all three of the democratic front runners grew up modestly? Compare that to the repubs. I think that's excellent!

Amazed, Atlanta (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:17 PM)

No wonder so many people are fleeing First Read. It's a freakin' war zone for anyone who dares to say something positive about Hillary, or negative about the might Obama. The only opinion you are permitted to have here is pro-Obama or pro-Edwards or, more recenty, pro-Biden. Even the pro-Kucinich crowd is given greater respect than those who support or defend Hillary.
Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:49 PM)
====

You are absolutely correct Carrie. I think it says something about her electability- she's hated by so many democrats, how is she every going to win enough over to beat the Republican in the real election?

Ron, TX (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:20 PM)

For the poll watchers:
Strategic Vision poll 11-14-07 (Clinton 29% and Obama 27%). Latest poll (Clinton 29% and Obama 29%)

Marbw (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:26 PM)

To all of you that support Hillary,
Don't waste your time answering back at these incomprehensible people. They have no common sense. The best Candidate is Hillary. Stop wasting your time, do something worthwhile and be sure to go vote for Hillary, if you don't know who, Hillary, she's the one that experinced, great leadership, suported by lots of experts in the fields, not like someone til now still not anwser the simple question yes or no.

? (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:33 PM)

FIRST READ AND CHRIS MATTHREW HAVE BEEN SINGING HIGH TUNES FOR OBAMA. PLEASE KNOW YOUR WORDS BEFORE YOU SING. CHRIS MATTHREW IS THE GUY VERY EASILY LIKE TO BUY "LINES", "SPEECH". HE IS SO RUDE AND OFTEN INTERRUPT HIS GUESTS UNLESS THEY AGREE WITH HIM FOR THE ISSUE. SICK OF IT.

AB (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:41 PM)

To the American Voters-- thanks for finally posting a question for which you are seeking a 'yes'/'no' answer!

In fact, you have stumbled upon how answers are normally derived-- by asking questions.

The next step is to make a statement, 'I think that so and so has not been honest with us because such and such.'

And that, my voting friends, takes you out of making passive aggressive demands and into voicing a proactive statement in life.

Whole different ball game.

Good luck!

Sid Merid (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:42 PM)

Are the lawyers in place yet to contest narrow losses by Democrats?

Richard, Washington State (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:46 PM)

New poll out this afternoon shows Hillary surging ahead of Obama in Iowa...and beating the top three GOP candidates outside the margin of error....

pat huntington ny (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 3:05 PM)

Ben from Chicago, I didn't quite understand your message. Did you say Obama answered all the questions regards to the campaign finance practice scandal ? Yes or no ?

Johnny V. (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 3:26 PM)

HILLARY ROCKS ! ROCK ON HILLARY ! hillaryclinton.com

Smiley (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 3:29 PM)

Did you hear the joke about about Obama and campaign financing ? Yes or no ?

Johnny V. (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 3:31 PM)

Say Ben in Chicago, please forward me your address. Me and the boys would like to stop by for a visit. Yes or no ?

Johnny V. (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 3:41 PM)

####NEWS ALERT#### OBAMA TO MAKE MAJOR CAMPAIGN FINANCE ANNOUNCEMENT, YES OR NO ?

JOHNNY V. (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 3:51 PM)

but hillary beats all repugs in head to head match ups. go hillary!!!
pat huntington ny
------------------------------------------
Your statement is not true because a new zogby poll indicates Hillary loosing to the entire republican. Here is the link.

http://www.reuters.com/article/politicsNews/idUSN2645320920071126

Bee (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:05 PM)

-------
Go look at the gallop poll my dear....and then piss off!
pat huntington ny (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 12:18 PM)

-----

Boy do you get cranky when things don't go your way. Kind of like your candidate who gets more and more negative each passing day that she's not in front by a landslide. No wonder she's losing. People see a negative campaign as divisive. That's the last thing people want.

By the way, she can't beat a Republican in the general. The independents won't support her in that massive a number.

Mike K, Denver (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 4:04 PM)

WTholyF are you incomprehensible moronic dolts talking about wanting a yes or no answer from Obama? If there were ANY controversy, don't you think we'd ALL have heard about it from one of the MSM's talking heads who all want Hillary?

HINT: They ain't talking about it. Not an issue. STFU

XOXOXO

Mike K, Denver (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 4:08 PM)

I was having a laugh with a friend last night.....

I said "can you imagine if Iowa went to the Orange Bowl and everybody is sitting in the room listening to whomever is speaking, but watching the game".....

The head honcho says "everybody for Obama, stand up!"

Just then Iowa scores a touchdown and everybody stands up and cheer.....

The head honcho says "everybody for Obama, OK, meeting ajourned".....

A riot ensues as the Hillary people scream "we didn't vote for Obama!!!!!!!!!!!"

The next day, Hillary is beaten and she asks for a bi-partisan commission to investigate the voting.
jerry/corpus christi texas
--------------------

*wipes up Cherry Coke from monitor* Thanks, Jerry.

Mike K, Denver (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 4:11 PM)

BREAKER BREAKER when will Senator Clinton release her White House papers (do we have them yet?). BREAKER BREAKER how will Senator Clinton impose her health care mandate (has she answered that question yet? nope instead she says she will wait and have to see). BREAKER BREAKER did Senator Clinton pay off Vilsak's campaign debt to secure his endorsement? (yep she did). BREAKER BREAKER did Clinton Hillraiser Norman Hsu funnel money at the campaign's request to people who endorsed Clinton for President (yep he did). BREAKER BREAKER your yes and no tirade on Obama is breaking up.

MK, Los Angeles, California (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 4:15 PM)

To me, this election is not about Hillary v. Barack or anybody else. It's about always having to talk about something else other than the issues. My fear is that Hillary equals another campaign about petty scandals (not saying that she is guilty of anything) instead of something that is actually going to effect our daily lives.

Like it or not - Hillary is a lightning rod - and I for one have had enough. She is a smart woman and my 8 year old daughter is rooting for her to be the first female president . . . but I am weary of the drama that surrounds her. I'm ready to get on with the business of running the country, and I don't think that the Republicans (and many Democrats) will let us do that if Hillary is the nominee.

Hillary is a remarkable and resilient woman - but this is not the time for this PARTICULAR woman to be president.

Nashville_fan (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 4:19 PM)

Jerry,

Your comment on orange bowl is hilarious. Keep it coming...hahhahahaha!!!!!

Bee (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 4:24 PM)

Johnny V and Mr T must be blog plants. We will call them Hillablogdrems, they only grow in the dark and thrive on manure. They is trying to make an issue out of a non issue. Do these clowns really expect a response here ?. The issue has been addressed.The main stream press recognizes it for what it is and has ignored it. T and V illustrate one point, it is pretty obvious that Barack Obama leads among the intelligent and educated and these guts aint it !

David (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 4:25 PM)

HIllary is the worst thing to happen to the Democratic Party in years. We're pulling a Kerry all over again, with some huge percentage of the party convincing itself that someone who would make a fine president would also make a good candidate. She will not. Edwards or Obama can both win the election and govern well. Hillary can't.

Evan, Lexington, VA (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 4:47 PM)

Interesting Ron Paul is not listed for this poll (yet). Because if you look at the last several Strategic Vision polls, RP's results go something like this: 3...4...5...

Did they really exclude RP this time, perhaps to avoid a 6 or 7? Or was First Read's "look at some of the numbers" just so fleeting that they missed Paul's entry?

Kevin Parker (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 5:06 PM)

I think the Hillary supporters are acting very childish and are having temper tantrums because she may not win Iowa.

Kathy (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 5:37 PM)

Hillary is going to be throwing more dirt over the Christmas season then when she did back in her professional mud wrestling days. She went by the name 'Queen Lezzy' for those of you interested.

Mike L (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 5:45 PM)

NOW IS IT YES OR NO MR. OBAMA ?

MR.V. (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 6:55 PM)

I cannot believe anybody would even consider voting for another Bush administration----sure are gluttons for punishment---every republican except Ron Paul is running on the Bush doctrine.Just what we need bigger military(the draft)more billions for the pentagon and Iraq war,More home foreclosures,losing more and more jobs,hate gays,hate women who make their own choices and who knows which cia agent will be outed next time?The hate Hillary crowd must be surged to this site.

HMT-MI (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 7:34 PM)

Hey, Monica,
Do we really want a president who is such a role model for high schoolers...goofed off, smoked dope, cocaine, boozed? How about one who says his foreign relations experience was when he was 6-10 years old in southeast Asia when he lived there? Man, oh, man, I just feel so much better about Obama knowing this good stuff.
I'll vote for Obama...for student body pres.

sam (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 7:42 PM)

Robin of VT

You said Hillary is in it to win and Saint Obama is in it to change Washington.

I'm sure you are right, St. Barak doesn't care one way or the other if he wins, only if he can "save" the world.

Oh, please! The bullsh** is getting so deep with your holier than thou comment that I'm standing on my desk just reading what you said.

HILLARY CLINTON is in it to win and to change Washington to real experience and quality leadership.

sps (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 7:47 PM)

Mr. Obama,
If you can NOT answer yes or no...just shake your head or circle Y or N.

If you are in it not to win as Hillary but to change Washington, surely an "honest" guy like you say you are can give an honest saintly answer.

sam (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 7:51 PM)

I'd like to see Huckabee against Hillary. She won't know what happened to her. And, on top of that, she has too many negatives. In a poll pitting her against any one Republican candidate, she loses all of them.

Brian Pearson, Amarillo, Texas (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 8:09 PM)

Guess what, "The American Voters"/"Johnny V." Obama has responded.

From the post: Obama attorney Bob Bauer said, "The law on this is quite clear and it has been clear for years: The contributions made by this committee are entirely lawful. Any suggestion to the contrary is not merely novel -- it is wrong."

You might think it's unseemly, but the majority of the money was not donated to early states. What I think is far more unseemly is Hillary buying former Iowa Gov. Vilsack's support with $400,000 to pay off his debts.

It's 2008, this kind of blind smearing doesn't work any more.

John M, San Diego, CA (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 10:24 PM)

Johnny V, American Voters or whatever chamelionic cover name or pseudonym you may want to adopt, please post your question first to your Hil-liar-ry and when she answers, we the Obamaians will give you the answer to your question.

Erz Siam (Sent Wednesday, November 28, 2007 10:47 AM)

Oh my goodness, Hillary Clinton could not even control her house, how can she control the White House?

Khan (Sent Wednesday, November 28, 2007 10:59 AM)

Please Laura, when it comes to being smart or being intelligent, don't even compare Hillary to Barack. Just go and do the background check on the two figures and after that come back and talk to me about Obama's intelligence and Hillary's

Siam (Sent Wednesday, November 28, 2007 11:06 AM)

The Zogby poll is complete crap - as are all interactive online polls. So, for all these people (especially the MSM) to put so much faith in that poll is ridiculous. Besides...if Zogby polls can be taken as gospel then John Kerry should be running for re-election.

Jeff, Melbourne, FL (Sent Wednesday, November 28, 2007 5:24 PM)

Khan, you sound like a rethug...and Michelle Obama.

Jeff, Melbourne, FL (Sent Wednesday, November 28, 2007 5:27 PM)

Is no one concerned about the unfairness of the primaries.

We have never really had this issue before where we are looking at 8 candidates on either side. I live in Georgia and last I remember my primary was in July. But by then because of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, the candidate we believe in will possibly have dropped out. California, Texas, and Florida carry so many electorals next November, but really have no say in the two people they will vote for.

What is the purpose of debates being televised across the country? It really does not effect me much, they should really be televised to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. Then just televise the debates across the country of the two chosen candidates.

Things are different than they were years ago, and I know from what it seems picking a candidate for each party has no real rules. Have we ever stopped to think that maybe the country as a whole should be choosing the 2 candidates??

Meredith, Atlanta, GA (Sent Saturday, December 01, 2007 10:47 PM)

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