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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC Political Researcher



FL poll: Huck surges, Fred falls

Posted: Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:14 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
Check out these new Florida numbers -- before the GOP debate there tomorrow -- showing Huckabee climbing to second place there and Fred Thompson dropping into single digits. Giuliani retains the top spot at 26% in the Insider Advantage/Majority Opinion poll; Huckabee is second at 17%; McCain is third at 13%; Romney is fourth at 12%; and Thompson is fifth at just 9%.

Huckabee picked up 11 percentage points and Thompson dropped 10 from the same poll a month and a half ago. Huckabee and Thompson are largely going after the same voting bloc -- Christian conservatives -- and Thompson has touted his potential geographic advantage in the South. Giuliani has led in Florida polling, but Thompson has been locked in a tie, if not in first, in South Carolina. But it will be interesting too see where he will be when newer polling comes out.

Romney dropped four points -- slightly outside the 3.8% margin of error -- from the last poll and McCain saw a three-point boost.

Insider Advantage/Maj. Opinion

 

11/26

10/3

Giuliani

26

29

Huckabee

17

 6

McCain

13

10

Romney

12

16

Thompson

  9

19

   +/- 3.8 %, 675 Republicans

 

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Comments

the sun must be too hot in florida for them to support rudy...they are such a naive group of simpletons who probably still think he saved us all on 9-11!  what do you expect from people who can't even properly punch a chad out of a voting card!
What did Ron Paul come in at?
these polls are such a joke.
Wow... huckabee does seem to be catching on.  I must admit I like what I have seen of him, but I am not quite ready to jump on board yet.
Hucksterbee...wait until the real america gets a taste of the narrow minded religious zealotry of this guy...poof he'll be gone
I hope Mike Huckabee can win the nomination. At least it will be an indication that the traditional Republicans have some chance of taking the party back from the neo-cons and "religious" fanatics that have hijacked it. I don't agree with all his positions but think he is the only Republican that will be faithful to the Constitution and work to do what is best for all Americans rather than cronies and the rich like the current crop of Bush and Cheney.
Huge gain for Huckabee: let's put all those questions about Huck's electability nationwide to rest! He's the clear conservative alternative to Giuliani.
these polls are such a joke.

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 1:31 PM)


That's funny, coming as it does from a punch-line...


Van
Some of us are avoiding "The Rush" and supporting Gov. Huckabee for President early!
Jerry's favorite must have come out near the bottom.
I am afraid Julie is it Jere.
What can you say? Hicks vote for other hicks. It's called the good 'ol boy system. I've lived in Texas all my life and this is how southern politics is played. What gives 'ol Huckabee more advantage is that he's also an ordained charlatan Baptist minister.
I hope Mike Huckabee can win the nomination. At least it will be an indication that the traditional Republicans have some chance of taking the party back from the neo-cons and "religious" fanatics that have hijacked it. I don't agree with all his positions but think he is the only Republican that will be faithful to the Constitution and work to do what is best for all Americans rather than cronies and the rich like the current crop of Bush and Cheney.
Dan H. Broomfield, Colorado (Sent Tuesday, November 27, 2007 2:10 PM)

------------
Are you kidding!  He's as right wing and religious fanatical as Bush and company.
ATTENTION: There are still seats available on the Huckabee Bandwagon. Anyone wanting to get on.

I love this guy, he's genuine, funny, humble, and would HONESTLY work to make this a better nation. Unlike the other guys who only want to win so that they can have their names added to list of prestigious men who we call "PRESIDENT!" Wake up America!! Give this man a chance to bring us back to that place, where we can become the nation our forefathers had envisioned us to be.
I knew Huckabee would break out. He actually worries me the most of all the Republicans in terms of the general election.

How ridiculous must the Thompson supporters feel?

Seriously? Huckabee's rise is starting to be out of control... and frankly entirely unexpected. The question undermining Huckabee has long been: Where does he go if he wins Iowa? Now it looks like he has somewhere to go! This latest detailed analysis of the race ranked him third among GOP candidates, and it seems that was right on: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/11/at-this-point-republican-race-is.html
Anyone wanting to see some telling video (with an accompanying column) from Thompson’s first week on the trail in South Carolina should give this a try:
http://goupstate.us/index.php/lanefiller/2007/11/05/fred_thompson_for_president_of_what_the_
Hicks vote for hicks no matter how unqualified they are. It's called the good 'ol boy syestem. Living in Texas I see it all the time. Another plus for "the Huck" is that he is a former charlatan Baptist minister.
Hicks vote for hicks no matter how unqualified they are. It's called the good 'ol boy syestem. Living in Texas I see it all the time. Another plus for "the Huck" is that he is a former charlatan Baptist minister.
Huckabee is such a loser. He looks like a fatter version of Gomer Pyle.
Huckabee welcomes the illegals. look at his position on that. Plus as the Gov of Arkansas he increased taxes by like 46%. Do your homework before hitching your wagon to his horse.
Ron Paul is the people's choice because he will restore our republic instead of selling it to special interests. He dominates in straw polls, debate polls, fund raising, web traffic and grass roots networking. I have created a website to support this statement.

Please visit www.thecaseforronpaul.com and judge for yourself.
noAnd he still needs to answer where all the money went while he was the govornor---yeah the world is flat Huckabbbee more right wing religous fanatics ------ PLEASE  Bush was more than enough of piousness while he goes about his daily chores in tearing this country apart.Perhaps they will put his face on the useless dollar bill.
I liked Huckabee until I learned of his position on illegal aliens.  For me, he joins the ranks of the likes of McCain, clinton, obama, etc.(total pandering sell-outs).
gooo huckabee... my favorite for quite some time.  he CAN win, and is the ONLY republican who can beat hillary imo.  
Mike Huckabee can run circles around Hillary and anybody else the Dems put up...and he'll enjoy every minute of it!  He's the only one that can beat them! Mike enjoys life and doesn't take himself too seriously like the other "starched shirt" republicans.  How many presidents have we had that had their own rock/roll band..how cool it that??  But on the serious issues, Huckabee speaks with authority and conviction (not the latest overnight poll) that the PHONY conservatives can't match.  People are sick and tired of politicians and corporate big-wigs who are selling this country to China, Mexico, India etc. GET A CLUE YOU ECONOMIC "CONSERVATIVES"...Americans DO need a job that pays better than McDonalds.  FREE TRADE is the god that has our country in economic straights!!  Mike understands that there is a differance between free-trade and fair-trade.  We cannot continue deficit trading with every other country in the world...the USA's house-of-cards will crash one day if we don't get our manufacting base back again!!    
Huckabee?  He's way too much of a zealot.  If he does win the nomination, the party goes down in flames.  But at least he's a principled zealot.  He believes in his hate - unlike Romney, Guliani, and McCain, he's been in bed with the religious right all along.  So I don't respect his positions, but I believe he believes them.
Huck is Will Rogers running for president.  With a populist bent and a passion for the average guy and gal, he manages with a sense of humor and great one liners not to take himself to seriously while having the crowd hang on his every word.  If only he can lasso the nomination.
Jared get some hick to show you how to submit our comments>
I have been telling people, Huckabee is not only electable, he is the best situated to beat Hillary in the General Election. Now the numbers are in to prove it. Huckabee beats Clintion by the widest margin: http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews2.dbm?ID=1393
Huckabee is polling 2nd in Iowa and Florida, and 3rd nationally 1-point behind Romney.

Donate now and help defeat Hillary Clinton:
http://tinyurl.com/2jjrbn
Wow. I really do believe I can vote for this guy. Even if I didn't appreciate his stand on the issues (I do), I'd probably still vote for him just because he's so likeable. I've seen reports from some disgruntled-sounding reporter in Arkansas saying Huckabee is mean and vindictive.  Huh?  After watching his patience and humor with some really moronic press folks and some deranged medical marijuana stalkers, I find it difficult to believe Huckabee has it in him to be mean. I wish some "real" reporters would do some research into Max Brantley's charges and find out what it is that drives his vendetta against Huckabee.  Did Huckabee hurt his feelings, call his paper a rag, take him off the press listing? What's especially disturbing to me as a voracious consumer of political news is the way the national media has been repeating this guy's claims - without checking for themselves. Maybe the claims are true, but for heavens sake guys, go do the research yourself. Repeating what one slightly unbalanced (my opinion) reporter in Arkansas says is not journalism - it's gossip. Be reporters, get out of New York, and do some leg work.
I think you will start seeing a McCain surge.  Huckabee is the flavor of the month, but his record as Arkansas governor is going to kill him.  Guiliani and Romney will go after him on raising taxes.  Fiscal conservatives will crucify him.  

Thompson looks like he is imploding.  Much of McCain's prevoius support started drifting to Thompson.  Now that Thompson is falling out of favor, McCain and Huckabee will be the ones benefiting mostly from this.

If Huckabee wins Iowa, do not be suprised to see McCain winning NH.  Iowa social conservatives dominate the Iowa caucas, Independents drive NH.  Social conservatives will rally around Huckabee, and McCain will dominate the independent vote in NH.  Romney will have a tough time recovering if he loses Iowa.

As for Guiliani, he has two things going for him.  9/11 and electability.  But the electability factor is starting to favor McCain more than him.  Guiliani is a brawler when it comes to campaigning so this may turn REALLLLLY ugly before it is over.
So, the NRLC endorsement Fred received, which the Huckster whined about with his alleged consistent stance on a pro-life amendment isn't true!?!?

http://www.christiannewswire.com/news/232094841.html

Undeniable proof when you see it in his own words, isn't it.

BUT, Huckster didn't stop there did he, he publicly ridiculed Fred for his Federalist approach on abortion when he held the same exact view less than a year ago AND discounted a pro-life amendment as wrongheaded...shame, shame Mikey, con artists get kicked out of town by sundown.
Huckabee's rise is no surprise. He is articulate, humble, funny, & genuine. He has the key factor to be electable..he is likeable. Clinton is one of the few Democrats that had this(most are smug,condescending, sarcastic know-itall types like Al Bore & Howard Scream. After these Huckabee is a breath of Fresh air.He is not out to buy the election like the other GOP bigwigs. When people actualy hear him they realize he is hands down the best choice. 10 & a half years as the Governor of Arkansas...winning in a state full of old Clinton cronies...Mike is the underdog that is about to take a big bite out of Rudy McRomney & old half dead Fred. GO MIKE GO!!!!!!
Yeah, where is Ron Paul in this poll?
Of the five candidates listed in the offered "poll", I cannot imagine supporting or voting for any of them.  Tweedle Dee and Tweedle Dum.  That someone of Huckabee's house plant intelligence level could be listed in second place is further proof, if further proof were necessary, of H.L. Mencken's barb that "Nobody ever went broke underestimating the intelligence of the American people".


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