December 2007 - Posts
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller and Mark Murray Edwards' third event of the day, a caucus-goer at the Pizza Ranch here asked a question that has been on everyone's mind: How can Edwards win the presidency within the limits of public financing?
The man said he had heard from other campaigns, specifically naming Michelle Obama , that Edwards would not have the finances to sustain his candidacy. David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, hosted a conference call and sent out a related spreadsheet this morning. Part of the spreadsheet crunched Edwards' campaign funding numbers, explaining that because the former North Carolina senator accepted public financing and its limitations, he would not have the funding to sustain his candidacy through the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 25.
Edwards jumped at the chance to counter.
"We have plenty of money to run a serious campaign,” he said, “but I just want to say how unbelievably weak it is to be arguing that you should be the candidate because you have more money than the other candidate. I mean, really -- does that convince anybody that that's who you should caucus for? You shouldn't even be here if that's what you're looking for!
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro , electable? Not so much, according to a blistering memo out this afternoon from Biden Communications Director Larry Rasky.
“[T]he evidence that Edwards is more electable is at best thin and is probably misleading,” Rasky writes in the memo, which reads more like it is straight out of the RNC's research shop. “The first question mark is that Edwards was unlikely to hold onto to his North Carolina Senate seat in 2003 when he decided not to run for re-election. In short, if John Edwards is so electable, why couldn’t he be re-elected in his home state?”
He then hits Edwards for not carrying his home state as part of the Kerry -Edwards 2004 presidential ticket, and that they even lost Edwards’ home county.
“At the end of the day, despite repeated assurances, Kerry-Edwards also failed to win a single southern state,” Rasky writes. “So it’s understandable that this time around, even John Edwards’s own people are acknowledging his vulnerability: Rob Tully, a former state party chairman and Edwards backer, said “if he doesn't win Iowa or come very close this time, ‘we're done.’”
Rasky even writes, “[T]here are serious doubts about Edwards’ message” before pivoting to why he thinks Biden is more electable. He claims Biden “has set a 15-18 red state strategy” and that “Sen. Biden’s victories have also come during times of strong Republican presence in the Delaware.”
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From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike INDEPENDENCE, IA -- After initially refusing to respond to Huckabee's attack ad bait-and-switch, Romney made the following statement outside Bill's Pizza here this afternoon:
"You know in reaction to the press conference Gov. Huckabee had today, I think that I’d note that I’m running a serious campaign, that there are serious issues that face the country at this time. I want to bring change to Washington -- that’s what my campaign is about. The press conference which Gov. Huckabee had today, I think, is confusing to the people of Iowa. On the one hand, he wants to run a positive campaign; and on the other hand, he shows a negative campaign ad and hopes that people promote it and provide it to the public through the earned media. And I think that’s a very confusing and puzzling message. With that, who wants a slice of pizza?"
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama promised to do to prevent Republicans from "stealing" the election in 2008.
A voter here told Obama that he believed that elections in 2000 and 2004 had been "stolen" by the Republicans and wanted a promise from Obama that he would fight any dirty tricks in 2008.
Obama responded, "I intend to whoop 'em so good that it won't even be close, and they can't steal the election. It won't be 47 on one side, 47 on the other," Obama said of his candidacy.
"I promise you this: If for any reason this thing is close, we will fight it tooth and nail to the end because too much is at stake in this election. Too much is at stake," Obama added.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Huckabee' s day wasn't strange enough, immediately following his anti-attack-ad news conference , a scheduled trip to his campaign headquarters here was disrupted by dual demonstrations that prevented the candidate from entering the building. The ordeal ended with three arrests and a mob of confused journalists forced to find another way inside the building.
Paul's Iowa campaign offices are directly adjacent to Huckabee's, and as journalists arrived to cover what was supposed to be an innocent photo opportunity of Huckabee greeting some campaign volunteers, they were surprised to find dozens of Paul supporters crowding the sidewalks chanting, "Ron Paul revolution, legalized the Constitution."
Simultaneously, an unrelated group of local anti-war activists surrounded the entrance to Huckabee's headquarters, while three members of the group staged a sit-in of sorts in the office lobby. The police were already on the scene when most of the media arrived, but the dueling demonstrations -- combined with a multitude of TV cameras -- presented a formidable entryway when the governor's campaign bus pulled in across the street.
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From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike Romney smiled and laughed his way through a news conference with reporters this morning after his first campaign stop in Bellevue, Iowa.Huckabee over the head with -- and informed reporters that he established a 10-to 12-page set of guidelines for issuing them as governor and said he would do the same as president. And indirectly hitting Huckabee, he added: "Clearly the importance of this topic suggests as we consider something of this nature that we do so on a thorough and complete and comprehensive level, and we don't make pardons on a capricious and arbitrary basis."McCain to Democrats on taxes, Giuliani to Democrats on social issues, and now mentioning former President Clinton in his opening remarks, Romney told reporters later in the session that he had no intention of drawing a parallel between Clinton and Huckabee.
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From NBC's Christina Jamison and Mark Murray Clinton campaign trail, the press corps assumed this morning it'd be more of the same. On the press bus this morning, spokesman Jay Carson said we'd see "no fireworks" and that we'd see a composed and confident candidate hammering home her message to Iowans.
Well, the candidate was certainly calm and composed, but there were definitely some fireworks. Early in the stump speech, Clinton said her leading rivals, Obama and Edwards , were talking about each other and not the issues. "My two leading opponents have spent a lot of time right now kind of, you know, talking about each other," she said. "I'm gonna keep talking about the people of Iowa and the people of America."
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From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller STORM LAKE, Iowa -- At Buena Vista University this afternoon, Edwards continued using a line he debuted yesterday aimed at crossover appeal to voters from other parties.
"Corporate greed -- it's not just stealing the future of Democrats' children; it's stealing the future of Independents' children, of Republicans' children," he told a smaller-than-usual crowd about halfway through his stump speech. "This destruction of the middle class -- it's not just happening to Democrats; it's happening to Republicans. It's happening to Independents. Here's why that matters. Because next fall if you have a presidential candidate who's standing up with some strength and passion in a personal way to do something about this corporate greed there is no place in America that people don't believe this."
This New Year's Eve marks Day 5 of Edwards' final eight-day swing through Iowa before the caucuses. His family is traveling with him, though only daughter Emma Claire and son Jack made an appearance in Storm Lake. Roxanne Conlin, Edwards' Iowa co-chair, and Ben "Cooter" Jones, a former congressman and Dukes of Hazzard star who has campaigned extensively with Edwards, provided the events' introductions.
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From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy DES MOINES, Iowa -- Peace protestors mixed with Ron Paul supporters prevented Huckabee from entering his Des Moines headquarters through the front door. Three people were arrested and then reporters were allowed back in to shoot footage of Huckabee glad-handing volunteers in his headquarters. This was immediately following his 2:00 p.m. ET new s conference.
From NBC’s Mark Murray, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum Huckabee told a packed room of reporters that he was pulling a negative TV ad his campaign had produced to respond to Romney's attacks.
"The cookie cutter approach says you get hit, you hit back,” Huckabee told the reporters, adding, “I think that the Washington way often has been effective. But there may be a better way, and I hope that we can prove that's exactly the case."
Then -- via a laptop projector -- he showed the ad anyway to the several dozen journalists in the room.
Adding to the spectacle, the sound of the ad didn't work for several minutes -- until the press got to hear it one time. The ad, which his campaign said cost $30,000 to produce, begins with Huckabee speaking to the viewer. "I'm Mike Huckabee, and I approve this message, because Iowans have a right to know the truth about Mitt Romney's dishonest attacks on me and even an American hero, John McCain ."
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From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan One thing that stood out in Tim Russert's interview with Obama on Meet the Press Sunday was Obama's claim that he and his wife Michelle have more in common with average Americans now than they would eight years from now.
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From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Elizabeth Edwards defended her husband on the accusation that one of his biggest fundraisers is an oil lobbyist. "Campaigns go to journalists and try to feed them stories to try to get them to have us talk about things other than the issues," she said on MSNBC this morning. "What they brought up is someone who is a state lobbyist in a state in which we do not live, does not lobby the federal government, has never tried to lobby John, but likes John's policies and has tried to raise money for him."
"That's not what John's talking about," she continued. "What John's talking about is not taking money from the same people who then turn around and try to lobby you to get a result. So John has never taken money from a federal lobbyist or from a special interest PAC who might try to convince him to vote a particular way."
Mrs. Edwards did not stop there, taking advantage of the opportunity to attack Clinton. "Coming from the Clinton campaign, who has taken more money from the health care industry, more money from defense contractors, than any other candidate in the race -- that's a little bit disingenuous," Edwards said. "You hear the same thing from other campaigns, where they are trying to get you off message. John is and always has been a fighter against the kinds of influence you see in Washington. And his statement that he will not have a lobbyist in his White House is a real statement that his division between the kind of influence for corporations and his obligation to represent and fight for the people of this country ... is total. That's the reason he made the statement. It is not rhetoric. It is real, and it is also symbolic, of his complete dedication to this ideal."
From NBC's Chuck Todd DES MOINES, Iowa -- An email from the Club for Growth this morning criticizing John McCain over his declaration last night that if given the chance he would again vote against the Bush tax cuts reminded me that a number of third-party special interest groups (on both sides of the spectrum) have a lot on the line in Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond.
The Club, in particular, is watching a potential nightmare scenario brewing in the two early states as the GOP candidates they like the least -- Mike Huckabee and John McCain -- have a shot at sweeping the first two states. The Club went negative on Huckabee early and often and all that's happened as his numbers have shot up. That said, the negative economic info the Club has provided for the public record has been used by Romney so they have to feel pretty good about that.
That said, if Huckabee and McCain win Iowa and New Hampshire and then end up having a 2-way showdown for the GOP nod, it could spell the end of the Club's effectiveness as a conservative third party advocacy group. They Club knows how to make waves but they've always struggled to notch victories outside of House races. If the Club ends up with Huckabee and/or McCain egg on its face in 2008, will that mean some other Republican candidates stop taking their calls?
But the Club isn't the only special interest group with a lot riding on the results of Iowa and New Hampshire. On the Democratic side, three groups in particular have put their money and resources where their mouth is, including: AFSCME, SEIU and EMILY's List.
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From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike Romney launched his final pre-caucus ad in Iowa this morning that reminds voters of his “turn around” message -- and his family.
“Everywhere my family and I go we hear that America’s challenges are simply too big for Washington politicians,” he begins.
He goes on to tick off the laundry list of accomplishments on his resume, including his success in turning things around in business, the Olympics and as governor of Massachusetts. And he ends, “It’s time to turn around Washington.”
Noting the positive message the ad carries, spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said that the contrast in the dynamic will be interesting to watch today given Huckabee’s proposed counterattacks for today.
Still, the Romney campaign blasted out another “THOSE WHO KNOW HIM BEST” release on
Huckabee , hitting him for having a reputation of granting clemencies as governor and charging that the more he granted, “the more applications poured in.”
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike Romney had great success with Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) and his son, Bryan, on Friday. The same was true of Saturday, when he was traveling with former Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) and his son, Michael, and attorney Jay Sekulow and his son, Jordan. But today, he was traveling with former Colorado congressman and failed gubernatorial candidate, Bob Beauprez .
Parts of Beauprez's introductions:
"I tell people, 'Mitt Romney was to business what Elvis Presley was to music,'” Beauprez said. “He was a rock star; he stood out; he set a whole new standard."
But give this one a look, as it caused several reporters' eyes to dart around the room and raise their eyebrows: "Then he went to the Salt Lake Olympics -- extremely difficult circumstances -- and if it wasn't tough enough already, they threw in a little event called 9/11 on top of it to complicate matters. He pulled that off in great style."
(What would the Giuliani campaign say to the notion that 9/11 was a "little event" that was thrown in to complicate matters for Romney...?)
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger Tim Russert said it first, but the Giuliani campaign seems to have adopted it as their mantra, "Florida, Florida, Florida."
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From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney campaign is set to release a positive ad -- the closing message in Iowa -- the team is also starting to engage Obama, given the senator's Romney-heavy remarks on the stump yesterday.
These are campaigns that are supposed to be singularly focused on the primaries in Iowa right now, so what might this be saying about internal tracking data? Romney's camp also just released a document, taking Obama to task on taxes.
*** UPDATE ***
NBC's Domenico Montanaro adds that this positive ad, running in Iowa, comes after Romney released negative ones on Huckabee and McCain, his chief rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively.
In the ad, he touts his accomplishments in "helping turn around business, the Olympics, and state government."
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller will have a full page ad in the Des Moines Register, according to a senior Edwards aide. Edwards will also go on air with 60-second ads during the network evening news programs in Iowa Jan. 2 and 3, according to the source.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro DES MOINES, IA -- After the last four days of watching the top three Democrats on the stump, we think we can categorize their sales pitches more succinctly. Clinton is the steady hand, Obama is the unifying change agent, and Edwards is the crusader. For months, the chattering class has struggled to classify Edwards. Was he a change agent or a populist? Well, after listening to him use a variation of the word "fight" more than "change" (39 times versus 10 at one stop yesterday, per NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller), it's fair to say we know what he is: He's playing the role of crusader. Which message will ultimately work? The most tried and true method is the Clinton tactic (though it does put her in the position of being the "incumbent"). Crusader candidates usually hit a wall at some point because normally they have a hard time bring in new supporters (though Edwards does have ENORMOUS fav ratings). And change agents can do well in two-ways against the steady hand, but how much is Edwards hurting Obama in these closing days?
*** Huck’s big test: Has Huckabee waited too long to respond? He appears to have let Romney get under his skin and he seems to be complaining very publicly about the attacks in a much less humorous way than he has in the past. Example: He tells the Politico that Romney owes him an apology. Will this style change cost him? Will voters look at the complaints at face value, or see him as weak for taking too long to respond? It's a major presidential leadership test for him.
*** Forget ringing in the New Year with a ball drop: While campaigns are spending New Year’s here in the Hawkeye State, they will all hold off on any champagne until the hit refresh on their Web browsers waiting for the final Des Moines Register poll to be posted late tonight. The poll is set to appear in tomorrow's editions of the paper, meaning the poll will begin circulating late tonight. The poll, the most respected of any when it comes to Iowa, will have an effect on how the chattering class sets up the final days of the campaign.
*** Enter Bloomberg? So Bloomberg -- as today’s New York Times suggests -- is closer to running, right? Well, remember he has to if he's even 20% thinking he'll run. The process for getting on ballots starts early, and he has to start the grunt work. What we don't know if whether there are any indie voters or voters in either primary who will use the Bloomberg threat to vote for the most electable candidate. The other thing to keep in mind is that while Bloomberg fascinates the Amtrak East Coast corridor, does the idea play in the rest of America?
*** Pulling a Dean? Did Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D), a key Clinton endorser and surrogate, pull a Howard Dean? “Beginning the presidential nominating process in Iowa, as will occur this week, ‘makes no sense,’ says Gov. Ted Strickland, who recently campaigned there for Sen. Hillary Clinton,” the Columbus Dispatch writes. “‘I'd like to see both parties say, “We're going to bring this to an end,”’ he said.” Well, remember the firestorm that engulfed Dean in January 2004, when NBC reported on unflattering statements he had made about the Iowa caucuses and the caucus system? Of course, there is a big difference of having a candidate (a la Dean) say something like this and a surrogate (like Strickland). But the Ohio governor has become one of Bill Clinton’s standard stump mentions. Does that continue?
*** On the trail: Iowa remains the place to be this New Year’s Eve… Biden visits Fort Dodge, Ames, and Newton; Clinton travels to Keokuk, Fort Madison, Muscatine, Waterloo, and Des Moines (the last three events billed as New Year’s celebrations); Dodd visits the Niman ranch in Thornton; Edwards is in Storm Lake, Spence, Emmetsburg, Algona, and Mason City (for his New Year’s Eve party); Huckabee spends his entire day in Des Moines, which includes a jog, haircut, and news conference; Obama goes to Perry, Jefferson, Boone, Iowa Falls, and Ames; Richardson campaigns in Ames, Perry, Winterset, Knoxville, and winds up in Des Moines for his NYE party; Romney stumps in Clinton, Bellevue, Dubuque, Manchester, Independence, and Waterloo; and Bill Clinton attends his own NYE parties in Missouri Valley and Ottumwa before joining his wife in Des Moines. Elsewhere, Giuliani is down, and Kucinich and McCain are in New Hampshire.
Countdown to Iowa: 3 days
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"Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney took their battle over Christian voters to the pews as both attended services while their campaigns spanned Iowa in a final Sunday pitch to evangelicals. With Christian conservatives expected to make up as much as 40 percent of Republican caucusgoers, Romney dispatched surrogates to meet with pastors in the far corners of Iowa, hoping to blunt Huckabee's momentum among evangelicals. On Friday, three national religious leaders backing Huckabee -- Tim LaHaye, Michael Farris and Rick Scarborough -- convened a conference call with Iowa pastors to urge them to use Sunday's services to drive up participation by Christian voters, who polls suggest favor the former Arkansas governor by comfortable margins."
Per the New York Daily News , "Huckabee and Romney have been engaged in an increasingly nasty tussle for first place among GOP voters in Iowa, where the winner of their clash may be determined by which candidate can more effectively marshal their supporters to caucus sites on Thursday. Romney, who has the bigger war chest, is taking the time-tested route of building county support and approaching Republicans based on their prior voting records… Team Huckabee is relying more heavily on a patchwork of volunteer support from affinity groups such as home-schoolers, Christian groups and supporters of the so-called FairTax plan."
By the way, Huckabee is taking the Romney jabs VERY personally. Politico's Roger Simon got Huckabee to say he was owed a personal apology from Romney for the campaign attacks. “‘I didn't draw first blood and say terrible things about Mitt,’ Huckabee said. ‘I'm not angry. This is politics; it is the way it works. But he not only wants to make up his record, but my record.’”
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CLINTON: Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's critique of Iowa's role in the nominating process didn't go over well with some Iowans. "In an interview with The Dispatch last week, Strickland said the Iowa caucuses make ‘no sense.’ He called the GOP and Democratic caucuses ‘hugely undemocratic,’ because the process ‘excludes so many people.’ Anyone who happens to be working or is sick or too old to get out for a few hours Thursday night won't be able to participate, Strickland said. ‘I'd like to see both parties say, “We're going to bring this to an end,”’ Strickland said, adding that he has no problem with the New Hampshire primary Jan. 8, because ‘at least it's an election.’”
“Since endorsing Clinton in September, Strickland has campaigned for her three times in Iowa, including what was to be a quick trip Dec. 9 that turned into ‘the trip to hell and back,’ Strickland said. He expected to return to Columbus via Chicago early that Sunday night but was waylaid by bad weather, getting home at 6 a.m. Monday -- via Las Vegas. ‘Iowa is not an attractive place to be in the wintertime,’ Strickland said, adding that Iowa ‘is not a representative state and the caucus is not a fair way to register public opinion, in my judgment.’”
”The Clinton campaign yesterday sought some distance from the governor's comments. ‘Sen. Clinton believes that Iowa and New Hampshire play a unique and special role in the nominating process, and that process should be protected,’ spokesman Isaac Baker said. ‘We're proud to have Gov. Strickland's support, but on this issue they disagree.’”
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GIULIANI: After the MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll showed Giuliani lagging far behind in Iowa, the New York Post headlines, "Rudy's got not heartland." "When you get to Florida and the Feb. 5 states, we're ahead in some cases by large percentages and in some case by closer percentages," Giuliani told Fox News. "We believe it's a good strategy and it's going to work."
The Washington Times' Dinan tracked Giuliani's Iowa campaign stops and notes the "reviews" are "far less kind" than they were during the summer when Giuliani was campaigning more regularly in the state.
Giuliani pens an essay on homeland security in City Journal , a quarterly published by the conservative Manhattan Institute.
HUCKABEE: Other than appearing on "Meet the Press," Huckabee was down Sunday. What was he doing ? Adviser Ed Rollins said Huckabee would spend part of the day taping a television ad, to run Monday, aimed at making sure that "the voters know the facts about the governor's record and Governor Romney's record."
PAUL: The Des Moines Register profiles Paul. "His message includes limited government, an end to the war in Iraq, protection of gun rights, lower taxes, strictly abiding by the Constitution and a balanced federal budget. It's a message that sets him apart from other Republican presidential candidates who mostly have supported the war and have not been nearly as aggressive about taking a stand on budget issues as Paul."
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The New York Times reports that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is edging ever closer to an indie run. "A final decision by Mr. Bloomberg about whether to run is unlikely before February. Still, he and his closest advisers are positioning themselves so that if the mayor declares his candidacy, a turnkey campaign infrastructure will virtually be in place. Bloomberg aides have studied the process for starting independent campaigns, which formally begins March 5, when third-party candidates can begin circulating nominating petitions in Texas. If Democrats and Republicans have settled on their presumptive nominees at that point, Mr. Bloomberg will have to decide whether he believes those candidates are vulnerable to a challenge from a pragmatic, progressive centrist, which is how he would promote himself.”
”The filing deadline for the petitions, which must be signed by approximately 74,000 Texas voters who did not participate in the state's Democratic or Republican primaries, is May 12."
The Boston Globe : " Buoyed by the still unsettled field, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg is growing increasingly enchanted with the idea of launching an independent presidential bid, and his aides are aggressively laying the groundwork for him to run."
From NBC's John Yang
Well, sort of.
It depends on what your definition of "ring in" is, Yang adds. If it means being up to celebrate the stroke of midnight and the first seconds of 2008, not so much. Think more like being in bed, having been asleep for hours. Unlike his predecessor, Bush is hardly a night owl, preferring to be in bed by 9:00 pm. or so.
As Laura Bush teased him during her monologue at the 2005 White House Correspondents' Association Dinner: "George, if you really want to end tyranny in the world, you're going to have to stay up later."
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Huckabee in Iowa, Romney made his way through the eastern part of the Hawkeye State with his wife.
Former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R) and his son traveled with the campaign in Iowa yesterday, as did pro-life advocate and attorney Jay Sekulow. Talent and Sekulow explained to reporters on the press bus yesterday afternoon that they have been meeting with evangelical Christian in leaders in the state to remind them of the importance of judicial appointments over the next few years. Sekulow insisted: “To nominate someone and then to see to confirming them are two different tasks. And for the task of confirmation, you have to have the political skills and leadership to do that,” insinuating that Huckabee may not quite be ready for that.
But the suggestion that Romney is politically shrewd enough to cut through the partisanship and rigors of Washington at the same time that he’s suggesting he’s the candidate who can bring change to it seems to be a fine line. Asked that question early this afternoon, he explained to reporters: “Probably my best capability is in building a good team and working with people within that team and across the aisle to get the job done, and I'm not trying to take away from somebody else. They may have their skills. Sen. McCain has been there in Washington 27 years. So he certainly has political skill, but I believe that at this time, to change Washington, it would be helpful to have somebody who comes with more private sector skill, experience outside Washington. I don't think you change Washington from the inside. I think you change it from the outside."
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From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
Today, a glowing Richardson waded into a screaming crowd of over 500 to the spine-tingling guitar jangling of U2's "Where the Streets Have No Name." Last week, crowds of national reporters jostled for seats when Biden held a press conference in Des Moines after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. And McCain packed ‘em in eastern Iowa earlier this week.
For those of you just tuning in now, this is a whole new rodeo.
A breathtaking velocity of campaign frenzy and media coverage has been whirling around candidates like Obama and Clinton for weeks. For top-tierers who routinely attract hundreds to rallies, it’s not out of the ordinary to see a tangle of network cameras elbowing through crowds to catch the money entrance shot as a pumping soundtrack fills the ears of cheering supporters.
To see the same at a Richardson event is stunning.
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Giuliani -- signaling his focus on the longer contest ahead -- looked to stay above the fray today.
Even as he campaigned here in New Hampshire, Giuliani did not exactly pursue the typical primary course. After a town hall meeting in Plymouth, he shook hands for just a few minutes before his staff asked the crowd to leave the room so Giuliani could do a live interview on Fox News Channel. He went on to a ski lodge in Lincoln, where he exchanged quick greetings with hordes of people who seemed surprised to see him there before he quickly moved. And he ended his day at the ritzy Mount Washington Resort, where he addressed a crowd that likely included as many out-of-staters on vacation as it did primary voters.
And as Romney , McCain and Huckabee exchange more pointed barbs on the eve of the caucuses, the former New York mayor urged restraint. In Plymouth, when Giuliani was asked specifically how he differed from his party rivals, he invoked Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment, saying he’ll stick to talking about his record. But he did state the Giuliani amendment to that commandment. “Don’t criticize other Republicans, comma, unless they criticize me,” Giuliani said. “I have to make a little exception.”
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama loves his Republicans. He makes an open pitch for GOP voters in his stump speeches, even as he calls them out in his stump speeches, saying he can beat Mitt and Rudy and Huckabee . At a town hall in Knoxville today, he threw in Ron Paul . "They don't poll Ron Paul, but I can beat him too."
But there's one Republican whom he seems to have a little more affection for than most. Obama frequently makes fun of Romney on the stump, joking about illegal aliens working on his Romney's yard. And today, he was given permission by a Republican deciding between Obama and Romney to draw some "contrasts."
"Mitt Romney is a very handsome guy. He's taller than me. I was listening to an interview this morning and somebody asked him if he's ever cursed. He said of course, but not the real harsh ones. I have to tell you -- I've used the harsh ones, the really juicy ones," Obama told the crowd, laughing.
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From NBC's Mark Murray DES MOINES, IA -- Star attraction Martin Sheen couldn't make it as originally planned -- he is sick and couldn't fly to Iowa -- but that didn't stop a few hundred people from packing a third-floor room above a downtown bar here to listen to Richardson speak.
Is this momentum!" Richardson exclaimed to the crowd. "Is this a real surge!" He went on to say, "We are going to shock the world, right?"
Richardson also said the election "should not be [decided] by the national media. It should be by Iowa." Then citing a poll by the national media -- our MSNBC/McClatchy survey, which has him in fourth place in Iowa, at 12% -- he told the crowd, "We are within striking distance of the top three."
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From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann DES MOINES, IA -- Hillary and Chelsea Clinton went to church today -- for 13 minutes.
Clinton appeared at an 11:00 am service at Corinthian Baptist Church, a mostly African-American congregation here. After arriving about a half hour after the start of the service with daughter Chelsea and former Gov. Tom Vilsack in tow Clinton participated in a lengthy fellowship sharing (the second of the service), during which members greet each other and mingle. Approached -- but not mobbed -- by churchgoers who snapped cell-phone pictures of the senator, Clinton shook hands and posed for photos until the pastor herded the congregation back to their seats with a series of increasingly impatient "Amens."
Clinton made brief remarks at the service, beginning with a pious declaration of "this is the day the Lord has made." But despite her reverential tone, her remarks were not devoid of politics. Touting her years of work for the Children's Defense Fund, she said that she is running for president "in large measure" to ensure the future of America's children. "The American people need a president to be their champion," she said.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller Edwards used some variation of the word "fight" nearly 40 times at a town hall at the Giggling Goat Cafe here this afternoon.
In his stump speech, he uttered the words "fight," "fighting" or "fought" 31 times; in the Q&A session and his closing, he used them an additional eight times. In contrast, Edwards said "change" or "changes" six times in the stump speech and four times in the second half of the town hall.
A perfect example came about 12 minutes into the stump speech, when Edwards told the story of how his father taught him never to back down from a fight. "Where I grew up, you had to fight to survive. You did," he said. "I still remember when I was young coming home -- had gotten in a fight with an older kid and got my butt kicked. Came home, told my, you know, I was beaten up a little bit, said something to my father and he set me down and he said, 'I don't want to ever hear you starting a fight.' I said, 'Yes, sir.' And he said, 'But I want you to hear me and hear me clearly: You never ever walk away from a fight, because if you're not willing to stand up for yourself no one will stand up for you.'"
The words highlight the difference between Edwards and Obama , as the two argue over which one will be the more effective change agent.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
So far the candidates haven't made much of an issue of it here. Remember that at a UNH/Fox News debate on Sept. 5, Sam Brownback was asked about the subject, and when he stood up for an amendment to ban gay marriage, the audience reaction was a mixed bag of boos and applause. One of the debate watchers in the diner, albeit a state employee union member, said: "Absolutely not. We're the state of live free or die, and people should be able to marry the person they love."
Still, we're likely to see the candidates at the very least asked about it when they show up in the Granite State post-caucus, possibly in the two debates planned for the short 5-day gap.
Here's a roundup of some of the local newspaper coverage of the pending civil union period: The AP , The Union Leader (here , here and here ), the Concord Monitor (here and here ), Nashua Telegraph .
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll . In the survey, Romney now leads Huckabee, 27%-23%, although it’s within the 5% margin of error. They’re followed by Thompson at 14%, McCain at 13%, and Giuliani and Paul tied at 5%. Three weeks ago -- before Romney began his contrast ads -- the poll had Huckabee comfortably leading Romney, 32%-20%. One of the reasons for Huck’s decline: His lead over Romney among self-identified born-again Christians has dropped from 42%-8% to 34%-27%. And among weekly churchgoers, it has decreased from 38%-15% to 28%-27%.
*** Dem race all about turnout: The Democratic race in Iowa , meanwhile, is essentially a three-way tie; just two points separate the three front-runners. In the poll, it’s Edwards 24%, Clinton 23%, and Obama 22% -- followed by Richardson at 12% and Biden at 8%. Three weeks ago, it was Clinton 27%, Obama 25%, and Edwards 21%. Although the percentages in it show it to be a tossup, the poll suggests that turnout could decide the contest. According to the survey, Obama leads Edwards and Clinton among first-time caucus-goers, 31%-22%-21%. Among veteran caucus-goers, it’s Edwards 25%, Clinton 24%, and Obama 18%. This suggests that a heavy turnout -- including many first-timers -- could greatly benefit Obama; a lighter turnout probably would benefit Edwards and (to a lesser degree) Clinton. Another important factor in the Dem contest is the battle for second choice (if a candidate doesn’t clear the 15% viability threshold). In the poll, Edwards gets the most second-choice support, and when Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich backers are realigned among the top three Dems, the poll has Edwards over Obama and Clinton, 36%-26%-26%.
*** Other interesting findings: Edwards has the highest fav/unfav score (73%-11%) among the Dem front-runners, while Clinton has the worst (59%-19%). On the GOP side, Romney has the highest rating (58%-19%), while both Giuliani (30%-39%) and Paul (21%-44%) have net-negative scores. In fact, this is the second-straight MSNBC/McClatchy poll that has Paul with a net-negative rating, leading us -- once again -- to wonder if Paul is running for the wrong party’s nomination. The new poll was conducted from December 26-28 among 400 likely GOP and 400 likely Dem caucus-goers, and it has a 5% margin of error.
*** So what about tea leaves? This poll indicates that the candidate with the greatest upside on the Dem side is Edwards. He's polling competitively and has the highest ceiling of support among these likely caucus-goers; he's tops among second choice AND he's got the highest fav rating. Obama appears to have the next highest ceiling, with Clinton with the smallest room to grow, as she trails badly in second choice and her fav rating -- while excellent -- is third among the top three candidates. As for the tea leaves on the GOP side, Romney appears to have the big Mo; these numbers match the anecdotal we've picked up.
*** Should the Dems go negative, too? Will Romney's apparent success in going negative change the CW about negative ads in Iowa on the Dem side? Maybe not. Why? It's much easier to go negative in a two-way race than in a three-way one, and that's why you aren't seeing any of the Dems risk going negative for fear that if candidate A attacks candidate B, candidate C gains.
*** The Outsiders: Both Huckabee and Edwards are running against bigger bankrolls and it's pushed both to using populist appeals. But the two aren't just "outsiders" in the literal sense. They are also relying on "outsiders" to win Iowa. Both are getting arguably more support (in the case of Huckabee) or as much support (in the case of Edwards) from these groups. Obama is trying to make this an issue with Edwards, as the Obama camp sees these outside groups allowing Edwards to apparently outspend Obama in these final days on TV. These Obama hits are having -- potentially -- a divisive effect on SEIU, whose state and local affiliates are helping to bankroll one of these pro-Edwards groups. Should Edwards fail to win Iowa, don't be surprised if there is a lot of internal turmoil inside of SEIU. Last night, the national union sent out a release reaffirming its support for the pro-Edwards 527, which is making a lot of pro-Obama SEIU forces upset.
*** The electability primary: Interestingly, all three leading Dem candidates made electability pitches during their Iowa stops. What did they all see in their recent tracking? Or is this about wooing second choicers? After all, according to the MSNBC/McClatchy poll out today, 20% are supporting Richardson and Biden, making the second-choice vote very important. And electability likely is a greater concern among folks making a backup pick. It can be a deal closer.
*** On the trail : Once again, nearly everyone is in the Hawkeye State… Biden travels to Mason City, Garner, Algona, and Woodbury; Clinton attends church in Des Moines before going to Vinton, Traer, Cedar Falls, and Iowa Falls; Dodd hits Le Mars, Emmetsburg, and Mason City; Edwards campaigns in Boone, Denison, Mapleton, and Sioux City; Huckabee has no other public events but a jog; Obama appears in Knoxville, Newton, Indianola, and Des Moines; Richardson stumps in Marshalltown, Des Moines, and Fort Dodge; Romney hits Iowa City, Mount Vernon, and Moscow; and Thompson is in Ames and Webster City. Elsewhere, both Giuliani and McCain campaign in New Hampshire.
Countdown to Iowa: 4 days
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The New York Times looks at the Democratic ground war. Obama “is on the hunt for Iowans who have never participated in the state’s presidential caucuses, including independent voters under 50 and students who will be 18 by the general election.” Clinton “is searching for Iowans who have skipped the caucuses in the past and who, because of age, sex or other characteristics, seem likely to support her, starting with independent women over 65 and under 30.” And Edwards “is taking a more traditional approach, working through the official list of Democrats who showed up to choose a candidate in 2004.”
More: “The ground war - the laborious, unglamorous process of identifying supporters and making sure they show up to make their preference known when it counts - has always been a critical part of the contest in Iowa. But the turnout effort among Democrats this time around has exploded into the most ambitious and costly in the history of this state’s presidential caucus system, and it puts on display the sharply diverging strategies the candidates are pursuing as they hurtle toward the first real test of the 2008 campaign.”
The Clinton, Edwards, and Obama camps seem to agree with this:
The MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll isn’t the only new Iowa survey out today. A Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll has Clinton ahead (outside the margin of error) over Obama and Edwards, 31%-27%-24%. On the GOP side, it’s Huckabee 29%, Romney 28%, McCain 11%, and Thompson, Giuliani, and Paul all tied at 8%.
CONTINUED >>
Say this about Huckabee, he really can handle tough questions. Under intense questioning from NBC’s Tim Russert, Huck never lost his cool. He passed the Pakistan pop quiz of sorts and even got in some harsh Romney digs, calling him dishonest. And in defending his running on his faith, Huckabee reminded viewers he didn't try and replace the Arkansas capital dome with a steeple. Bottom line: The guy is comfortable in his own skin and despite the array of tough questions he received, he never didn't smile or stay calm.
As far as Obama, who followed Huckabee on Meet the Press, the senator sounded a bit stuffed up. Then again, so are we... Obama stuck behind David Axelrod's comments about Clinton, her Iraq vote and Pakistan. While he didn't accept the idea there was a causal relationship with the Iraq vote, he used it as an example on judgment.
Obama compared himself to Bill Clinton and claimed he had more formal foreign policy experience now than Bill Clinton did in ‘92. That's something the Clinton folks may pounce on.
"We're not that far away from normal." Might be one of the more fascinating quotes, he said in terms of saying what he meant when he said his wife said he wouldn't run again if he lost...
BIDEN: Biden drew 250 to an event in Iowa, "in a scene more typical of the events of Democratic front-runners Sens. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards." Richard Schiff, the West Wing's Toby Ziegler, introduced Biden and will campaign with him today.
CLINTON: The Washington Post : "After trying out various themes and rationales for her campaign, Hillary Clinton has settled in the final week before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary on the experience plank, arguing that she is the only one of the front-running Democratic candidates prepared to lead from the first day in office, a claim her rivals have challenged by questioning the value of her tenure as first lady. Clinton advisers noted privately this week that the experience argument was bolstered by the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and the threat of wider unrest in that country. Clinton pressed the point during a stop in Eldridge, Iowa, telling reporters: "I'm not asking you to take me on faith. I'm not asking you to take a leap of faith."
At a town hall meeting tonight, Bill Clinton once again suggested that he opposed the war in Iraq, NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli notes. Talking about the state of the economy here, Clinton talked about the growing inequality between the top wage earners and the rest of Americans. As he often has, he then talked about how he was given tax breaks and not asked to sacrifice. "As soon as I got rich, this party that had been so mean to me thought I was peachy keen, and the president could not do enough for me," Clinton said. "He just kept throwing tax cuts at me and borrowing money to pay for it, while we had men and women in uniform in Iraq and Afghanistan. And I was deprived of the opportunity to support them."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The former New York mayor appears to be moving on from Iowa. "Aides said the ex-mayor won't even return to Iowa for the caucus results," the New York Daily News writes. "While Giuliani's 20 stops in the state since the campaign began may seem like a lot, some Iowans said they didn't see enough of him to take his measure."
HUCKABEE: The Politico’s Martin writes, “Since becoming the Iowa frontrunner, Mike Huckabee has been subjected to a month-long siege of media scrutiny and mostly unanswered attacks from his top rival - an onslaught that any presidential hopeful would be hard-pressed to survive… Huckabee’s slide can be explained by a series of inter-related factors. His rise came right as the media began to closely cover the campaign, he and his undermanned campaign organization have been ill-prepared to push back against broadsides from both the press and Romney and his positions and rhetoric have drawn the enmity of a constellation of groups within the conservative establishment.”
When he's asked about the biting attack ads being slung at him by rival Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee likes to laugh off the tough talk, NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann reports. But a new mailer going out to Iowa Republicans makes it clear that he's playing serious defense. In fact, some might say that he sounds like a man on the ropes.
CONTINUED >>
Just one day before the New Hampshire primary, a group of moderate Dems and Republicans -- as well as New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg -- will meet at the University of Oklahoma to announce that if the likely nominees of the two parties do not pledge to "go beyond tokenism" in building a bipartisan government, they will be prepared to back Bloomberg in an indie bid. Those participating: Sam Nunn, Chuck Robb, David Boren, Gary Hart on the Dem side; and Chuck Hagel, Bill Brock, John Danforth and Christie Whitman on the GOP side.
Others who may attend the event include: Bill Cohen, Alan Dixon, Bob Graham, Jim Leach and Susan Eisenhower (granddaughter of the late president).
From NBC's Christina Jamison Clinton continued her electability argument here in the home stretch of the Iowa campaign.
The message was clear: She is a known quantity, and Iowans shouldn't risk someone who can't stand up to the election scrutiny. When Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland introduced Clinton, he warned "she has remained standing while many of her detractors are no longer around... We know what they did to Senator John Kerry , don't we? And they will do it again."
Clinton then took the stage, asserting again she has the strength and experience to bring change to Americans. "I know that change is hard. Change is hard in our own lives. Change is hard, you know, in any activity you're a part of. But we have to have a president who knows how important it is and can deliver on change for our country."
Perhaps taking a veiled swipe at Obama , she emphasized that she's a known quantity in this election. "Why do I tell you some of these things that I've done over the course of my 35 years of work on behalf of other people?"
"I'm not asking you to take a leap of faith on me. I'm asking you to examine and to consider and to evaluate what I have done and the kind of positive change I have already made."
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller and NBC's Mark Murray WASHINGTON, IA -- Edwards told a crowd at a library this morning that he would not hire any former corporate or foreign government lobbyists in his administration.
"I want to make an announcement today, which is that when I am president of the United States, no corporate lobbyist or anyone who has lobbied for a foreign government will work in my White House," he said.
Following the town hall, Edwards reiterated to reporters that that means he will not hire anyone who has ever been registered as a federal lobbyist in Washington, DC. He said that would include "people who have lobbied, been registered lobbyists in Washington on behalf of corporate interests at the federal level ... corporate lobbyists, those who've lobbied against the interests of the American people, those who've lobbied on behalf of foreign governments."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan and NBC's Mark Murray FORT MADISON, IA -- Obama pushed his electability argument a step further at his second stop here today, highlighting Clinton's unfavorable ratings -- while claiming that he could win enough Republican support to create a coalition for governing if he were to win the presidency.
"There's one Democrat who beats every Republican potential opponent, and that's me. I beat Giuliani , I beat McCain , I beat Thompson , I beat Huckabee -- I beat whoever else they are planning to throw at me," he said.
Obama added, "And the reason that I beat them all -- and Hillary doesn't and Edwards doesn't -- is because I get more support from independents and I even get some Republican support, despite the fact that I've got the most progressive track record on many issues of any of the candidates."
Obama went a step further, contrasting his favorability ratings with Hillary Clinton's unfavorable ones nationally and played on the fears of Democrats that the election in 2008 could be a repeat of the one in 2004.
Obama paused before he drew his contrast, conscious of how his words would come off. "We cant win an election with a candidate... Let me say it this way, because I want to be fair…" He went on to say, "We are less likely to win an election that starts off with half the country not wanting to vote for that candidate." And in what seemed to be a dig at Edwards, he said, "We are less likely also to win an election with somebody who had one set of positions four years ago and has almost entirely different positions four years later. We've been through that."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Bill Clinton made an appeal to the state's thrifty sensibility, saying that she "is more conservative than the Republicans" when it comes to fiscal policy.
Speaking at a crowded ceramics manufacturer here in Dover, where people who couldn't get inside clamored for a view from a sole window, the former president outlined the four main reasons voters should support his wife on primary day. One of them was fiscal responsibility, which Clinton said was a family trait. "Unless you think I'm telling you my speech instead of hers, let me remind you of something," he said. "My dearly departed father-in-law, her daddy, who died in my first term, never bought a car until the day he died that he couldn't pay cash for. We have a depression mentality about that, maybe we shouldn't, but we're tight."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten and NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy Huckabee certainly isn’t afraid to stand up for himself -- or his political rivals.
Responding to dual attack ads released by the Romney campaign yesterday, which targeted Huckabee in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire, the former Arkansas governor today defended not only his own honor, but that of the Arizona senator’s.
“It’s not the most pleasant position to be in,” Huckabee said about the Romney ad that hits his record on spending, immigration, and sentence commutations for inmates. And using the matter-of-fact wit that has helped endear him to Iowans, he continued: “If I believe even half the stuff that’s in those ads, I probably wouldn’t even vote for myself, much less expect you to.”
But he didn’t stop there. As he did yesterday, he defended McCain from a twin attack ad that was released in New Hampshire. “Look, John McCain is a rival in the presidential race, but John McCain is an honorable, decent, true to heaven American hero.”
“It’s like Mitt doesn’t have anything to stand on -- except to stand against,” he addded.
Also, an independent group has launched a Web site called Trust Huckabee , which debuts with a video mocking Romney’s evolving views on abortion. The video, which adopts the same format of Romney’s recent attack ads, shows clips of the former Massachusetts governor’s conflicting statements on the issue, with a man laughing hysterically in the background.
From NBC's Bethany Thomas Romney camp had released a new negative ad against McCain .
After McCain was read the script of the ad from a journalist’s blackberry, he said he was not surprised by the new attack, the second in such days. “I think we expected it... We did have a response ad and I think it’s effective. But for us to get down in that tit for tat -- we’re just not going to do that.”
Senior strategist Charlie Black said the voters will question Romney -- not McCain -- over the latest round of ads. “The biggest issue in the race right now is not what [McCain] says on any specific issue. It’s Romney’s credibility.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan campaign is releasing another television advertisement in Iowa today, its second Iowa ad in the and its third overall TV ad over the last two days.
The ad -- entitled "Hope" -- tries to convey the message that Obama has based his candidacy on: that he is the only candidate who can "bring a fractured people together," quoting an editorial from the Sioux City Journal.
The ad goes on to say that Obama can take on the special interests and "reset the nation's foreign policy and global reputation."
It's the second Iowa ad that uses the local newspaper endorsements Obama has received from the Sioux City Journal, the Iowa City Press-Citizen and the Ottumwa Courier. Obama's campaign has prided itself on providing local papers with access to the senator. The ad concludes "Iowa's newspapers have spoken. Now you can stand for change."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani would deal with the “rise of the Muslims” and that the United States should “defeat or chase them back to their caves”.
John Deady made the comments in a video interview to The Guardian newspaper last weekend, while attending a Giuliani house party at the home of Manchester, N.H., Mayor Frank Guinta.
“He has got, I believe, the knowledge and the judgment to attack one of the most difficult problems in current history, and that is the rise of the Muslims,” Deady said in the video interview, posted Dec. 27. “Make no mistake about it, this hasn’t happened for a thousand years. These people are very, very dedicated. They’re also very smart in their own way, and we need to keep the feet to the fire and keep pressing these people until we defeat them or chase them back to their caves, or, in other words, get rid of them.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan Obama turned up the heat in his own stump speech in Burlington this morning, shouting into the microphone that no other Democrat besides him had a chance to defeat a Republican in the general election.
"Those of you who are still undecided I know what you're asking is, who can win in November?” he said. “Cause you don't want to just elect a nominee, you want to elect a president. So I think you should take a look and see what the polls have said. Most recent polls, I am the only candidate who beats every single one of the Republican candidates. I beat Giuliani , I beat McCain , I beat Romney , I beat Thompson , I beat Huckabee , I beat 'em all. I beat them all," he shouted into the microphone.
Contrasting himself with his rivals, he said, "John Edwards doesn't beat them all. Hillary Clinton doesn't beat 'em all. And part of the reason I [would] because I am able to reach out and get the support of Independents and get the support of some Republicans who are tired of seeing their country waste away. And that is how we're going to win in November, and that is how we are going to govern 4 years from now and 8 years from now that is why I am running for president of the United States. I am running to win this election and bring about real change."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Bethany Thomas The crowds have been steadily building over the last week for McCain, both in Iowa and New Hampshire. Today, in New Hampshire the crowds are literally spilling out of the doors and into the hallways of all of the venues thus far. In fact, it was so crowded, some of the TV crews couldn't get in to shoot.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger CLIVE, Iowa -- The closing night of any show always draws an interesting crowd, so as Giuliani makes his last lap around Iowa today, he is being trailed by a group of media heavyweights. Many of the reporters that are with him today acknowledge that they haven’t seen Giuliani on the campaign trail for months, if at all, and want to catch a glimpse of him in person before he is gone for good. While the reporters have been camped out in Iowa, Giuliani has been elsewhere, and they say it has contributed to him being left out, by and large, from the national dialogue in recent weeks, his medical scare notwithstanding.
Giuliani started his day with a rally in his cramped Iowa headquarters here. He stayed for just 20 minutes, speaking to staffers and volunteers. He seemed more comfortable utilizing the new campaign theme of “Tested. Ready. Now.” than he was when it was first unveiled.
He was asked about recent comments from McCain that Giuliani’s experience on 9/11 was better described as crisis management than national security. “I would say that my experience goes back well before Sept. 11,” he said, rattling off his time as a federal prosecutor and Justice Department official. “I have a tremendous amount of experience dealing with the safety and responsibility for other people.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller Edwards five days before the Iowa caucus may be picking off caucus-goers from other campaigns. In a press release preceding the day’s first event, the campaign named 45 Iowans who supported either John Kerry, Howard Dean or Dick Gephardt in the 2004 caucus but plan to caucus for Edwards next week.
Meanwhile, at the event, a Kucinich supporter stood and said that he caucused for Edwards in 2004 after his first choice wasn’t viable. (In January 2004 Edwards and Kucinich each advised their supporters to move to the other’s camp if one of them was not viable.) The questioner said he was considering Edwards again.
“I was proud to caucus for you last time after campaigning my heart out for Dennis Kucinich,” he told Edwards and asked if the candidate would support Kucinich’s proposal for a Cabinet-level Department of Peace.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
Richardson is hinging much of his run for the White House on his call for an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq. A new mailer going out to Iowa Democrats highlights his plan and slams the three Democratic frontrunners for their more gradual strategy to pull US forces from the region.
"Clinton, Edwards, Obama: Tens of Thousands Left Behind" reads the bold-lettered text.
A carefully footnoted series of paragraphs follows: "Clinton, Edwards, and Obama have said they would leave tens of thousands of troops in Iraq."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike
There's yet another new spot out there this morning that takes McCain to task on illegal immigration. Despite McCain's attempts to change course on the issue, acknowledging that the American people spoke by coming out in force against the comprehensive immigration legislation that he co-sponsored, the first thing the ad reminds voters is: "McCain championed a bill to let every illegal immigrant stay in America permanently."
Just before issuing the ad, the camp blasted out a release about McCain in which spokesman Kevin Madden stated: "Senator McCain has a troubling history of neglecting substantive issues and getting personal in his attacks against those who happen to disagree with him. It’s the McCain way."
Despite the volley with the McCain campaign, team Huckabee is coming out against Romney in force in Iowa. A Huckabee supporter has been trailing the campaign at a couple of events in the Hawkeye State over the last couple of days and has been approaching the press. Today in the Midtown Cafe in Newton - at Romney's second event -- he identified himself not as a staffer but as a supporter and notified reporters that several members of the Arkansas legislature were holding an informal session with reporters after the event to debunk some of Romney's claims about the former Arkansas governor.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger Giuliani is back in Iowa for the first time in a couple of weeks, and he brought with him a new brochure that is unlike anything we’ve seen before. Instead of the standard red, white and blue, Giuliani’s latest pamphlet is gold, with “Shared Values Coalition” in bold letters at the top.
And inside is Giuliani, side by side with Pat Robertson. It quotes his remarks on faith from the Value Voters Summit in October and other religious leaders. “Rudy Giuliani Shares Our Values” is in block letters along the top.
It also includes a new set of “The Mayor’s Commitments.” It’s not the standard “Twelve Commitments” Giuliani references on a daily basis. This set of 10 includes supporting the Defense of Marriage Act, parental notifications for abortions and strengthening home schooling.
The brochure looks to galvanize members behind a new, faith-based coalition, called the “Shared Values Coalition.” This handout was nowhere to be seen in Florida the last few days.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro The Obama campaign today released a memo hitting Clinton and Edwards parts for an influx of support from outside groups into Iowa. The only one not benefiting is Obama, as he’s largely been going it alone.
”These latest revelations make it clear why Edwards was able to announce that he could accept public funds while still spending all he needed to spend in Iowa,” Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe writes. “His campaign simply exploited the biggest loophole in the campaign finance system in order to get public matching funds while arranging through allies to benefit from a 527. That’s how they avoided the spending limits that are a condition of the public matching funds.”
On Clinton, Plouffe denounces an anti-Obama AFSCME mailer. Notably, a pro-Edwards 527, funded largely by local SEIUs, is up with positive ads in Iowa for Edwards. AFSCME and the American Federation of Teachers have been out with mailers for Clinton. Clinton has not shied away from interest groups’ money, even defending them as real people at this summer’s YearlyKos convention. Edwards has campaigned hard on a platform against Washington interest group money, and has had to balance denouncing the 527 and embracing the support of the SEIU.
These are groups Obama lobbied, and they ultimately chose Edwards and Clinton. How would Obama have handled the situation differently if these groups had endorsed him?
Here’s the full memo:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann DES MOINES, IOWA -- OK, it's not Les Mis. But after six months of this, we could all use a laugh.
Last night marked the opening of Des Moines' most anticipated theatrical production -- Caucus! The Musical. The vision of Midwestern playwright Robert John Ford, the play gleefully pokes fun at the descent of four fictional presidential candidates into the small communities of Iowa by chronicling their shameless courtship of one Iowa farmer and his family.
A quick run through the original soundtrack demonstrates the production's flippant and witty tone. The apocryphal candidates and their campaign managers’ soft-shoe to the "Tough Question SideStep." Christian Right favorite the Rev. Stanley Jensen declares his candidacy, crooning, "So I questioned should I run? / First I wasn't much enticed / Then I got the thumbs up sign from Lord Jesus Christ." The gaggle of politicos ventures into the snowy hinterlands of Algona and Decorah with a Hawaiian-shirt clad parody of the Beach Boys' "Kokomo." And the whole cast hits a patriotic note with its rousing finale of "Get Off Your Sorry Ass and Vote."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike ALTOONA, Iowa -- Romney may be behind Huckabee in Iowa, but with scores of national reporters in nearby Des Moines checking out his message this morning, McCain remains his top target.
Again this morning he's touting his role as a change agent. He said that he can't forecast what will happen in the election, but he'd offer some of his thoughts on elections generally. One of his thoughts was, "No one votes for yesterday; they vote for tomorrow." He went on. "Elections are about the future, our future, our family's future, our nation's future."
Over the course of the last week, Romney started hitting harder the Washington outsider game that he brings as a governor from outside the Beltway. He told New Hampshire voters last weekend that if they wanted a politician who has spent nearly three decades in Washington, he was the wrong guy -- a direct swipe at McCain.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro DES MOINES, IA -- How crazy has the presidential contest become with now just five days until the Iowa caucuses? Well, yesterday, Romney and McCain were locked in the political equivalent of a steel-cage match over their sparring TV ads; the once pro-immigrant Huckabee was standing by his (incorrect) claim that there are more illegal immigrants from Pakistan than any other country south of the US border; the Clinton and Obama campaigns were scuffling over Obama's use of the word "tea"; the Obama and Edwards camps -- once friendly to one another -- were again going at it; and as of 7:00 pm ET last night, six campaigns unveiled a total of 10 new TV ads, per NBC's Lauren Appelbaum (one from Clinton, two from Edwards, two from McCain, two from Obama, two from Romney, and one from Thompson). Thursday can’t get here soon enough…
*** McCain vs. Romney: It’s not as red hot as we thought it would be back when McCain was a front-runner. But it’s getting there. It all started when Romney tried to do a soft negative on the Arizona senator -- similar how Romney's been going negative on Huckabee here in Iowa. Well, McCain's camp decided to bring a gun to a knife fight and unloaded on Romney with a TV that quotes those two devastating editorials from the Concord Monitor and New Hampshire Union Leader. Romney's favorables may not be high enough in either Iowa or New Hampshire to sustain massive negative hits. That said, Romney got into this bash-fest first, which means his paid response to McCain is likely to be harder. To reporters, Romney hinted at how he'll fight back against McCain: questioning his temperament.
*** Is Huck ready? On TODAY this morning, Huckabee attempted to re-explain his immigration-Pakistani claim that he made Friday morning. While he proved once again to be very good at talking his way out of a potential controversy, the misstep is a reminder that he's still a rookie candidate prone to mistakes. Also, while the McCain-Romney exchanges are hot right now, don't overlook the onslaught of negatives being dumped on Huckabee by Romney and the Club for Growth. In fact, the Huck folks -- worried about his momentum going from Huckaboom to Huckabust -- seem poised to fight back against Romney. For the first time last night, Huckabee brought up Romney by name at a campaign stop, NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy notes. And the campaign is not ruling out a paid response, say, by Monday.
*** Phone home: Speaking of gaffes, did Edwards duck one? Yesterday, we noted Edwards' phone call to Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf, which was dutifully returned. Seemed like a good gambit, right? Well, what if Musharraf ends up being implicated in Bhutto's assassination? As we noted yesterday, had either Clinton or Obama done this, they would have been killed by the Chattering Class (and their rivals). Edwards' folks may complain that they don't get the same treatment from the media as Clinton and Obama do, but sometimes that may be a good thing.
*** Now or never? This didn’t get the play it deserved yesterday: Obama told his supporters if he doesn't win in 2008, he won't try again later on. "My wife and I were talking the other day, and she said we're not doing this again," he said. It’s a fascinating closing argument. Will he say it again?
*** First Read weather update: Between now and Caucus Day, we'll be mentioning the Iowa weather forecast for January 3. Bottom line: It’s looking like it will be clear and cold. Per weather.com, the day is expected to be mostly sunny with a high of 28 in the day and partly cloudy and 22 at night in Des Moines; in the west in Council Bluffs, the forecast is for 34 and windy in the daytime and partly cloudy and 22 at night; and in the east in Dubuque, they are looking at a much colder day/night -- with a high of 25 and windy in the daytime and 23 and mostly cloudy at night.
*** Some just askin's: As the hours wind down here in Iowa, we figured we'd close each First Thoughts with a few questions to ponder: Is there a Ron Paul "Mendoza" line, meaning that candidates that finish below Paul in the caucuses (Rudy? Fred?) have MAJOR problems? What about this enthusiasm gap? Huckabee and Giuliani yesterday had decent turnouts -- but they were on a scale of what Joe Biden gets, and about a third of what Obama or Clinton receive.
*** On the trail: Once again, almost everyone is in Iowa today: Biden hits Independence, Manchester, Elkader, and Dubuque; Clinton stops in Eldridge, Clinton, Maquoketa, and Manchester; Edwards is in Muscatine, Washington, Knoxville, and Des Moines (where he holds a rally in the evening); Giuliani goes to Clive, Indianola, and Pleasant; Huckabee campaigns in Osceola, Indianola, and Perry; Obama travels to Burlington, Madison, Keokuk, Mt. Pleasant, and Ottumwa; Richardson stumps in West Liberty, Iowa City, and Cedar Rapids; and Romney is in Altoona, Newton, Pella, Oskaloosa, Ottumwa, and Burlington. Elsewhere, McCain campaigns in New Hampshire, as does Bill Clinton, who hits Nashua, Dover, and Portsmouth.
Countdown to Iowa: 5 days
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The Washington Post says that Edwards and Obama “are engaged in an increasingly pointed duel over which man is the true messenger of ‘change’ in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination -- with both drawing heavily from Bill Clinton's themes during his first campaign for the White House… [W]ith Clinton dominating the issue of experience, change remains the central battleground for Edwards and Obama.”
National Journal's Ron Brownstein delves inside the numbers of the latest L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll in Iowa. His conclusion: "Edwards is siphoning away votes both Obama and Clinton probably hoped to attract here. Because Edwards is now stronger among men than women, he is hurting Obama (especially among college men). But because Edwards is stronger downscale than upscale, he is hurting Clinton (especially among the non-college men). All of these cross pressures have produced a race far too close to call."
On a similar note, The Los Angeles Times writes about how Obama has recalibrated his rhetoric a bit to appeal to some of the same blue-collar voters that have formed the support foundation for both Edwards and Clinton. This piece couches the Obama shift as a direct reaction to Edwards.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times notes that many of the presidential candidates continued to talk about Pakistan and Bhutto’s death while on the campaign trail yesterday. “Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Democrats who have struggled to attract voters’ attention, edged into the spotlight on Friday after talking about Pakistan for weeks… Senators John McCain, Republican of Arizona, and Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, spent the day asserting their own personal expertise: their private conversations with Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Musharraf, their visits to Pakistan and their concerns about fallout affecting the nation’s nuclear arsenal to the hunt for Osama bin Laden.”
“The Bhutto assassination is one of those rare things in a presidential race -- an unscripted, unexpected moment that lays bare a candidate’s leadership qualities and geopolitical smarts. Think of Mr. bin Laden’s videotape message late in the 2004 election … or the twists of the Iranian hostage crisis in 1980.”
In a conference call with reporters yesterday, Huckabee cited an article from the Denver Post written by Bruce Finley as the source for his information on his claim that there are more illegal immigrants from Pakistan than from any other country besides south of the US border, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy reports. (Here's the full write-up .). “The number came from Homeland Security,” Huckabee said, referring to his speech yesterday in which he claimed that 660 illegal Pakistani immigrants entered the US last year. “There are two stories that are published that report that number. One is Bruce Finley of the Denver Post and there is also a Jim Pinkerton column in which that is mentioned. And that's where that figure, they were quoting Homeland Security on that number.”
CONTINUED >>
"The battle between Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire's Republican primary took a significant turn yesterday as Romney unveiled his first television advertisement attacking McCain's record," the Boston Globe writes. McCain responded with an ad attacking Romney, using the words of two editorials, one of which describes Romney as a "phony."
Romney said this about the McCain ad, per NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike, “It's nasty. It's mean-spirited. Frankly, it tells you more about Sen. McCain than it does about me that he would run an ad like that.”
NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli was with McCain in New Hampshire, and he quotes McCain on the Romney ad exchange: "I was encouraged because it’s clear that Gov. Romney attacks when people are catching up with him. And I understand why he’s talking about the future since he’s spent most of his time running away from his past. But we’ll respond. And we have to respond, and we will respond. But we will conduct this campaign in a dignified manner, on the issues. The people of New Hampshire, I would like to tell Governor Romney, don’t respond favorably to negative ad campaigns. That’s not what the people of New Hampshire want when they choose a leader. And we won’t engage in that kind of campaigning nor will we stoop to responding to a lot of it."
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: "Farmer Garry Klicker and some other family-farm advocates say Democrat Hillary Clinton's choice of a leader of her rural campaign committee casts doubt on her credibility on small-farm issues," the Des Moines Register writes. "Clinton picked the owner of a large-scale livestock operation who has promoted national corporate agriculture interests to be co-chairwoman of "Rural Americans for Hillary."
EDWARDS: The Obama folks seem a bit exasperated by the 527 help Edwards is receiving, particularly Alliance for a New America, which is run by his former campaign manager. As the Washington Post reports, one of the Alliance for a New America donors is a trust for a 97-year-old woman, which gave the group almost $500,000. The trust is run by attorney, Alexander Forger, who himself is a maxed out contributor to Edwards.
Edwards has an op-ed in the Boston Globe , entitled, "Rallying the middle class." In it, he lays out his four-step plan to help the middle class, the basis for closing argument speech delivered yesterday.
CONTINUED >>
Don’t be surprised if this becomes something some of the Democratic presidential candidates talk about on the campaign trail today. “[O]n Friday, with no warning, a vacationing Mr. Bush announced that he was vetoing a sweeping military policy bill because of an obscure provision that could expose Iraq’s new government to billions of dollars in legal claims dating to Saddam Hussein’s rule,” the New York Times writes. “The decision left the Bush administration scrambling to promise that it would work with Congress to quickly restore dozens of new military and veterans programs once Congress returns to work in January.”
More: “Mr. Bush’s veto surprised and infuriated Democratic lawmakers and even some Republicans, who complained that the White House had failed to raise its concerns earlier. And it gave Democrats a chance to wield Mr. Bush’s support-the-troops oratory against him, which they did with relish.”
The Washington Post : “At issue is a provision of the defense bill that would amend the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act. It was championed by Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) as a way to give victims of state-sponsored terrorism legal recourse. Such victims would be entitled to sue countries in U.S. courts. In a statement, Lautenberg said the measure was intended to extend redress to victims of such state-sponsored terrorist attacks as the Iran-led bombing of a Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983 and Libya's downing of an airliner over Lockerbee, Scotland, in 1988. Lautenberg's statement did not address whether the measure also created the unintended consequences for Iraq cited by Bush.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum told his supporters if he doesn't win in 2008, he won't be trying again later on. "My wife and I were talking the other day, and she said we're not doing this again," he said in Williamsburg, Iowa.
But it's not just because Michelle Obama misses her husband and wants her home. Obama said his wife said they will be different people in eight years and not be able to connect to ordinary "normal" Americans -- unlike now, when it is just five years since they still had law school loans and were living in a two small condo with no college fund started for their kids.
"We'll still be good people hopefully but we'll be in a different orbit, in a different circle," Obama said. "Our worries will be different and our concerns will be different. We're already there but at least we still remember what that was like."
"I thought that was a wonderful insight," he continued. "One of the things that I think I offer in this race is, you know, the way she put it was, we still remember what it is like to be normal. But I think that's part of what happens when you are in Washington for very long time. You lose touch with that. Then it becomes harder to relinquish power."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy OTTUMWA, IA -- In a conference call with reporters held this afternoon Huckabee cited an article from the Denver Post written by Bruce Finley as the source for his information on the number of illegal Pakistani immigrants who have entered the U.S.
“The number came from homeland security,” Huckabee said, referring to his speech this morning where he claimed that 660 illegal Pakistani immigrants entered the U.S. last year. “There are two stories that are published that report that number. One is Bruce Finley of the Denver Post, and there is also a Jim Pinkerton column in which that is mentioned. And that's where that figure, they were quoting Homeland Security on that number.”
Later in the call, Pinkerton said that his article referenced Finley’s, meaning that Finley’s March 2006 article is the source of the misleading information. Although that number is included in the Denver Post’s article in association with Pakistani immigrants, it is in reference to “non-Mexican migrants caught entering the United States illegally in fiscal years 2002 to 2005,” not the number that entered last year.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
"The Union Leader says John McCain has 'conviction' and 'Granite Staters want a candidate who will look them in the eye and tell them the truth,'" and announcer says, adding, "'John McCain has done that. Mitt Romney has not.' The Concord Monitor writes, 'If a candidate is a phony ... we'll know it. Mitt Romney is such a candidate.'"
From NBC's Andy Merten Giuliani is trying to bounce back from weeks off the radar of the national media (save for a health scare that garnered a day worth of less-than-positive coverage), look only at the cable news trifectas he's pulled two days in a row.
Notably, his media push comes on the heels of yesterday's assasination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Giuliani is re-hitting the airwaves with his tough-on-terror message.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike and NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum LE MARS, Iowa -- On the same day the Romney campaign releases a contrast ad with McCain, he is up with another , similarly structured ad contrasting himself with Huckabee. Similar to the McCain ad, an announcer speaks over ominous music, attacking Huckabee on being "soft on government spending" and "1033 pardons and commutations."
Then another announcer, above hopeful music, touts Romney's accomplishments and depicts him as a traditional, hard-nosed Republican. "Mitt Romney held spending down, below inflation. Cut taxes. Zero pardons. The difference? Strong leadership?"
The ad also lambastes Huckabee for supporting in-state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants and granting more than 1,000 pardons and commutations as governor.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann
At the top of the list of candidates trying to catch the news wave is Richardson , who gave a policy address today in Des Moines about the churning turmoil in Pakistan. Richardson, the only candidate to have called for Pervez Musharraf to step down, told supporters that his Democratic rivals have "misplaced faith" in the existing government in the country, adding that America has "subsidized oppression for too long" by supporting its current president.
His campaign message? "We cannot afford another president who is a foreign policy novice," he said today. "The American people should not settle for untested leadership."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller DUBUQUE, Iowa -- Edwards gave an amped up version of his stump speech at the Colts Community Center as the campaign neared six days to the caucus.
After introductions from U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley and Iowa First Lady Mari Culver, both Edwards endorsers, the candidate stood to tell Iowans that there are “four truths” that need to be spoken before the caucus.
“Everything that makes America America is threatened today. The very things that make the promise of equal opportunity possible are at risk,” he said first. He added that the election is not just another round in a fight between political parties but an “epic struggle for the America we believe in.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Richardson v. Dodd Speaking on Morning Joe at 7:30 this morning, Bill Richardson once again called for Musharraf to step down. "He is deeply unpopular. Two-thirds of the Pakistani people want him out. He can't keep internal order in his country," Richardson said. "There's a provision in the Pakistani constitution that calls for an interim caretaker government of technocrats. I would urge Musharraf to set that up and then to hold elections as quickly as possible."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan
The
Obama campaign is launching two separate ads in New Hampshire and Iowa. In New Hampshire, “
Unify ,” is a 30-second spot that highlights the endorsements Obama has received as someone who can bridge the political divide in the United States. On screen lines from editorials in the Portsmouth Herald, the Boston Globe, the Valley News and the Nashua Telegraph appear as a voice over from Obama says, “We have a chance to bring the country together….”
In Iowa, “Listening ,” is a 60-second spot that attempts to reach out to Democrats, Republicans and Independents.
Obama opens the ad by saying, “America is listening. Not just Democrats but Republicans and Independents who’ve lost trust in their government but want to believe again.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC’s Ben Weltman
PELLA, Iowa --
Huckabee was at it again today trying to bring home the immigration issue to Iowa caucus-goers. At a Pizza Ranch here this morning, he told an audience of more than 250 people, "In light of what happened in Pakistan yesterday it's interesting that there were more Pakistanis who illegally crossed the border than of any other nationality except for those immediately south of our border -- 660 last year."
Afterwards at a media avail, he was asked where he had gotten his numbers. Huckabee replied, "It’s come largely from CIA numbers, and I'll get you the exact source but those are numbers that I got today from a briefing and I believe they are CIA and/or immigration numbers."
What strikes us most is his attempt to connect Pakistani illegal immigration in the United States to Benazir Bhutto 's assasination yesterday. "And so the way it affects that is that we need to understand that violence and terror is significant when it happens in Pakistan, it's more significant if it could happen in our own cities, and it happens if people can slip across our border and we have no control over them."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones said the Pakistani government does not have enough credibility to investigate Benazir Bhutto's death and is calling for an international probe into it.
She said the probe should perhaps be along the lines of what the UN is doing to look into Rafik Hariri's death in Lebanon. Clinton declined to call for Musharraf to step down, but said he should meet certain conditions.
"We should immediately move to free and fair elections," she said.
Clinton noted that Bhutto's party would need time to choose successor and that Nawaz Sharif, another opposition leader, has said he would not take part in the election.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Domenico Montanaro
"Born For" is airing in New Hampshire and “Native Son” airs in South Carolina, where Edwards was born.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum The Clinton campaign has a new ad running in Iowa called "President." She goes after President Bush and Wall Street for not doing more on the housing crisis and outlines her plan to combat it.
SCRIPT: ANNCR: What if we had a different president this year? Hillary Clinton called for action on America's housing crisis in March, in June, in August. George Bush and Wall Street did nothing.Since then, home prices have plummeted and millions may lose their homes. Hillary's plan: Freeze home foreclosures. Freeze rates on adjustable mortgages. Provide real tax relief for the middle class. When we choose a president next year, let's choose one that would have started fixing our economy this year.
From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
The American Federation of Teachers has hit Iowa with a
mailer for Hillary
Clinton . It reads, “As teachers, we know when someone is prepared. The American Federation of Teacher knows: Hillary Clinton is prepared to deliver change.”
The mailer then cites her endorsement of the Des Moines Register and adds, “All of the candidates want change. The question is: Who has the right combination of skills, experience and determination to make change happen? Whether it’s education, health care or the economy, Hillary
Clinton is best prepared to take on the challenges we face -- and she’s ready to lead from Day One.
That’s why she is supported by the 1.4-million-member American Federation of Teachers.”
It closes with this: “Hillary is prepared to bring real change. Caucus for Hillary on January 3rd.”
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
ROCK RAPIDS, Iowa -- Romney began his first official bus tour this morning in western Iowa carrying the message, "we don't vote for yesterday, we do vote for tomorrow."
Part of Romney's rallying cry sounded his theme of optimism and went like this: "I'm convinced that the source of America's strength is the beliefs and the values of the American people. It's not goverment that makes us strong; it's our people. It's hardworking, God fearing, education loving, opportunity seeking, risk taking, patriotic American people."
The arc of his closing message covers both change and security. Sept. 11 crept back into his notes on national security and how it came to play in his experience handling the 2002 Winter Olympics. He informed the audience that the Salt Lake City games represented "the first event on the international stage... the first national special security event after 9/11," and that he "was able to turn those games around with the help of a lot of other great people and have safe games."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The SEIU defended an affiliated pro-
Edwards 527, which is running ads in favor of Edwards. Alliance for New America, funded by the SEIU, is running $750,000 worth of TV advertising in Iowa. An adviser to the group is Edwards' former campaign manager, and the group and Edwards have faced scrutiny for their involvement.
“While SEIU did not create the Alliance for a New America, the union supports the entity because it shares our goal of sparking a discussion of how best address the concerns of working people in America,” writes Dave Regan, SEIU president, in a press release. “The union's support for the Alliance for a New America has been given in full accordance with both the spirit and letter of the laws governing 527 political organizations. There has been no coordination or discussion of our support for the organization's work with any individual candidate or campaign at any time.
“SEIU leaders will continue to separate any 527 activities from any discussions with candidates. Moreover, a thorough review of the ads reveals that the ads are focused on the issues and do not attack any candidates.”
*** UPDATE *** Caucus blog that "two campaign-finance advocacy groups -- Democracy 21 and the Campaign Legal Center -- argue that the Alliance for a New America may be violating other campaign finance rules."
The Edwards campaign responded that "As soon as SEIU officials informed us, later on, that some of their staff would no longer able to communicate with us about the campaign, we immediately stopped all conversation with them, as we legally had to."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Lauren Appelbaum
Romney and
McCain went up with dueling advertisements in New Hampshire. And both have very different tones.
Romney, the only candidate to run contrast TV ads so far this campaign season, is up with another -- this time against McCain, who won the Granite State primary in 2000. At least one poll showed McCain and Romney in a statistical tie in the state. Romney has lead by double-digits there for most of the campaign season.
"John McCain, an honorable man. But is he the right Republican for the future?" says an announcer over ominous music. The announcer then says McCain is against a repeal of the estate tax, voted against Bush tax cuts and "pushed to let every illegal immigrant stay here permanently."
Above more hopeful music, the announcer says, "Mitt Romney cut taxes and spending as Governor. He opposes amnesty for illegals. Mitt Romney. John McCain. There is a difference."
Continue reading to view the ads
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Six days to go: DES MOINES, Iowa -- With six days until the first nominating contest, all three Democratic front-runners are talking about change and about who can best deliver it. Yesterday, in his big closing argument speech -- overshadowed by Benazir Bhutto’s assassination -- Obama said in words aimed directly at Hillary Clinton, “The real gamble in this election is playing the same Washington game with the same Washington players and expecting a different result.” Clinton, meanwhile, says she’s the one who can best bring out change. “Some people think you can bring about change by demanding it and some people think you can bring about change by hoping for it,” she has said, referring to Edwards and Obama. “I think you bring about change by working hard for it." And today, Edwards gives his closing argument, in which he’s expected say (in words aimed squarely at Obama), “Compromise and conciliation is the academic theory of change. It just doesn’t work in the real world. Fighting for conviction is the historic reality of change.” The AP’s Ron Fournier nails it in his latest column: “Most voters want it. The candidates all promise it. The presidential race hinges on it. But nobody can quite agree on the meaning of the single most important word of the election: Change.” And don't miss Obama's comment to Fournier calling Clinton a "caretaker" president.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on how the death of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto will affect the presidential campaign efforts. *** Bhutto fallout: The big political news yesterday, of course, was Bhutto’s death and the candidates’ reactions to it. Have we seen this movie before? Does it feel like this race has now fundamentally shifted, issues-wise, almost like it did when the bin Laden tape came out right before the 2004 general election? If the caucuses were set to take place in the next 48-72 hours, this could be correct. But the caucuses are six days away. Remember that a 24-hour news cycle can make a story like this seem HUGE in the moment -- and then it disappears soon after. Will anything else advance the story into the weekend? Better yet, will other campaigns (say Giuliani’s or McCain’s) try and keep this in the news? Or will this story fade faster than we realize because of the weekend and the New Year’s holiday?
*** Here comes Richardson: Bill Richardson is definitely trying to keep the story in the news. Today, in Iowa, he gives a speech on Pakistan and the global threats the US faces. And, as he did yesterday, he will once again call for Musharraf to step down. ”Yesterday, I called for President Musharraf to step down,” he is expected to say. “Today, as a nation I am calling on the administration to stand firm for our ideals in the face of terrorism and in respect for the ideals Bhutto stood for. Anything less would send a dangerous signal to the world that terrorism alters our resolve.”
*** Who benefited and who didn’t: The obvious CW says that Clinton and Biden (on the Democratic side) and Giuliani and McCain (on the GOP side) perhaps benefit the most from Bhutto’s death and the instability in Pakistan. Clinton, after all, was already on message pre-Bhutto, as she talked about the unexpected that could happen earlier this week. And Biden has a TV ad up that’s focused on an empty chair in the Oval Office predicting that an unexpected moment will test the next president. McCain seemed the most comfortable yesterday, contrasting his experience with the rest of the field and singling out other candidates by name. And Giuliani was everywhere yesterday and today. On the "hurt" side of the equation, Huckabee seemed to be the candidate least comfortable talking about this issue. He even tied yesterday's assassination with immigration last night, which seemed, well, disjointed. Huck also slipped when he wondered whether there would still be martial law in Pakistan (martial law, however, was lifted in that country two weeks ago).
*** Politicize this: Edwards and Obama also seemed less sure-footed, though both attempted to prove their foreign policy credentials, with Edwards going so far to brag that he talked to Musharraf yesterday. By the way, imagine if Clinton had said that yesterday… Something tells us there would have been a lot of criticism of politicizing the incident. Of course, there was criticism of politicization: Obama strategist David Axelrod seemed to link Bhutto’s killing and the instability in Pakistan to the Iraq war (and Clinton’s vote for it), while Evan Bayh said the situation showed the need for electing a president with “seasoning.” On CNN, Obama was pressed hard about Axelrod's comments, and he didn't back down from them completely.
*** TV ads everywhere: The TV ad barrage in Iowa really has to be experienced first-hand. You can't really understand it until you spend 30 minutes watching a local newscast here in Des Moines, where every single TV ad during the commercial breaks is from a presidential candidate or a group pushing a presidential candidate. Frankly, nothing breaks out -- we're guessing the Huckabee Christmas ad did have a real impact at the time, because it was far different than anything else on the air. Clinton has an ad in which no one speaks, and that stands out from the crowd. It's a real challenge to media consultants to come up with something that pops. And this may explain why Clinton is going with buying two minutes of ad time the day before the caucuses (something George Allen tried in 2006), because that could break through the clutter. It will be the first time any candidate has attempted to break out of the 30- or 60-second box. With all this money on both sides, isn't it surprising no one's tried the Ross Perot 30-minute paid town hall? Or something like that?
*** On the trail: Once again, almost everyone (Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Obama, Richardson, Romney, and Thompson) is in Iowa. Elsewhere, Giuliani -- before he heads to Iowa -- picks up an endorsement in Orlando, FL; McCain later travels to New Hampshire; and Paul also campaigns in the Granite State.
Countdown to Iowa: 6 days
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The Washington Post's Kornblut and Murray note that the Bhutto assassination came just hours before Obama was to deliver his closing argument. For Clinton, "Bhutto's death helped underscore the line she has been driving home for months -- about who is best suited to lead the nation at a time of international peril. In her comments Thursday, Clinton described Bhutto in terms Obama (D-Ill.) could not: as a fellow mother, a pioneering woman following in a man's footsteps, and a longtime peer on the world stage.”
“The differing reactions of Clinton and Obama to the assassination crystallized the debate between the two just a week before Iowans will decide the first contest in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination."
The AP's Espo looks at how the Bhutto assassination could affect the presidential campaign in the waning days of the Iowa caucuses. McCain and Clinton "who have made experience a cornerstone of their campaigns, said the murder was proof of a need for a president who is ready to take command." Clinton "declined to be drawn into a discussion about the impact" on Barack Obama. But "McCain was not so reticent about comparing his experience with that of other GOP contenders. ‘My theme has been throughout this campaign that I'm the one with the experience, the knowledge and the judgment. So perhaps it may serve to enhance those credentials to make people understand that I've been to Pakistan, I know Musharraf, I can pick up the phone and call him. I knew Benazir Bhutto.’”
CONTINUED >>
A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows a tight race in Iowa with Clinton leading at 29%, followed by Obama at 26% and Edwards at 25%. Yet in New Hampshire, Obama leads with 32% -- followed by Clinton at 30% and Edwards at 18%.
On the attributes front, the poll found similar results as other surveys. "Clinton is viewed as most experienced, best prepared to be president and most qualified to handle a range of important issues, including Iraq, terrorism, the economy and health care. She also is viewed as the least honest candidate and less likely to produce change in Washington than Obama, 46. By contrast, Obama, is viewed by both Iowa and New Hampshire voters as an agent of change, the more honest candidate and most likely to tell voters what he thinks rather than what they want to hear."
On the GOP side, the poll finds Huckabee with a very large lead over Romney in Iowa, 37%-23%. In New Hampshire, Romney leads big over McCain, 34%-21%, followed by Giuliani at 14%, and Huckabee at 9%. "The poll shows stark differences among Iowa caucus-goers and New Hampshire primary voters on religion. In Iowa, Republicans by almost 3 to 1 say Huckabee's religious beliefs are a positive factor. Almost half of these Iowa voters say Romney's Mormon faith is a negative.
CONTINUED >>
Nationally, Huckabee and Giuliani are in a statistical tie in a national AP-Yahoo! poll with Huckabee at 22% and Giuliani 21%. McCain places third place with 14%, followed by Romney 13% and Thompson 11%.
GIULIANI: On any other day, this New York Times story -- which details Giuliani's role in helping the OxyContin drug maker deal with a government and PR disaster -- could be a big deal. But this now might only come back to hurt Giuliani in a general if a Dem foe brings it up.
Giuliani -- "suffering from a slide in the polls -- unveiled his first TV ad invoking the Sept. 11 attacks and showing images of firefighters at Ground Zero," the New York Post writes. McCain took a swipe at Giuliani "'As far as I know, Mayor Giuliani has never been to Iraq,' McCain, a Vietnam POW, said while stumping at an Elks Lodge in Des Moines. He praised Giuliani's 9/11 performance but said it had 'little to do with national security.'"
CONTINUED >>
In case you are wondering, it appears Al Gore may not endorse in the Democratic primary.
Nationally, Clinton leads 47%-25% over Obama in a new AP-Yahoo! poll . Edwards takes third with 13%.
CLINTON: The New Hampshire Union Leader profiles the New York senator. "Clinton is out to convince voters she will be the president who can bring affordable health care coverage to all Americans. At most campaign stops, health care is the first topic to come up. But for some voters, questions still exist about the viability of her plan: providing to everyone in the country the same level of coverage enjoyed by federal employees, including members of Congress like herself."
EDWARDS: The war of words on change continues with Edwards today making what appears to be a direct response to Obama's closing argument from Thursday. From an excerpt: “Nobody who takes their money and defends the broken system is going to bring change. And, unfortunately, nobody who thinks we can just sit down and talk them into compromise is going to bring change either. Why on earth would we expect the corporate powers and their lobbyists -- who make billions by selling out the middle-class -- to just give up their power because we ask them nicely? Compromise and conciliation is the academic theory of change. It just doesn’t work in the real world. Fighting for conviction is the historic reality of change.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray noted Clinton surrogate Evan Bayh arguing that the Bhutto assassination showed the need for electing a president with “seasoning.”
Well, courtesy of Time , here's top Obama strategist David Axelrod seeming to link Bhutto's death and the Iraq war. "Bhutto’s death will 'call into issue the judgment: who’s made the right judgments,' Axelrod said. 'Obviously, one of the reasons that Pakistan is in the distress that it’s in is because al-Qaeda is resurgent, has become more powerful within that country and that’s a consequence of us taking the eye off the ball and making the wrong judgment in going into Iraq. That’s a serious difference between these candidates and I’m sure that people will take that into consideration.'" via CNN , Axelrod appeared to back away from that comment. "'I believe our policies in Iraq have had a direct impact on events in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but I would not suggest there is a straight line relationship between the events of today in Pakistan and anyone’s particular vote,' he said. 'What I was pointing out was the difference in judgment at the time. Obama thought that the war would have a negative impact in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that seems relevant right now.'"
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
"Obviously today we just want to express our sympathies to the Pakistani people and the Bhutto family about the assassination," he said. "I've been saying for some time that we've got a very big problem there."
He elaborated: “Not only do we have a president who has acted in an anti-democratic fashion the past, but we also have the rise of Islamic militants in the northwest provinces that are going back and forth between the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
Obama added that Al Qaeda now has a base in Pakistan and American intelligence says that the group is stronger there now than they were before 2001.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller Edwards spoke in Waukon this afternoon about having calls in to Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf . Then, at his second event in Decorah, he told Iowans that he got his call returned.
“He called me,” Edwards said, “because I told the ambassador I’d like to speak to him. I met him a few years ago, which I think I told you earlier, and we had a conversation in which I urged him to continue the democratization process. He told me, he gave me his assurances that he intended to do that, and we also spoke about having international independent investigators allowed into the country for transparency purposes, for credibility purposes, and we spoke briefly about the elections.”
Edwards is the only candidate to have said publicly that he received a call from Musharraf today. Edwards did not join in the fight between rivals Clinton and Obama over which candidate has the best foreign policy advisers, and asked what this conversation does for his own foreign policy credibility, Edwards referred back to the complexity of the issue.
“I think that the most important thing is to understand what’s actually happening within Pakistan, the complex nature of the problems there, and to be visionary about what America needs to be doing,” he told reporters.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Romney switched up his stump speech today and even kept notes with him to offer his closing remarks to New Hampshire voters, but his efforts were overshadowed by the death of Benazir Bhutto.
Reporters buzzed after he made a statement early this morning about Bhutto that he didn't offer his condolences, which he made certain to do later -- both in his remarks before supporters at the American Credit Union Museum and in a second session with reporters.
He refused to discuss what he would do in a hypothetical situation, but he summed up his message that the key is "to develop that kind of process and develop comprehensive strategies to help support moderate voices within the world of Islam so that we don’t have to be responding to crises."
Romney also said he didn't have the classified information available to offer much depth of insight into the situation, but he pointed out that he has been critical of Musharraf in the past for his decision to impose martial law in Pakistan.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten Clinton gave a more personal account of her relationship with the late Benazir Bhutto , which dates back to her years as First Lady.
“I met her young children, her husband, her mother -- a lot of her family members,” she said while campaigning in Denison, IA this afternoon. “We stayed in touch throughout the years, met on several occasions, always talked about her commitment to bringing democracy back to Pakistan, and we talked about our children.”
Maintaining a somber tone throughout her opening remarks, the presidential hopeful continued: “This is a terrible loss -- certainly on a personal level -- for those of us who knew her, who were impressed by her commitment, her dedication, her willingness to pick up the mantle of her father, who was also assassinated. It’s a terrible, terrible, tragedy, but it’s also a tremendous loss for the people of Pakistan.”
Although her remarks this afternoon sounded more like a eulogy of the former prime minister, Clinton this morning also warned of the geopolitical implications of her assassination. “The world once again is reminded of the dangers facing those who pursue democracy and free elections in Pakistan and elsewhere -- in areas that are rife with conflict and violence and extremism,” she said at her first stop in Lawton. And at both stops, Clinton pledged to assist the future democratization of Pakistan, both from Capitol Hill and perhaps the Oval Office.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Clinton has a new
television advertisement in South Carolina that begins airing today. In it, an announcer touts Clinton's work in providing health-care coverage for children, giving National Guard members access to health care, and for protecting Social Security. "Hillary spent 35 years standing up for people," the narrator says. "As president, she'll stand up for you."
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann DES MOINES, Iowa -- If there's a safe space between politics and policy, Biden stayed in it until the last question of the day. A somber Biden appeared this morning at a hastily assembled press conference to address the assassination of Pakistani political figure Benazir Bhutto .
Calling her death "a genuine tragedy," the senator called for a transparent investigation into the attack and said that he had twice asked Pakistan's president to provide better protection to the slain Bhutto.
"This fall," he told reporters, "I twice urged President Musharraf to provide her with better security." He added, “The failure to protect Mrs. Bhutto raises a lot of hard questions for the government and the security services that have to be answered.”
Asked if his statement implied that Musharraf's government may have been negligent or even complicit in Bhutto's assassination, Biden responded that he cannot comment on any blame to be laid at the feet of the Pakistani government without knowing all the facts of the attack.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli and Athena Jones
But that didn't stop Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh (D) -- campaigning here on Clinton's behalf -- from arguing that the assasination showed the need for a president with “seasoning.”
Bayh, a red-state Democrat who endorsed Clinton in September, actually learned of Bhutto’s killing when one of the two-dozen voters gathered here asked him for his reaction. “There is a deep strain of radicalism,” he said, “and this assassination is a manifestation of that.”
Bayh then related his experience on a trip to the region with Clinton, saying she had already met several of the leaders the congressional delegation was meeting with. “I have seen firsthand in that very country the knowledge that she brings to the table, the respect with which she is held by people across the political spectrum," he said. "Knowing these individuals, knowing their background, their strengths and their weaknesses, and it just gives you a tremendous leg up in dealing with some of the problems that we face.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Christina Jamison and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Per
Clinton spokesman Jay Carson, the campaign has a two-minute ad buy on every Iowa TV station's 6 o'clock news on January 2, the day before the caucuses. It's being billed as "a very succinct version" of her closing argument.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan DES MOINES, IA -- To a packed room here filled with supporters and the national media, Obama laid out the closing arguments for why he should be president of the United States, basing his candidacy in a deep, personal faith for a better America born from his own personal story.
"The truth is, you can have the right kind of experience and the wrong kind of experience. Mine is rooted in the real lives of real people, and it will bring real results if we have the courage to change. I believe deeply in those words. But they are not mine. They were Bill Clinton's in 1992, when Washington insiders questioned his readiness to lead," Obama told the crowd to laughs and cheers.
Saying that the change he provides is what "Washington needs now," Obama held his opponents' feet to the fire as he ran through a litany of distinctions or attacks -- nine by our count -- on why he should be chosen to be the next president of the United States over Sens. Edwards or Clinton , although he didn't mention those rivals by name.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan campaign just released the prepared remarks of the speech today that's being billed as his closing remarks before the Iowa caucuses. By our count, there are at least nine shots/contrasts/digs/jabs -- whatever you want to call them -- at Clinton and Edwards , although he mentions neither by name.
AIMED AT CLINTON?
2. "We can't afford the same politics of fear that tells Democrats that the only way to look tough on national security is to talk, act, and vote like George Bush Republicans; that invokes 9/11 as a way to scare up votes instead of a challenge that should unite all Americans to defeat our real enemies."
3. "The real gamble in this election is playing the same Washington game with the same Washington players and expecting a different result. And that's a risk we can't take. Not this year. Not when the stakes are this high."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani is going back to the basics, invoking 9/11 imagery and Islamic terrorism in an effort to galvanize voters in Florida. He is doing it in a new ad , in which he relays the story of the “Greatest Generation” that he has been saying for several days. And he does it by picking his audiences, reaching out to veterans and law enforcement in the Miami area Thursday.
The ad, entitled “Freedom,” has Giuliani describing the Greatest Generation, as exemplified in Tom Brokaw’s book, and then saying those who helped at the World Trade Center were the children and grandchildren of those World War II heroes. “They have the same resolve, the same understanding.”
While Giuliani is certainly reaching out to his base, the ad can be seen as risky. Giuliani has been criticized for running on the events of Sept. 11, 2001, and using images from that day could rankle some victims’ families and others who will argue it is in bad taste.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Here's a wrap up of the candidates' statements not mentioned on First Read so far from Obama , Clinton , McCain and Kucinich and as well as New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg :
OBAMA: "I am shocked and saddened by the death of Benazir Bhutto in this terrorist atrocity. She was a respected and resilient advocate for the democratic aspirations of the Pakistani people. We join with them in mourning her loss, and stand with them in their quest for democracy and against the terrorists who threaten the common security of the world."
CLINTON: "I am profoundly saddened and outraged by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, a leader of tremendous political and personal courage. I came to know Mrs. Bhutto over many years, during her tenures as Prime Minister and during her years in exile. Mrs. Bhutto's concern for her country, and her family, propelled her to risk her life on behalf of the Pakistani people. She returned to Pakistan to fight for democracy despite threats and previous attempts on her life and now she has made the ultimate sacrifice. Her death is a tragedy for her country and a terrible reminder of the work that remains to bring peace, stability, and hope to regions of the globe too often paralyzed by fear, hatred, and violence.
*** UPDATE *** Edwards, Richardson, Biden and Huckabee weigh in
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney made the following statement on Bhutto's death in Pakistan. "We have all heard with great alarm and concern the reports of additional tragedy in Pakistan. At this stage, there are conflicting reports about whether Madame Bhutto has been killed or not. But there is, of course, the very risk that she has been killed," he said.
"This points out again the extraordinary reality of global violent radical jihadism. We don't know who is responsible for this attack but there is no question that the violence we see throughout the world is violence which is not limited to Iran, excuse me, Iraq, and Afghanistan -- but is more global in nature. And this type of loss of life points out again the need for our nation and other civilized nations of the West and of the civilized world to come together to support moderate Islamic leaders, moderate Islamic people -- to help them in their effort to reject the violent and the extreme. The world is very much at risk by virtue of these radical violent extremists, and we must come together in an effort in great haste and with grat earnestness to help overcome the threat of the spread of radical, violent Jihad."
From NBC's Mark Murray, Andrea Mitchell, and John Yang Clinton and Obama sparring over Pakistan and dealing with unsavory world leaders, or the GOP contenders emphasizing the specter of a nuclear Iran.
Yet in the last month, with the Iowa caucuses now just seven days away, foreign affairs has virtually disappeared from the campaign trail. But does Benazir Bhutto's assassination change things -- at least today?
In crass political terms, today's focus on Pakistan would seem to benefit Giuliani , because it raises the prominence of national security and terrorism versus domestic concerns. Indeed, Giuliani was the first presidential candidate to release a statement on Bhutto's death. "Her murderers must be brought to justice and Pakistan must continue the path back to democracy and the rule of law," he said. "Her death is a reminder that terrorism anywhere -- whether in New York, London, Tel-Aviv or Rawalpindi -- is an enemy of freedom. We must redouble our efforts to win the Terrorists' War on Us." (This statement coincides with the new 9/11 TV ad the Giuliani campaign begins running today.)
The attention on Pakistan would also seem to help McCain (whose national security credentials trump those of his GOP rivals) and possibly hurt Huckabee (whose public service was as governor of Arkansas). And what about Hillary Clinton, who is stressing her experience in an uncertain world versus Obama's message of change? Or even Biden?
*** UPDATE ***
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** Iowa “madness”: Exactly one week until the caucuses… Yesterday, in Iowa, Obama sharpened his attack on Clinton like never before (on secrecy and on the Clinton attack line that electing him would be risky). The question lots of folks are going to want to know today is whether Obama was actually saying voters who thought Clinton would bring change are “mad.” Obviously, he'd say no, but he did use the term "madness," which some might argue is insulting to some Clinton supporters. And today in Des Moines, Obama gives what is being billed as his closing speech, which will focus on change. Meanwhile, in her speeches and even in unveiling a new TV ad that begins running today, Clinton yesterday was touting her experience. But she also said she’s already changed so she can bring change. Read between those lines…
*** Romney on the attack -- and defense : Largely lost in yesterday’s focus on Iowa -- particularly Clinton’s and Obama’s speeches there -- was Romney on the attack in New Hampshire, blasting McCain on immigration. That came after the former governor had already whacked McCain on taxes and Huckabee on Bush’s foreign policy. But while was jabbing his GOP rivals, a counterpunch came from another editorial board: the influential New Hampshire Union Leader. Romney's challenges in both Iowa and New Hampshire appear to be greater by the day. Can he keep being the lone candidate staying on the attack, and also be the lone candidate taking hits from both candidates and these editorial pages? And don’t miss Romney’s statement that he could finish second in New Hampshire. “People usually say there are three tickets out of Iowa and then there are two tickets out of New Hampshire,” he said. “Everybody wants to win and I'd like to come in first. If I can't come in first, then I'd like to come in second.”
*** Busted? Did Edwards get caught coordinating with that pro-Edwards 527 that is running TV ads in Iowa? That's the implication in today’s New York Times , which reports on an email message from the union leaders who created the 527 suggesting “that they were talking with Edwards campaign officials about ‘what specific kinds of support they would like to see from us’ just as they were planning to create an outside group to advertise in early primary states with ‘a serious 527 legal structure.’” The 527’s ties to Edwards already smelled a little fishy, given that his 2004 campaign manager -- Nick Baldick -- was running the group. Does this New York Times report make things smell a bit worse for the candidate who is attacking the influence of special interests? This could be a bigger problem for Edwards in New Hampshire, where the issue of campaign reform is always on the minds of those "live free and die" voters.
*** A-hunting we will go : Move over John McCain, nobody does photo-ops better than Huckabee. His bird-hunting visual in Iowa yesterday got the shot in on Romney that they campaign wanted. (Remember Romney’s “varmits” and I’ve-been-a-hunter-all-my-life remark?) And by the way, Huckabee is now starting to rack up some more mainstream endorsements, like nods from Florida’s Senate majority whip and former Wyoming Gov. Jim Geringer. By the way, last week's focus on the "Christian" Christmas ad by Huckabee was thought by some to alienate the so-called "bubba" support Huckabee was getting from non-religious conservative blue-collar GOP voters. Yesterday's hunting photo-op may have been about Huckabee trying to stop the bleeding among those folks where his populist/anti-Wall Street message had been resonating.
*** Here comes 9/11. But what about Iowa? Now with the medical concerns behind him -- after last night’s statement from his doctor – Giuliani is now trying to spark his campaign with a new TV ad that plays up 9/11. The ad airs on broadcast Florida and New Hampshire outlets, as well as on Fox News cable nationally. What's left unsaid by the campaign -- but what the ad buy clearly indicates -- is that Giuliani is basically skipping Iowa. Sure, he'll campaign there a little bit, but he's not making a serious final push. He's done some radio and some mail in the previous months. But as the rubber hits the road, it doesn't appear he's going to make a real Iowa effort. Speaking of making real Iowa efforts, McCain's campaign released his schedule through January 4 and he'll be splitting time between Iowa and New Hampshire. We're still waiting on Giuliani's schedule post-December 30. Will he spend any part of next week in Iowa? If this TV ad buy is a clue, then probably not.
*** On the trail : Iowa remains the place to be: Clinton continues her “Big Challenges, Real Solutions: Time To Pick A President” tour, visiting Lawton, Denison, Carroll, and Guthrie Center; Dodd is in Waukon, West Union, Grinnell, and Des Moines; Edwards hits Waukon, Decorah, Waverly, and Waterloo; Huckabee holds a “We The People” event tonight in West Des Moines; McCain attends a rally in Des Moines before traveling to Clear Lake, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Cedar Falls; Obama continues his “Stand For Change” tour, visiting Des Moines (where he gives his big speech), Nevada, Marshalltown, Toledo, and Vinton; Paul has several events in Des Moines; Richardson is in Denison, Carroll, Jefferson, Boone, and Story City; and Thompson hits Urbandale, Osceola, Chariton, and Knoxville. Elsewhere, Huckabee is in Florida before he travels to Iowa; Giuliani also is in the Sunshine State, who visits Fort Lauderdale and Miami; and Romney remains in New Hampshire. Also, Michelle Obama stumps on her husband’s behalf in Iowa.
Countdown to Iowa: 7 days
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The Des Moines Register’s Yepsen previews the Iowa caucuses and writes about the implications of third place. “Third-place showings are likely to hold exactly opposite meanings in the two parties this cycle. On the Democratic side, a third-place finish will severely wound a leading candidate, perhaps mortally. On the Republican side, it just might provide a shot of political steroid for a lagging candidate as the race heads to New Hampshire.”
The Washington Post sums up the Dem race: "The issues of experience and change have defined the Democratic race for nearly a year, and the dichotomy continued to dominate as the three Democratic front-runners hit the campaign trail running after a Christmas break. Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), who plans to make his endgame pitch in a speech [today], urged voters to ask themselves, ‘Do you believe in change?’ Former senator John Edwards (N.C.) detoured through New Hampshire before a planned return to Iowa, arguing that his is a more radical call for change than Obama's. Clinton and Obama are launching television ads in the state to bolster their arguments as the three remain tightly bunched in surveys."
Obama will give a speech in Des Moines today that will provide a closing argument for why a junior senator from Illinois, with two years of national experience, should leapfrog over more experienced members of his own party to win the Democratic nomination and become president of the United States, NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan reports. Yesterday, he previewed that speech. “Everybody now is talking about change. If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery then we're doing pretty good here because in the beginning of this campaign we said we were going to bring about change, we're going to do things differently and now everybody is talking about change," he said.
CONTINUED >>
On the trail in the Granite State yesterday, Romney continued to be the candidate acting as if he's got the most to lose on January 3 and January 8 as he directly attacked a rival . "Romney attacked Mr. McCain for his support of legislation that would have allowed some illegal immigrants an opportunity to gain legal status, as well as his opposition to Mr. Bush’s tax cuts in 2001. ‘I don’t recall Senator McCain saying he was wrong to say that all illegal aliens should be able to stay here permanently, or that he was wrong to vote against the Bush tax cuts,’ Mr. Romney said. ‘I think he was.’”
The Boston Globe notes the sharp elbow at McCain and also covers the latest editorial board to write an anti-Romney endorsement -- this one from the New Hampshire Union Leader. “The Union Leader, which has endorsed McCain for president, wrote in its editorial: ‘In this primary, the more Mitt Romney speaks, the less believable he becomes. That is why Granite Staters who have listened attentively are now returning to John McCain.” tried to straddle the experience and change arguments . "Edwards contrasted himself with his Democratic rivals, saying that he alone had the kind of experience to fight the special interests that have become the target of his campaign-closing speech, as well as his final advertisements. ‘You better send someone in there who is ready for the battle,’ he said.”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN : NBC's Lauren Appelbaum notes Joe Biden's closing argument in Iowa yesterday. Ultimately, he made the case for the Democratic Party to choose a candidate who can stand his own against Republican attacks. "You know the routine. You know what's coming," he said. "Close your eyes. Who do you want in the ring taking on Rudy Giuliani or John McCain or Mitt Romney or Huckabee? Who do you think can stand toe to toe with them? It may not be me, but that's what you have to decide. Who is the person that is going to be able to stand there and turn it, turn it on them?" (Interestingly, doesn't Biden's closing argument sound like Clinton's?)
His campaign unveiled a new TV ad that begins with a shot of the Oval Office, hitting on the same theme about who is ready.
The Delaware senator also continues to pick up endorsements from Iowa lawmakers. Yesterday, State Reps. Dennis Cohoon of Burlington and Eric Palmer of Oskaloosa became the 15th and 16th Iowa State legislators to back Biden, according to his campaign.
CLINTON : The Washington Post says that Clinton has changed her campaign theme a few times these last few months. "Clinton has shifted from theme to theme in the final weeks of a race that has remained consistently up for grabs, but she seemed to settle back on her original experience argument after two months of attempting to show voters a softer side. Yesterday she criticized Obama's character and questioned whether other Democratic contenders are equipped to beat the eventual Republican nominee. Bill Clinton, introducing his wife, promised that ‘if she is the Democratic nominee, I believe she will win the election, and win by a handsome margin.’”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI : While Giuliani's first TV ads didn't really mention 9/11, this new one -- which will air nationally on cable as well as on broadcast in Florida and New Hampshire -- doesn't shy away from 9/11 mentions. "In Giuliani's ad ... he recalls reading ‘The Greatest Generation’ shortly before the Sept. 11 attacks, and said he equates the courage and heroism of firefighters and others after those attacks with the bravery of the World War II generation.”
“With images from Sept. 11 on the screen, Giuliani warns terrorists not to underestimate America's resolve. ‘Our democracy means we disagree with each other,’ he says, ‘but when you come and try and take away from us our freedom, when you try and come here and kill our people, we're one and we're going to stand up to you and we're going to prevail.’”
More: "Giuliani's new ad comes as his candidacy faces growing questions about a strategy that has played down Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina in favor of a major push to win Florida's Jan. 29 primary and then sweep many of the big states that hold contests on Feb. 5. Giuliani spent Wednesday in Florida, where he met with veterans at an American Legion post in Largo.”
CONTINUED >>
This news will obviously take some of the campaign stories off the front-page headlines: “Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Thursday in a suicide bombing that also killed at least 20 others at a campaign rally,” the AP reports.
Per NBC’s Bob Windrem, this was the third assassination attempt on Bhutto. There have also been two assassination attempts on President Musharraf and one on Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz.
Per NBC’s John Yang, don't expect to see President Bush today, the first full day of this 69th visit as president to his 1,583-acre Prairie Chapel Ranch outside Crawford, TX. Deputy White House Press Secretary Scott Stanzel will brief the traveling press corps at their home-away-from-home, the gym of the Crawford Middle School. It's billed as a gaggle, the less-formal off-camera, on-the-record session usually held mornings at the White House. But it's the only session today and the first five minutes are on-camera. So it's a combination gaggle and briefing--what Cox Newspapers White House correspondent Ken Herman calls a "griefing."
From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones Clinton began her final push before the Jan. 3 caucuses at an event in southeastern Iowa with her husband, daughter and former Iowa Gov. and First Lady Tom and Christie Vilsack , by stressing the problems the next president will face the day they are inaugurated.
"That person will go to the Oval office and on the desk in the Oval office will be a stack of problems," she said. "We know that the next president will face a daunting agenda."
It was a theme that emerged in the days before Christmas, as the New York senator, her husband and surrogates like Gen. Wesley Clark and childhood friends sought to combine the change and experience arguments while also showing Clinton's softer side.
Bill Clinton , who was set to split off and stump in several towns on his wife's behalf, introduced her by saying he wouldn't want her in this race if he didn't think she could win and arguing that it was important to vote for Hillary because this was a time of opportunity in the world, but also a time of great uncertainty, with rampant economic inequality at home and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to deal with abroad.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike MERRIMACK -- While most of his rivals are traversing Iowa today, or in Giuliani’s case, Florida, Romney has the media following Republicans in New Hampshire almost all to himself -- which he may just need given recent hard-hitting critiques of candidacy both in the New Hampshire Union Leader and the Concord Monitor.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani said his doctor will release a statement today, hoping to put an end to questions about his health that have been dogging him since he was hospitalized a week ago.
Speaking at a Veterans of Foreign Wars post, the former New York City mayor continued to say he was in good health, and added that his doctor would release more information today. But he refused to name his doctor ahead of the statement or say what caused the headaches he experienced while campaigning in Missouri last week.
“I’m feeling great. I feel terrific,” he said. “I feel fully recovered. I took a couple of days to be, you know, 100%, although I campaigned all weekend and I campaigned pretty actively. I feel terrific and the doctor will put out a statement, very shortly, I think, and explain that every one of the tests came back normal.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann Clinton's success on Jan. 3rd? Her campaign is sending out caucus education mailers with an almost stern message: "Just agreeing to support Hillary isn't good enough."
In a final push to turn out voters, especially the first-time caucus-goers that both Obama and Clinton are depending on, Team Hillary is making sure that anyone with a mailbox is saving the date. The fliers demystify the process, calling it "a great chance to catch up with your neighbors."
"How hard is that?" asks one of the mailers.
"Just agreeing to support Hillary isn't good enough," scolds another. "If you want Hillary Clinton as our next president, you have to participate in the Iowa caucus. It's as simple as that."
"If just one in three supporters fails to show up at the caucus, we won't be successful in Iowa," it goes on to warn. "Coming to the caucus is that important!"
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton is up with another ad in Iowa and New Hampshire and makes the case for her presidency, a closing argument of sorts. There are no words spoken in the ad, except for her approval statement.
But with orchestral music in the background, words appear on the screen. In all, the ad reads: "A nation at war, troubles at home [over a "foreclosure" sign], America at a crossroads [over the national debt "scoreboard"] demands a leader with a steady hand [over a presidential profile of Hillary Clinton], who will weather the storms [over a home torn apart by Hurricane Katrina], solve our problems [over a picture of a baby being tended to by a doctor], rebuild our middle class [ironworker], and renew our greatness [boy looking out over the horizon, the sun piercing through an American flag]. Hillary Clinton.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann Obama 's health care plan, Hillary -backers AFSCME aren't backing down. They're out with a new iteration in a negative mail campaign that slams Obama's "Band-Aid solution" and gripes that "15 million Americans can't afford to wait for Obama's actions to catch up to his promises."
Like the previous mailer, this one cites a quote from Edwards (whose team has disavowed the attack). The eye-catching new addition? A take-a-number machine spitting out a card printed with the number 15,000,000.
"There are 15 million reasons why Barack Obama's health care plan is not up to the job," reads the text.
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan Obama will give a speech in Des Moines tomorrow that will provide a closing argument for why a junior senator from Illinois, with two years of national experience should leapfrog over more experienced members of his own party to win the Democratic nomination and become president of the United States.
Today in Mason City, voters got a preview of that argument as Obama added new language and a rationale for why he should be president to his stump speech.
*** UPDATE *** The Clinton campaign responds.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann OSCEOLA, IOWA -- Southern charmer Mike Huckabee , in the midst of a push to show his steely resolve in the face of direct attacks from one-time frontrunner Mitt Romney , polishes up his gun and sets off into the snowy fields of Iowa for an old-fashioned pheasant hunt.
It's just too easy.
On a trip rich with metaphorical potential, Huckabee donned a blaze-orange vest and ventured out into an icy Iowa countryside, with trusty bird-dog "Dude" and about 15 shivering members of the press corps in tow. It turns out that the governor, who says that he's been a hunter since childhood, is a pretty decent shot. He shot one of the three pheasants knocked down by the hunting party (the other two reportedly met their bird-maker at the hands of Huckabee Campaign Manager Chip Saltsman.)
The imagery of a gun-totin' politico wasn't lost on journalists, who peppered Huckabee with joking prompts for analogies between his feathered victims and his Republican competitors. The jolly gov, who's known for his sense of humor, was more than happy to comply.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Lauren Appelbaum Edwards ad paid for by a 527 being advised by the candidate’s former campaign manager.
The ad begins by laying out stark problems: “The price of dependence on foreign oil. Health care in crisis. Government run by corporate lobbyists. Isn't it time someone had a plan to take them on?”
It then breaks down what is described as Edwards’ plan to combat these issues.
The group, Alliance for a New America, is funded mostly by local SEIUs, a group which has endorsed Edwards. Mundy Ketowitz Media got the bulk of the money ($750,000) with music and postproduction outsourced, according to FEC documents. In who's given to the group, it's mostly SEIU and one contribution from UNITE HERE. Here’s how the money breaks down: Ohio SEIU ($122,000), California SEIU ($400,000), local SEIU in Los Angeles ($100,000), local SEIU in Oregon ($60,000), local SEIU in St. Paul ($18,000) and Minneapolis ($36,000), Chicago UNITE HERE board ($100,000), NAGE COPE ($50,000), which is the political education arm of the National Association of Government Employees, which is also SEIU. COPE stands for Committee on Public Education.
CONTINUE READING TO VIEW THE AD AND SCRIPT
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro McCain in a statistical dead heat with Romney and renewed campaigning in Iowa, McCain is up with a new ad in South Carolina. The ad, called "Never Surrender," again highlights his days as a POW, appeals to patriotism and highlights McCain's maverick attitude.
The ad is similar to "Not Easy," which began running in New Hampshire last week. It again works in the "One Man" theme. "One man sacrificed...," "One man opposed" the Iraq strategy and more.
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Edwards outlines why voters should choose him. He says he'll "stand up for people whose voices are ignored," be "honest," keep promises and "work every day to restore the American Dream."
Per the campaign, the ad coincides with Edwards going door to door in Nashua, N.H., today.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
You're kinda Iowa if: You can identify the Des Moines restaurant with the best tap list (El Bait Shop).
You're kinda Iowa if: You think it's trite and obnoxious when people pronounce it "Dess Moynes" Bill Richardson's mispronunciations of "Maquoketa."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Eight days out : With the caucuses just eight days away, almost every candidate -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Huckabee, McCain, Obama, Richardson, and Thompson, as well as Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama -- is in Iowa today. The exceptions are Edwards and Romney (who are in New Hampshire) and Giuliani (who is in Florida). Just asking: Does anyone go negative on TV today? And how much negative direct mail will be buried in those post-Christmas circulars?
*** Playing the experience card : Hillary Clinton channels John Kerry in a way (or at least hopes to) with the launch of her final tour designed to appeal to Iowans on the idea that it's now time to pick a president. Officially, it's called “Big Challenges, Real Solutions -- Time To Pick A President” tour. Per a memo the campaign just released, “America faces a war abroad and a troubled economy at home -- critical moments that demand a President who is tested, ready to lead on Day 1 and offers real solutions to the big challenges we face. And that person is Hillary Clinton.” But on the very day that Clinton highlights her experience comes a front-page New York Times piece, which isn't that flattering about that experience, especially relating to foreign policy. From the piece: “Mrs. Clinton did not hold a security clearance. She did not attend National Security Council meetings. She was not given a copy of the president’s daily intelligence briefing. She did not assert herself on the crises in Somalia, Haiti and Rwanda."
*** Dueling tours : By the way, “Big Challenges, Real Solutions -- Time To Pick A President” is a long name for a tour. Clinton's campaign, in fact, has a habit of naming a lot of its Iowa tours. If she goes on to lose Iowa, many will look back at the series of different tour names and use that as an example of Clinton struggling to find the right message. Meanwhile, Obama is sticking to the change message with his "Stand for Change" tour, which also begins today. The two tours are very much cooperative with big media by making the final eight-day contrast between Clinton and Obama become experience vs. change. But remember, it's not that simple… There's another change candidate in the field who has every chance of winning Iowa, and that's John Edwards. In fact, what does the weight of two change messages vs. one experience message do to Clinton?
*** Look who else is in Iowa today… : Also in Iowa today is McCain, who is apparently making a real push in the state as he spends the next three days in Iowa with a very full schedule. Will he stay in Iowa through January 3 -- or will he pop back into New Hampshire? With the media looking to write those McCain-is-back stories, a third-place finish in Iowa could be a big Mo boost for the Arizona senator. Would McCain finishing third in Iowa hurt Romney when we get to New Hampshire? Romney may be trying to stop Huckabee in Iowa, and clearly a Mitt victory over Huck would be a big boost. But losing to Huckabee wouldn't be nearly as harmful in New Hampshire as finishing just ahead of McCain in Iowa. Can any other Republican slingshot as well out of Iowa right now than McCain, thanks to expectations and the length of time it appears that Huckabee's been in the lead? The burden of expectations...
*** … And look who isn’t: Giuliani’s schedule this week shows how he hopes to have the race start for him in Florida. He spends 2 1/2 days in the Sunshine State, a day and half in Iowa, and he then ends the week in New Hampshire. Where to next? Does he spend New Year's in Iowa or New Hampshire? Does he spend any of the final week in a state other than those two? Giuliani's Iowa stops this week will be scrutinized closely for crowd size and enthusiasm.
Countdown to Iowa: 8 days
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Per the Des Moines Register's Beaumont , "Implicit in the closing argument Clinton plans to make across southern Iowa today is that her chief rivals for the 2008 nomination are inexperienced for the challenges she says await the next president." Clinton also tried "to dampen expectations" that she would win Iowa.
“‘I want people to imagine what is going to be waiting on the desk in the Oval Office ... the whole range of pressing issues that are going to bear down on the next president, plus everything we can't predict,’ Clinton said in the interview. ‘No one brings the mix of qualifications and experience, the vision and plan, that I do with a proven, tested record of being able to produce results.’”
The Los Angeles Times' Z. Barabak and Mehta curtain-raises the final 8 days of Iowa. "The closeness of the state's caucus contests increases the import of these final days -- and any verbal misstep, breakthrough TV ads or crystallizing moment on the campaign trail -- in what already have been exceptionally fluid races."
CONTINUED >>
Over the weekend, Romney fired off at McCain while in New Hampshire, "repeatedly accusing the Arizona senator of failing 'Reagan 101' by voting twice against Bush administration tax cuts. Romney also said McCain's past support for allowing illegal immigrants to stay in the United States and work toward legal status amounted to amnesty. 'You know, right now Sen. McCain and I are both battling for your support and your vote. He's a good man, but we have differing views on this,' Romney told a capacity crowd at the Peterborough Town House.
"McCain senior adviser Mark Salter shot back: 'Welcome to Mitt Romney's bizarro world, in which everyone is guilty of his sins. He didn't support Ronald Reagan. He didn't support President Bush's tax cuts... New Hampshire is onto you, Mitt.'"
BIDEN : The candidate “has released his plans to improve the education system in the country… His ideas to better education start with expanding the focus on more than just test scores, starting education earlier, paying educators more and reducing class size, ideas fueled by statistics showing U.S. students lag behind students in other countries.” CLINTON : The New York Times looks Clinton's eight years as first lady. The lead about sums up the piece: "As first lady, Hillary Rodham Clinton jaw-boned the authoritarian president of Uzbekistan to leave his car and shake hands with people. She argued with the Czech prime minister about democracy. She cajoled Roman Catholic and Protestant women to talk to one another in Northern Ireland. She traveled to 79 countries in total, little of it leisure; one meeting with mutilated Rwandan refugees so unsettled her that she threw up afterward.”
“But during those two terms in the White House, Mrs. Clinton did not hold a security clearance. She did not attend National Security Council meetings. She was not given a copy of the president’s daily intelligence briefing. She did not assert herself on the crises in Somalia, Haiti and Rwanda."
The Wall Street Journal runs an interesting profile of manager Patti Solis Doyle. "Doyle's source of power is the bond she has with the candidate. She was the first person Mrs. Clinton hired in 1991, during Bill Clinton's presidential run. When he won, she became the first lady's scheduler and a steady presence during crises, from Whitewater to the Monica Lewinsky scandal." (And don't miss the anecdote suggesting that Penn and Grunwald haven't been on the same message page…)
CONTINUED >>
The Boston Globe has a smart piece about how some of the more well known conservative groups aren't having the sway they've had in the past. Rather, "The fair tax supporters and home-schooling advocates, with their strong and visible preference for Huckabee, are filling the void among grass-roots activists. Huckabee's rise in the polls, activists and analysts say, is a sign that new, decentralized groups are learning to exploit the disarray among the party's old-guard institutions." GIULIANI : USA Today runs a pretty tough profile of Giuliani. "But Giuliani's shifting on gun control (which he says should be left to the states) and on immigration (he stresses the need for secure borders instead of immigration's benefits) has left even some of his supporters confused about his political philosophy. 'I don't know what his core beliefs are because he's shed most of them,' said Doug Muzzio, a public affairs professor at Baruch College in New York."
The New York Daily News calls Giuliani's Florida (and beyond) strategy "a big if," adding "many state polls show Giuliani sinking faster than a Florida sunset as conservatives appear to coalesce around Romney or Huckabee, at least in early-voting states. But Giuliani can afford to lose some ground, given the size of his still-hefty leads in large, later-voting states with significant delegate counts."
CONTINUED >>
Bloomberg's Al Hunt does a great "odds" column on who is likely to be the next president. He makes Clinton a 3-1 favorite with Obama a 7-2 favorite (for you know gamblers out there, that's 3.5-1); He makes Romney the favorite on the GOP side. By the way, don't miss this great factoid from Al: "In eight of the past 10 elections, the party that settled its nomination first won the presidency in November."
The
New York Daily News says that, for the Democratic candidates, Iraq has virtually disappeared as an issue on the campaign trail. “When asked, voters in the early presidential states all say the war in Iraq is important to them. But when they quiz candidates, Iraq seldom comes up these days - even for Hillary Clinton, who was grilled relentlessly on her vote to authorize the war when she launched her campaign.”
President Bush continues his year-end vacation today, NBC’s John Yang reports, flying by helicopter from Camp David in Maryland to Andrews Air Force Base outside Washington for his Air Force One flight to Texas, where he'll ring in the new year at his Prairie Chapel Ranch in the gently rolling hills outside Crawford.
Meanwhile, McClatchy profiles Democratic Rep. Robert Wexler, who is trying to impeach Cheney. Wexler has even begun a Web-based petition campaign.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum On Meet the Press this morning, Paul called the American Civil War a mistake, criticized Ronald Reagan as a "failure," and refused to rule out a third party run.
Paul also criticized Reagan for not reducing the government to a "constitutional size." But Paul also is using Reagan's picture in his brochure. "He ran on a good program," Paul explained. "His idea was limited government ... and a strong national defense."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama this morning questioned whether Edwards really had no influence in preventing a 527 group from advertising on his behalf.
Speaking with reporters, Obama said that if Edwards wanted to, he could use his influence to stop his former campaign manager -- who is now running a 527 backed by the SEIU -- from running pro-Edwards advertisements in Iowa. Starting Wednesday the 26th, Alliance for a New America, will begin running $769,000 in pro-Edwards television advertising across Iowa.
"That this is somebody who worked for John Edwards -- for who knows how many years. He's a good friend and colleague of Edwards who's now running a 527 that's running ads on behalf of John Edwards. You're telling me that he has no influence on him that's just not true," Obama said.
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From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Mark Murray today picks up nods from the Nashua Telegraph (NH) and Sioux City Journal (IA). Romney also gets the backing from the Sioux City Journal , and Clinton McCain
Breaking down the Iowa papers, the Quad-City Times serves much of the typically more Democratic eastern half of Iowa, and the Sioux City Journal is the largest daily in more conservative Western Iowa.
The Quad-City Times was, notably, the venue where Obama and Clinton traded their very first set of direct hits during the summer. (Ah, the good ol days, huh?). In twin interviews with the Times' political reporter back in July, Obama derided Clinton's refusal to meet with rogue leaders, and Clinton accused Obama of being "naïve" and "irresponsible." The Q-C's endorsement doesn't reference the skirmish, but it does highlight Clinton's experience and passion for problem solving. On Obama, the board simply writes, " Not yet."
As for the Sioux City Journal's endorsement for Obama, it's great news for him, and bad news for John Edwards, who has been largely left out of the Iowa newspaper nod race. A big part of Obama's strategy in peeling voters off from the Edwards count is converting supporters in small rural precincts in the west, where many analysts think the race ultimately will be decided. In its endorsement, the paper highlights Obama's foresight, his forward-looking vision, and his impatience for "the 'that's-just-the-way-it-is' mentality of Washington, D.C."
From NBC's Mark Murray Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll has McCain locked in a statistical tie with Romney in the Granite State. According to the poll, Romney is at 28% among likely primary voters, McCain is at 25%, and Giuliani is at 14%. Twenty-three percent said they were undecided. A month ago, the poll's results were Romney 32%, Giuliani 21%, and McCain 17%. Obama at 30% and Clinton at 28%, followed by Edwards at 14%. Twenty percent said they were undecided. A month ago, it was Clinton 35%, Obama 21%, and Edwards at 15%.
The poll was conducted from Dec. 16-20, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.9%.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama was serenaded at a town hall in Winterset, Iowa yesterday, but it wasn't with Christmas carols.
Jerry Triplet, 73, took the microphone to ask a question about the rationale for building a $550 million embassy in Baghdad. But before Obama answered, Triplet said he had a song to sing for Obama "Of course!" Obama replied. "Don't we all want to hear a song -- is it a Christmas song? How long is it?"
That was all the permission Triplett needed. In a rich baritone, Triplett burst into "God Bless Barack Obama," retooling the lyrics from the Irving Berlin classic to cater to the senator from Illinois.
Wildly gesticulating while he sang Triplett warbled the lyrics:God Bless Barack Obama
And so on...
Obama roared with laughter during the refrain, and burst into applause along with the rest of the audience when Triplett finished with a grand bow. "Wow! That's what I'm talkin' about!" Obama shouted. "I just want you to know he is not a plant!" The senator added that Triplett's song would be the "highlight" of his day.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy SIOUX CITY, IA – The public's expectations for the success of Mike Huckabee's campaign have soared almost as high as his Iowa poll numbers. And now the campaign's newest advisor, Ed Rollins, is predicting an Iowa win. Rollins told CBS recently that he expects to emerge from the early caucus victorious, but the candidate seemed surprised by the confidence after a rally at North High School here on Saturday.
"We've never said we had to win Iowa," Huckabee said. "We certainly said we needed to be in one of the three seats out of here – either first class, business or coach. Now that Ed is willing to upgrade us to first class automatically I better call Ed and ask him…does he have the frequent flyer miles to make sure we get there?
The former-governor said that he is "playing to win" in Iowa, but if he doesn't, he feels that he can still be competitive in other early voting states like South Carolina, Michigan, Florida, Georgia and Texas. But you can't accuse Huckabee of downplaying the importance of a potential victory in the Iowa caucuses.
"If we do win in Iowa it is a true upset of the classic form," Huckabee said. "To be outspent like this and outmanned, to win here is huge and it gives us a great momentum going into the next several contests."
Also on the candidate's agenda on Saturday – Is Rush Limbaugh picking a fight with Mike Huckabee? Some members of the media seem to think so. Rush had some harsh words for the newest GOP presidential frontrunner on his show last week, supposedly in response to a Huckabee aide calling Rush an "entertainer."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones WEST DES MOINES, Iowa -- Bill Clinton has been talking about change a lot on the campaign trail these days, arguing that Hillary Clinton has been an agent of positive change for 35 years. Is he now changing his wife’s message in the final days before the crucial Iowa caucuses?
In two speeches here Saturday, the former president summed up his wife’s plans for her presidency by talking about three major goals. For months on the stump now, Hillary Clinton has been spelling out her four big goals for America: restoring the country’s leadership in the world, rebuilding a strong and prosperous middle class, reforming the government and reclaiming the future for America’s children, but Bill didn’t mention government reform in his speeches today and he seemed to spend the most time on economic issues and health care.
“I like Hillary’s vision,” Bill Clinton told an audience at a West Des Moines school. “She says that our definition of moving toward a more perfect union requires us to do three things. Number 1, to rebuild the middle class dream in America and give more poor people a chance to work their way into it. We don’t want to be a country of shrinking opportunity; we want to be a country of expanding opportunity for everyone who will take advantage of it.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Chuck Todd
The
Concord Monitor writes
an absolutely blistering editorial to be published tomorrow entitled,
“Romney Should Not Be The Next President.” The paper does, however,
have a rather small circulation (only about 20,000 -- a medium-sized
paper is about 40,000 circulation), a liberal bent and the editorial
seems to be made for a direct mail piece or TV spot. Here are some
excerpts:
“If you were building a Republican presidential candidate from a kit,
imagine what pieces you might use: an athletic build, ramrod posture,
Reaganesque hair, a charismatic speaking style and a crisp dark suit.
You'd add a beautiful wife and family, a wildly successful business
career and just enough executive government experience. You'd pour in
some old GOP bromides - spending cuts and lower taxes - plus some new
positions for 2008: anti-immigrant rhetoric and a focus on faith.
“Add it all up and you get Mitt Romney, a disquieting figure who sure
looks like the next president and most surely must be stopped.” …
“If you followed only his tenure as governor of Massachusetts, you
might imagine Romney as a pragmatic moderate with liberal positions on
numerous social issues and an ability to work well with Democrats. If
you followed only his campaign for president, you'd swear he was a
red-meat conservative, pandering to the religious right, whatever the
cost. Pay attention to both, and you're left to wonder if there's
anything at all at his core.”
*** UPDATE *** The Romney campaign responds, calling the Monitor's editorial board "liberal on many issues, so it is not surprising...." CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller CORALVILLE, Iowa – In the day’s second media availability,
Edwards again took questions on his opinion of 527s.
Asked whether he would call on the 527 run by his former
campaign manager, Nick Baldick, to quit running ads on his behalf and
disclose who his donors are, Edwards said, “I do.”
“I do not support 527s,” Edwards expounded. “They're part of the law
and I don't have any direct control over it because the law requires
that I stay out of it. I would prefer that all the 527s -- not just
this one -- that all the 527s stay out of Iowa, but I have no legal
authority over that.”
But his campaign tried to couch this response as much more definitive in an e-mailed statement, entitled: "Edwards: Stop these ads." "Today, after an event in Coralville, Iowa, Senator John Edwards called on 527 groups to stop running ads," the e-mail begins.
“I
do not support 527 groups," Edwards says in the statement. "They are part of the law, but let me be
clear: I am asking this group and others not to run the ads. I would
encourage all the 527s to stay out of the political process.”
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli MILFORD, N.H. --
Clinton today said it was “silly” of
Obama to ask why top foreign policy officials from her husband’s administration were now supporting him, and said the campaign shouldn’t be based on lists.
Clinton, after shaking some hands and posing for pictures with patrons of the River House Café, stopped to take questions from reporters and was asked to respond to Obama’s claims of greater support from Clinton administration figures.
“Obviously we demonstrated that that wasn’t accurate," Clinton said, alluding to a list produced by the campaign last night, which
First Read reported on earlier . "But really that’s not the point. You can have lists of people who are advising you but what matters is who’s sitting behind the desk in the Oval Office, and who’s ready to be president on Day One.”
Obama had asked rhetorically why “the national security advisor, the secretary of the navy for Bill Clinton, the assistant secretary of state for Bill Clinton” had endorsed him. “I just think that it’s kind of a silly question,” Clinton responded today. “I mean, honestly it’s a silly question. We have hundreds of people’s support. … This is not a campaign between lists of advisers. This is a campaign between real people with experience and qualifications to be president on Day One.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan At a stop at Smoky Row Coffee Shop in Oskaloosa,
Obama sat down to eat some pumpkin pie with four local women and ended up having to explain how he was not a Muslim.
An older woman seated at the table asked Obama to explain his Muslim heritage, to which the candidate replied, "This is something that keeps on being misreported, so I’m glad you asked me."
Obama was referring to an e-mail chain accusing him of being a Muslim with an intent to undermine the United States. Early this year, false reports also circulated that he had attended a madrassa as a child. Obama explained his connection to Islam in this way:
"My father was from Kenya,” he said, “and a lot of people in his village were Muslim. He didn’t practice Islam. Truth is he wasn’t very religious. He met my mother. My mother was a Christian from Kansas, and they married and then divorced. I was raised by my mother. So, I’ve always been a Christian. The only connection I’ve had to Islam is that my grandfather on my father’s side came from that country. But I’ve never practiced Islam."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
HOPKINTON, N.H. --
Giuliani told reporters that he did not think he was
having a heart attack when he was flying home to New York City
Wednesday, and said he did not know why his campaign staffers told
reporters he was suffering from “flu-like symptoms.”
“You’re going to have to ask them,” he said outside a town hall meeting. “I’m telling you what actually happened.”
Asked
about whether he thought he was having a heart attack at the time, he
said, “No, I knew it was a very bad headache. I knew exactly what it
was.” He added that the cabin pressure from the plane, which is smaller
than the one he usually uses, amplified the headache he had been
experiencing throughout the day.
A senior campaign aide
said Giuliani did not have chest pains or shortness of breath, but was
complaining that it was the worst headache he ever had, likening it to
having a golf ball in his head or a root canal.
*** UPDATE *** The Giuliani campaign tries to explain "flu-like symptoms" statement.CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller
LISBON, Iowa -- In his first event of the day in eastern Iowa,
Edwards responded to an attack from
Obama . This morning in Oskaloosa, Iowa, Obama criticized Edwards on
the advertising a 527 group run by Edwards’ former campaign manager is
running in the first caucus state.
“You've got these
outside groups that are helping out candidates," Obama said, "and it's a way of
getting around the campaign finance laws. So [Edwards] said he's
opposed to them -- we found out today that there is an outside group
spending $750,000, just bought three quarters of a million dollars
worth of television time, and the individual who's running the group
used to be John Edwards’ campaign manager. So you can’t say yesterday you don’t believe in 'em, and
today, you have three-quarters of a million dollars being spent for you.”
Nick Baldick, who managed Edwards’ 2004 campaign and advised
his current campaign until April 2007, now runs the Service Employees
International Union’s 527 branch. Many state chapters of the SEIU have
endorsed Edwards, including the Iowa chapter.
*** UPDATE *** Obama campaign responds: “It's not change when you decry the influence of money in politics but
then stay silent when your former campaign manager exploits the biggest
loophole in the law to benefit the Edwards' campaign with millions of
dollars in ads from an unregulated political fund whose donors are
undisclosed. John Edwards can and should call on his former advisor to
stop this effort."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan OSCALOOSA, Iowa -- Hillary
Clinton is not the only candidate Barack Obama is ready to get into the
ring with as the Iowa caucuses draw near.
Obama slammed John
Edwards at a town hall today, saying he "talks the talk" but doesn't
"walk the walk" when it comes to the influence of special interest
groups.
"Both of us agree that we have to take on the special
interests and lobbyists. Both of us agree that they have too much
influence in Washington. But I'd like to think in decisions when we
actually had the chance to do something about it, I did something and
John didn't. I don't just talk the talk, I walk the walk."
Obama
criticized Edwards for saying that he doesn't approve of 527s, while at
the same time not disavowing a group, Alliance for a New America, run
by long-time Edwards advisor and 2004 campaign manager, Nick Baldick.
In the current presidential cycle, Baldick served as a consultant to
Edwards through the second quarter of 2007.
*** UPDATE *** EDWARDS RESPONDS: "The truth is I am the only candidate in this race who has never
taken a dime of PAC or Washington lobbyist money -- ever. And, it's why
I support public financing of federal elections. As for
outside groups, unfortunately, you can't control them.... " CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli MANCHESTER -- Attention President Clinton: If you haven't bought your wife a Christmas present yet, she could use a good pair of boots.
After an event in Manchester today, some reporters were invited on board Hillary Clinton's campaign bus, where the New York senator was chatting with two supporters, Barbara Marzelli and AnnMarie Morris, as well as Clinton's mother, Dorothy Rodham, and daughter, Chelsea. Sipping a cup of hot tea, Clinton talked to the The group shared stories about last-minute shopping, and proper winter footware.
"I don't get to shop all that often, so I love going to little stores," Clinton said. "I like going to Main Streets. … I like to go into stores that are kind of unique and different." Yesterday in Concord, Chelsea and her grandmother actually did some shopping there, she said.
Morse said she likes shopping at L.L. Bean, and had done some online shopping this week. That caught Clinton's attention, after some trouble on the campaign trail in snowy New Hampshire last week.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan In a populist appeal to Iowans, Barack Obama criticizes unfair trade deals in an new ad "Enough."
The ad, which will begin running in Iowa today, shows Obama speaking to a town hall size crowd criticizing tax breaks for companies that take jobs overseas.
"If the plant moves to China, and you've been working there for 20, 30 years and suddenly you have the rug pulled out from ya…" Obama says in the ad. "And you don't have healthcare, and you don't have a pension, you're on your own."
He goes on to say, "We gotta stop giving tax breaks to companies that are moving overseas and give those tax breaks to companies that are investing right here in Iowa."
The ad, which could as easily have said 'I'm John Edwards and I approve this message,'" appears to be part of a larger push on the economy by Obama, who has been hitting an economic message on the stump recently, showcasing more stories from working Americans, and holding economic roundtables both in Iowa and New Hampshire.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy ON THE ROAD, IA – So what happened to Tom Tancredo's Iowa supporters after his 'big announcement' earlier this week?
We know that the former-candidate threw his support behind Mitt Romney, but on Friday Tancredo's Iowa state chairman Bill Salier announced that he was supporting Fred Thompson. And while riding through Muscatine on the Huckabus this week, Mike Huckabee was confronted by a very well informed former Tancredo staffer who argued with the Iowa frontrunner over the issue of immigration.
Deb Miller described herself as "looking" for a candidate after her old boss dropped out of the race, and she came to the afternoon rally at the Rendez Vous Banquet Hall equipped with a stack of information compiled from Newsmax and ImmigrationWatchdog.com to help her with her search.
Reading from the papers in her lap, Miller asked Huckabee about a passage from his book that described enforcing current immigration laws as "shear folly" and about three incidents from his time governor that showed questionable strength on combating illegal immigration.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anuburajan and Mike Memoli WASHINGTON, Iowa -- In a battle for who can claim a bigger slice of the Clinton foreign policy legacy, Barack Obama said at a town hall Friday afternoon that he had more members of the Clinton Administration supporting him than Senator Hillary Clinton at a town hall in Washington, Iowa.
It was a charge that the Clinton campaign quickly disputed.
"In fact you could argue that there are a bunch of ex-Clintonites supporting me," Obama said. "There are more foreign policy experts from the Clinton Administration supporting me than Senator Clinton. That should raise some pretty interesting questions."
Obama said that the reason so many former Clinton foreign policy advisors were supporting him was because he exercised better judgment on foreign policy. Citing his positions on talking with one's enemies, his opposition to the Iraq War and the Kyl-Lieberman ammendment and his criticism of Gen. Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan as an unwilling ally on the war on terror, he argued that his thinking was out of step with a conventional Washington approach but his positions had been proven right over time.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike ROCHESTER, N.H. – On the same night that Mitt Romney returned to New Hampshire and re-inserted John McCain into his stump speech, an anti-Romney student turned up to dog him on flip-flopping.
Soon after broaching the economy and lauding President Bush for imposing tax cuts amid disagreement, he said, “You know, one of my friends is Sen. McCain. He voted against the Bush tax cuts.” And then he added the contrast, “I think the Bush tax cuts were a great thing for our country, I support them, I want to make them permanent and I want to add to them.”
Buzz about a McCain comeback has been brewing for weeks now, and a USA Today/Gallup poll of New Hampshire Republican voters that came out yesterday showed McCain’s support level coming within single digits of Romney’s lead at 34 percent to 27 percent.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli CONCORD, N.H. -- Hillary Clinton picked a snow-covered apple orchard Friday to deliver a message of bipartisanship as she kicks off a two-day New Hampshire bus tour. Joined once again on the campaign trail by mother Dorothy Rodham and daughter Chelsea, Clinton promised as president to do what she said the Bush administration hasn’t – work across party lines.
Clinton introduced testimony from two Republicans, Steve Walter of Londonderry and Jeff Volk, a New York native who was in Manhattan on 9/11 and in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. His voice trembling, he called the government response to Katrina the “most incompetence” he’d ever seen, and said Clinton’s was the only office who responded to pleas for help. “Somebody called, and kept on calling to make sure we were okay,” he said. He also called her “one of the most caring, compassionate, kind, informed people I met in my life.”
Clinton said the problems facing America aren’t Democratic or Republican problems, but American problems. And she said it was time America got back to the “solutions business.” Then, the senator who a month ago in Des Moines said it was time to “Turn up the heat” on Republicans touted her work with the party, including people like Lindsay Graham, Bill Frist and even James Inhofe. That’s a bipartisan approach she said she’ll take into the White House.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller Edwards introduced the Lakey family, who made famous in his book Four Trials. In 1993, five-year-old Valerie Lakey was disemboweled by a pool drain, and Edwards represented her -- and eventually a dozen more children who had suffered similarly -- in court, leading to a $25 million settlement that covers her medical expenses for the rest of her life.
“I know John because he saved my daughter’s life,” said Sandy Lakey, Valerie’s mother, in introducing the former senator. She told the audience that a lawsuit was the furthest thing from her mind following the accident, but that Edwards came alongside them and fought on their behalf. (*** Just to clarify: The Lakeys sought out Edwards' services.***)
“We went into that courtroom, and we battled and we fought. And the Lakeys can tell you the details of that battle,” Edwards said. “It was a difficult, difficult time for them.”
Edwards was here as part of his three-day “Fighting for America’s Voice” tour through Iowa. Also traveling with him is James Lowe, whom Edwards often references in his call for universal health care. Lowe was born with a cleft palate and therefore couldn’t speak. As Edwards tells it, Lowe couldn’t get it repaired because he didn’t have health insurance, so a surgeon generously did it for free when Lowe was 50 years old. That was when Lowe got his voice back, Edwards explained in stops yesterday.
From NBC’s Ken Strickland Pat Leahy and ranking Republican Arlen Specter .
They write, "Our request expressly includes copies, remnants, fragments and extant recordings of the tapes reportedly destroyed of waterboarding, wherever recorded and wherever currently held. If those recordings are in the possession, custody or control of the United States or can be obtained by the United States, we request them on behalf of the Committee."
While DOJ has previously refused to share information with the committee, citing conflicts with the department’s own inquiry, the leaders say parallel investigations have occurred in the past and is "pursuant to our oversight and legislative responsibilities."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama from landing here this morning to start a three day bus tour before Christmas.
A disappointed crowd of 580 people, "ohhh'ed" when the Bill Gluba, the Mayor of Davenport and an Obama precinct captain told them that Obama couldn't land.
Heavy fog across the state caused airlines to cancel all flights into Iowa. The intrepid press corps following Obama, managed to brave a storm in New Hampshire to get on a flight to Moline, only to find their connection in Minneapolis cancelled. A group of reporters, sans their luggage, climbed onto a coach bus at 10:00 pm last night and drove seven hours to land in the damp and foggy Davenport at 4:00 am.
The senator appears to be following the press's lead this time, rather than the other way around. His motorcade was enroute from Chicago; the drive is about five hours.
But try as the candidates may, it doesn't sound like they're going to out-fly or out-drive the weather this weekend. Heavy snow (between 8 to 12 inches) is predicted for tomorrow, along with gusty winds.
Let's hope that despite the weather that we can all still say to our families, "I'll be home for Christmas."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan and Carrie Dann Obama mailers paid for by Hillary -backing union AFSCME. As reported by NBC/NJ on Wednesday, the direct mail piece going out in Iowa slams Obama's health-care plan as "yet another Band-Aid solution" that leaves "15 million Americans uninsured." That's the argument made by the Clinton campaign, which has criticized Obama's plan for its lack of a universal mandate requiring coverage for all Americans.
But in a conference call sponsored by the Obama campaign, two AFSCME members -- Henry Beyer, the executive director of Illinois' AFSCME chapter, and Carter Woodruff, a former state treasurer of AFSCME in Iowa -- criticized the mailer on the grounds that AFSCME has had a long-held position against mandates for healthcare.
Beyer said he was "dismayed" to see the direct mail piece. "We've always opposed individual mandates. We were very concerned about the Massachusetts plan," he said referencing the health-care plan passed under Gov. Romney in Massachusetts, which required state residents to purchase health insurance.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani will resume campaigning this evening, attending a fundraiser in Rochester, NY, campaign aides said.
*** UPDATE ***
And to all of his supporters, Giuliani said his message is "to win" and wishes them "Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Huckabee elaborated on his response to a man from Marshalltown, IA, who had expressed concern that only Christians would be attended to by a Huckabee White House. "It's not like I'm stepping out of the pulpit last Sunday and running for president today," Huckabee said. "I don't think anybody's going to find that, you know, I'm some intolerant bigot when it comes to religion. If anything, it's the opposite -- because in my view of faith, it's only faith if it's voluntary ... and to try to force faith on somebody would, to me, violate the heart and soul of it as to what it should be."
Yet when he was pressed on whether he would continue certain practices he began in the Arkansas state house, such as a Christian Heritage Week or hanging the Ten Commandments in his office, Huckabee said, "[I] don't know why I wouldn't."
He pointed out that the Christian Heritage Week was celebrated in 37 states, but he was the only person who received attention for it, "which to me showed that there was some level of almost a different sort of treatment that I would get on the religious questions than anyone else."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller Edwards made nice with Clinton . Following a spat on Wednesday -- when Clinton boasted about her husband's work on poverty and Edwards reiterated that poverty is the cause of his life -- the North Carolina senator applauded his opponent's new bill to raise the minimum wage.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Will we hear from Rudy today? Our guess is yes. The campaign won't resume a normal schedule until Saturday, but given that yesterday's various delays in releasing Giuliani from the hospital only added to the questions those of us in the media have about the mayor's condition, don't be surprised if we do hear from him -- perhaps via a radio interview or even on the TV. We're guessing the Giulianis were very surprised by the media's intense interest in his condition all. It's one of the things that can surprise first-time presidential candidates. But doctor visits or hospital stays that can be seen as routine for civilians can become GIANT stories overnight for presidential candidates. Just ask Bill Bradley, whose heart scare in the heat of the primary with Gore may have been a bigger issue than the campaign ever realized.
*** Doing Hillary’s dirty work? As we’ve noted over the past week, Clinton has stopped engaging Obama and instead has shown her softer side (in testimonials and TV ads). But that doesn’t mean the anti-Obama jabs from the Clinton campaign have stopped. Yesterday, three Clinton surrogates -- Reps. Stephanie Tubbs Jones, Anthony Weiner, and Joe Crowley -- held a conference call with reporters whacking Obama over his “present” votes while serving in the Illinois legislature. (Just asking: Has any other campaign used its congressional supporters to attack a fellow colleague?) And the pro-Clinton AFSCME, using Edwards’ name, is hitting Obama over the issue of health care. Indeed, the Obama campaign emailed reporters that, per FEC numbers, pro-Clinton groups (like AFSCME, AFT, and Emily’s List) have spent $2.1 million in independent expenditures, while pro-Edwards groups have spent $1.3 million.
*** Pushing back: McCain's decision to address the Drudge rumor so publicly -- as his campaign did in a statement yesterday -- is probably a risk. Does he dare the New York Times to run the story (about allegedly doing favors for a lobbyist) now? Every night at approximately 10:00 pm ET, the campaign will no doubt begin refreshing the Times’ Web site to see if the piece is running that night. Perhaps the piece runs on the 24th or 25th? McCain's lawyer Bob Bennett spoke to the Washington Post's Kurtz and equated the potential firestorm with McCain's troubles in 2000 in South Carolina. Will McCain's aggressive pushback eventually mitigate the damage the story does if it runs and if the allegations are proven true? Dealings with a lobbyist could be deadly to McCain's straight-talking image.
*** Romney's memory (or lack thereof): The Romney campaign ought to be glad that between Rudy and Drudge, many in the press corps were distracted from what wasn't a smooth answer to the question of whether Mitt saw his father march with MLK. It turns out his father never did… The danger in this story for Romney is that it could add to this notion that he'll say anything to get elected. It's something his opponents are pushing hard, and Romney can't allow himself to get caught in a trap like this MLK deal if he doesn't want a few press clips that decide to delve into instances in which Romney has overstated something. Just ask Al Gore how this storyline can get out of control in a hurry.
*** Throwing some chin music: At the debates, Richardson has certainly channeled his inner Rodney King (“Can’t we all just get along?”). Which is why this statement he released last night -- entitled “Richardson calls Hillary on Iraq flip-flop” -- raised our eyebrows. "Senator Clinton's statement that we could 'certainly get all the troops out within a year' is a stunning flip-flop from what she has been saying all along,” he said. “She consistently has called for leaving troops in Iraq to fight al-Qaeda, train Iraqis, and protect U.S. assets. Has that suddenly been abandoned?” More: “It is clear that she is responding directly to my latest ad and my statements that she repeatedly has called for leaving thousands of troops in Iraq indefinitely. Rather than defending her position, apparently she simply has changed it." Whoa. Is this a last-ditch effort by Richardson to become THE anti-war candidate? Is Richardson signaling to supporters that Clinton should NOT be their second choice?
*** On the trail: Biden, Dodd, Edwards, Huckabee, Obama, Richardson, Thompson, and Bill Clinton all are in Iowa. Hillary Clinton, Paul, and Romney all campaign in New Hampshire. And elsewhere, McCain stumps in Louisiana and raises money in Phoenix, while Hunter campaigns in Michigan.
*** And a final note: The morning edition of First Read will not publish on Monday, December 24 and Tuesday, December 25, although we’ll be updating the site occasionally. The morning edition will be back Wednesday -- for the real sprint to Iowa and beyond. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
Countdown to Iowa: 13 days
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USA Today/Gallup’s inaugural New Hampshire poll has Clinton and Obama not just statistically even -- but actually even at 32%. Edwards trails with 18%. On the GOP side, the poll has Romney just leading McCain by single digits, 34-27%. This is the first REAL evidence in a poll to back up the media's two-week attempt to find the McCain comeback story. Now, this poll helps justify that coverage.
Giuliani, Huckabee and McCain are locked in a three-way tie in a national FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll. The numbers: Giuliani 21%, Huckabee and McCain 19%, Romney 11%, Thompson 10%. NYT tries -- and fails -- to get more details on Giuliani's condition.
The New York Daily News caught up with him at his NYC condo late last night, where he told reporters: "Thank you all for waiting. We're gonna go straight to bed now and sleep late tomorrow. We'll probably take the day off, check our schedule and then continue campaigning." The paper adds that he spoke in a slightly "raspy voice."
More: “Privately, advisers said the former mayor was simply rundown after a grueling few weeks of travel that culminated with a particularly long day Wednesday, when plane trouble forced Giuliani to squeeze an unplanned, two-hour drive into his day. A nagging bug got progressively worse, and he felt so ill aloft that he decided to seek medical help right away instead of enduring another two-hour plane ride back to New York. Once at the hospital, aides said, it was inevitable that a high-profile patient like Giuliani was going to get a full workup.”
CONTINUED >>
A national FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Clinton with solid a 49%-20% lead over Obama. CLINTON: The candidate lobbed this her rivals’ way. Clinton “said choosing a candidate simply because they are more likable - a thinly veiled reference to Obama and Edwards - would repeat the 2000 mistake of electing George W. Bush, a then-Texas governor with a regular guy reputation and little foreign policy chops.”
NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli was with Bill Clinton last night in New Hampshire, where Clinton -- again -- tried to beat back this notion that Obama's run in '08 is similar to Bill's in '92. “There’s a slight oversimplification there,” Clinton said. “I also gave you a real plan for what I would do. And when I came here I was 46, but I was the most senior governor in America, I had worked hard on the very economic issues that I said I would work on as president for years and years and years.”
And, Clinton said, he thought he won then in part because people thought he “was more tuned in” to the day’s challenges. “There’s no question that Hillary is not out of touch,” he continued. “She has spent a lifetime making these changes.”
CONTINUED >>
“Presidential candidates are benefiting -- and sometimes being attacked -- by independent groups that are only now beginning to make their presence known in the early contest states of Iowa and New Hampshire,” the
AP writes. “These groups can be more targeted, more negative and can coordinate their activities in ways that candidate campaigns cannot. At the same time, the contenders themselves are operating on parallel tracks. Republican candidates in particular are stuffing mailboxes with negative messages about their rivals while airing cheery holiday greetings on television.”
The Los Angeles Times writes that “Bush's own second-term domestic agenda is a shambles: His ambitions to overhaul Social Security and immigration law are dead; plans to update his signature education program have foundered; few other initiatives are waiting in the wings. But on a host of foreign and domestic policy issues, backed by a remarkably disciplined Republican Party in the House and Senate, Bush has been able to confound Democrats. It has been a source of great frustration to the party that came to power with sky-high expectations and the belief it had a mandate for change. And it is a vivid reminder of how much clout even a weakened president can have -- especially one as single-minded as Bush.”
The New York Times adds, “Defying expectations and surprising even themselves, Republicans were able to slow and sometimes halt Democratic momentum by refusing to break with President Bush and his war strategy, no matter how unpopular, and by resisting social initiatives, no matter how appealing… Republicans say their unity was inspired by what they saw as Democratic overreaching on policy, bolstered by a fundamental belief that a Congressionally forced withdrawal from Iraq would be disastrous, and stiffened by attacks on vulnerable members from outside advocacy groups.”
The Senate wrapped up its business yesterday, but the New York Times also writes that Democrats will convene pro forma sessions to prevent Bush from making recess appointments. “[T[here is one in particular that [Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid] wants to stop: that of Steven G. Bradbury, nominated to be assistant attorney general, who signed secret Justice Department memorandums authorizing harsh interrogation methods that Mr. Reid considers to be torture.”
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Romney says that it depends on what the definition of "saw" is.
A defensive Romney was peppered with questions today on exactly what he meant when he said -- most recently on Meet the Press -- that he "saw" his father march with Martin Luther King Jr . Recent articles have indicated that his father, the late Michigan Gov. George Romney , didn't march with the civil-rights leader.
Admitting that he didn't see the march with his own eyes, he said, "I 'saw' him in the figurative sense."
"The reference of seeing my father lead in civil rights," he said, "and seeing my father march with Martin Luther King is in the sense of this figurative awareness of and recognition of his leadership."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama singled out 527s for criticism at a roundtable for independent voters here Thursday afternoon.
Pointing to a report from yesterday that showed that 527s would spend more than both political parties in this election, he said, "Right now in Iowa you have candidates who are having millions of dollars spent on their behalf uh by other groups."
Obama himself is the target of such an independent expenditure -- with the Association of Federal State and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) criticizing his health-care plan in a direct mail piece in Iowa. But the group, which has endorsed Clinton , used a quote from Edwards criticizing Obama on his plan.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Huckabee addressed the issue of Arkansas' minimum sentencing guidelines for crimes associated with methamphetamines, which has been the subject of Romney's recent television criticisms.
At an event in Marshalltown earlier today, Huckabee called Romney's recent ad "dishonest," and fought back by saying that only maximum sentencing guidelines for meth related crimes were reduced, "which meant that you would have opportunities for -- if you had good behavior you wouldn't serve 70 [years] you would serve [the same] as all other crimes were."
"It reduced the mandatory sentencing, but here's what [Romney] didn't tell you that Newsweek does," Huckabee said, citing a fact check of his opponent's latest ad done in Newsweek. "The sentencing for meth dealers in my state is more than twice as harsh as they ever were in his state. You didn't hear that part did you?"
Speaking to reporters after his rally, Huckabee was a bit more pointed with his response: "[Romney] accused me of being soft on crime. I'm going to let him defend why his laws weren't as tough as mine."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani left a local hospital here after spending most of the day being treated for a severe headache and other “flu-like symptoms,” but it remains unclear how his medical scare will affect his future campaign schedule.
Campaign aides said all tests were done as a precautionary measure and were negative, with campaign communications director Katie Levinson adding that Giuliani received a “clean bill of health.”
The candidate this evening is once again en route to New York City, where he will receive a follow-up examination from his doctors there, Mrs. Giuliani said.
The campaign provided virtually no information about Giuliani’s condition throughout the day, and the timeline for new information fluctuated. At one point, a press conference was scheduled to provide new information, but at the appointed time, a hospital spokeswoman came downstairs to say it was cancelled.
Giuliani left the hospital around 4:50 pm ET, waving to reporters and saying he felt fine. He shook hands with hospital staffers and told the reporters awaiting his departure that he appreciated the hospital’s efforts.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumHillary Clinton's warm and fuzzy side, while allowing her to take a subtle -- yet obvious -- stab at Obama and Edwards .
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton's surrogates in Iowa praised her foreign policy experience today in Iowa, three other Democratic supporters -- Reps. Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio and Anthony Weiner and Joe Crowley of New York -- held a conference call with reporters, questioning Obama's leadership and record for voting "present" numerous times while in the Illinois state Senate.
"The president of the United States needs to take a tough stand on tough issues -- and not say, 'I'm here, but I'm not going to take a position,'" said Tubbs Jones, referring to today's New York Times report that Obama voted "present" nearly 130 times as a state legislator on issues ranging from juvenile crime to abortion.
Weiner chimed in, "He took ... the easy way out on a lot of controversial votes," adding, "It shows, I think, a lack of leadership."
And Crowley cited other votes that Obama has skipped while serving in the US Senate, like one condemning MoveOn.org and another designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. (Obama was campaigning when the Senate voted on that Iran measure.)
It was the second time in the last 10 days when Clinton's congressional surrogates held a conference call to criticize their fellow colleague Obama; the other time was regarding a questionnaire Obama filled out in 1996 that stated his liberal positions on issues like health care, abortion, and capital punishment.
The New York Times article mentioned that voting "present" is not unusual in the Illinois legislature, and that some of Obama's votes "were in line with instructions from Democratic leaders or because he objected to provisions in bills that he might otherwise support."
In the Q&A session with reporters, Tubbs Jones replied that she understood that some Obama's "present" votes were part of a Democratic legislative strategy. "But not all of them," she added.
Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo dropped out of the GOP presidential race today in Des Moines, IA. And he endorsed Mitt Romney .
"For the same reason that I launched the campaign, I must now end it," Tancredo said.
More to come on this story...
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli PORTSMOUTH, N.H. -- For a politician, five out of 10 ain’t bad.
On a snowy night on New Hampshire’s seacoast, Richardson tried his hand at a New England tradition -- candlepin bowling. He laced up a pair of blue and black size 11 ½ bowling shoes and strutted out to the Bowl-A-Rama, gladhanding the patrons on league night along the way.
According to the International Candlepin Bowling Association, the sport requires “minimal physical strength while demanding great timing, dexterity and patience.” Unlike traditional 10-pin bowling, candlepin bowling utilizes a smaller ball and taller, narrower pins.
Stepping up to Lane 8, Richardson took some quick tips from the locals, because, in his words, “I do the real bowling.” He picked up a Red Sox-logo ball, strode up to the foul line, and rolled. Three pins came down. “Is that pretty pathetic or what?” the New Mexico governor said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton and several of her supporters from military and diplomatic circles used the first stop on the last day of her Iowa blitz to talk about the importance of nominating a candidate who has foreign policy experience. She was joined by Gen. Wesley Clark , former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Richard Holbrooke , former Army and VA Secretary Togo West , and Gen. Robert Gard .
Her campaign said she would be joined by other members of the military and foreign policy establishment at campaign stops throughout the day.
The senator set forth an optimistic view of what she’d do around the world, recapping some of what she laid out in an article in Foreign Affairs several weeks ago. "We need to restore America’s leadership with a new beginning, a new commitment to building the world we want, rather than just defending against the world we fear. We need a strong and aggressive foreign policy that stresses cooperation with other countries and reflects our American values,” Clinton told the crowd gathered in the theater of Grundy Center High School here, saying fear shouldn’t be the defining message of an American president.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
As mentioned last night and earlier today,
NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann reported on a flier by the pro-
Clinton labor union AFSCME that hits
Obama on his health-care plan. The catch, however, is that the flier appears disguised as an
Edwards attack -- since he is the only candidate mentioned in it criticizing Obama.
Now the Edwards campaign weighs in on the flier. Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, the Edwards campaign's Iowa state director, says in a statement: “There have been a lot of misleading tactics and tricks in the last few weeks, but we've just never seen anything like this before. Either they are trying to trick people, or they've realized that on health care, John Edwards is the candidate who speaks honestly about what it really costs and what will be required to have truly universal coverage. He has led the debate on health care with the strongest, boldest plan that covers everyone and is paid for by repealing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy."
She continues, "It's fine to have an honest debate about policy, but Iowans deserve better than planted questions and campaign fliers designed to fool them.”
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign sent First Read past congressional testimony from AFSCME head Gerry McEntee criticizing Massachusetts' health-care plan, which -- drum roll, please -- mandates health insurance.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Up for grabs : While the big headlines from the latest national NBC/WSJ poll are Giuliani’s 13-point decline (from 33% last month to 20% now) and Huck’s nine-point gain (from 8% to 17%), the real story to us is just how up for grabs the GOP field is right now. “I think there’s, at this point, no national [Republican] front-runner,” says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart. “We have literally four or five candidates, all of whom has a chance to be the nominee.” In the poll, Giuliani and Romney are tied at 20%, Huckabee is at 17%, McCain at 14%, and Thompson at 11%. Call it a five-way tie for second with none of the above on top. The last team we saw this kind of open field was, well, four years ago -- on the Democratic side. In the NBC/WSJ poll right before the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Dean was at 24%, Clark at 19%, Lieberman at 12%, Gephardt at 11%, and Kerry (the eventual winner) at 7%.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the latest NBC/WSJ poll, where Rudy Giuliani's lead is plummeting and Hillary Clinton is facing high negatives. *** As goes Iraq, so goes Rudy? One of the reasons for Giuliani’s decline is that he’s not seen as likeable to voters as he once was. Back in March, he had a 58%-14% fav/unfav rating. Now it’s 37%-37%. But, as we’ve asked before, is the focus from Iraq and terrorism to the economy and health care also dragging him down? A month ago, Iraq was cited as the highest priority for the federal government to address. In the new poll, it’s still the top issue, but the number saying that has dropped 10 points -- with health care and the economy now almost as important. In addition, of the top six issues on voters' minds, four are domestic and just two are international -- and those four domestic issues have all increased in importance this last month (health care/jobs/energy/immigration), while the two international issues have declined (Iraq/terrorism). What’s more, 56% believe there will be an economic recession in the next 12 months. According to Hart, this doesn’t help the GOP. “From my point of view, the Republicans are jumping from the pot to the frying pan. To move from Iraq to a struggling economy is not necessarily good news for the Republican Party.”
*** Mitt’s speech worked; does Obama now need to give one? Despite once leading both Iowa and New Hampshire and spending millions in the process, Romney had never popped in the national polls -- until now. His 20% is a nine-point increase since November. The reason for his movement, of course, has to be the highly publicized speech on faith he gave earlier this month. A full 60% of respondents in the survey could identify Romney's religion; all but 1% answered correctly. The question was open-ended and folks were not prompted with choices, making the 59% of folks answering correctly more remarkable. Was the purpose of that speech as much about raising his national profile as it was appealing to religious Republicans? And does Obama need to give a similar speech, especially if he becomes the Dem nominee? On a similar open-ended question, just 17% correctly identified Obama as being a Protestant (Church of Christ), 2% said he’s Catholic, 8% said he’s a Muslim, and a whopping 70% said they weren’t sure or refused to answer. Also, the poll measured various presidential peccadilloes, including whether past cocaine use is a problem: 51% said it shouldn’t disqualify someone from being president; 36% said it should. By the way, the biggest potential problem for a candidate would be IRS issues.
*** Good news, bad news for Hillary : Speaking of Obama, the Democratic field is virtually unchanged from a month ago: Clinton is at 45%, Obama is at 23%, and Edwards is at 13%; no other Democrat gets more than 4%. But this poll won’t erase concerns about Clinton’s negative ratings or her electability. Her fav/unfav is 42-44%, and Obama fares better than she does in hypothetical match-ups against Giuliani and Huckabee. Also, Obama's favorables are actually higher than Oprah's… go figure.
*** Rudy’s OK : Giuliani's medical scare last night is a reminder that the unexpected is what should be expected over the next few weeks. Word from the campaign is that doctors found nothing of concern and everything is going to be fine, although Giuliani still in hospital, NBC/NJ’s Matt Berger reports. There is no timeline for his departure, but Giuliani is supposed headed to New York City today; he was down today except for a planned fundraiser in New Jersey. Tomorrow, he was to return to New Hampshire. No word yet on whether those events will go on as planned.
*** So long, Tom? At 3:00 pm ET in Iowa today, Tancredo is supposed to give a “major announcement.” Multiple sources have told First Read that he’s expected to say that he’s withdrawing from the presidential race. As of now, it’s unclear whether he will endorse another candidate -- or who that candidate will be. If he does drop out, look for Tancredo to take credit for the fact that immigration is now the single most contentious issue in the GOP primary. As he said in a recent debate, everyone on stage was trying to "out-Tancredo Tancredo." But pro-immigration reform Simon Rosenberg (D) gives Tancredo a parting shot, pointing out that Tancredo has been getting just 1% of the vote in public polls.
*** On the trail : Not surprisingly, most everyone -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Huckabee, Romney, Thompson, and Michelle Obama -- are in Iowa. Obama, Paul, and Bill Clinton are in New Hampshire. Elsewhere, Giuliani raises money in New York; Hunter is in Michigan; and McCain stumps in Baton Rouge, LA.
Countdown to Iowa: 14 days
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The latest
Washington Post/ABC poll among Iowa Republicans narrows the race to just two people: Huckabee and Romney. Huck leads, 35-27%, with no other Republican garnering double digits. This begs the question: If the third place candidate ends up 20 points or more behind second place, does it make third place something worth winning?
Interestingly, the strength of Huckabee's support is among women. "The significant growth in Huckabee's support among women may be a sign that his style of social conservatism with a smile is resonating. Four in 10 women said the more they hear about the former Arkansas governor, the more they like him, more than double the proportion saying they like him less as they learn more."
USA Today looks at the plethora of outside groups doing paid media (be it mail, phones and TV) in Iowa. What we want to know is whether this extra clutter makes the campaigns' attempts to break through that much harder. NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann reports that AFSCME -- which is backing Clinton -- is running anti-Obama fliers in the Hawkeye State. But those fliers use Edwards’ name, not Clinton’s, to whack the Illinois senator.
And here is something to think about… Do you like to attack a candidate in the mail? Well, if so and if you want Iowans to read it, time is running out. There are 14 days to the caucuses, and four of those four are non-mail days. Add to that the holiday mail crush and the likelihood of guaranteeing mail pieces have an impact on Iowa voters moves up to well, today? That's right, today or tomorrow might be the last day a campaign has to get its negative mail pieces in the postal pipeline to get to Iowans in order to impact January 3.
A
CBS poll in South Carolina shows Obama and Clinton in a statistical dead heat. The numbers: Obama 35%, Clinton 34%, Edwards 13%.
BIDEN : The
Los Angeles Times has a nice story about an incredibly loyal Iowa foot soldier for Biden, who was with him in 1987 and has never wavered since.
CLINTON : The LA Times also looks at how Clinton is trying to define Obama. "Clinton doesn't tell Iowa voters that in his younger days, her chief rival for the Democratic nomination behaved badly. She never lays out incidents from Sen. Barack Obama's past that could be exploited in a general election contest; doing so might be considered an unseemly personal attack. But with the Iowa caucuses just two weeks away, she is sidling up to that fine line -- and, in some cases, her campaign surrogates are fleshing out what the candidate leaves unsaid."
Interestingly, Bob Kerrey sent a letter to Obama apologizing for over-bringing up the Muslim stuff. “Kerrey told The Associated Press in a telephone interview that he sent the letter on his own and had not spoken to Clinton or her campaign about the comments he made Sunday in Iowa. ‘What I found myself getting into in Iowa - and it was my own fault - it was the wrong moment to do it and it was insulting,’ Kerrey told the AP. ‘I meant no disrespect at all.’ Obama spokesman Bill Burton said the senator accepted Kerrey's apology, sent to the campaign in the mail and via e-mail.
Is there any New York Times byline the campaign fears more than Don Van Natta? Well, there's one today (although it probably goes down easier since the paper also front-pages the Obama "present" story today). "The New York Times has compiled the first comprehensive list of 97 donors who gave or pledged a total of $69 million for the Clinton presidential library in the final years of the Clinton administration. The examination found that while some $1 million contributors were longtime Clinton friends, others were seeking policy changes from the administration. Two pledged $1 million each while they or their companies were under investigation by the Justice Department.”
CONTINUED >>
The Wall Street Journal , NBC’s polling partner, writes about the fluidity of the GOP race, plus Giuliani’s marked poll decline from a month ago.
The CBS poll in South Carolina shows Huckabee with an eight-point lead there over Romney. The numbers: Huckabee 28%, Romney 20%, Giuliani 12%, McCain 11%, Thompson 10%.
GIULIANI : Per the AP , “Giuliani planned to head home to New York City on Thursday after spending the night in a St. Louis hospital getting checked out for flu-like symptoms, his campaign said. ‘After precautionary tests the doctors found nothing of concern at this time and Rudy will be going back to New York later today,’ communications director Katie Levinson said in a statement issued before dawn Thursday. ‘He is in high spirits and is grateful to the doctors and nurses who checked him out.’”
VIDEO: NBC/National Journal's Matthew Berger on GOP presidential candidate Rudy Giuliani being admitted to a Missouri hospital with flu-like symptoms. Quinnipiac poll has Giuliani's lead down to just seven points – 28%-21% over Huckabee. CONTINUED >>
Thanks for criticizing the process now that you aren't a part of it! Seriously, Karl Rove pens a
WSJ op-ed to criticize the nominating process. "Cutting the length of the primary season by more than half by jamming the contests together raises the likelihood of a bandwagon developing for the candidate who wins the first few contests. This would allow a candidate to sweep to victory in the subsequent contests that rapidly follow because all that voters will see is his (or her) face on the evening news and in the papers."
The
Des Moines Register puts all of the candidates’ holiday ads in one place.
In the NBC/WSJ poll, President Bush’ job-approval rating is 34%, up three points from last month. His approval rating on foreign policy is 32%, which is up five points from November. And his Iraq handling is 33%, up six points from a month ago.
Bush will hold a news conference in the press briefing room at 10:00 am ET, NBC’s John Yang reports. Per White House press secretary Dana Perino, Bush will give an opening statement of about eight minutes to wrap up the end of the legislative session for 2007. And he will say that next year is one in which all the elected leaders have a responsibility to continue working on behalf of the American people.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Neither Clinton nor Edwards are running any attack ads so close to the holiday season, opting for holiday appropriate ads instead. However, the two started a small tiff over the issue of poverty this afternoon.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy Fred Thompson's "The Clear Conservative Choice: Hands Down" bus tour rolled through the Iowa River Power restaurant here today for a radio town hall with KCJJ. Today's was the second in a series of daily radio town halls that the campaign is holding throughout this bus trip.
The most interesting exchange of the afternoon came when a Native American man in the back of the room asked Thompson a question about what the government could do to improve life on Iowa's Indian reservations.
"We've got rules and social safety nets for everybody in this country," Thompson said. "We've got special rules for Native Americans, and they have special rights in some respects, but where are we falling short? Where are we missing the mark in terms of what you think the federal government ought to be doing?"
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones Clinton spoke today about people’s perceptions of her and about the importance of a candidate’s relationship with the military.
"Some people think I am maybe too serious a person,” she told an audience packed into an opera house in this town near the Wisconsin border in northeastern Iowa. “Well, that’s not the way I am all the time. But I think this is a serious election, and I think we’ve got to get it right. We don’t have any margin for error, and I think the problems that we are going to inherit and the failures of the Bush administration are really serious.”
The Clinton campaign this week launched a series of video testimonials meant to humanize a candidate some voters worry is cold, politically calculating and remote. The senator is traveling the state with friends and constituents she has helped, who are sharing stories about her, as part of the final push to win over caucus-goers here.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger Giuliani is up with two new ads today, catching the holiday spirit that seems to be going around among presidential candidates.first ad , airing in New Hampshire, Giuliani lists his holiday wishes, including “peace with strength. Secure borders. A government that spends less than it takes in. Lower taxes for our businesses and families.” He also says he really hopes “that all of the presidential candidates can just get along,” eliciting a hearty laugh from Santa Claus. “Ho, ho, ho, ho,” Santa says, handing Giuliani a candy cane, “I was with you right up until that last one,” to which Giuliani responds, “Can’t have everything.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan Obama pushed his "Reclaiming America" plan, which provides a smorgasboard of tax cuts and credits to help reduce the costs facing middle-income families.
Obama met with "regular" Americans, struggling to pay their bills, pay for childcare, healthcare and save for the future. To emphasize just how real the crisis facing not just lower income but middle-income families is, the roundtable including a young professional couple, Peter and Jessica Ellis, who spoke passionately about finding affordable child care and saving for their children's future. Mrs. Ellis held her second child, a two-month-old boy, in her arms as she spoke.
But nothing silenced the room more than the story of Sandra Burt, an older woman from Concord who told a painful tale of trying to pay her medical bills. There was silence among those at the table, and even the press as she talked about selling her belongings and struggling to meet the payments for her medication which cost $2,900 a month. Affected by the donut hole in the prescription drug program, she and her husband struggled month by month to meet their payments even considering having him give up his part-time job so that they could qualify for more government assistance.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann A new direct mail piece from the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) accuses that: "For those without insurance, Barack Obama's band-aid solution is no change at all."
On the reverse side, the text of the mailer continues, arguing that Obama "claims his health care plan covers everyone, but his proposal does not match his words... Instead, Obama took the timid way out, offering yet another band-aid solution."
"Barack Obama's plan," it concludes, is just more of the same."
Here's the kicker, though: The piece quotes Edwards from a Sioux City Journal article in November saying that that "as many as 15 million Americans would be without coverage" under Obama's plan.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro Multiple sources tell First Read Tancredo will likely pull out of the race for the Republican nomination tomorrow. The campaign says the candidate will make a "major announcement" at 3:00 pm ET in Des Moines, Iowa. It's unclear if he will endorse a candidate tomorrow as well.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann Romney today continued to blast rival Huckabee for his comments on President Bush's "bunker mentality," as well as for his record on crime and taxes during his tenure as the governor of Arkansas.
Calling Huckabee's "bunker mentality" remarks a "significant error in insulting the president," Romney defended Bush's good faith in his early handing of the war. "That's not a proper characterization of the cause of our challenges," he said.
In addition to critiquing Huckabee on foreign policy (he said he's "not impressed" with the governor's take on relations with Iran, for example, which is he says is not acting to enrich uranium simply "because they have hurt feelings."), Romney also slammed Huckabee's record on sentence commutations and tax hikes. He predicted that Huckabee will lose support among Iowa conservatives as he is further scrutinized. As they look at his record, he said, "They're going to say this is not someone who they'll support for the nomination."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Presidential candidate Dennis
Kucinich’s youngest brother, Perry, was found dead at his home in Cleveland, the AP and
Cleveland Plain Dealer are reporting.
“Perry Kucinich, 52, was found face down by another brother, Larry, at about 9 a.m.,” said Powell Caesar, spokesman for the Cuyahoga County Corner’s office said, per the AP.
There are no signs of foul play, Caesar said.
CORRECTION: Per a campaign release, Perry Kucinich was 51.
From NBC’s Bethany Thomas
At Faneuil Hall in Boston,
Henry Kissinger told a crowd of
McCain supporters that he “doesn’t usually get involved in things like this,” but given today’s conflicts in the world, he couldn’t stay away from the political scene. (Kissinger endorsed McCain earlier in the year.) Kissinger said he first met McCain in 1972 at the White House after he was released as a POW and has been a fan ever since.
Kissinger described the current international struggle: “There’s never been a period in history where so many things were in movement at the same time.”
“Now we need to deal with the world that I’ve described to you and that requires leaders who have spent some time thinking about it,” Kissinger said. “The senator had five years in solitary, figuring out who he is and why he is serving his country. He has never had any other political motive….He has had a unique experience in his life and he has, sometimes to his short-term disadvantage, only asked one question, ‘What is best for America, but also what is best for freedom in the world.’
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
BEDFORD, N.H. --
Ron Paul says he has a problem. Others, no doubt, wish they were so lucky.
Paul began his remarks at a Politics and Eggs breakfast by saying he is constantly asked about his fundraising. Earlier in the campaign, he said, there would be occasional bursts of attention and donations, usually after debates. “Back then, a burst was $50,000,” he said. “But now, it’s sort of gotten out of control, and I don’t know what to do about it. I mean, the money just keeps coming in.”
He said there is something “significant going on,” and attributed it to the message, not the man. “It’s not about me, as much as it is about this message, and the need for it to be heard,” he said. “I’m especially excited about the young people willing to look at this and say, this is a grand idea, and this is what we need to do.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
Even though the Des Moines Register's endorsement is viewed by many as the Holy Grail of Iowa newspaper nods, there are a few other papers in the state trying to get into the action. The latest is the Iowa City Press Citizen, a daily in Iowa's biggest college town with a circulation of about 15,000. The P-C today announced its endorsements of
Obama and
Huckabee .
The paper's editorial board
writes that Obama "has what it takes to restore the nation's integrity" with his focus on hope, transparency, and unity." Notably, the board also critiques
Edwards for his "flights of populist rhetoric" that make his "good analysis sometimes too easy for critics to dismiss."
And it quotes Biden saying of the Republican nominee: "I hope to hell it's McCain . Because none of the rest of them knows anything about foreign policy."
The Press-Citizen also endorsed Huckabee, one of only two GOP candidates to meet with the editorial board in a city not known as a Republican stronghold. (The other was Ron Paul.)
Obama had this to say about the Arkansas governor when he was interviewed by the board: "The tone that he's taken -- that you can disagree without being disagreeable -- I find to be compatible with the approach I take to politics."
From NBC's Mark Murray Richardson really wants to focus on Iraq with just 15 days until Iowa? And that he believes the issue is what separates himself from his Dem rivals? Just check out the campaign's latest TV ad that it's airing in Iowa and New Hampshire. "Is there a difference between the Democrats on Iraq?" the narrator asks. "There’s a big difference. Bill Richardson’s the only major candidate with a plan, endorsed by military and diplomatic leaders, to remove all of our troops."
And here's the contrast: "Hillary Clinton , John Edwards, and Barack Obama have repeatedly said they’ll leave thousands of troops in Iraq indefinitely ... even beyond 2013."
From NBC's Mark Murray Tagg Romney , NBC/NJ's Erin McPike mentioned the anecdote about Romney searching for a missing 14-year-old girl. Well, the Romney campaign is now up with a TV ad in New Hampshire that discusses this story. The ad concludes with the father, who was a former Romney business partner, saying: "The man who helped save my daughter was Mitt Romney. Mitt's done a lot of things that people say are nearly impossible. But for me, the most important thing he’s ever done is to help save my daughter."
Meanwhile, as we alluded to in First Thoughts , the Giuliani campaign is going up with its own holiday TV ad in New Hampshire. In it, Guiliani says: “There are many things I wish for this holiday season. I wish for peace with strength. Secure borders. A government that spends less than it takes in. Lower taxes for our businesses and families. And I really hope, that all of the presidential candidates can just get along."
Then a Santa Claus interrupts: “Ho, ho, ho, ho. I was with you right up until that last one. Ho, ho, ho, ho, ho.”
Rudy replies, “Can’t have everything!"
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
MANCHESTER, NH -- When he was 16 years old,
Tagg Romney’s teenage pangs led to a rebellion of sorts against his father, who nonetheless sought to inculcate his eldest with some of the things he learned along the way from his business career.
So, as one of Tagg’s anecdotes goes, he was fishing off the coast of the Atlantic and lost his anchor, which was worth a measly $10. When he relayed the news to his multi-millionaire father, the venture capitalist told him to turn around and find it, leading Tagg to the retort, “Well, that’s the stupidest thing I’ve ever heard.”
Together, they headed back out to sea and recovered it within 45 minutes, and Tagg says the jaunt taught him three lessons. The first: “My dad is the cheapest human being alive.” But in politics, that ought to mean something to voters, because as Tagg put it, he exercised “incredible frugality” both in government and business and “hates wasting money.”
The second lesson was the generic, “With a little bit of ingenuity and a lot of hard work, you can solve even the toughest problems.” And the third: “He taught me not to give up on myself, but I didn’t learn that until I became a dad myself.”
The story was told yesterday to about a dozen engineers at the privately owned Optics1 plant here that specializes in surveillance systems and other defense equipment. In an interview afterwards, he explained, “I’m a character witness for my dad.” And he noted that he was there while his father stumps in South Carolina because part of the campaign’s strategy is to send a surrogate from the family when the candidate can’t be in New Hampshire in order to keep up a strong presence there.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro Polling aficionados beware: With a mere 15 days until the first contest, there are now so many pollsters surveying voters in Iowa and New Hampshire, it's hard to know what's right or wrong. In the last 12 hours, two Iowa polls showed two dramatically different results. One (Washington Post/ABC ) had Obama in first and another (Insider Advantage ) had him in third. Edwards was in third in one (Washington Post/ABC) and first in the other (Insider Advantage). What gives? Many things: turnout, the makeup of the electorate the pollster used, and the history of that pollster surveying the state. Our advice: Look at the trends of the pollsters who have surveyed the state for multiple cycles, and be careful of pollsters who haven't polled Iowa before. Speaking of polls, don't miss the latest CNN-WMUR poll showing Clinton back to having a double-digit lead after showing her up just one a week or so ago. What does that poll tell us? There's a chance that good pollsters get quirky results. Looking at that poll’s trend line, it appears the one-point poll was the outlier.
*** The holiday spirit: The weather outside may be frightful, but most of the messages on Iowa TVs appear to be remaining delightful -- with Obama joining Huckabee with a holiday spot (his daughter even says "Christmas"!). Giuliani apparently will be up with a holiday spot soon as well. But there is one candidate who isn't letting the holidays stop his negative messaging. Mitt Romney is staying aggressive against Huckabee. When asked whether he thought the voters would be turned off by negatives during the holidays, Romney said he thought voters would respect the importance of the election. We'll see... Let the grand holiday experiment begin...
*** What is Ted Kennedy thinking? The timing of the Huffington Post’s unearthing of Obama's Ted Kennedy criticism is intriguing. Is Kennedy's endorsement of one of the Big Three imminent? There are cases for him to go with any of them: He no doubt likes Edwards' populism, Obama's charisma, and he certainly respects a political dynasty. Of course, Kennedy may not endorse anyone until his closest friend in the race, Chris Dodd, either surges or drops out. And speaking of big endorsements, when is that John Kerry nod we keep hearing is ready to go going to come out? And if there are no endorsements today or tomorrow, does that mean we won't see any major endorsements pre-Iowa for fear that they won't get the attention of Iowa voters? Or will we see a slew of big announcements on the 27th and 28th going into the final weekend?
*** Bias alert! The Washington Post’s Howie Kurtz asks a question that will likely drive a lot of discussion today: Has the press been nicer to Obama than Clinton? Kurtz quotes a couple of journalists who certainly think so. While it’s pretty obvious that Clinton, her husband, and her campaign have received much more scrutiny in the past couple of months after the Philadelphia debate, couldn’t it also be argued that in the spring and summer -- when Clinton was soaring in the polls, when she was receiving little scrutiny on the shift in her Iraq views, and when the media praised her debate performances -- the press focused squarely on Obama (his experience, Rezko, Michelle Obama’s comments, donations from state lobbyists, D-Punjab) and Edwards (the hedge fund, the haircut, his Chapel Hill home)? Also, don’t front-runners always get more scrutiny? After all, look at the attention Huckabee is now receiving. And just asking: Is it fair for a couple of reporters to speak for the entire press corps?
*** On the trail: On the Democratic side, Biden, Clinton, and Dodd spend their day campaigning in Iowa, while Edwards, Obama, and Richardson are in New Hampshire. On the GOP side, Giuliani stumps in the February 5 state of Missouri; Huckabee is in Iowa; Hunter is in Michigan; McCain appears in Boston with Henry Kissinger and James Woolsey before heading to New Hampshire; and Romney and Thompson campaign in Iowa. Also, Michelle Obama and Ann Romney are in Iowa.
Countdown to Iowa: 15 days
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From the new Washington Post/ABC poll , which shows Obama leading Clinton and Edwards, 33%-29%-20%: "More of Obama's backers said they are certain to participate than did those who have gotten behind Clinton. But Clinton's supporters are the most committed and enthusiastic, and Edwards counts among his supporters experienced caucus attendees who are more likely to turn out again."
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on how the turnout could affect the Iowa caucus battle between Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. More: "Here the poll offers good news for each of the leading candidates. More than seven in 10 of Obama's supporters said they are certain to participate in the caucuses, compared with 59 percent of Clinton's backers. Clinton's supporters, however, are the most firmly behind her. Seventy percent said they will definitely caucus for her in two weeks, while Edwards's and Obama's supporters were more apt to say there is a good chance they might change their minds. Moreover, 59 percent of Clinton's backers said they are very enthusiastic about supporting her, compared with 49 percent."
Some other takeaways:CONTINUED >>
A new CNN/WMUR poll shows Clinton boosting her lead in New Hampshire. The numbers: Clinton 38%, Obama 26%, Edwards 14%, and Richardson 8%.
Clinton also gets some more good news with the endorsement from New Hampshire’s Foster’s Daily Democrat .
Push-polling allegations are circulating again in New Hampshire. "A push poll is a phone survey that asks voters who they support and then tries to change their minds with negative attacks. It's designed to seem like an actual poll, but the questions are slanted against certain candidates. It's illegal in New Hampshire, but some voters are reporting that they have received such calls that seemed to support Republican candidate Mike Huckabee."
Mike Huckabee’s camp distanced itself from alleged push polls, and asked the Secretary of State’s office to investigate.
BIDEN: In response to Robert Bork’s endorsement of Romney over the weekend, Biden -- who chaired the Senate Judiciary Committee that rejected Bork’s Supreme Court nomination -- issued this statement: “In my view, his endorsement of Gov. Romney is not something to tout; it’s a damning portent of the judicial philosophy Romney would promote as President. The last thing we need after eight years of the Bush Administration’s policies of eavesdropping on Americans, extra-legal renditions, and refusal to define waterboarding as torture, is another eight years of recklessness with our constitutional rights. If Gov. Romney is serious about leading the United States, I urge him to repudiate Judge Bork’s narrow view of the Constitution and acknowledge our privacy rights as individuals.”
CLINTON: The New York Times uses the Magic Johnson/Clintons event to note she's on a "warm-and-fuzzy" tour. "Now another major question faces the Clinton team in Iowa: Did it wait too long to try to humanize Hillary? The presidential caucuses are little more than two weeks away, Mrs. Clinton’s negative poll ratings remain high, and some of her advisers wanted to accentuate her personal side earlier."
The New York Daily News writes calls Bill Clinton a “Bill in a china shop. And Tuesday, he went on a minirampage, grabbing unflattering headlines and hogging the spotlight at an event with Magic Johnson while stumping for his wife in Des Moines.”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: Just 15 days before the caucuses, is there any byline a campaign dreads more than John Solomon of the Washington Post ? He's got a Giuliani-Kerik story today. Solomon and Mosk dig up an informant and former friend of Bernie Kerik's named Lawrence Ray -- who was someone who brought potential business opportunities to Kerik. Ray is now in prison and has turned on Kerik. Apparently, Ray was in contact with Giuliani a few times (via Kerik).
The Los Angeles Times checks in with the firefighters who are targeting Giuliani. “In an effort reminiscent of the bitter ‘Swift Boat’ campaign during the 2004 presidential race, a group of New York firefighters who lost sons in the Sept. 11 World Trade Center attacks is organizing a political committee to take on former Mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani in Republican primary states. A leader of the 9/11 Firefighters and Families group met Tuesday with union leaders and political consultants, readying plans to set up a tax-exempt committee that would fund appearances and a media drive against Giuliani.”
”Jim Riches, a New York deputy fire chief whose firefighter son was killed during the attack, said the group aimed to raise doubts about the central premise of Giuliani's presidential campaign -- his leadership role on Sept. 11. ‘If we have to follow him around all 2008 we'll do it,’ Riches said.”
CONTINUED >>
“After months of trying and failing to buck the president’s dual demands for lower spending and unrestrained funding for the Iraq War, the Senate on Tuesday passed a scaled-back, but still massive, catchall spending bill along with funding for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan,” Roll Call reports. “Barring any surprises, the move means Congress should be able to adjourn for the year on Wednesday. The measure moves to the House for concurrence on Wednesday, and President Bush is expected to sign the measure into law.”
The Washington Post : “Democrats had vowed only weeks ago to withhold any Iraq-specific money unless strict timelines for troop withdrawal were established, but they instead chose, on a 70 to 25 vote, to remove what appeared to be the final obstacle to sending the spending bill to the White House, where Bush has indicated he will sign it. Senators then passed the omnibus bill, 76 to 17. The House must still approve the revised spending bill, with the unrestricted war funds, but Democrats there concede the measure is likely to pass behind strong Republican support.”
The New York Times reports that at least four White House lawyers -- Alberto Gonzales, Harriet Miers, David Addington, and John B. Bellinger -- took part in discussions with the CIA between 2003 and 2005 over whether to destroy the videotapes showing the interrogations of two Al Qaeda operatives. “The accounts indicate that the involvement of White House officials in the discussions before the destruction of the tapes in November 2005 was more extensive than Bush administration officials have acknowledged.”
“It was previously reported that some administration officials had advised against destroying the tapes, but the emerging picture of White House involvement is more complex. In interviews, several administration and intelligence officials provided conflicting accounts as to whether anyone at the White House expressed support for the idea that the tapes should be destroyed.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Romney went after Huckabee once again Tuesday afternoon.
"I think Gov. Huckabee's rise in the polls justifies him getting a close look by the voters," he said in Columbia, S.C. "I think as they take a close look at his record on immigration, they'll see somebody who was too liberal on immigration. When they look at the 1,033 pardons and commutations he handed out, they'll see someone who is too liberal on crime. When they look also at his record of spending from $6 billion to $16 billion as governor, they'll say that's too liberal of a spending record and too liberal of a tax record."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Edwards leads among (977) likely voters 30-26-24 over Clinton and Obama . Edwards is also the clear second choice winner, 42-29-28 over Clinton and Obama. This is the first poll to show Edwards solely in the lead in Iowa since July.
Among highly likely caucus goers (of which there are 633), though, the three are deadlocked: Obama 27, Edwards 26, Clinton 24. Edwards again wins second choice, 42-31-27 over Clinton and Obama. The poll was conducted Dec. 16-17 and has a margin of error of 3% for the likely voters section and 4% for the highly likely voters section.
On the Republican side, among (833) likely voters, here are the numbers: Huckabee 28, Romney 25, Thompson 10, McCain 9, Paul 6, Giuliani 6. Among (418) highly likely voters, Romney leads with 28%, then Huckabee 25, Thompson 11, McCain 7, Paul 6, Giuliani 5, Tancredo 4.
A national Diageo/Hotline poll shows a narrowing between the Democrats and a tight race on the Republican side. The Dems: Clinton 35%, Obama 30, Edwards 14. The Republicans: Giuliani 21%, Huckabee 17, Romney 13, Thompson 11, McCain 10, Paul 7.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro Edwards , which shows him apologizing for his votes for the Iraq war and the bankruptcy legislation. The video concludes, "We need a president who will get it RIGHT the first time."
The email -- from a person identified as Neil Dooley, and with a Patrick McMurphy cc'ed in it -- says simply: "Have you seen this? It's pretty funny. Biden gettin' feisty? See you on the trail."
We contacted the Biden campaign, which denied being behind the video. And as the Politico's Ben Smith points out, Biden's folks "would be unlikely to raise the war and the bankruptcy bill as talking points."
What about the Obama campaign, since Obama has begun engaging Edwards on the trail? Obama spokesman Bill Burton tells First Read that they're not behind the video and have no idea who Dooley and McMurphy are.
First Read has emailed both Dooley and McMurphy, but neither has yet responded to the query. Neither also seems to have contributed to any political candidates, according to a Federal Election Commission search.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Obama today.Hillary Clinton , Burns said no. But, he added, “I am really disappointed just in the tone that the campaign has taken on their part. I think she’s getting some bad advice, and I’m sure she’ll clean up the act, but it was time for some real change.”
From NBC’s Bethany Thomas McCain was feisty before he headed off to Washington to vote in the Senate later this afternoon.
In a press conference after the speech, he endearingly told the press corps to “gather around, you little jerks.” There is definitely a noticeable difference between last week’s media entourage and this week’s. The events have had an influx of network camera crews and talent and satellite trucks are becoming a more normal sighting. Most of the national papers also have a presence.
Highlights:On the Senate Bill, how will you vote?
Elements that you are worried about? MCCAIN: “Overspending, and the fact they’ve added on a lot of pork barrel projects.”
How are you doing in NH with Independents?
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Huckabee continues to surge in Florida, according to a new poll conducted by Strategic Vision (R) to be released tomorrow. With a margin of error of +/- 5.5%,
Giuliani and Huckabee are in close competition for first place with 25% and 21%, respectively.
McCain comes in third with 15%, leaving
Romney in fourth with 13%.
Thompson has 10%,
Paul has 4%, and
Tancredo has 2%.
These results show a different story from the last Strategic Vision poll conducted in this state, Nov. 7 to 9. Huckabee was fifth in that poll with 9%, while Giuliani had 31%. McCain, Thompson and Romney were statistically tied for second with 13%, 13% and 12%, respectively.
On the Democratic side,
Clinton retains her large lead in Florida with 48%, up one point from the previous Strategic Vision poll.
Obama is up four points from last month to 31% and
Edwards is down two points to 6%. The margin of error for this poll is +/- 6%. The polls for both the Republican and Democratic candidates were conducted December 14 to 16.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Domenico Montanaro Clinton turns her focus back on health care in a new ad in New Hampshire. The 30-second spot "Guard" highlights Clinton's experience and her efforts to work across the aisle. Senator Lindsey Graham , a Republican, to change that," Clinton says. "Now every member of the Guard and Reserve has access to the health coverage they need. I've learned if you want to get things done, you have to know when to stand your ground, and when to find common ground."
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Magic Johnson , Hillary Clinton continues with an editorial meeting with the Ottumwa Courier, followed by a modified stump speech.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Hillary Clinton , who was out campaigning with her husband on Tuesday here in Iowa. Earvin "Magic" Johnson , joined the former First Couple on the trail at a Hy-Vee grocery store Tuesday morning in front of a mostly black crowd of about 40 people, many of whom were high school and junior high school basketball players, school principals an their relatives. Magic went around the room high-fiving the spectators, while the Clintons signed autographs. Obama , Magic cited her years of experience. "I love the Clintons, and I just know Sen. Clinton is the best candidate to move our country forward," he said during a brief, hastilty arranged press conference.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Christina Jamison
Some cameras followed him, and he started answering questions and soon there was a bit of a melee. There was an audible "s--t" from campaign spokesman Jay Carson as he dove in to get his voice recorder into the scrum and quickly stopped the former president from talking with the traditional, "Thank you, everybody."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
DES MOINES, IA --
Hillary and
Bill Clinton are set to appear together on the campaign trail in Iowa for the first time since Labor Day.
(*** Update *** The campaign now says the couple was here in Iowa together for the Brown & Black forum; it earlier told us it was Labor Day.)
Hillary begins the third day of her Iowa blitz with her husband and NBA legend
Magic Johnson at a grocery store here. She then campaigns in Ottumwa, IA and Donnellson, IA, before heading to a low-dollar reception in Chicago. Johnson and Bill stump in Davenport and Waterloo. President Clinton then continues on to Hampton and Fort Dodge.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
Back to the future : Both McCain and Edwards are trying very hard to recapture the magic of their previous campaigns. On TODAY this morning, Edwards talked up his Iowa momentum, telling NBC’s David Gregory that he’s “seen this before.” Meanwhile, McCain -- with his Joe Lieberman endorsement -- tried to recapture his Bill Bradley moment from the 2000 campaign in New Hampshire. There is anecdotal evidence that both do have some momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire (respectively), but is it the same as they experienced previously -- or are folks trying too hard to find comparisons? Then again, even if the comparisons are correct, those 2000 and 2004 campaigns didn’t end in victory, did they? Also, don’t miss the news that McCain is now going after Romney (via direct mail) in New Hampshire…
*** Obama vs. Edwards : How many people saw this coming? The big development yesterday was Obama's direct -- yet gentle (as the New York Times put it) -- hit on Edwards on his lack of taking on special interests when he served in the Senate. On TODAY, Edwards responded by citing his work to pass the Patients’ Bill or Rights. “I like Barack. Just on this case, he’s dead wrong.” It seems like someone's moving in the polls, huh? Does Obama risk hurting his own favorable ratings by hitting the guy whom Iowans view with enormous affection? In this odd game of three-dimensional caucus chess, is this about Obama worrying that 1) Edwards is doing well in second-choice polling, or 2) doing well in some of the more rural parts of the state -- places where Obama thinks he could do well if it weren't for Edwards.
*** When issues change : Just asking: Has anything had more of an effect on the fortunes of the respective fields than the shift in focus from key national security issues to domestic and character ones? When national security was Topic A in each primary, Clinton was becoming a stronger and stronger front-runner, and Giuliani was looking like a realistic nominee. Now?
*** I’m getting verklempft : Anyone else notice that both Romney and Clinton have been showing their emotions more on the campaign trail as of late? It certainly helps to show these candidates’ softer sides. Both candidates were running so-called "textbook" campaigns that were really working for most of the year. But as the campaign has shifted away from tactics and issues, both Romney and Clinton saw themselves get eclipsed in Iowa by the more personable candidates. But can either candidate sell emotion? It's never been either's strong suit. The danger for both is whether voters -- and the press -- see the emotion and softer sides as genuine or a new campaign tactic.
*** On the trail : Clinton campaigns in Iowa before heading to Chicago for a fundraiser; Dodd is also in the Hawkeye State, where he begins his “12 Days of Results” tour; Edwards travels to New Hampshire, where he hits three town halls with Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne; Giuliani raises money in New York City; Huckabee is in Texas, where he holds a media avail and raises money; Kucinich spends his day in New Hampshire; McCain also stumps in the Granite State; Obama holds a foreign policy forum in Des Moines, IA; Paul conducts interviews with the media; Richardson campaigns in both Iowa and New Hampshire; Romney is in South Carolina and Georgia; and Thompson stumps in Iowa. Also today, Bill Clinton and Magic Johnson campaign for Hillary Clinton throughout Iowa, and Ann Romney does the same for her husband in the Hawkeye State.
*** Another Super Tuesday! And for more on these events -- and much, much more -- tune into MSNBC’s all-day Super Tuesday political coverage.
Countdown to Iowa: 16 days
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In what may be music to Clinton's ears, there are signs Edwards and Obama are now starting to engage each other – though gently, as the
New York Times notes. "Speaking in northwest Iowa, Mr. Obama said, ‘Senator Edwards, who is a good guy, he’s been talking a lot about “I’m going to fight the lobbyists and the special interests in Washington.”’ But, Mr. Obama reminded his audience, it was he who led a drive for an ethics overhaul in the Senate this year."
Edwards, meanwhile, said he and Mr. Obama had ‘philosophical differences’ on opposition to special interests, noting that he had not relied on lobbyists and political action committees for donations. (Mr. Obama is not taking money from those sources in the presidential race, either, but did so in his 2004 run for the Senate.)"
Regarding Bill Clinton’s “roll the dice” comment about Obama, the AP's Ron Fournier looks at Bill in 1992 vs. Obama in 2008. "The fact that the former president is stealing a page from the same Republican playbook used against him 15 years ago underscores the threat Obama poses to the candidacy of Clinton's wife, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York."
CONTINUED >>
USA Today writes up the new USA Today/Gallup poll: “Clinton is backed by 45% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, up 6 percentage points from a poll taken two weeks earlier that showed her standing eroding… Obama is at 27%, up 3 points, and former North Carolina senator John Edwards is third at 15%.”
VIDEO: NBC's Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on who the latest polls show as being most capable of winning the presidency for their political party. “In hypothetical matchups for the general presidential election, Clinton and Obama each led Giuliani, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee and Romney, although at times narrowly. Obama was somewhat stronger, besting Giuliani by 6 points, Huckabee by 11 and Romney by 18. Clinton had an edge of 1 point over Giuliani, 9 points over Huckabee and 6 points over Romney.
BIDEN : The
Union Leader followed Biden around the state and profiled him. “Ask the average voter what he or she thinks of Biden, and you're likely to get one of two responses: ‘Who's he?’ or ‘He'd make a great secretary of state.’ The latter seems to irk Biden even more than the former. ‘I'm not going to be secretary of state. Don't say that,’ he pleaded with one voter at a recent campaign stop on the Seacoast. ‘In no administration would I accept the position of secretary of state.’”
In a phone call yesterday, NBC’s Ken Strickland notes, Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman -- and presidential candidate -- Joe Biden told Pakistan President Musharraf to "return Pakistan to the democratic path" by lifting restrictions on the press, restoring an independent judiciary, and ensuring free and fair January elections.
CONTINUED >>
USA Today on the new USA Today/Gallup poll: “Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani continues to lead, supported by 27% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents… Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee was second among Republicans, at 16%. Tied at 14% were Arizona Sen. John McCain, former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson and former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.”
GIULIANI : “The increased attention Rudy Giuliani has been giving to New Hampshire doesn't seem to be paying off .” More: “Pinning his hopes on big states that come later in the primary season, the former New York mayor is struggling to regain momentum after a series of setbacks. The next month could provide a severe test for his unorthodox approach to winning the GOP nomination.”
The New York Sun takes a look at the campaign's decision to cut its New Hampshire ad buy in half. "Giuliani's decision to largely abandon the early voting state of New Hampshire and concentrate his efforts on the Florida primary three weeks later reflects an uncomfortable truth for the former New York mayor: The more he campaigned in the Granite State and the more he spent on advertising there, the more his poll numbers dropped."
CONTINUED >>
So how much of a swing vote are New Hampshire’s independents? The Washington Post writes "Political scientists studying the state have noted in recent years that most of its undeclared voters favor one party, with a slight majority now leaning Democratic, and are thus independent in name only. While a growing share of the state's voters are undeclared -- 44 percent -- at most a third of those voters are seen as true independents."
More: "This time, there is far less evidence of a direct battle for independents between McCain (or Giuliani) and Obama, the Democratic candidate who is appealing to many of the same voters that Bradley did. There is a gulf between the platforms being offered by McCain and Giuliani on the one hand, and Obama on the other, that is unlike anything that existed between McCain and Bradley."
The Boston Globe investigates the use by campaigns of discounted jets provided by supporters. “Rudy Giuliani's presidential campaign used the corporate jets of Las Vegas casino tycoons, the head of NASCAR, and the billionaire owner of the Texas Rangers. John Edwards often had at his disposal the jets of high-powered trial lawyers. And Mitt Romney was transported on planes owned by 27 captains of industry and commerce.”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post says that the Democratic-controlled House last night “approved a $515.7 billion domestic spending measure that shaves billions from spending levels desired by Democrats and uses emergency spending and other tactics to challenge President Bush on his budget demands. The legislation, which passed 253 to 154, funds every agency of government but the Defense Department for fiscal 2008. The House then voted 206 to 201 to approve an amendment that includes $31 billion for fighting in Afghanistan but none for the war in Iraq.”
More: “Today, the Senate is likely to take up resolutions tying Iraq war funding to the withdrawal of U.S. combat troops. If those fall victim to Republican filibusters, as expected, senators are likely to vote to increase the House's war funding to $70 billion and make it available for Iraq fighting as well. Without such war funds, the president will veto the entire spending bill, the White House said yesterday. Aside from that outstanding issue, the Bush administration said it is ‘pleased’ with the final spending level, even with the added billions for ‘emergency’ spending on border security, care for veterans and other long-anticipated issues.”
Meanwhile, the New York Times writes that Senate Democrats put off until at least next month “any decision on whether to give legal protection to the phone carriers that helped with the National Security Agency’s eavesdropping program… Senator Christopher J. Dodd, the Connecticut Democrat and presidential candidate, spent much of the day attacking the idea of giving immunity to the phone companies, and he took credit for the delay. ‘Today we have scored a victory for American civil liberties and sent a message to President Bush that we will not tolerate his abuse of power and veil of secrecy,’ Mr. Dodd said in a statement.”
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
LONDONDERRY, NH -- One day after his first appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press,
Romney faced an onslaught of questions from reporters about his answers on the show, as well as from a voter who chastised him for not answering all the questions he was asked.
Asked about why he was mistaken on the show about his non-endorsement from the NRA during his gubernatorial race, Romney explained, “We checked with them again and said, ‘OK, what are the signals here?’ And they said, ‘Well, we didn’t give you the official endorsement,’ but they phone-banked members here around Massachusetts, or in Massachusetts... So it was, a if you will, a support phone bank, not an official endorsement.”
He was also asked about getting emotional at yesterday’s Meet taping -- and perhaps a little bit at the event today, too -- and he responded, “I’m a normal person. I have emotions.” He went on to explain that he attended more than 40 funerals of those in service while he was governor and said that it was usually quite emotional for him. “I have emotion just like anyone else, but I’m not ashamed of that all."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Andy Merten Ron Paul , it's about respect.
"Actually, there's a better rapport now with other Republicans when I go on the House floor," he said in response to a question about how fellow Republicans are reacting to his alternative anti-war message. "I think they respect fundraising. And their antennas are up!"
"They're having trouble raising money," he added. "So there's some respect for this."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Huckabee in Iowa, Romney hits the former Arkansas governor on his record on pardons and clemencies.
Side-by-side photos of Huckabee and Romney appear on screen as an announcer touts, "Two pro-life Governors. Both support a constitutional amendment to protect traditional marriage. The difference? Romney got tough on drugs like meth. He never pardoned a single criminal. And Mike Huckabee? He granted 1,033 pardons and commutations, including 12 convicted murderers. Huckabee granted more clemencies than the previous three governors combined. Even reduced penalties for manufacturing methamphetamine.
“On crime. The difference is judgment."
Romney’s first comparison ad was on immigration.
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller
DES MOINES, IA -- Iowa’s first lady,
Mari Culver , endorsed
Edwards at a rally at the Temple for Performing Arts here this afternoon. She spent her first moment at the podium applauding the field of candidates vying for the nomination.
“Like you, however, I can only select one candidate to stand with on January 3,” she said, taking a breath.
“You got the right one!” a man in the crowd yelled, setting off a new round of cheers from the mostly union crowd.
“And that is why today, I publicly announce my support for John Edwards for president,” she finished.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
DURHAM, NH -- If the
Giuliani campaign was interested in playing down talk that the candidate is struggling in the early nominating states and not taking New Hampshire particularly seriously, it had a funny way of showing it.
Giuliani came to New Hampshire Monday, but had only public event (he also had a retail stop in Barrington but didn’t alert the national media). Speaking to employees of Goss International Company, he seemed tentative and spent only half of his normal hour at the town hall (he was running late, campaign officials said, because of weather delays). After taking the last question, Giuliani seemed unclear what to do next, taking a long pause and outstretching his arms before transitioning to ask the attendees for their vote, which he has rarely done on the campaign trail.
“I hope you come back real quick after the holiday because -- believe me -- there is a primary right after that,” he said. “I know there is, so I’ll be spending some of my Christmas holiday here in New Hampshire, which I really look forward to... We’ll be here and we’ll be working really hard to get your vote.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum McCain called the endorsement by Joe Lieberman (I/D-CT) a “courageous act,” as the Arizona senator makes a last-minute push for independent voters in the Granite State.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
Spencer, IA -- Turning up the heat may be a slogan that
Clinton coined on the campaign trail, but it was
Obama who ratcheted up the temperature in the Democratic race today -- and it was aimed at
Edwards .
At a town hall here, Obama directly questioned Edwards' record in the Senate, contrasting his record with Edwards' in regards to taking on the special interests. "The reason now that I raise this issue of the special interests is because everybody now in the campaign talks about how I am going to fight for you. Like Sen. Edwards, who is a good guy -- he's been talking a lot about, 'I am going to fight the lobbyists and the special interests in Washington.' Well the question you have to ask is: Were you fighting for'em when you were in the Senate. What did you do? Because I did something, immediately upon arriving in the Senate, despite the fact that it wasn't a popular position to take."
Obama added, "And that will give you some sense of whether or not folks are real are fighting for when they get into the presidency."
“I guess the Obama campaign is starting to realize what others have already: There is growing excitement on the ground for John Edwards as we enter the homestretch," said Edwards communications director Chris Kofinis in a statement. "But the truth is that John Edwards is the only candidate in this race who has never taken a dime of PAC or lobbyist money and he’s also the only one urging the Democratic Party to reject lobbyist money. Unlike others, John Edwards has beaten corporate special interests his entire life, and won’t be obliged to compromise or negotiate with them as President.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Joseph Laliberte Huckabee campaign features the former Baptist minister in front of a Christmas tree noting that with all the political television commercials recently, “…what really matters is the celebration of the birth of Christ.” According to a blog on his campaign Web site, the ad is being featured in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina. The campaign did not immediately return a phone call, requesting information on the buy.
Behind the music of "Silent Night," Huckabee is shown in a red Christmas sweater wishing voters a “Merry Christmas.” Huckabee, who ran an earlier ad with words “Christian Leader” on screen, has been bolstered by the support of evangelicals.
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton and Obama campaigns are up with new TV ads in Iowa. Clinton's plays up her recent Des Moines Register endorsement.
Obama's talks about his candor.
Edwards also went up with an ad over the weekend, which begins running in New Hampshire today, called "Fight." In it, he says he was born for the fight against corporate greed.
From NBC's Mark Murray Joe Lieberman (I) today backed McCain's presidential bid, the Democratic Leadership Council -- a group Lieberman once chaired -- issued this statement, courtesy of DLC founder and CEO Al From: "I am very saddened by Senator Lieberman's choice, and profoundly disagree with it. We need to elect a Democratic president in 2008."
But From and the DLC, critics would point out, didn't think it was important to elect a Democratic Connecticut senator back in 2006. From and key DLC aides supported -- and also worked on -- Lieberman's independent Senate bid, after Ned Lamont bested him in last year's Democratic primary. Lieberman went on to defeat Lamont and Republican Alan Schlesinger in the general election.
So why oppose Lieberman endorsing McCain -- but support Lieberman's independent candidacy a year ago? From, through a spokeswoman, gave this statement to First Read: "In 2006, Joe Lieberman ran in the primary as a Democrat and in the general as an independent Democrat, who said he would vote with the Democrats for control of the Senate. That's far different than supporting a Republican candidate for president." The DLC spokeswoman added that From's statement was his personal remarks, not the DLC's.
*** UPDATE ***
More Lamont: "Last year, Senator Lieberman pleaded with voters to consider his full throated support for the invasion of Iraq as merely a 'single issue' in the context of an otherwise progressive agenda. His endorsement of Senator McCain reminds us that the war in Iraq is actually Lieberman's predominant issue, trumping all else -- or maybe he is looking forward to joining Sen. McCain in a duet rendition of 'Bomb, Bomb, Iran'... With voters just weeks away from making their first decisions, Democrats are lucky to have many extraordinary candidates running for President. I am disappointed that Senator Lieberman does not feel the same way."
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Steve King (R) of not being theatrical.
The Iowa congressman kept his endorsement choice under wraps so closely that no one knew who he would choose between Thompson or Romney for his nod. The vociferous critic of illegal immigration was said to have narrowed his choice to the two candidates, but he joked that "not even his wife" knew who he'd choose.
But at the start of a sparsely attended press conference in Des Moines today, the superstars of Romney's Iowa shop gathered in the back, leading journalists to conclude that King's nod was destined for the Massachusetts governor. But then curious members of Team Thompson swooped in at the last minute.
Apparently, no one knew what lurked in the congressman's mind.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton campaign held a formal launch for the Web site featuring video “testimonials” from friends, constituents, and others who have known the senator for a long time or been helped by her. The event also included a tearful appeal from a childhood friend.
The second day of Clinton's Iowa tour began in a small barn crammed with people, where a screen hung from one wall, with the “Hillary I Know” videos playing on a loop. Clinton has been spending more time recently talking on the stump about her upbringing, her mother’s life, and her values. And these videos and recent appearances on the trail by her mother and daughter were a clear attempt to show Clinton’s softer side -- something that may be key for early state voters. (Indeed, at a question and answer session at an event in New Hampshire over the weekend, one voter told the senator she came of “cold” and “politically calculating.”)
Among those featured in the videos: Clinton’s childhood friend Betsy Ebeling, supporters like Tom Vilsack and Wes Clark , and a New York mother whose daughter the senator helped get treatment for a brain disease.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Abby Livingston
“Probably, just to get a political story and get a fight going, somebody will watch this interview and parse everything I said,” said the 42nd president Friday night on Charlie Rose. What? Never!
In the hour-long interview, Bill Clinton downplayed Hillary’s chances in Iowa, citing her competitors’ strengths in the state. He noted Edwards’ history in Iowa. He also commented on Obama’s home state of Illinios’ proximity to Iowa, neglecting to mention that his wife was raised in suburban Chicago. “So my view of this is that I never thought she had a big lead in Iowa and never thought she could have one.”
Bill Clinton was on the prowl last night, and he was after Obama and the press. He made a litany of criticisms toward Obama, but diverging from Clinton campaign strategist Mark Penn, Clinton made no mention of cocaine. He did, however, bring up Kinder-gate with no prompting from Rose. Clinton claimed that the controversy began because Obama was quoted making a “fairly derisive and obvious comment about Hillary saying, you know, she had some decades-old plan to be president, repeating this total canard.”
&
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Steve King (R), one of Iowa's most strident critics of illegal immigration and a champion of the state's rural conservatives, has endorsed Romney .
With a mere 17 days until the Iowa caucuses, King's endorsement may resonate with conservatives in the western part of the state. King had fostered a close relationship with longshot candidate Tom Tancredo , who shares his strong anti-illegal immigration views. But speculation yesterday was that the much-revered (in some circles) congressman wanted to make a splash by endorsing one of the race's front-runners.
King's endorsement of Romney could serve to further the Massachusetts governor's case against
Huckabee , whom Team Romney hopes to paint as weak on immigration.
*** UPDATE *** King just announced that he's supporting
Thompson . Team Romney is in the back of the room looking bewildered. They were all here, leading all the press to conclude that it was an endorsement for Romney.
Stand by for more.
*** UPDATE II ***
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** Hillary’s lifesaver and Obama’s challenge:
The Des Moines Register’s endorsement of Clinton was the surprise of the weekend, and it certainly lifted Team Clinton’s spirits. According to NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones, Hillary’s campaign aides were in an especially good mood the day after the endorsement -- absolutely dripping with sugar. And Clinton herself was beaming early on in her appearance on TODAY this morning (she mentioned the endorsement numerous times). “I think we have tremendous momentum,” she said. “I feel very good about where my campaign is.” But in many respects, the paper’s nod was also a lifesaver for the campaign in Iowa, where it had received little good news until Saturday night. Then again, it pulled the Clintons back into the state. If Obama -- and not Clinton -- had received the endorsement, it arguably might have led them to abandon the state. To borrow a poker term, the Democratic front-runners (Clinton, Edwards, Obama) now are all-in in the Hawkeye State. As for Obama, he does need to answer where the Des Moines Register editorial says he comes up short: experience. He's made the change case obviously, or the Clinton camp wouldn't be retooling so much. But he needs to close the experience gap, just a little...
*** Endorsement smorgasbord: Clinton, who also got the nod from former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey (who once called Bill Clinton an “unusually good liar”), wasn’t the only candidate picking up endorsements. Obama got the Boston Globe’s nod and today receives one from Iowa Rep. David Loebsack (D), which is Obama’s biggest get so far in the Hawkeye State. Edwards today picks up an endorsement from the wife of Iowa Gov. Chet Culver (D). And McCain -- who also appeared on TODAY this morning -- got the nods from both the Register and the Boston Globe, and today got one from Joe Lieberman (I). Just asking, though: Does the support of liberal editorial boards and one of the most pro-choice lawmakers in the US Congress really help McCain with GOP voters? Probably not, but the MSM buzz is helpful and maybe that will stop the bleeding of New Hampshire independents from McCain to Obama.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on what presidential candidate Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., can hope to gain from recent endorsements from Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman and New England newspapers. *** Mr. Bill: So has Bill Clinton been helpful at all to his wife’s campaign? Read today’s New York Times piece about his role on the campaign, and some hard-core Hillary supporters may not be able to answer that question in the affirmative. And after you read it all the way through, ask yourself: Can Mark Penn survive Hillary losing both Iowa and New Hampshire? Also, the article reports that the latest Hillary message -- in what has been a slew of new messages over the past month -- comes from Bill.
***
Wither Rudy? What has happened to the Giuliani juggernaut? Two months ago, he seemed well on his way to using his national poll strength to will his way to the nomination. But the campaign seems to realize they have problems. Now the Giuliani campaign seems to be gunning for Florida (which holds its primary on January 29) and the February 5th states. The campaign has cut its New Hampshire TV ad buy in half and attempted to re-launch the campaign with a speech on Saturday. But we have to ask: Why on a Saturday to you give that speech? And why wasn't the speech a teleprompter speech? Why was he reading from prepared text? Giuliani seems to be a candidate in search of attention right now. He's spending just three days campaigning this week, using the other two to fundraiser.
*** Meet Mitt Romney: If Giuliani’s appearance on Meet the Press last week exposed how the personal (Judi) and personnel (Kerik) could haunt him in a general election, Romney’s appearance yesterday on the show highlighted that it will be nearly impossible for Republicans and the RNC to label Clinton, Obama, or Edwards a flip-flopper in the general, if Romney becomes the nominee. But the headline out of the Meet interview for Romney? The fact that a news cycle didn't even pass without his campaign having to clean up an error (Romney telling Russert that the NRA endorsed him, which it didn’t). By the way, with Romney's and Rudy’s struggles, combined with the slew of bad press for Huckabee, one has to realize there's not a single GOP front-runner right now. It's truly a five-way scrum with Ron Paul as the potential spoiler.
Video: Presidential hopeful, former Gov. Mitt Romney, R-Mass, appears on Meet the Press for an in-depth interview. *** Ron Paul’s Tea Party: Speaking of Paul… Pegged to the anniversary of the Boston Tea Party, the Paul campaign yesterday raked in more than $6 million, surpassing the $4 million-plus it raised in an earlier fundraiser tied to Guy Fawkes Day. And it has now raised $18.2 million for the 4th quarter. We have one word to say about Paul’s haul: Wow. Much has been made about the lack of the excitement over the GOP field. But there is clearly excitement -- at least online -- about one of the Republican candidates. The problem for the GOP is Paul won’t likely be its nominee. And many of these Paul backers aren’t really Republicans…
*** On the Trail: Clinton campaigns in Iowa, where (among other things) she attends an AFSCME rally with union president Gerry McEntee; Dodd also is in Iowa; so is Edwards, who concludes his bus tour and picks up an endorsement from the wife of Iowa Gov. Chet Culver (D); Giuliani gives a speech in Durham, NH; Huckabee holds a media avail in Beverly Hills, CA before attending a fundraiser there; Kucinich is in New Hampshire; McCain also spends his day in the Granite State, where he already picked up Lieberman’s endorsement; Obama stumps in Iowa, hitting Spencer, Storm Lake, Cherokee, Le Mars, and Sioux City; Richardson makes four stops in Iowa; Romney holds a closed-press fundraiser in Boston before campaigning in New Hampshire; and Thompson is in Iowa. Also, Bill Clinton is in South Carolina, where he attends a dinner honoring former Clinton Administration Education Secretary Dick Riley.
Countdown to Iowa: 17 days
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The New York Times lists the plethora of major endorsements over the last 48 hours -- from newspapers to former presidential candidates.
Per NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan, Obama chief strategist David Axelrod said that the competing endorsements from the Boston Globe (for Obama) and the Des Moines Register (for Clinton) captured the decision that Democrats are faced with in January. "If you laid those two editorials side by side, you get a pretty good sense of the arguments in this race. You've got the sort of incremental argument that you need Washington experience versus you know that the Washington game isn't working," he said.
Iowa’s three congressional Democrats now are split evenly among the three Dem front-runners -- Dave Loebsack is with Obama, Bruce Braley is with Edwards, and Leonard Boswell is with Clinton.
Conservative Iowa GOP Rep. Steve King will unveil his choice later today.
The Portsmouth Herald endorses McCain. He “will tell you the truth, even if it costs him the election.”
There are still some major endorsements to be had: Al Gore, Ted Kennedy, and John Kerry on the Democratic side; the Doles and James Dobson on the GOP side.
BIDEN: Per his campaign, Biden picked up endorsements yesterday from Keokuk, IA Mayor David Gudgel and New Hampshire state Rep. Bob Williams.
Yet Biden “admitted that it was disappointing to lose [the Des Moines Register’s ] nod after some lauded him as having the best performance at a debate sponsored by the newspaper. ‘The paper was fair to me. They really gave me a shot,’ he said. ‘I honestly thought we were in the race.’”
Biden is making the case for foreign policy experience for the next president. (Anyone else noticed that as domestic issues have become more dominant on the campaign trail, the buzz for Richardson, Biden, and Dodd has started to die down? Those three candidates desperately needed this campaign to be about foreign policy from day one.)
CLINTON: The New York Times front-pages, "Mr. Clinton is not running his wife’s campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination. But less than three weeks before the Iowa caucuses, and with polls showing a tight race, he has become the most powerful force in her political operation besides the candidate herself." The piece also notes that Bill is still upset at the media's treatment of Hillary and Obama. "They say he allowed that frustration to spill over on ‘The Charlie Rose Show’ on Friday night, when he criticized the news media as forgoing tough scrutiny of Mr. Obama. The advisers said he also believed that the Obama camp was persuading the reporters to focus on gaffes by his wife and her campaign, like the recent Clinton campaign statement that Mr. Obama harbored presidential ambitions even in kindergarten, and a campaign official’s remark last week about Mr. Obama’s past drug use."
CONTINUED >>
It's official: There's no Republican front-runner. And if you insist on naming one, you have to say it's Huckabee. Yes, Huckabee. After all, who else is in the lead in two of the three early states and competitive nationally?
VIDEO: Former Governor Mike Huckabee, R-Ark., explains why he is not surprised at his rise in the polls. New York Times notes how the rest of the GOP field is "scrambling" to deal with Huckabee's rise. “As the Democratic candidates crisscrossed Iowa on Sunday, the Republicans pounded one another, with Mr. Huckabee’s ascendancy rippling across the field. Mr. Romney demanded that Mr. Huckabee apologize to President Bush for comments he made about the administration’s foreign policy, with Mr. Huckabee firing back, while Fred D. Thompson flung the ultimate conservative insult, calling him a ‘liberal.’”
GIULIANI: The Washington Post's Shear notes, "The current center of the political universe is Iowa, as presidential candidates from both parties are spending millions and braving the winter weather in the struggle to win its first-in-the-nation caucuses. But former New York mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani has been largely absent from the scrum of candidates there. On Saturday, he delivered a major speech to supporters in balmy central Florida -- more than 1,300 miles from ice-packed Des Moines."
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post writes, “With violence on the decline in Iraq but on the upswing in Afghanistan, President Bush is facing new pressure from the U.S. military to accelerate a troop drawdown in Iraq and bulk up force levels in Afghanistan, according to senior U.S. officials. Administration officials said the White House could start to debate the future of the American military commitment in both Iraq and Afghanistan as early as next month. Some Pentagon officials are urging a further drawdown of forces in Iraq beyond that envisioned by the White House, which is set to reduce the number of combat brigades from 20 to 15 by the end of next summer.”
More: “Bush's decisions on Iraq and Afghanistan could heavily influence his ability to pass on to his successor stable situations in both countries, an objective his advisers describe as one of the president's paramount goals for his final year in office. They say Bush will listen closely to his military commanders on the ground before making any decisions on troops but is unlikely to do anything he believes could jeopardize recent, hard-won security improvements in Iraq.”
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama attends church frequently on the campaign trail, sometimes allowing the press to come along, sometimes attending on his own. He spoke briefly today at the First Congregational Church of Christ here, with a message more focused on how he became a Christian than it was on winning votes.
Though Obama has been hammering his message of change at town halls across Iowa, he took a reflective turn at the church, saying that running for president wasn’t the only way to bring about change. “You don't have to run for president in order to make a difference. Certainly, those of you here in Iowa who have been bombarded by political messages unfortunately over the holiday season, I hope we are all reminded that all of us have some work to do. And that this is a moment of celebration of the birth of our savior, but it is also a moment of reflection on how we can make a contribution to our community,” he said.
Obama also participated in a time-honored ritual at the church: tossing mittens for charity onto a large evergreen tree. When he took the podium to speak briefly about his faith and how he joined the Trinity United Church in Chicago, part of the United Church of Christ and a sister church to the one in Mason City, he joked that his skill on the basketball court would make sure that the mittens he tossed would land on the tree.
“My understanding is when I toss the mittens, I'm supposed to try for the top. I used to play basketball, I'm confident in my skills. Think I'm gonna do just fine," he said.
But as Obama, with a grin on his face, tossed his first mitten he missed, the five fingered glove hitting the floor rather than the branches. “Oooh!” the audience yelled. He had better luck with his second toss, the mitten landed on a branch and stayed.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones COUNCIL BLUFFS, IA -- Launching her a “Hill-A-Copter” tour through Iowa today, Clinton repeated the closing argument speech she gave during her one-day swing through New Hampshire yesterday and recycled her new line of attack against her nearest rivals -- that she will work hard for change, rather than hoping for it or demanding it.
Clinton highlighted her work as a public servant and a “change maker” -- an argument her husband presented at campaign stops here last week -- and reminded Iowans that she was counting on them to stand for her on caucus night. “I need everyone who is ready for change to go the caucuses on Jan. 3,” a relaxed Clinton told an enthusiastic crowd at a local high school, from behind a podium from which hung a small banner reading “Working for change, working for you.”
Clinton used some form of the word “change” or the phrase “new beginning” -- which is another way of saying “change” -- no less than 23 times in her 33-minute speech (an average of more than once every minute and a half.)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray Bob Kerrey (D) endorsed Clinton . Nebraska, of course, borders Iowa, so the endorsement could help Clinton in the western part of the Hawkeye State. On the other hand, the Kerrey endorsement was suggested by the New York Times a few weeks ago, and the endorsement will spur reporters to remember Kerrey's description of Bill Clinton in the 1990s as "an unusually good liar."
Also, the Ron Paul campaign today announced that it has already raised $13.5 million for this quarter, surpassing its $12 million goal.
And the Dodd camp is going up with a new radio in Iowa that features Iraq war vet and state Rep. Ray Zirkelbach, who has endorsed Dodd. "I want people to know that talking about Iraq, and doing this radio ad, is not easy for me,' Zirkelbach says in it. "But I'm doing it because I want my 20-month old daughter Claire, who was born while I was in Iraq, to live in a country with leaders who once again care about what's happening to average families like yours and mine."
From NBC's Ken Strickland and Chuck Todd According to multiple sources, Sen.
Joe Lieberman , the independent senator who caucuses with the Democrats in the senate, will be endorsing Republican Sen.
John McCain's Republican presidential campaign tomorrow in New Hampshire. Obviously, the decision to showcase this endorsement in New Hampshire is a play by McCain to appeal to those evasive independent voters of the Granite State. Eight years ago, McCain was the beneficiary of another bipartisan event which some viewed as a near-endorsement when McCain and
Bill Bradley did a joint event on campaign reform. Many McCain alum believe that was a turning point for McCain in New Hampshire with independents.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Chuck Todd Mari Culver , the First Lady of Iowa and wife of Governor Chet Culver , will announce her endorsement of John Edwards tomorrow in Des Moines. Edwards was asked about the rumor during his Sunday show interviews and he demurred. But plenty of Democratic sources wouldn't steer us away from the news. Look for AP to break this officially very soon.
The announcement is set to come as Edwards concludes his eight-day bus tour of the state in the Hawkeye capitol. With a dwindling number of local nods from influential Iowa bigs, the endorsement could provide a nice boost as Edwards sells his closing argument that he's the best candidate for first-in-the-nation Iowans. More importantly, Edwards supporters will hope the Culver nod would dilute, slightly, the impact of the Des Moines Register nod for Clinton.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Clinton got good news out of Iowa Saturday with the Des Moines Register’s endorsement. As she began to make her closing argument in New Hampshire, however, she faced some tough questions, including one from a voter who said she comes across as “cold and politically calculating.”
At town hall meetings in Plaistow and Nashua yesterday, Clinton placed a renewed focus on her experience. “I was a public servant before I was ever in public office,” she said, before citing areas on her resume where she said she has “been a change maker” -- working with the Children’s Defense Fund, as a member of the Legal Services Corporation, working for universal health care in 1993, advocating for women’s rights abroad as first lady; and as a senator from New York." America is ready for a new beginning," she said. "And it really comes down to one question: Who is ready and able on Day One to make the changes America deserves to have? This is the work of my lifetime. I have been working on behalf of change ever since I can remember."
Expanding on a point she first made in the Iowa debate this week, Clinton also contrasted her approach with that Edwards and Obama . “Some believe that you can get change by demanding it. And some believe you can get change by hoping for it. I believe you get change by working hard to make it happen,” she said.
Voters here, while indicating support for her, confronted her directly on some issues that they said were deal-breakers. In Plaistow, Barbara Dennett, a teacher from Newfield, said she and her friends were concerned about her voting record on the war. “What can you say that will assure us that you don’t want to be the war president that President Bush is so proud to be?” Dennett asked.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann A few things to keep in mind about last night's endorsements of Hillary Clinton and John McCain by the Des Moines Register:Obama nod, and a few preemptive rumors started circulating early that he, in fact, was going to win the endorsement. Some journalists and campaign staff were surprised -- to say the least -- at the selection of Clinton. One source from a rival campaign said that they had heard Clinton had been ruled out of the process weeks ago; another said that the editorial board had apparently found Clinton to be overly methodical and stringent in their meetings. But, as the New York Times' Zeleny reported on Saturday, the Clinton campaign courted this endorsement diligently. And it paid off. candidate-by-candidate justification of the also-rans. Note that there's not a negative word about Obama. And take a look at the continued questioning of Biden's "loquaciousness" and "ill-considered remarks related to race."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Domenico Montanaro The
Des Moines Register has endorsed
Clinton and
McCain .
The Register's endorsement has been particularly influential on the Democratic side.
This year, Register “calls McCain and Clinton the candidates it believes are most competent and ready to lead." And, "With dissension at home and distrust abroad, as American troops continue to fight wars on two fronts, the times call for two essential qualities in the next American president. Those qualities became the paramount considerations in making endorsements for the Democratic and Republican nominees in the 2008 Iowa caucuses.
“The times call for competence. Americans want their government to work again.
The times call for readiness to lead. Americans want their country to do great things again. They’ll regain trust in their government when they see a president make that happen.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan and Domenico Montanaro The
Boston Globe has endorsed
Obama and
McCain . The Globe released early excerpts of its editorial to be published Sunday morning.
The Globe’s editorial board “wrote that Obama, the Illinois Democrat, fulfills America's need for ‘a president with an intuitive sense of the wider world,’ and that McCain, the Arizona Republican, ‘has done more than his share to transcend partisanship and promote an honest discussion of the problems facing the United States.’”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann DES MOINES, Iowa -- The state of Iowa waits with bated breath tonight
for the Des Moines Register to drop its much-anticipated endorsement. Once guarded about the timing of the announcement, the Register Web site
now invites visitors to be "the first to know!" by signing up for the
DMR text message service. (Yes, I signed up.)
For context: the
Des Moines Register endorsement proved a key boost for Edwards in
2004. With a mere eight days until the caucuses, the nod to Edwards
super-charged his momentum to yield a surprise second-place finish. The Register's endorsement has proved influential in three of the last
four cycles; they backed caucus victor Walter Mondale in 1984 and
second-place shower Paul Simon in 1988. (The fluke year was 2000,
when the Register's endorsement of Bill Bradley fell flat in the
two-man race with Al Gore.)
There's wide speculation on all
sides, although the loudest rumor appears to be a possible lean towards
Obama. The ed board's evaluation of the senator from Illinois was
among the most favorable.
Also, like any big paper, the Register hopes for maximum
kingmaker potential. A nod from the state's most-read ink could do the
same thing for Obama's upward thrust that it did for Edwards in 2004. On the other hand, Obama took heat for skipping out on a number of Iowa
events earlier in the political season, and some might complain that he
hasn't been as committed to getting to know the state as much as other rivals.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Independence, Iowa --
Obama took a rare swipe at
Edwards this morning in Independence, Iowa. When
talking about how to pass universal health care, Obama said that
Edwards' approach which involved just beating the drug and insurance
companies is unrealistic.
"This is just a little comment,
because Senator Edwards, he and I have similar plans and he's done some
good work, but he argued that you know Barack, the problem is that he
thinks you can negotiate with insurance companies and drug companies,
and I just think that you gotta just beat them," Obama said referencing
an attack Edwards had made on Obama's approach to health care.
Obama
went on to say, "Well you know what the key to getting this done is to
empower the American people, but you also have to have negotiataions,
and you have to listen. Otherwise stuff is not going to happen. We want
to reduce the power of drug companies and insurance companies and so
forth, but the notion that they will have no say so at all in anything
is just not realistic; it's just not true."
Edwards
responded to the attack at his own town hall later in the day, saying the way to get universal health care is to fight for it.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Bethany Thomas COLUMBIA, S.C. -- McCain held a press conference here to announce the endorsement of more than 110 retired admirals and generals, including Rear Admiral Bob Shumaker, Admiral Leighton “Snuffy” Smith, and Maj. Gen. Stan Spears. In the words of Smith, “This nation is at war, and we better damn well understand that, and this gentleman behind me is the only one I know that has consistently supported the actions against these fundamental terrorists.”
During the press conference, he also laid out his strategy in Iraq if he was president. “I know what we need to do, and I know how to do it.”
On expanding the troops: “ I want to expand and will expand the United States Army and Marine Corp from 750,000 troops to 900,000 troops. We live in a dangerous world, and I will give you some straight talk. We’re going to be in Afghanistan for a while; we’re going to be in Iraq for a while.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Hillary Clinton spent about an hour going door to door in Manchester.
She went in to four or five houses on Montgomery Street on the city's
west side along with state Sen. Lou D'Allesaandro. In between
houses, she stopped to talk to a family. Their dog, which they had just
picked up today, jumped up on Clinton. She bent down to talk to it and
promised to be a great president for dogs.
At another house,
Hillary encountered another dog owner, whose beagle growled and barked
at all of the intruders, while Clinton talked to his owner. The
temperature was in the teens and Clinton and her entourage navigated
through some deep snow from Thursday's storm. As she got back to her
SUV, Clinton said she's used to the weather, being from Chicago.
After
the canvass, Clinton dropped into a local diner, where she shook some
hands, signed some autographs for young kids and hugged a waitress.
She stayed to have lunch with D'Alessandro and her state director, at
which point we were kindly asked to leave.
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller DUBUQUE, Iowa -- In a campaign event where
Edwards shared top billing with actor Kevin Bacon, the former senator returned a shot from rival
Obama .
The former senator noted that Obama referred to him, saying that negotiations need to be made to pass universal health care. Obama’s criticism came in a town hall in Independence this morning.
“He said, I think you have to bring these people to the table and negotiate with them, and that’s what it’s going to take to get the health care that we need in this country,” Edwards said. “I just fundamentally disagree. I think we have an epic fight in front of us. And I think if we’re not up for that fight -- if you don’t have a fighter as your nominee and your president the same thing’s going to happen next year and for the following year and the following year that’s happened for the last few decades. How long have the Democrats been talking about universal health care? It started with Harry Truman literally!”
Kevin Bacon and his band opened the day’s first event with a three-song set. He then introduced
Rep. Bruce Braley , an Edwards endorser who represents Dubuque. The freshman congressman, in turn, introduced Elizabeth Edwards, who paved the way for her husband.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Amna Nawaz, Investigative Producer Questions are being raised about then-Gov.
Huckabee 's 2004 decision to grant clemency to a repeat Driving While Intoxicated offender in Arkansas named Eugene Fields, despite the objections of a law enforcement official at the time. Documents obtained by NBC News reveal Fields' case was handled differently from any other DWI clemency or pardon granted by Huckabee, and some Republicans are now suggesting significant political contributions may have influenced the governor's decision.
In August 2001, Fields, of Van Buren, Ark., was convicted of his fourth DWI charge, a felony in the state of Arkansas, was sentenced to six years in prison and a $5,000 fine. Fields reported to prison in August of 2003.
But prison records obtained by NBC News show that six weeks into that six-year sentence, Fields' application for clemency, a commutation of his sentence the governor could issue to grant Fields an early release from prison, was unanimously supported by the parole board. Within months, Huckabee issued his intent to grant executive clemency to Fields, who was released from prison soon thereafter.
On Fields' application for a commutation of his sentence, four options are listed as possible reasons as to why the application was being made, including, "I wish to correct an injustice which may have occurred during trial," and, "I want to adjust what may be considered an excessive sentence." No boxes are checked on Fields' application; instead "N/A" is written across the top of the sheet, for "Not Applicable."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Guttenberg, Iowa -- Obama said the
withdrawal of all troops from Iraq could take two and half to three years.
"WhenI say
we are going to pull out," Obama said, "we can take one to two brigades out every
month responsibly and safely. At that pace, it would take 16 months
to get our combat troops back home."
The remarks are a more optimistic estimate
than what he and the two other leading candidates for the Democratic
nomination, Clinton and Edwards provided at the
Democratic debate at Dartmouth in late September. At that debate, none
of the three candidates would commit to having troops withdrawn from
Iraq by the end of their first term.
The answer at that debate
led voters to pepper Obama with questions about his commitment to
immediately bringing the war to an end, and Obama responded by
criticizing the media for misconstruing his answer. In the weeks
following the debate, he qualified his stance on troop withdrawal
assaying that he would keep troops in Iraq for diplomatic, humanitarian
and counter-terrorism purposes.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan At a press conference in Waterloo, Iowa, today,
Obama said that Americans are tired of "slash and burn" politics and are not interested in "politics as a blood sport" in reference to recent attacks by the
Clinton campaign on his past drug use and his lack of experience.
Late yesterday, President
Bill Clinton on PBS's Charlie Rose compared Obama to a "gifted television commentator," saying he had only one year of national service experience before running for office. Earlier in the day at a press conference, Clinton had said there were "no surprises" with her campaign. Thursday afternoon, Bill Shaheen, co-chair of Clinton's campaign in New Hampshire resigned for questioning about Obama's past drug use, saying that Republicans would go as far as to ask if Obama had sold drugs.
Obama dismissed the attacks with a laugh, saying, "Well, look I mean when I was 20 points down they all thought I was a wonderful guy. Obviously things have changed here in Iowa and the rest of the country, and that's the kind of politics we've become accustomed to.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney said he wouldn’t contrast himself with Huckabee on foreign policy experience despite stressing that it’s fair for him to point out differences between the two men, the former Massachusetts governor lit into his Arkansan colleague for a forthcoming article he penned for Foreign Affairs. Barack Obama ? Or from Hillary Clinton ? Did it come from John Edwards . No. It was one of our own. It was Gov. Huckabee.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller and NBC's Abby Livingston MANCHESTER, Iowa --
Edwards repackaged his economic policies with young families in mind at a town hall in northeastern Iowa Friday afternoon. He called for incentives for young adults to save, a national predatory lending law and regulation of credit card companies.
"One of the things that we want to help young families and young people in general with is the debt that so many of them are faced with, and there are a number of things we need to do to deal with that," he said.
He also reiterated his policies for young children, including universal pre-K for 4-year-olds and helping younger children with nutrition and child care (by expanding the child care tax credit) and ran down his plan for universal health care and training young adults for green jobs through community colleges and high schools.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani today borrowed from some of the campaign themes that helped him get elected twice as mayor of New York City, as he reintroduced himself as a candidate at a rally billed as the start of the final stretch of his campaign.
Giuliani focused his remarks on what the country would do after four -- or perhaps eight -- years of his presidency. Naming several issues, he suggested the American call was to “get it done,” to which he answered “and we will.” But he said nothing he hadn’t said before. “What America needs in 2008 is a proven leader who will get things done,” he said. “I’ve been tested, I’m ready, and the time is right now.”
His new theme is simply, “Tested. Ready. Now.”
The speech was reminiscent of Giuliani’s first inaugural address as mayor in 1994 -- made famous by a young Andrew Giuliani lingering at the podium, waving to supporters -- in which Giuliani repeatedly said: “It should be so, and it will be so.”
(It also reminded at least one person of the Larry the Cable Guy catchphrase, as one supporter yelled “Git-R-Done!” amid Giuliani’s speech.)
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Bethany Thomas JAMES ISLAND, S.C. -- One man stood up at a legion post town hall here and reminded the group that McCain had incredible singing talents. The crowd laughed until the man continued and reminded the crowd of his previous song, "Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran. He then asked what the senator will do with Iran in light of the NIE report.
McCain’s response: "No thanks for reminding me, you jerk. [Laughter]. I don't know where the intelligence came from. But, if you are enriching the material then it doesn't take long to make a nuclear weapon. Second, I don't detect a change in Iranians behavior…they still pose a threat to our country."
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan Who’s this mysterious congressman, who won’t eat at McDonalds?
Twice Friday,
Obama has received questions about the role of lobbyists in Washington and said that the lobbying culture in Washington is so entrenched that a member of Congress complained that he would have to eat at McDonald’s if lobbyists couldn’t pay for his meals.
In Manchester, Iowa, Obama said, “Last year I worked with
Russ Feingold , and we passed the toughest lobbying reform legislation since Watergate. We banned (lists the things he’s banned) meals, and gifts, and jets from lobbyists for members of Congress. I have to tell you it was resisted not just by Republicans but also by Democrats. I remember one person, I won’t name names, this is s a true story. When I said we’re going to eliminate meals for lobbyists, said, ‘So what am I going to do eat at McDonalds?’”
“That’s my point,” Obama said. “You get paid a $160,000 a year -- you can afford to eat at Applebee’s. You don’t have to stoop so low to eat at McDonalds.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy
Calling
Huckabee "the next
Reagan ," Ed Rollins joined Huckabee's campaign team Friday as national campaign chairman and advisor.
"I've looked for a long time to find a candidate similar to [Reagan].
Mike Huckabee impresses on me as that kind of candidate," said Rollins,
who ran Reagan's 1984 campaign, winning all but Mondale's home state of
Minnesota, in Concord, N.H. "There's a lot of people running around
talking about the Reagan days and who's the next Reagan. I was with the
old Reagan, and I can promise you this man comes as close to anyone to
filling those shoes and having that ability to communicate."
Speaking at a Holiday Inn, Rollins added Huckabee has more than just
support from Christian conservatives in Iowa. "What Mike has had is an
ability to connect with people," he said. "His message is an upbeat
message, a message not of negativism, not a message of Wall Street, not
a message of Washington. It's a message about, ‘I understand your
problems. I've governed a small state with lots of problems.’
Certainly, that's what has great appeal here."
Huckabee said Rollins fills the missing hole in his national campaign
staff. He credits his success thus far to running a "disciplined and
frugal campaign" and said Rollins -- who said Huckabee's campaign will
be his last -- will help "carry the campaign all the way to the
nomination and the White House."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan CEDAR RAPIDS, IA -- On the first full day of Obama’s bus tour through central and western Iowa yesterday, the most exciting event has been passing a field of cows. A handful of journalists and some staffers grabbed their cameras and started snapping pictures.
If the goal of the campaign is to lay low and connect to voters, so far it’s working. Obama had a Meet the Candidate event in Monticello, where he gave his stump speech and answered voters’ questions on cancer research, the role of lobbyists in government, veterans affairs and even the United States’ relationship with Saudi Arabia and Norway.
Obama only made one small acknowledgment of his standing in the race, telling the crowd, “I am confident in my ability to lead this country. And increasingly we are doing well not just here in Iowa but across this country. I think people are receptive to this message of change.”
Later at an economic roundtable in Cedar Rapids, Obama talked about the politics of hope. “There’s been a lot of talk in this campaign by me about the politics of hope,” he said. “The politics of hope doesn’t mean hoping that things come easy. It’s the politics of believing in things unseen, of believing what this country might be and standing up and fighting for it when it is hard.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Domenico Montanaro Powerline blog, a conservative blog, story that he did not, in fact, have a theology degree, as he has claimed. Here is Huckabee's response:
"I have a bachelor of arts in religion and a minor in communications in my undergraduate work. And then I have 46 hours on a master's degree at Southwestern Theology Seminary. So, my degree as a theological degree is at the college level and then 46 hours toward a masters -- three years of study of New Testament Greek, and then the rest of it, all in Seminary was theological studies, but my degree was actually in religion."
Here's what Huckabee said in a Christian Broadcasting Network interview:
From NBC/NJ's Matthew Berger Giuliani Saturday, when he delivers what the campaign is billing as a major address. Instead, Giuliani will be kicking off the final phase of his campaign with a rousing message of what he would bring to the job and what he would do if elected.
Giuliani never had a formal announcement event and did not roll out big policy positions in the fall like some of his colleagues. He stuck to amassing a strong war chest and holding small town halls and retail events. So Saturday’s speech will be a rare, scripted event for him.
The other times that all eyes have been on Giuliani at a lectern -- the NRA speech and the Values Voters Summit -- Giuliani was in the unenviable position of proving a negative about his positions on gun control and abortion. This will be the first big speech in months where Giuliani can craft the topic and control the message. Campaign manager Mike DuHaime and speechwriter John Avlon were on the trail with Giuliani in recent days, undoubtedly finalizing the remarks.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones Clinton spent half of a news conference today announcing the endorsement of Iowa U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell (D), then took questions on the Obama drug use dust-up, her electability, her decision to compete in Iowa and how she’s handling the concerns her husband has reportedly expressed about her campaign.
Clinton was asked several times what she meant by comments made during her Iowa Public Television interview that there would be no surprises in a Hillary Clinton campaign. Was she referring to Obama?
"No, it was directed at me," she said. "I think, as many people have said, I’ve read this quote from a lot of my supporters. I’m a known quantity. I am tested and vetted, but what’s most important in this campaign is who will be the best president. That’s my primary case to the people in Iowa and across America. We don’t know what’s going to happen in the future, and we need a president who is ready on Day One for anything.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten Clinton spoke about some of the difficulties she has had in the Hawkeye state. Obama is the senator from neighboring Illinois. Edwards has been a steady presence, campaigning in Iowa since his 2004 run.Tom Harkin in 1991 and 1992. Compare this with the former president’s remarks in New Jersey earlier this week.
“Of all the states in the country, Iowa’s the most challenging one for her to start,” Bill Clinton told an audience at a campaign event in New Brunswick, N.J., Wednesday night. He went on to draw the same comparison to her two chief opponents, saying, “Senator Edwards has worked hard there for seven years; he did very well there four years ago,” and continuing, “Senator Obama is from a neighboring state, has had television exposure there for three years, and there are thousands of Illinois students who go to school there, and they may caucus for the first time.”
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones JOHNSTON, Iowa -- Iowa U.S. Rep. Leonard Boswell (D) announced his support for Hillary Clinton today, citing her ability to win in November 2008.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro
*** No real winners or losers : As it was after the GOP debate, it’s very hard to say "this person won" or "this person lost" in yesterday’s Democratic Des Moines Register/Iowa Public Television debate. The format basically prevented any back-and-forths, and the mood was chipper on the stage and that kept everyone comfortable. Much like Huckabee on Wednesday, perhaps no one benefited more from the subdued format than Obama, since he's the guy with the momentum. Obama also got his YouTube moment with his shot back at Hillary on the question regarding Clinton advisers. As for Hillary, she oddly didn't get as much time in this forum (er debate) than she has in previous ones, which may lead some to believe she was not at her best. But she had plenty of good moments -- just not enough air time. (We can’t believe we’re saying that a Clinton didn’t get airtime at a debate!)
*** The rest : All of the candidates seemed overly prepared with this debate, as if they got all of the questions in advance (which in many cases they did, because they were the same ones from the GOP debate. Biden, as usual, came across very well, although he was a bit too emotional, which isn't always presidential. Edwards seemed to do a good job of talking to Iowans specifically; he strikes us as being the John Edwards of late 2003. Could he be on the same comeback trail he experienced four years ago? Time will tell. Edwards folks are crowing about focus group victories. Dodd and Richardson clearly were the favorites of the moderator, and that may help them if plenty of Iowans watched the debate.
*** I want a new drug : Of course, the debate was overshadowed by the drug story that appears to have backfired on Clinton, even if it was never the campaign's intention to launch the attack. The Obama folks would like nothing more than to keep this story alive and this morning they are unveiling a YouTube of a former Clinton precinct captain explaining why she switched from Clinton to Obama. It is reminiscent of the Windows-MAC switch ads of a few years ago. Don't be surprised if this ends up being turned into an actual TV ad over the next few weeks where Obama supporters make the case that it is ok to switch from Clinton.
*** The re-launch : Is it us, or are the New Yorkers in this race -- both of whom have seen their poll numbers dip in recent days -- relaunching their campaigns? Yesterday, the Clinton campaign unveiled a new ad featuring Clinton's mother and showing footage of the three generations of Clinton/Rodham women campaigning last week. And last night, per NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones, Clinton was talking about her life and her mother. Yet another Clinton/Rodham women ad was unveiled this morning featuring the senator narrating. Meanwhile, the Washington Post Cillizza reports that Giuliani will give a speech on Saturday that amounts to his closing argument. In it, Giuliani will describe what a Giuliani presidency would look like, and the speech has this tagline: “Tested. Ready. Now.’” The setting of the speech -- Florida -- tells folks everything about the Giuliani strategy.
*** Here comes Ed Rollins : Meanwhile, in a different kind of re-launch, Huckabee -- in New Hampshire -- will announce that old GOP hand Ed Rollins is becoming his campaign’s national chairman. More than anything else, this looks like an attempt by Huckabee to curry favor with the GOP establishment, right? The more familiar Republicans he can start attracting, the more he can look like a realistic nominee. Huckabee still has to get over the "can he really lead the party" hurdle.
*** On the trail: A day after the debate there, Biden continues to campaign in Iowa; so does Clinton, who holds a press conference after taping an appearance on Iowa Public Television, and then heads to a fundraiser in Hempstead, NY; Dodd and Edwards are also in Iowa; Huckabee, meanwhile, stumps in New Hampshire; McCain raises money in New York before heading to South Carolina; Obama makes seven stops in Iowa; Paul is interviewed on CNBC’s Mad Money and also PBS’s NOW; Richardson makes five stops in New Hampshire; Romney is in Iowa; and Bill Clinton keynotes the National Black Caucus of State Legislators Conference in Little Rock.
Countdown to Iowa: 20 days
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The New York Times says that Clinton’s answer on her health-care failure from the 1990s (in which she said she learned from her mistake) and Obama’s slight jab at Hillary after he was asked about having former Clinton Administration officials as advisers “were among the few ripples in an otherwise placid 90-minute forum, where, in a sharp departure from past debates, not one of the six Democratic candidates attacked another by name. Instead, with three weeks to go until the first-in-the-nation caucuses there, the candidates took the opportunity to make friendly pitches to Iowa voters. Strategists fear that voters could be turned off by an increasingly negative tone in the campaign.”
The Des Moines Register writes the theme of the debate was: “Who can most credibly usher in change?”
The Los Angeles Times characterizes the debate as an exchange of "gentle words." More: "The candidates seemed worse for wear. Obama, showing muted energy, talked wistfully of having less than two hours to buy a Christmas tree and trim it with his two young daughters. He raised the question of whether the personal sacrifice of campaigning was worth it -- without answering his own query."
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN : The New York Times profiles Biden, looking at his nothing-left-to-lose attitude. "Looking back, Mr. Biden said he had learned something different from each of the three crises in his life. The accident taught him, he said, ‘to always let the people you love know you love them, and never let something go unsaid.’ The aneurysm taught him that ‘it’s a hell of a lot easier being on the operating table than in the waiting room.’ As for the 1987 race, Mr. Biden said he learned that he could pull himself back up after the crippling experience of having his character questioned, ‘particularly when it’s your own fault.’” CLINTON : The top story in the New Hampshire Union Leader is the resignation of Bill Shaheen from the Clinton campaign after charging that Obama’s teenage drug use would be a problem in the general election. The paper points out that this comes as “Polling has shown Clinton's once-huge lead diminish to single digits in the last weeks of the New Hampshire presidential primary campaign. One poll this week showed Obama slightly ahead.” More: “The fact that he resigned so quickly may stem the bleeding a bit, but they've still got some work to do to offset the negative perception,” said Andrew Smith, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire.” Daily News he heard from black Clinton backers who told her an apology was in order. ‘I can confirm that one or two people did talk to her,’ he said.”
A New York Times analysis wonders if the Clinton campaign really apologized if its chief strategist continues to say the word “cocaine.”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI : With the candidate sort of disappearing from the main storyline in the GOP narrative, word comes that Giuliani plans to deliver a re-launch of sorts on Saturday. “‘This will be a closing statement of why he wants to be president,’ said a senior Giuliani adviser familiar with the speech. The broad goal, according to the adviser, is to define ‘what will America be like after a Giuliani presidency.’” Adds the Washington Post's Cillizza : "For much of the campaign to date, Giuliani has talked almost exclusively about his record as mayor of New York as opposed to what he would do as president. Saturday's speech will change that, his advisers argue, with a speech that will carry the tagline: ‘Tested. Ready. Now.’”
“The locale and timing of the speech send a signal of their own. Giuliani will deliver the speech in Tampa, Florida, a not so subtle symbol of the importance of the state to Giuliani's path the to the nomination. The Sunshine State and its Jan. 29 presidential primary has long been seen as Giuliani's firewall as poll after poll shows him with wide leads over all of his potential rivals." National Journal that Giuliani once touted his support of gay rights. But: "Now that Giuliani is a candidate for the Republican nomination for president, the religious conservatives who protest the parade are his target audience, and Giuliani's self-described strong record on gay rights has receded into the background."
CONTINUED >>
Mark your calendars: On January. 15, MSNBC will air the first post-New Hampshire Dem debate. The Nevada Democratic Party will partner with the U.S. Hispanic Chamber of Commerce and IMPACTO, 100 Black Men of America, and the College of Southern Nevada to hold the second Democratic presidential debate in Las Vegas.
A new Research 2000 New Hampshire primary poll , conducted for the Concord Monitor, mirrors the CNN/WMUR poll from earlier this week. Just one point separates Obama and Clinton, though in this new poll, it's Obama who comes out on the high side, leading Clinton 32%-31% -- with Edwards at 18%. The poll assumes a Dem-to-indie split of 63-37%. Among Democrats, Clinton leads, 36%-27%. Among independents, Obama leads 40%-23%. So the electorate's makeup matters A LOT. The pollster also matched up Clinton and Obama in a two-way race and found Obama leading 45%-41%. In a two-way between Clinton and Edwards, Clinton led 47%-41%. And in a two-way between Obama and Edwards, Obama led 46%-39%.
At 10:50 am ET, NBC’s John Yang report, President Bush will make a statement in the Rose Garden with his Cabinet after his final Cabinet meeting of the year. The statement, he is told, will be a continuation of Bush’s assault on what he calls the "do-nothing" Congress, as lawmakers hear the siren song of jet engines warming up to take them on their holiday recess.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama adviser David Axelrod said that Obama had told Clinton today that "leadership came from the top" in regards to negative attacks and campaigning.
Axelrod said that the two senators spoke for about 10 minutes today, during which Clinton apologized for the comments made by her New Hampshire co-chair Billy Shaheen , who told the Washington Post that Obama's past cocaine use would make him vulnerable to GOP attacks. "Senator Obama expressed to Senator Clinton it's important for campaigns to send a signal from the top as to what type of campaign they want to run. If you send a signal that negative campaigning is the fun part of campaigns and treat it as a sport, then you are sending a signal down the line that it's all okay. They have to decide if they want to send a different signal and certainly by asking Mr. Shaheen to leave that would be a different signal," Axelrod said.
Axelrod went on to say that leadership in campaigns "flowed from the top down," and Clinton's previous comments that the "fun starts" when candidates begin to attack each other set a tone that allowing negative attacks were okay.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum started out as favored, at one point having the opportunity to answer six questions with the rest of the candidates only having two or three. In the end, the candidates received a similar amount of questions (12 to 14). Richardson, however, did have the most speaking time overall.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Biden's less-than-politically-correct statements in the past, Senate colleague -- and Biden BFF -- Chris Dodd leapt to Biden's defense. "I thought that was a harsh question of Joe," he said, adding that it was "inappropriate" to ask again about something that Biden has addressed in the past. "The last thing you associate with Joe Biden is racism," he insisted. Elizabeth Edwards , for her part, thought that the short stick in the debate went to Dodd, who endured questioning about a sore spot in his father's past. (Dodd's father was censured by the Senate in 1967 after it was revealed that he had diverted over $100,000 in campaign funds into a personal account.)
"This is politics," he told reporters. "Get ready for it. If you can't take that question here, you're not ready to be president."
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Richardson -- 14:40, during 14 questions
Obama -- 12:35, during 13 questions
Edwards -- 10:49, during 12 questions
Biden -- 10:29, during 12 questions
Clinton -- 10:18, during 13 questions
Dodd -- 10:04, during 13 questions
From NBC’s Pete Williams Joshua Bolten , White House chief of staff, and former top aid Karl Rove be found in contempt of Congress.
The committee voted 12-7 to send the contempt issue to the full Senate. The votes follow refusals by Bolten and Rove to comply with committee subpoenas for documents and testimony about the fired US attorneys. The White House has asserted executive privilege for both of them.
Two Republicans, Arlen Specter and Charles Grassley , joined the committee Democrats in the contempt vote. Today's action means contempt citations are now pending in both the House and Senate. The House Judiciary Committee has recommended finding Bolten and former counsel Harriet Miers in contempt.
If either the full House or Senate vote to cite Rove, Bolten, or Miers for contempt, that would send the question to the Justice Department and, ultimately, to court, beginning a process that would very likely take at least two years to resolve.
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike and NBC's Bethany Thomas Romney said today. "These athletes take a larger-than-life aspect for our young people, and to have them using illegal substances opens the mental pathway for a lot of our kids to do the same. And that’s a very damaging and dangerous thing, and it’s very, very disappointing."
And Romney was quick to add his experience heading up the 2002 Winter Olympics. "The Olympics has been battling of course against performance-enhancing drugs from the very beginning, from the outset. And in our games, we took a whole new standard. In Salt Lake City, we decided that we were going to insist that every athlete that came to Salt Lake City would be subject to a random drug test before they got there."
Said McCain , "It's now time for the Major League players to step forward and accept meaningful restrictions, as well as punishments, if any of them are found guilty of using these performance enhancing substances. It's time now for the players' union to step forward and save the game and the reputation of the game and cooperate with meaningful tough punishment and procedures."
From NBC’s Mike Viqueira Nancy Pelosi .
"This is what is possible. This isn't about caving," Pelosi said this morning. She portrays the stands that she had taken earlier as "a high water mark," essentially a bargaining position.
But oaths had been sworn, vows were taken and lines were drawn in the sand. Pelosi had promised that there would be no more war funding passed by the House beyond the $50 billion with strings attached that they sent over to the Senate pre-Thanksgiving. Now it appears that Democrats have agreed to send the president $70 billion of the $196 billion that he has asked for.
"The assumption that I made...that Republicans would see the light...was an inaccurate one," she allowed. Pelosi says that she will vote against it after allowing it on the floor.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ Athena Jones Bill Shaheen is stepping down as a co-chair from the Clinton campaign, Clinton spokewoman Mo Elleithee. Shaheen had become embroiled in a controversy when he said that Obama's past drug use could become an issue in a general election.
"It'll be, 'When was the last time? Did you ever give drugs to anyone? Did you sell them to anyone?'" Shaheen said. "There are so many openings for Republican dirty tricks. It's hard to overcome.
Shaheen's wife, Jeanne, is the former governor of New Hampshire and is running for Senate in 2008.
"I would like to reiterate that I deeply regret my comments yesterday and say again that they were in no way authorized by Senator Clinton or the Clinton campaign," Shaheen said in a statement. "Senator Clinton has been running a positive campaign focused on the issues that matter to America's families.
*** UPDATE *** NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan reports that Obama strategist David Axelrod just said in the spin room that at meeting between Obama and Clinton, Obama said that leadership on negative attacks has to come from the top down.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Andrea Mitchell
As Clinton laughed and said, "I want to hear that" (meaning his response), Obama scored by saying: "Well, Hillary, I'm looking forward to having you as an advisor as well." He added, "I want to gather up talent from everywhere.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Clinton invoked the somewhat bizarre idiom "working like a Trojan" in praising Senate colleague Tom Harkin , most made a mature effort to keep their chuckles under their breath. But when Clinton leveled the debate's big "Ouch" moment so far -- that some candidates think change can be acheived "by hoping for it" -- a low hoot rose from the press file like a classroom of chiding the child called to the principal's office. (Can I hear an "Oh-No-She-DIDN'T" ?)
Then, overheard in the press file when Biden opened his mouth to respond to Washburn's question about race? "Oh, no." Journalists uttered a few sympathetic mumbles and braced themselves for a possible stumble; the press seems to have a soft spot for the wordy senator despite his tendency for political incorrectness. He certainly earned some giggles and eye-rolls for invoking the image of Indian families opening "Dunkin' Donuts," but Obama's jump to "provide some testimony" as to Biden's record earned some murmurs of interest and approval too.
From NBC's Chuck Todd I have to admit, I can't sit here and say, "this person won" or "this person lost." It was very similar to yesterday where the format basically prevented any back-n-forths; The mood was chipper on that stage and that kept everyone comfortable.
Perhaps no one benefitted more from this subdued format than Obama since he's the guy with the momentum. Clinton, oddly, didn't get as much time in this debate (or forum) than she has in previous ones which may lead some to believe she was not at her best. But she had plenty of good moments, just not enough air time. (Can't believe I'm saying this about a Clinton that they didn't get airtime at a debate!) Obama did get the YouTube moment with the shot back at Hillary on Clinton advisers.
All of the candidates seemed overly prepared with this debate as if they got all of the questions in advance (oh, wait, in some cases they did!).
Biden, as usual, came across very well, if anything, though, he was too emotional (which isn't always presidential).
Edwards seemed to do a good job of talking to Iowans specifically; he strikes me as being the John Edwards of late 2003; Could he be on a similar comeback trail that he experienced in '03 in Iowa? Time will tell.
Dodd and Richardson clearly were the favorites of the moderator and that may help them if plenty of Iowans watch this debate today and tonight.
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- Unlike yesterday's GOP debate, there were at least two exchanges/statements that made news at today's Dem debate. The first was when Hillary made digs at Obama and Edwards on bringing about change. And the other was when Obama was asked the question -- about whether he can bring change in foreign affairs when he has many Clinton Administration officials advising him -- and he turned the question around to the Iraq war and his opposition to it.
So reporters don't have to wait for post-debate spin to get their leads -- like they had to yesterday.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller DES MOINES, Iowa -- Surprisingly, Edwards only glossed over his plan to pass a universal health care plan by July of 2009 in his response about what he would realistically accomplish in his first year in office. The plan to get universal health care passed by threatening to withdraw the health insurance of members of Congress and the Cabinet if it's not passed within the first six months has come under fire from rival campaigns and questioners at town halls. Ads in Iowa and New Hampshire have touted the tough git-'er-done legislation, and rarely a town hall goes by that it doesn't get mentioned. In his response Edwards did mention ending the war, closing Guantanamo and restoring civil liberties; he ended his list with beginning the fight for universal health care.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Obama looked genuinely stumped by that question from the moderator regarding all of the Clinton advisers he has on his team and wondering if that was truly a "break from the past." It was actually an interesting question, which he dodged, but Obama won the moment when Hillary was heard, "I can't wait for this answer," and he jabbed, "I look forward to you advising me too." Obama has YouTube moment.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Obama had a good political moment, coming to his support, looked like a leader and made an appeal to the African American community, saying he'd offer up "testimony."
From NBC's Chuck Todd
What the heck was that softball for Dodd? Wow, compare the supposed tough question Dodd got vs. what Clinton, Biden and Edwards have been asked during this round of semi-tough character questions. Is there a new frontrunner for the Register endorsement?
From NBC's Chuck Todd Biden handled that race question incredibly well. And Obama sticking up for him was smart politics on his part. Can someone say, "second choice"?
From NBC's Chuck Todd Clinton sort of dodged the openness the question; didn't address the records issue with her husband's library. She pivoted nicely though from admitting she didn't do things the right way with health care and she learned from it. She showed some humility; probably played well to Iowans.
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- On the character and leadership questions, Hillary was asked about the secrecy of her health-care efforts in the 1990s (she said she learned from the experience); Biden was asked about some racially insensitive things he has said (he stressed his commitment to civil rights, and Obama even gave him a testimonial); and Dodd was asked about his father's censure by the Senate.
Why didn't the Republicans get these kind of questions yesterday? They're good (and obvious) ones.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
CORRECTION: The Obama campaign has pointed out that the Senator did say he would give the Joint Chiefs of Staff a new mission in Iraq in his first year in office, which they argue would be to end the Iraq War.. Obama's plan for withdrawing troops of Iraq says that one two combat brigades will be withdrawn from the country over the period of sixteen months. Troops would be left behind to protect humanitarian forces on the ground, the American embassies and possibly for counter-terrorism purposes.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Nothing like an open-book exam. Obama seemed incredibly prepared for the question about what he'd accomplish in his first year; perhaps the most prepared he's ever sounded for a single question yet in a debate. Clearly, the Obama folks watched yesterday's Republican debate and took notes of the questions that would be asked. Frankly, all of the candidates seem VERY prepared. This is what makes this format a joke; not fair to the Republican candidates who actually didn't get to see the questions in advance.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro The Dodd campaign just sent out an oppo doc hit on Edwards, entitled, "Fact Check: Edwards on 'Fighting' for Working Families." It then ticks off several votes by Edwards when he was in the Senate.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Hillary Clinton just made mention that her daughter was in the audience with her. Is this part of the new rollout of Clinton that started earlier today with the release of the TV ad featuring Clinton's mother? Will we see more Chelsea and Dorothy Rodham and less Bill?
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan I have lost count how many times I have heard about the new wind turbine plant at Keokuk, which Obama cites all the time as an example of how going green can be profitable. And Obama's line about the room going really quiet when he spoke to the automakers in Detroit? It's hard to believe that people still find that funny... Maybe it's just me, since I've heard it so often.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Interesting to hear Bill Richardson echo Mike Huckabee on pushing for the arts in education. Both, I'm guessing, are frontrunners for the Register's endorsement...
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- The press in the filing center just woke up when Hillary made a thinly veiled swipe about Edwards and Obama. She said in her 30-second statement that everyone in the race is talking about change -- some believe you get it by demanding it; others believe you get it by hoping for it. (Ouch.)
She promised to get change by working hard for it.
The first punch of the day.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Clinton just used the "when I'm president" line again.
NBC/NJ's Athena Jones noted earlier that she used the phrase in the debate. Is she trying to sound inevitable again?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Obama and Edwards chose not to take any shots -- subtle or otherwise -- at Clinton. She went right for the thinly veiled swipes. Smiling, Clinton said directly that the candidates on the stage want change. She said "some believe you get change by demanding it" (Edwards), some by "hoping for it" (zing, Obama). "I believe you do it by working hard," she said. She then cited issues she's focusing on, including health care and then implored Iowans to vote for her. "Stand up for me," she said, "and I’ll stand up for you."
How will her swipes play? Does she think Iowans won't pick up on that?
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller DES MOINES, Iowa -- In his response on trade,
Edwards mentioned Doug Bishop. Bishop, an Edwards supporter who lost his job at the Maytag plant that later closed in Newton, has become famous on the campaign trail almost in the way James Lowe has (see
Edwards speech on trade ). Lowe is the man Edwards met on his poverty tour who couldn't get his cleft palate fixed -- and therefore couldn't speak -- until he was 50 years old because he didn't have health insurance to pay for the surgery. Edwards uses him to illustrate why he thinks universal health care is a necessity.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann DES MOINES, IOWA -- Edwards named the closing of the Maytag plant in Newton as the ultimate illustration of how corporate America is hurting the middle class. It was an emotional and much-publicized event for plant workers here in Iowa, prompting cathartic displays such as the public demolition of a washing machine. Edwards visited Newton, Iowa, the week of the plant's closing. The crowd hit hardest by the factory buyout is the one with which Edwards' anti-corporate populism resonates the most. He knows his Iowa audience.
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- The debate has really turned into free TV ads for these candidates. On energy, Obama talks about going to Detroit to give his speech on fuel efficiency; Dodd talks about his advocacy for a carbon tax; and Hillary remarks about her cap-and-trade proposal. Without any challenges or rebuttals to their messages, this is free advertising...
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton was asked about NAFTA, she said, “It should be changed.” She said she's for "smart, pro-American trade."
The moderator gave Obama an opening to go after Clinton by asking him what he thought of that. He could have invoked the 1990s and that Bill Clinton pushed for NAFTA following her statement. But he demurred.
Obama: "There’s no doubt that NAFTA needs to be amended." He then pivoted to problems with how Republicans are handling trade.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan "The fierce urgency of now" has become
Obama's latest catch phrase on the campaign trail, even rivaling the "Fired Up! Ready to Go!" chant. The phrase goes well with Obama's stump, in which he argues that the next president of the United States needs "a little bit of impatience," which will help push him or her to get things done. The implication is that Obama is the one who's chomping at the bit, impatient and anxious to make that change happen. The phrase helps deliver the idea that despite having less experience than the other candidates in the Democratic race, Obama feels more compelled to actually pass major legislation like universal healthcare, etc.
From NBC's Chuck Todd Interesting decision by Richardson to focus his free 30 sec statement on Iraq. Because, of late, the Democratic frontrunners have been focused more on domestic issues, leaving the Iraq issue alone. Of course, polls are showing a rise in concern by voters with the economy, but if just 20% of Iowa Democrats want a candidate to be focused more on the war than any other issue, then maybe Richardson will find a niche.
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- How bad does Bill Richardson want Iowa votes? He just used his 30-second statement to "thank" the people of Iowa. And he used his time to discuss an issue that won't be talked about much today: Iraq.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Biden took first implicit shots, echoing his closing ad. Not about "experience" and "change." It's about action, the title of the ad. First time I've heard Biden speak on religion unprompted also -- a last ditch hope that Iowa Catholics will support him?
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller
DES MOINES, Iowa -- "What makes America America is what's at stake [in this election]," Edwards said in his opening statement. Again, he emphasized a cause everyone can get behind - fighting corporate greed in the nation's capital - while refraining from attacking his opponents. In this debate and the three weeks leading up to the caucus, will we see Edwards on the attack the way he has been the last couple months, or can we expect to see exclusively the optimistic Edwards Iowans fell in love with four years ago?
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Richardson and Dodd are in the center of the stage, with Obama and Clinton on the ends. And after an initial count of questions:
Richardson - 6
Obama - 3
Biden - 3
Dodd - 3
Clinton - 3
Edwards - 2
From NBC's Chuck Todd Chris Dodd drops Harkin's name; pretty good pander that should go over well with the state's Democratic senator (who, btw, is sitting on the sidelines since he's up for re-election in '08).
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Richardson sure is getting preferential treatment during the beginning of this debate. He is answering his fourth question while the rest of the candidates have only answered two so far.
NBC's Chuck Todd : "That's why there's strong speculation in Iowa that Richardson is the frontrunner for the coveted Des Moines Register endorsement."
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- As expected, this is going to be a cordial affair. Example: On Social Security, Clinton didn't take a swipe at Obama (when she talked about SS being a longer-term problem. And when Obama got to talk on entitlements, he passed at making a dig at Hillary. We've come a long way since Philly... of course, the format isn't conducive to back-and-forths.
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- The second question from the moderator is China and its impact on the US debt. Anyone having flashbacks to the NPR debate???
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones
NBC's Domenico Montanaro adds that Clinton also used the "trap door" reference in an ad entitled just that. It began airing in October in New Hampshire and Iowa. Iowans are likely to be familiar with her saying that, since she uses it on the stump and they see her often on TV.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller DES MOINES, Iowa -- The balancing the budget question is one
Edwards gets often on the trail, and his answer today was the same. You can hear the overtones of the implied "Two Americas" rhetoric as he blames budget problems on "structural deficiencies" and strives for policies that would "strengthen and grow the middle class" after he has rooted out corporate power and greed overwhelming the government. His answer on tax policy in America also falls along those same lines. His solutions to funding new or expanded programs often includes rolling back tax breaks for those who make at least $200,000 (while leaving current tax rates for the middle class alone).
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- And given the format, it's not surprising. On the first question -- the balancing the budget and the economy -- richardson cited his gubernatorial experience; Edwards talked about power being in corporate and greedy hands; Hillary harked back to the economy of the 1990s.
From NBC's Chuck Todd In case folks are wondering, MSNBC is pre-empting the debate for the George Mitchell steroids report; MSNBC will be airing the debate in its entirety beginning at 3:30pm; we'll be live-blogging the debate as usual in real time. But, seriously, El Guapo? Steroids? Say it ain't so, guapo?
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Thought this was appropriate since there's a Democratic debate going on...The liberal blog Daily Kos held its straw poll and Edwards holds onto his lead among Kos readers. But check out not only that this month Markos Moulitsas, aka kos, voted for Obama, but his his comments and overall frustration with the field in general:
I voted 'Obama' this time, not necessarily because I support him, but because the alternatives are no good. Hillary? Yeah right. Edwards? If he hadn't taken public financing, I'd probably go for him (and who doesn't have a crush on Elizabeth?). But I refuse to vote for a guy who will be broke for about seven months in 2008 while the other side beats the crap out of him. I know his partisans have convinced themselves that this doesn't just not matter, but that it's a good thing! Good for them, I guess.
"That doesn't mean I think Obama walks on water. Far from it. The guy is going around idiotically attacking Paul Krugman, dancing with homophobic preachers, and while his rhetoric is beautiful upon first listening, an hour later you're left wondering if he said anything of substance at all (and the answer is usually 'no').
"But this became 'process of elimination' for me. I don't 'support' Obama, I just plan on voting for him.
"And at the end, I'll just be excited to bid adieu to the primary wars and get enthusiastically behind whoever wins, wether it's Obama, Edwards, or Clinton."
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Do the Democrats differ on how to handle the economy or is this going to be a Bush-Cheney slam fest?
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- Per moderator Carolyn Washburn, it looks like the debate will avoid issues like Iraq and immigration...
Indeed, same question starts it off: balancing the budget.
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney stressed his record of fiscal conservatism with an ever-evolving and graphically improving PowerPoint presentation on fiscal issues, he acknowledged that he is now an underdog in Iowa and called Huckabee the front-runner.
“In New Hampshire, I’m in a stronger position there -- it depends on the state, but in this state right here, based on what we’re seeing, yeah, he’s the guy in front,” he told reporters.
He also expanded his attacks on the former Arkansas governor to include Huckabee’s record on crime – new to the mix of issues for criticism in public appearances.
“I think as people look at the pardons and commutations -- over 1,000 pardons and commutations, 12 murderers being pardoned,” Romney said incredulously, then added, “I think people in Iowa will say that’s unacceptable.” He went on to describe his own record and said that “the number of pardons and commutations I gave was zero.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- Like yesterday, we'll be liveblogging the Des Moines Register debate. I'm here at the press filing center, while Chuck and Domenico are in DC. Hopefully, there will be some news.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Clinton is going up in Iowa today with an ad that could be deemed her re-launch. And she’s bringing out -- her mom. A smiling Dorothy Rodham, who campaigned with her daughter (and granddaughter Chelsea) in the Hawkeye State this week, looks into the camera and stresses Clinton’s softer side. As wispy guitar music strums in the background, Clinton’s mother calls her daughter a “good person,” who “was never envious of anybody.” She calls her “helpful” and touts her “empathy for other people's unfortunate circumstances.”
With polls showing voters believe Obama is more likeable and trustworthy, is the Clinton campaign trying to counter stereotypes of Hillary as cold and calculating? Bill Clinton was on the stump this week also dismissing those notions, touting her humility and that running for public office wasn’t something she’d always aspired to.
The 30-second spot begins airing in Iowa today.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Clinton New Hampshire spokeswoman Kathleen Strand says Clinton has apologized to Obama personally for Bill Shaheen's comments that Obama's past drug use could be used against him by Republicans in a general election:
"Sen. Clinton personally apologized to Sen. Obama this morning, and reiterated that this was not anything that came from the campaign or that we condone."
At an Obama camp presser in New Hampshire, essentially, they said Billy Shaheen's comment was part a pattern of remarks coming from the campaign, and that negative attacks won't stand.
At this time, the Clinton campaign says it isn't planning any response to the Obama event, but that could change. And, Shaheen, the campaign says, will be unavailable for comment.
*** UPDATE ***
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike If anything is certain about the GOP presidential primary, it’s that Romney really, really wants to win Iowa. Desperately.Howard Dean’s scream speech nearly four years ago. CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Huckabee was asked on MSNBC’s Morning Joe for his reaction to the New York Post’s front-page story with the banner headline, “I Hucked Up! ” referring to Huckabee’s comments and ensuing apology about Romney’s faith.
“It was never my intention to denigrate his faith,” Huckabee said. “I raised it not to create a story. I thought we were having a simple casual conversation.”
The reporter, Huckabee said, seemed to know more about Mormonism than he did and raised the question.
Huckabee said he apologized to Romney after the Des Moines Register debate and told him, (1) “I apologize because I know that was hurtful to him, and I did not want to do that” and (2) “I don’t think his Mormon faith should have anything to do with him being elected.”
Huckabee then, though immediately pivoted and took a swipe at Romney, saying he’s running a negative campaign. “We run a positive campaign, more so frankly than Mitt, who’s running ads against me and dropping fliers in Iowa,” he said.
From NBC’s Ken Strickland
The first vote is on an amendment to the Farm Bill, which is an important issue in Iowa. Obviously, the state holds its caucus in a few weeks and will host a Democratic presidential debate later today. The bipartisan measure would cap federal farm programs: for individuals it would be $250,000 per year. Supporters say, if passed, it would eliminate multi-million dollar payouts to giant corporate farms and payments to those who own farm land, but "haven't been near a farm in decades."
The other vote immediately following is on a revamped energy bill. While it dramatically increases fuel efficiency standards for cars, it rolls back significant tax breaks for the major oil companies, thereby creating a tax increase. Those tax provisions have drawn a veto threat from the White House.
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli Obama /Oprah show left town Sunday night. And no one is scheduled to be here until Friday, when Richardson and Huckabee (with Chuck Norris) return to the state. That’s a full four days where not one major candidate from either party, not even Alan Keyes , was here. All with less than a month to go until the primary. Edwards , who returns here next week, may come back just one more time after that. Dodd hasn’t visited the state since Nov. 3, and there’s no sign he’ll be back at all. And Thompson’s campaign all but wrote off the state entirely, telling the Union Leader this week that they’re not even sure he’ll be here after the caucuses. CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro DES MOINES, IA -- Exactly three week until the Iowa caucuses… The headline in yesterday’s Des Moines Register -- “Last debates could have ‘seismic’ impact” -- was quite a billing. But the only thing that turned out to be seismic in Wednesday’s Register/Iowa Public Television GOP debate was the level of Alan Keyes’ tone and absurdity. If the format for today’s Democratic debate is similar to yesterday’s -- same questions to all candidates, little encouragement of back-and-forths over recent news, few “gotcha’ questions -- then we’re pretty sure the amount of news it will produce will equal what came out yesterday: zilch. (Even if the format changes, what will be the bigger story today: the last Democratic debate or the baseball steroids report that’s being released at the same time? Can someone say split screen...) Such a situation would greatly benefit Obama who, like Huckabee yesterday, has big momentum heading into Iowa but also more scrutiny. That said, Clinton has flourished in events billed as debates but that were really forums/discussions. Remember the Tavis Smiley debate/forum last spring?
*** Take two: The 90-minute Democratic debate -- minus Gravel and Kucinich -- begins at 2:00 pm ET. As it was yesterday, it's hosted by the Des Moines Register and Iowa Public Television, and it's moderated by Carolyn Washburn, the Register's editor. Nearly a month has passed since the last Democratic debate (the rowdy affair in Las Vegas). And it comes as Obama finds himself in a statistical tie with Clinton in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina; as Clinton and her campaign have ramped up their criticism of Obama (over everything from health care and electability to suggestions about the Illinois senator’s past cocaine use); and as Edwards has started to revert to the Mr. Nice Guy he was in 2003-4.
*** Yesterday’s winners and losers: So who won yesterday’s GOP debate? Well, it was an opportunity for the field to slow down Huckabee after his surge in the polls, but the format didn't allow for it (the moderator, in fact, ignored Tancredo trying to hit Huck on immigration). So on that score, we guess that Huckabee was the winner. He was very careful to look presidential and sounded a whole lot like Obama in taking about unity. The other candidate who had a solid afternoon was Thompson, who stood out when he spoke -- which hasn’t always been the case for him in the last few months. It was easily his best debate performance, and he seemed to shine in the subdued format. Romney also had his moments, but as he now tries to catch Huckabee in Iowa, he never really had the the opportunity at the debate. The loser? Iowans and the Iowa Republican Party. Alan Keyes simply ruined the debate and took attention away from the candidates who actually have a chance to win the caucuses. By the way, where's Rudy? He was off to the side physically in yesterday's debate -- and being off to the side is very much where Giuliani seems to be these days in the campaign narrative. With his numbers dropping, even in places like New Jersey, can Giuliani afford to be on the narrative sidelines until New Hampshire or later?
*** The real news: The big news on the GOP side was not the debate, but Huckabee's apology to Romney. Huckabee, who still doesn't know how to say no to TV bookers, went on multiple platforms to let folks know he apologized to Romney for the Jesus-Satan comment. Interestingly, on Morning Joe today, Huckabee pivoted a bit: “It was never my intention to denigrate his faith,” Huckabee said. “I raised it not to create a story. I thought we were having a simple casual conversation.” He said he apologized to Romney after the Des Moines Register debate and told him, (1) “I apologize because I know that was hurtful to him, and I did not want to do that” and (2) “I don’t think his Mormon faith should have anything to do with him being elected.” Huckabee then though immediately took a swipe at Romney, saying he’s running a negative campaign. “We run a positive campaign, more so frankly than Mitt, who’s running ads against me and dropping fliers in Iowa,” he said
*** Cue the Eric Clapton song: Yesterday, we wrote that it looks like the pressure is getting to Team Clinton. Well, New Hampshire co-chair Billy Shaheen (husband of 2008 Senate candidate Jeanne Shaheen) talking up Obama’s past cocaine use as a teenager (something Obama admitted himself) yesterday isn’t going to stop that narrative. According to the Washington Post , “Shaheen said Obama's candor on the subject would ‘open the door’ to further questions. ‘It'll be, “When was the last time? Did you ever give drugs to anyone? Did you sell them to anyone?”’” Shaheen later said he regretted saying those things, but the damage was done. It doesn't help the Clinton cause that one day before Shaheen's comments, Tom Edsall wrote a piece claiming the Clinton camp was quietly talking up the drug story. Shaheen's freelancing only seems to add to this notion that the Clinton team is off its game. A few follow-up stories from yesterday's shakeup talk: James Carville goes on the record saying something will change as far as staff "moving around,” and someone in Clintonland fingers Mark Penn in Newsday today for the problems.
*** Where have all the candidates gone? Per New Hampshire-based Mike Memoli of NBC/NJ: A little over a month ago, December 11 was being floated as a possible date for the New Hampshire primary. To the relief of many, Secretary of State Bill Gardner kept the primary in 2008 -- choosing January 8. That left a five-day gap between Iowa and New Hampshire’s nominating contests, the shortest gap in history. For those wondering what impact the compressed calendar would have, consider this: December 11 came and went without a single candidate event here. In fact, there hasn’t been a candidate in the state since the Obama/Oprah show left town Sunday night. And no one is scheduled to be here until Friday, when Bill Richardson and Mike Huckabee (with Chuck Norris) return to the state. That’s a full four days where not one major candidate from either party, not even Alan Keyes, was here. All with less than a month to go until the primary…
*** A final thought: How's the money situation for the campaigns? Anyone wonder if Clinton and Obama, who are in a massive spending war in Iowa and New Hampshire right now, are finding themselves having to focus more time fundraising this month than they planned? And what about Giuliani, Huckabee, Thompson, and McCain? Is Romney's spending forcing those guys to be on the fundraising trail too much this month as well?
*** On the trail: The Democrats all go stumping after the debate: Biden, staying in Des Moines, speaks to Polk County Democrats Central Committee Meeting; Clinton heads to Shenandoah, IA; Dodd travels to Grinnell and Story City; Edwards visits Indianola, IA; and Obama goes to Dubuque and Maquoketa. On the GOP side, Giuliani campaigns in Oklahoma City; McCain and Romney remain in Iowa; and Paul heads to Reno, NV.
Countdown to Iowa: 21 days
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The debate was so newsless that the Los Angeles Times lead is on the apology Huckabee offered to Romney AFTER the debate regarding his comment about Jesus and Satan and the Mormon faith.
The New York Times called it a "sleepy affair." "The candidates largely stuck to their talking points, which allowed Mr. Huckabee, a former preacher, to showcase his folksy aphorisms."
The Washington Post says it was a "lifeless debate." More: “Former senator Fred D. Thompson (Ten.), who has struggled as a candidate, sought to nudge back into contention with one of his better performances at the debate after pledging this week to campaign ‘nonstop’ in Iowa until the state's Jan. 3 caucuses. But overall, the debate seemed to do little to change the Romney-Huckabee dynamic in the nation's first caucuses.”
The Politico's Martin : "It was a typical if not necessarily spectacular Huckabee performance. But without his two top rivals here training their guns on him and with the inexplicable and antic presence of Alan Keyes offering a diversion, typical was enough."
CONTINUED >>
For some inexplicable reason, Dennis Kucinich did NOT meet the Des Moines Register’s qualifications for inclusion in today's debate but Alan Keyes did. Go figure. Here's the Kucinich explanation .
Video: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on whether or not the Democrats will play it safe in today's Iowa debate. Speaking in New Jersey last night, Bill Clinton once again continuously repeated his argument that his wife is the true “agent of change” in the Democratic presidential field, NBC’s Andy Merten notes. But Clinton also provided a more candid glimpse of her campaign by detailing some of the challenges the organization has faced in Iowa. “Of all the states in the country, Iowa’s the most challenging one for her to start,” he said during an appearance with singer Tony Bennett and Gov. Jon Corzine in New Brunswick. “Senator Edwards has worked hard there for seven years -- he did very well there four years ago, and has been to all the counties once.” He added, Senator Obama is from a neighboring state, has had television exposure there for years, and there are thousands of Illinois students who go to school there.”
Speaking of the Hawkeye State, the Washington Post delves into the Clinton camp's worries about Iowa. "When senior advisers to Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton awakened to the fact that they faced a serious problem in Iowa, they knew they needed a summit. For the divided staff, the question was where. It made sense to fly to Iowa, where support for Clinton (N.Y.) was flagging and her aides were scrambling to make up ground. But a key member of her inner circle, Harold Ickes, warned that a crowd of Arlington-based operatives descending on the Plains en masse might set off alarm bells, triggering ‘campaign in panic mode’ stories, according to two people with inside knowledge of the Clinton operation."
CONTINUED >>
Time's Duffy looks at the GOP field and notes how no one is stepping up. And he wonders if it says more about the state of the party in general. "Still, it is hard to overestimate the moral and intellectual power outage that now darkens the GOP. Long out of step with a majority of voters on such secondary issues as outlawing abortion and narrowing stem-cell research, Republicans have more recently managed to get themselves on the wrong side of popular trends on what were once old reliables: foreign policy, economics, energy, even health care."
GIULIANI: Politico's Smith and Martin wonder if Giuliani's fall in the polls, particularly in the early states, has something to do with the fall of Clinton's numbers.
After yesterday's "debate," Giuliani sat down with the Des Moines Register's editorial board. The paper's story on the meeting led with Giuliani's call for the GOP to get involved in the climate change issue. "Giuliani said his solution to the problem would be similar to others he proposes to deal with urgent issues: He would use government incentives instead of mandates. Rather than capping trade or punishing American companies, he said, he would offer government incentives to encourage energy independence and to promote cleaner coal, nuclear power and greener alternatives such as hydroelectric, wind and solar power."
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: On Nightly News last night, NBC’s Andrea Mitchell reported on Clinton and her experience argument. “Her chief argument against Barack Obama has been that she has the experience to get things done. What was her experience as first lady? The record is mixed. She had huge influence -- but was widely blamed for a health care proposal so secretive (and complex) it died at birth.” More: “Supporters say she's learned since that setback. And, the campaign claims, she played a major role in her husband's foreign policy.” Watch it here.
So is the Clinton camp in such disarray that state operatives are now freelancing? That's one way one can interpret the decision by Clinton New Hampshire co-chair Billy Shaheen to talk up Obama's drug past. “The remarks represented the most direct criticism by a top official in the Clinton campaign. A Clinton spokesman, Phil Singer, said, ‘These comments were not authorized or condoned by the campaign in any way.’ Mr. Singer would not say whether the campaign distanced itself from the remarks or if Mr. Shaheen would be reprimanded.”
“In a statement later, Mr. Shaheen said, ‘I deeply regret the comments I made today, and they were not authorized by the campaign in any way.’”
Newsday's “campaign angst” story focuses on the campaign's message man, Mark Penn. “With Clinton barely holding her own against Barack Obama and John Edwards in Iowa, dissatisfaction is growing with Penn, who some say has mistakenly run Clinton as a de facto incumbent. ‘There are two people who have come up with this strategy -- one Hillary Clinton and one Mark Penn,’ said a top Clinton ally, speaking on condition of anonymity. ‘Mark wanted to run her, basically, for re-election, and we are seeing what happened.’”
CONTINUED >>
The Washington Post front-pages that Democratic House members are blaming their Dem Senate colleagues -- and vice versa -- for their struggles on the Hill. “House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Charles B. Rangel (D-N.Y.) accuses Senate Democratic leaders of developing ‘Stockholm syndrome,’ showing sympathy to their Republican captors by caving in on legislation to provide middle-class tax cuts paid for with tax increases on the super-rich, tying war funding to troop withdrawal timelines, and mandating renewable energy quotas… [Senate Majority Leader Harry] Reid, in turn, has taken to the Senate floor to criticize what he called the speaker's ‘iron hand’ style of governance.”
“Democrats in each chamber are now blaming their colleagues in the other for the mess in which they find themselves. The predicament caused the majority party yesterday surrender to President Bush on domestic spending levels, drop a cherished renewable-energy mandate and move toward leaving a raft of high-profile legislation, from addressing the mortgage crisis to providing middle-class tax relief, undone or incomplete.”
Meanwhile, “President Bush vetoed another children’s health bill on Wednesday, effectively killing Democrats’ hopes of expanding a popular government program aimed at providing insurance to youngsters in lower- and middle-income families,” the New Times says. “The veto is another chapter in the president’s increasingly contentious battle with Congressional Democrats over spending. On Capitol Hill, lawmakers have been trying to wrap up their appropriations work by rolling 11 spending bills into one. Mr. Bush has threatened to veto the major measure, and the Democrats’ plans appeared in flux on Wednesday.
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Romney downplayed Huckabee's recent surge in the polls and suggested it would be followed by an "agonizing reappraisal" of his rival. McCain surge. there was the Giuliani surge. then came the Fred Thompson surge. Now we got the Huckabee surge, and all the surges that have come before were followed by the agonizing reappraisal as people took a look at their positions and their record. And when that happened those numbers came back down."
Romney spoke for a few minutes, after remarks by his wife and former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R). He signed autographs and shook hands with supporters before and after a speech in which he spoke confidently about his performance in the debate and praised the Des Moines Register for asking questions about important issues.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller Edwards again hailed the results of a CNN poll released yesterday that showed him beating each of the top four Republican candidates. He took the opportunity to differentiate himself from the eventual Republican nominee.
After his stump speech, Edwards' first question came from a college student who said he was a Republican and asked why a Republican should support the former North Carolina senator. The candidate told him that he should vote for him if he believes “powerful entrenched interests” have too much power in Washington and assured him that he would tell the American people the truth if he’s elected president.
Edwards also took questions on same-sex marriage, the people he would appoint as Cabinet secretaries, his health-care mandate, how to caucus, the Senate’s energy bill, illegal immigration, global warming, recidivism rates, No Child Left Behind, and public transportation. He avoided answering two questions: whether he would run on the same ticket as Hillary Clinton and who he would vote for if he were not running.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Gov. Rick Perry has been campaigning for
Giuliani after
endorsing him on October 17, but today he had a slip of tongue implying support for
Huckabee , saying the former governor is the best candidate for ending abortion. "The issue becomes very, very clear to me from the standpoint of who I want to support and it is Mike Huckabee." Perry said yesterday while filing papers for Giuliani to participate in the Texas primary. "And it goes to the next level, who do we have that is the most electable of our the candidates, and I think without a doubt it is Rudy Giuliani."
Perry became defensive when reporters then asked him if he thought Huckabee is indeed the best candidate on the abortion issue. While Giuliani has come under fire for his stance on abortion, Perry reiterated he believes Giuliani is the most electable candidate. "I'm sorry," he later replied. "I made an error. Thank you for bringing it to my attention."
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann Alan Keyes faced questions about the legitimacy of his appearance here in Johnston, Iowa.
Mobbed by curious reporters in the spin room, Keyes was downright cantankerous in his responses, blaming the news media's narrow-mindedness in its skepticism of his presidential run.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller Edwards , who traveled the state with folk musicians Bonnie Raitt and Jackson Browne almost a month ago, began Day 3 of his eight-day “Main Street Express” tour with Oscar-winning actor Tim Robbins at the Iowa City Public Library.
“I’m not Oprah ,” Robbins began, prompting laughter from a crowd that overflowed out two doors in the back of the room behind a row of 10 cameras. Robbins spoke for 10 minutes, reading his speech. He asked the crowd what would happen if the media reported on regular people instead of pundits and insisted that this primary is more than a two-person race.
“It might be that John Edwards is pulling even because of his passion for what he believes in,” the actor said. “Maybe it’s his honesty, his integrity. Maybe it’s his wife. Maybe it’s because actions speak louder than words. Whatever it is, there is a third person in this race, and I have a feeling that he’ll be pulling ahead of the other two soon.”
Robbins, who won his Oscar for his supporting role as Dave Boyle in the 2003 drama Mystic River, will also make appearances with Edwards in Grinnell and Des Moines today. Fellow cast member Kevin Bacon will travel with Edwards on Saturday and Sunday. (Another member of the Mystic River cast, Sean Penn , donated to Edwards, but last week endorsed Dennis Kucinich .)
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike JOHNSTON, Iowa -- The buzz in the spin room was that Huckabee called Romney this morning to apologize for his comments to the New York Times Magazine, asking, "Don’t Mormons believe that Jesus and the Devil are brothers?”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum With
Keyes complaining about not having enough time to answer questions and then hijacking the debate, he ended up using more speaking time than the majority of the other candidates. Overall, however, there is not a huge disparity in how many questions Carolyn Washburn asked each candidate, with
Giuliani and
Romney answering 12 questions and Keyes eight. Although
Thompson spoke the least amount of time, he was given 10 questions, including the one he refused to answer with a show of hands.
Giuliani: 9:03 during 12 answers
Huckabee: 8:56 during 11 answers
Romney: 8:52 during 12 answers
Keyes: 7:08 during 8 answers
Tancredo: 6:49 during 10 answers
Hunter: 6:42 during 9 answers
McCain: 6:34 during 9 answers
Paul: 5:36 during 9 answers
Thompson: 5:23 during 10 answers
From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
Beyond the congestion, the biggest news of the spin room was the attention Huckabee manager Chip Saltsman received from the press. A horde of print reporters and TV cameras surrounded the tall and young-looking head of the Huckabee campaign. A couple of respected national reporters even asked, "Who is that?" when looking at the crowd surrounding him. Upon leaving, Saltsman said, "I've got to get back to Little Rock, and figure out how to run this campaign."
Also in the spin room was McCain adviser Charlie Black, who summed up the debate this way: "Nobody laid a hand on Huckabee." Black went on to say that Iowa is a challenge for McCain, who didn't compete in the 2000 Iowa caucuses. As for Keyes, Black said he considers him a friend and is always happy to see him.
Then there was Giuliani manager Mike DuHaime -- who was standing over our work station -- saying that the campaign's Feb. 5 strategy is in play even if Rudy doesn't win the first four contests.
And there was former Sen. Jim Talent, who is backing Romney, talking about Romney's own faith and Huckabee video on that subject. "I think Gov. Romney sort of answered that pretty extensively in the speech he gave the other day… I loved what he said when he said presidents need the prayers of everybody, faiths of all kinds.
On Huckabee's video: “As a Christian, I’ll say this: It’s a mistake to make Christianity a mistake to any other end. It’s its own end, and whether it’s politics or anything else, I think it’s a mistake, and I’d prefer that he didn’t do it.”
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro post I made earlier -- which McCain’s campaign called me to vehemently oppose and demand an immediate correction -- on McCain’s stance on ethanol, here’s some information on his statements in recent years, and notice the shift in tone:
AGAINST IT 1999: During his 2000 run, MSNBC debate, Dec. 14, 1999: "I'm here to tell you that I'm going to tell you the things that you don't want to hear, as well as the things you want to hear, and one of those is ethanol. Ethanol is not worth it. It does not help the consumer."
More: "Those ethanol subsidies should be phased out, and everybody here on this stage, if it wasn't for the fact that Iowa is the first caucus state, would share my view that we don't need ethanol subsidies. It doesn't help anybody.”
CONTINUE READING FOR MCCAIN'S STATEMENTS IN AUG. 2006 AND MAY 2007
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Joseph Laliberte
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Hillary Clinton as a political punching bag in the past, none of the candidates today even brought up the senator's name. While there were a few references made toward the Democratic field as a whole, Clinton was not singled out. Is that good or bad for her?
From NBC’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy JOHNSTON, IA -- The Thompson campaign just sent out its first email attacking Huckabee on school vouchers, populating a relatively barren field of opposition emails sent out during this debate. In fact the biggest player in the email game so far was relatively absent in each debate up until now: the Democratic National Committee. The research branch of the DNC has sent out eight emails so far attacking Giuliani five times, Romney three times and Huckabee only once - sometimes attacking more than one candidate per email.
From NBC's Chuck Todd This was not a debate, that we can agree on. It was a forum which for the PBS/NPR crowd who swears they don't like debate fireworks and gotchas and simply want candidates talking specifics, should love. Well, they got 60-second non-specific answers on issues that are not registering as the top issues among Republican Party voters. I'm guessing even those folks didn't like this debate.
So who won? Well, this was an opportunity for the field to slow Mike Huckabee and the format didn't allow for it, so on that score, I guess Huckabee can call himself a winner. He was VERY careful to look presidential; he clearly didn't want to look like a marginalized religious candidate and on that score, he did well.
Frankly, the candidate who had the best afternoon I think was Fred Thompson. This was easily his best debate performance and he seemed to shine in this subdued format.
Of course, the loser was the Iowa Republican party; Alan Keyes ruined this debate. I'll have more later.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- Earlier in the debate, when asked what they would accomplish in their first year as president, both Romney and Giuliani answered to end illegal immigration (if not in a year then a couple of years). But how realistic is that? After all, Congress (under both GOP and Dem hands) has spent the last two years trying to solve the immigration issue.
Given a likely Dem-controlled congress in 2009, how can they "end" illegal immigration?
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
Giuliani got into trouble a few months ago by suggesting he was one of the most well-known Americans. Will this have the same effect?
From NBC's Andy Merten In response to the moderator asking him about the NIE accuracy: "That's probably the most important question I've been asked today."
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy JOHNSTON, IA -- Huckabee once again brings out his great-unifier strategy when asked about what he would do in his first year in office, sounding surprisingly like the GOP's version of Obama. He said he wants to be the president of a "United States" -- a line that sounds similar to Obama's red state-blue state, United States stump speech. Is he trying to secure the same disenfranchised independent voters as Obama has targeted? Or at least branch out from his evangelical base?
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney has said before it would take four years to get all Americans insurance, but did he just endeavor to say he would end illegal immigration... in his first year? Seems like a tall order.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy JOHNSTON, IA - As Romney bragged about his MCAS system in MA, but it was a fairly controversial system in that it had relatively few allowances for alternative education systems. Legislative protests were waged by unions and by the student governments of schools across the state in an effort to overturn the graduation requirement of the test.
NBC/NJ's Erin McPike adds ... In Romney's answer on education, he took the opportunity to tout his own record and scorch Huckabee, taking issue with his claim that he had the finest record on education. And he agreed with Thompson. It was surprising that he didn't pivot to immigration on Huckabee, however, for supporting tuition breaks for the children of illegal aliens as that has been his go-to line. He looks to be expanding his Huckabee-based attacks and may have actually turned the last part of this into a debate.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew Berger
Giuliani and his advisers have seem to adopted the “slow and steady wins the race” mentality. Let others fight it out in Iowa, and Giuliani can emerge once the dust settles. But inherent in that plan is the hope that no candidate emerges victorious in every primary battle before Florida. If Romney or Huckabee pulls that out, Giuliani will have been stopped before he really starts.
From NBC's Chuck Todd If Mike
Huckabee had one challenge today, it was to present himself as a plausible nominee, not just a plausible candidate in one state. That last answer about what he'd do in the first year, was clearly his attempt to sound presidential; he talked about bringing folks together etc. It probably played well to the folks wondering if he was too conservative to play in a general.
From NBC's Mark Murray JOHNSTON, IA -- Just stated that the first thing he'd do as president is bring the country together. He said he'd be a president of
all the United States. To conservatives, he said: "We need to quit fightining amongst ourselves."
From NBC's Chuck Todd Assuming the DMR is sticking with this same format tomorrow, the folks that are
