December 2007 - Posts
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller and Mark Murray Edwards' third event of the day, a caucus-goer at the Pizza Ranch here asked a question that has been on everyone's mind: How can Edwards win the presidency within the limits of public financing?
The man said he had heard from other campaigns, specifically naming Michelle Obama , that Edwards would not have the finances to sustain his candidacy. David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, hosted a conference call and sent out a related spreadsheet this morning. Part of the spreadsheet crunched Edwards' campaign funding numbers, explaining that because the former North Carolina senator accepted public financing and its limitations, he would not have the funding to sustain his candidacy through the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 25.
Edwards jumped at the chance to counter.
"We have plenty of money to run a serious campaign,” he said, “but I just want to say how unbelievably weak it is to be arguing that you should be the candidate because you have more money than the other candidate. I mean, really -- does that convince anybody that that's who you should caucus for? You shouldn't even be here if that's what you're looking for!
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro , electable? Not so much, according to a blistering memo out this afternoon from Biden Communications Director Larry Rasky.
“[T]he evidence that Edwards is more electable is at best thin and is probably misleading,” Rasky writes in the memo, which reads more like it is straight out of the RNC's research shop. “The first question mark is that Edwards was unlikely to hold onto to his North Carolina Senate seat in 2003 when he decided not to run for re-election. In short, if John Edwards is so electable, why couldn’t he be re-elected in his home state?”
He then hits Edwards for not carrying his home state as part of the Kerry -Edwards 2004 presidential ticket, and that they even lost Edwards’ home county.
“At the end of the day, despite repeated assurances, Kerry-Edwards also failed to win a single southern state,” Rasky writes. “So it’s understandable that this time around, even John Edwards’s own people are acknowledging his vulnerability: Rob Tully, a former state party chairman and Edwards backer, said “if he doesn't win Iowa or come very close this time, ‘we're done.’”
Rasky even writes, “[T]here are serious doubts about Edwards’ message” before pivoting to why he thinks Biden is more electable. He claims Biden “has set a 15-18 red state strategy” and that “Sen. Biden’s victories have also come during times of strong Republican presence in the Delaware.”
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From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike INDEPENDENCE, IA -- After initially refusing to respond to Huckabee's attack ad bait-and-switch, Romney made the following statement outside Bill's Pizza here this afternoon:
"You know in reaction to the press conference Gov. Huckabee had today, I think that I’d note that I’m running a serious campaign, that there are serious issues that face the country at this time. I want to bring change to Washington -- that’s what my campaign is about. The press conference which Gov. Huckabee had today, I think, is confusing to the people of Iowa. On the one hand, he wants to run a positive campaign; and on the other hand, he shows a negative campaign ad and hopes that people promote it and provide it to the public through the earned media. And I think that’s a very confusing and puzzling message. With that, who wants a slice of pizza?"
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama promised to do to prevent Republicans from "stealing" the election in 2008.
A voter here told Obama that he believed that elections in 2000 and 2004 had been "stolen" by the Republicans and wanted a promise from Obama that he would fight any dirty tricks in 2008.
Obama responded, "I intend to whoop 'em so good that it won't even be close, and they can't steal the election. It won't be 47 on one side, 47 on the other," Obama said of his candidacy.
"I promise you this: If for any reason this thing is close, we will fight it tooth and nail to the end because too much is at stake in this election. Too much is at stake," Obama added.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Huckabee' s day wasn't strange enough, immediately following his anti-attack-ad news conference , a scheduled trip to his campaign headquarters here was disrupted by dual demonstrations that prevented the candidate from entering the building. The ordeal ended with three arrests and a mob of confused journalists forced to find another way inside the building.
Paul's Iowa campaign offices are directly adjacent to Huckabee's, and as journalists arrived to cover what was supposed to be an innocent photo opportunity of Huckabee greeting some campaign volunteers, they were surprised to find dozens of Paul supporters crowding the sidewalks chanting, "Ron Paul revolution, legalized the Constitution."
Simultaneously, an unrelated group of local anti-war activists surrounded the entrance to Huckabee's headquarters, while three members of the group staged a sit-in of sorts in the office lobby. The police were already on the scene when most of the media arrived, but the dueling demonstrations -- combined with a multitude of TV cameras -- presented a formidable entryway when the governor's campaign bus pulled in across the street.
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From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike Romney smiled and laughed his way through a news conference with reporters this morning after his first campaign stop in Bellevue, Iowa.Huckabee over the head with -- and informed reporters that he established a 10-to 12-page set of guidelines for issuing them as governor and said he would do the same as president. And indirectly hitting Huckabee, he added: "Clearly the importance of this topic suggests as we consider something of this nature that we do so on a thorough and complete and comprehensive level, and we don't make pardons on a capricious and arbitrary basis."McCain to Democrats on taxes, Giuliani to Democrats on social issues, and now mentioning former President Clinton in his opening remarks, Romney told reporters later in the session that he had no intention of drawing a parallel between Clinton and Huckabee.
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From NBC's Christina Jamison and Mark Murray Clinton campaign trail, the press corps assumed this morning it'd be more of the same. On the press bus this morning, spokesman Jay Carson said we'd see "no fireworks" and that we'd see a composed and confident candidate hammering home her message to Iowans.
Well, the candidate was certainly calm and composed, but there were definitely some fireworks. Early in the stump speech, Clinton said her leading rivals, Obama and Edwards , were talking about each other and not the issues. "My two leading opponents have spent a lot of time right now kind of, you know, talking about each other," she said. "I'm gonna keep talking about the people of Iowa and the people of America."
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From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller STORM LAKE, Iowa -- At Buena Vista University this afternoon, Edwards continued using a line he debuted yesterday aimed at crossover appeal to voters from other parties.
"Corporate greed -- it's not just stealing the future of Democrats' children; it's stealing the future of Independents' children, of Republicans' children," he told a smaller-than-usual crowd about halfway through his stump speech. "This destruction of the middle class -- it's not just happening to Democrats; it's happening to Republicans. It's happening to Independents. Here's why that matters. Because next fall if you have a presidential candidate who's standing up with some strength and passion in a personal way to do something about this corporate greed there is no place in America that people don't believe this."
This New Year's Eve marks Day 5 of Edwards' final eight-day swing through Iowa before the caucuses. His family is traveling with him, though only daughter Emma Claire and son Jack made an appearance in Storm Lake. Roxanne Conlin, Edwards' Iowa co-chair, and Ben "Cooter" Jones, a former congressman and Dukes of Hazzard star who has campaigned extensively with Edwards, provided the events' introductions.
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From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy DES MOINES, Iowa -- Peace protestors mixed with Ron Paul supporters prevented Huckabee from entering his Des Moines headquarters through the front door. Three people were arrested and then reporters were allowed back in to shoot footage of Huckabee glad-handing volunteers in his headquarters. This was immediately following his 2:00 p.m. ET new s conference.
From NBC’s Mark Murray, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum Huckabee told a packed room of reporters that he was pulling a negative TV ad his campaign had produced to respond to Romney's attacks.
"The cookie cutter approach says you get hit, you hit back,” Huckabee told the reporters, adding, “I think that the Washington way often has been effective. But there may be a better way, and I hope that we can prove that's exactly the case."
Then -- via a laptop projector -- he showed the ad anyway to the several dozen journalists in the room.
Adding to the spectacle, the sound of the ad didn't work for several minutes -- until the press got to hear it one time. The ad, which his campaign said cost $30,000 to produce, begins with Huckabee speaking to the viewer. "I'm Mike Huckabee, and I approve this message, because Iowans have a right to know the truth about Mitt Romney's dishonest attacks on me and even an American hero, John McCain ."
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From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan One thing that stood out in Tim Russert's interview with Obama on Meet the Press Sunday was Obama's claim that he and his wife Michelle have more in common with average Americans now than they would eight years from now.
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From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Elizabeth Edwards defended her husband on the accusation that one of his biggest fundraisers is an oil lobbyist. "Campaigns go to journalists and try to feed them stories to try to get them to have us talk about things other than the issues," she said on MSNBC this morning. "What they brought up is someone who is a state lobbyist in a state in which we do not live, does not lobby the federal government, has never tried to lobby John, but likes John's policies and has tried to raise money for him."
"That's not what John's talking about," she continued. "What John's talking about is not taking money from the same people who then turn around and try to lobby you to get a result. So John has never taken money from a federal lobbyist or from a special interest PAC who might try to convince him to vote a particular way."
Mrs. Edwards did not stop there, taking advantage of the opportunity to attack Clinton. "Coming from the Clinton campaign, who has taken more money from the health care industry, more money from defense contractors, than any other candidate in the race -- that's a little bit disingenuous," Edwards said. "You hear the same thing from other campaigns, where they are trying to get you off message. John is and always has been a fighter against the kinds of influence you see in Washington. And his statement that he will not have a lobbyist in his White House is a real statement that his division between the kind of influence for corporations and his obligation to represent and fight for the people of this country ... is total. That's the reason he made the statement. It is not rhetoric. It is real, and it is also symbolic, of his complete dedication to this ideal."
From NBC's Chuck Todd DES MOINES, Iowa -- An email from the Club for Growth this morning criticizing John McCain over his declaration last night that if given the chance he would again vote against the Bush tax cuts reminded me that a number of third-party special interest groups (on both sides of the spectrum) have a lot on the line in Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond.
The Club, in particular, is watching a potential nightmare scenario brewing in the two early states as the GOP candidates they like the least -- Mike Huckabee and John McCain -- have a shot at sweeping the first two states. The Club went negative on Huckabee early and often and all that's happened as his numbers have shot up. That said, the negative economic info the Club has provided for the public record has been used by Romney so they have to feel pretty good about that.
That said, if Huckabee and McCain win Iowa and New Hampshire and then end up having a 2-way showdown for the GOP nod, it could spell the end of the Club's effectiveness as a conservative third party advocacy group. They Club knows how to make waves but they've always struggled to notch victories outside of House races. If the Club ends up with Huckabee and/or McCain egg on its face in 2008, will that mean some other Republican candidates stop taking their calls?
But the Club isn't the only special interest group with a lot riding on the results of Iowa and New Hampshire. On the Democratic side, three groups in particular have put their money and resources where their mouth is, including: AFSCME, SEIU and EMILY's List.
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From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike Romney launched his final pre-caucus ad in Iowa this morning that reminds voters of his “turn around” message -- and his family.
“Everywhere my family and I go we hear that America’s challenges are simply too big for Washington politicians,” he begins.
He goes on to tick off the laundry list of accomplishments on his resume, including his success in turning things around in business, the Olympics and as governor of Massachusetts. And he ends, “It’s time to turn around Washington.”
Noting the positive message the ad carries, spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said that the contrast in the dynamic will be interesting to watch today given Huckabee’s proposed counterattacks for today.
Still, the Romney campaign blasted out another “THOSE WHO KNOW HIM BEST” release on
Huckabee , hitting him for having a reputation of granting clemencies as governor and charging that the more he granted, “the more applications poured in.”
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike Romney had great success with Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) and his son, Bryan, on Friday. The same was true of Saturday, when he was traveling with former Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) and his son, Michael, and attorney Jay Sekulow and his son, Jordan. But today, he was traveling with former Colorado congressman and failed gubernatorial candidate, Bob Beauprez .
Parts of Beauprez's introductions:
"I tell people, 'Mitt Romney was to business what Elvis Presley was to music,'” Beauprez said. “He was a rock star; he stood out; he set a whole new standard."
But give this one a look, as it caused several reporters' eyes to dart around the room and raise their eyebrows: "Then he went to the Salt Lake Olympics -- extremely difficult circumstances -- and if it wasn't tough enough already, they threw in a little event called 9/11 on top of it to complicate matters. He pulled that off in great style."
(What would the Giuliani campaign say to the notion that 9/11 was a "little event" that was thrown in to complicate matters for Romney...?)
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger Tim Russert said it first, but the Giuliani campaign seems to have adopted it as their mantra, "Florida, Florida, Florida."
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From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney campaign is set to release a positive ad -- the closing message in Iowa -- the team is also starting to engage Obama, given the senator's Romney-heavy remarks on the stump yesterday.
These are campaigns that are supposed to be singularly focused on the primaries in Iowa right now, so what might this be saying about internal tracking data? Romney's camp also just released a document, taking Obama to task on taxes.
*** UPDATE ***
NBC's Domenico Montanaro adds that this positive ad, running in Iowa, comes after Romney released negative ones on Huckabee and McCain, his chief rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively.
In the ad, he touts his accomplishments in "helping turn around business, the Olympics, and state government."
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller will have a full page ad in the Des Moines Register, according to a senior Edwards aide. Edwards will also go on air with 60-second ads during the network evening news programs in Iowa Jan. 2 and 3, according to the source.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro DES MOINES, IA -- After the last four days of watching the top three Democrats on the stump, we think we can categorize their sales pitches more succinctly. Clinton is the steady hand, Obama is the unifying change agent, and Edwards is the crusader. For months, the chattering class has struggled to classify Edwards. Was he a change agent or a populist? Well, after listening to him use a variation of the word "fight" more than "change" (39 times versus 10 at one stop yesterday, per NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller), it's fair to say we know what he is: He's playing the role of crusader. Which message will ultimately work? The most tried and true method is the Clinton tactic (though it does put her in the position of being the "incumbent"). Crusader candidates usually hit a wall at some point because normally they have a hard time bring in new supporters (though Edwards does have ENORMOUS fav ratings). And change agents can do well in two-ways against the steady hand, but how much is Edwards hurting Obama in these closing days?
*** Huck’s big test: Has Huckabee waited too long to respond? He appears to have let Romney get under his skin and he seems to be complaining very publicly about the attacks in a much less humorous way than he has in the past. Example: He tells the Politico that Romney owes him an apology. Will this style change cost him? Will voters look at the complaints at face value, or see him as weak for taking too long to respond? It's a major presidential leadership test for him.
*** Forget ringing in the New Year with a ball drop: While campaigns are spending New Year’s here in the Hawkeye State, they will all hold off on any champagne until the hit refresh on their Web browsers waiting for the final Des Moines Register poll to be posted late tonight. The poll is set to appear in tomorrow's editions of the paper, meaning the poll will begin circulating late tonight. The poll, the most respected of any when it comes to Iowa, will have an effect on how the chattering class sets up the final days of the campaign.
*** Enter Bloomberg? So Bloomberg -- as today’s New York Times suggests -- is closer to running, right? Well, remember he has to if he's even 20% thinking he'll run. The process for getting on ballots starts early, and he has to start the grunt work. What we don't know if whether there are any indie voters or voters in either primary who will use the Bloomberg threat to vote for the most electable candidate. The other thing to keep in mind is that while Bloomberg fascinates the Amtrak East Coast corridor, does the idea play in the rest of America?
*** Pulling a Dean? Did Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D), a key Clinton endorser and surrogate, pull a Howard Dean? “Beginning the presidential nominating process in Iowa, as will occur this week, ‘makes no sense,’ says Gov. Ted Strickland, who recently campaigned there for Sen. Hillary Clinton,” the Columbus Dispatch writes. “‘I'd like to see both parties say, “We're going to bring this to an end,”’ he said.” Well, remember the firestorm that engulfed Dean in January 2004, when NBC reported on unflattering statements he had made about the Iowa caucuses and the caucus system? Of course, there is a big difference of having a candidate (a la Dean) say something like this and a surrogate (like Strickland). But the Ohio governor has become one of Bill Clinton’s standard stump mentions. Does that continue?
*** On the trail: Iowa remains the place to be this New Year’s Eve… Biden visits Fort Dodge, Ames, and Newton; Clinton travels to Keokuk, Fort Madison, Muscatine, Waterloo, and Des Moines (the last three events billed as New Year’s celebrations); Dodd visits the Niman ranch in Thornton; Edwards is in Storm Lake, Spence, Emmetsburg, Algona, and Mason City (for his New Year’s Eve party); Huckabee spends his entire day in Des Moines, which includes a jog, haircut, and news conference; Obama goes to Perry, Jefferson, Boone, Iowa Falls, and Ames; Richardson campaigns in Ames, Perry, Winterset, Knoxville, and winds up in Des Moines for his NYE party; Romney stumps in Clinton, Bellevue, Dubuque, Manchester, Independence, and Waterloo; and Bill Clinton attends his own NYE parties in Missouri Valley and Ottumwa before joining his wife in Des Moines. Elsewhere, Giuliani is down, and Kucinich and McCain are in New Hampshire.
Countdown to Iowa: 3 days
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"Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney took their battle over Christian voters to the pews as both attended services while their campaigns spanned Iowa in a final Sunday pitch to evangelicals. With Christian conservatives expected to make up as much as 40 percent of Republican caucusgoers, Romney dispatched surrogates to meet with pastors in the far corners of Iowa, hoping to blunt Huckabee's momentum among evangelicals. On Friday, three national religious leaders backing Huckabee -- Tim LaHaye, Michael Farris and Rick Scarborough -- convened a conference call with Iowa pastors to urge them to use Sunday's services to drive up participation by Christian voters, who polls suggest favor the former Arkansas governor by comfortable margins."
Per the New York Daily News , "Huckabee and Romney have been engaged in an increasingly nasty tussle for first place among GOP voters in Iowa, where the winner of their clash may be determined by which candidate can more effectively marshal their supporters to caucus sites on Thursday. Romney, who has the bigger war chest, is taking the time-tested route of building county support and approaching Republicans based on their prior voting records… Team Huckabee is relying more heavily on a patchwork of volunteer support from affinity groups such as home-schoolers, Christian groups and supporters of the so-called FairTax plan."
By the way, Huckabee is taking the Romney jabs VERY personally. Politico's Roger Simon got Huckabee to say he was owed a personal apology from Romney for the campaign attacks. “‘I didn't draw first blood and say terrible things about Mitt,’ Huckabee said. ‘I'm not angry. This is politics; it is the way it works. But he not only wants to make up his record, but my record.’”
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CLINTON: Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's critique of Iowa's role in the nominating process didn't go over well with some Iowans. "In an interview with The Dispatch last week, Strickland said the Iowa caucuses make ‘no sense.’ He called the GOP and Democratic caucuses ‘hugely undemocratic,’ because the process ‘excludes so many people.’ Anyone who happens to be working or is sick or too old to get out for a few hours Thursday night won't be able to participate, Strickland said. ‘I'd like to see both parties say, “We're going to bring this to an end,”’ Strickland said, adding that he has no problem with the New Hampshire primary Jan. 8, because ‘at least it's an election.’”
“Since endorsing Clinton in September, Strickland has campaigned for her three times in Iowa, including what was to be a quick trip Dec. 9 that turned into ‘the trip to hell and back,’ Strickland said. He expected to return to Columbus via Chicago early that Sunday night but was waylaid by bad weather, getting home at 6 a.m. Monday -- via Las Vegas. ‘Iowa is not an attractive place to be in the wintertime,’ Strickland said, adding that Iowa ‘is not a representative state and the caucus is not a fair way to register public opinion, in my judgment.’”
”The Clinton campaign yesterday sought some distance from the governor's comments. ‘Sen. Clinton believes that Iowa and New Hampshire play a unique and special role in the nominating process, and that process should be protected,’ spokesman Isaac Baker said. ‘We're proud to have Gov. Strickland's support, but on this issue they disagree.’”
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GIULIANI: After the MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll showed Giuliani lagging far behind in Iowa, the New York Post headlines, "Rudy's got not heartland." "When you get to Florida and the Feb. 5 states, we're ahead in some cases by large percentages and in some case by closer percentages," Giuliani told Fox News. "We believe it's a good strategy and it's going to work."
The Washington Times' Dinan tracked Giuliani's Iowa campaign stops and notes the "reviews" are "far less kind" than they were during the summer when Giuliani was campaigning more regularly in the state.
Giuliani pens an essay on homeland security in City Journal , a quarterly published by the conservative Manhattan Institute.
HUCKABEE: Other than appearing on "Meet the Press," Huckabee was down Sunday. What was he doing ? Adviser Ed Rollins said Huckabee would spend part of the day taping a television ad, to run Monday, aimed at making sure that "the voters know the facts about the governor's record and Governor Romney's record."
PAUL: The Des Moines Register profiles Paul. "His message includes limited government, an end to the war in Iraq, protection of gun rights, lower taxes, strictly abiding by the Constitution and a balanced federal budget. It's a message that sets him apart from other Republican presidential candidates who mostly have supported the war and have not been nearly as aggressive about taking a stand on budget issues as Paul."
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The New York Times reports that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is edging ever closer to an indie run. "A final decision by Mr. Bloomberg about whether to run is unlikely before February. Still, he and his closest advisers are positioning themselves so that if the mayor declares his candidacy, a turnkey campaign infrastructure will virtually be in place. Bloomberg aides have studied the process for starting independent campaigns, which formally begins March 5, when third-party candidates can begin circulating nominating petitions in Texas. If Democrats and Republicans have settled on their presumptive nominees at that point, Mr. Bloomberg will have to decide whether he believes those candidates are vulnerable to a challenge from a pragmatic, progressive centrist, which is how he would promote himself.”
”The filing deadline for the petitions, which must be signed by approximately 74,000 Texas voters who did not participate in the state's Democratic or Republican primaries, is May 12."
The Boston Globe : " Buoyed by the still unsettled field, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg is growing increasingly enchanted with the idea of launching an independent presidential bid, and his aides are aggressively laying the groundwork for him to run."
From NBC's John Yang
Well, sort of.
It depends on what your definition of "ring in" is, Yang adds. If it means being up to celebrate the stroke of midnight and the first seconds of 2008, not so much. Think more like being in bed, having been asleep for hours. Unlike his predecessor, Bush is hardly a night owl, preferring to be in bed by 9:00 pm. or so.
As Laura Bush teased him during her monologue at the 2005 White House Correspondents' Association Dinner: "George, if you really want to end tyranny in the world, you're going to have to stay up later."
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Huckabee in Iowa, Romney made his way through the eastern part of the Hawkeye State with his wife.
Former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R) and his son traveled with the campaign in Iowa yesterday, as did pro-life advocate and attorney Jay Sekulow. Talent and Sekulow explained to reporters on the press bus yesterday afternoon that they have been meeting with evangelical Christian in leaders in the state to remind them of the importance of judicial appointments over the next few years. Sekulow insisted: “To nominate someone and then to see to confirming them are two different tasks. And for the task of confirmation, you have to have the political skills and leadership to do that,” insinuating that Huckabee may not quite be ready for that.
But the suggestion that Romney is politically shrewd enough to cut through the partisanship and rigors of Washington at the same time that he’s suggesting he’s the candidate who can bring change to it seems to be a fine line. Asked that question early this afternoon, he explained to reporters: “Probably my best capability is in building a good team and working with people within that team and across the aisle to get the job done, and I'm not trying to take away from somebody else. They may have their skills. Sen. McCain has been there in Washington 27 years. So he certainly has political skill, but I believe that at this time, to change Washington, it would be helpful to have somebody who comes with more private sector skill, experience outside Washington. I don't think you change Washington from the inside. I think you change it from the outside."
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From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
Today, a glowing Richardson waded into a screaming crowd of over 500 to the spine-tingling guitar jangling of U2's "Where the Streets Have No Name." Last week, crowds of national reporters jostled for seats when Biden held a press conference in Des Moines after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. And McCain packed ‘em in eastern Iowa earlier this week.
For those of you just tuning in now, this is a whole new rodeo.
A breathtaking velocity of campaign frenzy and media coverage has been whirling around candidates like Obama and Clinton for weeks. For top-tierers who routinely attract hundreds to rallies, it’s not out of the ordinary to see a tangle of network cameras elbowing through crowds to catch the money entrance shot as a pumping soundtrack fills the ears of cheering supporters.
To see the same at a Richardson event is stunning.
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Giuliani -- signaling his focus on the longer contest ahead -- looked to stay above the fray today.
Even as he campaigned here in New Hampshire, Giuliani did not exactly pursue the typical primary course. After a town hall meeting in Plymouth, he shook hands for just a few minutes before his staff asked the crowd to leave the room so Giuliani could do a live interview on Fox News Channel. He went on to a ski lodge in Lincoln, where he exchanged quick greetings with hordes of people who seemed surprised to see him there before he quickly moved. And he ended his day at the ritzy Mount Washington Resort, where he addressed a crowd that likely included as many out-of-staters on vacation as it did primary voters.
And as Romney , McCain and Huckabee exchange more pointed barbs on the eve of the caucuses, the former New York mayor urged restraint. In Plymouth, when Giuliani was asked specifically how he differed from his party rivals, he invoked Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment, saying he’ll stick to talking about his record. But he did state the Giuliani amendment to that commandment. “Don’t criticize other Republicans, comma, unless they criticize me,” Giuliani said. “I have to make a little exception.”
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama loves his Republicans. He makes an open pitch for GOP voters in his stump speeches, even as he calls them out in his stump speeches, saying he can beat Mitt and Rudy and Huckabee . At a town hall in Knoxville today, he threw in Ron Paul . "They don't poll Ron Paul, but I can beat him too."
But there's one Republican whom he seems to have a little more affection for than most. Obama frequently makes fun of Romney on the stump, joking about illegal aliens working on his Romney's yard. And today, he was given permission by a Republican deciding between Obama and Romney to draw some "contrasts."
"Mitt Romney is a very handsome guy. He's taller than me. I was listening to an interview this morning and somebody asked him if he's ever cursed. He said of course, but not the real harsh ones. I have to tell you -- I've used the harsh ones, the really juicy ones," Obama told the crowd, laughing.
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From NBC's Mark Murray DES MOINES, IA -- Star attraction Martin Sheen couldn't make it as originally planned -- he is sick and couldn't fly to Iowa -- but that didn't stop a few hundred people from packing a third-floor room above a downtown bar here to listen to Richardson speak.
Is this momentum!" Richardson exclaimed to the crowd. "Is this a real surge!" He went on to say, "We are going to shock the world, right?"
Richardson also said the election "should not be [decided] by the national media. It should be by Iowa." Then citing a poll by the national media -- our MSNBC/McClatchy survey, which has him in fourth place in Iowa, at 12% -- he told the crowd, "We are within striking distance of the top three."
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From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann DES MOINES, IA -- Hillary and Chelsea Clinton went to church today -- for 13 minutes.
Clinton appeared at an 11:00 am service at Corinthian Baptist Church, a mostly African-American congregation here. After arriving about a half hour after the start of the service with daughter Chelsea and former Gov. Tom Vilsack in tow Clinton participated in a lengthy fellowship sharing (the second of the service), during which members greet each other and mingle. Approached -- but not mobbed -- by churchgoers who snapped cell-phone pictures of the senator, Clinton shook hands and posed for photos until the pastor herded the congregation back to their seats with a series of increasingly impatient "Amens."
Clinton made brief remarks at the service, beginning with a pious declaration of "this is the day the Lord has made." But despite her reverential tone, her remarks were not devoid of politics. Touting her years of work for the Children's Defense Fund, she said that she is running for president "in large measure" to ensure the future of America's children. "The American people need a president to be their champion," she said.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller Edwards used some variation of the word "fight" nearly 40 times at a town hall at the Giggling Goat Cafe here this afternoon.
In his stump speech, he uttered the words "fight," "fighting" or "fought" 31 times; in the Q&A session and his closing, he used them an additional eight times. In contrast, Edwards said "change" or "changes" six times in the stump speech and four times in the second half of the town hall.
A perfect example came about 12 minutes into the stump speech, when Edwards told the story of how his father taught him never to back down from a fight. "Where I grew up, you had to fight to survive. You did," he said. "I still remember when I was young coming home -- had gotten in a fight with an older kid and got my butt kicked. Came home, told my, you know, I was beaten up a little bit, said something to my father and he set me down and he said, 'I don't want to ever hear you starting a fight.' I said, 'Yes, sir.' And he said, 'But I want you to hear me and hear me clearly: You never ever walk away from a fight, because if you're not willing to stand up for yourself no one will stand up for you.'"
The words highlight the difference between Edwards and Obama , as the two argue over which one will be the more effective change agent.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
So far the candidates haven't made much of an issue of it here. Remember that at a UNH/Fox News debate on Sept. 5, Sam Brownback was asked about the subject, and when he stood up for an amendment to ban gay marriage, the audience reaction was a mixed bag of boos and applause. One of the debate watchers in the diner, albeit a state employee union member, said: "Absolutely not. We're the state of live free or die, and people should be able to marry the person they love."
Still, we're likely to see the candidates at the very least asked about it when they show up in the Granite State post-caucus, possibly in the two debates planned for the short 5-day gap.
Here's a roundup of some of the local newspaper coverage of the pending civil union period: The AP , The Union Leader (here , here and here ), the Concord Monitor (here and here ), Nashua Telegraph .
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll . In the survey, Romney now leads Huckabee, 27%-23%, although it’s within the 5% margin of error. They’re followed by Thompson at 14%, McCain at 13%, and Giuliani and Paul tied at 5%. Three weeks ago -- before Romney began his contrast ads -- the poll had Huckabee comfortably leading Romney, 32%-20%. One of the reasons for Huck’s decline: His lead over Romney among self-identified born-again Christians has dropped from 42%-8% to 34%-27%. And among weekly churchgoers, it has decreased from 38%-15% to 28%-27%.
*** Dem race all about turnout: The Democratic race in Iowa , meanwhile, is essentially a three-way tie; just two points separate the three front-runners. In the poll, it’s Edwards 24%, Clinton 23%, and Obama 22% -- followed by Richardson at 12% and Biden at 8%. Three weeks ago, it was Clinton 27%, Obama 25%, and Edwards 21%. Although the percentages in it show it to be a tossup, the poll suggests that turnout could decide the contest. According to the survey, Obama leads Edwards and Clinton among first-time caucus-goers, 31%-22%-21%. Among veteran caucus-goers, it’s Edwards 25%, Clinton 24%, and Obama 18%. This suggests that a heavy turnout -- including many first-timers -- could greatly benefit Obama; a lighter turnout probably would benefit Edwards and (to a lesser degree) Clinton. Another important factor in the Dem contest is the battle for second choice (if a candidate doesn’t clear the 15% viability threshold). In the poll, Edwards gets the most second-choice support, and when Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich backers are realigned among the top three Dems, the poll has Edwards over Obama and Clinton, 36%-26%-26%.
*** Other interesting findings: Edwards has the highest fav/unfav score (73%-11%) among the Dem front-runners, while Clinton has the worst (59%-19%). On the GOP side, Romney has the highest rating (58%-19%), while both Giuliani (30%-39%) and Paul (21%-44%) have net-negative scores. In fact, this is the second-straight MSNBC/McClatchy poll that has Paul with a net-negative rating, leading us -- once again -- to wonder if Paul is running for the wrong party’s nomination. The new poll was conducted from December 26-28 among 400 likely GOP and 400 likely Dem caucus-goers, and it has a 5% margin of error.
*** So what about tea leaves? This poll indicates that the candidate with the greatest upside on the Dem side is Edwards. He's polling competitively and has the highest ceiling of support among these likely caucus-goers; he's tops among second choice AND he's got the highest fav rating. Obama appears to have the next highest ceiling, with Clinton with the smallest room to grow, as she trails badly in second choice and her fav rating -- while excellent -- is third among the top three candidates. As for the tea leaves on the GOP side, Romney appears to have the big Mo; these numbers match the anecdotal we've picked up.
*** Should the Dems go negative, too? Will Romney's apparent success in going negative change the CW about negative ads in Iowa on the Dem side? Maybe not. Why? It's much easier to go negative in a two-way race than in a three-way one, and that's why you aren't seeing any of the Dems risk going negative for fear that if candidate A attacks candidate B, candidate C gains.
*** The Outsiders: Both Huckabee and Edwards are running against bigger bankrolls and it's pushed both to using populist appeals. But the two aren't just "outsiders" in the literal sense. They are also relying on "outsiders" to win Iowa. Both are getting arguably more support (in the case of Huckabee) or as much support (in the case of Edwards) from these groups. Obama is trying to make this an issue with Edwards, as the Obama camp sees these outside groups allowing Edwards to apparently outspend Obama in these final days on TV. These Obama hits are having -- potentially -- a divisive effect on SEIU, whose state and local affiliates are helping to bankroll one of these pro-Edwards groups. Should Edwards fail to win Iowa, don't be surprised if there is a lot of internal turmoil inside of SEIU. Last night, the national union sent out a release reaffirming its support for the pro-Edwards 527, which is making a lot of pro-Obama SEIU forces upset.
*** The electability primary: Interestingly, all three leading Dem candidates made electability pitches during their Iowa stops. What did they all see in their recent tracking? Or is this about wooing second choicers? After all, according to the MSNBC/McClatchy poll out today, 20% are supporting Richardson and Biden, making the second-choice vote very important. And electability likely is a greater concern among folks making a backup pick. It can be a deal closer.
*** On the trail : Once again, nearly everyone is in the Hawkeye State… Biden travels to Mason City, Garner, Algona, and Woodbury; Clinton attends church in Des Moines before going to Vinton, Traer, Cedar Falls, and Iowa Falls; Dodd hits Le Mars, Emmetsburg, and Mason City; Edwards campaigns in Boone, Denison, Mapleton, and Sioux City; Huckabee has no other public events but a jog; Obama appears in Knoxville, Newton, Indianola, and Des Moines; Richardson stumps in Marshalltown, Des Moines, and Fort Dodge; Romney hits Iowa City, Mount Vernon, and Moscow; and Thompson is in Ames and Webster City. Elsewhere, both Giuliani and McCain campaign in New Hampshire.
Countdown to Iowa: 4 days
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The New York Times looks at the Democratic ground war. Obama “is on the hunt for Iowans who have never participated in the state’s presidential caucuses, including independent voters under 50 and students who will be 18 by the general election.” Clinton “is searching for Iowans who have skipped the caucuses in the past and who, because of age, sex or other characteristics, seem likely to support her, starting with independent women over 65 and under 30.” And Edwards “is taking a more traditional approach, working through the official list of Democrats who showed up to choose a candidate in 2004.”
More: “The ground war - the laborious, unglamorous process of identifying supporters and making sure they show up to make their preference known when it counts - has always been a critical part of the contest in Iowa. But the turnout effort among Democrats this time around has exploded into the most ambitious and costly in the history of this state’s presidential caucus system, and it puts on display the sharply diverging strategies the candidates are pursuing as they hurtle toward the first real test of the 2008 campaign.”
The Clinton, Edwards, and Obama camps seem to agree with this:
The MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll isn’t the only new Iowa survey out today. A Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll has Clinton ahead (outside the margin of error) over Obama and Edwards, 31%-27%-24%. On the GOP side, it’s Huckabee 29%, Romney 28%, McCain 11%, and Thompson, Giuliani, and Paul all tied at 8%.
CONTINUED >>
Say this about Huckabee, he really can handle tough questions. Under intense questioning from NBC’s Tim Russert, Huck never lost his cool. He passed the Pakistan pop quiz of sorts and even got in some harsh Romney digs, calling him dishonest. And in defending his running on his faith, Huckabee reminded viewers he didn't try and replace the Arkansas capital dome with a steeple. Bottom line: The guy is comfortable in his own skin and despite the array of tough questions he received, he never didn't smile or stay calm.
As far as Obama, who followed Huckabee on Meet the Press, the senator sounded a bit stuffed up. Then again, so are we... Obama stuck behind David Axelrod's comments about Clinton, her Iraq vote and Pakistan. While he didn't accept the idea there was a causal relationship with the Iraq vote, he used it as an example on judgment.
Obama compared himself to Bill Clinton and claimed he had more formal foreign policy experience now than Bill Clinton did in ‘92. That's something the Clinton folks may pounce on.
"We're not that far away from normal." Might be one of the more fascinating quotes, he said in terms of saying what he meant when he said his wife said he wouldn't run again if he lost...
BIDEN: Biden drew 250 to an event in Iowa, "in a scene more typical of the events of Democratic front-runners Sens. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton and John Edwards." Richard Schiff, the West Wing's Toby Ziegler, introduced Biden and will campaign with him today.
CLINTON: The Washington Post : "After trying out various themes and rationales for her campaign, Hillary Clinton has settled in the final week before the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary on the experience plank, arguing that she is the only one of the front-running Democratic candidates prepared to lead from the first day in office, a claim her rivals have challenged by questioning the value of her tenure as first lady. Clinton advisers noted privately this week that the experience argument was bolstered by the assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto and the threat of wider unrest in that country. Clinton pressed the point during a stop in Eldridge, Iowa, telling reporters: "I'm not asking you to take me on faith. I'm not asking you to take a leap of faith."
At a town hall meeting tonight, Bill Clinton once again suggested that he opposed the war in Iraq, NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli notes. Talking about the state of the economy here, Clinton talked about the growing inequality between the top wage earners and the rest of Americans. As he often has, he then talked about how he was given tax breaks and not asked to sacrifice. "As soon as I got rich, this party that had been so mean to me thought I was peachy keen, and the president could not do enough for me," Clinton said. "He just kept throwing tax cuts at me and borrowing money to pay for it, while we had men and women in uniform in Iraq and Afghanistan. And I was deprived of the opportunity to support them."
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI: The former New York mayor appears to be moving on from Iowa. "Aides said the ex-mayor won't even return to Iowa for the caucus results," the New York Daily News writes. "While Giuliani's 20 stops in the state since the campaign began may seem like a lot, some Iowans said they didn't see enough of him to take his measure."
HUCKABEE: The Politico’s Martin writes, “Since becoming the Iowa frontrunner, Mike Huckabee has been subjected to a month-long siege of media scrutiny and mostly unanswered attacks from his top rival - an onslaught that any presidential hopeful would be hard-pressed to survive… Huckabee’s slide can be explained by a series of inter-related factors. His rise came right as the media began to closely cover the campaign, he and his undermanned campaign organization have been ill-prepared to push back against broadsides from both the press and Romney and his positions and rhetoric have drawn the enmity of a constellation of groups within the conservative establishment.”
When he's asked about the biting attack ads being slung at him by rival Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee likes to laugh off the tough talk, NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann reports. But a new mailer going out to Iowa Republicans makes it clear that he's playing serious defense. In fact, some might say that he sounds like a man on the ropes.
CONTINUED >>
Just one day before the New Hampshire primary, a group of moderate Dems and Republicans -- as well as New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg -- will meet at the University of Oklahoma to announce that if the likely nominees of the two parties do not pledge to "go beyond tokenism" in building a bipartisan government, they will be prepared to back Bloomberg in an indie bid. Those participating: Sam Nunn, Chuck Robb, David Boren, Gary Hart on the Dem side; and Chuck Hagel, Bill Brock, John Danforth and Christie Whitman on the GOP side.
Others who may attend the event include: Bill Cohen, Alan Dixon, Bob Graham, Jim Leach and Susan Eisenhower (granddaughter of the late president).
From NBC's Christina Jamison Clinton continued her electability argument here in the home stretch of the Iowa campaign.
The message was clear: She is a known quantity, and Iowans shouldn't risk someone who can't stand up to the election scrutiny. When Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland introduced Clinton, he warned "she has remained standing while many of her detractors are no longer around... We know what they did to Senator John Kerry , don't we? And they will do it again."
Clinton then took the stage, asserting again she has the strength and experience to bring change to Americans. "I know that change is hard. Change is hard in our own lives. Change is hard, you know, in any activity you're a part of. But we have to have a president who knows how important it is and can deliver on change for our country."
Perhaps taking a veiled swipe at Obama , she emphasized that she's a known quantity in this election. "Why do I tell you some of these things that I've done over the course of my 35 years of work on behalf of other people?"
"I'm not asking you to take a leap of faith on me. I'm asking you to examine and to consider and to evaluate what I have done and the kind of positive change I have already made."
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller and NBC's Mark Murray WASHINGTON, IA -- Edwards told a crowd at a library this morning that he would not hire any former corporate or foreign government lobbyists in his administration.
"I want to make an announcement today, which is that when I am president of the United States, no corporate lobbyist or anyone who has lobbied for a foreign government will work in my White House," he said.
Following the town hall, Edwards reiterated to reporters that that means he will not hire anyone who has ever been registered as a federal lobbyist in Washington, DC. He said that would include "people who have lobbied, been registered lobbyists in Washington on behalf of corporate interests at the federal level ... corporate lobbyists, those who've lobbied against the interests of the American people, those who've lobbied on behalf of foreign governments."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan and NBC's Mark Murray FORT MADISON, IA -- Obama pushed his electability argument a step further at his second stop here today, highlighting Clinton's unfavorable ratings -- while claiming that he could win enough Republican support to create a coalition for governing if he were to win the presidency.
"There's one Democrat who beats every Republican potential opponent, and that's me. I beat Giuliani , I beat McCain , I beat Thompson , I beat Huckabee -- I beat whoever else they are planning to throw at me," he said.
Obama added, "And the reason that I beat them all -- and Hillary doesn't and Edwards doesn't -- is because I get more support from independents and I even get some Republican support, despite the fact that I've got the most progressive track record on many issues of any of the candidates."
Obama went a step further, contrasting his favorability ratings with Hillary Clinton's unfavorable ones nationally and played on the fears of Democrats that the election in 2008 could be a repeat of the one in 2004.
Obama paused before he drew his contrast, conscious of how his words would come off. "We cant win an election with a candidate... Let me say it this way, because I want to be fair…" He went on to say, "We are less likely to win an election that starts off with half the country not wanting to vote for that candidate." And in what seemed to be a dig at Edwards, he said, "We are less likely also to win an election with somebody who had one set of positions four years ago and has almost entirely different positions four years later. We've been through that."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Bill Clinton made an appeal to the state's thrifty sensibility, saying that she "is more conservative than the Republicans" when it comes to fiscal policy.
Speaking at a crowded ceramics manufacturer here in Dover, where people who couldn't get inside clamored for a view from a sole window, the former president outlined the four main reasons voters should support his wife on primary day. One of them was fiscal responsibility, which Clinton said was a family trait. "Unless you think I'm telling you my speech instead of hers, let me remind you of something," he said. "My dearly departed father-in-law, her daddy, who died in my first term, never bought a car until the day he died that he couldn't pay cash for. We have a depression mentality about that, maybe we shouldn't, but we're tight."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten and NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy Huckabee certainly isn’t afraid to stand up for himself -- or his political rivals.
Responding to dual attack ads released by the Romney campaign yesterday, which targeted Huckabee in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire, the former Arkansas governor today defended not only his own honor, but that of the Arizona senator’s.
“It’s not the most pleasant position to be in,” Huckabee said about the Romney ad that hits his record on spending, immigration, and sentence commutations for inmates. And using the matter-of-fact wit that has helped endear him to Iowans, he continued: “If I believe even half the stuff that’s in those ads, I probably wouldn’t even vote for myself, much less expect you to.”
But he didn’t stop there. As he did yesterday, he defended McCain from a twin attack ad that was released in New Hampshire. “Look, John McCain is a rival in the presidential race, but John McCain is an honorable, decent, true to heaven American hero.”
“It’s like Mitt doesn’t have anything to stand on -- except to stand against,” he addded.
Also, an independent group has launched a Web site called Trust Huckabee , which debuts with a video mocking Romney’s evolving views on abortion. The video, which adopts the same format of Romney’s recent attack ads, shows clips of the former Massachusetts governor’s conflicting statements on the issue, with a man laughing hysterically in the background.
From NBC's Bethany Thomas Romney camp had released a new negative ad against McCain .
After McCain was read the script of the ad from a journalist’s blackberry, he said he was not surprised by the new attack, the second in such days. “I think we expected it... We did have a response ad and I think it’s effective. But for us to get down in that tit for tat -- we’re just not going to do that.”
Senior strategist Charlie Black said the voters will question Romney -- not McCain -- over the latest round of ads. “The biggest issue in the race right now is not what [McCain] says on any specific issue. It’s Romney’s credibility.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan campaign is releasing another television advertisement in Iowa today, its second Iowa ad in the and its third overall TV ad over the last two days.
The ad -- entitled "Hope" -- tries to convey the message that Obama has based his candidacy on: that he is the only candidate who can "bring a fractured people together," quoting an editorial from the Sioux City Journal.
The ad goes on to say that Obama can take on the special interests and "reset the nation's foreign policy and global reputation."
It's the second Iowa ad that uses the local newspaper endorsements Obama has received from the Sioux City Journal, the Iowa City Press-Citizen and the Ottumwa Courier. Obama's campaign has prided itself on providing local papers with access to the senator. The ad concludes "Iowa's newspapers have spoken. Now you can stand for change."
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani would deal with the “rise of the Muslims” and that the United States should “defeat or chase them back to their caves”.
John Deady made the comments in a video interview to The Guardian newspaper last weekend, while attending a Giuliani house party at the home of Manchester, N.H., Mayor Frank Guinta.
“He has got, I believe, the knowledge and the judgment to attack one of the most difficult problems in current history, and that is the rise of the Muslims,” Deady said in the video interview, posted Dec. 27. “Make no mistake about it, this hasn’t happened for a thousand years. These people are very, very dedicated. They’re also very smart in their own way, and we need to keep the feet to the fire and keep pressing these people until we defeat them or chase them back to their caves, or, in other words, get rid of them.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan Obama turned up the heat in his own stump speech in Burlington this morning, shouting into the microphone that no other Democrat besides him had a chance to defeat a Republican in the general election.
"Those of you who are still undecided I know what you're asking is, who can win in November?” he said. “Cause you don't want to just elect a nominee, you want to elect a president. So I think you should take a look and see what the polls have said. Most recent polls, I am the only candidate who beats every single one of the Republican candidates. I beat Giuliani , I beat McCain , I beat Romney , I beat Thompson , I beat Huckabee , I beat 'em all. I beat them all," he shouted into the microphone.
Contrasting himself with his rivals, he said, "John Edwards doesn't beat them all. Hillary Clinton doesn't beat 'em all. And part of the reason I [would] because I am able to reach out and get the support of Independents and get the support of some Republicans who are tired of seeing their country waste away. And that is how we're going to win in November, and that is how we are going to govern 4 years from now and 8 years from now that is why I am running for president of the United States. I am running to win this election and bring about real change."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Bethany Thomas The crowds have been steadily building over the last week for McCain, both in Iowa and New Hampshire. Today, in New Hampshire the crowds are literally spilling out of the doors and into the hallways of all of the venues thus far. In fact, it was so crowded, some of the TV crews couldn't get in to shoot.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger CLIVE, Iowa -- The closing night of any show always draws an interesting crowd, so as Giuliani makes his last lap around Iowa today, he is being trailed by a group of media heavyweights. Many of the reporters that are with him today acknowledge that they haven’t seen Giuliani on the campaign trail for months, if at all, and want to catch a glimpse of him in person before he is gone for good. While the reporters have been camped out in Iowa, Giuliani has been elsewhere, and they say it has contributed to him being left out, by and large, from the national dialogue in recent weeks, his medical scare notwithstanding.
Giuliani started his day with a rally in his cramped Iowa headquarters here. He stayed for just 20 minutes, speaking to staffers and volunteers. He seemed more comfortable utilizing the new campaign theme of “Tested. Ready. Now.” than he was when it was first unveiled.
He was asked about recent comments from McCain that Giuliani’s experience on 9/11 was better described as crisis management than national security. “I would say that my experience goes back well before Sept. 11,” he said, rattling off his time as a federal prosecutor and Justice Department official. “I have a tremendous amount of experience dealing with the safety and responsibility for other people.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller Edwards five days before the Iowa caucus may be picking off caucus-goers from other campaigns. In a press release preceding the day’s first event, the campaign named 45 Iowans who supported either John Kerry, Howard Dean or Dick Gephardt in the 2004 caucus but plan to caucus for Edwards next week.
Meanwhile, at the event, a Kucinich supporter stood and said that he caucused for Edwards in 2004 after his first choice wasn’t viable. (In January 2004 Edwards and Kucinich each advised their supporters to move to the other’s camp if one of them was not viable.) The questioner said he was considering Edwards again.
“I was proud to caucus for you last time after campaigning my heart out for Dennis Kucinich,” he told Edwards and asked if the candidate would support Kucinich’s proposal for a Cabinet-level Department of Peace.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
Richardson is hinging much of his run for the White House on his call for an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq. A new mailer going out to Iowa Democrats highlights his plan and slams the three Democratic frontrunners for their more gradual strategy to pull US forces from the region.
"Clinton, Edwards, Obama: Tens of Thousands Left Behind" reads the bold-lettered text.
A carefully footnoted series of paragraphs follows: "Clinton, Edwards, and Obama have said they would leave tens of thousands of troops in Iraq."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike
There's yet another new spot out there this morning that takes McCain to task on illegal immigration. Despite McCain's attempts to change course on the issue, acknowledging that the American people spoke by coming out in force against the comprehensive immigration legislation that he co-sponsored, the first thing the ad reminds voters is: "McCain championed a bill to let every illegal immigrant stay in America permanently."
Just before issuing the ad, the camp blasted out a release about McCain in which spokesman Kevin Madden stated: "Senator McCain has a troubling history of neglecting substantive issues and getting personal in his attacks against those who happen to disagree with him. It’s the McCain way."
Despite the volley with the McCain campaign, team Huckabee is coming out against Romney in force in Iowa. A Huckabee supporter has been trailing the campaign at a couple of events in the Hawkeye State over the last couple of days and has been approaching the press. Today in the Midtown Cafe in Newton - at Romney's second event -- he identified himself not as a staffer but as a supporter and notified reporters that several members of the Arkansas legislature were holding an informal session with reporters after the event to debunk some of Romney's claims about the former Arkansas governor.
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger Giuliani is back in Iowa for the first time in a couple of weeks, and he brought with him a new brochure that is unlike anything we’ve seen before. Instead of the standard red, white and blue, Giuliani’s latest pamphlet is gold, with “Shared Values Coalition” in bold letters at the top.
And inside is Giuliani, side by side with Pat Robertson. It quotes his remarks on faith from the Value Voters Summit in October and other religious leaders. “Rudy Giuliani Shares Our Values” is in block letters along the top.
It also includes a new set of “The Mayor’s Commitments.” It’s not the standard “Twelve Commitments” Giuliani references on a daily basis. This set of 10 includes supporting the Defense of Marriage Act, parental notifications for abortions and strengthening home schooling.
The brochure looks to galvanize members behind a new, faith-based coalition, called the “Shared Values Coalition.” This handout was nowhere to be seen in Florida the last few days.
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro The Obama campaign today released a memo hitting Clinton and Edwards parts for an influx of support from outside groups into Iowa. The only one not benefiting is Obama, as he’s largely been going it alone.
”These latest revelations make it clear why Edwards was able to announce that he could accept public funds while still spending all he needed to spend in Iowa,” Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe writes. “His campaign simply exploited the biggest loophole in the campaign finance system in order to get public matching funds while arranging through allies to benefit from a 527. That’s how they avoided the spending limits that are a condition of the public matching funds.”
On Clinton, Plouffe denounces an anti-Obama AFSCME mailer. Notably, a pro-Edwards 527, funded largely by local SEIUs, is up with positive ads in Iowa for Edwards. AFSCME and the American Federation of Teachers have been out with mailers for Clinton. Clinton has not shied away from interest groups’ money, even defending them as real people at this summer’s YearlyKos convention. Edwards has campaigned hard on a platform against Washington interest group money, and has had to balance denouncing the 527 and embracing the support of the SEIU.
These are groups Obama lobbied, and they ultimately chose Edwards and Clinton. How would Obama have handled the situation differently if these groups had endorsed him?
Here’s the full memo:
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann DES MOINES, IOWA -- OK, it's not Les Mis. But after six months of this, we could all use a laugh.
Last night marked the opening of Des Moines' most anticipated theatrical production -- Caucus! The Musical. The vision of Midwestern playwright Robert John Ford, the play gleefully pokes fun at the descent of four fictional presidential candidates into the small communities of Iowa by chronicling their shameless courtship of one Iowa farmer and his family.
A quick run through the original soundtrack demonstrates the production's flippant and witty tone. The apocryphal candidates and their campaign managers’ soft-shoe to the "Tough Question SideStep." Christian Right favorite the Rev. Stanley Jensen declares his candidacy, crooning, "So I questioned should I run? / First I wasn't much enticed / Then I got the thumbs up sign from Lord Jesus Christ." The gaggle of politicos ventures into the snowy hinterlands of Algona and Decorah with a Hawaiian-shirt clad parody of the Beach Boys' "Kokomo." And the whole cast hits a patriotic note with its rousing finale of "Get Off Your Sorry Ass and Vote."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike ALTOONA, Iowa -- Romney may be behind Huckabee in Iowa, but with scores of national reporters in nearby Des Moines checking out his message this morning, McCain remains his top target.
Again this morning he's touting his role as a change agent. He said that he can't forecast what will happen in the election, but he'd offer some of his thoughts on elections generally. One of his thoughts was, "No one votes for yesterday; they vote for tomorrow." He went on. "Elections are about the future, our future, our family's future, our nation's future."
Over the course of the last week, Romney started hitting harder the Washington outsider game that he brings as a governor from outside the Beltway. He told New Hampshire voters last weekend that if they wanted a politician who has spent nearly three decades in Washington, he was the wrong guy -- a direct swipe at McCain.
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro DES MOINES, IA -- How crazy has the presidential contest become with now just five days until the Iowa caucuses? Well, yesterday, Romney and McCain were locked in the political equivalent of a steel-cage match over their sparring TV ads; the once pro-immigrant Huckabee was standing by his (incorrect) claim that there are more illegal immigrants from Pakistan than any other country south of the US border; the Clinton and Obama campaigns were scuffling over Obama's use of the word "tea"; the Obama and Edwards camps -- once friendly to one another -- were again going at it; and as of 7:00 pm ET last night, six campaigns unveiled a total of 10 new TV ads, per NBC's Lauren Appelbaum (one from Clinton, two from Edwards, two from McCain, two from Obama, two from Romney, and one from Thompson). Thursday can’t get here soon enough…
*** McCain vs. Romney: It’s not as red hot as we thought it would be back when McCain was a front-runner. But it’s getting there. It all started when Romney tried to do a soft negative on the Arizona senator -- similar how Romney's been going negative on Huckabee here in Iowa. Well, McCain's camp decided to bring a gun to a knife fight and unloaded on Romney with a TV that quotes those two devastating editorials from the Concord Monitor and New Hampshire Union Leader. Romney's favorables may not be high enough in either Iowa or New Hampshire to sustain massive negative hits. That said, Romney got into this bash-fest first, which means his paid response to McCain is likely to be harder. To reporters, Romney hinted at how he'll fight back against McCain: questioning his temperament.
*** Is Huck ready? On TODAY this morning, Huckabee attempted to re-explain his immigration-Pakistani claim that he made Friday morning. While he proved once again to be very good at talking his way out of a potential controversy, the misstep is a reminder that he's still a rookie candidate prone to mistakes. Also, while the McCain-Romney exchanges are hot right now, don't overlook the onslaught of negatives being dumped on Huckabee by Romney and the Club for Growth. In fact, the Huck folks -- worried about his momentum going from Huckaboom to Huckabust -- seem poised to fight back against Romney. For the first time last night, Huckabee brought up Romney by name at a campaign stop, NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy notes. And the campaign is not ruling out a paid response, say, by Monday.
*** Phone home: Speaking of gaffes, did Edwards duck one? Yesterday, we noted Edwards' phone call to Pakistan's Pervez Musharraf, which was dutifully returned. Seemed like a good gambit, right? Well, what if Musharraf ends up being implicated in Bhutto's assassination? As we noted yesterday, had either Clinton or Obama done this, they would have been killed by the Chattering Class (and their rivals). Edwards' folks may complain that they don't get the same treatment from the media as Clinton and Obama do, but sometimes that may be a good thing.
*** Now or never? This didn’t get the play it deserved yesterday: Obama told his supporters if he doesn't win in 2008, he won't try again later on. "My wife and I were talking the other day, and she said we're not doing this again," he said. It’s a fascinating closing argument. Will he say it again?
*** First Read weather update: Between now and Caucus Day, we'll be mentioning the Iowa weather forecast for January 3. Bottom line: It’s looking like it will be clear and cold. Per weather.com, the day is expected to be mostly sunny with a high of 28 in the day and partly cloudy and 22 at night in Des Moines; in the west in Council Bluffs, the forecast is for 34 and windy in the daytime and partly cloudy and 22 at night; and in the east in Dubuque, they are looking at a much colder day/night -- with a high of 25 and windy in the daytime and 23 and mostly cloudy at night.
*** Some just askin's: As the hours wind down here in Iowa, we figured we'd close each First Thoughts with a few questions to ponder: Is there a Ron Paul "Mendoza" line, meaning that candidates that finish below Paul in the caucuses (Rudy? Fred?) have MAJOR problems? What about this enthusiasm gap? Huckabee and Giuliani yesterday had decent turnouts -- but they were on a scale of what Joe Biden gets, and about a third of what Obama or Clinton receive.
*** On the trail: Once again, almost everyone is in Iowa today: Biden hits Independence, Manchester, Elkader, and Dubuque; Clinton stops in Eldridge, Clinton, Maquoketa, and Manchester; Edwards is in Muscatine, Washington, Knoxville, and Des Moines (where he holds a rally in the evening); Giuliani goes to Clive, Indianola, and Pleasant; Huckabee campaigns in Osceola, Indianola, and Perry; Obama travels to Burlington, Madison, Keokuk, Mt. Pleasant, and Ottumwa; Richardson stumps in West Liberty, Iowa City, and Cedar Rapids; and Romney is in Altoona, Newton, Pella, Oskaloosa, Ottumwa, and Burlington. Elsewhere, McCain campaigns in New Hampshire, as does Bill Clinton, who hits Nashua, Dover, and Portsmouth.
Countdown to Iowa: 5 days
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The Washington Post says that Edwards and Obama “are engaged in an increasingly pointed duel over which man is the true messenger of ‘change’ in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination -- with both drawing heavily from Bill Clinton's themes during his first campaign for the White House… [W]ith Clinton dominating the issue of experience, change remains the central battleground for Edwards and Obama.”
National Journal's Ron Brownstein delves inside the numbers of the latest L.A. Times/Bloomberg poll in Iowa. His conclusion: "Edwards is siphoning away votes both Obama and Clinton probably hoped to attract here. Because Edwards is now stronger among men than women, he is hurting Obama (especially among college men). But because Edwards is stronger downscale than upscale, he is hurting Clinton (especially among the non-college men). All of these cross pressures have produced a race far too close to call."
On a similar note, The Los Angeles Times writes about how Obama has recalibrated his rhetoric a bit to appeal to some of the same blue-collar voters that have formed the support foundation for both Edwards and Clinton. This piece couches the Obama shift as a direct reaction to Edwards.
CONTINUED >>
The New York Times notes that many of the presidential candidates continued to talk about Pakistan and Bhutto’s death while on the campaign trail yesterday. “Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, Democrats who have struggled to attract voters’ attention, edged into the spotlight on Friday after talking about Pakistan for weeks… Senators John McCain, Republican of Arizona, and Hillary Rodham Clinton, Democrat of New York, spent the day asserting their own personal expertise: their private conversations with Ms. Bhutto and Mr. Musharraf, their visits to Pakistan and their concerns about fallout affecting the nation’s nuclear arsenal to the hunt for Osama bin Laden.”
“The Bhutto assassination is one of those rare things in a presidential race -- an unscripted, unexpected moment that lays bare a candidate’s leadership qualities and geopolitical smarts. Think of Mr. bin Laden’s videotape message late in the 2004 election … or the twists of the Iranian hostage crisis in 1980.”
In a conference call with reporters yesterday, Huckabee cited an article from the Denver Post written by Bruce Finley as the source for his information on his claim that there are more illegal immigrants from Pakistan than from any other country besides south of the US border, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy reports. (Here's the full write-up .). “The number came from Homeland Security,” Huckabee said, referring to his speech yesterday in which he claimed that 660 illegal Pakistani immigrants entered the US last year. “There are two stories that are published that report that number. One is Bruce Finley of the Denver Post and there is also a Jim Pinkerton column in which that is mentioned. And that's where that figure, they were quoting Homeland Security on that number.”
CONTINUED >>
"The battle between Mitt Romney and John McCain in New Hampshire's Republican primary took a significant turn yesterday as Romney unveiled his first television advertisement attacking McCain's record," the Boston Globe writes. McCain responded with an ad attacking Romney, using the words of two editorials, one of which describes Romney as a "phony."
Romney said this about the McCain ad, per NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike, “It's nasty. It's mean-spirited. Frankly, it tells you more about Sen. McCain than it does about me that he would run an ad like that.”
NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli was with McCain in New Hampshire, and he quotes McCain on the Romney ad exchange: "I was encouraged because it’s clear that Gov. Romney attacks when people are catching up with him. And I understand why he’s talking about the future since he’s spent most of his time running away from his past. But we’ll respond. And we have to respond, and we will respond. But we will conduct this campaign in a dignified manner, on the issues. The people of New Hampshire, I would like to tell Governor Romney, don’t respond favorably to negative ad campaigns. That’s not what the people of New Hampshire want when they choose a leader. And we won’t engage in that kind of campaigning nor will we stoop to responding to a lot of it."
CONTINUED >>
CLINTON: "Farmer Garry Klicker and some other family-farm advocates say Democrat Hillary Clinton's choice of a leader of her rural campaign committee casts doubt on her credibility on small-farm issues," the Des Moines Register writes. "Clinton picked the owner of a large-scale livestock operation who has promoted national corporate agriculture interests to be co-chairwoman of "Rural Americans for Hillary."
EDWARDS: The Obama folks seem a bit exasperated by the 527 help Edwards is receiving, particularly Alliance for a New America, which is run by his former campaign manager. As the Washington Post reports, one of the Alliance for a New America donors is a trust for a 97-year-old woman, which gave the group almost $500,000. The trust is run by attorney, Alexander Forger, who himself is a maxed out contributor to Edwards.
Edwards has an op-ed in the Boston Globe , entitled, "Rallying the middle class." In it, he lays out his four-step plan to help the middle class, the basis for closing argument speech delivered yesterday.
CONTINUED >>
Don’t be surprised if this becomes something some of the Democratic presidential candidates talk about on the campaign trail today. “[O]n Friday, with no warning, a vacationing Mr. Bush announced that he was vetoing a sweeping military policy bill because of an obscure provision that could expose Iraq’s new government to billions of dollars in legal claims dating to Saddam Hussein’s rule,” the New York Times writes. “The decision left the Bush administration scrambling to promise that it would work with Congress to quickly restore dozens of new military and veterans programs once Congress returns to work in January.”
More: “Mr. Bush’s veto surprised and infuriated Democratic lawmakers and even some Republicans, who complained that the White House had failed to raise its concerns earlier. And it gave Democrats a chance to wield Mr. Bush’s support-the-troops oratory against him, which they did with relish.”
The Washington Post : “At issue is a provision of the defense bill that would amend the Foreign Sovereign Immunities Act. It was championed by Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D-N.J.) as a way to give victims of state-sponsored terrorism legal recourse. Such victims would be entitled to sue countries in U.S. courts. In a statement, Lautenberg said the measure was intended to extend redress to victims of such state-sponsored terrorist attacks as the Iran-led bombing of a Marine barracks in Beirut in 1983 and Libya's downing of an airliner over Lockerbee, Scotland, in 1988. Lautenberg's statement did not address whether the measure also created the unintended consequences for Iraq cited by Bush.”
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum told his supporters if he doesn't win in 2008, he won't be trying again later on. "My wife and I were talking the other day, and she said we're not doing this again," he said in Williamsburg, Iowa.
But it's not just because Michelle Obama misses her husband and wants her home. Obama said his wife said they will be different people in eight years and not be able to connect to ordinary "normal" Americans -- unlike now, when it is just five years since they still had law school loans and were living in a two small condo with no college fund started for their kids.
"We'll still be good people hopefully but we'll be in a different orbit, in a different circle," Obama said. "Our worries will be different and our concerns will be different. We're already there but at least we still remember what that was like."
"I thought that was a wonderful insight," he continued. "One of the things that I think I offer in this race is, you know, the way she put it was, we still remember what it is like to be normal. But I think that's part of what happens when you are in Washington for very long time. You lose touch with that. Then it becomes harder to relinquish power."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy OTTUMWA, IA -- In a conference call with reporters held this afternoon Huckabee cited an article from the Denver Post written by Bruce Finley as the source for his information on the number of illegal Pakistani immigrants who have entered the U.S.
“The number came from homeland security,” Huckabee said, referring to his speech this morning where he claimed that 660 illegal Pakistani immigrants entered the U.S. last year. “There are two stories that are published that report that number. One is Bruce Finley of the Denver Post, and there is also a Jim Pinkerton column in which that is mentioned. And that's where that figure, they were quoting Homeland Security on that number.”
Later in the call, Pinkerton said that his article referenced Finley’s, meaning that Finley’s March 2006 article is the source of the misleading information. Although that number is included in the Denver Post’s article in association with Pakistani immigrants, it is in reference to “non-Mexican migrants caught entering the United States illegally in fiscal years 2002 to 2005,” not the number that entered last year.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
"The Union Leader says John McCain has 'conviction' and 'Granite Staters want a candidate who will look them in the eye and tell them the truth,'" and announcer says, adding, "'John McCain has done that. Mitt Romney has not.' The Concord Monitor writes, 'If a candidate is a phony ... we'll know it. Mitt Romney is such a candidate.'"
From NBC's Andy Merten Giuliani is trying to bounce back from weeks off the radar of the national media (save for a health scare that garnered a day worth of less-than-positive coverage), look only at the cable news trifectas he's pulled two days in a row.
Notably, his media push comes on the heels of yesterday's assasination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, Giuliani is re-hitting the airwaves with his tough-on-terror message.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike and NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum LE MARS, Iowa -- On the same day the Romney campaign releases a contrast ad with McCain, he is up with another , similarly structured ad contrasting himself with Huckabee. Similar to the McCain ad, an announcer speaks over ominous music, attacking Huckabee on being "soft on government spending" and "1033 pardons and commutations."
Then another announcer, above hopeful music, touts Romney's accomplishments and depicts him as a traditional, hard-nosed Republican. "Mitt Romney held spending down, below inflation. Cut taxes. Zero pardons. The difference? Strong leadership?"
The ad also lambastes Huckabee for supporting in-state tuition for the children of illegal immigrants and granting more than 1,000 pardons and commutations as governor.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann
At the top of the list of candidates trying to catch the news wave is Richardson , who gave a policy address today in Des Moines about the churning turmoil in Pakistan. Richardson, the only candidate to have called for Pervez Musharraf to step down, told supporters that his Democratic rivals have "misplaced faith" in the existing government in the country, adding that America has "subsidized oppression for too long" by supporting its current president.
His campaign message? "We cannot afford another president who is a foreign policy novice," he said today. "The American people should not settle for untested leadership."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller DUBUQUE, Iowa -- Edwards gave an amped up version of his stump speech at the Colts Community Center as the campaign neared six days to the caucus.
After introductions from U.S. Rep. Bruce Braley and Iowa First Lady Mari Culver, both Edwards endorsers, the candidate stood to tell Iowans that there are “four truths” that need to be spoken before the caucus.
“Everything that makes America America is threatened today. The very things that make the promise of equal opportunity possible are at risk,” he said first. He added that the election is not just another round in a fight between political parties but an “epic struggle for the America we believe in.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Richardson v. Dodd Speaking on Morning Joe at 7:30 this morning, Bill Richardson once again called for Musharraf to step down. "He is deeply unpopular. Two-thirds of the Pakistani people want him out. He can't keep internal order in his country," Richardson said. "There's a provision in the Pakistani constitution that calls for an interim caretaker government of technocrats. I would urge Musharraf to set that up and then to hold elections as quickly as possible."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan
The
Obama campaign is launching two separate ads in New Hampshire and Iowa. In New Hampshire, “
Unify ,” is a 30-second spot that highlights the endorsements Obama has received as someone who can bridge the political divide in the United States. On screen lines from editorials in the Portsmouth Herald, the Boston Globe, the Valley News and the Nashua Telegraph appear as a voice over from Obama says, “We have a chance to bring the country together….”
In Iowa, “Listening ,” is a 60-second spot that attempts to reach out to Democrats, Republicans and Independents.
Obama opens the ad by saying, “America is listening. Not just Democrats but Republicans and Independents who’ve lost trust in their government but want to believe again.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC’s Ben Weltman
PELLA, Iowa --
Huckabee was at it again today trying to bring home the immigration issue to Iowa caucus-goers. At a Pizza Ranch here this morning, he told an audience of more than 250 people, "In light of what happened in Pakistan yesterday it's interesting that there were more Pakistanis who illegally crossed the border than of any other nationality except for those immediately south of our border -- 660 last year."
Afterwards at a media avail, he was asked where he had gotten his numbers. Huckabee replied, "It’s come largely from CIA numbers, and I'll get you the exact source but those are numbers that I got today from a briefing and I believe they are CIA and/or immigration numbers."
What strikes us most is his attempt to connect Pakistani illegal immigration in the United States to Benazir Bhutto 's assasination yesterday. "And so the way it affects that is that we need to understand that violence and terror is significant when it happens in Pakistan, it's more significant if it could happen in our own cities, and it happens if people can slip across our border and we have no control over them."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones said the Pakistani government does not have enough credibility to investigate Benazir Bhutto's death and is calling for an international probe into it.
She said the probe should perhaps be along the lines of what the UN is doing to look into Rafik Hariri's death in Lebanon. Clinton declined to call for Musharraf to step down, but said he should meet certain conditions.
"We should immediately move to free and fair elections," she said.
Clinton noted that Bhutto's party would need time to choose successor and that Nawaz Sharif, another opposition leader, has said he would not take part in the election.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum and Domenico Montanaro
"Born For" is airing in New Hampshire and “Native Son” airs in South Carolina, where Edwards was born.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum The Clinton campaign has a new ad running in Iowa called "President." She goes after President Bush and Wall Street for not doing more on the housing crisis and outlines her plan to combat it.
SCRIPT: ANNCR: What if we had a different president this year? Hillary Clinton called for action on America's housing crisis in March, in June, in August. George Bush and Wall Street did nothing.Since then, home prices have plummeted and millions may lose their homes. Hillary's plan: Freeze home foreclosures. Freeze rates on adjustable mortgages. Provide real tax relief for the middle class. When we choose a president next year, let's choose one that would have started fixing our economy this year.
From NBC’s Chuck Todd and Domenico Montanaro
The American Federation of Teachers has hit Iowa with a
mailer for Hillary
Clinton . It reads, “As teachers, we know when someone is prepared. The American Federation of Teacher knows: Hillary Clinton is prepared to deliver change.”
The mailer then cites her endorsement of the Des Moines Register and adds, “All of the candidates want change. The question is: Who has the right combination of skills, experience and determination to make change happen? Whether it’s education, health care or the economy, Hillary
Clinton is best prepared to take on the challenges we face -- and she’s ready to lead from Day One.
That’s why she is supported by the 1.4-million-member American Federation of Teachers.”
It closes with this: “Hillary is prepared to bring real change. Caucus for Hillary on January 3rd.”
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
ROCK RAPIDS, Iowa -- Romney began his first official bus tour this morning in western Iowa carrying the message, "we don't vote for yesterday, we do vote for tomorrow."
Part of Romney's rallying cry sounded his theme of optimism and went like this: "I'm convinced that the source of America's strength is the beliefs and the values of the American people. It's not goverment that makes us strong; it's our people. It's hardworking, God fearing, education loving, opportunity seeking, risk taking, patriotic American people."
The arc of his closing message covers both change and security. Sept. 11 crept back into his notes on national security and how it came to play in his experience handling the 2002 Winter Olympics. He informed the audience that the Salt Lake City games represented "the first event on the international stage... the first national special security event after 9/11," and that he "was able to turn those games around with the help of a lot of other great people and have safe games."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
The SEIU defended an affiliated pro-
Edwards 527, which is running ads in favor of Edwards. Alliance for New America, funded by the SEIU, is running $750,000 worth of TV advertising in Iowa. An adviser to the group is Edwards' former campaign manager, and the group and Edwards have faced scrutiny for their involvement.
“While SEIU did not create the Alliance for a New America, the union supports the entity because it shares our goal of sparking a discussion of how best address the concerns of working people in America,” writes Dave Regan, SEIU president, in a press release. “The union's support for the Alliance for a New America has been given in full accordance with both the spirit and letter of the laws governing 527 political organizations. There has been no coordination or discussion of our support for the organization's work with any individual candidate or campaign at any time.
“SEIU leaders will continue to separate any 527 activities from any discussions with candidates. Moreover, a thorough review of the ads reveals that the ads are focused on the issues and do not attack any candidates.”
*** UPDATE *** Caucus blog that "two campaign-finance advocacy groups -- Democracy 21 and the Campaign Legal Center -- argue that the Alliance for a New America may be violating other campaign finance rules."
The Edwards campaign responded that "As soon as SEIU officials informed us, later on, that some of their staff would no longer able to communicate with us about the campaign, we immediately stopped all conversation with them, as we legally had to."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro and Lauren Appelbaum
Romney and
McCain went up with dueling advertisements in New Hampshire. And both have very different tones.
Romney, the only candidate to run contrast TV ads so far this campaign season, is up with another -- this time against McCain, who won the Granite State primary in 2000. At least one poll showed McCain and Romney in a statistical tie in the state. Romney has lead by double-digits there for most of the campaign season.
"John McCain, an honorable man. But is he the right Republican for the future?" says an announcer over ominous music. The announcer then says McCain is against a repeal of the estate tax, voted against Bush tax cuts and "pushed to let every illegal immigrant stay here permanently."
Above more hopeful music, the announcer says, "Mitt Romney cut taxes and spending as Governor. He opposes amnesty for illegals. Mitt Romney. John McCain. There is a difference."
Continue reading to view the ads
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Six days to go: DES MOINES, Iowa -- With six days until the first nominating contest, all three Democratic front-runners are talking about change and about who can best deliver it. Yesterday, in his big closing argument speech -- overshadowed by Benazir Bhutto’s assassination -- Obama said in words aimed directly at Hillary Clinton, “The real gamble in this election is playing the same Washington game with the same Washington players and expecting a different result.” Clinton, meanwhile, says she’s the one who can best bring out change. “Some people think you can bring about change by demanding it and some people think you can bring about change by hoping for it,” she has said, referring to Edwards and Obama. “I think you bring about change by working hard for it." And today, Edwards gives his closing argument, in which he’s expected say (in words aimed squarely at Obama), “Compromise and conciliation is the academic theory of change. It just doesn’t work in the real world. Fighting for conviction is the historic reality of change.” The AP’s Ron Fournier nails it in his latest column: “Most voters want it. The candidates all promise it. The presidential race hinges on it. But nobody can quite agree on the meaning of the single most important word of the election: Change.” And don't miss Obama's comment to Fournier calling Clinton a "caretaker" president.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on how the death of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto will affect the presidential campaign efforts. *** Bhutto fallout: The big political news yesterday, of course, was Bhutto’s death and the candidates’ reactions to it. Have we seen this movie before? Does it feel like this race has now fundamentally shifted, issues-wise, almost like it did when the bin Laden tape came out right before the 2004 general election? If the caucuses were set to take place in the next 48-72 hours, this could be correct. But the caucuses are six days away. Remember that a 24-hour news cycle can make a story like this seem HUGE in the moment -- and then it disappears soon after. Will anything else advance the story into the weekend? Better yet, will other campaigns (say Giuliani’s or McCain’s) try and keep this in the news? Or will this story fade faster than we realize because of the weekend and the New Year’s holiday?
*** Here comes Richardson: Bill Richardson is definitely trying to keep the story in the news. Today, in Iowa, he gives a speech on Pakistan and the global threats the US faces. And, as he did yesterday, he will once again call for Musharraf to step down. ”Yesterday, I called for President Musharraf to step down,” he is expected to say. “Today, as a nation I am calling on the administration to stand firm for our ideals in the face of terrorism and in respect for the ideals Bhutto stood for. Anything less would send a dangerous signal to the world that terrorism alters our resolve.”
*** Who benefited and who didn’t: The obvious CW says that Clinton and Biden (on the Democratic side) and Giuliani and McCain (on the GOP side) perhaps benefit the most from Bhutto’s death and the instability in Pakistan. Clinton, after all, was already on message pre-Bhutto, as she talked about the unexpected that could happen earlier this week. And Biden has a TV ad up that’s focused on an empty chair in the Oval Office predicting that an unexpected moment will test the next president. McCain seemed the most comfortable yesterday, contrasting his experience with the rest of the field and singling out other candidates by name. And Giuliani was everywhere yesterday and today. On the "hurt" side of the equation, Huckabee seemed to be the candidate least comfortable talking about this issue. He even tied yesterday's assassination with immigration last night, which seemed, well, disjointed. Huck also slipped when he wondered whether there would still be martial law in Pakistan (martial law, however, was lifted in that country two weeks ago).
*** Politicize this: Edwards and Obama also seemed less sure-footed, though both attempted to prove their foreign policy credentials, with Edwards going so far to brag that he talked to Musharraf yesterday. By the way, imagine if Clinton had said that yesterday… Something tells us there would have been a lot of criticism of politicizing the incident. Of course, there was criticism of politicization: Obama strategist David Axelrod seemed to link Bhutto’s killing and the instability in Pakistan to the Iraq war (and Clinton’s vote for it), while Evan Bayh said the situation showed the need for electing a president with “seasoning.” On CNN, Obama was pressed hard about Axelrod's comments, and he didn't back down from them completely.
*** TV ads everywhere: The TV ad barrage in Iowa really has to be experienced first-hand. You can't really understand it until you spend 30 minutes watching a local newscast here in Des Moines, where every single TV ad during the commercial breaks is from a presidential candidate or a group pushing a presidential candidate. Frankly, nothing breaks out -- we're guessing the Huckabee Christmas ad did have a real impact at the time, because it was far different than anything else on the air. Clinton has an ad in which no one speaks, and that stands out from the crowd. It's a real challenge to media consultants to come up with something that pops. And this may explain why Clinton is going with buying two minutes of ad time the day before the caucuses (something George Allen tried in 2006), because that could break through the clutter. It will be the first time any candidate has attempted to break out of the 30- or 60-second box. With all this money on both sides, isn't it surprising no one's tried the Ross Perot 30-minute paid town hall? Or something like that?
*** On the trail: Once again, almost everyone (Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Giuliani, Huckabee, McCain, Obama, Richardson, Romney, and Thompson) is in Iowa. Elsewhere, Giuliani -- before he heads to Iowa -- picks up an endorsement in Orlando, FL; McCain later travels to New Hampshire; and Paul also campaigns in the Granite State.
Countdown to Iowa: 6 days
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The Washington Post's Kornblut and Murray note that the Bhutto assassination came just hours before Obama was to deliver his closing argument. For Clinton, "Bhutto's death helped underscore the line she has been driving home for months -- about who is best suited to lead the nation at a time of international peril. In her comments Thursday, Clinton described Bhutto in terms Obama (D-Ill.) could not: as a fellow mother, a pioneering woman following in a man's footsteps, and a longtime peer on the world stage.”
“The differing reactions of Clinton and Obama to the assassination crystallized the debate between the two just a week before Iowans will decide the first contest in the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination."
The AP's Espo looks at how the Bhutto assassination could affect the presidential campaign in the waning days of the Iowa caucuses. McCain and Clinton "who have made experience a cornerstone of their campaigns, said the murder was proof of a need for a president who is ready to take command." Clinton "declined to be drawn into a discussion about the impact" on Barack Obama. But "McCain was not so reticent about comparing his experience with that of other GOP contenders. ‘My theme has been throughout this campaign that I'm the one with the experience, the knowledge and the judgment. So perhaps it may serve to enhance those credentials to make people understand that I've been to Pakistan, I know Musharraf, I can pick up the phone and call him. I knew Benazir Bhutto.’”
CONTINUED >>
A new Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll shows a tight race in Iowa with Clinton leading at 29%, followed by Obama at 26% and Edwards at 25%. Yet in New Hampshire, Obama leads with 32% -- followed by Clinton at 30% and Edwards at 18%.
On the attributes front, the poll found similar results as other surveys. "Clinton is viewed as most experienced, best prepared to be president and most qualified to handle a range of important issues, including Iraq, terrorism, the economy and health care. She also is viewed as the least honest candidate and less likely to produce change in Washington than Obama, 46. By contrast, Obama, is viewed by both Iowa and New Hampshire voters as an agent of change, the more honest candidate and most likely to tell voters what he thinks rather than what they want to hear."
On the GOP side, the poll finds Huckabee with a very large lead over Romney in Iowa, 37%-23%. In New Hampshire, Romney leads big over McCain, 34%-21%, followed by Giuliani at 14%, and Huckabee at 9%. "The poll shows stark differences among Iowa caucus-goers and New Hampshire primary voters on religion. In Iowa, Republicans by almost 3 to 1 say Huckabee's religious beliefs are a positive factor. Almost half of these Iowa voters say Romney's Mormon faith is a negative.
CONTINUED >>
Nationally, Huckabee and Giuliani are in a statistical tie in a national AP-Yahoo! poll with Huckabee at 22% and Giuliani 21%. McCain places third place with 14%, followed by Romney 13% and Thompson 11%.
GIULIANI: On any other day, this New York Times story -- which details Giuliani's role in helping the OxyContin drug maker deal with a government and PR disaster -- could be a big deal. But this now might only come back to hurt Giuliani in a general if a Dem foe brings it up.
Giuliani -- "suffering from a slide in the polls -- unveiled his first TV ad invoking the Sept. 11 attacks and showing images of firefighters at Ground Zero," the New York Post writes. McCain took a swipe at Giuliani "'As far as I know, Mayor Giuliani has never been to Iraq,' McCain, a Vietnam POW, said while stumping at an Elks Lodge in Des Moines. He praised Giuliani's 9/11 performance but said it had 'little to do with national security.'"
CONTINUED >>
In case you are wondering, it appears Al Gore may not endorse in the Democratic primary.
Nationally, Clinton leads 47%-25% over Obama in a new AP-Yahoo! poll . Edwards takes third with 13%.
CLINTON: The New Hampshire Union Leader profiles the New York senator. "Clinton is out to convince voters she will be the president who can bring affordable health care coverage to all Americans. At most campaign stops, health care is the first topic to come up. But for some voters, questions still exist about the viability of her plan: providing to everyone in the country the same level of coverage enjoyed by federal employees, including members of Congress like herself."
EDWARDS: The war of words on change continues with Edwards today making what appears to be a direct response to Obama's closing argument from Thursday. From an excerpt: “Nobody who takes their money and defends the broken system is going to bring change. And, unfortunately, nobody who thinks we can just sit down and talk them into compromise is going to bring change either. Why on earth would we expect the corporate powers and their lobbyists -- who make billions by selling out the middle-class -- to just give up their power because we ask them nicely? Compromise and conciliation is the academic theory of change. It just doesn’t work in the real world. Fighting for conviction is the historic reality of change.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray noted Clinton surrogate Evan Bayh arguing that the Bhutto assassination showed the need for electing a president with “seasoning.”
Well, courtesy of Time , here's top Obama strategist David Axelrod seeming to link Bhutto's death and the Iraq war. "Bhutto’s death will 'call into issue the judgment: who’s made the right judgments,' Axelrod said. 'Obviously, one of the reasons that Pakistan is in the distress that it’s in is because al-Qaeda is resurgent, has become more powerful within that country and that’s a consequence of us taking the eye off the ball and making the wrong judgment in going into Iraq. That’s a serious difference between these candidates and I’m sure that people will take that into consideration.'" via CNN , Axelrod appeared to back away from that comment. "'I believe our policies in Iraq have had a direct impact on events in Pakistan and Afghanistan, but I would not suggest there is a straight line relationship between the events of today in Pakistan and anyone’s particular vote,' he said. 'What I was pointing out was the difference in judgment at the time. Obama thought that the war would have a negative impact in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and that seems relevant right now.'"
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan
"Obviously today we just want to express our sympathies to the Pakistani people and the Bhutto family about the assassination," he said. "I've been saying for some time that we've got a very big problem there."
He elaborated: “Not only do we have a president who has acted in an anti-democratic fashion the past, but we also have the rise of Islamic militants in the northwest provinces that are going back and forth between the borders of Afghanistan and Pakistan.”
Obama added that Al Qaeda now has a base in Pakistan and American intelligence says that the group is stronger there now than they were before 2001.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller Edwards spoke in Waukon this afternoon about having calls in to Pakistan’s President Pervez Musharraf . Then, at his second event in Decorah, he told Iowans that he got his call returned.
“He called me,” Edwards said, “because I told the ambassador I’d like to speak to him. I met him a few years ago, which I think I told you earlier, and we had a conversation in which I urged him to continue the democratization process. He told me, he gave me his assurances that he intended to do that, and we also spoke about having international independent investigators allowed into the country for transparency purposes, for credibility purposes, and we spoke briefly about the elections.”
Edwards is the only candidate to have said publicly that he received a call from Musharraf today. Edwards did not join in the fight between rivals Clinton and Obama over which candidate has the best foreign policy advisers, and asked what this conversation does for his own foreign policy credibility, Edwards referred back to the complexity of the issue.
“I think that the most important thing is to understand what’s actually happening within Pakistan, the complex nature of the problems there, and to be visionary about what America needs to be doing,” he told reporters.
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike MANCHESTER, N.H. -- Romney switched up his stump speech today and even kept notes with him to offer his closing remarks to New Hampshire voters, but his efforts were overshadowed by the death of Benazir Bhutto.
Reporters buzzed after he made a statement early this morning about Bhutto that he didn't offer his condolences, which he made certain to do later -- both in his remarks before supporters at the American Credit Union Museum and in a second session with reporters.
He refused to discuss what he would do in a hypothetical situation, but he summed up his message that the key is "to develop that kind of process and develop comprehensive strategies to help support moderate voices within the world of Islam so that we don’t have to be responding to crises."
Romney also said he didn't have the classified information available to offer much depth of insight into the situation, but he pointed out that he has been critical of Musharraf in the past for his decision to impose martial law in Pakistan.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Andy Merten Clinton gave a more personal account of her relationship with the late Benazir Bhutto , which dates back to her years as First Lady.
“I met her young children, her husband, her mother -- a lot of her family members,” she said while campaigning in Denison, IA this afternoon. “We stayed in touch throughout the years, met on several occasions, always talked about her commitment to bringing democracy back to Pakistan, and we talked about our children.”
Maintaining a somber tone throughout her opening remarks, the presidential hopeful continued: “This is a terrible loss -- certainly on a personal level -- for those of us who knew her, who were impressed by her commitment, her dedication, her willingness to pick up the mantle of her father, who was also assassinated. It’s a terrible, terrible, tragedy, but it’s also a tremendous loss for the people of Pakistan.”
Although her remarks this afternoon sounded more like a eulogy of the former prime minister, Clinton this morning also warned of the geopolitical implications of her assassination. “The world once again is reminded of the dangers facing those who pursue democracy and free elections in Pakistan and elsewhere -- in areas that are rife with conflict and violence and extremism,” she said at her first stop in Lawton. And at both stops, Clinton pledged to assist the future democratization of Pakistan, both from Capitol Hill and perhaps the Oval Office.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Clinton has a new
television advertisement in South Carolina that begins airing today. In it, an announcer touts Clinton's work in providing health-care coverage for children, giving National Guard members access to health care, and for protecting Social Security. "Hillary spent 35 years standing up for people," the narrator says. "As president, she'll stand up for you."
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann DES MOINES, Iowa -- If there's a safe space between politics and policy, Biden stayed in it until the last question of the day. A somber Biden appeared this morning at a hastily assembled press conference to address the assassination of Pakistani political figure Benazir Bhutto .
Calling her death "a genuine tragedy," the senator called for a transparent investigation into the attack and said that he had twice asked Pakistan's president to provide better protection to the slain Bhutto.
"This fall," he told reporters, "I twice urged President Musharraf to provide her with better security." He added, “The failure to protect Mrs. Bhutto raises a lot of hard questions for the government and the security services that have to be answered.”
Asked if his statement implied that Musharraf's government may have been negligent or even complicit in Bhutto's assassination, Biden responded that he cannot comment on any blame to be laid at the feet of the Pakistani government without knowing all the facts of the attack.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli and Athena Jones
But that didn't stop Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh (D) -- campaigning here on Clinton's behalf -- from arguing that the assasination showed the need for a president with “seasoning.”
Bayh, a red-state Democrat who endorsed Clinton in September, actually learned of Bhutto’s killing when one of the two-dozen voters gathered here asked him for his reaction. “There is a deep strain of radicalism,” he said, “and this assassination is a manifestation of that.”
Bayh then related his experience on a trip to the region with Clinton, saying she had already met several of the leaders the congressional delegation was meeting with. “I have seen firsthand in that very country the knowledge that she brings to the table, the respect with which she is held by people across the political spectrum," he said. "Knowing these individuals, knowing their background, their strengths and their weaknesses, and it just gives you a tremendous leg up in dealing with some of the problems that we face.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Christina Jamison and NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Per
Clinton spokesman Jay Carson, the campaign has a two-minute ad buy on every Iowa TV station's 6 o'clock news on January 2, the day before the caucuses. It's being billed as "a very succinct version" of her closing argument.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan DES MOINES, IA -- To a packed room here filled with supporters and the national media, Obama laid out the closing arguments for why he should be president of the United States, basing his candidacy in a deep, personal faith for a better America born from his own personal story.
"The truth is, you can have the right kind of experience and the wrong kind of experience. Mine is rooted in the real lives of real people, and it will bring real results if we have the courage to change. I believe deeply in those words. But they are not mine. They were Bill Clinton's in 1992, when Washington insiders questioned his readiness to lead," Obama told the crowd to laughs and cheers.
Saying that the change he provides is what "Washington needs now," Obama held his opponents' feet to the fire as he ran through a litany of distinctions or attacks -- nine by our count -- on why he should be chosen to be the next president of the United States over Sens. Edwards or Clinton , although he didn't mention those rivals by name.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan campaign just released the prepared remarks of the speech today that's being billed as his closing remarks before the Iowa caucuses. By our count, there are at least nine shots/contrasts/digs/jabs -- whatever you want to call them -- at Clinton and Edwards , although he mentions neither by name.
AIMED AT CLINTON?
2. "We can't afford the same politics of fear that tells Democrats that the only way to look tough on national security is to talk, act, and vote like George Bush Republicans; that invokes 9/11 as a way to scare up votes instead of a challenge that should unite all Americans to defeat our real enemies."
3. "The real gamble in this election is playing the same Washington game with the same Washington players and expecting a different result. And that's a risk we can't take. Not this year. Not when the stakes are this high."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani is going back to the basics, invoking 9/11 imagery and Islamic terrorism in an effort to galvanize voters in Florida. He is doing it in a new ad , in which he relays the story of the “Greatest Generation” that he has been saying for several days. And he does it by picking his audiences, reaching out to veterans and law enforcement in the Miami area Thursday.
The ad, entitled “Freedom,” has Giuliani describing the Greatest Generation, as exemplified in Tom Brokaw’s book, and then saying those who helped at the World Trade Center were the children and grandchildren of those World War II heroes. “They have the same resolve, the same understanding.”
While Giuliani is certainly reaching out to his base, the ad can be seen as risky. Giuliani has been criticized for running on the events of Sept. 11, 2001, and using images from that day could rankle some victims’ families and others who will argue it is in bad taste.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Here's a wrap up of the candidates' statements not mentioned on First Read so far from Obama , Clinton , McCain and Kucinich and as well as New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg :
OBAMA: "I am shocked and saddened by the death of Benazir Bhutto in this terrorist atrocity. She was a respected and resilient advocate for the democratic aspirations of the Pakistani people. We join with them in mourning her loss, and stand with them in their quest for democracy and against the terrorists who threaten the common security of the world."
CLINTON: "I am profoundly saddened and outraged by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, a leader of tremendous political and personal courage. I came to know Mrs. Bhutto over many years, during her tenures as Prime Minister and during her years in exile. Mrs. Bhutto's concern for her country, and her family, propelled her to risk her life on behalf of the Pakistani people. She returned to Pakistan to fight for democracy despite threats and previous attempts on her life and now she has made the ultimate sacrifice. Her death is a tragedy for her country and a terrible reminder of the work that remains to bring peace, stability, and hope to regions of the globe too often paralyzed by fear, hatred, and violence.
*** UPDATE *** Edwards, Richardson, Biden and Huckabee weigh in
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney made the following statement on Bhutto's death in Pakistan. "We have all heard with great alarm and concern the reports of additional tragedy in Pakistan. At this stage, there are conflicting reports about whether Madame Bhutto has been killed or not. But there is, of course, the very risk that she has been killed," he said.
"This points out again the extraordinary reality of global violent radical jihadism. We don't know who is responsible for this attack but there is no question that the violence we see throughout the world is violence which is not limited to Iran, excuse me, Iraq, and Afghanistan -- but is more global in nature. And this type of loss of life points out again the need for our nation and other civilized nations of the West and of the civilized world to come together to support moderate Islamic leaders, moderate Islamic people -- to help them in their effort to reject the violent and the extreme. The world is very much at risk by virtue of these radical violent extremists, and we must come together in an effort in great haste and with grat earnestness to help overcome the threat of the spread of radical, violent Jihad."
From NBC's Mark Murray, Andrea Mitchell, and John Yang Clinton and Obama sparring over Pakistan and dealing with unsavory world leaders, or the GOP contenders emphasizing the specter of a nuclear Iran.
Yet in the last month, with the Iowa caucuses now just seven days away, foreign affairs has virtually disappeared from the campaign trail. But does Benazir Bhutto's assassination change things -- at least today?
In crass political terms, today's focus on Pakistan would seem to benefit Giuliani , because it raises the prominence of national security and terrorism versus domestic concerns. Indeed, Giuliani was the first presidential candidate to release a statement on Bhutto's death. "Her murderers must be brought to justice and Pakistan must continue the path back to democracy and the rule of law," he said. "Her death is a reminder that terrorism anywhere -- whether in New York, London, Tel-Aviv or Rawalpindi -- is an enemy of freedom. We must redouble our efforts to win the Terrorists' War on Us." (This statement coincides with the new 9/11 TV ad the Giuliani campaign begins running today.)
The attention on Pakistan would also seem to help McCain (whose national security credentials trump those of his GOP rivals) and possibly hurt Huckabee (whose public service was as governor of Arkansas). And what about Hillary Clinton, who is stressing her experience in an uncertain world versus Obama's message of change? Or even Biden?
*** UPDATE ***
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro *** Iowa “madness”: Exactly one week until the caucuses… Yesterday, in Iowa, Obama sharpened his attack on Clinton like never before (on secrecy and on the Clinton attack line that electing him would be risky). The question lots of folks are going to want to know today is whether Obama was actually saying voters who thought Clinton would bring change are “mad.” Obviously, he'd say no, but he did use the term "madness," which some might argue is insulting to some Clinton supporters. And today in Des Moines, Obama gives what is being billed as his closing speech, which will focus on change. Meanwhile, in her speeches and even in unveiling a new TV ad that begins running today, Clinton yesterday was touting her experience. But she also said she’s already changed so she can bring change. Read between those lines…
*** Romney on the attack -- and defense : Largely lost in yesterday’s focus on Iowa -- particularly Clinton’s and Obama’s speeches there -- was Romney on the attack in New Hampshire, blasting McCain on immigration. That came after the former governor had already whacked McCain on taxes and Huckabee on Bush’s foreign policy. But while was jabbing his GOP rivals, a counterpunch came from another editorial board: the influential New Hampshire Union Leader. Romney's challenges in both Iowa and New Hampshire appear to be greater by the day. Can he keep being the lone candidate staying on the attack, and also be the lone candidate taking hits from both candidates and these editorial pages? And don’t miss Romney’s statement that he could finish second in New Hampshire. “People usually say there are three tickets out of Iowa and then there are two tickets out of New Hampshire,” he said. “Everybody wants to win and I'd like to come in first. If I can't come in first, then I'd like to come in second.”
*** Busted? Did Edwards get caught coordinating with that pro-Edwards 527 that is running TV ads in Iowa? That's the implication in today’s New York Times , which reports on an email message from the union leaders who created the 527 suggesting “that they were talking with Edwards campaign officials about ‘what specific kinds of support they would like to see from us’ just as they were planning to create an outside group to advertise in early primary states with ‘a serious 527 legal structure.’” The 527’s ties to Edwards already smelled a little fishy, given that his 2004 campaign manager -- Nick Baldick -- was running the group. Does this New York Times report make things smell a bit worse for the candidate who is attacking the influence of special interests? This could be a bigger problem for Edwards in New Hampshire, where the issue of campaign reform is always on the minds of those "live free and die" voters.
*** A-hunting we will go : Move over John McCain, nobody does photo-ops better than Huckabee. His bird-hunting visual in Iowa yesterday got the shot in on Romney that they campaign wanted. (Remember Romney’s “varmits” and I’ve-been-a-hunter-all-my-life remark?) And by the way, Huckabee is now starting to rack up some more mainstream endorsements, like nods from Florida’s Senate majority whip and former Wyoming Gov. Jim Geringer. By the way, last week's focus on the "Christian" Christmas ad by Huckabee was thought by some to alienate the so-called "bubba" support Huckabee was getting from non-religious conservative blue-collar GOP voters. Yesterday's hunting photo-op may have been about Huckabee trying to stop the bleeding among those folks where his populist/anti-Wall Street message had been resonating.
*** Here comes 9/11. But what about Iowa? Now with the medical concerns behind him -- after last night’s statement from his doctor – Giuliani is now trying to spark his campaign with a new TV ad that plays up 9/11. The ad airs on broadcast Florida and New Hampshire outlets, as well as on Fox News cable nationally. What's left unsaid by the campaign -- but what the ad buy clearly indicates -- is that Giuliani is basically skipping Iowa. Sure, he'll campaign there a little bit, but he's not making a serious final push. He's done some radio and some mail in the previous months. But as the rubber hits the road, it doesn't appear he's going to make a real Iowa effort. Speaking of making real Iowa efforts, McCain's campaign released his schedule through January 4 and he'll be splitting time between Iowa and New Hampshire. We're still waiting on Giuliani's schedule post-December 30. Will he spend any part of next week in Iowa? If this TV ad buy is a clue, then probably not.
*** On the trail : Iowa remains the place to be: Clinton continues her “Big Challenges, Real Solutions: Time To Pick A President” tour, visiting Lawton, Denison, Carroll, and Guthrie Center; Dodd is in Waukon, West Union, Grinnell, and Des Moines; Edwards hits Waukon, Decorah, Waverly, and Waterloo; Huckabee holds a “We The People” event tonight in West Des Moines; McCain attends a rally in Des Moines before traveling to Clear Lake, Cedar Rapids, Waterloo, and Cedar Falls; Obama continues his “Stand For Change” tour, visiting Des Moines (where he gives his big speech), Nevada, Marshalltown, Toledo, and Vinton; Paul has several events in Des Moines; Richardson is in Denison, Carroll, Jefferson, Boone, and Story City; and Thompson hits Urbandale, Osceola, Chariton, and Knoxville. Elsewhere, Huckabee is in Florida before he travels to Iowa; Giuliani also is in the Sunshine State, who visits Fort Lauderdale and Miami; and Romney remains in New Hampshire. Also, Michelle Obama stumps on her husband’s behalf in Iowa.
Countdown to Iowa: 7 days
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The Des Moines Register’s Yepsen previews the Iowa caucuses and writes about the implications of third place. “Third-place showings are likely to hold exactly opposite meanings in the two parties this cycle. On the Democratic side, a third-place finish will severely wound a leading candidate, perhaps mortally. On the Republican side, it just might provide a shot of political steroid for a lagging candidate as the race heads to New Hampshire.”
The Washington Post sums up the Dem race: "The issues of experience and change have defined the Democratic race for nearly a year, and the dichotomy continued to dominate as the three Democratic front-runners hit the campaign trail running after a Christmas break. Sen. Barack Obama (Ill.), who plans to make his endgame pitch in a speech [today], urged voters to ask themselves, ‘Do you believe in change?’ Former senator John Edwards (N.C.) detoured through New Hampshire before a planned return to Iowa, arguing that his is a more radical call for change than Obama's. Clinton and Obama are launching television ads in the state to bolster their arguments as the three remain tightly bunched in surveys."
Obama will give a speech in Des Moines today that will provide a closing argument for why a junior senator from Illinois, with two years of national experience, should leapfrog over more experienced members of his own party to win the Democratic nomination and become president of the United States, NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan reports. Yesterday, he previewed that speech. “Everybody now is talking about change. If imitation is the sincerest form of flattery then we're doing pretty good here because in the beginning of this campaign we said we were going to bring about change, we're going to do things differently and now everybody is talking about change," he said.
CONTINUED >>
On the trail in the Granite State yesterday, Romney continued to be the candidate acting as if he's got the most to lose on January 3 and January 8 as he directly attacked a rival . "Romney attacked Mr. McCain for his support of legislation that would have allowed some illegal immigrants an opportunity to gain legal status, as well as his opposition to Mr. Bush’s tax cuts in 2001. ‘I don’t recall Senator McCain saying he was wrong to say that all illegal aliens should be able to stay here permanently, or that he was wrong to vote against the Bush tax cuts,’ Mr. Romney said. ‘I think he was.’”
The Boston Globe notes the sharp elbow at McCain and also covers the latest editorial board to write an anti-Romney endorsement -- this one from the New Hampshire Union Leader. “The Union Leader, which has endorsed McCain for president, wrote in its editorial: ‘In this primary, the more Mitt Romney speaks, the less believable he becomes. That is why Granite Staters who have listened attentively are now returning to John McCain.” tried to straddle the experience and change arguments . "Edwards contrasted himself with his Democratic rivals, saying that he alone had the kind of experience to fight the special interests that have become the target of his campaign-closing speech, as well as his final advertisements. ‘You better send someone in there who is ready for the battle,’ he said.”
CONTINUED >>
BIDEN : NBC's Lauren Appelbaum notes Joe Biden's closing argument in Iowa yesterday. Ultimately, he made the case for the Democratic Party to choose a candidate who can stand his own against Republican attacks. "You know the routine. You know what's coming," he said. "Close your eyes. Who do you want in the ring taking on Rudy Giuliani or John McCain or Mitt Romney or Huckabee? Who do you think can stand toe to toe with them? It may not be me, but that's what you have to decide. Who is the person that is going to be able to stand there and turn it, turn it on them?" (Interestingly, doesn't Biden's closing argument sound like Clinton's?)
His campaign unveiled a new TV ad that begins with a shot of the Oval Office, hitting on the same theme about who is ready.
The Delaware senator also continues to pick up endorsements from Iowa lawmakers. Yesterday, State Reps. Dennis Cohoon of Burlington and Eric Palmer of Oskaloosa became the 15th and 16th Iowa State legislators to back Biden, according to his campaign.
CLINTON : The Washington Post says that Clinton has changed her campaign theme a few times these last few months. "Clinton has shifted from theme to theme in the final weeks of a race that has remained consistently up for grabs, but she seemed to settle back on her original experience argument after two months of attempting to show voters a softer side. Yesterday she criticized Obama's character and questioned whether other Democratic contenders are equipped to beat the eventual Republican nominee. Bill Clinton, introducing his wife, promised that ‘if she is the Democratic nominee, I believe she will win the election, and win by a handsome margin.’”
CONTINUED >>
GIULIANI : While Giuliani's first TV ads didn't really mention 9/11, this new one -- which will air nationally on cable as well as on broadcast in Florida and New Hampshire -- doesn't shy away from 9/11 mentions. "In Giuliani's ad ... he recalls reading ‘The Greatest Generation’ shortly before the Sept. 11 attacks, and said he equates the courage and heroism of firefighters and others after those attacks with the bravery of the World War II generation.”
“With images from Sept. 11 on the screen, Giuliani warns terrorists not to underestimate America's resolve. ‘Our democracy means we disagree with each other,’ he says, ‘but when you come and try and take away from us our freedom, when you try and come here and kill our people, we're one and we're going to stand up to you and we're going to prevail.’”
More: "Giuliani's new ad comes as his candidacy faces growing questions about a strategy that has played down Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina in favor of a major push to win Florida's Jan. 29 primary and then sweep many of the big states that hold contests on Feb. 5. Giuliani spent Wednesday in Florida, where he met with veterans at an American Legion post in Largo.”
CONTINUED >>
This news will obviously take some of the campaign stories off the front-page headlines: “Pakistan opposition leader Benazir Bhutto was assassinated Thursday in a suicide bombing that also killed at least 20 others at a campaign rally,” the AP reports.
Per NBC’s Bob Windrem, this was the third assassination attempt on Bhutto. There have also been two assassination attempts on President Musharraf and one on Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz.
Per NBC’s John Yang, don't expect to see President Bush today, the first full day of this 69th visit as president to his 1,583-acre Prairie Chapel Ranch outside Crawford, TX. Deputy White House Press Secretary Scott Stanzel will brief the traveling press corps at their home-away-from-home, the gym of the Crawford Middle School. It's billed as a gaggle, the less-formal off-camera, on-the-record session usually held mornings at the White House. But it's the only session today and the first five minutes are on-camera. So it's a combination gaggle and briefing--what Cox Newspapers White House correspondent Ken Herman calls a "griefing."
From NBC/NJ’s Athena Jones Clinton began her final push before the Jan. 3 caucuses at an event in southeastern Iowa with her husband, daughter and former Iowa Gov. and First Lady Tom and Christie Vilsack , by stressing the problems the next president will face the day they are inaugurated.
"That person will go to the Oval office and on the desk in the Oval office will be a stack of problems," she said. "We know that the next president will face a daunting agenda."
It was a theme that emerged in the days before Christmas, as the New York senator, her husband and surrogates like Gen. Wesley Clark and childhood friends sought to combine the change and experience arguments while also showing Clinton's softer side.
Bill Clinton , who was set to split off and stump in several towns on his wife's behalf, introduced her by saying he wouldn't want her in this race if he didn't think she could win and arguing that it was important to vote for Hillary because this was a time of opportunity in the world, but also a time of great uncertainty, with rampant economic inequality at home and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan to deal with abroad.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike MERRIMACK -- While most of his rivals are traversing Iowa today, or in Giuliani’s case, Florida, Romney has the media following Republicans in New Hampshire almost all to himself -- which he may just need given recent hard-hitting critiques of candidacy both in the New Hampshire Union Leader and the Concord Monitor.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani said his doctor will release a statement today, hoping to put an end to questions about his health that have been dogging him since he was hospitalized a week ago.
Speaking at a Veterans of Foreign Wars post, the former New York City mayor continued to say he was in good health, and added that his doctor would release more information today. But he refused to name his doctor ahead of the statement or say what caused the headaches he experienced while campaigning in Missouri last week.
“I’m feeling great. I feel terrific,” he said. “I feel fully recovered. I took a couple of days to be, you know, 100%, although I campaigned all weekend and I campaigned pretty actively. I feel terrific and the doctor will put out a statement, very shortly, I think, and explain that every one of the tests came back normal.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann Clinton's success on Jan. 3rd? Her campaign is sending out caucus education mailers with an almost stern message: "Just agreeing to support Hillary isn't good enough."
In a final push to turn out voters, especially the first-time caucus-goers that both Obama and Clinton are depending on, Team Hillary is making sure that anyone with a mailbox is saving the date. The fliers demystify the process, calling it "a great chance to catch up with your neighbors."
"How hard is that?" asks one of the mailers.
"Just agreeing to support Hillary isn't good enough," scolds another. "If you want Hillary Clinton as our next president, you have to participate in the Iowa caucus. It's as simple as that."
"If just one in three supporters fails to show up at the caucus, we won't be successful in Iowa," it goes on to warn. "Coming to the caucus is that important!"
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro Clinton is up with another ad in Iowa and New Hampshire and makes the case for her presidency, a closing argument of sorts. There are no words spoken in the ad, except for her approval statement.
But with orchestral music in the background, words appear on the screen. In all, the ad reads: "A nation at war, troubles at home [over a "foreclosure" sign], America at a crossroads [over the national debt "scoreboard"] demands a leader with a steady hand [over a presidential profile of Hillary Clinton], who will weather the storms [over a home torn apart by Hurricane Katrina], solve our problems [over a picture of a baby being tended to by a doctor], rebuild our middle class [ironworker], and renew our greatness [boy looking out over the horizon, the sun piercing through an American flag]. Hillary Clinton.
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann Obama 's health care plan, Hillary -backers AFSCME aren't backing down. They're out with a new iteration in a negative mail campaign that slams Obama's "Band-Aid solution" and gripes that "15 million Americans can't afford to wait for Obama's actions to catch up to his promises."
Like the previous mailer, this one cites a quote from Edwards (whose team has disavowed the attack). The eye-catching new addition? A take-a-number machine spitting out a card printed with the number 15,000,000.
"There are 15 million reasons why Barack Obama's health care plan is not up to the job," reads the text.
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan Obama will give a speech in Des Moines tomorrow that will provide a closing argument for why a junior senator from Illinois, with two years of national experience should leapfrog over more experienced members of his own party to win the Democratic nomination and become president of the United States.
Today in Mason City, voters got a preview of that argument as Obama added new language and a rationale for why he should be president to his stump speech.
*** UPDATE *** The Clinton campaign responds.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Carrie Dann OSCEOLA, IOWA -- Southern charmer Mike Huckabee , in the midst of a push to show his steely resolve in the face of direct attacks from one-time frontrunner Mitt Romney , polishes up his gun and sets off into the snowy fields of Iowa for an old-fashioned pheasant hunt.
It's just too easy.
On a trip rich with metaphorical potential, Huckabee donned a blaze-orange vest and ventured out into an icy Iowa countryside, with trusty bird-dog "Dude" and about 15 shivering members of the press corps in tow. It turns out that the governor, who says that he's been a hunter since childhood, is a pretty decent shot. He shot one of the three pheasants knocked down by the hunting party (the other two reportedly met their bird-maker at the hands of Huckabee Campaign Manager Chip Saltsman.)
The imagery of a gun-totin' politico wasn't lost on journalists, who peppered Huckabee with joking prompts for analogies between his feathered victims and his Republican competitors. The jolly gov, who's known for his sense of humor, was more than happy to comply.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Lauren Appelbaum Edwards ad paid for by a 527 being advised by the candidate’s former campaign manager.
The ad begins by laying out stark problems: “The price of dependence on foreign oil. Health care in crisis. Government run by corporate lobbyists. Isn't it time someone had a plan to take them on?”
It then breaks down what is described as Edwards’ plan to combat these issues.
The group, Alliance for a New America, is funded mostly by local SEIUs, a group which has endorsed Edwards. Mundy Ketowitz Media got the bulk of the money ($750,000) with music and postproduction outsourced, according to FEC documents. In who's given to the group, it's mostly SEIU and one contribution from UNITE HERE. Here’s how the money breaks down: Ohio SEIU ($122,000), California SEIU ($400,000), local SEIU in Los Angeles ($100,000), local SEIU in Oregon ($60,000), local SEIU in St. Paul ($18,000) and Minneapolis ($36,000), Chicago UNITE HERE board ($100,000), NAGE COPE ($50,000), which is the political education arm of the National Association of Government Employees, which is also SEIU. COPE stands for Committee on Public Education.
CONTINUE READING TO VIEW THE AD AND SCRIPT
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro McCain in a statistical dead heat with Romney and renewed campaigning in Iowa, McCain is up with a new ad in South Carolina. The ad, called "Never Surrender," again highlights his days as a POW, appeals to patriotism and highlights McCain's maverick attitude.
The ad is similar to "Not Easy," which began running in New Hampshire last week. It again works in the "One Man" theme. "One man sacrificed...," "One man opposed" the Iraq strategy and more.
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro Edwards outlines why voters should choose him. He says he'll "stand up for people whose voices are ignored," be "honest," keep promises and "work every day to restore the American Dream."
Per the campaign, the ad coincides with Edwards going door to door in Nashua, N.H., today.
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
You're kinda Iowa if: You can identify the Des Moines restaurant with the best tap list (El Bait Shop).
You're kinda Iowa if: You think it's trite and obnoxious when people pronounce it "Dess Moynes" Bill Richardson's mispronunciations of "Maquoketa."
CONTINUED >>
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Eight days out : With the caucuses just eight days away, almost every candidate -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Huckabee, McCain, Obama, Richardson, and Thompson, as well as Bill Clinton and Michelle Obama -- is in Iowa today. The exceptions are Edwards and Romney (who are in New Hampshire) and Giuliani (who is in Florida). Just asking: Does anyone go negative on TV today? And how much negative direct mail will be buried in those post-Christmas circulars?
*** Playing the experience card : Hillary Clinton channels John Kerry in a way (or at least hopes to) with the launch of her final tour designed to appeal to Iowans on the idea that it's now time to pick a president. Officially, it's called “Big Challenges, Real Solutions -- Time To Pick A President” tour. Per a memo the campaign just released, “America faces a war abroad and a troubled economy at home -- critical moments that demand a President who is tested, ready to lead on Day 1 and offers real solutions to the big challenges we face. And that person is Hillary Clinton.” But on the very day that Clinton highlights her experience comes a front-page New York Times piece, which isn't that flattering about that experience, especially relating to foreign policy. From the piece: “Mrs. Clinton did not hold a security clearance. She did not attend National Security Council meetings. She was not given a copy of the president’s daily intelligence briefing. She did not assert herself on the crises in Somalia, Haiti and Rwanda."
*** Dueling tours : By the way, “Big Challenges, Real Solutions -- Time To Pick A President” is a long name for a tour. Clinton's campaign, in fact, has a habit of naming a lot of its Iowa tours. If she goes on to lose Iowa, many will look back at the series of different tour names and use that as an example of Clinton struggling to find the right message. Meanwhile, Obama is sticking to the change message with his "Stand for Change" tour, which also begins today. The two tours are very much cooperative with big media by making the final eight-day contrast between Clinton and Obama become experience vs. change. But remember, it's not that simple… There's another change candidate in the field who has every chance of winning Iowa, and that's John Edwards. In fact, what does the weight of two change messages vs. one experience message do to Clinton?
*** Look who else is in Iowa today… : Also in Iowa today is McCain, who is apparently making a real push in the state as he spends the next three days in Iowa with a very full schedule. Will he stay in Iowa through January 3 -- or will he pop back into New Hampshire? With the media looking to write those McCain-is-back stories, a third-place finish in Iowa could be a big Mo boost for the Arizona senator. Would McCain finishing third in Iowa hurt Romney when we get to New Hampshire? Romney may be trying to stop Huckabee in Iowa, and clearly a Mitt victory over Huck would be a big boost. But losing to Huckabee wouldn't be nearly as harmful in New Hampshire as finishing just ahead of McCain in Iowa. Can any other Republican slingshot as well out of Iowa right now than McCain, thanks to expectations and the length of time it appears that Huckabee's been in the lead? The burden of expectations...
*** … And look who isn’t: Giuliani’s schedule this week shows how he hopes to have the race start for him in Florida. He spends 2 1/2 days in the Sunshine State, a day and half in Iowa, and he then ends the week in New Hampshire. Where to next? Does he spend New Year's in Iowa or New Hampshire? Does he spend any of the final week in a state other than those two? Giuliani's Iowa stops this week will be scrutinized closely for crowd size and enthusiasm.
Countdown to Iowa: 8 days
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Per the Des Moines Register's Beaumont , "Implicit in the closing argument Clinton plans to make across southern Iowa today is that her chief rivals for the 2008 nomination are inexperienced for the challenges she says await the next president." Clinton also tried "to dampen expectations" that she would win Iowa.
“‘I want people to imagine what is going to be waiting on the desk in the Oval Office ... the whole range of pressing issues that are going to bear down on the next president, plus everything we can't predict,’ Clinton said in the interview. ‘No one brings the mix of qualifications and experience, the vision and plan, that I do with a proven, tested record of being able to produce results.’”
The Los Angeles Times' Z. Barabak and Mehta curtain-raises the final 8 days of Iowa. "The closeness of the state's caucus contests increases the import of these final days -- and any verbal misstep, breakthrough TV ads or crystallizing moment on the campaign trail -- in what already have been exceptionally fluid races."
CONTINUED >>
Over the weekend, Romney fired off at McCain while in New Hampshire, "repeatedly accusing the Arizona senator of failing 'Reagan 101' by voting twice against Bush administration tax cuts. Romney also said McCain's past support for allowing illegal immigrants to stay in the United States and work toward legal status amounted to amnesty. 'You know, right now Sen. McCain and I are both battling for your support and your vote. He's a good man, but we have differing views on this,' Romney told a capacity crowd at the Peterborough Town House.
"McCain senior adviser Mark Salter shot back: 'Welcome to Mitt Romney's bizarro world, in which everyone is guilty of his sins. He didn't support Ronald Reagan. He didn't support President Bush's tax cuts... New Hampshire is onto you, Mitt.'"
BIDEN : The candidate “has released his plans to improve the education system in the country… His ideas to better education start with expanding the focus on more than just test scores, starting education earlier, paying educators more and reducing class size, ideas fueled by statistics showing U.S. students lag behind students in other countries.” CLINTON : The New York Times looks Clinton's eight years as first lady. The lead about sums up the piece: "As first lady, Hillary Rodham Clinton jaw-boned the authoritarian president of Uzbekistan to leave his car and shake hands with people. She argued with the Czech prime minister about democracy. She cajoled Roman Catholic and Protestant women to talk to one another in Northern Ireland. She traveled to 79 countries in total, little of it leisure; one meeting with mutilated Rwandan refugees so unsettled her that she threw up afterward.”
“But during those two terms in the White House, Mrs. Clinton did not hold a security clearance. She did not attend National Security Council meetings. She was not given a copy of the president’s daily intelligence briefing. She did not assert herself on the crises in Somalia, Haiti and Rwanda."
The Wall Street Journal runs an interesting profile of manager Patti Solis Doyle. "Doyle's source of power is the bond she has with the candidate. She was the first person Mrs. Clinton hired in 1991, during Bill Clinton's presidential run. When he won, she became the first lady's scheduler and a steady presence during crises, from Whitewater to the Monica Lewinsky scandal." (And don't miss the anecdote suggesting that Penn and Grunwald haven't been on the same message page…)
CONTINUED >>
The Boston Globe has a smart piece about how some of the more well known conservative groups aren't having the sway they've had in the past. Rather, "The fair tax supporters and home-schooling advocates, with their strong and visible preference for Huckabee, are filling the void among grass-roots activists. Huckabee's rise in the polls, activists and analysts say, is a sign that new, decentralized groups are learning to exploit the disarray among the party's old-guard institutions." GIULIANI : USA Today runs a pretty tough profile of Giuliani. "But Giuliani's shifting on gun control (which he says should be left to the states) and on immigration (he stresses the need for secure borders instead of immigration's benefits) has left even some of his supporters confused about his political philosophy. 'I don't know what his core beliefs are because he's shed most of them,' said Doug Muzzio, a public affairs professor at Baruch College in New York."
The New York Daily News calls Giuliani's Florida (and beyond) strategy "a big if," adding "many state polls show Giuliani sinking faster than a Florida sunset as conservatives appear to coalesce around Romney or Huckabee, at least in early-voting states. But Giuliani can afford to lose some ground, given the size of his still-hefty leads in large, later-voting states with significant delegate counts."
CONTINUED >>
Bloomberg's Al Hunt does a great "odds" column on who is likely to be the next president. He makes Clinton a 3-1 favorite with Obama a 7-2 favorite (for you know gamblers out there, that's 3.5-1); He makes Romney the favorite on the GOP side. By the way, don't miss this great factoid from Al: "In eight of the past 10 elections, the party that settled its nomination first won the presidency in November."
The
New York Daily News says that, for the Democratic candidates, Iraq has virtually disappeared as an issue on the campaign trail. “When asked, voters in the early presidential states all say the war in Iraq is important to them. But when they quiz candidates, Iraq seldom comes up these days - even for Hillary Clinton, who was grilled relentlessly on her vote to authorize the war when she launched her campaign.”
President Bush continues his year-end vacation today, NBC’s John Yang reports, flying by helicopter from Camp David in Maryland to Andrews Air Force Base outside Washington for his Air Force One flight to Texas, where he'll ring in the new year at his Prairie Chapel Ranch in the gently rolling hills outside Crawford.
Meanwhile, McClatchy profiles Democratic Rep. Robert Wexler, who is trying to impeach Cheney. Wexler has even begun a Web-based petition campaign.
From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum On Meet the Press this morning, Paul called the American Civil War a mistake, criticized Ronald Reagan as a "failure," and refused to rule out a third party run.
Paul also criticized Reagan for not reducing the government to a "constitutional size." But Paul also is using Reagan's picture in his brochure. "He ran on a good program," Paul explained. "His idea was limited government ... and a strong national defense."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama this morning questioned whether Edwards really had no influence in preventing a 527 group from advertising on his behalf.
Speaking with reporters, Obama said that if Edwards wanted to, he could use his influence to stop his former campaign manager -- who is now running a 527 backed by the SEIU -- from running pro-Edwards advertisements in Iowa. Starting Wednesday the 26th, Alliance for a New America, will begin running $769,000 in pro-Edwards television advertising across Iowa.
"That this is somebody who worked for John Edwards -- for who knows how many years. He's a good friend and colleague of Edwards who's now running a 527 that's running ads on behalf of John Edwards. You're telling me that he has no influence on him that's just not true," Obama said.
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From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann and NBC's Mark Murray today picks up nods from the Nashua Telegraph (NH) and Sioux City Journal (IA). Romney also gets the backing from the Sioux City Journal , and Clinton McCain
Breaking down the Iowa papers, the Quad-City Times serves much of the typically more Democratic eastern half of Iowa, and the Sioux City Journal is the largest daily in more conservative Western Iowa.
The Quad-City Times was, notably, the venue where Obama and Clinton traded their very first set of direct hits during the summer. (Ah, the good ol days, huh?). In twin interviews with the Times' political reporter back in July, Obama derided Clinton's refusal to meet with rogue leaders, and Clinton accused Obama of being "naïve" and "irresponsible." The Q-C's endorsement doesn't reference the skirmish, but it does highlight Clinton's experience and passion for problem solving. On Obama, the board simply writes, " Not yet."
As for the Sioux City Journal's endorsement for Obama, it's great news for him, and bad news for John Edwards, who has been largely left out of the Iowa newspaper nod race. A big part of Obama's strategy in peeling voters off from the Edwards count is converting supporters in small rural precincts in the west, where many analysts think the race ultimately will be decided. In its endorsement, the paper highlights Obama's foresight, his forward-looking vision, and his impatience for "the 'that's-just-the-way-it-is' mentality of Washington, D.C."
From NBC's Mark Murray Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire poll has McCain locked in a statistical tie with Romney in the Granite State. According to the poll, Romney is at 28% among likely primary voters, McCain is at 25%, and Giuliani is at 14%. Twenty-three percent said they were undecided. A month ago, the poll's results were Romney 32%, Giuliani 21%, and McCain 17%. Obama at 30% and Clinton at 28%, followed by Edwards at 14%. Twenty percent said they were undecided. A month ago, it was Clinton 35%, Obama 21%, and Edwards at 15%.
The poll was conducted from Dec. 16-20, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 4.9%.
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama was serenaded at a town hall in Winterset, Iowa yesterday, but it wasn't with Christmas carols.
Jerry Triplet, 73, took the microphone to ask a question about the rationale for building a $550 million embassy in Baghdad. But before Obama answered, Triplet said he had a song to sing for Obama "Of course!" Obama replied. "Don't we all want to hear a song -- is it a Christmas song? How long is it?"
That was all the permission Triplett needed. In a rich baritone, Triplett burst into "God Bless Barack Obama," retooling the lyrics from the Irving Berlin classic to cater to the senator from Illinois.
Wildly gesticulating while he sang Triplett warbled the lyrics:God Bless Barack Obama
And so on...
Obama roared with laughter during the refrain, and burst into applause along with the rest of the audience when Triplett finished with a grand bow. "Wow! That's what I'm talkin' about!" Obama shouted. "I just want you to know he is not a plant!" The senator added that Triplett's song would be the "highlight" of his day.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy SIOUX CITY, IA – The public's expectations for the success of Mike Huckabee's campaign have soared almost as high as his Iowa poll numbers. And now the campaign's newest advisor, Ed Rollins, is predicting an Iowa win. Rollins told CBS recently that he expects to emerge from the early caucus victorious, but the candidate seemed surprised by the confidence after a rally at North High School here on Saturday.
"We've never said we had to win Iowa," Huckabee said. "We certainly said we needed to be in one of the three seats out of here – either first class, business or coach. Now that Ed is willing to upgrade us to first class automatically I better call Ed and ask him…does he have the frequent flyer miles to make sure we get there?
The former-governor said that he is "playing to win" in Iowa, but if he doesn't, he feels that he can still be competitive in other early voting states like South Carolina, Michigan, Florida, Georgia and Texas. But you can't accuse Huckabee of downplaying the importance of a potential victory in the Iowa caucuses.
"If we do win in Iowa it is a true upset of the classic form," Huckabee said. "To be outspent like this and outmanned, to win here is huge and it gives us a great momentum going into the next several contests."
Also on the candidate's agenda on Saturday – Is Rush Limbaugh picking a fight with Mike Huckabee? Some members of the media seem to think so. Rush had some harsh words for the newest GOP presidential frontrunner on his show last week, supposedly in response to a Huckabee aide calling Rush an "entertainer."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones WEST DES MOINES, Iowa -- Bill Clinton has been talking about change a lot on the campaign trail these days, arguing that Hillary Clinton has been an agent of positive change for 35 years. Is he now changing his wife’s message in the final days before the crucial Iowa caucuses?
In two speeches here Saturday, the former president summed up his wife’s plans for her presidency by talking about three major goals. For months on the stump now, Hillary Clinton has been spelling out her four big goals for America: restoring the country’s leadership in the world, rebuilding a strong and prosperous middle class, reforming the government and reclaiming the future for America’s children, but Bill didn’t mention government reform in his speeches today and he seemed to spend the most time on economic issues and health care.
“I like Hillary’s vision,” Bill Clinton told an audience at a West Des Moines school. “She says that our definition of moving toward a more perfect union requires us to do three things. Number 1, to rebuild the middle class dream in America and give more poor people a chance to work their way into it. We don’t want to be a country of shrinking opportunity; we want to be a country of expanding opportunity for everyone who will take advantage of it.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro and Chuck Todd
The
Concord Monitor writes
an absolutely blistering editorial to be published tomorrow entitled,
“Romney Should Not Be The Next President.” The paper does, however,
have a rather small circulation (only about 20,000 -- a medium-sized
paper is about 40,000 circulation), a liberal bent and the editorial
seems to be made for a direct mail piece or TV spot. Here are some
excerpts:
“If you were building a Republican presidential candidate from a kit,
imagine what pieces you might use: an athletic build, ramrod posture,
Reaganesque hair, a charismatic speaking style and a crisp dark suit.
You'd add a beautiful wife and family, a wildly successful business
career and just enough executive government experience. You'd pour in
some old GOP bromides - spending cuts and lower taxes - plus some new
positions for 2008: anti-immigrant rhetoric and a focus on faith.
“Add it all up and you get Mitt Romney, a disquieting figure who sure
looks like the next president and most surely must be stopped.” …
“If you followed only his tenure as governor of Massachusetts, you
might imagine Romney as a pragmatic moderate with liberal positions on
numerous social issues and an ability to work well with Democrats. If
you followed only his campaign for president, you'd swear he was a
red-meat conservative, pandering to the religious right, whatever the
cost. Pay attention to both, and you're left to wonder if there's
anything at all at his core.”
*** UPDATE *** The Romney campaign responds, calling the Monitor's editorial board "liberal on many issues, so it is not surprising...." CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller CORALVILLE, Iowa – In the day’s second media availability,
Edwards again took questions on his opinion of 527s.
Asked whether he would call on the 527 run by his former
campaign manager, Nick Baldick, to quit running ads on his behalf and
disclose who his donors are, Edwards said, “I do.”
“I do not support 527s,” Edwards expounded. “They're part of the law
and I don't have any direct control over it because the law requires
that I stay out of it. I would prefer that all the 527s -- not just
this one -- that all the 527s stay out of Iowa, but I have no legal
authority over that.”
But his campaign tried to couch this response as much more definitive in an e-mailed statement, entitled: "Edwards: Stop these ads." "Today, after an event in Coralville, Iowa, Senator John Edwards called on 527 groups to stop running ads," the e-mail begins.
“I
do not support 527 groups," Edwards says in the statement. "They are part of the law, but let me be
clear: I am asking this group and others not to run the ads. I would
encourage all the 527s to stay out of the political process.”
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli MILFORD, N.H. --
Clinton today said it was “silly” of
Obama to ask why top foreign policy officials from her husband’s administration were now supporting him, and said the campaign shouldn’t be based on lists.
Clinton, after shaking some hands and posing for pictures with patrons of the River House Café, stopped to take questions from reporters and was asked to respond to Obama’s claims of greater support from Clinton administration figures.
“Obviously we demonstrated that that wasn’t accurate," Clinton said, alluding to a list produced by the campaign last night, which
First Read reported on earlier . "But really that’s not the point. You can have lists of people who are advising you but what matters is who’s sitting behind the desk in the Oval Office, and who’s ready to be president on Day One.”
Obama had asked rhetorically why “the national security advisor, the secretary of the navy for Bill Clinton, the assistant secretary of state for Bill Clinton” had endorsed him. “I just think that it’s kind of a silly question,” Clinton responded today. “I mean, honestly it’s a silly question. We have hundreds of people’s support. … This is not a campaign between lists of advisers. This is a campaign between real people with experience and qualifications to be president on Day One.”
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan At a stop at Smoky Row Coffee Shop in Oskaloosa,
Obama sat down to eat some pumpkin pie with four local women and ended up having to explain how he was not a Muslim.
An older woman seated at the table asked Obama to explain his Muslim heritage, to which the candidate replied, "This is something that keeps on being misreported, so I’m glad you asked me."
Obama was referring to an e-mail chain accusing him of being a Muslim with an intent to undermine the United States. Early this year, false reports also circulated that he had attended a madrassa as a child. Obama explained his connection to Islam in this way:
"My father was from Kenya,” he said, “and a lot of people in his village were Muslim. He didn’t practice Islam. Truth is he wasn’t very religious. He met my mother. My mother was a Christian from Kansas, and they married and then divorced. I was raised by my mother. So, I’ve always been a Christian. The only connection I’ve had to Islam is that my grandfather on my father’s side came from that country. But I’ve never practiced Islam."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
HOPKINTON, N.H. --
Giuliani told reporters that he did not think he was
having a heart attack when he was flying home to New York City
Wednesday, and said he did not know why his campaign staffers told
reporters he was suffering from “flu-like symptoms.”
“You’re going to have to ask them,” he said outside a town hall meeting. “I’m telling you what actually happened.”
Asked
about whether he thought he was having a heart attack at the time, he
said, “No, I knew it was a very bad headache. I knew exactly what it
was.” He added that the cabin pressure from the plane, which is smaller
than the one he usually uses, amplified the headache he had been
experiencing throughout the day.
A senior campaign aide
said Giuliani did not have chest pains or shortness of breath, but was
complaining that it was the worst headache he ever had, likening it to
having a golf ball in his head or a root canal.
*** UPDATE *** The Giuliani campaign tries to explain "flu-like symptoms" statement.CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller
LISBON, Iowa -- In his first event of the day in eastern Iowa,
Edwards responded to an attack from
Obama . This morning in Oskaloosa, Iowa, Obama criticized Edwards on
the advertising a 527 group run by Edwards’ former campaign manager is
running in the first caucus state.
“You've got these
outside groups that are helping out candidates," Obama said, "and it's a way of
getting around the campaign finance laws. So [Edwards] said he's
opposed to them -- we found out today that there is an outside group
spending $750,000, just bought three quarters of a million dollars
worth of television time, and the individual who's running the group
used to be John Edwards’ campaign manager. So you can’t say yesterday you don’t believe in 'em, and
today, you have three-quarters of a million dollars being spent for you.”
Nick Baldick, who managed Edwards’ 2004 campaign and advised
his current campaign until April 2007, now runs the Service Employees
International Union’s 527 branch. Many state chapters of the SEIU have
endorsed Edwards, including the Iowa chapter.
*** UPDATE *** Obama campaign responds: “It's not change when you decry the influence of money in politics but
then stay silent when your former campaign manager exploits the biggest
loophole in the law to benefit the Edwards' campaign with millions of
dollars in ads from an unregulated political fund whose donors are
undisclosed. John Edwards can and should call on his former advisor to
stop this effort."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan OSCALOOSA, Iowa -- Hillary
Clinton is not the only candidate Barack Obama is ready to get into the
ring with as the Iowa caucuses draw near.
Obama slammed John
Edwards at a town hall today, saying he "talks the talk" but doesn't
"walk the walk" when it comes to the influence of special interest
groups.
"Both of us agree that we have to take on the special
interests and lobbyists. Both of us agree that they have too much
influence in Washington. But I'd like to think in decisions when we
actually had the chance to do something about it, I did something and
John didn't. I don't just talk the talk, I walk the walk."
Obama
criticized Edwards for saying that he doesn't approve of 527s, while at
the same time not disavowing a group, Alliance for a New America, run
by long-time Edwards advisor and 2004 campaign manager, Nick Baldick.
In the current presidential cycle, Baldick served as a consultant to
Edwards through the second quarter of 2007.
*** UPDATE *** EDWARDS RESPONDS: "The truth is I am the only candidate in this race who has never
taken a dime of PAC or Washington lobbyist money -- ever. And, it's why
I support public financing of federal elections. As for
outside groups, unfortunately, you can't control them.... " CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli MANCHESTER -- Attention President Clinton: If you haven't bought your wife a Christmas present yet, she could use a good pair of boots.
After an event in Manchester today, some reporters were invited on board Hillary Clinton's campaign bus, where the New York senator was chatting with two supporters, Barbara Marzelli and AnnMarie Morris, as well as Clinton's mother, Dorothy Rodham, and daughter, Chelsea. Sipping a cup of hot tea, Clinton talked to the The group shared stories about last-minute shopping, and proper winter footware.
"I don't get to shop all that often, so I love going to little stores," Clinton said. "I like going to Main Streets. … I like to go into stores that are kind of unique and different." Yesterday in Concord, Chelsea and her grandmother actually did some shopping there, she said.
Morse said she likes shopping at L.L. Bean, and had done some online shopping this week. That caught Clinton's attention, after some trouble on the campaign trail in snowy New Hampshire last week.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan In a populist appeal to Iowans, Barack Obama criticizes unfair trade deals in an new ad "Enough."
The ad, which will begin running in Iowa today, shows Obama speaking to a town hall size crowd criticizing tax breaks for companies that take jobs overseas.
"If the plant moves to China, and you've been working there for 20, 30 years and suddenly you have the rug pulled out from ya…" Obama says in the ad. "And you don't have healthcare, and you don't have a pension, you're on your own."
He goes on to say, "We gotta stop giving tax breaks to companies that are moving overseas and give those tax breaks to companies that are investing right here in Iowa."
The ad, which could as easily have said 'I'm John Edwards and I approve this message,'" appears to be part of a larger push on the economy by Obama, who has been hitting an economic message on the stump recently, showcasing more stories from working Americans, and holding economic roundtables both in Iowa and New Hampshire.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy ON THE ROAD, IA – So what happened to Tom Tancredo's Iowa supporters after his 'big announcement' earlier this week?
We know that the former-candidate threw his support behind Mitt Romney, but on Friday Tancredo's Iowa state chairman Bill Salier announced that he was supporting Fred Thompson. And while riding through Muscatine on the Huckabus this week, Mike Huckabee was confronted by a very well informed former Tancredo staffer who argued with the Iowa frontrunner over the issue of immigration.
Deb Miller described herself as "looking" for a candidate after her old boss dropped out of the race, and she came to the afternoon rally at the Rendez Vous Banquet Hall equipped with a stack of information compiled from Newsmax and ImmigrationWatchdog.com to help her with her search.
Reading from the papers in her lap, Miller asked Huckabee about a passage from his book that described enforcing current immigration laws as "shear folly" and about three incidents from his time governor that showed questionable strength on combating illegal immigration.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anuburajan and Mike Memoli WASHINGTON, Iowa -- In a battle for who can claim a bigger slice of the Clinton foreign policy legacy, Barack Obama said at a town hall Friday afternoon that he had more members of the Clinton Administration supporting him than Senator Hillary Clinton at a town hall in Washington, Iowa.
It was a charge that the Clinton campaign quickly disputed.
"In fact you could argue that there are a bunch of ex-Clintonites supporting me," Obama said. "There are more foreign policy experts from the Clinton Administration supporting me than Senator Clinton. That should raise some pretty interesting questions."
Obama said that the reason so many former Clinton foreign policy advisors were supporting him was because he exercised better judgment on foreign policy. Citing his positions on talking with one's enemies, his opposition to the Iraq War and the Kyl-Lieberman ammendment and his criticism of Gen. Pervez Musharraf of Pakistan as an unwilling ally on the war on terror, he argued that his thinking was out of step with a conventional Washington approach but his positions had been proven right over time.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike ROCHESTER, N.H. – On the same night that Mitt Romney returned to New Hampshire and re-inserted John McCain into his stump speech, an anti-Romney student turned up to dog him on flip-flopping.
Soon after broaching the economy and lauding President Bush for imposing tax cuts amid disagreement, he said, “You know, one of my friends is Sen. McCain. He voted against the Bush tax cuts.” And then he added the contrast, “I think the Bush tax cuts were a great thing for our country, I support them, I want to make them permanent and I want to add to them.”
Buzz about a McCain comeback has been brewing for weeks now, and a USA Today/Gallup poll of New Hampshire Republican voters that came out yesterday showed McCain’s support level coming within single digits of Romney’s lead at 34 percent to 27 percent.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli CONCORD, N.H. -- Hillary Clinton picked a snow-covered apple orchard Friday to deliver a message of bipartisanship as she kicks off a two-day New Hampshire bus tour. Joined once again on the campaign trail by mother Dorothy Rodham and daughter Chelsea, Clinton promised as president to do what she said the Bush administration hasn’t – work across party lines.
Clinton introduced testimony from two Republicans, Steve Walter of Londonderry and Jeff Volk, a New York native who was in Manhattan on 9/11 and in New Orleans during Hurricane Katrina. His voice trembling, he called the government response to Katrina the “most incompetence” he’d ever seen, and said Clinton’s was the only office who responded to pleas for help. “Somebody called, and kept on calling to make sure we were okay,” he said. He also called her “one of the most caring, compassionate, kind, informed people I met in my life.”
Clinton said the problems facing America aren’t Democratic or Republican problems, but American problems. And she said it was time America got back to the “solutions business.” Then, the senator who a month ago in Des Moines said it was time to “Turn up the heat” on Republicans touted her work with the party, including people like Lindsay Graham, Bill Frist and even James Inhofe. That’s a bipartisan approach she said she’ll take into the White House.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller Edwards introduced the Lakey family, who made famous in his book Four Trials. In 1993, five-year-old Valerie Lakey was disemboweled by a pool drain, and Edwards represented her -- and eventually a dozen more children who had suffered similarly -- in court, leading to a $25 million settlement that covers her medical expenses for the rest of her life.
“I know John because he saved my daughter’s life,” said Sandy Lakey, Valerie’s mother, in introducing the former senator. She told the audience that a lawsuit was the furthest thing from her mind following the accident, but that Edwards came alongside them and fought on their behalf. (*** Just to clarify: The Lakeys sought out Edwards' services.***)
“We went into that courtroom, and we battled and we fought. And the Lakeys can tell you the details of that battle,” Edwards said. “It was a difficult, difficult time for them.”
Edwards was here as part of his three-day “Fighting for America’s Voice” tour through Iowa. Also traveling with him is James Lowe, whom Edwards often references in his call for universal health care. Lowe was born with a cleft palate and therefore couldn’t speak. As Edwards tells it, Lowe couldn’t get it repaired because he didn’t have health insurance, so a surgeon generously did it for free when Lowe was 50 years old. That was when Lowe got his voice back, Edwards explained in stops yesterday.
From NBC’s Ken Strickland Pat Leahy and ranking Republican Arlen Specter .
They write, "Our request expressly includes copies, remnants, fragments and extant recordings of the tapes reportedly destroyed of waterboarding, wherever recorded and wherever currently held. If those recordings are in the possession, custody or control of the United States or can be obtained by the United States, we request them on behalf of the Committee."
While DOJ has previously refused to share information with the committee, citing conflicts with the department’s own inquiry, the leaders say parallel investigations have occurred in the past and is "pursuant to our oversight and legislative responsibilities."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama from landing here this morning to start a three day bus tour before Christmas.
A disappointed crowd of 580 people, "ohhh'ed" when the Bill Gluba, the Mayor of Davenport and an Obama precinct captain told them that Obama couldn't land.
Heavy fog across the state caused airlines to cancel all flights into Iowa. The intrepid press corps following Obama, managed to brave a storm in New Hampshire to get on a flight to Moline, only to find their connection in Minneapolis cancelled. A group of reporters, sans their luggage, climbed onto a coach bus at 10:00 pm last night and drove seven hours to land in the damp and foggy Davenport at 4:00 am.
The senator appears to be following the press's lead this time, rather than the other way around. His motorcade was enroute from Chicago; the drive is about five hours.
But try as the candidates may, it doesn't sound like they're going to out-fly or out-drive the weather this weekend. Heavy snow (between 8 to 12 inches) is predicted for tomorrow, along with gusty winds.
Let's hope that despite the weather that we can all still say to our families, "I'll be home for Christmas."
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan and Carrie Dann Obama mailers paid for by Hillary -backing union AFSCME. As reported by NBC/NJ on Wednesday, the direct mail piece going out in Iowa slams Obama's health-care plan as "yet another Band-Aid solution" that leaves "15 million Americans uninsured." That's the argument made by the Clinton campaign, which has criticized Obama's plan for its lack of a universal mandate requiring coverage for all Americans.
But in a conference call sponsored by the Obama campaign, two AFSCME members -- Henry Beyer, the executive director of Illinois' AFSCME chapter, and Carter Woodruff, a former state treasurer of AFSCME in Iowa -- criticized the mailer on the grounds that AFSCME has had a long-held position against mandates for healthcare.
Beyer said he was "dismayed" to see the direct mail piece. "We've always opposed individual mandates. We were very concerned about the Massachusetts plan," he said referencing the health-care plan passed under Gov. Romney in Massachusetts, which required state residents to purchase health insurance.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani will resume campaigning this evening, attending a fundraiser in Rochester, NY, campaign aides said.
*** UPDATE ***
And to all of his supporters, Giuliani said his message is "to win" and wishes them "Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays."
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Huckabee elaborated on his response to a man from Marshalltown, IA, who had expressed concern that only Christians would be attended to by a Huckabee White House. "It's not like I'm stepping out of the pulpit last Sunday and running for president today," Huckabee said. "I don't think anybody's going to find that, you know, I'm some intolerant bigot when it comes to religion. If anything, it's the opposite -- because in my view of faith, it's only faith if it's voluntary ... and to try to force faith on somebody would, to me, violate the heart and soul of it as to what it should be."
Yet when he was pressed on whether he would continue certain practices he began in the Arkansas state house, such as a Christian Heritage Week or hanging the Ten Commandments in his office, Huckabee said, "[I] don't know why I wouldn't."
He pointed out that the Christian Heritage Week was celebrated in 37 states, but he was the only person who received attention for it, "which to me showed that there was some level of almost a different sort of treatment that I would get on the religious questions than anyone else."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller Edwards made nice with Clinton . Following a spat on Wednesday -- when Clinton boasted about her husband's work on poverty and Edwards reiterated that poverty is the cause of his life -- the North Carolina senator applauded his opponent's new bill to raise the minimum wage.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Will we hear from Rudy today? Our guess is yes. The campaign won't resume a normal schedule until Saturday, but given that yesterday's various delays in releasing Giuliani from the hospital only added to the questions those of us in the media have about the mayor's condition, don't be surprised if we do hear from him -- perhaps via a radio interview or even on the TV. We're guessing the Giulianis were very surprised by the media's intense interest in his condition all. It's one of the things that can surprise first-time presidential candidates. But doctor visits or hospital stays that can be seen as routine for civilians can become GIANT stories overnight for presidential candidates. Just ask Bill Bradley, whose heart scare in the heat of the primary with Gore may have been a bigger issue than the campaign ever realized.
*** Doing Hillary’s dirty work? As we’ve noted over the past week, Clinton has stopped engaging Obama and instead has shown her softer side (in testimonials and TV ads). But that doesn’t mean the anti-Obama jabs from the Clinton campaign have stopped. Yesterday, three Clinton surrogates -- Reps. Stephanie Tubbs Jones, Anthony Weiner, and Joe Crowley -- held a conference call with reporters whacking Obama over his “present” votes while serving in the Illinois legislature. (Just asking: Has any other campaign used its congressional supporters to attack a fellow colleague?) And the pro-Clinton AFSCME, using Edwards’ name, is hitting Obama over the issue of health care. Indeed, the Obama campaign emailed reporters that, per FEC numbers, pro-Clinton groups (like AFSCME, AFT, and Emily’s List) have spent $2.1 million in independent expenditures, while pro-Edwards groups have spent $1.3 million.
*** Pushing back: McCain's decision to address the Drudge rumor so publicly -- as his campaign did in a statement yesterday -- is probably a risk. Does he dare the New York Times to run the story (about allegedly doing favors for a lobbyist) now? Every night at approximately 10:00 pm ET, the campaign will no doubt begin refreshing the Times’ Web site to see if the piece is running that night. Perhaps the piece runs on the 24th or 25th? McCain's lawyer Bob Bennett spoke to the Washington Post's Kurtz and equated the potential firestorm with McCain's troubles in 2000 in South Carolina. Will McCain's aggressive pushback eventually mitigate the damage the story does if it runs and if the allegations are proven true? Dealings with a lobbyist could be deadly to McCain's straight-talking image.
*** Romney's memory (or lack thereof): The Romney campaign ought to be glad that between Rudy and Drudge, many in the press corps were distracted from what wasn't a smooth answer to the question of whether Mitt saw his father march with MLK. It turns out his father never did… The danger in this story for Romney is that it could add to this notion that he'll say anything to get elected. It's something his opponents are pushing hard, and Romney can't allow himself to get caught in a trap like this MLK deal if he doesn't want a few press clips that decide to delve into instances in which Romney has overstated something. Just ask Al Gore how this storyline can get out of control in a hurry.
*** Throwing some chin music: At the debates, Richardson has certainly channeled his inner Rodney King (“Can’t we all just get along?”). Which is why this statement he released last night -- entitled “Richardson calls Hillary on Iraq flip-flop” -- raised our eyebrows. "Senator Clinton's statement that we could 'certainly get all the troops out within a year' is a stunning flip-flop from what she has been saying all along,” he said. “She consistently has called for leaving troops in Iraq to fight al-Qaeda, train Iraqis, and protect U.S. assets. Has that suddenly been abandoned?” More: “It is clear that she is responding directly to my latest ad and my statements that she repeatedly has called for leaving thousands of troops in Iraq indefinitely. Rather than defending her position, apparently she simply has changed it." Whoa. Is this a last-ditch effort by Richardson to become THE anti-war candidate? Is Richardson signaling to supporters that Clinton should NOT be their second choice?
*** On the trail: Biden, Dodd, Edwards, Huckabee, Obama, Richardson, Thompson, and Bill Clinton all are in Iowa. Hillary Clinton, Paul, and Romney all campaign in New Hampshire. And elsewhere, McCain stumps in Louisiana and raises money in Phoenix, while Hunter campaigns in Michigan.
*** And a final note: The morning edition of First Read will not publish on Monday, December 24 and Tuesday, December 25, although we’ll be updating the site occasionally. The morning edition will be back Wednesday -- for the real sprint to Iowa and beyond. Merry Christmas and Happy Holidays.
Countdown to Iowa: 13 days
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USA Today/Gallup’s inaugural New Hampshire poll has Clinton and Obama not just statistically even -- but actually even at 32%. Edwards trails with 18%. On the GOP side, the poll has Romney just leading McCain by single digits, 34-27%. This is the first REAL evidence in a poll to back up the media's two-week attempt to find the McCain comeback story. Now, this poll helps justify that coverage.
Giuliani, Huckabee and McCain are locked in a three-way tie in a national FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll. The numbers: Giuliani 21%, Huckabee and McCain 19%, Romney 11%, Thompson 10%. NYT tries -- and fails -- to get more details on Giuliani's condition.
The New York Daily News caught up with him at his NYC condo late last night, where he told reporters: "Thank you all for waiting. We're gonna go straight to bed now and sleep late tomorrow. We'll probably take the day off, check our schedule and then continue campaigning." The paper adds that he spoke in a slightly "raspy voice."
More: “Privately, advisers said the former mayor was simply rundown after a grueling few weeks of travel that culminated with a particularly long day Wednesday, when plane trouble forced Giuliani to squeeze an unplanned, two-hour drive into his day. A nagging bug got progressively worse, and he felt so ill aloft that he decided to seek medical help right away instead of enduring another two-hour plane ride back to New York. Once at the hospital, aides said, it was inevitable that a high-profile patient like Giuliani was going to get a full workup.”
CONTINUED >>
A national FOX News/Opinion Dynamics poll shows Clinton with solid a 49%-20% lead over Obama. CLINTON: The candidate lobbed this her rivals’ way. Clinton “said choosing a candidate simply because they are more likable - a thinly veiled reference to Obama and Edwards - would repeat the 2000 mistake of electing George W. Bush, a then-Texas governor with a regular guy reputation and little foreign policy chops.”
NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli was with Bill Clinton last night in New Hampshire, where Clinton -- again -- tried to beat back this notion that Obama's run in '08 is similar to Bill's in '92. “There’s a slight oversimplification there,” Clinton said. “I also gave you a real plan for what I would do. And when I came here I was 46, but I was the most senior governor in America, I had worked hard on the very economic issues that I said I would work on as president for years and years and years.”
And, Clinton said, he thought he won then in part because people thought he “was more tuned in” to the day’s challenges. “There’s no question that Hillary is not out of touch,” he continued. “She has spent a lifetime making these changes.”
CONTINUED >>
“Presidential candidates are benefiting -- and sometimes being attacked -- by independent groups that are only now beginning to make their presence known in the early contest states of Iowa and New Hampshire,” the
AP writes. “These groups can be more targeted, more negative and can coordinate their activities in ways that candidate campaigns cannot. At the same time, the contenders themselves are operating on parallel tracks. Republican candidates in particular are stuffing mailboxes with negative messages about their rivals while airing cheery holiday greetings on television.”
The Los Angeles Times writes that “Bush's own second-term domestic agenda is a shambles: His ambitions to overhaul Social Security and immigration law are dead; plans to update his signature education program have foundered; few other initiatives are waiting in the wings. But on a host of foreign and domestic policy issues, backed by a remarkably disciplined Republican Party in the House and Senate, Bush has been able to confound Democrats. It has been a source of great frustration to the party that came to power with sky-high expectations and the belief it had a mandate for change. And it is a vivid reminder of how much clout even a weakened president can have -- especially one as single-minded as Bush.”
The New York Times adds, “Defying expectations and surprising even themselves, Republicans were able to slow and sometimes halt Democratic momentum by refusing to break with President Bush and his war strategy, no matter how unpopular, and by resisting social initiatives, no matter how appealing… Republicans say their unity was inspired by what they saw as Democratic overreaching on policy, bolstered by a fundamental belief that a Congressionally forced withdrawal from Iraq would be disastrous, and stiffened by attacks on vulnerable members from outside advocacy groups.”
The Senate wrapped up its business yesterday, but the New York Times also writes that Democrats will convene pro forma sessions to prevent Bush from making recess appointments. “[T[here is one in particular that [Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid] wants to stop: that of Steven G. Bradbury, nominated to be assistant attorney general, who signed secret Justice Department memorandums authorizing harsh interrogation methods that Mr. Reid considers to be torture.”
From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann Romney says that it depends on what the definition of "saw" is.
A defensive Romney was peppered with questions today on exactly what he meant when he said -- most recently on Meet the Press -- that he "saw" his father march with Martin Luther King Jr . Recent articles have indicated that his father, the late Michigan Gov. George Romney , didn't march with the civil-rights leader.
Admitting that he didn't see the march with his own eyes, he said, "I 'saw' him in the figurative sense."
"The reference of seeing my father lead in civil rights," he said, "and seeing my father march with Martin Luther King is in the sense of this figurative awareness of and recognition of his leadership."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama singled out 527s for criticism at a roundtable for independent voters here Thursday afternoon.
Pointing to a report from yesterday that showed that 527s would spend more than both political parties in this election, he said, "Right now in Iowa you have candidates who are having millions of dollars spent on their behalf uh by other groups."
Obama himself is the target of such an independent expenditure -- with the Association of Federal State and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) criticizing his health-care plan in a direct mail piece in Iowa. But the group, which has endorsed Clinton , used a quote from Edwards criticizing Obama on his plan.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Huckabee addressed the issue of Arkansas' minimum sentencing guidelines for crimes associated with methamphetamines, which has been the subject of Romney's recent television criticisms.
At an event in Marshalltown earlier today, Huckabee called Romney's recent ad "dishonest," and fought back by saying that only maximum sentencing guidelines for meth related crimes were reduced, "which meant that you would have opportunities for -- if you had good behavior you wouldn't serve 70 [years] you would serve [the same] as all other crimes were."
"It reduced the mandatory sentencing, but here's what [Romney] didn't tell you that Newsweek does," Huckabee said, citing a fact check of his opponent's latest ad done in Newsweek. "The sentencing for meth dealers in my state is more than twice as harsh as they ever were in his state. You didn't hear that part did you?"
Speaking to reporters after his rally, Huckabee was a bit more pointed with his response: "[Romney] accused me of being soft on crime. I'm going to let him defend why his laws weren't as tough as mine."
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger Giuliani left a local hospital here after spending most of the day being treated for a severe headache and other “flu-like symptoms,” but it remains unclear how his medical scare will affect his future campaign schedule.
Campaign aides said all tests were done as a precautionary measure and were negative, with campaign communications director Katie Levinson adding that Giuliani received a “clean bill of health.”
The candidate this evening is once again en route to New York City, where he will receive a follow-up examination from his doctors there, Mrs. Giuliani said.
The campaign provided virtually no information about Giuliani’s condition throughout the day, and the timeline for new information fluctuated. At one point, a press conference was scheduled to provide new information, but at the appointed time, a hospital spokeswoman came downstairs to say it was cancelled.
Giuliani left the hospital around 4:50 pm ET, waving to reporters and saying he felt fine. He shook hands with hospital staffers and told the reporters awaiting his departure that he appreciated the hospital’s efforts.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Lauren AppelbaumHillary Clinton's warm and fuzzy side, while allowing her to take a subtle -- yet obvious -- stab at Obama and Edwards .
From NBC's Mark Murray Clinton's surrogates in Iowa praised her foreign policy experience today in Iowa, three other Democratic supporters -- Reps. Stephanie Tubbs Jones of Ohio and Anthony Weiner and Joe Crowley of New York -- held a conference call with reporters, questioning Obama's leadership and record for voting "present" numerous times while in the Illinois state Senate.
"The president of the United States needs to take a tough stand on tough issues -- and not say, 'I'm here, but I'm not going to take a position,'" said Tubbs Jones, referring to today's New York Times report that Obama voted "present" nearly 130 times as a state legislator on issues ranging from juvenile crime to abortion.
Weiner chimed in, "He took ... the easy way out on a lot of controversial votes," adding, "It shows, I think, a lack of leadership."
And Crowley cited other votes that Obama has skipped while serving in the US Senate, like one condemning MoveOn.org and another designating the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization. (Obama was campaigning when the Senate voted on that Iran measure.)
It was the second time in the last 10 days when Clinton's congressional surrogates held a conference call to criticize their fellow colleague Obama; the other time was regarding a questionnaire Obama filled out in 1996 that stated his liberal positions on issues like health care, abortion, and capital punishment.
The New York Times article mentioned that voting "present" is not unusual in the Illinois legislature, and that some of Obama's votes "were in line with instructions from Democratic leaders or because he objected to provisions in bills that he might otherwise support."
In the Q&A session with reporters, Tubbs Jones replied that she understood that some Obama's "present" votes were part of a Democratic legislative strategy. "But not all of them," she added.
Colorado congressman Tom Tancredo dropped out of the GOP presidential race today in Des Moines, IA. And he endorsed Mitt Romney .
"For the same reason that I launched the campaign, I must now end it," Tancredo said.
More to come on this story...
*** UPDATE ***
From NBC/NJ’s Mike Memoli PORTSMOUTH, N.H. -- For a politician, five out of 10 ain’t bad.
On a snowy night on New Hampshire’s seacoast, Richardson tried his hand at a New England tradition -- candlepin bowling. He laced up a pair of blue and black size 11 ½ bowling shoes and strutted out to the Bowl-A-Rama, gladhanding the patrons on league night along the way.
According to the International Candlepin Bowling Association, the sport requires “minimal physical strength while demanding great timing, dexterity and patience.” Unlike traditional 10-pin bowling, candlepin bowling utilizes a smaller ball and taller, narrower pins.
Stepping up to Lane 8, Richardson took some quick tips from the locals, because, in his words, “I do the real bowling.” He picked up a Red Sox-logo ball, strode up to the foul line, and rolled. Three pins came down. “Is that pretty pathetic or what?” the New Mexico governor said.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC/NJ's Athena Jones Clinton and several of her supporters from military and diplomatic circles used the first stop on the last day of her Iowa blitz to talk about the importance of nominating a candidate who has foreign policy experience. She was joined by Gen. Wesley Clark , former U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Richard Holbrooke , former Army and VA Secretary Togo West , and Gen. Robert Gard .
Her campaign said she would be joined by other members of the military and foreign policy establishment at campaign stops throughout the day.
The senator set forth an optimistic view of what she’d do around the world, recapping some of what she laid out in an article in Foreign Affairs several weeks ago. "We need to restore America’s leadership with a new beginning, a new commitment to building the world we want, rather than just defending against the world we fear. We need a strong and aggressive foreign policy that stresses cooperation with other countries and reflects our American values,” Clinton told the crowd gathered in the theater of Grundy Center High School here, saying fear shouldn’t be the defining message of an American president.
CONTINUED >>
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
As mentioned last night and earlier today,
NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann reported on a flier by the pro-
Clinton labor union AFSCME that hits
Obama on his health-care plan. The catch, however, is that the flier appears disguised as an
Edwards attack -- since he is the only candidate mentioned in it criticizing Obama.
Now the Edwards campaign weighs in on the flier. Jennifer O'Malley Dillon, the Edwards campaign's Iowa state director, says in a statement: “There have been a lot of misleading tactics and tricks in the last few weeks, but we've just never seen anything like this before. Either they are trying to trick people, or they've realized that on health care, John Edwards is the candidate who speaks honestly about what it really costs and what will be required to have truly universal coverage. He has led the debate on health care with the strongest, boldest plan that covers everyone and is paid for by repealing the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy."
She continues, "It's fine to have an honest debate about policy, but Iowans deserve better than planted questions and campaign fliers designed to fool them.”
Meanwhile, the Obama campaign sent First Read past congressional testimony from AFSCME head Gerry McEntee criticizing Massachusetts' health-care plan, which -- drum roll, please -- mandates health insurance.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro Up for grabs : While the big headlines from the latest national NBC/WSJ poll are Giuliani’s 13-point decline (from 33% last month to 20% now) and Huck’s nine-point gain (from 8% to 17%), the real story to us is just how up for grabs the GOP field is right now. “I think there’s, at this point, no national [Republican] front-runner,” says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart. “We have literally four or five candidates, all of whom has a chance to be the nominee.” In the poll, Giuliani and Romney are tied at 20%, Huckabee is at 17%, McCain at 14%, and Thompson at 11%. Call it a five-way tie for second with none of the above on top. The last team we saw this kind of open field was, well, four years ago -- on the Democratic side. In the NBC/WSJ poll right before the 2004 Iowa caucuses, Dean was at 24%, Clark at 19%, Lieberman at 12%, Gephardt at 11%, and Kerry (the eventual winner) at 7%.
VIDEO: NBC Political Director Chuck Todd offers his first read on the latest NBC/WSJ poll, where Rudy Giuliani's lead is plummeting and Hillary Clinton is facing high negatives. *** As goes Iraq, so goes Rudy? One of the reasons for Giuliani’s decline is that he’s not seen as likeable to voters as he once was. Back in March, he had a 58%-14% fav/unfav rating. Now it’s 37%-37%. But, as we’ve asked before, is the focus from Iraq and terrorism to the economy and health care also dragging him down? A month ago, Iraq was cited as the highest priority for the federal government to address. In the new poll, it’s still the top issue, but the number saying that has dropped 10 points -- with health care and the economy now almost as important. In addition, of the top six issues on voters' minds, four are domestic and just two are international -- and those four domestic issues have all increased in importance this last month (health care/jobs/energy/immigration), while the two international issues have declined (Iraq/terrorism). What’s more, 56% believe there will be an economic recession in the next 12 months. According to Hart, this doesn’t help the GOP. “From my point of view, the Republicans are jumping from the pot to the frying pan. To move from Iraq to a struggling economy is not necessarily good news for the Republican Par
