December 2007 - Posts
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller and Mark Murray Edwards' third event of the day, a caucus-goer at the Pizza Ranch here asked a question that has been on everyone's mind: How can Edwards win the presidency within the limits of public financing?
The man said he had heard from other campaigns, specifically naming Michelle Obama , that Edwards would not have the finances to sustain his candidacy. David Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager, hosted a conference call and sent out a related spreadsheet this morning. Part of the spreadsheet crunched Edwards' campaign funding numbers, explaining that because the former North Carolina senator accepted public financing and its limitations, he would not have the funding to sustain his candidacy through the Democratic National Convention on Aug. 25.
Edwards jumped at the chance to counter.
"We have plenty of money to run a serious campaign,” he said, “but I just want to say how unbelievably weak it is to be arguing that you should be the candidate because you have more money than the other candidate. I mean, really -- does that convince anybody that that's who you should caucus for? You shouldn't even be here if that's what you're looking for!
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From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro , electable? Not so much, according to a blistering memo out this afternoon from Biden Communications Director Larry Rasky.
“[T]he evidence that Edwards is more electable is at best thin and is probably misleading,” Rasky writes in the memo, which reads more like it is straight out of the RNC's research shop. “The first question mark is that Edwards was unlikely to hold onto to his North Carolina Senate seat in 2003 when he decided not to run for re-election. In short, if John Edwards is so electable, why couldn’t he be re-elected in his home state?”
He then hits Edwards for not carrying his home state as part of the Kerry -Edwards 2004 presidential ticket, and that they even lost Edwards’ home county.
“At the end of the day, despite repeated assurances, Kerry-Edwards also failed to win a single southern state,” Rasky writes. “So it’s understandable that this time around, even John Edwards’s own people are acknowledging his vulnerability: Rob Tully, a former state party chairman and Edwards backer, said “if he doesn't win Iowa or come very close this time, ‘we're done.’”
Rasky even writes, “[T]here are serious doubts about Edwards’ message” before pivoting to why he thinks Biden is more electable. He claims Biden “has set a 15-18 red state strategy” and that “Sen. Biden’s victories have also come during times of strong Republican presence in the Delaware.”
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From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike INDEPENDENCE, IA -- After initially refusing to respond to Huckabee's attack ad bait-and-switch, Romney made the following statement outside Bill's Pizza here this afternoon:
"You know in reaction to the press conference Gov. Huckabee had today, I think that I’d note that I’m running a serious campaign, that there are serious issues that face the country at this time. I want to bring change to Washington -- that’s what my campaign is about. The press conference which Gov. Huckabee had today, I think, is confusing to the people of Iowa. On the one hand, he wants to run a positive campaign; and on the other hand, he shows a negative campaign ad and hopes that people promote it and provide it to the public through the earned media. And I think that’s a very confusing and puzzling message. With that, who wants a slice of pizza?"
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama promised to do to prevent Republicans from "stealing" the election in 2008.
A voter here told Obama that he believed that elections in 2000 and 2004 had been "stolen" by the Republicans and wanted a promise from Obama that he would fight any dirty tricks in 2008.
Obama responded, "I intend to whoop 'em so good that it won't even be close, and they can't steal the election. It won't be 47 on one side, 47 on the other," Obama said of his candidacy.
"I promise you this: If for any reason this thing is close, we will fight it tooth and nail to the end because too much is at stake in this election. Too much is at stake," Obama added.
From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy Huckabee' s day wasn't strange enough, immediately following his anti-attack-ad news conference , a scheduled trip to his campaign headquarters here was disrupted by dual demonstrations that prevented the candidate from entering the building. The ordeal ended with three arrests and a mob of confused journalists forced to find another way inside the building.
Paul's Iowa campaign offices are directly adjacent to Huckabee's, and as journalists arrived to cover what was supposed to be an innocent photo opportunity of Huckabee greeting some campaign volunteers, they were surprised to find dozens of Paul supporters crowding the sidewalks chanting, "Ron Paul revolution, legalized the Constitution."
Simultaneously, an unrelated group of local anti-war activists surrounded the entrance to Huckabee's headquarters, while three members of the group staged a sit-in of sorts in the office lobby. The police were already on the scene when most of the media arrived, but the dueling demonstrations -- combined with a multitude of TV cameras -- presented a formidable entryway when the governor's campaign bus pulled in across the street.
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From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike Romney smiled and laughed his way through a news conference with reporters this morning after his first campaign stop in Bellevue, Iowa.Huckabee over the head with -- and informed reporters that he established a 10-to 12-page set of guidelines for issuing them as governor and said he would do the same as president. And indirectly hitting Huckabee, he added: "Clearly the importance of this topic suggests as we consider something of this nature that we do so on a thorough and complete and comprehensive level, and we don't make pardons on a capricious and arbitrary basis."McCain to Democrats on taxes, Giuliani to Democrats on social issues, and now mentioning former President Clinton in his opening remarks, Romney told reporters later in the session that he had no intention of drawing a parallel between Clinton and Huckabee.
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From NBC's Christina Jamison and Mark Murray Clinton campaign trail, the press corps assumed this morning it'd be more of the same. On the press bus this morning, spokesman Jay Carson said we'd see "no fireworks" and that we'd see a composed and confident candidate hammering home her message to Iowans.
Well, the candidate was certainly calm and composed, but there were definitely some fireworks. Early in the stump speech, Clinton said her leading rivals, Obama and Edwards , were talking about each other and not the issues. "My two leading opponents have spent a lot of time right now kind of, you know, talking about each other," she said. "I'm gonna keep talking about the people of Iowa and the people of America."
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From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller STORM LAKE, Iowa -- At Buena Vista University this afternoon, Edwards continued using a line he debuted yesterday aimed at crossover appeal to voters from other parties.
"Corporate greed -- it's not just stealing the future of Democrats' children; it's stealing the future of Independents' children, of Republicans' children," he told a smaller-than-usual crowd about halfway through his stump speech. "This destruction of the middle class -- it's not just happening to Democrats; it's happening to Republicans. It's happening to Independents. Here's why that matters. Because next fall if you have a presidential candidate who's standing up with some strength and passion in a personal way to do something about this corporate greed there is no place in America that people don't believe this."
This New Year's Eve marks Day 5 of Edwards' final eight-day swing through Iowa before the caucuses. His family is traveling with him, though only daughter Emma Claire and son Jack made an appearance in Storm Lake. Roxanne Conlin, Edwards' Iowa co-chair, and Ben "Cooter" Jones, a former congressman and Dukes of Hazzard star who has campaigned extensively with Edwards, provided the events' introductions.
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From NBC/NJ's Adam Aigner-Treworgy DES MOINES, Iowa -- Peace protestors mixed with Ron Paul supporters prevented Huckabee from entering his Des Moines headquarters through the front door. Three people were arrested and then reporters were allowed back in to shoot footage of Huckabee glad-handing volunteers in his headquarters. This was immediately following his 2:00 p.m. ET new s conference.
From NBC’s Mark Murray, NBC/NJ’s Adam Aigner-Treworgy and NBC’s Lauren Appelbaum Huckabee told a packed room of reporters that he was pulling a negative TV ad his campaign had produced to respond to Romney's attacks.
"The cookie cutter approach says you get hit, you hit back,” Huckabee told the reporters, adding, “I think that the Washington way often has been effective. But there may be a better way, and I hope that we can prove that's exactly the case."
Then -- via a laptop projector -- he showed the ad anyway to the several dozen journalists in the room.
Adding to the spectacle, the sound of the ad didn't work for several minutes -- until the press got to hear it one time. The ad, which his campaign said cost $30,000 to produce, begins with Huckabee speaking to the viewer. "I'm Mike Huckabee, and I approve this message, because Iowans have a right to know the truth about Mitt Romney's dishonest attacks on me and even an American hero, John McCain ."
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From NBC/NJ’s Aswini Anburajan One thing that stood out in Tim Russert's interview with Obama on Meet the Press Sunday was Obama's claim that he and his wife Michelle have more in common with average Americans now than they would eight years from now.
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From NBC's Lauren Appelbaum Elizabeth Edwards defended her husband on the accusation that one of his biggest fundraisers is an oil lobbyist. "Campaigns go to journalists and try to feed them stories to try to get them to have us talk about things other than the issues," she said on MSNBC this morning. "What they brought up is someone who is a state lobbyist in a state in which we do not live, does not lobby the federal government, has never tried to lobby John, but likes John's policies and has tried to raise money for him."
"That's not what John's talking about," she continued. "What John's talking about is not taking money from the same people who then turn around and try to lobby you to get a result. So John has never taken money from a federal lobbyist or from a special interest PAC who might try to convince him to vote a particular way."
Mrs. Edwards did not stop there, taking advantage of the opportunity to attack Clinton. "Coming from the Clinton campaign, who has taken more money from the health care industry, more money from defense contractors, than any other candidate in the race -- that's a little bit disingenuous," Edwards said. "You hear the same thing from other campaigns, where they are trying to get you off message. John is and always has been a fighter against the kinds of influence you see in Washington. And his statement that he will not have a lobbyist in his White House is a real statement that his division between the kind of influence for corporations and his obligation to represent and fight for the people of this country ... is total. That's the reason he made the statement. It is not rhetoric. It is real, and it is also symbolic, of his complete dedication to this ideal."
From NBC's Chuck Todd DES MOINES, Iowa -- An email from the Club for Growth this morning criticizing John McCain over his declaration last night that if given the chance he would again vote against the Bush tax cuts reminded me that a number of third-party special interest groups (on both sides of the spectrum) have a lot on the line in Iowa, New Hampshire and beyond.
The Club, in particular, is watching a potential nightmare scenario brewing in the two early states as the GOP candidates they like the least -- Mike Huckabee and John McCain -- have a shot at sweeping the first two states. The Club went negative on Huckabee early and often and all that's happened as his numbers have shot up. That said, the negative economic info the Club has provided for the public record has been used by Romney so they have to feel pretty good about that.
That said, if Huckabee and McCain win Iowa and New Hampshire and then end up having a 2-way showdown for the GOP nod, it could spell the end of the Club's effectiveness as a conservative third party advocacy group. They Club knows how to make waves but they've always struggled to notch victories outside of House races. If the Club ends up with Huckabee and/or McCain egg on its face in 2008, will that mean some other Republican candidates stop taking their calls?
But the Club isn't the only special interest group with a lot riding on the results of Iowa and New Hampshire. On the Democratic side, three groups in particular have put their money and resources where their mouth is, including: AFSCME, SEIU and EMILY's List.
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From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike Romney launched his final pre-caucus ad in Iowa this morning that reminds voters of his “turn around” message -- and his family.
“Everywhere my family and I go we hear that America’s challenges are simply too big for Washington politicians,” he begins.
He goes on to tick off the laundry list of accomplishments on his resume, including his success in turning things around in business, the Olympics and as governor of Massachusetts. And he ends, “It’s time to turn around Washington.”
Noting the positive message the ad carries, spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom said that the contrast in the dynamic will be interesting to watch today given Huckabee’s proposed counterattacks for today.
Still, the Romney campaign blasted out another “THOSE WHO KNOW HIM BEST” release on
Huckabee , hitting him for having a reputation of granting clemencies as governor and charging that the more he granted, “the more applications poured in.”
From NBC/NJ’s Erin McPike Romney had great success with Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) and his son, Bryan, on Friday. The same was true of Saturday, when he was traveling with former Sen. Jim Talent (R-MO) and his son, Michael, and attorney Jay Sekulow and his son, Jordan. But today, he was traveling with former Colorado congressman and failed gubernatorial candidate, Bob Beauprez .
Parts of Beauprez's introductions:
"I tell people, 'Mitt Romney was to business what Elvis Presley was to music,'” Beauprez said. “He was a rock star; he stood out; he set a whole new standard."
But give this one a look, as it caused several reporters' eyes to dart around the room and raise their eyebrows: "Then he went to the Salt Lake Olympics -- extremely difficult circumstances -- and if it wasn't tough enough already, they threw in a little event called 9/11 on top of it to complicate matters. He pulled that off in great style."
(What would the Giuliani campaign say to the notion that 9/11 was a "little event" that was thrown in to complicate matters for Romney...?)
From NBC/NJ’s Matthew E. Berger Tim Russert said it first, but the Giuliani campaign seems to have adopted it as their mantra, "Florida, Florida, Florida."
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From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Romney campaign is set to release a positive ad -- the closing message in Iowa -- the team is also starting to engage Obama, given the senator's Romney-heavy remarks on the stump yesterday.
These are campaigns that are supposed to be singularly focused on the primaries in Iowa right now, so what might this be saying about internal tracking data? Romney's camp also just released a document, taking Obama to task on taxes.
*** UPDATE ***
NBC's Domenico Montanaro adds that this positive ad, running in Iowa, comes after Romney released negative ones on Huckabee and McCain, his chief rivals in Iowa and New Hampshire, respectively.
In the ad, he touts his accomplishments in "helping turn around business, the Olympics, and state government."
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller will have a full page ad in the Des Moines Register, according to a senior Edwards aide. Edwards will also go on air with 60-second ads during the network evening news programs in Iowa Jan. 2 and 3, according to the source.
From NBC's Mark Murray and Chuck Todd
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From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro DES MOINES, IA -- After the last four days of watching the top three Democrats on the stump, we think we can categorize their sales pitches more succinctly. Clinton is the steady hand, Obama is the unifying change agent, and Edwards is the crusader. For months, the chattering class has struggled to classify Edwards. Was he a change agent or a populist? Well, after listening to him use a variation of the word "fight" more than "change" (39 times versus 10 at one stop yesterday, per NBC/NJ’s Tricia Miller), it's fair to say we know what he is: He's playing the role of crusader. Which message will ultimately work? The most tried and true method is the Clinton tactic (though it does put her in the position of being the "incumbent"). Crusader candidates usually hit a wall at some point because normally they have a hard time bring in new supporters (though Edwards does have ENORMOUS fav ratings). And change agents can do well in two-ways against the steady hand, but how much is Edwards hurting Obama in these closing days?
*** Huck’s big test: Has Huckabee waited too long to respond? He appears to have let Romney get under his skin and he seems to be complaining very publicly about the attacks in a much less humorous way than he has in the past. Example: He tells the Politico that Romney owes him an apology. Will this style change cost him? Will voters look at the complaints at face value, or see him as weak for taking too long to respond? It's a major presidential leadership test for him.
*** Forget ringing in the New Year with a ball drop: While campaigns are spending New Year’s here in the Hawkeye State, they will all hold off on any champagne until the hit refresh on their Web browsers waiting for the final Des Moines Register poll to be posted late tonight. The poll is set to appear in tomorrow's editions of the paper, meaning the poll will begin circulating late tonight. The poll, the most respected of any when it comes to Iowa, will have an effect on how the chattering class sets up the final days of the campaign.
*** Enter Bloomberg? So Bloomberg -- as today’s New York Times suggests -- is closer to running, right? Well, remember he has to if he's even 20% thinking he'll run. The process for getting on ballots starts early, and he has to start the grunt work. What we don't know if whether there are any indie voters or voters in either primary who will use the Bloomberg threat to vote for the most electable candidate. The other thing to keep in mind is that while Bloomberg fascinates the Amtrak East Coast corridor, does the idea play in the rest of America?
*** Pulling a Dean? Did Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D), a key Clinton endorser and surrogate, pull a Howard Dean? “Beginning the presidential nominating process in Iowa, as will occur this week, ‘makes no sense,’ says Gov. Ted Strickland, who recently campaigned there for Sen. Hillary Clinton,” the Columbus Dispatch writes. “‘I'd like to see both parties say, “We're going to bring this to an end,”’ he said.” Well, remember the firestorm that engulfed Dean in January 2004, when NBC reported on unflattering statements he had made about the Iowa caucuses and the caucus system? Of course, there is a big difference of having a candidate (a la Dean) say something like this and a surrogate (like Strickland). But the Ohio governor has become one of Bill Clinton’s standard stump mentions. Does that continue?
*** On the trail: Iowa remains the place to be this New Year’s Eve… Biden visits Fort Dodge, Ames, and Newton; Clinton travels to Keokuk, Fort Madison, Muscatine, Waterloo, and Des Moines (the last three events billed as New Year’s celebrations); Dodd visits the Niman ranch in Thornton; Edwards is in Storm Lake, Spence, Emmetsburg, Algona, and Mason City (for his New Year’s Eve party); Huckabee spends his entire day in Des Moines, which includes a jog, haircut, and news conference; Obama goes to Perry, Jefferson, Boone, Iowa Falls, and Ames; Richardson campaigns in Ames, Perry, Winterset, Knoxville, and winds up in Des Moines for his NYE party; Romney stumps in Clinton, Bellevue, Dubuque, Manchester, Independence, and Waterloo; and Bill Clinton attends his own NYE parties in Missouri Valley and Ottumwa before joining his wife in Des Moines. Elsewhere, Giuliani is down, and Kucinich and McCain are in New Hampshire.
Countdown to Iowa: 3 days
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"Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney took their battle over Christian voters to the pews as both attended services while their campaigns spanned Iowa in a final Sunday pitch to evangelicals. With Christian conservatives expected to make up as much as 40 percent of Republican caucusgoers, Romney dispatched surrogates to meet with pastors in the far corners of Iowa, hoping to blunt Huckabee's momentum among evangelicals. On Friday, three national religious leaders backing Huckabee -- Tim LaHaye, Michael Farris and Rick Scarborough -- convened a conference call with Iowa pastors to urge them to use Sunday's services to drive up participation by Christian voters, who polls suggest favor the former Arkansas governor by comfortable margins."
Per the New York Daily News , "Huckabee and Romney have been engaged in an increasingly nasty tussle for first place among GOP voters in Iowa, where the winner of their clash may be determined by which candidate can more effectively marshal their supporters to caucus sites on Thursday. Romney, who has the bigger war chest, is taking the time-tested route of building county support and approaching Republicans based on their prior voting records… Team Huckabee is relying more heavily on a patchwork of volunteer support from affinity groups such as home-schoolers, Christian groups and supporters of the so-called FairTax plan."
By the way, Huckabee is taking the Romney jabs VERY personally. Politico's Roger Simon got Huckabee to say he was owed a personal apology from Romney for the campaign attacks. “‘I didn't draw first blood and say terrible things about Mitt,’ Huckabee said. ‘I'm not angry. This is politics; it is the way it works. But he not only wants to make up his record, but my record.’”
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CLINTON: Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland's critique of Iowa's role in the nominating process didn't go over well with some Iowans. "In an interview with The Dispatch last week, Strickland said the Iowa caucuses make ‘no sense.’ He called the GOP and Democratic caucuses ‘hugely undemocratic,’ because the process ‘excludes so many people.’ Anyone who happens to be working or is sick or too old to get out for a few hours Thursday night won't be able to participate, Strickland said. ‘I'd like to see both parties say, “We're going to bring this to an end,”’ Strickland said, adding that he has no problem with the New Hampshire primary Jan. 8, because ‘at least it's an election.’”
“Since endorsing Clinton in September, Strickland has campaigned for her three times in Iowa, including what was to be a quick trip Dec. 9 that turned into ‘the trip to hell and back,’ Strickland said. He expected to return to Columbus via Chicago early that Sunday night but was waylaid by bad weather, getting home at 6 a.m. Monday -- via Las Vegas. ‘Iowa is not an attractive place to be in the wintertime,’ Strickland said, adding that Iowa ‘is not a representative state and the caucus is not a fair way to register public opinion, in my judgment.’”
”The Clinton campaign yesterday sought some distance from the governor's comments. ‘Sen. Clinton believes that Iowa and New Hampshire play a unique and special role in the nominating process, and that process should be protected,’ spokesman Isaac Baker said. ‘We're proud to have Gov. Strickland's support, but on this issue they disagree.’”
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GIULIANI: After the MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll showed Giuliani lagging far behind in Iowa, the New York Post headlines, "Rudy's got not heartland." "When you get to Florida and the Feb. 5 states, we're ahead in some cases by large percentages and in some case by closer percentages," Giuliani told Fox News. "We believe it's a good strategy and it's going to work."
The Washington Times' Dinan tracked Giuliani's Iowa campaign stops and notes the "reviews" are "far less kind" than they were during the summer when Giuliani was campaigning more regularly in the state.
Giuliani pens an essay on homeland security in City Journal , a quarterly published by the conservative Manhattan Institute.
HUCKABEE: Other than appearing on "Meet the Press," Huckabee was down Sunday. What was he doing ? Adviser Ed Rollins said Huckabee would spend part of the day taping a television ad, to run Monday, aimed at making sure that "the voters know the facts about the governor's record and Governor Romney's record."
PAUL: The Des Moines Register profiles Paul. "His message includes limited government, an end to the war in Iraq, protection of gun rights, lower taxes, strictly abiding by the Constitution and a balanced federal budget. It's a message that sets him apart from other Republican presidential candidates who mostly have supported the war and have not been nearly as aggressive about taking a stand on budget issues as Paul."
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The New York Times reports that New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg is edging ever closer to an indie run. "A final decision by Mr. Bloomberg about whether to run is unlikely before February. Still, he and his closest advisers are positioning themselves so that if the mayor declares his candidacy, a turnkey campaign infrastructure will virtually be in place. Bloomberg aides have studied the process for starting independent campaigns, which formally begins March 5, when third-party candidates can begin circulating nominating petitions in Texas. If Democrats and Republicans have settled on their presumptive nominees at that point, Mr. Bloomberg will have to decide whether he believes those candidates are vulnerable to a challenge from a pragmatic, progressive centrist, which is how he would promote himself.”
”The filing deadline for the petitions, which must be signed by approximately 74,000 Texas voters who did not participate in the state's Democratic or Republican primaries, is May 12."
The Boston Globe : " Buoyed by the still unsettled field, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg is growing increasingly enchanted with the idea of launching an independent presidential bid, and his aides are aggressively laying the groundwork for him to run."
From NBC's John Yang
Well, sort of.
It depends on what your definition of "ring in" is, Yang adds. If it means being up to celebrate the stroke of midnight and the first seconds of 2008, not so much. Think more like being in bed, having been asleep for hours. Unlike his predecessor, Bush is hardly a night owl, preferring to be in bed by 9:00 pm. or so.
As Laura Bush teased him during her monologue at the 2005 White House Correspondents' Association Dinner: "George, if you really want to end tyranny in the world, you're going to have to stay up later."
From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike Huckabee in Iowa, Romney made his way through the eastern part of the Hawkeye State with his wife.
Former Missouri Sen. Jim Talent (R) and his son traveled with the campaign in Iowa yesterday, as did pro-life advocate and attorney Jay Sekulow. Talent and Sekulow explained to reporters on the press bus yesterday afternoon that they have been meeting with evangelical Christian in leaders in the state to remind them of the importance of judicial appointments over the next few years. Sekulow insisted: “To nominate someone and then to see to confirming them are two different tasks. And for the task of confirmation, you have to have the political skills and leadership to do that,” insinuating that Huckabee may not quite be ready for that.
But the suggestion that Romney is politically shrewd enough to cut through the partisanship and rigors of Washington at the same time that he’s suggesting he’s the candidate who can bring change to it seems to be a fine line. Asked that question early this afternoon, he explained to reporters: “Probably my best capability is in building a good team and working with people within that team and across the aisle to get the job done, and I'm not trying to take away from somebody else. They may have their skills. Sen. McCain has been there in Washington 27 years. So he certainly has political skill, but I believe that at this time, to change Washington, it would be helpful to have somebody who comes with more private sector skill, experience outside Washington. I don't think you change Washington from the inside. I think you change it from the outside."
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From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann
Today, a glowing Richardson waded into a screaming crowd of over 500 to the spine-tingling guitar jangling of U2's "Where the Streets Have No Name." Last week, crowds of national reporters jostled for seats when Biden held a press conference in Des Moines after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto. And McCain packed ‘em in eastern Iowa earlier this week.
For those of you just tuning in now, this is a whole new rodeo.
A breathtaking velocity of campaign frenzy and media coverage has been whirling around candidates like Obama and Clinton for weeks. For top-tierers who routinely attract hundreds to rallies, it’s not out of the ordinary to see a tangle of network cameras elbowing through crowds to catch the money entrance shot as a pumping soundtrack fills the ears of cheering supporters.
To see the same at a Richardson event is stunning.
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From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli Giuliani -- signaling his focus on the longer contest ahead -- looked to stay above the fray today.
Even as he campaigned here in New Hampshire, Giuliani did not exactly pursue the typical primary course. After a town hall meeting in Plymouth, he shook hands for just a few minutes before his staff asked the crowd to leave the room so Giuliani could do a live interview on Fox News Channel. He went on to a ski lodge in Lincoln, where he exchanged quick greetings with hordes of people who seemed surprised to see him there before he quickly moved. And he ended his day at the ritzy Mount Washington Resort, where he addressed a crowd that likely included as many out-of-staters on vacation as it did primary voters.
And as Romney , McCain and Huckabee exchange more pointed barbs on the eve of the caucuses, the former New York mayor urged restraint. In Plymouth, when Giuliani was asked specifically how he differed from his party rivals, he invoked Ronald Reagan’s 11th commandment, saying he’ll stick to talking about his record. But he did state the Giuliani amendment to that commandment. “Don’t criticize other Republicans, comma, unless they criticize me,” Giuliani said. “I have to make a little exception.”
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From NBC/NJ's Aswini Anburajan Obama loves his Republicans. He makes an open pitch for GOP voters in his stump speeches, even as he calls them out in his stump speeches, saying he can beat Mitt and Rudy and Huckabee . At a town hall in Knoxville today, he threw in Ron Paul . "They don't poll Ron Paul, but I can beat him too."
But there's one Republican whom he seems to have a little more affection for than most. Obama frequently makes fun of Romney on the stump, joking about illegal aliens working on his Romney's yard. And today, he was given permission by a Republican deciding between Obama and Romney to draw some "contrasts."
"Mitt Romney is a very handsome guy. He's taller than me. I was listening to an interview this morning and somebody asked him if he's ever cursed. He said of course, but not the real harsh ones. I have to tell you -- I've used the harsh ones, the really juicy ones," Obama told the crowd, laughing.
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From NBC's Mark Murray DES MOINES, IA -- Star attraction Martin Sheen couldn't make it as originally planned -- he is sick and couldn't fly to Iowa -- but that didn't stop a few hundred people from packing a third-floor room above a downtown bar here to listen to Richardson speak.
Is this momentum!" Richardson exclaimed to the crowd. "Is this a real surge!" He went on to say, "We are going to shock the world, right?"
Richardson also said the election "should not be [decided] by the national media. It should be by Iowa." Then citing a poll by the national media -- our MSNBC/McClatchy survey, which has him in fourth place in Iowa, at 12% -- he told the crowd, "We are within striking distance of the top three."
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From NBC/NJ's Carrie Dann DES MOINES, IA -- Hillary and Chelsea Clinton went to church today -- for 13 minutes.
Clinton appeared at an 11:00 am service at Corinthian Baptist Church, a mostly African-American congregation here. After arriving about a half hour after the start of the service with daughter Chelsea and former Gov. Tom Vilsack in tow Clinton participated in a lengthy fellowship sharing (the second of the service), during which members greet each other and mingle. Approached -- but not mobbed -- by churchgoers who snapped cell-phone pictures of the senator, Clinton shook hands and posed for photos until the pastor herded the congregation back to their seats with a series of increasingly impatient "Amens."
Clinton made brief remarks at the service, beginning with a pious declaration of "this is the day the Lord has made." But despite her reverential tone, her remarks were not devoid of politics. Touting her years of work for the Children's Defense Fund, she said that she is running for president "in large measure" to ensure the future of America's children. "The American people need a president to be their champion," she said.
From NBC/NJ's Tricia Miller Edwards used some variation of the word "fight" nearly 40 times at a town hall at the Giggling Goat Cafe here this afternoon.
In his stump speech, he uttered the words "fight," "fighting" or "fought" 31 times; in the Q&A session and his closing, he used them an additional eight times. In contrast, Edwards said "change" or "changes" six times in the stump speech and four times in the second half of the town hall.
A perfect example came about 12 minutes into the stump speech, when Edwards told the story of how his father taught him never to back down from a fight. "Where I grew up, you had to fight to survive. You did," he said. "I still remember when I was young coming home -- had gotten in a fight with an older kid and got my butt kicked. Came home, told my, you know, I was beaten up a little bit, said something to my father and he set me down and he said, 'I don't want to ever hear you starting a fight.' I said, 'Yes, sir.' And he said, 'But I want you to hear me and hear me clearly: You never ever walk away from a fight, because if you're not willing to stand up for yourself no one will stand up for you.'"
The words highlight the difference between Edwards and Obama , as the two argue over which one will be the more effective change agent.
From NBC/NJ's Mike Memoli
So far the candidates haven't made much of an issue of it here. Remember that at a UNH/Fox News debate on Sept. 5, Sam Brownback was asked about the subject, and when he stood up for an amendment to ban gay marriage, the audience reaction was a mixed bag of boos and applause. One of the debate watchers in the diner, albeit a state employee union member, said: "Absolutely not. We're the state of live free or die, and people should be able to marry the person they love."
Still, we're likely to see the candidates at the very least asked about it when they show up in the Granite State post-caucus, possibly in the two debates planned for the short 5-day gap.
Here's a roundup of some of the local newspaper coverage of the pending civil union period: The AP , The Union Leader (here , here and here ), the Concord Monitor (here and here ), Nashua Telegraph .
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, and Domenico Montanaro MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll . In the survey, Romney now leads Huckabee, 27%-23%, although it’s within the 5% margin of error. They’re followed by Thompson at 14%, McCain at 13%, and Giuliani and Paul tied at 5%. Three weeks ago -- before Romney began his contrast ads -- the poll had Huckabee comfortably leading Romney, 32%-20%. One of the reasons for Huck’s decline: His lead over Romney among self-identified born-again Christians has dropped from 42%-8% to 34%-27%. And among weekly churchgoers, it has decreased from 38%-15% to 28%-27%.
*** Dem race all about turnout: The Democratic race in Iowa , meanwhile, is essentially a three-way tie; just two points separate the three front-runners. In the poll, it’s Edwards 24%, Clinton 23%, and Obama 22% -- followed by Richardson at 12% and Biden at 8%. Three weeks ago, it was Clinton 27%, Obama 25%, and Edwards 21%. Although the percentages in it show it to be a tossup, the poll suggests that turnout could decide the contest. According to the survey, Obama leads Edwards and Clinton among first-time caucus-goers, 31%-22%-21%. Among veteran caucus-goers, it’s Edwards 25%, Clinton 24%, and Obama 18%. This suggests that a heavy turnout -- including many first-timers -- could greatly benefit Obama; a lighter turnout probably would benefit Edwards and (to a lesser degree) Clinton. Another important factor in the Dem contest is the battle for second choice (if a candidate doesn’t clear the 15% viability threshold). In the poll, Edwards gets the most second-choice support, and when Richardson, Biden, Dodd, and Kucinich backers are realigned among the top three Dems, the poll has Edwards over Obama and Clinton, 36%-26%-26%.
*** Other interesting findings: Edwards has the highest fav/unfav score (73%-11%) among the Dem front-runners, while Clinton has the worst (59%-19%). On the GOP side, Romney has the highest rating (58%-19%), while both Giuliani (30%-39%) and Paul (21%-44%) have net-negative scores. In fact, this is the second-straight MSNBC/McClatchy poll that has Paul with a net-negative rating, leading us -- once again -- to wonder if Paul is running for the wrong party’s nomination. The new poll was conducted from December 26-28 among 400 likely GOP and 400 likely Dem caucus-goers, and it has a 5% margin of error.
*** So what about tea leaves? This poll indicates that the candidate with the greatest upside on the Dem side is Edwards. He's polling competitively and has the highest ceiling of support among these likely caucus-goers; he's tops among second choice AND he's got the highest fav rating. Obama appears to have the next highest ceiling, with Clinton with the smallest room to grow, as she trails badly in second choice and her fav rating -- while excellent -- is third among the top three candidates. As for the tea leaves on the GOP side, Romney appears to have the big Mo; these numbers match the anecdotal we've picked up.
*** Should the Dems go negative, too? Will Romney's apparent success in going negative change the CW about negative ads in Iowa on the Dem side? Maybe not. Why? It's much easier to go negative in a two-way race than in a three-way one, and that's why you aren't seeing any of the Dems risk going negative for fear that if candidate A attacks candidate B, candidate C gains.
*** The Outsiders: Both Huckabee and Edwards are running against bigger bankrolls and it's pushed both to using populist appeals. But the two aren't just "outsiders" in the literal sense. They are also relying on "outsiders" to win Iowa. Both are getting arguably more support (in the case of Huckabee) or as much support (in the case of Edwards) from these groups. Obama is trying to make this an issue with Edwards, as the Obama camp sees these outside groups allowing Edwards to apparently outspend Obama in these final days on TV. These Obama hits are having -- potentially -- a divisive effect on SEIU, whose state and local affiliates are helping to bankroll one of these pro-Edwards groups. Should Edwards fail to win Iowa, don't be surprised if there is a lot of internal turmoil inside of SEIU. Last night, the national union sent out a release reaffirming its support for the pro-Edwards 527, which is making a lot of pro-Obama SEIU forces upset.
*** The electability primary: Interestingly, all three leading Dem candidates made electability pitches during their Iowa stops. What did they all see in their recent tracking? Or is this about wooing second choicers? After all, according to the MSNBC/McClatchy poll out today, 20% are supporting Richardson and Biden, making the second-choice vote very important. And electability likely is a greater concern among folks making a backup pick. It can be a deal closer.
*** On the trail : Once again, nearly everyone is in the Hawkeye State… Biden travels to Mason City, Garner, Algona, and Woodbury; Clinton attends church in Des Moines before going to Vinton, Traer, Cedar Falls, and Iowa Falls; Dodd hits Le Mars, Emmetsburg, and Mason City; Edwards campaigns in Boone, Denison, Mapleton, and Sioux City; Huckabee has no other public events but a jog; Obama appears in Knoxville, Newton, Indianola, and Des Moines; Richardson stumps in Marshalltown, Des Moines, and Fort Dodge; Romney hits Iowa City, Mount Vernon, and Moscow; and Thompson is in Ames and Webster City. Elsewhere, both Giuliani and McCain campaign in New Hampshire.
Countdown to Iowa: 4 days
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The New York Times looks at the Democratic ground war. Obama “is on the hunt for Iowans who have never participated in the state’s presidential caucuses, including independent voters under 50 and students who will be 18 by the general election.” Clinton “is searching for Iowans who have skipped the caucuses in the past and who, because of age, sex or other characteristics, seem likely to support her, starting with independent women over 65 and under 30.” And Edwards “is taking a more traditional approach, working through the official list of Democrats who showed up to choose a candidate in 2004.”
More: “The ground war - the laborious, unglamorous process of identifying supporters and making sure they show up to make their preference known when it counts - has always been a critical part of the contest in Iowa. But the turnout effort among Democrats this time around has exploded into the most ambitious and costly in the history of this state’s presidential caucus system, and it puts on display the sharply diverging strategies the candidates are pursuing as they hurtle toward the first real test of the 2008 campaign.”
The Clinton, Edwards, and Obama camps seem to agree with this:
The MSNBC/McClatchy/Mason-Dixon poll isn’t the only new Iowa survey out today. A Reuters/C-Span/Zogby tracking poll has Clinton ahead (outside the margin of error) over Obama and Edwards, 31%-27%-24%. On the GOP side, it’s Huckabee 29%, Romney 28%, McCain 11%, and Thompson, Giuliani, and Paul all tied at 8%.
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Say this about Huckabee, he really can handle tough questions. Under intense questioning from NBC’s Tim Russert, Huck never lost his cool. He passed the Pakistan pop quiz of sorts and even got in some harsh Romney digs, calling him dishonest. And in defending his running on his faith, Huckabee reminded viewers he didn't try and replace the Arkansas capital dome with a steeple. Bottom line: The guy is comfortable in his own skin and despite the array of tough questions he received, he never didn't smile or stay calm.
As far as Obama, who followed Huckabee on Meet the Press, the senator sounded a bit stuffed up. Then again, so are we... Obama stuck behind David Axelrod's comments about Clinton, her Iraq vote and Pakistan. While he didn't accept the idea there was a causal relationship with the Iraq vote, he used it as an example on judgment.
Obama compared himself to Bill Clinton and claimed he had more formal foreign policy experience now than Bill Clinton did in ‘92. That's something the Clinton folks may pounce on.
"We're not that far away from normal." Might be one of the more fascinating quotes, he said in terms of saying what he meant when he said his wife said he wouldn't run again if he lost...
