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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Vote for Huck, a vote for Rudy?

Posted: Saturday, December 01, 2007 3:40 PM by Domenico Montanaro



From NBC/NJ's Erin McPike
DUBUQUE -- Remember "a vote for Nader is a vote for Bush?"

Seven years later, something like it may be back. At least in Iowa, is a vote for Huckabee, a vote for Giuliani?

At a house party meeting of the Iowa Christian Alliance here last night, surprise guest Jim Bopp, a conservative activist and RNC committeeman from Indiana who's endorsed Romney, issued this warning, "I believe that a vote for any one other candidate in the Iowa caucuses is a vote for Rudy Giuliani. This is the only man who can stop him from getting the nomination."

But the "anyone else" really wasn't anyone other than the second man from Hope. "My realistic choice is that either a conservative is going to emerge that has the ability, the campaign, the money, to compete with Rudy Giuliani in a very compressed primary season," Bopp said, putting extra emphasis on the word, "money," "or Rudy Giuliani will be our nominee. That is the choice." He then cited Romney for being the conservative who's raised the most money and has the ground organization to compete.

Immediately after, Bopp said, "You know, I love Mike Huckabee. I love the guy. He's great on life; he's great on family. But one thing I know for sure, he does not have the resources to compete."

Near the end of Romney's appearance, the candidate said after pointing out that both Bopp and ICA President Steve Scheffler had brought up Huckabee first, "We're both, I believe, almost identical on the issues of life and marriage and some of the issues that are of great concern to you. But we share a different view on immigration, for instance. So there are places where we do have some difference," he said, segueing from his initial answer on an education question into the contrast between the two due to Huckabee's support for in-state tuition aid for the children of illegal immigrants.

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Mike Huckabee has exploded from ashes of obscurity, and has soared into the sunlit heavens of national awareness almost overnight.  In the same way, he'll go from "awareness" to national celebrity status if he wins in Iowa.  As far as his ability to win Americans' hearts, Huckabee is the 21st century Reagan, let there be no doubt.  Right now, Huckabee is:

1st in Iowa
2nd in Florida
2nd in Texas
2nd/3rd in New Hampshire
2nd in the nation (latest Rasmussen daily tracking number shows him 5% ahead of Romney)

Huckabee is rising whether the naysayers like it or not.  Grab your board and catch the wave--it'll soon be tsunami!

"Give Hope Another Chance"
www.mike-huckabee.blogspot.com
Fred Thompson...not liberals Rudy, Huckabee or Romney...WILL BE OUR NEXT PRESIDENT....the TRUE CONSERVATIVE...THE MAN REAGAN WOULD HAVE CHOSEN!!
Dueling Evangelists come to Iowa. This morning we got snow and sleet. I can't tell if Pat Robertson sent it to vex the Romney Evangelists, or if they sent it to vex Rudy's, or if Huckabee called God because they were short-sheeting him, or if Jesus sent it to vex Huckabee for using him as a joke button. I'm afraid to send out for a pizza for fear they'd deliverance  a banjo! Nobody beats'em for Holy Obfuscation, except maybe the Weatherman.
hhmm...ya know...living here in Sioux City IA, I know many people involved with ICA in some way or another.  A great portion support Huckabee...
Somebody's shaking in his boots.
This is crazy... Romney is falling like a late November Leaf and Huckabee is charging.  You must realize that if Huckabee does real well in Iowa that more money will come to him and Romney will dry up.  Romney is a flip-flopper and has no chance of being president.  Huckabee is the only guy that continues to do well in every debate. He can win it all.
Using the fear voters have for an opposing candidate as a way to coerce them into abandoning a rising hopeful such as Mike Huckabee is underhanded.  Money does not make a candidate, and it is not making Mitt Romney.  Even with his millions, his support continues to level off and decline.  Huckabee is meeting his campaign fundraising goals every month while gaining national and local percentage points daily, and he will continue to do just that.  The people who support Huckabee enthusiastically support Huckabee.  A supporter for Romney should not be in the business of intimidating other voters to go for that person's candidate.  If the candidate cannot convince the public by his or her qualities, then that candidate should not win.  Leave the politics to the politicians, and let the candidates race in a democratic manner that befits their characters, without the elementary school shenanigans.  
Mike Huckabee is the 1st presidential candidate to "jazz" me since Ronald Reagan.  As president, he will lead our nation from a solid set of core convictions & integrity. That is what Iowans are beginning to discern.  just watch what happens when the rest of American discovers Mike!
Anyone interested in a funny (but it really happened) column about what Huckabee is really like face-to-face should try:
http://goupstate.us/index.php/lanefiller/2007/11/02/title_14

If you like Huckabee for goodness sake vote Huckabee. If he is underfunded it is simply because you don't send him a check. Put your money where your mouth is and stop these insipid excuses. I sent Huckabee $2000 so far. Just DO the right thing folks.I never gave to anyone before. THAT is how impressed I am with this guy. He can COMMUNICATE. We need THIS guy to throw Hillary in the back alley. She would never survive his simplest smile. It will be a hoot to watch!
   If you want higher taxes, chunks of you children’s scholarships going to illegal immigrants, increased national debt, and a sanctuary country Huckabee is your man.  Personally, I want the national budget balanced.  Romney has the business genius to do what we as a nation have begged for my entire life- LET'S ELECT SOMEONE THAT CAN GET THIS NATION OUT OF DEBT.  Go Romney!
Romney is a political opportunist. I initially supported him, but he so rapidly changes his positions it's hard to keep track. Did you know he supported early guest worker programs, that he now calls amnesty?
Personally, I'd like a guy who has a consistent position based on reason and principles that I disagree with over a man who happen to agree with today because his position changed.
The problems demcrats had in the last election they sought someone "who can beat Bush" not who can win.  I'm for Huck because he can win. (as for the National Debt if you are really concerned call your Senaators everyday...they are the ones who create the pork and the budget sent to the President.)
Romney's got this families vote!
Daniel...you do realize that Huckabee balanced the budget every year he was in Arkansas...and left the state with an $800mil surplus?

This article is further proof that Romney is scared to death right now as he sees his worst fears coming true: He's spent $8mil in Iowa vs. $300,000 spent by Huckabee...and he's now TRAILING Huckabee in Iowa and in the national polls. It's proof that the American voters can't be bought.  There has to be substance, and Romney's horrendous performance in the debate Wednesday night is causing him to sink like a rock, no matter how much he spends.  Romney's biggest disaster in the debate was when Anderson Cooper asked, "Governor Romney, you once said that you 'dreamed of the day that gays would be able to serve openly in the military.'  Do you still dream of that day?"  Romney refused to answer (ala Hillary).

I think Iowans and other Americans are seeing through his BS and money, and are realizing his many flip flops, like these embarrassments:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a9IJUkYUbvI
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P_w9pquznG4&feature=related
So tell me again, people are going to vote for Huckabee and his experience in the world is running a back office religious show and being a reverend and then a governor  for a very small state....? You have to be kidding me!
Chris,

Huckabee raised so many taxes that it would be hard NOT to balance a budget.  I like him too, but he is not a fiscal conservative.  That is why I will not vote for him.

For backup on the tax hikes, see: http://www.arkansasleader.com/2007/11/editorialswhos-biggest-tax-raiser.html

Also, Huck went from a 6 billion dollar budget to a 16 billion dollar budget - wow!  Tax and spend!  Tax and spend!

Sorry, but Huck can't balance a checkbook.  

Romney, on the other hand, is a proven financial genius.  It is ridiculous to me that evangelicals ignore Romney because he is Mormon.  He's perfect for the job, and they know it.  

A vote for Romney is a vote for our economy.
What is amazing is that republicans can continue to be republicans. blind faith in such a party just leaves you blind.

republicans hate AMERICA and middle class children.

dukakis,kerry,romney.another liberal from mass.
Huckabee sounds good, and honestly, I think he's probably a nice guy, but frankly, he is far too weak on national security and taxes for me to take him seriously.  Huckabee dodges questions about taxes because he knows that he's been happy to raise taxes far too many times in Arkansas.
Romney reminds me of Warren Jeffs since they belong to the same Mormonism cult founded by Joseph Smith.  As a candidate, Romney shifts positions and flip flops so much that he has rendered himself UNELECTABLE in the primary.  Nice to see you waste all those millions, Mormon Mitt.
I don't see why there isn't more press about why liberals would rather face ANYONE but Dr. Ron Paul. Much as we'd like politics to be positive, it is in fact ruled almost entirely by negatives. For instance, what's the biggest negative the Republican Party is facing in 2008? Iraq - a staggering 70% of people favor IMMEDIATE withdrawl from Iraq. Who is the only candidate that doesn't have that negative? Dr. Paul, who advocates using those trillions of dollars to secure our border (perhaps against Saudis who were 20 of the 24 terrorists in 9/11) and rebuild our crumbling infrastructure which is far more worrying than the loss of Social Security. Hm, full employment, withdrawl from Iraq and a huge boost to our economy from rebuilding our infrastructure - what Democrat wants to run against that. Hence the behavior of known liberal biased network CNN, who wants us to nominate either Guiliani or Romney - both of whose negatives are so high the copy practically writes itself!
My wife and I are totally committed to the Huckabee campaign. We will be doing our best to get the folks here in Northern California to support Mr. Huckabee. Sorry Mitt you can't buy our vote, maybe you should try some real grassroots campaigning like our boy Huckabee.
I am a registered democrat , non religous family man,
and the only candidate that has sparked my attention since Ross Perot is Mike Huckabee. I am not a rich man, but, I am sending Mike $100 bucks a week because I believe in him.
Actually, David in Jackson WY,
The list of Huckabee's accomplishments is impressive, to say the least. I have never known of another politician (and spouse) who have done more good for the sake of doing good, and I've been in and around politics 30 yrs.+-. You might want to check out http://www.explorehuckabee.com
It's a pretty good jumping-off-spot
I'm still not 100% decided, but leaning toward Huckabee.
American citizens come first, illegals need to get deported. Huckabee wants to reward/support them and their children with our tax dollars.  I will not be voting for Huckabee for a number of reasons, but the ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION issue and the WAR are ranked at the top of my list. Ron Paul is the only true conservative running in Republican party. We need to put an end to birthright citizenship and start securing our borders now. We need to bring our troops home from this never ending war that is depleting our nation economically/financially, and killing our American soldiers.  Our Country can longer support these costs, the middle class is broke, and so is our Country. Ron Paul will cut this spending and cut taxes as well, it can be done.
Don't mean to burst anyone's bubble...but, can someone please explain to me (maybe 'spin' might be a better choice) why, Ron Paul beats Mike Huckabee 37 to 6 in all the recent Republican straw polls? Paul virtually crushed him in last night's Virginia Straw Poll.
Neither Huck nor Romney have the smarts or the character to be President..they can't hold a candle to say.....Bill Clinton in terms of world and political knowledge...Edwards , Obama , Dodd , Biden and Hillary are all bright enough.......but these Rootys , Freds and the rest are all such small minded people...look where a small mind has put us in the last seven years...can we afford more of the same ?
Mike Huckabee's surge is the voice of America saying Washington is not for sale...any more!
Doug, true a Huckabee win in Iowa will translate into fundraising and increased media attention, but given the condensed timeline, will he have enough time to translate those advantages into an organization that can compete on Tsunami Tuesday?

I'm not saying he can't, but it will be harder than in past cycles. And I know the counter-argument is: if he can win in Iowa without these things, why can't he win anywhere else without money and organization? I don't have an answer for that one, except to point out I can't think of an example of that happening from past elections.
With respect to Mike Hukabee, with all due respect, every time he spoke in the debate, I could only think of "Gomer Pyle", in his speech and manner. I'm sorry!

Additionally, there are major flaws in his Immigration position. Mr. Romney was right, It's Not Your Money! I cannot even imagine Mr. Hukabee going head to head with China or Czar Putin.

Let me finish by saying, the last minister type President we had was Jimmy Carter.

What we need is a Junk Yard Dog to deal with the incredible problems and challenges ahead. Wait, let me rephrase that, we need a Junk Yard Dog With A Brain," enough said.
Eventually, I hope people will see Rudy for what he is, a democrat pretending to be a Republican.  As scandals about what he really did in NY continue to come to light, and I think people will see him for who he is.  Every stance he has is liberal except for the war.  Huckabee is now entering the spotlight, and it will burn him on putting illegals ahead of our own college students.  It will also burn him on his lack of experience running anything but a congregation.  He is creating the magnets that attract illegals to sneak in here.  Huckabee will also be fried on his actual record in taxes.  He may have made cuts, but he also made increases that resulted in a net increase in taxes.  He is a charismatic smooth talker Preacher, but his record will tear him apart.
Oh, and on Romney's refusal to answer about gays in the military, he said not now.  He has said that before, because he doesn't want to completely change the military's infrastructure in the middle of a war.  And as far as our military being professional enough to handle gays, we need to pause for a minute.  No matter how professional the organization, we have to realize that the majority of the troops are 18-25 year olds.  Many of them have never been through a higher learning program or apprenticeship of any kind.  They come from all sorts of backgrounds, and I don't see how you can expect there to suddenly not be a prejudice or ignorant troop among them just because the gov suddenly says they have to work with gays.  Also, the passions of young men ought to be considered whether it is straight males in combat alongside women or gay men alongside men in combat.  It has been a long slow road into incorporating women into the combat ranks, and I wouldn't expect gays to just suddenly be able to be open about it.
To Mark from Pasadena, saying Warren Jeffs and Mitt Romney belong to the same religion is like saying a Catholic and someone from the Church of England belong to the same religion. One of the differences between the LDS and FLDS churches is with the LDS church ceasing to practice polygamy in the late 1800's and the subsequent offshoot churches (like the FLDS) in the decades since over this subject. Normally, personal attacks on one's religion do not bother me, but Warren Jeffs is going to prison for a long time. While Mr. Romney does have his faults and missteps in government, there is no comparison between the two men. P.S. I am LDS, and I am leaning more towards Huckabee.
I've watched and listened carefully to the candidates themselves(not to others who tell me what the candidates supposedly are saying.  I am convinced that Romney is absolutely the best candidate in the race and will make the best President.  Let's support Romney!
All the more reason to despise Willard.
Mark- you are a bigot.  Mitt Romney is NOT from the same religion as Warren Jeffs and they are not even remotely alike.  Yes, their religions started from the same source nearly 200 years ago, but then all protestant religions stem from Catholicism, so what's your point?  Are you claiming that all Methodists and Presbyterians (to name a few) are the same as all Catholics?  For that matter, all Christian religions stem from the teachings of Christ, and all Christians, Jews, and Muslims stem from the seed of Abraham.  Shall I go on?

How narrow minded can you possibly be?

I am LDS (NOT FLDS), I'm delighted that Warren Jeffs is in jail, and I may or may not vote for Romney (I'm also considering Huckabee and one or two democrats)... but at least I'm smart enough to consider he candidates' policies and platform rather than focus on whether or not I like or agree with their personal religions.
Derak- thank you for making that point.  My understanding of Romney's comment in the last debate was that he didn't think "don't ask don't tell" would work, but he's been proven wrong.  I don't think he's necessarily against gays being open, but rather that what's working now during a time of war, should be left alone until a time of peace where social issues can be addressed safely.  You're right, it took a long time for women to be in the military.  Still (obviously) women's showers (and often bunks) are in separate locations.  The difference with gays/lesbians is do you separate that?  Do you ignore it?  I wouldn't want to be in a communal shower with a bunch of heterosexual men any more than I'd want to be in a group shower with homosexual women.  I have gay friends.  I don't agree with their lifestyle, but I don't condemn them or judge them either- that is not my place. Nevertheless, we have to think of the safety of all our troops, including the gays who could be "persecuted" by less than accepting young men and women.

By the way, I also agree with you (derak) on Giuliani.

The main thing holding me back about Huckabee is that I don't know what he thinks about most of the most important issues. I know he reads the Bible literally and I know he thinks Jesus was smart for not being a politician, but what hard questions has he ever had to answer in the debates?  He got drilled a little by Romney on immigration (Romney was right), and a little by Thompson on taxes (Thompson was right).  So on those two points I disagree with Huckabee... but what are his thoughts on Healthcare, the war, the economy????  Sure, I've read all the candidates websites and they all look great that way, but until your views can hold up in a debate, I'm not sure I can believe that you can beat Hilary or any of the other experienced democrats...  Just my opinion. :)
Reagan would have chosen Ron Paul, especially since Ron Paul actually worked on his 1976 Presidential campaign.  Given that most Americans value security over American values, Ron Paul's chances may be remote, but he is already beating McCain and Thompson in New Hampshire and is on track to win it altogether.  Also, unlike Huckabee and Thompson, Ron Paul is the only conservative with enough money to capitalize on an early primary win.  If my voice mattered in Iowa or New Hampshire I'd vote Ron Paul for sure.  If Huckabee wins both, and Guiliani is still a threat, I may vote for Huckabee instead.  No one besides Ron Paul and maybe John McCain will rein in spending, but at least Huckabee will not commit adultery and use public funds to pay for it as Guiliani did.
"Given that most Americans value security over American values, Ron Paul's chances may be remote, but he is already beating McCain and Thompson in New Hampshire and is on track to win it altogether."

Rachel- what do you mean by this sentence?  Do you mean that Americans value national security over social issues?  that makes sense doesn't it?  I mean if we don't have a secure country, we won't have the freedoms that our social issues require...

Another question:  From what poll are you getting your information about Ron Paul's standing?  From everything I've seen, he's trailing the top 5 GOP candidates (Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee, McCain, and Thompson) everywhere except New Hampshire, where he's in 5th place (only in front of Thompson- not in front of McCain).

I've noticed that there are a lot of really outspoken Paul supporters on the internet, but he doesn't seem to do very well in debates- he gets boo'd more than anyone else.   One person on one of these blogs claimed that the dem candidates are most "afraid" of having to be up against him- I don't see why since they agree on the war.  Frankly he comes off as smarmy to me, but we're all entitled to our own opinions, right?

By the way, try http://www.realclearpolitics.com/
it lists all the most recent polls along with an average showing who is in the lead.  Nationally its still Giuliani, unfortunately.


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