Clinton leads in new polling

Posted: Monday, December 03, 2007 12:00 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
A new AP-Pew poll shows Clinton ahead nationally and in the three early nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. This poll will likely get a lot of play, because it is connected with a wire service, but it should be noted that the state polls were conducted over two-and-a-half weeks from Nov. 7 to 25. The national poll was conducted from Nov. 20 to 26.

In Iowa, the poll finds Clinton leading -- within the margin of error -- Obama and Edwards, 31%-26%-19%. Richardson holds at 10%. In New Hampshire, the New York senator leads Obama two to one, 38%-19%. Edwards is close behind with 15% and Richardson, again, was fourth with 10%. In South Carolina, Clinton also holds a double-digit lead, 35%-21%, over Obama. Edwards is third with 10%. In the Palmetto State, Clinton and Obama split the black vote (Obama 44%, Clinton 43%), but Clinton leads disproportionately among whites.

Nationally, where Clinton has led for months, she is ahead of Obama and Edwards, 48%-22%-11%.

EMAIL THIS

Comments

Did anybody Notice this poll started a MONTH ago.

Patrick (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:08 PM)

A second poll of Iowa out this morning has Clinton with an even bigger lead. It's conducted by the Iowa State University, and it is line with the Pew poll, with Clinton 7% ahead of runner-up Edwards. Numbers: http://www.campaigndiaries.com/2007/12/and-plot-thickens-new-early-state-polls.html

Daniel, NY (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:13 PM)

A Month Out, Iowa State University Releases New Hawkeye Numbers
Monday, December 3rd, 2007

Dems: Clinton 31, Edwards 24, Obama 20, Richardson 11
GOP: Romney 25, Huckabee 22, Giuliani 16, Thompson 9, McCain 8.

http://thepage.time.com/2007/12/03/iowa-state-university-releases-new-iowa-numbers/

How many momentum shifts will there be, and how many mood swings will we see here? It's going to be fun. In fact, it's fun right now...

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:17 PM)

I'm glad the Clinton campaign got some encouraging news . . . I was afraid her head was going to fall off if she got anymore bad news!

Hopefully this will calm her down enough so that she can regain her composure - I'm starting to see the springs falling out of her back . . .

Nashville_fan (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:17 PM)

Enough with polls! You look hard enough and you will find a poll that says "The Earth is Flat" and the first astronaut on the moon was filmed in Hollywood.

A.Brocco,Albuquerque, NM (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:18 PM)

Poll shmoll! She's gonna lose big! The thought of the low rent Clinton's back in the White House is nightmarish to most voters!

American Voter (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:19 PM)

Nice numbers!!

Can't wait 'till this is over and Hillary can concentrate on beating the GOP nominee!! We're going back to the Whitehouse, no more war, no more fading middle class. It'll be safe to be an average American again.

mike oh (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:20 PM)

Oh, let me guess the connection: Madeline Albright is PEWs advisor on foreign relations, so no thank you won't believe that poll that started a month ago, even before the last democratic debate!!

Yolanda (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:22 PM)

No big deal, shows the same thing the other polls consistently show, Iowa is a tie. The New Hampshire numbers obviously don't reflect the trend over the past month, but considering the poll started a month ago, no surprise.

Expect Hillary's absurd attacks to lower her further in the polls

Don, TX (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:24 PM)

Van...Chuck address this Iowa poll on MSNBC I believe he stated like the AP poll it is older than the Register poll ( note: they give NO DATES for the poll) even though they only released it today. In addition the Register is considered the GOLD STANDARD

Actually that brings up a good question why would you take a poll and hold the results for several days or weeks? I guess you release them when your candidate needs them...you think?

Joyce (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:28 PM)

Obviously, these polls by themselves don't point to a Clinton comeback. For one, the Pew poll was taken from November 7th to the 25th, muddying the results. Furthermore, there still remains a big problem for Hillary: She lags against both her opponents in the Pew poll when voters are asked their "second choice," something that can obviously play a big role in the caucuses

Dante (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:29 PM)

DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- Democrat Barack Obama was endorsed Sunday by the mayor of Iowa's largest city and predicted more criticism ahead from presidential rivals as his political fortunes keep brightening.

Meeting with reporters, Obama trotted out Des Moines Mayor Frank Cownie, who last month won a second term. He has focused on global warming and other environmental issues. "Senator Obama has made a promise and is willing an open-minded enough to listen to the mayor of the capital city of Iowa," Cownie said. "Together we can make change in Iowa."

Dante (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:31 PM)

Exactly. I'm quite sure she is still ahead, both nationally and in the early states. Obama continues to be the long-shot candidate. Now hopefully everyone will calm down.

cms (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:31 PM)

Why does First Read only put Clinton in the headline as "leading",when the same poll shows that Romney is also leading in Iowa?

John, Lake Worth, Florida (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:33 PM)

Another Mark Penn way of distracting the good news that is for Obama. We all know how Clintonite likes to play the game of psychology.

The real poll that counts is the Desmoine Registered poll that started from Nov 25-28 2007. Hillary Clinton and Mark Penn (AP) polls started from Nov. 7 to 25

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?category=iowapoll07

Here is what an educated reader and writer must ask themselves; which is more accurate?

Is it the one that was taken from Nov 7-25 or Nov 25-28?

I am sure the people of IOWA will take their hometown news paper more seriously.

Bee, NH (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:33 PM)

Seriously...done a month ago. Why don't we have a new poll discussing how Huckabee is slipping because of a poll done a month ago. Get your act together.

Patrick, Waterville, ME (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:33 PM)

American Voter you need to visit pollingreport.com which lists ALL POLLS and you'll find Mrs. Clinton leading and beating every democrat and republican candidate. NOt sure where you are getting your data ....Jerry maybe???

RGO, California (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:34 PM)

"God, please give us an election in which a Bush or a Clinton isn't on the ballot. Amen."

Jeremiah P., Austin, TX (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:36 PM)

What's most alarming is the press - trying to create a horserace of who's pulling ahead and who's losing - can the news stop trying to create the news and just cover it. I'd much rather a thoughtful analysis of the variations of the different polls in Iowa, then the dramatic type of stories - Clinton Wounded, Obama Ahead, or Clinton is Inevitable (I don't believe she ever said that; it's been the press)...I'm starting to wonder what the difference is between Reuters and The Enquirer!

bbln (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:38 PM)

Mike, Oh Mike oh you have truly drank the cool-aid.
Your response reminds me of that scene in Dr. Zhivago when the communist take over and the old man asks what it is all about and the commorade starts spewing out the party line: "Each according to his needs each according to his work", Marxist stuff like that which Hilary believes and will use if and when she can. She is a commie Mike. If you say she is not then you have not done your homework. Do you want a communist in the White House? Do you want the old "Bill and Hill show. Except this time there will be an unleashed Hillary. A meglomaniac with visions of grandeur and a cemetary full of the suicides and strange accidents. May you not get what you wish for and may God spare the rest of us.

dale hendon, Sunnyvale, CA (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:40 PM)

New Poll?

We've known this since November 25th it is now December 4th a full 10 days since the poll was released.

Spinnning an old poll as a new one is slightly ok very wrong. I see at least 4 polls closing after it on real clear politics all of them with tighter timeframes making them more relevant.

A 10 day delay is a lifetime in primary politics.

Adam, Sacramento (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:45 PM)

The AP poll is out of date.

heather (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:46 PM)

HAHAHAHA!! Funny when the polls show Obama leading they are gospel. And now that they show Clinton leading you find all these things wrong with it or say they don't mean a thing! You Obama supporters are just as phony as the candidate. There's still time to get on board with a winner! Wouldn't it be nice to finally be able to say "I voted for the democrat that won!"? Come on people! Wake up and recognize! Hillary Clinton IS going to be the nominee! Let's not give the republicans anything to attack her with, let's show our overwhelming support! You will all feel better about yourself and your hopes! Clinton '08!

steve daytona beach (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:46 PM)

The Iowa State poll is not worth much given that it has a 6 percent margin of error. Most reliable polls have a margin of error of less than 5 percent. Thus the discrepancy that it shows Huckabee in second and Edwards in second. All recent polls with less margins of error have shown Edwards in third and Huckabee in first.

As far as the Pew poll it is a month old! It includes what Iowans were thinking almost a month ago. Alot has changed since then.

If one looks at polls done recently (conducted over a three day period) with a respectable margin of error (less than five percent) three of the four show Obama and Huckabee ahead. That is the state of the race in Iowa.

MK, Los Angeles, California (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:49 PM)

Clinton is the worst possible candidate. In case no one has noticed, the reason Obama and Huckabee are winnning Iowa is becasue they are POPULISTS that propose ending or curbing outsourcing and guest workers (8 million Amercian engineers, scientists and computer programmers have lost their jobs to cheap young replacements from India and China --- 90% of new high tech hires are on those visas!). Now, the Clinton's *own* a company that provides those guest workers, Clinton as a part of her Senatorial career, travelled to India to promote even more H1-B workers. As we enter into this recession, remember that the greedy Wall Street crowd and outsourcing and "free traitors" just like Clinton are the very cause of it! Corrupt, dirty Clinton has no issues. Her "health care plan" is a 200 billion dollar give-away to the health industry and everything else she blathers about has to do with radical feminism and the most extrme gay rights nut jobs. Obama-Edwards for President...because this Democrat wont even vote Democrat, even for the local dog catcher, if Clinton is on the ticket!

Mike Brooks, Eugene, Oregon (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:51 PM)

People, please!!!

What an irresponsible poll! These results were compiled over THREE WEEKS!!!!!

They say almost nothing of the CURRENT state of the campaign.

This is another shamefully biased and irresponsible poll!!

Aaron, Saint Paul, MN (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:53 PM)

Iowa State University Poll has NO INFORMATION other than the margin which is 6 percentage points that is alot. No dates when taken, etc.

Lynn, Millington (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:54 PM)

<b>2008 Presidential Election Weekly Poll</b>

<a href="http://www.votenic.com">http://www.votenic.com</a>

The Only Poll That Matters.
Results Posted Every Tuesday Evening.

votenic (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:02 PM)

Dale Hendon,

Yes, I enjoy a glass of cool refreshing kool aid often, black cherry is my favorite if you must know.

A cemetary of strange suicides and accidents? Someone's been reading too much Poe, or maybe Ann Coulter, they're both pretty scary, though Poe has a much better grasp of story structure. If she's a commie for wanting tax breaks for the middle class (me and everyone I know), easier and cheaper access to higher education for the middle class (me and everyone I know) affordable health coverage for me and everyone I know, then I guess I'm all for communism, except the whole wearing burlap bags for cloths and picking potato crops, I wouldn't want to do that. Do you think we'll have to??

mike oh (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:09 PM)

MK,MO (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:14 PM)

You know you cant win without hilliary supporters so keep up the trash talk during the primaries .Your hatred for hilliary wont help your canidate.

kenn (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:15 PM)

As I've said before, Hillary people should realize that a good number of Democrats who support other candidates for the nomination, will not vote for Hillary in the general (were we so unfortunate to have her as the standard bearer). She is as much of a wedge as she is a polarizer.

I guess that this fact shouldn't affect your support for her, as I am one who believes that you should support the candidate who most represents your beliefs, and not make the pragmatic choice, based on who has the best chance of winning.

Still, rightly or wrongly (and I think this has as much to do with the insincerity of her husband, who with much fanfare, announced last week that he was against the war in Iraq from the beginning, haha, I guess he thinks that the propaganda machine can over-ride 'sex, lies and videotape') this is a fact and if Hillary does win the nomination it will not bode well for the Democrats. Even Jerry, knows that.
Obama '08

Mitchell Feldman, Vestal, NY (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:15 PM)

jean (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:17 PM)

The Iowa State poll is not worth much given that it has a 6 percent margin of error. Most reliable polls have a margin of error of less than 5 percent.

MK, Los Angeles, California (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 12:49 PM)

Exactly. The fact that the sample size is so large, yet the margin of error is also unusually large, indicates that the bigger the poll window, the less accurate the results. It has nothing to do with who is ahead. You actually can't tell who is really ahead with a margin of error that size.

CitizenJ (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:18 PM)

they must have done all their polls in san francisco, Hillary is a joke like her perverted husband who pardoned criminals, terrosists, and hard drug dealers for money, while Hillary was stealing the
whitehouse furniture, all you Clinton backers will be totally embarrased when all this is brought out in tv ads. Just like the people in Arkansas giving her money, and forgetting she called them all hicks to her gf when she first came with Bill. There will be a president from Hope Arkansas. I like Mike

David Anders Pharr, Tx (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:22 PM)

Gee, these Obama people are sounding so ... what's the word I'm looking for here ... shrill????

mike oh (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:22 PM)

This has been one heck of a time for Hillary......

attacks Obama for having a PAC, then we learn she got money from it....

her husband contends he was against the war all along, yet the facts shows he backed the President.....

Some nutjob takes people hostage in her offices.....

She takes some quotes from Obama about wanting to be president when he was 4 years old....

and it's only Monday.....

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:25 PM)

Iowa Rep. Braley endorses John Edwards!!
Braley is one of 3 Iowa Dem U.S. reps.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/12/3/111422/479

Margaret, NYC (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:27 PM)

One question I have for you Hillary haters is" As a democrat who would love not having a republican in the white house in 09, will you support Hillary IF she becomes the democatic nominee"???

Mike. MD (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:32 PM)

attacking Obama's character has already caused Clinton to lose support among black voters. It was all over black radio this A.M. It is a fine line she has to walk and I think she may have just stepped over it

--------------------------------------------------

I thought i was the only one that heard it. She is going to loose big on this issue of "Character". The AA community are getting upset with Hillary Clinton for attacking Obama's childhood.

Bee (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:33 PM)

if you can't find anything more meaningful to post than pre-historic poll numbers in an attempt to pump up the hillary, don't post anything, hillary ain't going to win and edwards is still very much a possibility much to your dismay

MK,MO (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:14 PM)

Nice to see that you're arguing about polls now rather than against them...Here are the polling and end dates for the most recent polls. The Iowa Univ. numbers aren't available yet.

DMR poll 11/25-28 end date 11/28
ARG 11/26-29 end date 11/29
RAS 11/26-27 end date 11/27
Pew 11/07-25 end date 11/25
SV 11/23-25 end date 11/25

Which poll is pre-historic? There is a four day difference between the end dates for the polls with the ARG poll having the latest end date.
Dates for all the polls can be found here;
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

(Even though I post these links most every morning, so many seem unwilling or unable to follow a link before treating everyone to their half-baked analysis.)

The polls all indicate that the race is a close contest between the top 3. As an Edwards supporter, what can he do to keep his name in the news and not be crowded out by all of the Clinton v. Obama coverage?
I know you hate Clinton, but Edwards CAN'T be third in the caucus if he wants to go forward, and that means that he must defeat one or both of them. How's he do it?

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:36 PM)

One question I have for you Hillary haters is" As a democrat who would love not having a republican in the white house in 09, will you support Hillary IF she becomes the democatic nominee"???
Mike. MD
----------------------------------------------------

Let me give you a straight answer "NO". Don't ask my why? But if you do, here is my answer "I don't trust her"

Bee (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:36 PM)

Mike. MD / no I won't back hillary if she's nominated, bush-lite doesn't appeal to most voters, she can't win the general election anyway, if the dems want to be in the whitehouse come 08 they best nominate edwards, no other dem can win the general election, that's just the cold hard facts

MK,MO (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:41 PM)

Obama is a phony - NOT a populist!
Obama voted to - confirm Condi Rice, voted FOR more NAFTA via the Oman FTA last year and supports the Peru FTA!!
Obama endorsed and campaigned for Joe Lieberman - and as soon as he was elected to the senate, Obama began voting FOR every war funding bill for a war he supposedly "opposed." He suddenly began voting against war funding when he became a presidential candidate.

Corporate lobbyists and PACs have funded Obama's political career from Illinois to the Senate. But he stopped taking their money in 2007 when he became a presidential candidate. ha! as if they won't remember who paved his way.

Anita, Savannah, GA (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:41 PM)

Its a fine line to cross well unfotunatly the line is "Now the brothers and sisters are going to run things"Thats MAYOR STREET after his election .Philadelpia couldnt be more dangerous.I moved when I realized we had a racisrt mayor.I would rater have someone who supports blacks ,whites and any color we may have,than prove to any race

kenn (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:41 PM)

"Let me give you a straight answer "NO". Don't ask my why? But if you do, here is my answer "I don't trust her" -- Bee

Good to see you'll be helping keep our kids over in Iraq, maybe they'll get to see Terhan under President Guilliani too.

mike oh (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:42 PM)

well, although I think Edwards is the most electible, he is still trailing in the polls... It amazes me that no one else sees that...

M (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:45 PM)

jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:47 PM)

Mike. MD--I am not a Hillary Hater and I will support her if she is the nominee but I am hoping for a nominee who can win big, not just win. We do not need a close election. We need a shut out. A humiliating trouncing for the Republicans. By all that I read and in watching the Republican Debate audience reaction, Senator Clinton is red meat to their base. She angers and energizes. We need a nominee that moderate Republicans and Conservative Democrats can support. We need a nominee that disgruntled Republicans can feel comfortable enough with to allow them to stay home to punish the GOP for abandoning classic conservatism. We need to throw out our usual play book and try being smart...FOR A CHANGE.

Gary Schear, Bozeman Montana (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:49 PM)

The most reliable poll is the Des Moines Register Poll.. However, to make sure the Clintonaites are not cozzy up on this "SINGLE" poll..

Here are some more references where Obama is leading

ABC/Wash Post, Obama +4.0
http://abcnews.go.com/images/PollingUnit/1051a1IowaDems.pdf

American Res. Group, Obama + 2.0
http://americanresearchgroup.com/pres08/iadem8-713.html

Strategic Vision (R), Tie
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_112807.htm

So, the trend is Obama is on an upward trajectory!

Bye bye Clinton

Wayne, Silver Spring (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:49 PM)

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