ABOUT FIRST READ

First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Clinton leads in new polling

Posted: Monday, December 03, 2007 12:00 PM by Domenico Montanaro

From NBC’s Domenico Montanaro
A new AP-Pew poll shows Clinton ahead nationally and in the three early nominating states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. This poll will likely get a lot of play, because it is connected with a wire service, but it should be noted that the state polls were conducted over two-and-a-half weeks from Nov. 7 to 25. The national poll was conducted from Nov. 20 to 26.

In Iowa, the poll finds Clinton leading -- within the margin of error -- Obama and Edwards, 31%-26%-19%. Richardson holds at 10%. In New Hampshire, the New York senator leads Obama two to one, 38%-19%. Edwards is close behind with 15% and Richardson, again, was fourth with 10%. In South Carolina, Clinton also holds a double-digit lead, 35%-21%, over Obama. Edwards is third with 10%. In the Palmetto State, Clinton and Obama split the black vote (Obama 44%, Clinton 43%), but Clinton leads disproportionately among whites.

Nationally, where Clinton has led for months, she is ahead of Obama and Edwards, 48%-22%-11%.

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One question I have for you Hillary haters is" As a democrat who would love not having a republican in the white house in 09, will you support Hillary IF she becomes the democratic nominee"???
Mike. MD
----------------------------------------------------

Let me give you a straight answer "NO". Don't ask my why? But if you do, here is my answer "I don't trust her"


Bee (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:36 PM)

----------------------------
I ask you WHY?  WE do not trust YOU to know why so don't bother. Go find some repuke blog and make them happy with your nitwit posts.
No wonder you dims can't win the big one...listen to yourselves patter on about low rent rubbish...clinton is just more of what we've had for 16 years from the bushies and clintons, trianglation, promises broken, lying chiefs of state, partisan hatred, rise of the religious kooks, rise of the globalist kooks, we can't take it anymore...anyone but a clinton or bushie and please no bushie lite like rudy and mitty
Come on guys and girls, do you really believe these so-called new polls. Look at the times they were conducted. The Des Moines poll has always been accepted as the only one that matters in Iowa. This old poll stinks of Clintonomics.
lets face it ,,,,, obama is a repubican.

He prefers republican programs- destroying SS, ending medicare,attacking pakistan,support NCLB.

Senator Clinton polling big among Democrats doesn't mean squat. How are her numbers against any given Republican? You know, the other party that runs in that General election thingy that we have managed to lose to George W. Bush?....Twice! Once I can see but Twice?!
National poll? Let me guess, AP, right? Yup. Another Clinton friendly organization.

With CNN spiking the questions from previous debates, does anyone believe any of the poll results or the media anymore? You've got a very select group of people providing the news, setting the agenda, and all of these peopl have an obvious bias. Why should anyone believe what these people/organizations are telling us?
Bee, you are correct about Lieary loosing support in the African American community. Actually, Edwards is more popular here in my area than both Lieary and Obama. However, the black radio shows are blasting her in Hampton Roads. She is toast and won't win VA.
It all depends on who the GOP nominee is: if it's Mitt or Rudy, Hillary is our girl. If it's Huckabee it's gotta be Edwards who'll beat him. I am sorry, but as charming as Obama is, he doesn't feel like a winner..
Well Folks, It's official, MSNBE has chosen their canidate, by george, IT'S HILLARY CLINTION!!.  
One question I have for you Hillary haters is" As a democrat who would love not having a republican in the white house in 09, will you support Hillary IF she becomes the democatic nominee"???
Mike. MD

+++++++++++++++++++++++

No....I will not vote for Hillary...I would prefer to see a republican than Hillary.
The proper title should be "Clinton leads in old polling" because both of these supposedly "new polls" were conducted before the 4 polls that show the race trending in Obama's direction.

The Iowa State poll was "compiled through phone interviews between Nov. 6-18"
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/ISU_poll_dec_03.html

It's not relevant anymore other than confirming that Hillary has since lost her lead.
The Democratic Party runs a risk of loosing to the Republican Party if they nominate someone that can't win over the republican moderate and independent voters. Evidence in the last few years showed that Hillary Clinton can’t win over the republican moderate let alone the independent voters.

Hillary Clinton has a natural tendency of bashing her opponent and that is not good for general election. She likes to portray opposing view as evil even when she is wrong.  

She is the most polarizing figure aside from George Bush in the American politics. Please don’t ask me why she is polarizing, ask Bill Clinton.
RE: President Clinton's Secretary of Labor Condemns Hillary's Attacks Against Obama

For those ardent Hillary supporters out there. You may want to read a blog by Robert Reich (Secretary of Labor under President Clinton) that was posted just today.  Its title is "Why is HRC stooping So Low?"

http://robertreich.blogspot.com/2007/12/why-is-hrc-stooping-so-low.html

If President Clinton's own Secretary of Labor is rebuking her, you know she's gone over the top.
Folks,

Here is the news break ....

Retired Brigadier General John Adams Endorses Barack Obama


"Barack Obama’s ability to listen and inspire will allow him to shape a new domestic strategy of working together as Americans to safeguard our constitutional liberties and secure the blessings of prosperity for all our citizens,” said John Adams, Brigadier General, US Army (retired).  “His sound judgment and ability to make tough choices under pressure will help him to shape a new international strategy of cooperating with our friends abroad to enhance global peace and security.  We need his vision and integrity to address America's domestic and international challenges.”


The challenges we are facing both domestically and globally require a willingness to change the way we approach problems.  I am proud to have the support of General Adams and I look forward to relying on his sound judgment on international issues and his knowledge of the challenges people are facing in Arizona,” said Senator Barack Obama.

Regardless of what any "new" polls might say, the fact is that Hillary would not be going bezerk if her internal polling did not tell her that there is some meat behind Obama's ascent in the polls.

Usually she hides behind her henchmen, so if she's showing her own teeth it's because she feels there's something to be worried about.

You don't start reaching back to quote essays written by a 5-year-old, and attacking a guy's character because his approach to delivering universal healthcare is different from yours unless something is wrong. Say you don't agree that his approach is best, but when you say it's indicative of a character problem after professing to be "above the politics of personal destruction", there's more going on here.

Within one week, we've heard this from Hillary's team to Obama:

1. Take down your healthcare ad, it’s misleading.
2. Your PAC is illegal, shut it down.
3. Obama’s got “character” and “courage” issues.
4. When you were 5, you said you wanted to be the President, so now you’re flip-flopping.

And, as Hillary said on Sunday, there's more to come.

They're throwing the entire playbook at him to stop him. This is the behavior of a campaign that is afraid.

If Hillary's supporters don't see that, you are blind.
anita, your facts are half truth and half false. it would help you if you did a little research first. it would help us all if we did some research instead of everything that came out by the media. including the polls. some of this stuff is out right lies or slanted that we aren't getting the entire truth people.
Why is HRC stooping so low?" blogs Robert Reich, an old Clinton friend and cabinet secretary -- albeit one who was on the losing side of the key economic policy battles of the Clinton White House. " I’m becoming increasingly concerned about the stridency and inaccuracy of charges in Iowa -- especially coming from my old friend."

Worse still:

Yesterday, HRC suggested O lacks courage. "There's a big difference between our courage and our convictions, what we believe and what we're willing to fight for," she told reporters in Iowa, saying Iowa voters will have a choice "between someone who talks the talk, and somebody who's walked the walk." Then asked whether she intended to raise questions about O’s character, she said: "It's beginning to look a lot like that."

I just don’t get it. If there’s anyone in the race whose history shows unique courage and character, it's Barack Obama. HRC’s campaign, by contrast, is singularly lacking in conviction about anything. Her pollster, Mark Penn, has advised her to take no bold positions and continuously seek the political center, which is exactly what she’s been doing.


http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/


Even her friends are taking note:
'Evidence in the last few years showed that Hillary Clinton can’t win over the republican moderate let alone the independent voters. '

except of course, CLinton slaughted Rudy, with the Upstate republican vote.

but then facts are a weak point for barak
Yeah but according to Hillary she doesnt believe what the polls say..

OH wait thats only when they say she sucks..
One question I have for you Hillary haters is" As a democrat who would love not having a republican in the white house in 09, will you support Hillary IF she becomes the democatic nominee"???
Mike. MD

-------------------------------------------------

No.  I lost all my patience defending Bill when he was president.  Furthermore, the more I see Hillary's fiendish tactics (plants in the audience, arm-twisting correspondants, skewing polls, corperate sponsorship, fraudulent fund-raising, etc.), the more it reminds me of GWBush.  I would rather vote independant or even an honest Republican like Ron Paul.
From WSJ.com Opinion Journal:

'...PEGGY NOONAN
Death, Taxes and Mrs. Clinton
Only two of them are inevitable.

Friday, November 30, 2007 12:01 a.m. EST...'

'....the Clintons perfected a new method of scandal
management that starts with "These are lies spread by
a partisan conspiracy," proceeds to "That's old news,"
and ends a few years later, when detailed books come
out, with "That's rehash for cash." This strategy is
not a constructive contribution to our political
culture, but it has worked in the new environment.
They'll teach it in political science media management courses in the future....'

This strategy covers up everything
Any scandal is 'managable' by the Clintons
They are the most corrupt Democrats in history
But, the Clinton Cult denies everything.....
Divisive Hillary ...

ISU poll was conducted NOV 6-18th. Which raises a question: why were both of these polls embargoed for so long?
Old stale data. The latest polls show Obama in the lead. Check realclear.  Please try to keep up.
'....Mrs. Clinton is acting as if she's scared. She
insists to Katie Couric that she's the next
president--"It will be me"--and she's back to using
the language of aggression -- there's been a lot of
"beat," as in they've been trying to "beat me." In the first 60 seconds of her Couric interview she used some variation on the word "attack" five times. If Mitt Romney talked like this, they'd be asking who put the Red Bull in his milkshake....'

Where's the 'inevitable' Hillary ?
Where did SHE go ??
Running scared ??


Here's Hillary doing her 'George Bush' impersonation
Her campaign manager, Mark Penn is a Rove 'wannabe'..

'...She continues her political kleptomania in terms of themes from the 1988 presidential campaign, which
seems to preoccupy her. A few months ago she was
saying she was born in the middle of America in the
middle of the century, which is what George H.W. Bush
said of Dan Quayle....'

Coincidence ?
The Republican play book !!

'....She proceeded to call herself famous but unknown,
which is what was said of Mr. Bush at the time...'

Wow !!
Annother George Bush !!
Just what America needs !!

'...Now she calls herself ready from day one to be
president. Old Bush's tag line in his '88 commercials
was "Ready on day one to be a great president."...'

Becuase she was a 'glorified housewife'
At least she should be ready from day one to be prepared for Bill's wandering eyes....
And if Bill has a bunch of cigars......

'...This is the first time she's faced a real threat, in Barack Obama, and it's left me thinking about how being The Inevitable is a high-risk game. You can get far being the inevitable choice. A lot of people will believe it and support you, specially the weak, and the pragmatic. They give you early support and early money. Others see the endorsements and contributions.
Another level of giver and supporter kicks in. It
starts to show in the national polls. Everyone knows
you're inevitable.

But there are two problems with this strategy. One is
that your support is by definition broad but shallow.
You have a lot of people, but they won't crawl over
broken glass for you. When I talk to Hillary
supporters they mostly enact a facsimile of what they
think passion is, and are reduced to a dulled
aggression. "We're gonna win."

The second part of the inevitability problem is that
once you seem no longer inevitable--once the polls
stop rising or start to fall, once that air is out of
the balloon and the thing that made everyone fall in
line is gone--well, what do you do? If the main
argument of your candidacy is you're inevitable and
suddenly you're evitable, where does that leave you?
What does it leave you with? Mere hunger. Insistence:
"It will be me."

And anger at this nobody who wasn't even in the Senate when you took the big votes, this cream puff who was a functionary in Chicago when you were getting your head beaten in by Ken Starr. What does Mrs. Clinton do when she's feeling angry? What has she done in the past?
Goodness, this won't be pretty....'

No it won't....
At least J Merle Stanley has been sedated....
That's a start ....


Hillary Clinton, 15 years of dishonesty, scandals adn divisiveness
Who on earth did they poll to get this result? Bill Gates' household? One of the hotels where American high tech companies house Indian H1-B guest workers? Only a suicidal fool would support Clinton, the Queen of outsourcing, the "Senator From India", the Wall Street dolly,  and I don't know many of them. I've been a life long Democrat and I wont vote for her. I'll vote Republican - McCain, Huckabee, Paul, Thompson, maybe even Guliani - before I'd vote for Clinton. The economy is heading into a RECESSION! We have lost million of jobs do to outsourcing and guest workers (and Clinton is part owner of a company that provides H1-B guest workers). We need somepone who will tax Bill Gates for every H1-B worker he has and do the same for IBM and HP and Intel and every other corporation using these tax payer subsidized indentured servants, a 100% salary tax to make it unprofitable to fire perfectly competent older American workers or workers with families (and, consequently higher medical costs), we need a president who will add duties and fees and taxes on goods and services that are produced as a result of outsourcing. We need a leader who understands that we cannot survive in a "service based economy", that we need JOBS! Jobs trump "choice" and "gay rights" and even Wall Street's gobs of money tossed into our political campaigns. Forget Clinton!
This feels liek deja vu.  I don't dislike Hillary, but she has the best chance of losing a general election out of the three candidates.  There are southern independents that would consider edwards or obama but would do ANYTHING to avoid clinton.....so if clinton wins the primary, it looks like 4 years of huckabee trying to figure out the capital of canada or romney trying to figure out what he even believes in anymore....
Mike,

No I won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances.  

I am looking at the next presidential term as one very similar to carter's term in 1976.  An economy off the rails, An energy crisis and massive international political headaches as well as domestic polarization.  In my opinion it's a four year term election as it will take more than 4 years to turn us around.

If I don't have a democrat I'm confident will put into place policies designed to change our course and get us on the correct one, I'll be more than happy to have a republican holding the bag on those four years instead and I'll look to a real democrat for 2012-2020.

In my opinion hillary is Bush-Lite at best.  Polarizing and warlike but talking a compassionate game.  I'm not buying.

I'll likely vote 3rd party if she wins the primary.  I just don't see Hillary healing the wounds but rather ripping open new ones.
Would I support Hillary if she became the democratic nominee?  I would vote for her because the alternatives are worse.  Does that constitute support?

These particular polls are less meaningful to outcome of the Iowa primaries than the recent ones that show a range from Obama +4 to Clinton +2.

The AP poll was initiated when Clinton still had a ~5% lead in Iowa and it closed a week ago.  So it's probably  not the best current indicator of the state of the race.

The Iowa State poll is a registered voter poll, not a likely voter poll like the rest of the Iowa polls released - so it doesn't have much to do with who is going to actually show up and vote at the caucuses.  I would expect Hillary to have a significant advantage among non-LV RV's due to name recognition as those voters are less likely to be engaged and paying attention to the race.
ISU poll was conducted NOV 6-18th. Which raises a question: why were both of these polls embargoed for so long?
Keith, San Francisco, CA
-----------------------------------------------------

I think Mark Penn should answer your question. By now you should know that the Clinton's machine will do anything to sway public opinion.

The poll was in their favor but the AP held unto it, perhaps, they are planning to release it for their own narrative. Guess what?

Their manipulation is not going to work beacuse people are paying close attention.
sierra, glad to see you quote a republican idiot (points of lights, Raygun) ,proving again that obama supporters are truely republicans who want to keep the democrats out of the white house
I still can't get past the fact that she actually said attacking democrats was "the FUN part"!
T'S NOT TO LATE TO JOIN THE WINNING TEAM. hillaryclinton.com
I'm sorry, but the IOWA caucus is a JOKE.  Look that the process and the rules and tell me that it isn't the most manipulative thing going. Hell, if you are just 17 but will be 18 when the general election is held you are premitted to caucus.  There is so much ability to essentially buy off every vote in the state and that is what the money rich campaigns are doing.  Obama can't win outside of IOWA because his money and organization cannot manipulate the vote like they can in IOWA.   That is why Clinton is the better general election candidate. Wake up Obamites or we will end up with another Republican and all those wonderful Supreme Courts judges that will send us back to the 19th century.
mike oh: '....Good to see you'll be helping keep our kids over in Iraq, maybe they'll get to see Terhan under President Guilliani too....'

No !!
I won't vote for Hillary, either

Hillary VOTED FOR Lieberman/Kyl to go to war with Iran !!
She's no less war-like than Giuiliani....
She VOTED FOR WAR WITH IRAQ
She supported the iraq war until public opinion turned
(why didn't she listen to anti-war Bill ?)

As for keeping our troops in Iraq.......
Hillary says she won;t get them out before 2013 !!
No thanks !!
NO SALE !!

Better Ron Paul than Clinton
Better Huckabee than Clinton
Better Nader than Clinton

Hillary Clinton, cold, calculating, dishonest, unethical
Jeremiah- AMEN!!!
The Iowa State poll was taken almost 3 weeks ago.  Come on, MSNBC play fair.  
Robert Reich (Secretary of Labor under President Clinton) that was posted just today.  Its title is "Why is HRC stooping So Low?"
-----------------------------------------
So you can see her and hear her you little stub of a man.  Your level is so close to the ground we are all low to get a look at YOU!
Chuck,San D.: '...'Evidence in the last few years showed that Hillary Clinton can’t win over the republican moderate let alone the independent voters. '

except of course, CLinton slaughted Rudy, with the Upstate republican vote....'

Chuck, Hillary NEVER RAN AGAINST RUDY !!
Rudy pulled out of the race
So, how could she 'slaughter' him ?

'...but then facts are a weak point for barak...'

Please see above, Chuck...
How did you manage to bring Barack into this ?
What 'facts' did Obama miss ?
(other than Bill ALWAYS being anti-war?)

Oh !! and where do the flying saucers figure into your little tale ?

i thought the hillary political machine was smarter that this, why would they bring this four year old obama story,it plays in favor of him ,if a four old boy say he wants to be president 42 years down the road, he is runing for president doesnt that show he is destined to be president? oops
I'm sorry, but the IOWA caucus is a JOKE.  Look that the process and the rules and tell me that it isn't the most manipulative thing going. Hell, if you are just 17 but will be 18 when the general election is held you are permitted to caucus.  There is so much ability to essentially buy off every vote in the state and that is what the money rich campaigns are doing.  Obama can't win outside of IOWA because his money and organization cannot manipulate the vote like they can in IOWA.   That is why Clinton is the better general election candidate. Wake up Obamites or we will end up with another Republican and all those wonderful Supreme Courts judges that will send us back to the 19th century.
Roger, Orland,FL (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 3:20 PM)

-------------------------------------------------
I agree Iowa is a joke.  All the anti posts here are all from repuglcans.  The trolls do the dirty work day after day for the rnc and the worst is they have to pretend to be Dem's, must pay well .
Politics, a curse and a pyrrhic system.
This has been one heck of a time for Hillary......

attacks Obama for having a PAC, then we learn she got money from it....

her husband contends he was against the war all along, yet the facts shows he backed the President.....

Some nutjob takes people hostage in her offices.....

She takes some quotes from Obama about wanting to be president when he was 4 years old....

and it's only Monday.....


jerry/corpus christi texas (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:25
-----------------

Just do what I do, Jerry. Keep thinking to yourself "one more month of Hillary. One more month of Hillary." It is like the Wizard of Oz, afterall, and she's the Wicked Witch of the West in this dream sequence...
Mike, no i won't vote for Hillary, i would vote for a Republican before i vote for Hillary (and i am hoping that Huckabee gets the nomination). Take it how you want to take it. It is what it is.
So it's ok for everyone and their dog to attack Hillary's character, but somehow it's not a legitimate question to ask who this Obama guy is anyway?  This if how GW got elected, by not asking the real questions.  You think the Republicans are not going to ask questions about Obama's character?
if you can't find anything more meaningful to post than pre-historic poll numbers in an attempt to pump up the hillary, don't post anything, hillary ain't going to win and edwards is still very much a possibility much to your dismay

MK,MO (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:14 PM)


Nice to see that you're arguing about polls now rather than against them...Here are the polling and end dates for the most recent polls. The Iowa Univ. numbers aren't available yet.

DMR poll 11/25-28 end date 11/28
ARG      11/26-29 end date 11/29
RAS      11/26-27 end date 11/27
Pew      11/07-25 end date 11/25
SV       11/23-25 end date 11/25

Which poll is pre-historic? There is a four day difference between the end dates for the polls with the ARG poll having the latest end date.
Dates for all the polls can be found here;
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

(Even though I post these links most every morning, so many seem unwilling or unable to follow a link before treating everyone to their half-baked analysis.)

The polls all indicate that the race is a close contest between the top 3. As an Edwards supporter, what can he do to keep his name in the news and not be crowded out by all of the Clinton v. Obama coverage?
I know you hate Clinton, but Edwards CAN'T be third in the caucus if he wants to go forward, and that means that he must defeat one or both of them. How's he do it?


Van
vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:36 PM)

----------------

Hey van. Even the First Read article mentions that the dates of THIS specific poll began on 11/5. There's been a debate and a lot of other crap said and done since a lot of those people were polled. Given what I read on MSNBC last night, it appears that Obama, not Hillary, is leading Iowa at the moment.
Obama is a phony - NOT a populist!
Obama voted to - confirm Condi Rice, voted FOR more NAFTA via the Oman FTA last year and supports the Peru FTA!!
Obama endorsed and campaigned for Joe Lieberman - and as soon as he was elected to the senate, Obama began voting FOR every war funding bill for a war he supposedly "opposed." He suddenly began voting against war funding when he became a presidential candidate.

Corporate lobbyists and PACs have funded Obama's political career from Illinois to the Senate. But he stopped taking their money in 2007 when he became a presidential candidate. ha! as if they won't remember who paved his way.

Anita, Savannah, GA (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 1:41 PM)

---------------

And I am sure you'll provide us with the appropriate links to legitimate websites that'll verify your allegations and mud-slinging, right?
Besides, didn't MSNBC have as one of its top headlines last night that the present leaders in Iowa are Obama and Huckabee?
So it looks like the Cylons have found their candidate!  
sierra, i know you like to lie,it's a gop trait, and explains your support of obama but why not be honest for once in your life?


sierra, glad to see you quote a republican idiot (points of lights, Raygun) ,proving again that obama supporters are truely republicans who want to keep the democrats out of the white house
Chuck,San D. (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 3:17 PM)

---------------

Really? I'm an Obama supporter and it's to keep a Republican from calling 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue home for at least the next 8 years, if not longer.
So it's ok for everyone and their dog to attack Hillary's character, but somehow it's not a legitimate question to ask who this Obama guy is anyway?  This if how GW got elected, by not asking the real questions.  You think the Republicans are not going to ask questions about Obama's character?
DA (Sent Monday, December 03, 2007 3:45 PM)

--------------

You obviously haven't read the man's books or listened to him speak outside of the debates, or been to his website. Who he is is very much who you see in front of you campaigning.


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