First thoughts: 30 days to go
Posted: Tuesday, December 04, 2007 9:16 AM by Domenico Montanaro
Filed Under:
First Thoughts
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro
*** Thirty days to go...: ...until Iowa, where most of the Democratic candidates participate in the NPR/Iowa Public Radio debate… Plenty of news today about Hillary blasting Obama -- yet Obama not necessarily fighting back… Bill Clinton returns to the trail… And Bush holds a news conference this morning, where he’ll likely receive numerous questions about the National Intelligence Estimate’s conclusion that Iran stopped its nuclear program in 2003.
*** Is Iran off the table? Back in October, after Bush warned in a press conference that a nuclear Iran could spark World War III, we wondered if Iran was becoming the new Iraq -- and if that could possibly help the Republicans in a general election, because it would allow them to talk about that and not Iraq. But does the new NIE throw cold water on that idea? What happens if Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney, or Fred Thompson can no longer raise the specter of a nuclear Iran in a general election? That said, Iraq might not be as big of a problem for the Republicans as it was in the fall.
*** Third-party groups galore: With less than a month before Iowa, evidence of third party groups deciding to get involved in the caucuses is popping up all over the place. There are the expected players, like EMILY's List and AFSCME (whose TV ads in Iowa begin tomorrow) for Clinton and local SEIUs for Edwards. There’s also this pro-choice GOP group against Romney. And now, another third-party player is for Huckabee, while a Democratic group today introduces a TV ad attacking Hillary. Who else is going to jump in? If you thought keeping track of all the Democratic and Republican candidates was a challenge, just think about also keeping tabs on all of these interest groups. We're guessing that every day between now and January 3 will bring rumors of some new group.
***
No counterpunch: Yesterday, Clinton whacked Obama -- this time over his record in the Illinois state Senate. But a funny thing happened: Obama didn’t really punch back. One gets the sense that the Obama folks don't want the next three weeks to be about Clinton and Obama "trading" potshots, for fear it could tarnish his image more than it hurts Clinton. Voters may expect Clinton to get involved in a political back-and-forth and not punish her as strongly as they'll punish Obama if he appears to get too negative. Edwards has seen this movie before now, hasn't he? Of course, it looks like the press -- just look at today’s
New York Times and
Boston Globe -- might be providing the counterpunch for Obama.
*** Maybe video didn’t kill the radio star: Seven of the Democratic candidates -- Biden, Clinton, Dodd, Edwards, Gravel, Kucinich, and Obama -- participate in a debate in Iowa at 2:00 pm ET sponsored by NPR and Iowa Public Radio. This debate, hosted by NPR’s Robert Siegel, Michele Norris and Steve Inskeep, can only be accessed via radio or the Web. There are no time limits for answers, and the candidates will have the opportunity to ask their rivals questions. Don't expect too many fireworks in the debate. Think about who's listening to it -- it's probably potential Dem voters who will not like negative back-and-forths. The NPR wing of the Dem Party is Obama's base, though no Dem wants to be on the losing end of the wine and cheese caucus.
***
Guess who’s back… back again… Bill is back… tell a friend: Bill Clinton returns to the campaign trail, stumping today throughout New Hampshire (in Keene, Claremont, and Lebanon). And after making news during previous campaign stops -- saying that he opposed the Iraq war from the beginning, and lumping criticism his wife received to the Swift Boat attacks -- you can be sure that reporters will tape record and jot down everything he says. Joining Bill in stumping for a spouse in New Hampshire will be Michelle Obama, who does a roundtable with working women in Portsmouth.
*** On the trail: Elsewhere today, Giuliani raises money in DC; Huckabee campaigns in Iowa and began his day by calling into Don Imus’ radio show; McCain stumps in New Hampshire; Obama, after the NPR debate, holds rallies tonight in Grinnell and Iowa City; Paul appears on The View in New York City and later visits New Hampshire; Romney also is in New Hampshire; Tancredo unveils a new TV ad in Des Moines, IA; and Thompson is in South Carolina.
Countdown to Iowa: 30 days
Countdown to New Hampshire: 35 days
Countdown to Michigan: 42 days
Countdown to Nevada and SC GOP primary: 46 days
Countdown to SC Dem primary: 53 days
Countdown to Florida: 56 days
Countdown to Tsunami Tuesday: 63 days
Countdown to Election Day 2008: 336 days
Countdown to Inauguration Day 2009: 413 days
Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
