Holy %$&!

Posted: Friday, December 07, 2007 4:42 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: Democrats, Republicans

From NBC's Mark Murray
Forget Hillary vs. Obama, the Ron Paul revolution, and Rudy. Is the rise of Mike Huckabee becoming THE political story of 2007 -- at least as it stands right now?

The latest Newsweek poll of Iowa (conducted Dec.5-6), Huckabee is leading Romney by a whopping 22 points among likely GOP voters, 39%-17% -- with Thompson in third at 10%, Giuliani at 9%, and McCain at 6%.

In the Democratic race, the Newsweek poll (conducted of 673 Dem voters) has Clinton at 30% in Iowa, Obama at 29%, and Edwards at 21%.

*** UPDATE *** We compared apples and oranges above, due to the placement of the horserace numbers in the Newsweek story. If measuring likely voters -- as was done on the GOP side -- is the standard, then it's Obama 35%, Clinton 29%, and Edwards 18%.

The Clinton 30%, Obama 29%, and Edwards 21% is among registered voters.

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Comments

I guess now we know why Romney was a lil' testy . . .

Nashville_fan (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 4:52 PM)

Huckabee will not be the nominee. He let a rapist out of jail and then the rapist turned into a murderer. No way will he get my vote.

Jason Christian (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 4:54 PM)

I have already told you guys that Huckabee looks like an average Joe and he is a good alternative to both Giuliani and Romney. Romney is too programmed and Giuliani is nothing but media hype.

Democrats better watch out for the guy. I am sure they are paying attention. Democrats are doomed for the general election if they nominate Hillary Clinton because Huckabee is a viable alternative.

Huckabee is popular among the black voters and he is well known in the south

Bee (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 4:54 PM)

----- CLINTON SLEAZE FATIGUE WILL INVIGORATE GOP, DISPIRIT DEMOCRATS AND SINK DEMOCRATIC TICKET-----
-----EDWARDS/RICHARDSON TO WIN-----
It is possible that Senator Clinton is the best candidate. However, even though many may like the policies that Senator Clinton proposes, they should also consider her record, just as Senator Clinton insists.
.
The last Clinton Administration, when faced with the fact that protection rackets where assaulting, torturing and murdering people with poison and radiation, chose to avoid its responsibilities to incarcerate the criminals and to protect the citizenry.
.
Instead, they made a deal with the criminal gang stalker protection rackets to leave them alone and to consequently abandon the citizenry.
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Do we want a President who sells out the citizenry for votes?
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Do we want a President who sends a "crime does pay" message to society?
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Would you vote for a President who signed nonaggression deals with the KKKlan or the Nazi party? Gangs that torture with poison and radiation are much like the KKKlan and Nazi Party.
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We do not need a sellout President. We need a principled leader President.
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If you are one of the few who do not know what the above refers to, do a web search for "gang stalking" to see the tip of the dirtberg. Please do it before you decide to reply to my post. Here let me make it easy for you: http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=%22gang+stalking%22.

avraam jack, alexandria,va (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 4:54 PM)

Huckabee and Bill Clinton both grew up in the small town of Hope in Arkansas. Huckabee became governor right after Bill, a little wierd to say the least.

Please ask yourself how this is possible. The same way that Bush and Kerry are cousins.

They are pushing Huckabee because they know he cannot beat Hillary, only RON PAUL can beat the bitch.

Ron Paul Supporter (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 4:56 PM)

As an Obama's supporter in NH, i have seen Huckabee up close and i must say he is well liked. He speaks from the heart without a sound bite.

Watch him win IOWA, SC, and all other southern states. I am sure he will be a good alternative to Hillary Clinton if democrats nominate her.

Wake up Democrats and vote a candidates that can compete in all states.

Bee (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:01 PM)

Arkansas residents favor Hillary over Huck 4 to 1 http://dailyheadlines.uark.edu/11709.htm . Bring him on, regardless of the eventual Democratic nominee.

John B, Des Moines, IA (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:06 PM)

*washing Ron Paul Supporter's mouth out with soap* Show some respect, kid. She's a former First Lady and a Senator.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:09 PM)

Another poll proving that the Obama surge is a myth. He's behind everywhere even though he gets better press than Jesus Christ.

Dazed and Confused in DC (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:09 PM)

Clinton-30
Obama-29
Edwards-21

Obama and Clinton can afford to finish 2nd, and survive EVEN if they finish 3rd, but John has no such luxury. The one thing that all of the most recent Iowa polls show, besides the FACT that Huckebee is now a true contender for the republican nomination (and Rudy is sinking like a STONE), is that the race between the democrats is close, a virtual dead-heat, and that Edwards needs to regain some momentum if he is going to be able to stay in the contest after Iowa.

Van
(Don't get mad, I LIKE Edwards...)

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:09 PM)

I'm still rolling with laughter that Bee thinks Democrats would consider a social conservative (pro-live, no less) as a viable alternative to any Democrat.

Carrie, Eastern Iowa (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:09 PM)

Huckabee is the best chance the Republicans have at beating a Democrat, but look out for the Club for Growth crowd kicking probably their most likely candidate to win in the knees.

Jonas (Canton, OH) (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:16 PM)

What The Huck

I was searching for Ron Paul articles. Seems writers just add "Ron Paul" to get readers. I bet if this article didn't have Ron Paul's name, there wouldn't be a comment.

Jeanette Doney, Fort Bragg, CA (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:16 PM)

This poll was conducted with 540 voters, give me a break.

Tom, Sacramento (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:17 PM)

This just shows you that it's not only evangelical christians who are supporting him, unlike the media.

Anne, Des Moines IA (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:17 PM)

Huckabee has certainly burst onto the scene in a big way, fueled by puff pieces from the media. Could he fall just as fast? I certainly hope so. Rarely does such an unqualified dogmatic politician come into the national spotlight and have a real chance of winning in a general election. It's scary that a place like Iowa, with such incredibly low turnout and made up almost entirely of one group of people (Evangelicals) is taken seriously as a filter for these candidates. I still think Mitt will narrowly take the caucuses but either way Huckabee will not win the primary and could never win in the general. This boom will be a bust in a few weeks.

txindep, Austin, TX (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:19 PM)

Keep the Huckabee momentum going - donate now!

https://www.mikehuckabee.com/index.cfm?FuseAction=Contribute.Home&r=36

Thaddeus, Columbus, oh (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:24 PM)

I believe the last Newsweek Iowa poll conducted from 9/26-9/27 hasdHillary at 24% and Obama at 28% - so she'e gained 6% since then. Maybe it's Hillary who's surging?

csh, IL (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:27 PM)

As a young voter, I'm absolutely astonished and depressed at the prospect of a Huckabee candidacy.

Why can't anyone just say it? He's simply not smart enough to be president. "I'm not an expert on foreign policy, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express last night?" When the next defining issue hits this country, don't we want a person with the competence to handle the most difficult job in the US - the role of president?

I'm abolutely incensed that Evangelicals would support a "Christian leader" over Romney, a Harvard JD/MBA once called "the smartest businessman in America." In no other industry (execpt maybe president of a Baptist church) would such a selection be even considered. That says more about the voters, and the future of this country, than it does about the candidates in this race.

Outraged, Ann Arbor, MI (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:28 PM)

I'm still rolling with laughter that Bee thinks Democrats would consider a social conservative (pro-live, no less) as a viable alternative to any Democrat.

-----------------------------------------------
Wait till you see. I heard the same thing when you guys nominate Al Gore and John Kerry. The problem with you democrats is that you are so corky and thinks every one votes on issues.

George Bush won because he was liked in the hot land and John Kerry lost because he wasn't liked. Likeability matters during the election and sometimes trumps issues.

The last democrats (Clinton and Carter) that won the white house were well liked. This election is for democrats to loose but America is waiting for who they will nominate.

Bee (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:31 PM)

Although the polls are all over the place. Right now, according to Rasmussen Reports, in Arkansas Huckabee polls at 48% vs. Clinton 42%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2008__1/2008_presidential_election/arkansas/arkansas_2008_presidential_election

Michael P., Little Rock, AR. (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:31 PM)

Huckabee, winning a conservative poll? What planet are we on?

Huckabee, the man who never met a tax he didn't like and approve of.

Huckabee, the man who had as his Lt. Governor a vehemently pro-choice candidate.

Huckabee, the man who has been caught lying on camera, more than once.

Huckabee is closer to a Giuliani Light than a conservative. His liberal track record is proven, his words now meaningless. The only positive light that I see on Huckabee is that he doesn't own a Middle East security company like Giuliani does. Other than that, I seriously hope that voters there don't punch his name.

A.B. Dada (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:31 PM)

Jason Christian-
Please learn the facts of the Wayne Dumond case. It's not as simple as you think it is. Once you do, you wont blame the issue on Huckabee.

Let the truth speak for itself.

jt, okc (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:32 PM)

Newsweek doesn't seem to offer any polling details. For instance, since Ron Paul got 0%... was his name included in the poll? It seems unlikely to me that he would get 0%.

Tim, CT (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:37 PM)

jt, okc

Just the opposite - the Huck stated publicly that he intended to commute the sentence then according to parole board members he asked that they consider paroling him as an alternative to the commutation. His attempts to fudge reminds me of slick willy.

rob (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:38 PM)

According to realclearpolitics it's Obama 35% Clinton 29%. If my numbers are correct, please change the entry.

Michael, Buffalo, NY (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:41 PM)

rob (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:42 PM)

Among those most likely to attend the caucuses, Obama has moved substantially ahead of Clinton, 35 percent to 29 percent, while Edwards falls back a bit, to 18 percent. Obama also gets more support from those who say they will "probably" attend a Democratic caucus (40 percent vs. 27 percent for Clinton

I think most of you are over looking a key fact in the newsweek poll

Lyn, MD (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:42 PM)

The contrast between Huckabee and Romney in terms of their religious belief makes me re-think assumptions I have made in the past concerning the importance of having a Christian president, and just what makes one a Christian.

If it is true that a religious test should not be required of a president, would I vote for an atheist? What about a Muslim?

Shy away from the word cult if you must, the Mormon religion is at the very least a very different religion than Christianity, with a different God, and a different Christ. Much like Islam, where Christ was just another prophet like Mohammed, (or Joseph Smith).

Kennedy's religion, Catholicism, at least shared the same concept of God, and the reality that He dwelt among us in Christ. Protestants and Catholics disagree as to "authority" (Scripture vs Church), but they at least share the same view concerning the identity and character of God.

Regardless, I have to admit that if Romney were Baptist, and Huckabee was a Mormon, I think I would vote for Huckabee.

I find it easy to rationalize inner contradictions because I LIKE Mike Huckabee.

Religion aside, Mitt just seems... too smooth, too Clintonesque.

Mike wears boots. Mitt wears flip flops.

Mike is the real deal. If I did not KNOW that he was a former preacher, I would not have guessed it. He could have been Jewish, or agnostic. There are good people in all faiths, and Mike is just one of them....a good, honest man.

So, there you have it. I like Mike anyway. The fact that he is a Christian is a bonus!

http://www.myspace.com/whyilikemike

Duane Schwingel, Chiefland, FL (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:44 PM)

Michael -- it's Obama 35% Clinton 29% among most likely voters...among Democratic voters, it's Clinton 30% Obama 29%. For more on the poll, click on the link... Thanks for the feedback.

Mark Murray (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:46 PM)

I just don't see how social conservative will vote for Rudy or Mitt, It is just impossible. If I were Romney, I’ll concentrate on beating Rudy in all the North East states and the mid west states like MI, IL, IN. Mitt and Rudy should forget about the southern states because it belongs to Huckabee and Thompson.

McCain only has a short in NH.

Bee (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:46 PM)

I think that they should be clear it appears that 30-29 number for hillary os registered voters not likely caucus goers that number is very different:

Among those most likely to attend the caucuses, Obama 35 Hillary 29...

The question is why are they showing a registered voters poll

Lyn, MD (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:46 PM)

First Read You need to change this poll results for the Democratic race. While it is true of "registered voters" Senator Clinton has a one point lead over Senator Obama (30 to 29) amongst "likely voters" Senator Obama has a six point lead over Senator Clinton (35 to 29). This is from the Newsweek poll:

Unlike the GOP race, standings in the Democratic campaign have not changed dramatically since the September NEWSWEEK poll in Iowa. However, Barack Obama has gained some ground, moving to within a point of Hillary Clinton among all Democratic voters (29 percent vs. 30 percent), with John Edwards in third place at 21 percent. Among those most likely to attend the caucuses, Obama has moved substantially ahead of Clinton, 35 percent to 29 percent, while Edwards falls back a bit, to 18 percent

MK, Los Angeles, California (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:50 PM)

No, Huckabee is not the story of 2007. He offers all of the exact same things the other neoconservatives do, except he's got a smile and a homegrown talking style that will make you easily overlook that he'll continue to wage war on the Middle East, and put cancer patients in jail for smoking medicinal marijuana. His fundraising is in the shitter, and the only reason Huckabee is a story is because the MSM and the Christian Right say so.

Paul (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:51 PM)

I believe the last Newsweek Iowa poll conducted from 9/26-9/27 hasdHillary at 24% and Obama at 28% - so she'e gained 6% since then. Maybe it's Hillary who's surging?
csh, IL
------------------------------------------------------

Another Spin from Hillary's machine. What plannet did you come from?

Lek (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 5:53 PM)

Fools And Their Rights Are Soon Parted.

I vote for Virtue; I Vote For Ron Paul !!!

Brad Mesa AZ (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:02 PM)

Csh...you might want to check the latest updates its really Obama 35 Clinton 29 among caucus goers

Van...is this the 30% mark once again you wondered when he would hit...(2nd) poll

grace, (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:04 PM)

The media has got to start giving Huckabee the treatment of all the other leading candidates, of both parties. Can you imagine, in your wildest nightmares, what the press would have done if TWO DAYS after the release of the NIE Obama or Hillary had said, "Huh? Sorry, haven't read it. Didn't know it came out." I shudder to think. Huckabee doesn't have a clue... aw, isn't that charming. Such a fun-loving guy. What does he think about the Old Testament again?

cms (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:04 PM)

Michael -- after reading the Newsweek piece again, we updated the post and put those likely numbers in. Thanks for the feedback.

Mark Murray (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:11 PM)

Duane,

The fact that you think Mormons equate Jesus with other prophets as Muslims do shows how poor a judge you are of Mormon theology. You can be biased against a candidate for any reason you want, but you're propping up a guy with some major issues in a general election. No one with a Fair Tax platform can win a general election. Look for Huckabee to back away from that soon (which I think he has already begun to do). If you can't vote for Mitt, at least have the good sense to vote for McCain. He doesn't bring as much to the table as Mitt does, but at least he brings something. Huckabee is totally unqualified.

Mike, Austin, TX (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:12 PM)

hallelujah, there can only be one reason this is happening, it's beyond human understanding. Go Huckabee! Who woulda thought he would be up by 20 points in Iowa.

SouthernC (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:24 PM)

Hey Hillary keep up the negative attacks...they are really working for you LOL

Mike (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:32 PM)

Csh...you might want to check the latest updates its really Obama 35 Clinton 29 among caucus goers

Van...is this the 30% mark once again you wondered when he would hit...(2nd) poll

grace, (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:04 PM)

Newsweek had Obama ahead in their last poll 9/26-27
Obama-28, Clinton-24, which was an outlier then.
)
Clinton leads 30-29 among Iowa voters (sample size=673 MOE=5%), Obama leads, 35-29 among, "self-described", likely caucus-goers. (N = 395 likely Dem caucus-goers (MOE: plus or minus 6)
That's a 6% and a 5% margin of error. I personally don't consider a poll with an MOE over 3.5% or a sample below 600 to be reliable.
So congratulations on pulling 35% in a poll of 395 people with a 6% MOE.

Clinton still leads among DEMOCRATIC voters (though within the MOE), and in the larger sample, but kudos to the many Obama supporters who lobbied for the, "likely caucus-goers", totals to be posted.

The 30% figure (and I believe I said that until he did reach it, he wasn't really a serious contender.) referred to NATIONAL polling, BTW, but it's gratifying to see how much you took my one-time comment to heart.
It would be nice to get a reasoned response from you based on the polling data, and I'd like to think of myself as an optimist, but I'm not betting the house on it.

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:39 PM)

And yet ANOTHER poll...

Edwards' Internal Poll Shows Three-Way Tie

A new internal poll for the presidential campaign of former Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) shows the race in Iowa a three-way dead heat with just 27 days left before that state's crucial caucuses.

The survey, which was completed by Edwards pollster Harrison Hickman on Wednesday night, shows Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) leading among likely caucus participants with 27 percent, followed by Edwards at 24 percent and Sen. Barack Obama with 22 percent. The race is even tighter when only definite caucus participants are included -- with Clinton at 26 percent, Edwards at 25 percent and Obama at 23 percent.

"When sampling error is taken into account, support for the top three candidates is so close that it is impossible to distinguish among them with the commonly accepted level of statistical confidence," writes Hickman in the polling memo.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com/thefix/2007/12/edwards_internal_poll_shows_th.html?nav=rss_blog

The one thing that IS clear is that it's a close race in Iowa right now...

Van

vanreuter, NY NY (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:43 PM)

Between Obama rising in all the early state polls and overtaking Hillary in Iowa and SC plus this weekend the big Oprahpalooza, I look for Clinton to do something really nasty to Obama.

diane (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:46 PM)

You've got the story completely wrong. For experts, you guys are pretty lame. I don't know how you have jobs.

Huckabee coming up in the poll means nothing. The real story is the legions of Ron Paul supporters. They've raised almost $11 this quarter and will probably raise more than the $4.3 million they raised in a single day on their next big fundraising day on December 16th.

I think it's important to note that this is the same poll that has Ron Paul at 8%, beating McCain-- which MSNBC, Chris Matthews on live TV, and Newsweek failed to report.

This is the same McCain that has been out fundraised by Ron Paul in the past 2 quarters. Why do you even mention McCain anymore? It's obvious he's not going to make it. Ron on the other hand is gaining ground every day. Why aren't you reporting on him? You need to.

Get it right, please.

You aren't doing enough for somebody that has visibly more people on the ground and a sizable amount of cash in the bank.

B Reyes (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 6:48 PM)

Nice try, NBC's Mark Murray.

John, Ann Arbor, MI (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 7:08 PM)

mike says: "Hey Hillary keep up the negative attacks...they are really working for you LOL"

Hillary has some of the highest negative ratings for a candidate EVER. She brings out the worst in people.

Sara Brown, East St. Louis (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 7:43 PM)

More journalistic malpractice from the disingenuous *NBC propaganda machine. Why skip Ron Paul's poll results that at 8%, were 2 points higher than McCain's?

Putrid slime!

Rolland (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 7:51 PM)

MIKE HUCKABEE IS A FAKE HE RAISED TAXES AND GAVE AMENSTY TO ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS AND TAKES MONEY FROM LOBBYISTS

JE (Sent Friday, December 07, 2007 8:00 PM)

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