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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

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Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Holy %$&!

Posted: Friday, December 07, 2007 4:42 PM by Mark Murray
Filed Under: ,

From NBC's Mark Murray
Forget Hillary vs. Obama, the Ron Paul revolution, and Rudy. Is the rise of Mike Huckabee becoming THE political story of 2007 -- at least as it stands right now?

The latest Newsweek poll of Iowa (conducted Dec.5-6), Huckabee is leading Romney by a whopping 22 points among likely GOP voters, 39%-17%  -- with Thompson in third at 10%, Giuliani at 9%, and McCain at 6%.

In the Democratic race, the Newsweek poll (conducted of 673 Dem voters) has Clinton at 30% in Iowa, Obama at 29%, and Edwards at 21%.

*** UPDATE *** We compared apples and oranges above, due to the placement of the horserace numbers in the Newsweek story. If measuring likely voters -- as was done on the GOP side -- is the standard, then it's Obama 35%, Clinton 29%, and Edwards 18%.

The Clinton 30%, Obama 29%, and Edwards 21% is among registered voters.

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i'm pretty sure ron paul was at 8% in that poll, wonder why he was left off...
Duane,
You are a wing nut!!. You clearly don't know Mormon doctrine so leave that alone in your posts. For the record Mormons believe Jesus is and was the Son of God. He is God. He is not just a prophet to Mormons. This is what infuriates us and also why there should be no religious test as the Founders knew there would always be questions about people's beliefs. Lets talk about the issues. I seriously don't think people look at Mitt's record and just pick up the MSM lines they hear out there. For one, he has been "personally pro-life" (as is Harry Reid) his whole life but in '94 ran to protect the law that was on the books and that is why he says he was "effectively pro-choice". This was also 13 years ago people! He changed to a pro-life stance not just last year but the first year he became Gov and had to sign his first bill regarding this topic and could no longer be pro abortion. Shouldn't we be welcoming those that come over to our side?? Isn't that what we are trying to do with everyone and yet for Mitt we want to pound him into the ground about it. So he never flip-flopped. He changed his mind ONCE. Look back over your life and see if you've ever changed your stance or views on anything in the last 15 years? How many people voted for Perot in '92? Reagan's record wasn't always conservative as president and I think he was our greatest president. Mitt has a ton of support over here from the troops and we all look forward to calling him our Commander-in-Chief by Jan 2009. The man is truly conservative if we take off our religion blinders. Yes, I am also religious and attend church weekly but I am voting on a president not my pastor/minister/bishop/elder, etc.
Ron Paul got 8% in this poll beating McCain.  Unfortunately, Newsweek decided to hide this fact in their own reporting.  Apparently, MSNBC didn't notice Newsweek's omission either.
The problem with Mr. Huckabee is that he is a tax raiser, soft on immigration, and a big government statist for all the wrong reasons (food police is just the tip of the iceberg).  Granted Mr. Huckabee is better than Rudy or Romney, but now we're just back in "lesser of two evils" territory.

If you want a true conservative who believes in the Constitutional limits of government all the time, not just when it is politically expedient, then you should consider supporting Ron Paul.  Ron Paul is the first politician in decades who does more than pay lip service to the Constitution and the rule of law.

I'm not going to say that I know Ron Paul will win, but I'm very suspicious of the "scientific" polls right now.  Ron Paul attracts as much money as any other Republican candidate, but he raises almost all of it from individual doners rather than the rich and special interests.  He has won a majority of straw polls which illustrate that his base is mobilized and willing to go vote.  He draws large crowds where ever he goes, which illustrates again the motivation of his base.  It seems to me that if hundreds of thousands of people are willing to donate time and money they will also come vote; probably in sufficient numbers to make Dr. Paul the GOP nominee.  

One last note; while the conventional candidates have spent their last gasp on Iowa and New Hampshire Dr. Paul is already running a national campaign.  His success does not hinge on anything that happens before super Tuesday.
How convenient to leave out Ron Paul. He got 8 percent. He is higher than John McCain and right behind Rudy yet you omit him. That's pure crap right there. You guys should be ashamed.
Huck will not get a free ride from his party, the long knives are coming out, Huck will get skinned alive, I think the establishment of the repubs are going to get behind the northeast bluebellie banker type, Romney, Fred and Huck will fight for the confederacy, Paul will bleed the semi-skinhead vote from them all and Rudy will go to jail!
John McCain will save the party from itself and lose to anyone but THE HILL or OBAMA!
I figured that since everyone loves to predict the future, I would try it out to see how it feels to be  prescient, and knowing the future, omniscient!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:;)GO JOE OR JOHN,
Sorry Dennis:(
Chris, EHHH! It feels like your owed or something!
TO CLINTON'S SUPPORTERS:
I have one question, and one question only.
Before the question, here is the preamble;
The Michigan Democratic Party moved their primary way ahead.  We all know this.   Every Democratic candidate vowed not to campaign there unless they stop their decision.  Obama, Edwards, and Richardson all agree to pull their names off of the ballots.
The Michigan Democratic party goes ahead with their plans, and now has Hillary Clinton running practically by herself.   Kucinich and Gravel don't count as opposition.

My question to all true supporters of Hillary Clinton, and please make an effort to answer this truthfully;
Why do you think Hillary Clinton refused to withdraw her name from the Michigan primary?
another update... according to RCP... Ron Paul got 8%... ahead of McCain's 6% and behind Rudy's and Fred's 9 & 10%... though Newsweek appeared to ignore Dr. Paul... you just reported their reporting.  (btw, RCP had a 0 last night... but updated it today)

Interesting thing for you to consider...

a few weeks ago, FR and the punditocracy were saying the "real" contest in Iowa was for third.

But if Ron Paul takes third, will it no longer matter?  Wouldn't that be fun?  A third in Iowa and a first in New Hampshire?

Fred and Rudy may be out of this thing by Michigan.
With all due repsect to Mike Huckabee, he has failed to raise in one YEAR what Ron Paul raised in one DAY.
Where are all the videos of huge crowds at Huckabee events?
Huckabee is a manufactured candidate to try and appeal to the same voters that Ron Paul would appeal to.
The establishment is not for the people, they are for the status quo, unfortunately the people are waking to the fact that we can't have a welfare/warfare state without giving a majority of our earnings to the government. Ron Paul 2008
With all due repsect to Mike Huckabee, he has failed to raise in one YEAR what Ron Paul raised in one DAY.
Where are all the videos of huge crowds at Huckabee events?
Huckabee is a manufactured candidate to try and appeal to the same voters that Ron Paul would appeal to.
The establishment is not for the people, they are for the status quo, unfortunately the people are waking to the fact that we can't have a welfare/warfare state without giving a majority of our earnings to the government. Ron Paul 2008
I am so sick of stupid white men in the media talking about Huckabee.  What he may have done to sway the parole board in the Dumond case and then lie about it makes me sick!  So to all of the STUPID white MEN at MSNBC, CNN, ABC, CBS, el al, I ask you...do you care about women and what this man subjected us to?  His lack of ability to be honest disqualifies him.  I find this man to be truly reprehensible, and I find any other man that speaks of him in a positive light to fall into that category as well.  This is not the type of man I want to be in charge of the Executive Branch of our Government.  That is the branch responsible for enforcing our laws; since most of you media pundits have forgotten.
Did know one see that he let a rapist free from prison?  The woman pleaded with him not to let him go and that he'll do it again, but what does he do???  Huckabee is also very liberal when it comes to tax and spend.  He's far from a fiscal conservative raising more taxes in Arkansas than Bill Clinton.  I suppose this is why liberal might like him.

I'm sorry but I'll have to choose someone else.
Well this makes sense.  In a year featuring some of the most appalling politicos in recent memory (and that's saying something), Huckabee surges.

The hands down scariest, trample the Constitution underfoot, open border, big government red state fascist freak that the GOP can come up with.

Mencken said it best: "the common people know what they want, and deserve to get it good and hard".


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