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First Read is an analysis of the day's political news, from the NBC News political unit. First Read is updated throughout the day, so check back often.

Chuck Todd, NBC Political Director

Mark Murray, NBC Deputy Political Director

Domenico Montanaro, NBC News Political Reporter



Down the ballot: LA, OH, and VA

Posted: Monday, December 10, 2007 9:04 AM by Mark Murray
Filed Under:

House Republicans were dealt another blow when Louisiana Rep. Jim McCrery (R) announced Friday he would not seek re-election. Can the GOP keep their retirements to less than two dozen? They are creeping toward 20 now -- and there's still another three to four retirement months left. The good news on the McCrery retirement: The GOP should have a fairly easy time holding the seat. Still, it sends a negative message that veteran Republicans aren't interested in sticking around.

By the way, keep an eye on Mitch McConnell's re-election bid. He's worried enough -- or at least not taking any chances -- to be launching TV ads now, rather than waiting for a challenger to give him problems.

If Democrats can win a special congressional election tomorrow in a GOP district in Ohio, doesn't that tell us that Ohio may not be as in play as the Republicans would like to believe for 2008? As the Washington Post's Cillizza noted on Sunday: "Despite the heavy spending, strategists for both parties sought to play down expectations in advance of the vote. Republicans noted that Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D) carried the 5th District in 2006. Democrats pushed back, arguing that the very fact that House Republicans are being forced to spend from their very limited war chest is a victory. Should Latta lose, which remains unlikely, it would be a powerful symbolic blow for House Republicans seeking to reassure their members that 2008 won't be a repeat of 2006."

Meanwhile, in the Virginia House special that takes place this week, Politico reports on how the GOP is using Hillary Clinton as a way to attack the Democrat.

Overall, Republicans are favored to hold both seats, but the margins will be worth studying as both districts are in states where the Republicans may be in trouble for 2008.

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The GOP ( Gay Ole Pedophile)party see's the writing on the wall. Good riddance to them.Their Family values SCHEME was finally laid bare last year. How any working person could consider themselves Republican is beyond me?You so-called Christain Fanatics got what you paid for!! Nothing in return for your investment. Roe v Wade was Not overturned, as you were promised, No Constitutional admendment saying marriage was between 1 man & 1 woman, No ban on gay right's. NADA, NOTHING, you got Zilch.Hope you're happy, because i'm tickled to know, you're involvment in American politic's will forever be known as The Worst in American History. Thank You, Thank You, Thank You!!!!

" DELUSIONAL THINKING BY COMMON SENSE AMERICAN'S IS OVER"
Considering that the people of Louisiana watched as the democrats screwed up the katrina response royally with the actions of their own people, i think it safe to say the people will not vote for another democrat, unless you are living in New orleans.
Rick,

The education system has failed you badly.  If you want to be persuasive, you must be able to spell correctly and use at something close to proper English.

People on your side of the issues should be embarrassed that you are their spokesman.

Finally, you are a perfect example of delusional thinking, although I would never call you a "common sense American."
I may be wrong about this, but it seems like who ever carries Ohio always wins the election. Ohio is a very split state. Columbus south to Cincinnati is mainly republican. From Columbus north to Cleveland democrates control. I believe with all the jobs lost and forclosures in this state, Ohio will vote democratic.
I believe with all the jobs lost and forclosures in this state, Ohio will vote democratic.

Could it be because a democratic presidential runner (Kuncinich) is running for president and has forgotten that he needs to care of business at home first?

Ohio has voted democratic.....
things are not getting much better....
Todd you are a FOOL, pure and simple.  A person need not be grammatically correct to be persuasive.  It is the tenor of a person's argument that makes them persuasive, not their spelling or use of punctuation.  Critisizing someone's spelling and use of English is rude.  You should be ashamed of yourself. But I doubt if you are capable of feeling shame.

"If you want to be persuasive, you must be able to spell correctly and use at something close to proper English. "

Um, "...use at something"????  

Not only is that sentence wrong in its meaning, but, it is poorly constructed, uses a non-sensical word construction, and is missing punctuation.  It appears to be obvious that Louisiana schools failed you.  In 8th grade California schools, you would have gotten a D-.

Louisiana is turning the corner. . .the winds of change are blowing.  The McCrery seat is either Jerry Jones's (Shreveport Attorney), Chris Gorman (Entreprenuer) or Sheriff Steve Prator's to lose.  No democrat will be elected in that Republican horse race.  My bet is Jones or Gorman - either would be fine with me.
J.D. you have constructed a beauty of a run-on sentence in your comment. California would give you a D- in 8th grade English.

What is worse, you area hypocrite regarding criticism of a person's English. Why don’t you bust out that mirror and take a good long look.
As I read the bickering in the comments, it enforces what I now know.  We need to stop being blue and red and become Americans.  
After I watched Ken Burns' The War, I realized I have never lived in a united country.  This fighting started in the 60's and continues to this day.  I'm concerned that the only thing that will cross this divide is an attack on this country.  Democrats may need to accept we need to drill for oil in this country and Republicans may need to realize gay people are no different than anyone else and should have the same legal benefits as anyone who is straight.  We need to find compromise and turn the clock back to a time that was civil and respectful.


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